Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Neil Magny (+525) vs. Carlos Prates (-800)

Magny: DK: $6.6k | Prates: DK:$9.6k

Everywhere he goes, people complain of a sour stench. They give him weary looks and pull their children close. His three-piece suit is in tatters and barely stays on his withered frame – the same suit he’s been wearing for months. Maggots and worms mark his recent presence: Neil was here. Like Bruce Willis in Sixth Sense, Neil Magny is a dead man walking. After being buried by Michael Morales in under one round in his most recent Octagon appearance, Neil Magny dug himself up like a reverse archeologist. Except his buried treasure was sunshine. He grabbed onto some grass, climbed out of his grave, and immediately headed to the same spot where he was TKO’d – the Octagon. And, at the sight of him, when they exclaim, “I thought you were dead!” Neil responds, “Hussle for death, no heaven for a gangster.”   

Yo! Hit that Lupe Fiasco “The Cool!” 

Say What You Say like Em and Dre, but when you speak on Neil Magny, you better give him the Birdman treatment and put some respek on his name. This guy marches off to war, knowing he ain’t coming back. He’s Geralt of Riva, the Witcher, fighting nothing but monsters every time he steps into the cage. Magny’s opponent on Saturday night, Carlos Prates, is straight out of a Lovecraft story. If Neil Magny beats him, the King will give Magny a lordship and his daughter’s hand in marriage. Monsters Inc: Neil Magny is the CEO of that bish. If you have a promising prospect with eighteen finishes in twenty career wins and can’t find anyone to fight him, Neil Magny is your huckleberry.   

Yo! Hit that Pharcyde “Runnin’!”  

Can’t keep runnin’ awaaaaay! But Neil Magny’s hairline can. It’s about to lap his forehead. My man has a beforehead forehead. Sweat dries before it reaches his eyebrows. Stephen A. vs. Neil Magny, the hairline World Series. Speaking as a man whose rocking Fire Marshall Bill fade, you’d be foolish to take us lightly just because we don’t use shampoo. Come Saturday night, Neil won’t be alone in the Octagon, all those whose once luscious locks are losing the battle to gravity will be with him in spirit. And he’ll need all the support he can get because this is a terrible matchup for Neil. He will have to travel a Lemmiwinks path to victory straight through the colon. He’ll have to strap on his gasoline boots and acetone suit and walk through hell. Gasoline Dreams got Magny waking up in hot sweats. 

Yo! Hit that Outkast shit! 

Neil’s path to victory lies on the mat. He can’t stand with Prates any longer than it takes Neil to close the distance. Historically, Neil’s length has caused many good fighters problems on the feet. He has a knack for disrupting your flow and making it hard to get off combinations. But over the years, Magny’s striking has become a liability. I haven’t seen Carlos Prates on the mat. That’s plenty of reason for Magny to make this an ugly fight in the clinch and try to drag Prates down. Or, at the very least, force Prates to burn energy defending takedowns.   

But Magny’s striking isn’t his major malfunction. Magny is the conductor on the Bipolar Express when he steps into the Octagon. He has two faces like the Mayor in The Nightmare Before Christmas. I call Magny a poet without a muse. Sometimes, he just goes through the motions like a third-base coach. Neil will dog you out for fifteen to twenty-five minutes, or he will get run over like Suge Knight driving through a parking lot. There is no in-between. And it’s nearly impossible to tell which one showed up until it’s too late. Of his noine career losses, Magny has been finished six times. Magny can be broken like anything a toddler touches. 

And that’s a bad look when facing Carlos Prates. Fighters explode like vampires in daylight when Prates lands his left hand. Prates has a .50 caliber left hand. Closed casket – there's no closure when Carlos Prates’ left hand lands. His left hand will make your head spin like the Exorcist girl. It’ll turn you into the Legend of Sleepy Hollow real fookin’ quick. Fook your face; he’ll take your head... off. Gza has Liquid Swords, and Prates has liquid hands. It sounds like a 0.0 dive off the Olympic high dive when Prates lands. In his last fight, he left Li Jingliang lying on the mat, looking like when the alarm goes off, and you contemplate quitting your job instead of getting up.  

