Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Leon Edwards (+140) vs. Sean Brady (-160)

Edwards: DK: $7.6k | Brady: DK:$8.6k

Everyone wants to be at the top. But more difficult than reaching it is staying there. Heavy lies the crown. Upon coronation, it rests perfectly upon the head like a custom New Era fitted, 7 3/8. It doesn’t take long before it becomes one of those big-ass NFL Guardian Caps, and you’re walking around as if someone hit you with an NBA Jam big-head cheat code. Unless you’re willing to train like a Brazzers max contract player and do countless weighted neck exercises, eventually, the burden becomes too heavy for the average man’s shoulders to bear. Even after defending his title twice, Leon Edwards never looked comfortable under the crown’s weight. He never looked to be at peace with being the hunted. The former champ was more in his element when rocking Mossy Oak camo with little branches glued to his head and dousing himself in elk urine like Cool Water aftershave.   

Leon was never a risk-taker. But he became less of one after winning the belt. He was one minute away from never winning the title before he unleashed a Doug Flutie Boston College Hail Mary left high kick and sent history on an alternate route. If you paid close attention to Leon’s fights leading up to the Belal Muhammad title defense, you saw his demise creeping up on him. After getting out to a big lead against Colby Covington, Leon spent the entirety of the fifth round on his back, not even attempting to get back to his feet. I had never seen a champ content with hoisting the belt after allowing himself to be violated in a championship round – named such because rounds four and five separate champs from contenders.   

I don’t know why, but Leon loses interest in the middle of fights. Homie starts questioning himself like he’s under oath. Leon goes straight Tom Cruise in A Few Good Men on himself.  

“Did you order the Code Red! I want answers! I want the truth!” 

“You can’t handle the truth!” 

Homie starts sweating on the stand like Lizzo in the produce section. Leon has lost his last six rounds inside the Octagon. Compounding his mental woes is his propensity to fade late in fights. Fatigue makes Leons of us all. His indifferent countenance also works against him because it’s the last impression left in the judge's mind. And although I picked Leon to beat Belal, I couldn’t drop an Andy Jack on Belal fast enough. I’m still eating off that shit like Gotye is still eating off Somebody That I Used to Know spins. 

I say all that to say this: Leon is still a bad MF when he wants to be. He remains a technically pristine striker. Leon treats his hands like DJ Khaled treats a pair of Jordans. 

Leon makes people feed him, so he doesn’t get his hands dirty. At night, he wears gloves filled with Vaseline. He has those JP Prewitt hand-model hands. Leon fights like he’s wearing a rented tux and doesn’t want to get blood stains on that bish, so he can get his deposit back. I’d say Leon is (was) one of the best point strikers in the game. He rarely extends combinations past a 1-2 and staunchly avoids exchanges inside the pocket. Leon’s style is entirely range-based. His hands are bolt-action and are equipped with night vision scopes. And his left leg is satellite-guided. Leon’s shin still has Kamaru Usman’s face imprinted on it. His strikes are more accurate than conspiracy theories since the year of the Great Toilet Paper Famine. Overall, Leon strikes for average not power. Leon has those .394 Tony Gwynn hands and his straight left is his 5.5 hole.   

The key for Leon against Sean Brady will be staying on his feet. Before the Belal fight, takedown defense was one of his strengths. But it only took Belal seconds to get Leon to the mat. And Belal racked up noine takedowns. Leon rocks a sixty-five percent takedown defense, and Brady averages three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. That's not a good look. Also, Brady averages four SLpM compared to Leon’s below three. Leon often relies on one big shot to steal rounds or risks getting outworked.  

You can’t talk about Sean Brady without mentioning his tat game. The tat on his back has a tat on its back. They use Brady’s back tat as a photo backdrop at Hollywood spirit cookouts. It looks like Li Jingliang in the morning without his makeup. If Sean Brady had his tats removed, he could make bantamweight. He can tag-in his tat to fight a round or two for him. This guy has so many tats he’s SPF 500. Imagine how good Brady could be if he wasn’t vitamin D deficient. Brady’s back tat vs Alexander Volkovs back tat should be a fight night main event.  

Sean Brady will have to go full Wayne Brady to beat Leon. I’m talking empty the clip outside the club and make it an ugly scrap. 

“There he is... Break yourself, fool!” 

