Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Mackenzie Dern (+170) vs. Amanda Ribas (-200)

Dern: DK: $7.7k | Ribas: DK:$8.5k

I spent the last three weeks Eastbound & Down on my luck, wandering the streets aimlessly in search of my next fight fix. Just a little bit of fights. That’s all I needed. Something - anything to stave off the withdrawals. Fury vs. Usyk 2 slowed the downward spiral, but almost as soon as they read the decision, I was scratching and picking at the open sores forming around my mouf and neck. Before I knew it, I found myself behind a Buca di Beppo watching transients (bums if you wanna be a Richard about it) scrapping over leftover bites of eggplant parm and bread pudding. It wasn’t long before I was traveling from dumpster to dumpster – Olive Garden, The Broken Yolk, and Applebee’s—making sure to steer clear of Chilis because not even the financially unfortunate fight over that shit—watching economically downtrodden men scratch, bite, and low blow their way to a hand-me-down meal. Delonte South by Southwest, Delonte North, South, East, and West, the monetarily deficient started calling me as my appearance quickly deteriorated, and I began to blend in with my surroundings.   

Then, after watching an all-out war over a churro bite behind a Jack in the Box on New Year’s Eve, in a near fugue state, my Vans looking like Birkenstock sandals, I stumbled past a B-Dubs with a Dern vs. Ribas 2 advertisement in the window. One week away. I fell to my knees, tears leaving trails in the grime on my face. Hope. I was going to make it. After a quick stop behind a Fuddruckers—those buffalo patties really bring out the dog in the wealth-challenged—I decided to get my shit together. It was time to get back on my bullshit. The WKO was back! 

It’s bowl season, homies. You might as well call this one the Johnson & Johnson Baby Oil Bowl presented by Diddy. If Dana and the UFC brass were smart, they would put the weigh-ins on Pay Per View. Or maybe Netflix could acquire the exclusive rights, and the server could go down right before the main event is made official. This one is an attractive rematch from a fight back in 2019, a fight that Amanda Ribas won by decision. Mackenzie Dern is a Jiu-Jitsu Mozart, Di Vinci, Michelangelo – all that shit. If she gets you to the mat, she will tie you in a double Windsor, synch you uptight, and rock you without a blazer on some business casual type-shit. But you can’t talk Jitz without talking about Amanda Ribas. Although she’s not a submission Banksy like Dern, Ribas’s strength is her grappling. You already know that when two elite grapplers are matched up, a tepid kickboxing match is likely to ensue. As was the case in the first bout between the two.   

But that doesn’t mean this fight is wack. Never that with these two ladies. These ladies have more dog in them than the Humane Society. They might not be the best strikers, but they are the prettiest strikers. N’ah, mean? 

Mackenzie Dern has the less technical striking of the two. Yo! Hit that Makaveli “Bomb First!” What Dern lacks in technical prowess, she makes up for with pure unadulterated aggression. You can count on her to bomb first and throw the questions out the window. Dern is a voyeur striker; she bares all—figuratively speaking—every time she engages. She strikes like nobody’s watching. Dern is a Glengarry Glen Ross striker, an “Act as if” striker. In sales, you always assume the sale. You act as if you’ve already sold the customer. Then you take it away, “This isn’t for you,” and make them want what you’re selling all the more. But that’s for another day. Mackenzie Dern strikes as if she’s Alex Fookin” Pereira, and n’uh uh, you can’t tell her nothing like Kanye. Hit that shit! She won’t box your face off, but she will knock your block off with will overhand haymakers aplenty.   

Where Dern shines is on the mat. She’ll have you looking like pages ripped from the Kama Sutra, tied up in positions you never knew were possible real fookin’ quick. “Don’t threaten me with a good time, pawtna!” She turns your ass into a contortionist real quick. Dern has never finished a fight on the feet, but she has seven career submissions. But her major malfunction is that she has .99 Store takedowns. You’ll roll up in Dollar General and see people haggling with the cashier, “I’ll give you seventy-five cents for this hip toss...” 