But Prates isn’t all left hands. He also has a special move: the Tiger Knee. Prates is the real-life Sagat. His standing knees leave holes in you like Andy Dufresne’s cell. Prates has Muay Thai Muay Thai. As in, straight out of Thailand. This dude has countless Muay Thai fights in Thailand and uses kicks, as well as he uses his hands. His left high kick looks like Ken Griffey Jr.’s swing, the sweetest swing in MLB history. Prates is also longer than the client list and uses every inch of his reach. And the cherry on top is that this guy wants all the smoke like the lady in that anti-smoking commercial who inhales a cig through the trachea hole in her throat. Prates is aggressive and will risk it all on every exchange. His major malfunction is that he is hittable and relies on his lead shoulder to deflect strikes more than he relies on a traditional guard. He isn’t invincible. You just have to be able to hang with him long enough to land a kill shot.   

Prates is 20-6 for his career with fifteen TKO/KOs and three subs and is riding a ten-fight dub streak. Fook Prates’ Fantasy stats; his value is in a TKO/KO finish. He has finished noine fights in a row, including all three UFC appearances. Prates will be the (-675) disrespectful favorite, and Magny will be the (+460) dog awaiting euthanasia. This is the second fight in a row that Magny is a massive dog, and it’s hard to imagine him winning this fight. He has to get Prates against the cage and to the mat. If he can get this to the third round and beyond, he’ll have a chance. But that’s a massive IF.   

Last week, Brandon Moreno’s jab got us back into the main event dub column. Never bet against a MexiCAN’s heart. This week almost feels like a trap pick... Carlos Prates via TKO, round two. Put it on wax.   

Props

Prates: TKO/KO (-400) Sub (+800) Dec (+800) 

Magny: TKO/KO (+2000) Sub (+1600) Dec (+1100)

Winner: Carlos Prates | Method: TKO Rd.2

Ricky Turcios (+280) vs. Bernardo Sopaj (-360)

Turcios: DK: $7.2k | Sopaj: DK: $9k

*The co-main event Cody Garbrandt vs. Miles Johns was canceled mid-week. This matchup is currently slated as the co-main event. (Shrug emoji)

Ricky Snow, the bastard son of Anton, the bowl-cut guy with the air compressor from No Country for Old Men, is back. My man, Ricky Turcios, is built like Slinky Dog from Toy Story, but that didn’t stop him from winning the Ultimate Fighter in 2021. So far, Turcios hasn’t lived up to the high draft status of winning the show. But Turcios has also been fed to real heathens like Aiemann Zahabi, who dominated Pedro Munhoz last week, and the Easter Island head Raul Rosas Jr. Add another name, Bernardo Sopaj, to the list of fighters Ricky has been sacrificed to. Bernardo’s nickname is Nardo. What up, Nardo? Don’t let Sopaj’s debut loss fool you. This guy has the makings of a real undercover savage, and this should be a dope little showcase fight for him.   

In his debut, Sopaj was on some Van Helsing shit, fighting a real monster, Vinicius Oliveira, on short notice. For two rounds, Sopaj looked like the second coming of Ilia Topuria. Sopaj straight plagiarized Topuria’s style – copied and pasted Topuria’s debut performance against Youssef Zalal. But Sopaj forgot to delete the hyperlinks. At the end of the second round, Sopaj disappeared on some D.B. Cooper type-ish. Sopaj looked like the Yankees in the fifth inning of game five of the World Series. Homie was bombing downhill, dominating Oliveira on the mat. But then he caught the speed wobbles and decided to jump off. Never jump off when you get the speed wobbles. Your feet can’t keep up, and disaster is imminent. Homie went from the Diddy to the Meek real quick and got KO’d with a flying knee in the third round. 

