Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Mackenzie Dern (-190) vs. Angela Hill (+150)

Dern: DK: $9.1k | Almeida: DK:$7.1k

As a girl-dad, I hope my lil’ girl grows up to be as deadly as these two ladies. With all the talk of a climate crisis and rising temperatures, the world has only grown colder. And the need to know how to defend yourself has never been greater. This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup; Mackenzie Dern is a lady in the streets and a freak on the mats, and Angela Hill is the De Niro in Heat most robbed fighter in UFC history and an elite striker despite what her record might suggest. Both fighters have areas of expertise, but this fight will test their overall MMA skills.

Makenzie Dern walks through the Gotham City subway with no worries. On some Dark Knight type-ish. Batwoman type-ish. She would triangle the Nightstalker, D’arce choke John Wayne Gacy, and Peruvian Necktie Ted Bundy. She is probably the best pure Jiu-Jitsu player ever to compete in women’s MMA. Mackenzie chains submissions together like Manny Pacquiao does combinations and ties you up in Boy Scout knots before your ass hits the mat. Dern will attack every limb, from ankle locks to chokes, and often controls entire rounds with her top control and constant submission attacks. When she gets you to the mat, you’re not getting back up. But her problem is getting you to the mat. She has Jitz takedowns and lacks traditional wrestling takedowns, doubles, singles, etc. When she can’t relocate the fight to the mat and gets stuck in a kickboxing match, she struggles heavily. Not quite as bad as Kron Gracie, but close.

Dern is limited on the feet. Although she doesn’t lack aggression, she throws nothing but sloppy wide hooks and overhands. She’s never thrown a jab or traditional cross in her life. Her striking is best suited for the daytime talk show circuit; she would run shit on the Jerry Springer show (R.I.P.). Dern needs to achieve the clinch to initiate takedowns, but she has trouble closing the distance. When you throw nothing but haymakers, opponents tend to retreat completely out of the pocket, leaving no opportunity to grab hold of them. If she learned how to throw a boxer’s jab and efficient 1-2, she might be the champ right meow. Angela Hill has quick straight punches, and she uses excellent lateral movement to stay on the outside; Dern’s biggest challenge will be cutting her off and getting close enough to get the clinch.

Angela Hill is in the San Diego Hall of Fame. She was inducted in the same class as Ron Burgundy. Win or lose, Angela Hill always represents. She is one of the most competitive women’s fighters in the game and never gets her ass completely kicked. Nobody has been robbed of more dubs by the trio of dead presidents at the infamous Valero in the Nevada desert than Angela Hill. Overkill Hill has always been just below the elite level, and she is one of the greatest women’s gatekeepers of all time. You can throw her in there with anybody on the roster, and she’ll be a tough out. 

When Angela loses, it’s usually due to a lack of takedown defense and the ability to get back to her feet. The keys against Dern will be her trademark lateral movement and fast hands in short combinations from the outside. Hill averages over five and a half significant strikes per minute and landed one hundred eighty-two in her last bout against Emily Ducote. Volume is her best weapon, and pushing a heavy pace that Dern won’t be able to keep up with. She needs to stay away from the cage and control the center while making sure not to retreat straight back when Dern throws those wild bombs.

Dern is the (-175) favorite, and Hill will be in her familiar underdog role at (+145). Against Virna Jandiroba, Hill showed improved takedown defense and submission defense but got drawn into too many grappling exchanges instead of focusing on getting back to her feet. If she can stay focused and shuck off Dern’s early takedown attempts, she will piece Dern up on the feet. That’s a big IF, though. This fight is now five rounds, and I have to think Dern will be able to get Hill to the mat at least once in twenty-five minutes. And one time is all it takes with Dern. But don’t sleep on the homie Angela Hill; she’s as live a dog as you can get, and she can ride her crispy striking to a dub if she can stay upright. A Dern submission will return (+175), and is likely her only path to victory. And a Hill decision will return (+200). Damn, this is another complete toss-up. Mackenzie Dern via armbar, round two. You know what to do with it. Put it on wax.