“Hey, buddy! You’re holding up the line!” 

“I ain’t your buddy, pal!” 

Unfortunately, Mackenzie Dern has Mackenzie Dern Jiu-Jitsu takedowns. She couldn’t take down my neighbor’s Christmas lights. On the mat, Dern is the eighth wonder of the world. But she can’t get it there. She’s like unwrapping a Nintendo on Christmas day, but you didn’t get any games. Dern is “Batteries Not Included” personified, nonfunctional out of the box. Her biggest problem is her over-aggression on her feet. She leaves her opponents with no option but to completely vacate the pocket when Dern engages, making it hard to initiate a tie-up. Amanda Ribas rocks an eighty-five percent takedown defense, which means Dern will likely have to bang it out on the feet for the duration. And, for Mackenzie, that isn’t a recipe for a dub. 

Amanda Ribas is also an aggressive striker with an odd, drunken cadence. I’m talking sobriety tests between rounds type of drunken cadence. They set up checkpoints along her path to the Octagon like it’s New Year’s Eve. They put breathalyzers on her gloves before she can wear them. Her corner hides her keys when Ribas starts bobbing and weaving and throwing punches. She will have to get a third strike on her record and spend the night in prison to beat Mackenzie Dern. Ribas is a Tourette’s striker. But she lashes out with random strikes instead of yelling random curses. “Tampon-d**k-shit!” She goes straight Cartman in that bish. Her demeanor on the feet is anxious like she can’t kick your ass fast enough. She fights like it’s the first ten seconds of the fight for the entire fight, that fight-just-started energy. Gas, dip, no brake: Ribas is an E-40 remix on the feet, making up for massive black holes in her stand-up with hyper aggression.   

Over the years, Ribas has forgotten the face of her father. She's a better grappler than a striker but rarely attempts to relocate the fight. The problem is, like Dern, Ribas is plagued with Jiu-Jitsu takedowns. She has never learned how to blend her striking and grappling. They remain two separate entities with clear gaps between them. Ribas will be the higher output striker, averaging over four and a half SLpM to Dern’s three and a half. The most telling stat: Ribas averages two takedowns per fifteen minutes to Dern’s under one. A grappling specialist who averages less than one takedown per fight. Also, Dern rocks a thirty percent takedown defense. The stats align in favor of another Ribas decision. 

Ribas will be the (-205) favorite, and Dern will be the (+175) live-ass dog. Dern is a live-ass dog because Ribas isn’t special on the feet. The grappling will likely cancel each other out, and we’ll be left with a grimy kickboxing match. But don’t get it twisted like Kenny Smith’s knees. During nuclear winter, both ladies go straight Cool Borders. They turn into Shaun Fookin’ White. These ladies are in nothing but wars and have more heart than Valentine’s Day. It might be ugly, but it will still be a wild fight. The play for both fighters is a decision. 

Colby Covington turned into Colby Nothington right before our eyes, and the main event dub streak ended at five to finish 2024. The more I think about this one, the more it feels like a toss-up. Don’t underestimate the dog in Mackenzie Dern. But I don’t see much changing from the first fight. Amanda Ribas via decision. Put the first main event of 2025 on wax! 

Props

Dern: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+450) Dec (+450) 

Ribas: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+1000) Dec (-115)

Winner: Amanda Ribas | Method: Decision

Santiago Ponzinibbio(-135) vs. Carlston Harris (+110)

The Ponz: DK: $8k | Harris.: DK: $8.2k

Quit playing and hit that Happy Days theme song! The Ponz is back! I was today years old when I found out Ponzinibbio has two b’s in it. This one will be a classic wrestler vs. striker matchup, Santiago Ponzinibbio being the latter. Carlston Harris is the male version of Mackenzie Dern when it comes to his stand-up. Except his isn’t much to look at like Dern’s. If The Ponz can keep the fight standing, it could be a long-short night for Harris. But the same will be true for The Ponz if Harris can get the top position. Hence, the idiosyncrasy of a wrestler vs. striker matchup. 