But for nearly two rounds, Sopaj looked like a future contender. Sopaj has excellent takedowns and delivers beatings like watching HBO when your parents went to bed. When he gets you to the mat, Sopaj looks like a bullied kid finally enacting comeuppance. He looks like Ralphie beating the bully’s ass in A Christmas Story. “Are you gonna cry, little baby?” Sopaj just snaps and starts wailing on you while all the kids on the playground exact retribution vicariously from the sidelines. This guy has all the Topuria feels, and this fight against Turcio feels like a 3-0 grooved fastball from the UFC matchmakers to get him back on track. His major malfunction is his cardio. But his issues could have stemmed from taking the Oliveira fight on short notice. I haven’t seen much of Sopaj’s striking, but his path to victory will be taking Turcios down and punishing him with ground and pound. Sopaj is 11-3 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and three subs. Dude is a finisher.   

Diary of a Wimpy Kid is Ricky Turcios's memoir. He fights like the coach's son on the team. If fighting was baseball, Turcios would bat ninth and play right field. Shout out to all the kids who batted ninth and played right field. They call Ricky Turcios (they, meaning me) Mattress Ricky because he has memory foam hands. When Turcios starts letting his hands go, it’s like walking through a self-serve drive-thru car wash. He just gyrates and wings flimsy punches. My man’s hands are made of Play-Doh. But what Turcios lacks in athleticism and power, he makes up with heart. He has that inside dog in him. That Gucci purse Paris Hilton dog in him. Overall, Ricky’s style is hard to make sense of. You need subtitles to interpret his erratic style.   

Turcios is at his best on the mat. He rolls like 90s Dicks (private I’s) when they enter a sketchy room when the fight hits the mat. Turcios has crackhead cardio – that Tyrone Biggums “I smoke rocks!” cardio. Dude never stops moving and creates chaotic scrambles. Turcio will likely end up on his back against Sopaj, and he will have to survive Sopaj’s heavy ground and pound. Turcios will have a shot at stealing the fight late if he can survive early, using his superior cardio to push a pace Sopaj can’t keep up with. Turcios is 12-4 with three TKO/KOs and one sub. Yeah, he has that whiskey and dates that look like Li Jingliang finishing rate. The only play for Turcios will always be a decision. 

Sopaj will be the (-280) favorite, and Turcios will be the mangy (+225) dog. The only route to victory I see for Tucios is creating wild scrambles and forcing Sopaj to gas late. Otherwise, Sopaj has the style to dominate Turcios on the mat. A TKO/KO finish is in play for Sopaj, but Turcios is generally tough to finish. I like playing Sopaj for a decision. Fantasy-wise, Sopaj scored three takedowns and landed forty-five significant strikes in roughly two rounds of work against Oliveira. His value will be largely in takedowns and top control. Bernardo Sopaj via decision. On wax.  

Props

Sopaj: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+700) Dec (-105) 

Turcios: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+1400) Dec (+550)

Winner: Bernardo Sopaj | Method: Decision

Reiner de Ridder (-290) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+240)

de Ridder: DK: $9.1k | GM3: DK:$7.1k

This one could have some ancient Roman bathhouse feels to it if it hits the ground. This is a rare grappler vs. grappler matchup. You already know when two grapplers match up, a tepid kickboxing match is always in play. Reiner de Ridder is making his UFC debut and is a former two-division One FC Champion. This guy has some creative submissions. De Ridder ran into only one man who could beat him in One FC, the current light heavyweight and heavyweight killer Anatoly Malykhin. Don’t sleep on One FC, homies. Wait a minute! Didn’t you used to hate on One FC on this here breakdown? Why you bringing up old shit? One FC is the best promotion in the world, not named UFC. This fight will be a solid test and showcase for de Ridder. 