Winner: Makenzie Dern | Method: Armbar Rd.2

Edmen Shahbazyan (+185) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-230)

Shahbazyan: DK: $6.8k | Fluffy: DK: $9.4k

The first breakdown I ever wrote was for Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Derek Brunson. Looking back at it is like flipping through the pages of my high school yearbook twenty years later and feeling embarrassed for the kid with frosted tips, braces, and Payless Jordans, the ones with the assed-out naked Jumpman logo. I got suspended three times for dress code violations for rocking those. Back in August 2020, Shahbazyan was 4-0 in the UFC with three finishes, and I anointed him a future world champion. I was like Pedro Munhoz when he fought the Sugar Show, pretending I couldn’t see the red flags waving frantically as if caught in category-five hurricane winds when he fought Darren Stewart in his debut. The sus gas tank, the planet-swallowing black holes in his stand-up, and the worst coach in combat sports history in his corner yelling, “Head movement! Head movement!” were all there. But I chose to ignore it all. Brunny went on to KO Shahbazyan not once but twice.

Two fights later, Shahbazyan found himself mounted by Nassourdine Imavov in the second round and got hit with the ol’ *Record Scratch* *Freeze Frame*, “I bet you’re wondering how I got here.” It was like doing calculus, trying to figure out how a twenty-two-year-old kid could be at such a loss for stamina. Shahbazyan is the guy who only puts five dollars on pump six and has to stop three blocks later to siphon more. But why are you bringing up old shit? It’s 2023, and Shahbazyan is on the precipice of a winning streak. Last December, Big Ed got back to his winning ways with a TKO dub over Dalcha Lungiambula, and suddenly the sky isn’t the limit, but rather, the launching pad.

It was Shahbazyan’s striking that garnered all the attention during his original winning streak. He has tight, quick hands with fight-ending power in his right hand, and overall, looks technically pleasing to the eye. As long as Shahbazyan leads the dance and can dictate the pace, he’s a formidable striker. But defensively, Shahbazyan lacks honed reactions, head movement, and footwork. He’s got that Erik the Actor footwork. “I’m club f**kin’ footed, asshole!” Edmen’s only means of defense is to completely evacuate the pocket, which limits his ability to counter. He can only strike while moving forward, so the key is to keep him on his heels with pressure and volume. But if you stand in front of him, he can pick you apart with precise single shots from the outside while setting up his big right hand.

Shabazyan’s grappling is similar to his striking; all offense, no defense. He often uses his wrestling to bail him out on the feet when he’s taking damage or the gas needle starts to hover around E. From the top, Shabazyan is a position over submission grappler with groupie top control. He holds on for...

Dear Life,

Please don’t let this guy get up.

But he doesn’t defend takedowns as well as he initiates them, and he has a Fisher Price guard. He goes from assailant to victim real fookin’ quick. This will be Bad News Bears when it comes to fighting Fluffy Hernandez. Fluffy is a grappling Gandolf who can push a heavy MMA pace, transitioning from position to position seamlessly without breaks in the action. Shahbazyan has to take his chances on the feet against Hernandez. Hernandez is far from a chump on the feet, but he can get got. Edmen will have a distinct power advantage on the feet while being at a distinct technical disadvantage on the mat. For his career, Shahbazyan is 12-3 with ten TKO/KOs and one lonely-ass sub. He may lack stamina, but you can’t say he has trouble finishing.

Fluffy Hernandez is an ASMR sleeper. In 2021 he shoved a lightning bolt up Zeuce’s ass; he submitted the Jitz God, Rodolfo Vieira. Hernandez is a formidable mix of slick boxing on the feet and creative submission grappling on the mat. What makes him good is that he doesn’t have complete reliance on either one, which means he doesn’t have to force either one and can organically flow wherever the fight goes or wherever his advantages lie. On the feet, Fluffy has a little Matt Brown in him; he is nasty in the clinch, focusing heavily on causing damage with elbows and knees while looking for trips and level changes. He uses intermittent head movement, slips/rolls, but he stands tall in the pocket and tends to illicit 50/50 exchanges that he doesn’t always get the better of. But Fluffy has no reservations about standing and trading and often draws opponents into firefights, so he can use the chaos to level change.