After two straight L’s, The Ponz is about to jump the shark. But he hasn’t just yet. He is still approaching the ramp, his pleather jacket flapping in the wind and his water skis leaving behind frothy wakes. It wasn’t long ago that The Ponz disconnected Alex Morono from his server. One punch late in a fight that The Ponz was losing. He may have lost a step, but The Ponz still has those 151-proof hands. “Everybody in the Octagon getting tipsy!” Yo! Hit that Shaboozey “Tipsy!” The Ponz’s right hand will leave you blowing two times the legal limit. He has those absinthe hands – have you hallucinating like you dropped a Molly. “Sorry ‘bout that, Molly.” The Ponz will buy the bar out with hooks and overhands.   

The Ponz’s style is a throwback to the midrange game. All these new-school cats just pull up from behind the arc every exchange. But The Ponz works the pick n’ roll, runs the triangle offense, gets into the lane, and pulls up on you. He’s not great from range, and he isn’t a great pocket striker, but The Ponz will light you up from the free throw line extended. The Ponz needs to find his sweet spot or his output struggles. But his major malfunction is that he almost always gives up the first round. He shows up late to every fight. MF is on a final warning. The Ponz operates on Brazilian time. And that’s a real thing. He hits the snooze button in the first round. But I’ll give The Ponz this: he finishes strong like a fine barrel-aged bourbon. The Ponz is like old-school cars that you’d leave running in the driveway to warm up while you got ready for the day. And no one stole that shit. If he had shown up on time against Michel Pereira, The Ponz would have won that fight.   

Carlston Harris’s arms starred in the 90s movie Anaconda. His arms are longer than a work week. Longer than Pinocchio's nose while reading the New York times aloud. He can tie his shoes without bending over. “Upon closer inspection, these are loafers.” And his face looks like it has over 250k miles on it, well past its Power Train Warranty. It looks weathered like patio furniture. Homie has old stains on him like Grammy’s couch. My man looks like he’s been aging in fight years since entering the UFC. Harris is 4-2 in the UFC, but those two losses were devastating knockouts. On the feet, Harris’s punches slap. And I ain’t talking bomb-ass grub. His punches unravel like noisemaker party favors. They whip like pool noodles. His arms are just too long to hot box with The Ponz. If Harris can’t stand out at range, his striking is almost useless inside the pocket. 

But Carlston Harris can tie you up like strait jackets and turn your ass into Randle McMurphy real quick on the mat. Harris’s specialty is head-and-arm chokes, D’arce/Anocandas. This guy hunts chokes like Mossy Oak and elk urine. And he’s a better striker on the mat than on his feet. There is only one path to victory available to Harris: closing the distance and dragging The Ponz to the mat. Harris is 19-6 with five TKO/KOs and six subs.   

The higher output striker will be Ponzinibbio, averaging over four and a half SLpM compared to Harris’s just over three. But Harris averages two takedowns per fifteen minutes, while The Ponz rocks a sixty-six percent takedown defense. The Ponz will be the slight (-115) favorite, and Harris will be the (-105) live-ass dog. I like the chance of a finish for both fighters. The play for The Ponz is a TKO/KO, and the play for Harris is a submission. The Ponz has never been submitted, and Harris has been finished via TKO/KO three times. So, I would give the Ponz a slight edge. You already know how I’m rolling. Santiago “The Ponz” Ponzinibbio via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.   