Reiner de Ridder’s special move is the inverted triangle choke. He hits the choke from the bottom position while in side control – a place in which you generally feel safe if you’re on top. The inverted triangle from the bottom looks like a precarious position. We might have to rename it the Diddy Choke. If someone walked in on you practicing this move on a homie, wifey might serve you with papers. If ya know what I mean. This fookin’ guy will TAP you like military funerals. Bust out the bugles, homies. This guy will submit you like official documents. But de Ridder’s red flag on the mat is that he doesn’t have traditional level change takedowns. Instead, he relies on the clinch. His clinch game is tight like a sudden bout of the bubble guts. De Ridder relies on the clinch like the first and fifteenth. Space is his enemy. He needs to operate within tight quarters at all times. 

Why? Because his stand-up ain’t it. He’s like old-school pitchers in the National League on the feet when pitchers had to hit and would strike out every at-bat. He’s an automatic out on the feet. If de Ridder has to stand and bang, he’s going down 1-2-3. He’s the type to bunt with two strikes. You have to pinch hit for him on the feet. This guy is an empty beer bottle set up one hundred paces away; he’s target practice on the feet, even for a guy with rush hour hand speed like Gerald Meerschaert. De Ridder has to close the distance, push Meerschaert against the cage, and drag him to the mat. Meerschaert rocks a thirty-four percent takedown defense like hand-me-down holey underoos. De Ridder is 17-2 for his career with four TKO/KOs and eleven subs. And both his losses came to the same man.   

You better recognize Gerald Meershcaert like he looks familiar. The man who doesn’t Amber Heard the bed; he just Meerschaerts it. This is the only time Gerald Meerschaert should keep a fight standing. Which means he will come out like Chimaev, shooting double legs from across the Octagon. The only way he can lose this fight is if he ends up on his back. I know, I know. His hand speed is like city buses making stops on every corner. His hands travel with the emergency brake on, making that grating, grinding sound. And I know, I know, this guy was on the season finale of Hoarders, and they couldn’t even get one foot inside his door because he has so many subs lying around. Not even buffering can stop this man from finishing. You want the man with twenty-noine career subs to stand and bang? With number thirty blowing kisses and batting its eyelashes at him? 

Yes. Meerschaert’s elite ground game only translates to the top position. He can’t afford to end up on his back against de Ridder. Plus, the man who lives to choke people, has been submitted himself eight times in his career. Throw the Fantasy stats away for this one. Without a finish for either fighter, you’ll be walking away Fantasy points famished like eating at a five-star restaurant and the portions are like Costco samples. De Ridder is the (-290) favorite, and Meerschaert is the (+240), dare I say, live-ass dog. Meerschaert can win this fight on the feet and if he stumbles into the top position. Although his hands are slow, Meerschaert has some sneaky power. Meerschaert is almost always a live dog. I finally picked a Meerschaert fight correctly in his last bout, a dub against Edmen Shahbazyan. But I’m usually dead wrong about him. When you expect the world from him, he hands you Blythe, California. Reiner de Ridder via arm-triangle, round two. Put it on wax. 

Props

de Ridder: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+165) Dec (+215) 

Meershcaert: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+500) Dec (+800)

Winner: Reiner de Ridder | Method: Arm-Triangle Rd.2

Luana Pinheiro (-400) vs. Gillian Robertson (+300)

Pinheiro: DK: $7k | Robertson: DK: $9.2k

Luana “Left Eye” Pinheiro is back. Pinheiro looks like she’ll go straight Lisa Lopes on your ass and burn your fookin’ house down on some Andre Rison type-shit. You lose your home insurance if the insurance company catches wind that you’re dating Luana Pinheiro. State Farm won’t even fook with you. Pinheiro has those Hall & Oates “Crazy Eyes.” Yo! Hit that shit! When Luana Pinheiro steps into the Octagon, she’s gotta be startin’ somethin’ like Michael Jackson. Luana wanna be startin’ somethin’. She’s gotta be startin’ somethin’. Her style is like your kid’s first time behind the wheel of a Power Wheels, all gas, no break. But the kryptonite to an aggressive fighter is an opponent with excellent takedowns. Gillian Robertson is a grappling savant and will make this a classic striker vs. grappler matchup.   