Throw up the W. Protect Ya Neck! On the mat, Fluffy is a mother-shut-your-mouf. He has a knack for initiating scrambles and ending up in advantageous positions. Ask about Fluffy. He’s a hustla. He’s a he’s a hustla. Fluffy is a hustler, homie. You a customer, cronie. Hernandez is the kid who runs out infield pop flies all the way down the line. He doesn’t accept being on his back and out-scrambles and out-positions opponents. He’s a floater on top, allowing opponents to move underneath him while maintaining chest-over-chest position with little effort while hunting for necks. Demian Maia is the best ever at “floating” from the top position and letting opponents gas themselves while hopelessly looking for an escape. Fluffy’s grappling is the perfect mix of damage, advancing, and submitting. He will maintain control while delivering heavy ground and pound and overall leaves little dead air when he’s not striking or scrambling.

Fluffy’s path to victory will be on the mat and sapping Shahbazyan’s weed whacker gas tank in the clinch and against the cage. Pace will be Fluffy’s most important weapon. He can push a pace on the feet and mat that Shahbazyan can’t possibly keep up with. Fluffy can wrestle early and fall back on his striking late if he can’t find a submission. But the odds suggest Fluffy will find a submission. He is the (-285) favorite, and Shahbazyan is the (+225) dog. Have the Piso Mojado signs on deck. Shahbazyan can end this fight on the feet, especially in the early minutes. Fluffy tends to get a little too cute on the feet, and Shahbazyan has the power and hand speed to make him pay. The discrepancy comes from Ed’s gas tank and lack of defensive wrestling, while Fluffy averages six and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Also, seven of Fluffy’s ten career dubs came by submission, including five guillotines. A Fluffy submission will return (+200), and a Shahbazyan TKO/KO will return (+300). Fluffy Hernandez via guillotine, round two. Put that ish on wax.

Winner: Fluffy Hernandez | Method: Guillotine Rd.2

Emily Ducote (+120) vs. Lupita Godinez (-150)

Ducote: DK: $7.6k | Godinez: DK:$8.6k

This should be a wrestler vs. striker matchup, and every Lupita Godinez fight should be billed as such. The problem is, she’s a batting-average hitter who insists on taking nothing but homer run cuts. When the situation calls for a sacrifice bunt down the line to move the runner into scoring position, she ignores the sign and offers a Babe Ruth called shot to dead center. And, of course, there is no joy in Mudville—Mighty Loopy has struck out. When she wrestles, Loopy is a savage rolling heads down the side of an Aztec temple; when she strikes, she is the rolling head. Godinez will be up against the tepid striker Emily Decote, and this will be a golden opportunity for Loopy to ditch the Muay Thai shorts for the singlet and ear muffs.

I think Loopy Godinez can be a problem in the strawweight division, but in each of her last two fights, she has insisted on taking the Dommer Party horse and buggy path to victory in the middle of the winter instead of the plush forty-foot Winnebago up the PCH in the middle of the spring. What worries me about this fight is that Emily Ducote is a mild striker, and Loopy might talk herself into standing and trading with her because she won’t feel threatened. Loopy escaped with a split decision in her last bout against Cynthia Calvillo and recorded no takedowns, and lost a close decision to Angela Hill in a fight in which Hill attempted more takedowns than her. Loopy comes from a family of wrestling champions, both of her sisters are world-class world champions, and Loopy definitely has the rub. Against Ariane Carnelossi, Godinez showed dominant takedowns, top control, and ground and pound. With a little injection of that Merab blood, Loopy can be a real contender. If she insists on standing and trading, she’ll be another face lost in the crowd.