Props

The Ponz: TKO/KO (-115) Sub (+180) Dec (+225) 

Harris.: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+215) Dec (+165)

Winner: Santiago Ponzinibbio | Method: TKO Rd.3

Abdul Alhassan (+220) vs. Cesar Almeida (-275)

Alhassan: DK: $6.9k | Almeida: DK:$9.3k

Bebop is back, and he’s still in search of his Rocksteady. Abdul Razak Alhassan is a former Action Figure Draft number one overall pick. Billy from down the street passed up on a Megazord and an Iceman who changes colors in the freezer to draft Alhassan. So far, Alhassan has been a bust, going 5-6-1 in his UFC career. But that doesn’t mean homie doesn’t crack like Meek’s cheeks. If this fight stays standing, we’re in for one of the first bangers of 2025. But Cesar Almeida’s striking will turn any striker into Khamzat Chimaev, shooting doubles at the sound of the bell real fookin’ quick. On paper, this is a striker vs. striker matchup. But in reality, I suspect Alhassan will come out rocking the singlet and Princess Leia ear muffs and turn this into a wrestler vs. striker matchup as was the case when Almeida fought the kickboxing dynamo, Roman Kopylov. 

Cesar Almeida fought Alex Pereira three fookin’ times under kickboxing rules. And check it: He even beat Pereira once. That’s like surviving three Final Destination movies. That’s like surviving Justin Bieber’s 14th, 15th, and 16th birthday parties. Beating Pereira in any striking competition is like beating Mike Tyson on Punch Out! Cesar Almeida survived the real-life Squid Games. Fook redlight/greenlight, Cesar survived Left Hook/Right Hand. Almeida is a conservative striker who uses precision over volume. He can get away with falling behind on the punching stats because his power is life-changing. No one man should have all that power! Yo! Hit that Kanye “Power!” When Almeida lands, he Breaks Stuff like Fred Durst. Almeida has a menacing presence in the cage that opponents seem to wilt under. The only way to beat this guy is to take him down.   

That’s because Almeida’s takedown defense is offensive. If MMA attributes were the SAT’s, Almeida would score 800 on the striking portion and get shut out on the grappling section. He wouldn’t even get points for spelling his name correctly on the ScanTron. As soon as Almeida’s ass hits the mat, his homies start pouring out 40 ounces and playing “Tears in Heaven” on the jukebox. Yo! Hit that Eric Clapton! When Almeida ends up on the mat, the visuals draw “Man Getting Hit By Football” reactions from the crowd. My man turns into Hans Moleman on the mat. What goes down won’t come up when it comes to Almeida’s grappling. But I will say this: If Almeida trips, falls, and lands in the top position, he can ground and pound your ass real proper. No Diddy.  

This one is simple for Almeida: Keep the fight standing and walk away with a dub. Almeida is 6-1 for his career with four TKO/KOs. His lone loss came against Kopylov, who took Almeida down five times. Those were the first takedowns of Kopylov’s career. Almeida rocks a forty-seven percent takedown defense and four SLpM compared to Alhassan’s three and a half.   

Abdul Razak Alhassan is built like a brick shit house, a shit brick house, all that shit. My man’s traps are like a set of wings. His traps are classified as a K-1 mountain. Dozens of people die each year trying to summit Alhassan’s traps. His back looks like the Coors Light logo. Homie is carrying the Rockies on his back. In his most recent bout against Cody Brundage, Alhassan managed to find an L in the word Dub. Alhassan landed a series of blows to the back of the head after delivering a 2Pac in the MGM Grand lobby beatdown. Brundage looked like he was trying to escape Diddy’s lair. Alhassan’s power is cartoonish. When he lands, comic book sound effects flash all over the arena, “BLAM! WHAAM! KAZAAM! BAROOM!”   

The problem for Alhassan will be that Almeida is a far more technical striker. Even though striking is Alhassan’s bread and butter, he will have to switch things up and get Almeida to the mat ASAP. That isn’t an impossible task. Alhassan averages nearly one takedown per fifteen minutes and has some sneaky power doubles. If Alhassan can’t get Almeida to the mat consistently, he will slowly get picked apart on the feet. Alhassan is 12-6 for his career with a one-hunnid percent finishing rate, including twelve TKO/KOs.   