Pinheiro fights like driving one hunnid miles an hour everywhere she goes, in school zones, neighborhoods, and Home Depot parking lots, while steering with her knees. You need ‘Oh shit!” handles just watching her scrap, lest you topple out of your Lazy Boy. She has that scorned lover aggression – she fights like she found the password to your phone – held it up to your face while you were asleep. When in public, you have to walk around with Virna Jandiroba's eyes if other Bettys are around, lest you catch Pinheiro’s ire. Two and four seam Rick Vaughn fastballs; that’s all Pinheiro throws on the feet. She’s the Wild Thing on the mound and might fook around and hit-batter the bases loaded. This lady swings out of her crooked Ugg boots with every exchange. She’ll go straight Randy Johnson and kill two birds with one right hand.   

But all that power and aggression comes at a price. That price would be her cardio. Pinheiro only gets about ten miles to the gallon. Triple A has to roadside assist Pinheiro around the halfway point of every fight. And she lacks any kind of a ground game. She rocks a sixty-six percent takedown defense, which isn’t terrible. But when she ends up on her back, it’s a wrap. Wrap it up, B. And that will be her downfall against Gillian Robertson.  

Gillian Robertson is the female Darren Elkins minus all the blood. She’ll tap you like Morse Code. Robertson is a lady on the feet and a freak on the mat. The mat is lava when you fight Robertson. She turns you into Pompei people, your last moments immortalized for eternity when your ass hits the mat against Gillian Robertson. People come by and stare at the plaster cast of you tapping to a rear-naked choke. Robertson will choke you like the gallows. She throws submissions like jabs. She’s out there playing HORSE with submissions. Chain submissions – one sub attempt leads to the other. She throws submission combinations. And she’s M.O.P., Mash Out Posse from the top position. Hit that “Anti Up!” Robertson’s submissions are deadly because she builds a foundation of heavy ground and pound before going sub-hunting. Robertson is a dual-finishing threat from the top.   

As you might guess, Robertson’s major malfunction is her striking. She has that podium head movement. She’s cruising around in a motorcade on the feet if you know what I mean. Her lack of striking works to her advantage because it invites strikers to attack her, and she uses the aggression to level change. Unlike many submission Banksy’s, Robertson has a full arsenal of takedowns and uses her striking only to draw the opponent into takedowns. If the takedown well dries up and she gets stuck on the feet, it’s a wrap. Wrap it up, B. And that will be her downfall against Luana Pinheiro.   

Robertson will be the (-310) favorite, and Pinheiro will be the (+255) stray dog. Is there any Fantasy value in Pinheiro? Yes, but the window of opportunity to score a TKO/KO will be small. Any time the fight is standing, she can finish Robertson. But that won’t be long. She may only have a couple exchanges to create a potential fight-ending sequence. Other than that, she will be defending takedowns and scrambling to her feet and not spending time recording striking stats. The play for Robertson is a submission. She has noine career subs and is quickly becoming the female Charles Oliveira. Gillian Robertson via rear-naked choke, round two. Wax on, wax off. 

Props

Robertson: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+110) Dec (+250)  

Pinheiro: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+2000) Dec (+600)

Winner: Gillian Robertson | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Matthew Semelsberger ($7.7k): Let me be Frank with you. Who the fook is Frank? This card lost some key fights, including the co-main event when Cody Garbrandt dropped his fight with Miles Johns mid-week. Finding Fantasy points on the Value Menu this week will be a monumental task. Matthew Semelsberger’s right hand is one of the best chances of finding a finish on the Value Menu this week. Win or lose, Semelsberger almost always lands a right hand that ends or nearly ends the fight. He has that Quagmire “Giggity-goo” right hand – all veiny and shit. Semelsberger can end any fight with one punch, and he has some solid offensive wrestling. He will be up against a very mid-fighter in Charlie Radtke, in which Semelsberger should have an edge on the feet. Should. The red flag for Semelsberger will be his forty-five percent takedown defense. Radtke will look to put Semels on his back and ride out top control. If Semels can’t stay on his feet, he’ll be a Fantasy dud. But that right hand is the great equalizer, and he's very good at landing it, especially early.   