“Ah, shit! It’s Sean Brady, son!” 

He has to go full Psycho Brady. Brady's biggest improvement in eight UFC bouts is his striking. It has consistently gotten better. He had a solid first round against Belal and out-boxed Kevin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns. Brady has those Paul Wall and Kayne tippin’ Vogues hand speed. You need to pump the brakes and drive slow. Yo! Hit that shit! Brady’s hands aren’t into speed. They just cruise like El Do's and Caddies with the top down and the back seat full of boppers. But his hands are heavy and oddly straight for a man his size. Sean Brady is so thick they serve him upside down at Dairy Queen. You need three arms to lock your hands around him. He’s built like a linebacker at welterweight. 

The key for Brady will be using his striking to level change and push Leon against the cage. He has to slow-play this fight. Leon is guaranteed to fade over five rounds. Brady can expedite the process by grinding Leon in the clinch and making him defend takedown after takedown. Leon is bendable, and if Brady gives him a reason, especially early, Leon will break. But Brady will have to deal with Leon’s speed early to set up his takedowns.   

Brady will be the (-150) favorite, and Leon will be the (+125) live-ass dog. Leon is only one fight removed from the title. And he will be fighting in London, his own backyard. He will be the technically far superior striker and the bigger finishing threat on the feet. But I’d be surprised if this one ended before the final bell. I think the play for this one is a decision both ways. Fantasy-wise, Leon only landed forty-seven and fifty-seven significant strikes, respectively, in his last two bouts. Brady landed one hundred thirty in five rounds against Gilbert Boo-urns.   

The main event L streak now sits at two after a sloppy main event last week. That Alex Pereira loss was devastating. I was hoping the odds makers might sleep on Sean Brady. But that isn’t the case. It’s hard to bet against any man who can endure the pain of spending the equivalent of a full year under a needle. No, that man lives for pain and can’t be broken. Sean Brady via decision. Put it on wax.  

Props

Edwards: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+2000) Dec (+225) 

Brady: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+350) Dec (+150)

Winner: Sean Brady | Method: Decision

Jan Blachowicz (+235) vs. Carlos Ulberg (-285)

Jan: DK: $7.2k | Ulberg: DK: $9k

This could be an Any Given Sunday Willie Beamen and Jack Rooney changing of the guard type of fight. Carlos Ulberg is the young Willie Beamen trying to take the old savvy vet’s position in the title contention starting lineup. But don’t sleep on Jan Blachowicz. Go back and look at his body of work. Blachowicz is like the State Farm commercial when the old fisherman dangles a dollar bill above a woman’s head, “Oh, you almost had it. You gotta be quicker than that.” Jan fooked around and damn near beat both Alex Pereira and the current champ, Magomed Ankalaev. I know, I know. This ain’t horseshoes or hand grenades, MF. Only Dallas Cowboys fans hang up moral victory banners in the rafters. But it illustrates how good Jan is. When it comes to this matchup, he will be the far more proven and well-rounded fighter. But Carlos Ulberg’s hands still have low mileage, and his appetite hasn’t been satiated by a short stint with the belt.   

Carlos Ulberg could make a Nun risk it all. This guy is the Billy the Kid of Betty robberies. They got wanted posters of this guy up all over the arena - dead or alive. Ulberg is the Ricky Henderson of stealing Bettys. This MF will steal home one you. Ulberg has a dozen offshore bank accounts in Cypress where he stashes the wealth he generates from his global Betty laundering scheme. Saturday Night Lights – Ulberg is the varsity QB all over again. He has every Betty in the arena rocking his Letterman jacket. If you’re fighting Carlos Ulberg, you might as well just cut your losses and hand over the remote and the passcode to the thermostat and head out to the local HOJO.  

Ulberg has come a long way from when he fumbled the bag in his debut in 2021. He went straight Lee Harvey Oswald, went out like a patsy against Kennedy Nzechukwu, and hasn’t lost since. Homie had Kennedy all but slumped in the back seat in the first round but gassed trying to finish the fight. But Ulberg has won seven in a row, five via finish. Ulberg possesses the lost elements: LE (length) & SP (speed). Ulberg’s hand speed is like they just took a hit of it from a glass pipe. Hand position is the key to Ulberg’s speed. He holds his hands halfway extended to the target and snaps them. He will hit you with a 1-2 and be sitting in your ass groove in front of your big screen before you hit the ground. Ulberg depends on range, like the first and fifteenth. You have to get inside and force him to exchange in the pocket.   