Almeida will be the (-285) favorite, and Alhassan will be the (+235) mangy dog. It’s a tough task for even the most seasoned wrestlers/grapplers to dominate a fight on the mat for fifteen minutes. But that’s Alhassan’s clearest path to victory. He has the power to stop anyone in their tracks, but he lacks the technical ability to set up his power shots against a savvy striker like Almeida. The play for Almeida is a late TKO/KO. But a decision also has value, as Almeida is very picky when choosing his shots. Without a finish, Almeida could turn into a Fantasy bust. In two three-round bouts, his highest striking total is fifty-eight. I say all that to say this: Cesar Almeida via TKO, round three. Put that ish on wax. 

Props

Almeida: TKO/KO (+130) Sub (+1400) Dec (+200) 

Alhassan: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2500) Dec (+900)

Winner: Cesar Almeida | Method: TKO Rd.3

Chris Curtis (+210) vs.Roman Kopylov (-275)

Curtis: DK: $7.1k | Kopylov: DK: $9.1k

Banger. Roman Kopylov won’t be taking down Chris Curtis five times in a single fight. That’s because Chris Curtis has takedown defense like Mormon underoos. My man has takedown defense like illegal streams. No, this one will be a guaranteed striker vs. striker matchup. This one will answer the great debate: Which is more deadly, power or speed? Kopylov’s hands are faster than the speed of life, and Curtis has more power than global elites. This scrap will be a modern reimagining of the Tortoise vs. The Hare. One thing is certain: One of these guys will get got.   

Yo! Hit that Redman “Time 4 Sum Aksion!” The Action Man is back! Chris Curtis had a lengthy career before he made it to the UFC. This guy is a minimalist fighter. His style is all boxing everything. Kicks? F**k ‘em. Knees? F**k ‘em. Grappling? F**k it. Chris Curtis doesn’t mess with any of that shit. Like the only thing Chris Carter does is catch touchdowns, the only thing Chris Curtis does is throw hands. Curtis hides behind a Pittsburgh Shell and unloads left hands and right hooks. His Philly Shell isn’t quite within Philidelphia city limits. His Philly Shell got sent to Beverly Hills to live with its auntie and uncle in Bel Air. It’s a little too leaky. Curtis bought his Philly Shell at a Sean Strickland garage sale. You can call Chris Curtis Boyd Juneweather. But although Curtis lacks a little defensive prowess, he cracks like pinkies and single-ply. 

Curtis stays on his toes like Kevin Hart at a urinal and glides around the Octagon like it’s an air hockey table. He just floats around the cage, dropping bombs like it’s 1945. His left hand is laser-sighted, and when he starts unloading, you will be covered in so many red dots you’ll think you have chicken pox. It looks like strobe lights in that bish when The Action Man starts throwing. But Curtis’s major malfunction is that sometimes he inexplicably turns into the In-Action Man and lets too much time run off the clock without snapping the ball. He can be lulled into stretches of inactivity. This is why he has lost some close fights. It’s rare that you’ll see Chris Curtis get his ass kicked. He usually just gets outworked just enough.   

But when Curtis stays focused, he’s a high-output striker, averaging over five and a half SLpM. Curtis landed well over one hundred significant strikes in his last two fights, and one was a three-rounder. Even without a finish, Chris Curtis is a Fantasy monster. This is a perfect matchup for Curtis because Kopylov’s aggression won’t allow Curtis to ease off the gas at any time. Curtis is 31-11 with seventeen TKO/KOs and one lonely-ass sub.  

Roman Kopylov has the face of a fighter. You can take one look at him and know he’s been through some shit. My man’s face has dents in it like a student driver car – like the ball cart on a driving range. He has that Michael Jackson nose – that Mr. Potato Head removable nose. Shit looks like a mine cave-in. His face looks like it was built with sixteen-bit graphics. Kopylov looks like Pennywise without his makeup. But Roman Kopylov ain’t in it for the honeys. He’s in it for the money, power, and respect like the Lox. If Roman Kopylov can finish Chris Curtis, we could see a Roman Kopylov Fight Night main event before the end of 2025. 