Gerald Meerschaert ($7.1k): Gerald’s Game is winning when you least expect it and losing when you least expect it. I’m expecting Reneir de Ridder to win this fight, but Meerschaert is one of the best submission Van Gogh’s in the sport. Homie has twenty-noine career subs and finished thirty-four of his thirty-seven career dubs. When GM3 wins, he wins by finish. De Ridder will make his promotional debut after an impressive two-division championship run with One FC. But no lights are brighter than those shining down on the Octagon. Meerschaert should have an edge on the feet, and if he can end up in the top position, he can submit anyone. GM3’s downside is that he is an all-or-nothing roster move. There’s a good chance he will spend significant time on his back and has been submitted six times in his career. But he will remain a finishing threat until the final bell.   

Antonio Trocoli ($7.6k): This guy was run through the wringer a few weeks ago. He had several fights fall through at the last minute and eventually ended up in the cage across from Shara Magomedov in his UFC debut in June. Trocoli actually held his own until the third round, when his gas tank was completely drained. This guy is big for the middleweight division and will have a decided grappling advantage against his opponent, Tresean Gore. Gore looked the part of a savage striker coming off the Ultimate Fighter, but it hasn’t translated under the bright lights. Gore has a 4-2 career record and is officially 1-2 in the UFC, and his grappling is highly sus. Trocoli will have a massive advantage in the clinch and on the mat. Trocoli is 12-4 with three TKO/KOs and six subs and has far more experience than Gore. I like Trocoli as a dog and as a finishing threat.   

$6k Bathroom Clearance Rack

Neil Magny ($6.6k): Neil can make shit ugly. His range is always a problem, and he can turn this into an MMA fight and not just a kickboxing match with four-ounce gloves. Also, we have no idea what Prates’s gas tank will look like in the third round and beyond. This will be a classic survive-and-advance situation for Magny. The longer the fight goes, the better chance he will have of pulling off the upset. And I think the odds are very skewed in favor of a guy in Prates who is very hittable and has never been tested. Neil can grind this out, and even in a loss, he can score respectable striking and control stats if he can extend it to the later rounds.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Antonio Trocoli (+155): This might be the worst week ever for dogs. Prop finishes might be the way to go this week. But I like Trocoli’s matchup, and he hung tough with Shara Bullet on short notice. He’s a grappling specialist, facing a guy in Tresean Gore with limited experience and grappling. Trocoli has fought at light heavyweight and can bully Gore in the clinch and on the mat.  

Matthew Semelsberger (+140): That right hand. He’s gonna do it to ya every time. He lands that right hand every fight. Semelsberger will have a power advantage on the feet if he can keep it there. But there is a clear path to victory against Semelsberger on the mat. If the takedown well dries up on Charlie Radtke, Semelsberger can finish the fight on the feet.  

Pick ‘Em

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+375) vs. Denise Gomes (-525)  

Winner: Denise Gomes 

Method: Decision 

Elizeu Dos Santos (-550) vs. Nicholas Dalby Zach Scroggin (+390) 

Winner: Elizeu Dos Santos 

Method: Decision 

Mansur Malik (-370) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+285)  

Winner: Mansur Malik 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Matthew Semelsberger (+140) vs. Charlie Radtke (-165) 

Winner: Charlie Radtke 

Method: Decision 

Cody Stamann (+230) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (-280) 

Winner: Da'Mon Blackshear 

Method: Decision 

Melissa Mullins (-250) vs. Klaudia Sygula (+210) 

Winner: Klaudia Sygula 

Method: Decision 

Gaston Bolanos (+185) vs. Cortavious Romious (-225) 

Winner: Gaston Bolanos 

Method: Decision 

Tresean Gore (-170) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+155) 

Winner: Antonio Trocoli 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.