So far, Ulberg has yet to fight a fight a guy who can take him down. This will be his Alex Pereira vs. Bruno Silva type of matchup. Jan is far from an elite wrestler, but he is an efficient one. Jan took down Israel Adesanya and Pereira three times each. Ulberg rocks an eighty-three percent takedown defense, while Jan averages one takedown per fifteen minutes. There’s no doubt that Jan will look to tie up and drag Ulberg to the mat early and often. Ulberg is 11-1 with seven TKO/KOs and one sub and averages over seven SLpM compared to Jan’s three and a half. Ulberg will have to outwork Jan from the outside while avoiding over-punching and falling into the clinch.   

This is a WKO quote from 2023 before Jan fought Alex Pereira: “This might be controversial, but I think Jan’s striking may be just as good, if not better than Pereira’s.” Weed is a helluva drug. Yo! Hit that Charlie Murphy! WRONG! WRONG! But Jan is still a solid striker in his own right. He had Ankalaev looking like Ace Ventura with spears stuck in his legs. “I’ll have you know, I have the reflexes of a cat and the speed of a mongoose.” After the fight, Jan carved his initials into Ankalaev’s wooden legs. On the feet, Jan blitzes like he guessed your play correctly on Techmo Super Bowl and uses basic training combinations – left, right, left. But he has weird, sneaky power and seems to drop people most often when he’s off balance.  

Jan should be a member of the band Plain White T’s. His style is like rocking a plain white tee everywhere. I'm talking job interviews, funerals, and even the Oval Office. Homie would rock a plain white tee on his wedding day. But a plain white tee always looks crispy and gets the job done. Carlos Ulberg has a Gucci model facial structure, and Jan Blachowicz has a plain white tee – let the best man win. Jan’s special weapon is his lead left leg. It’s sneaky, and he uses it to punctuate hand combinations. He also has a rear-hand uppercut that he sandwiches between straight punches. But the key for Jan will be using his striking to get to the clinch and against the cage. This fight will have to look exactly like the Pereira fight, even though he lost that fight. Jan has to make it boring, or Ulberg’s superior physical attributes could overwhelm him.   

Ulberg will be the (-225) favorite, and Jan will be the (+185) live-ass dog. Ulberg hasn’t faced anyone committed to getting him to the mat. If Jan is smart, he will do just that. If he keeps the fight standing at range, Ulberg will touch him up and outwork him. Ulberg will be the bigger finishing threat. I like the value in an early TKO/KO, but I think he will have to go a hard fifteen minutes. If Ulberg can't get it done early, Jan could take over late. The play for Jan is a boring decision with long stretches of top control. Man, I think this one is a toss-up. The fight will be Ulberg's to lose if he can defend a couple early takedowns. Carlos Ulberg via decision. On wax. 

Props

Ulberg: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+1800) Dec (+140) 

Blachowicz: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+1800) Dec (+450)

Winner: Carlos Ulberg | Method: Decision

Kevin Holland (+105) vs. Gunnar Nelson (-130)

Holland: DK: $7.7k | Nelson: DK:$8.5k

Everything I touch turns to shit. The Cowboys, King Green, the Angels, the Pelicans, Kevin Holland – my fandom is a cancer, a Scarlett letter. If I’m a fan of yours, some foul shit is likely looming on your horizon. Kevin Holland is one of the fighters in my stable of misfit favorite fighters, so it makes sense that he has lost two straight and four of his last five. Middleweight or welterweight, it doesn't matter. The Ls keep piling up. Holland has become a transparent Coachella hologram version of his former ass-kicking self. He’s like Blink-182 when Tom DeLonge left the band to contact aliens like Jodie Foster. But despite the Ls, Holland continues to fight once a week like he’s on an NFL schedule. He’s already making his second appearance of ‘25. This time, it will be Gunnar “Ha-Ha” Nelson taking down Holland and likely dominating him from the top position.   