What makes Roman Kopylov a special striker is his hand and foot speed. His hands have speed governors on them like rental cars. His hands will explode like the bus in Speed if they dip under light speed. Kopylov’s hands are sharp and precise. He has them prison contraband shank hands. Call him Edward Scalpel Hands. Homie had to go to medical school to learn how to use his hands. Kopylov’s special move is the Reverse Bobby Knuckles combination. Robert Whittaker throws a cross with a right-round kick right behind it. It almost looks like he throws them at the same time. Kopylov throws his lead leg and throws the cross on the backswing. It’s some sleight-of-hand shit. 

Kopylov can win this fight with volume and a more diverse attack. Kopylov is a true kickboxer with more weapons than Curtis. Curtis solely relies on his hands. Kopylov punctuates hand combinations with kicks and vice versa. Kopylov is 13-3 with eleven TKO/KOs. He started his UFC career 0-2, then reeled off four straight dubs, all finishes. His only loss in his last six fights came against the grappling Gandolf, Fluffy Hernandez. Kopylov will be the lower-output striker, averaging just under four and a half SLpM, but he can make up for that with damage. He lands a lot of clean shots because his hands are so fookin’ fast. 

Kopylov will be the (-270) favorite, and Curtis will be the (+220) live-ass dog. I think these odds are off. This fight will be closer than they suggest. Kopylov is far from untouchable on the feet. Chris Curtis has the power to end anyone’s night early. He was one takedown away from beating Brendan Allen for a second time in his most recent bout. He had Allen in all kinds of trouble in that fight. This fight is in Curtis’s sweet spot, a striker's delight. I think the play for each fighter is a decision. I’d give Curtis a slightly better shot at scoring a finish, but I think this one will come down to the judges. But I have to roll with speed every damn day of the week. Roman Kopylov via decision. On wax.  

Props

Kopylov: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+2000) Dec (+100)  

Curtis: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+2500) Dec (+450)

Winner: Roman Kopylov | Method: Decision

Uros Medic (-200) vs. Punahele Soriano (+170)

Medic: DK: $8.7k | Soriano: DK: $7.5k

Another stand-up banger. When you fight Uros Medic, you better hope your coverage isn't denied because you’ll have to see one after. Uros will serve you like a couple with a side of tzatziki sauce and some fries real quick. And Punahele Soriano is the real-life Mega Man with a plasma cannon for a left hand. This guy fights like Furiosa - like he’s missing his right hand. Punahele is a franchise owner of Ned Flanders’ Leftorium – All Left Everything. This fight will be the Kirkland brand version of Curtis vs. Kopylov – power vs. speed.   

Uros Medic looks like a Cricket Wireless manager, but don’t let that fool you. You’re preapproved for a free head kick upgrade with the purchase of a left hand. On the feet, Medic has more kicks than an MPC machine. His round kicks are 808s, and his hands are the snares. “808’s and Heartbreak.” Hit that shit! Medic’s M.O. is kicking the shit out of your arms like a Thai fighter in Lumpinee stadium. He’ll have you looking like Red running to the car after Deebo stole his bike. He’ll leave your arms feeling like when you sleep on your stomach and wake up in a panic, thinking you lost them. Medic’s hands are similar to Roman Kopylov’s but not quite as fast. But he throws nothing but straight darts. His hands are comebackers up the middle. 