I say all that to say this: Loopy will have a power advantage on the feet; she has surprisingly heavy hands. But she’s a wrestler striker with limited weapons and massive defensive holes. Her game plan should be to commit to short, heavy combinations to close the distance and maintain top control. Don’t let the stats fool you; Emily Decote sports a one hundred percent takedown defense after defending eight takedowns in her debut against Jessica Penne. But Penne’s takedowns aren’t anywhere near the same level as Godinez’s.

Life’s a risk, carnal. The problem with Ducote is she doesn’t take enough. When I watch her fight, I don’t see any urgency. In this game, you have to fight as if your life is in danger. Ducote doesn’t; she’s the one patient in the dentist's waiting room who isn’t breathing in a paper bag. She’s the embodiment of the “Everything’s fine” dog meme where the building is on fire all around. It’s good to stay calm under pressure, but to me, it seems like she’s out of touch with her mortality. Overall, Ducote has crisp boxing and fight-ending naked round kicks, but she lacks power. Her best weapon is volume; she averages nearly six and a half significant strikes landed per minute and landed one hundred sixteen in her debut. Her value will be in high striking stats should Godinez abandon her wrestling once again. Godinez has hovered around the one hundred strikes mark in her last two bouts, and should that happen again, Ducote will put up solid Fantasy numbers even if she takes the L.

Godinez will be the (-145) favorite, and Ducote will be the (+120) dog. If there were no questions about Godinez’s fight IQ and she fought to her strengths consistently, she would be a (-500) favorite. But she doesn’t, and she isn’t. But she will be the better finishing threat should she get the fight to the mat and implement the ground and pound that put her on the map against Carnelossi. Ducote could turn out to be a valuable low/middle-tier roster option if she can discourage Loopy’s takedowns by defending them early. But I have to ride with Loopy; Lupita Godinez via decision. On wax.

Winner: Loopy Godinez | Method: Decision

Andre Fialho (+180) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-220)

Fialho: DK: $6.9 | Buckley: DK: $9.3k

Baby Sinclair, Andre Fialho, is back. He was caught sleeping on the job in his last two bouts and is now one write-up away from possible termination. If he even passes gas in the break room, he’ll get a call from HR. Fialho will be up against the most hated man in the UFC, Joaquin Buckley. Buckley filmed the pilot episode of his new show “Everybody Hates Joaquin,” and it has been reported that several major networks are fighting for its rights. There’s just something about Buckley that rubs everybody he comes across the wrong way. I feel a little affronted just writing about him. But dude owns one of the greatest KOs in UFC history and always shows up and throws down. This one right here will be an absolute banger for the short duration it will last.

Andre Fialho looks like he rocks speedos at the YMCA pool and just walks slow laps around the pool deck and never gets in the water. Fialho had a full career before making his UFC debut; he fought for Bellator several times as well as the PFL. He took the Jeep commercial path to the big show and had eighteen fights under his belt before stepping into the Octagon. He debuted against the Cirque du Soliel trapeze artist Michel Pereira and gave Pereira all he could handle on short notice. Baby Sinclair rebounded with a first round KO dub against the once highly touted Miguel Baeza but has recently fallen on harsh times and back-to-back TKO L’s.

Fialho is a meathead striker, and that doubles as a gift and a curse. He’s brawn over brains and will keep coming forward, even if it means running face-first into some bombs. Fialho is a notorious hooker, and I’m not talking Deuce Bigalow. Homie loves the lead hook like fat kids love cake. He leads with his hook like it’s a jab, the way Roy Jones Jr. used to. The problem is Fialho doesn’t have Roy’s speed. Ya’ll must’ve forgot. Without exceptional hand speed, you don’t want to make the lead hook a fundamental strike. Fialho uses it like a jab, but a hook can’t cover the same distance as a jab, and you have to load up on a lead hook, which makes it easier to counter. And getting countered is one of Fialho’s specialties. He takes an F ton of damage in a short period of time and usually can’t pass a sobriety test midway through the first round. But his hands are short and compact, and his freakish power translates until the final buzzer. It’s too late to change Fialho, so against Buckley, he’ll have to do what he’s always done; throw repeated 2-3s (cross-hook) until he or Buckley falls and can’t get up.