It’s come to this: I trust chicken masala in a creamy curry sauce from a street vendor in New Delhi more than I trust Kevin Holland. I’d trust putting Lizzo in charge of the food rations if we were stranded together on a deserted island more than I do Kevin Holland. I’d trust Lizzo with my corpse if we were members of the Donner party traveling along the Oregon Trail in the middle of the winter than I do picking Kevin Holland to win a fight these days. It’s crazy to think back on to a time when he KO’d Joaquin Buckley and Jacare Souza. Holland remains formidable on his feet; I thought he beat Jack “De La Soul” Maddalena and held his own against MVP. But everyone knows Holland’s major malfunction: His ground game.   

Holland actually has excellent Jiu-Jitsu, but he keeps forgetting, like Michael McDonald. Yo! Hit that “Keep Forgetting!” I keep forgetting how you made it so clear that you don’t even want to pretend to know how to grapple, Kevin. Holland is slick with head-and-arm chokes (arm-triangles, D’arce/Anacondas), but lately, he has just been a chalk outline on the mat, a fookin’ victim. This is a winnable fight for Holland, even though Gunnar Nelson is a wizard on the mat. I dare say that Holland should win this fight. He has fought nearly an entire career worth of fights since Gunnar last fought. Gunnar has fought only once in three years. Holland has more starts this year than Gunnar has this decade. But what weight does that hold when you rock a fifty-three percent takedown defense? If Holland can find a way to stay on his feet, he will dominate the stand-up with his superior range. But that IF requires a font bigger than Microsoft Word can generate.   

His name is Gunnar, but he isn’t even a bow and arrow these days. Nelsons striking? I ain’t buying it like my 4th-grade teacher wasn’t buying it when I brought a bag of dog shit to class and said my dog ate my homework. Nelson is a strip mall Karate black belt with a red stripe, and I ain’t talking “Hooray, beer!” He uses a McGregor/Cejudo bladed stance with traditional Karate/Taekwondo in/out movement and has basic blitzing attacks. His record says he has four career TKO/KOs to go along with thirteen submissions, but I’ve never seen him even come close to finishing a fight on the feet. Gunnar is and always will be a ground specialist.  

Nelson’s means of relocating fights to the mat is utilizing trips. Gunnar has more trips than Autumn – little schoolyard roughhousing trips. They work well when he combines it with his blitzing stand-up to set them up. And once he gets you to the mat, Gunnar controls you like a police state. He has draconian, oppressive top control. You’re rubber and he’s glue and that’s it. Nelson is human flypaper on the mat. He’s buoyant on the mat; he just floats on the top position like he’s riding an inner tube on a lazy river. Gunnar makes controlling the top position look easy like Sunday morning. Yo! Hit The Commodores! Nelson just bides his time from the top, waiting you out, certain that you will eventually make a mistake that he can capitalize on.  

But Nelson’s major malfunction is that he doesn’t fight very often. He just shows up randomly after a long hiatus like an uninvited Kneehigh Park puppet. Gunnar treats fighting like it’s the Olympics, only fighting once every two to four years. My man looks like an Unsolved Mysteries age rendering of a missing person when you finally see him. You can barely tell it’s the same guy. Nelson will win this fight if he stays committed to his grappling. He averages nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and eight of his ten UFC wins came via submission. And Holland has been submitted four times in his career.   

Gunnar is the (-140) favorite, and Holland is the (+120) live dog. Holland will dominate the striking if he can keep the fight standing for long stretches. Gunnar's leaping style will put him in danger every time he closes the distance. But Holland will need a finish. A decision will heavily favor Gunnar’s superior grappling and riding out top control. And don’t sleep on Holland’s arm-triangle takedown defense. He needs to threaten chokes every time Gunnar level changes. Nelson’s value is strictly in a submission. Without one, you’ll be left assed-out like Tyson’s cheeks backstage. Nelson averages less than two SLpM. Damn, I really want to pick Kevin Holland. But trust doesn’t live here anymore. Gunnar Nelson via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Holland: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+900) Dec (+450) 

Nelson: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+200) Dec (+350)

Winner: Gunnar Nelson | Method: Decision

Nathaniel Wood (+125) vs. Morgan Charriere (-145)

Wood: DK: $7.5k | Charriere: DK: $8.7k

Always be wary of guys who use their full first name. It sounds like Nathaniel “Don’t Call Him Nate” Wood is in trouble every time you say his name, “Nathaniel Wood, you get over here this instant!” And as assuredly as you said that in a nagging woman’s voice, Nathaniel “Natty Ice” Wood will assuredly crack your ass lest you start thinking shit’s sweet. Nathaniel Wood is the leader of the Nerd Resistance Freedom Fighters who seeks retribution and revenge on behalf of all marginalized Nerds worldwide. But don’t get him confused for a member of the Fighting Nerds. Nathaniel just looks like one and hasn’t ascended to that level of ass-kicking yet. He looks like every kid who played the viola in the high school band. When Nathaniel steps into the cage with “Captain” Morgan Charrier, it will be a classic nerd vs. jock matchup and an undercover banger.   