Medic’s major malfunction is his ground game. He has the ground game of a mermaid. Merman. He has that Kevin Kosner Water World ground game. As soon as Medic’s ass hits the mat, a mural of him goes up on the side of an abandoned Toys R Us. As soon as his ass hits the mat, his homies turn into Dennis Rodman looking for a rebound. N’ah, mean? Medic rocks a fifty-five percent takedown defense only to be outdone by Punahele’s thirty-fookin'-seven percent. But Puna averages one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. He is far from an elite wrestler, but it only takes an amateur to get Medic to the mat. Medic needs to keep the fight standing where he averages five and a half SLpM compared to Puna’s just under five. Volume and strike diversity will win this fight for Medic.   

There aren’t many things that I trust less than Punahele Soriano. I trust riding a ski lift with Lizzo more than betting on Puna. I trust Travis Hunter’s Betty more than Punahele Soriano. When you expect the world from Puna, he hands you Bakersfield, CA. Puna suffers from that Matt Eberflus fight IQ. He will do just the right thing at the wrong time to lose. One reason for that is because he is so predictable. He’s like a poker player who does an endzone dance whenever he gets a good hand. No matter what, Puna is going to throw a left hand. His right hand is just along for the ride. His right hand is a freeloader. Deadbeat-ass right hand. Puna’s right hand is the homie who puts his name on the group project the day it’s due. His right hand still has that new car smell – it's still wrapped in its original packaging.   

But this MF can crack like a 49ers fan’s psyche. He has that Quagmire left hand: “Have you been lifting weights?” Puna throws nothing but power shots. To the body, the head: nothing but power shots. He’s like playing Streetfighter against a kid who only does Hadoukens. Puna has that Midas touch – that bodywork that he uses to open avenues to the head. Puna can win this fight. But he will have to be more tactical. He’s too repetitive. He can make this an MMA fight, using the clinch and level changes and not allowing Medic to get into a rhythm on the feet.   

Medic will be the (-210) favorite, and Punahele will be the (+175) live dog. Puna can put anybody away. The problem is that he lacks footwork, and tends to walk straight into punches, never deviating from the center line. The only man to finish Puna on the feet is Roman Kopylov. Medic has never been finished on the feet, only submitted twice. I like playing this one to go the distance one way or the other. Uros Medic via decision. Wax on, wax off. 

Props

Medic: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+900) Dec (+300)  

Soriano: TKO/KO (+380) Sub (+1600) Dec (+450)

Winner: Uros Medic | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Punahele Soriano ($7.5k): Having two paths to victory for Punahele Soriano is rare. But that will be the case when he fights Uros Medic. Puna can stand and bang and unload left hands for fifteen minutes, and he can steal rounds with his wrestling. Belal Muhammad, he isn’t, but he doesn’t need to be to get Medic to the mat. Takedowns will be a smart way for Puna to steal close rounds. But even if his wrestling doesn’t pan out, Puna has Chief Wiggum stupid power. Yes, Puna is repetitive and predictable. He will shake off the catcher until the catcher holds up one finger for the fastball, aka the left hand. But that left hand is hard to avoid, even when you know it's coming. Puna has a distant shot at a finish, and if the fight stays standing, this fight should produce solid striking stats for both fighters. 

Chris Curtis ($7.1k): Chris Curtis cracks like a plumber’s ass. Roman Kopylov had all kinds of problems on the feet with Cesar Almeida, and Kopylov is an elite kickboxer. Kopylov had to resort to wrestling Almeida. In many ways, Chris Curtis will be just as dangerous as Almeida. Curtis is a far higher-output striker than Almeida and has comparable power. And unlike Almeida, against Curtis, Kopylov won’t be able to resort to takedowns if he runs into trouble on the feet. Curtis landed one hundred twenty-four and one hundred forty significant strikes, respectively, in his last two bouts. One hundred forty came in a three-rounder. This fight will go down to the wire and is another high-output striking match that should produce high striking stats on both sides. Plus, Curtis can finish anybody with that left hand.   