Joaquin Buckley is a Me Against the World fighter whose specialty is using his opponents' vitriol against them to make them fight out of character. Even the I-Robot Nassourdine Imavov was coaxed into fighting angrily and recklessly. I don’t know what Buckley says to his opponents on Twitter or at the hotel or at the press conference, but come fight night, there is never any love lost. Buckley is a horizontal power puncher, another hooker, with nothing but wide looping punches and sneaky head kicks. For all the gum bumpin’ Buckley does, he walks it like he talks it. He fights aggressively with no fear pumping through his veins. You can hate him, but you will also respect him after every fight. If there had been a fourth round against Imavov, Buckley would have stopped Imavov in that round. He just ran out of time after getting taken down and falling behind early in that fight.

Don’t look now, but Buckley also has some JV takedowns in his back pocket. He averages nearly one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to get Fialho to the mat early. Buckley used his wrestling against the dangerous power striker Abdul Razak Alhassan to drain some of Alhassan’s power by making him spend energy getting back to his feet. And as we know, the threat of the takedown can take your striking from Kron Gracie to Rodtang real quick. On the feet, Buckley will have more diverse attacks and better movement, and we know he has that Zero Dark Thirty Seal Team Six Belgium Malinois dog in him.

Buckley will be the (-215) favorite, and Baby Sinclair will be the (+175) flea-ridden dog. The Fantasy upside for Fialho is a TKO finish. Three of Buckley’s four UFC losses came via TKO/KO, including his most recent bout against Chris Curtis. Buckley’s upside will also be a finish; four of his five promotional wins came via TKO/KO, including the infamous Impa kick. Both fighters are moderate output strikers who will hover around the fifty strikes landed range should the fight go the distance. A Buckley TKO/KO will return (+105), and a Fialho TKO/KO will return (+300). Give me Joaquin Buckle via TKO, round two.

Winner: Joaquin Buckley | Method: TKO Rd.2

Diego Ferreira (-165) vs. Michael Johnson (+135)

Ferreira: DK: $8.7k | MJ: DK:$7.5k

Which of the following would describe this fight?

A.) Striker vs. Grappler

B.) Tortoise vs. The Hare

C.) Veteran vs. Veteran

D.) All of the Above

This one right here is a crunchy lil’ groove. Why? Because every fookin’ MJ fight is a banger, and you know what? So is every Diego Ferreira scrap. Win or lose, for better or worse, for richer or poorer, these guys uphold to the fullest their nuptials to the game. They’ll sell you a foot and deliver a mile, but they’ll never sell you short. Diego Ferreira is a grappling Merlin with Donkey Kong helter-skelter striking, and Michael Johnson is a People’s Champion, a veteran with a cape on, a super veteran, who, even after thirteen years in the promotion, hasn’t appeared to lose a step. This one will be Fast & Furious 11 and should end well before the allotted fifteen minutes.

MJ needs no introduction; he’s known for having possibly the fastest hands in the UFC, a title he has held for over a decade. Urban legend says MJ once wobbled Khabib on the feet with a searing left hand. I can’t attest to its validity, but I like to believe it’s true. MJ has wormhole hand speed, Farcaster hand speed, hands so fast they can travel lightyears in seconds and reverse time. And he’s long. Speed + length = Ass Whoopings. Any day of the week, I’d rather fight someone bigger and stronger than longer and faster. MJ can touch you from the outside with peppering singles shots and short combos while staying on his bike and circling on the outside. The biggest hole in his striking is his pocket exits. He exits the pocket passively, straight back with his head up and hands down, instead of stepping off at angles or rolling off his strikes. He tends to get clipped in every fight, and it’s usually at the end of a combination.