Don’t let the Velcro shoes and tie-dye Marvel shirts fool you; parents only call you by your full name when you are a bad mother-shut-your-mouf. And Nathaniel Wood is a bad MF. This guy has had some impressive wins and losses since debuting in 2018. Wood has an excellent 8-3 UFC record and has only been finished once, and that came at the hands of John Dodson, a two-time title challenger. Bruce Lee said, “I fear not the man who has practiced ten thousand kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick ten thousand times.” Wood practiced a handful of basic combos ten thousand times. His fundamentals on the feet are elemental. And his hands are quicker than the speed of life. He has that blink-and-you're-forty hand speed. Blink again, and you’re back in diapers hand speed. And his hands are sharper than a shit-talker's tongue. Tight light hallways, Nathaniel’s hands beat you down the middle all night long. 

Wood’s special weapon is his geek-ish looks. He looks like a summer camp counselor at Lake Titicaca. Who named that shit? They put the greatest and the worst things together and made a word. Anywho, you might get to laughing like Charlie Murphy and his homies when Prince and his crew came out for the pick-up game wearing the same shit they had on in the club when you see Nathaniel Wood, but you won’t be laughing long. This kid is underrated and has a wealth of experience under the bright lights. He will be the higher output striker, averaging over five and a half SLpM compared to Morgan Charriere’s just over three and a half.   

Morgan Charriere is the sober The Weeknd, aka The Weekdy. He looks like a XXXtentacion/Tyrone Woodley remix. All you hear are air horns and DJ drops, “We da best!” when Charriere fights. His style’s resemblance to Tyrone Woodley’s is uncanny. He's like Woodley if he was buried in Pet Sematary after the Jake Paul fight. I kind of slept on this guy before his first three UFC bouts. He got robbed like Batman’s parents against Chepe Mariscal. He got shaken down for his dub, like LBJ, Reagan, Nixon, and Carter in Point Break, “I’m not a crook!” One of the judges even mooned Charriere on his way out of the Octagon with “thank you” written on his cheeks. Overall, Charriere is a classic explosive wrestler striker with no major holes in his game.   

Like all wrestler strikers, Charriere closes the distance with his rear hand and has solid power double legs. The knock against his ground game is that he is mostly position-over-submission or damage. Yo! Hit that Mobb Deep and Alchemist “Hold You Down!” If Charrier gets hold of you, he will Hold-You-Down! If you end up on your back, Charriere will Hold-You-Down! Charriere is 20-10 with twelve TKO/KOs and only three subs. On his feet, his best weapon is his body kicks. His kicks to the body will turn your innie into an outie real fookin’ quick. His major malfunction is his lazy-ass defense. Leave the empty milk carton in the fridge-ass defense. Sleep until noon-ass defense. Charrier exits the pocket with his hands down and never takes his head off the center line. Hands down, man down. Extended combinations are his kryptonite. 

Morgan Charriere is the (-170) favorite, and Nathaniel Wood is the (+140) live-ass dog. All of Charriere’s dubs came against suspect competition. And Nathaniel Wood has dubs over Andre Fili, Charles Joudain, John Castaneda, and Daniel Pineda. Wood will have a speed advantage, but Charriere will have the one-strike power advantage. I would give Charriere a slightly better shot at a finish. Wood’s chin has been a little touchy in recent fights. But I think this one will likely go the distance. This is a complete toss-up to me. At the end of the day, I think Nathaniel Wood might be a little undersized. Morgan Charriere via decision. On wax.  