Mackenzie Dern ($7.7k): There’s a high likelihood that Dern vs. Ribas will stay on the feet for its entirety. Dern is far from a technical, elite striker. But her aggression can’t be understated. She will take nothing but Home Run Derby hacks and has the cardio to keep swinging all night. And if she can get Ribas to the mat, Dern is a massive submission threat. Never forget what Dern did to my homie Angela Hill. NObody flat-out whoops Angela Hills ass—nobody except Mackenzie Dern. Dern beat up Hill from the top position. She said fook submissions and laid a beating on Hill. Ground and pound is a good way to rack up significant strikes quickly. But even if she can’t get Ribas to the mat, the two will likely stand in front of each other and trade hands like Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots for twenty-five minutes. 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Joe Solecki ($6.7k): This is a rare week with several Clearance Rack options. Joe Solecki is stepping in on short notice against Nurullo Aliev, a dominant grappler. Solecki’s specialty is also his grappling. Stronger grapplers like Grant Dawson have dominated Solecki on the mat in the past. But Solecki is always a walking submission. Solecki is a backpacker; his specialty is taking the back and sinking in rear-naked chokes. Of his noine career submissions, seven came via RNC. If Solecki can force scrambles and doesn’t accept being on his back, he could put Aliev in some dangerous positions. Of all the Clearance Rack options, Solecki might be the best chance at scoring an upset finish.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Carlston Harris (+115): Santiago Ponzinibbio can’t be trusted like Jerry Jones in the off-season. The low tread warning on The Ponz’s career is starting to show. He has been in many wars over the years, and it kind of feels like he may not have many more rounds left in him. If Harris can get The Ponz to the mat, it could be a long-short night for him. We haven’t seen The Ponz have to defend takedowns and fight from his back in a long time. Harris began the week at (-105) but has now hit plus-money. I picked The Ponz to eke out a decision on the feet, but I have little confidence in that pick. Harris is a live-ass dog, especially now that he is at plus-money. Harris has chokes like weenies and windpipes, and he can catch them amid wild scrambles, even while standing. 

Chris Curtis (+215): Barring Alex Pereira dropping back down to middleweight, there isn’t a man in the division that Chris Curtis can’t stand and bang with. He will be the higher-output striker against Kopylov, and Curtis has the one-punch KO power that Kopylov lacks. If Curtis can make this an ugly scrap in the pocket and not allow Kopylov to stand at kicking distance, he will have a good shot at winning this fight – maybe even finishing Kopylov late.   

Mackenzie Dern (+165): The main event is a toss-up to me. Since their first bout in 2019, Dern has shown the most improvement. Her striking still isn’t very good, technically. But she has gotten a lot better. Dern is much better equipped to handle Ribas’s odd cadence than she was in the first match. Ribas has bounced between strawweight and flyweight. But she has only lost once at 115 lbs. Dern has to stay committed to her grappling and trying to achieve the clinch for twenty-five minutes. She can’t kickbox her way to victory without the threat of a takedown. And never doubt the dog in Mackenzie Dern. 

Pick ‘Em

Austin Bashi (-300) vs. Christian Rodriguez (+240)  

Winner: Austin Bashi 

Method: Decision 

Jose Johnson (-185) vs. Felipe Bunes (+160)  

Winner: Felipe Bunes  

Method: Decision  

Marco Tulio (-550) vs. Ihor Potieria (+390) 

Winner: Marco Tulio 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Thiago Moises (-190) vs. Trey Ogden (+160) 

Winner: Thiago Moises 

Method: Decision 

Preston Parsons (+410) vs. Jacobe Smith (-585) 

Winner: Jacobe Smith 

Method: Decision 

Ernesta Kareckaite (-270) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+220) 

Winner: Ernesta Kareckaite 

Method: Decision 

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-225) vs. Bruno Lopes (+185) 

 Winner: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 

Method: Decision 

Fatima Kline (-900) vs. Victoria Dudakova (+575) 

Winner: Fatima Kline 

Method: Decision 

Nurullo Aliev (-600) vs. Joe Solecki (+425) 

Winner: Nurullo Aliev 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.