But the key, at least in the first round, will be MJ’s elite takedown defense. What makes his takedown defense so good is that he’s a natural counter striker. Pay close attention. MJ rarely leads the dance; he likes to counter the opponent’s first movements and beat them to the punch. Since he’s not the one moving forward, he stays in perfect position to sprawl. Speaking of sprawling, MJ has the best sprawl in the game. Maybe ever. He can get his hips to the mat and squash a double leg in the blink of an eye, and that’s a huge reason why he rocks an eighty percent career takedown defense like a pleather jacket with twenty zippers. If MJ can keep the fight standing and navigate around Ferreira’s wild power, he should be able to pick Ferreira apart down the middle and from the outside all night long.

That’s a big IF, though. Diego Ferreira is riding a three-fight skid like a faded patron on a mechanical bull, but don’t for a second think he has turned TLC scrub. For all my day-ones out there, Diego Ferreira has always reminded me of Hermes Franca, a long, loopy, sneaky dangerous striker with excellent Jiu-Jitsu. On the feet, Ferreira lacks basic fundamentals, and you could even say he’s sloppy on the feet, but that’s the good thing about MMA, you don’t need to be technically sound to have effective striking. You have to respect his long, whipping strikes because they have some hidden power that will sit you down real quick. He strikes like he’s hitting one of those Dave & Busters speed bags that measure your punching power. If he can’t score takedowns against MJ, he’ll pose a serious threat on the feet, but he tends to gas heavily, so he’ll have to fast-play this fight and try to create a fight-ending sequence in the first two rounds.

Ferreira’s recent troubles have come against elite wrestler/grapplers: Mateusz Gamrot, Gregor Gillespie, and Beneil Dariush. In those three fights, Ferreira was taken down thirteen times. In his last six scraps, Ferreira has only scored a takedown in one fight against Anthony Pettis in 2020. Although he has an H. H. Holmes house of horrors guard, Ferreira needs to establish the top position and not relent to kickboxing matches when he isn’t immediately successful. MJ will be in a world of trouble if Ferreira can get him on the mat. For his career, Ferreira is 17-5 with three TKO/KOs and seven subs, and he’ll be a HUGE submission threat any time he gets MJ’s ass on the mat. MJ has eighteen career losses, and noine, half for all those counting on their fingers, came via submission.

Diego Ferreira will be the (-165) favorite, and MJ will be the (+135) dog. Bring ‘em out, bring ‘em out! Bust out the Piso Mojado signs. I have a rule: I ALWAYS bet MJ at plus money. Plus money against a guy who tends to gas after five to seven minutes and for a guy who can defend takedowns. My Andy Jackson is face down, struggling for air. The play for Diego Ferreira is a win by submission (+215). If this one goes the distance, it will likely be MJ getting his hand raised. And an MJ finish on the feet will return (+275). I’m riding with one of my favorite fighters; call me a homer. Michael Johnson via TKO, round three.

Answer: D.) All of the Above

Winner: Michael Johnson | Method: TKO Rd.3

Maheshate Hayisaer (+135) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (-165)

Hayisaer: DK: $7.4k | Borshchev: DK:$8.8k

This will be an old school duel, take ten paces and turn around type duel. This will be like the 1700s when armies used to stand directly across from each other and take turns firing muskets and bowling balls at each other. These guys are going to stand in front of each other and take turns unloading hands and feets like a One FC Muay Thai bout. I can make such assurances because Maheshate Hayisaer and Viacheslav Borshchev aren’t very good wrestlers/grapplers, and if these two get to shooting doubles on each other, I’ll get to shooting my shot at Mary Jay in the Thunderdome. No, this one will be Johnny Ringo vs. Doc Holiday. The only question is, which one will be Doc Holiday?