Props

Charriere: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1200) Dec (+150)  

Wood: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+1400) Dec (+185)

Winner: Morgan Charriere | Method: Decision

Molly McCann (+170) vs.Alexia Thainara (-200)

McCann: DK: $7.3k | Thainara: DK: $8.9k

This is the token Molly McCann fight on a London main card. I have no idea who Alexia Thainara is. I’m just typing, homies. Istela Nunes was McCann’s original opponent, so I’m kind of caught with my pants down like Tyson backstage. I’m watching one of her fights and typing in real time. This is a WKO first – history is being made. Thainara is built like a Peloton trainer and has nasty little power doubles. I say little because she’s the size of a gymnast. She’s just a little ball of muscle. Her opponent just got back to her feet. Thainara better get this shit back to the mat because her striking is definitely a work in progress. If learning to strike was like building a house, she wouldn’t even have the foundation set. She’s out here throwing petulant overhands. She almost looks like when Mammy would chase you around the house with a chancla raised over her head, poised to throw it at your ass. When Thainara throws a leg kick, her hands fall to her waist. A McCann counter-right hand is just waiting for her chin. I’m into round two now, and I’m not sure how much longer I can last. This is an underhand softball toss for McCann.   

I had to bow out after round two. Don’t ever underestimate Molly McCann’s ability to fook up a sure deal. She got armbared by Julija Stoliarenko, and that’s Stoliarenko’s only move. And she managed to make Burna Brasil look like Anderson Silva in her most recent loss. If Molly McCann finds a way to lose this one, she will be a Molly Maid by next week. She’ll have to go full Laura Croft Tomb Raider and excavate the catacombs of Machu Picchu to find a way to lose this one. She might have to pop a Molly and escape reality if she loses this one. Molly’s major malfunction is that she gets Molly-whopped by decent competition. The only question is, is Alexia Thainara decent competition? IDK. On the feet, Molly uses emotions as a crutch for a lack of technique. Her response to everything is to get angry and swing wildly. But one thing you can’t take away from Molly is that she has that dog in her like a Cleveland Browns fan. 

Lol. Wow. I just checked the odds. Alexia Thainara is the (-200) favorite, and Molly is the (+165) dog of some type. I don’t know what to make of this fight. Maybe the oddsmakers know something I don’t. Thainara is 11-1 with one TKO/KO and six subs. I just figured it out. Molly McCann rocks a thirty-noine percent takedown defense. Throw all that other shit I said out the window. Thainara will likely ride out top control to a victory. If you’re playing this one, you’re a real savage. Play it for a decision. Fasntasy-wise, this one won’t likely provide a card flipper. I talked myself into Alexia Thainara via decision live on the WKO. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

McCann: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+1400) Dec (+275)  

Thainara: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+400) Dec (+120)

Winner: Alexia Thainara | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Leon Edwards ($7.6k): This pick came down to a choice between Edwards and Kevin Holland. I think Holland has a high upside but also comes with a massive downside should Gunnar take him down at will. Leon gives you two extra rounds to record significant strikes, and I think there will come a time when Sean Brady has to rely solely on his striking. Leon had a couple good moments against Belal Muhammad, taking Belal’s back at one point. He also successfully took down Usman in the first round of the second fight. If Edwards can keep the fight standing, he’s still a sniper on the feet. The downside is Leon’s output. This guy would still be the best striker in the division if he just let his hands go more.  

Nathaniel Wood ($7.5k): Wood vs. Charriere will eventually settle into a stand-up battle. I can see Charrier getting the fight to the mat, but Wood is no chump from his back. Wood is the higher output striker, averaging over five and a half SLpM compared to Charriere’s just over three and a half. The power advantage will belong to Charriere, but Wood will have a speed and technical advantage. There seems to be a point in every Wood fight where he drops his opponent. His hand speed and straight punches catch people by the boo-boo. Win or lose, this is a solid conservative pick to put some moderate (60-75) significant strikes on the board with the possibility of some control time.    

Jan Blachowicz ($7.2k): I think Jan is one of the few finishing threats on the Value Menu this week. I can see him grounding Ulberg and working his way to a late submission should Ulberg gas like he did in his debut. Ulberg has yet to be in a grinding scrap. And grinding, ugly scraps are Blachowicz’s specialty. My hesitance to pick Jan to win this fight is based on the fact that he’s forty-two years old and coming in off a long layoff. I have been striking out when picking fighters coming in off long layoffs recently (Marvin Vettori/Rafael Fiziev). The more active fighter always has an advantage. But Jan’s resume is far superior to Ulberg’s as Jan has fought and damn near beat the current and previous Champ. Jan won’t rack up high striking stats, but I like his upside of a possible late finish, barring an early stoppage. 

Clearance Rack

Chris Duncan ($6.9k): This kid is a Resident Evil zombie dog. Never forget his comeback KO of Charlie Campbell on the Contender Series after nearly sleeping in the opening minutes. All he has done since is go 3-1 with dubs over Yanal Ashmouz and Bolaji Oki. Duncan isn’t a smooth striker, but he has a heavy right hand and left hook. He also has a solid top game, and his opponent, Jordan Vucenic, aka the walking redacted classified document, showed some holes in his grappling in his debut against Guram Kutateladze. Also, Duncan is handy with guillotine chokes. If Vucenic gets lazy on one of his takedown attempts, he could get got like Bolaji Oki did. The odds on this one are a little skewed to me. This one should be a crunchy little banger.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

The Twenty Twen-Twen dub streak ended at noine. But we still hit on two of the three last week. We’ve hit on eleven of the last twelve sleepers, and there are some live veteran dogs at the top of the card this week.  

Leon Edwards (+140): Leon is still a sniper. You wanna run around talking about guns like Leon ain’t got none. What, you think he sold ‘em all? Headshot, bang! If the takedown well dries up on Sean Brady, Leon will still be the more dangerous, one-punch striker. And don’t sleep on Leon’s grappling. He is no chump on the mat, and, heading into his title run, Leon’s wrestling was the most improved aspect of his game. Belal Muhammad can take down anyone in the division, including Khamzat if he ever returns to welterweight. So don’t let that last fight fool you. A former champ one fight removed from his belt at plus money? That’s a steal. Leon’s downside is he can be broken. He often looks disinterested for long stretches. The gamble is betting on which Leon will show up. 

Jan Blachowicz (+250): These odds are way off. I could argue that Jan Blachowicz should be the favorite. Look at his resume. Then look at Ulberg’s. This is a stepping-stone fight. Ulberg is a front-end fighter. He gets out to fast starts and usually finishes opponents early. He becomes less dangerous as the fight progresses. Jan never fades. And he has already faced the two best strikers in the division and was never really in danger on the feet. The only reason Jan isn’t my official pick is the long layoff from shoulder surgery. But this is a classic put-my-money-where-my-mouf-isn't situation. Best believe I have an Andy Jack with Jan’s name on it. I also like the value of a late submission. But at (+250) straight-up, you don’t have to get cute with it.   

Nathaniel Wood (+130): When your parents call you by your first name, you know you’re a bad MF. Don’t let the band geek looks fool you; this kid is an ass-kicker. Wood has an excellent 8-3 UFC resume and has faced some tough competition. One of the reasons I didn’t pick Wood is because of the size difference. Wood made a name for himself at bantamweight and seems a little undersized since jumping to featherweight. I think he could get out-muscled by Charriere in the MMA positions (on the mat/in the clinch). But I think it will be a toss-up on the feet. Charriere tends to act too cool for school on the feet, often getting straight lazy with his defense and exiting the pocket with his hands down. Nate, I mean Nathaniel, could clip Charrriere if he extends his combinations consistently.   

Pick ‘Em

Jordan Vucenic (-415) vs. Chris Duncan (+310)  

Winner: Jordan Vucenic 

Method: Decision 

Jai Herbert (-110) vs. Chris Padilla (-110)  

Winner: Jai Herbert 

Method: Decision 

Lone’er Kavanagh (-300) vs. Felipe Dos Santos (+250)  

Winner: Lone’er Kavanagh 

Method: Decision 

Marcin Tybura (Even) vs. Mick Parkin (-120) 

Winner: Marcin Tybura 

Method: Decision 

Christian Duncan (+575) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+400) 

Winner: Christian Duncan 

Method: Decision 

Shauna Bannon (-165) vs. Puja Tomar (+140) 

Winner: Puja Tomar 

Method: Decision 

Nathan Fletcher (-115) vs. Caolan Loughran (-105) 

Winner: Nathan Fletcher 

Method: Decision 

Guram Kutateladze (-430) vs. Kaue Fernandes (+320) 

Winner: Guram Kutateladze 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.