“Why, Johnny Ringo, you look like someone just walked over your grave.”

Viacheslav Borshchev looks like a badass Walter White minus the off-white Fruit of the Looms. He looks like a guy who walks into a gym off the street and challenges the instructor. Except, instead of getting duffed out with the quickness, he whoops the instructor’s ass. Borshchev has a championship kickboxing background with an 18-2 career record. Viacheslav has tight, technical kickboxing that starts with his compact hand position. He keeps his hand guard high and tight like a military haircut. Because he keeps his hands tight to his face, there is no hitch/tell in his punches. There are two main types of hitches/tells when throwing hands: A hand hitch or a shoulder hitch. Often, fighters pull their hand back slightly to jump-start a punch to gain speed/power, or they propel the punch from the shoulder, creating a noticeable hitch/tell before the punch begins traveling forward. Borshchev’s hand position close to his face doesn’t allow for any room for a hand hitch, and he doesn’t have a natural shoulder hitch, so his strikes are hard to pick up on. Eliminating a hitch is a good way to enhance or make up for a lack of hand speed. Google Kimbo Slice and Jamal White. In that video, Jamal White explains the shoulder hitch to Kimbo.

Borshchev’s special power is getting taken down. He has an impressive knack for finding ways to end up on his back. In his last two bouts, Borschev was taken down twenty times, and he rocks a thirty percent takedown defense. And once he ends up on the mat, he has Charlie Z grappling; he gets his ass kicked until the onlookers start feeling a little guilty and break it up. If Viacheslav had to defend a takedown to save his life...

“We are gathered here today to remember Viacheslav Borshchev. He was a great man who was taken before his time.”

Liquor bottles are getting emptied. Maheshate hasn’t shown to be much of a wrestler himself, but even if his takedowns are a Madden 10, he should probably try to shoot a double. The draft from a cracked window can take down Viacheslav. Borshchev’s Fantasy value will be moderate fifty to sixty significant strikes with a fifty-fifty shot at a finish. He is 6-3 for his career with five TKO/KOs, but in eleven career fights, Maheshate has yet to get finished.

The jury is still out on how good Maheshate Hayisaer is. Offensively, his striking is nasty; he has an authentic Muay Thai style with the classic flatfooted, upright squared stance and a penchant for working his offense off the teep. He works the rear teep to establish range and thwart the opponent’s offensive attacks, then uses them to disguise step-in knees and elbows. The Electric Slide right-hand counter is his special move. He slides back out of the pocket and times a right hand as the opponent engages. It’s the counter Conor McGregor made famous against Jose Aldo. Maheshate’s best weapon is his piston right hand which doesn’t have one degree of curve in it.

Maheshate’s major malfunction is movement, or lack of. There are times when Maheshate has zero movement. I’m talking the Queen’s Guards movement. He won’t even crack a smile. He will stand motionless right in front of you and dare you to blink. Also, he stands tall in the pocket with his chin held high like a snob. He’s very hittable, and his style is very take-one-to-give-one, which means he’s always in close rounds. Also-also, his takedown defense was the last to be seen with the victim, suspect. He struggles with his back against the cage; he doesn’t pummel and use over/unders to turn and disengage. Bu that shouldn’t come into to play in this matchup.

Make no mistake, the game plans for both fighters will be the same; stand and bang and let the chips fall where they may. This will be a dope little clash of styles and a complete toss-up in my book. But Vegas has Borshchev as the (-165) favorite and Maheshate as the (+135) dog. Maheshate will have a ton of value as a middle-tier Fantasy option; this could turn into a firefight, and he has a good chance to finish the fight. Borshchev will also be a big finishing threat. His bodywork will pay dividends late in the fight, and Maheshate tends to eat a lot of big shots. You know how I do when in doubt. I take the dog. Maheshate Hayisaer via decision.

Winner: Maheshate Hayisaer | Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

$7k Value Menu

Michael Fookin’ Johnson ($7.5k): He’s a wrestler’s/grappler’s kryptonite; lateral movement, excellent sprawls, and hands fast as f**k booooooooy! I don’t think you understand how fast he really is. If he can get this fight to the midway point, you can go ahead and put in an offer on that dream house you’ve been eyeing. Other than Gilbert Urbina and maybe Chase Hooper (maybe), MJ has one of the better chances of finishing the fight of all the $7k options.

Gilbert Urbina ($7.8k): This guy was giving Bryan Battle all Battle could handle in the Ultimate Fighter Finale in 2021 before he got caught. And he looked like one of the front runners on the show from the first episode. Urbina has slick, dangerous striking with a good mix of hands and kicks, and he’ll be up against a guy, Orion Cosce, who likes to wrestle but struggles to score takedowns and gasses quicker than a Pop Tart will burn in the toaster. On the feet, this will be a mismatch; Urbina should be able to piece Cosce up from the outside, and I think Urbina has the best shot at a finish in the $7k range.

Angela Hill ($7.1k): This is a steal. We will know within the first five minutes if Angela will win. If Dern struggles to score a takedown or can’t hold down Angela, Overkill Hill will control the stand-up and rack up significant strikes. Hill won’t be much of a finishing threat, but she can light up the scoreboard, even if it isn’t her hand getting raised at the end of the twenty-five minutes. Plus, I think she has a legit shot of winning this scrap.

$6k Clearance Rack 

Edmen Shahbazyan ($6.8k): You’ll spot Shahbazyan in the back of the store on the rack sitting next to the restrooms, and if you’re in a pinch to fill out your roster, Shahbazyan is a solid option. He will be dripping with value at this price; you can basically walk out of the store without paying for him. If he lets his hands go, he can catch Fluffy Hernandez slippin’ on the feet, and Shahbazyan is a real finishing threat, maybe the biggest threat at the bottom of the draft board.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Overkill Hill (+150): The main card is where it's at for live dogs. I see Angela Hill's chances of winning as 50/50. She will stay on her feet, or she won't. If she can thwart Dern's early takedowns, she could run away with it by staying on the outside and usiing her superior striking. As is often the case, a wrestler's proficiency for scoring takedowns usually decreases as the fight progresses. If Dern can't score early takedowns, the likelihood of her scoring late takedowns is similar to that of taking a doodie and not looking over your shoulder before you flush, not likely.

MJ (+135): Rinse and repeat. MJ will be in the exact scenario as Angela Hill. Sprawl and brawl is MJ's specialty, and if he can stay upright early, his hand speed and superior cardio will give him the edge in the striking. But the Andy Jacks will be in mortal danger if MJ ends up on his back. Flashback to the infamous Khabib fight and one of the worst ground and poundings ever witnessed inside the Octagon.

Ilir Latifi (+165): Latifi is one of those head-scratchers. Dude is built like a giant cannonball, and he has a wrestling base. The problems with Latifi are that he doesn't always fight to his strengths and has a low output on the feet. But he has plenty of skills, and he will be facing a guy with similar weaknesses. Rodrigo Nascimento is a decent wrestler and striker with economy shipping hand speed and a sus gas tank, and I think he's being a little overvalued against the super veteran Latifi. This one is more of a Vegas pick 'em to me and has split-decision written all over it like a rest-stop bathroom stall.

Pick 'Em

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-130) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+110)

Winner: Karolina Kowalkiewicz

 Method: Decision

Orion Cosce (-120) vs. Gilbert Urbina (+100)

Winner: Gilbert Urbina

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Ili Latifi (+165) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (-210)

Winner: Rodrigo Nascimento

 Method: Decision

Chase Hooper (+110) vs. Nick Fiore (-140)  

  Winner: Nick Fiore

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Natalia Silva (-900) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+575)

Winner: Natalia Silva

 Method: Decision

Themba Gorimbo (-110) vs. Takashi Sato (-110)

Winner: Themba Gorimbo

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning