Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Brandon Moreno (-240) vs. Steve Erceg (+180)

Moreno: DK: $8.6k | Erceg: DK:$7.6k

Once upon a time in Mexico, a Desperado single-handedly saved the flyweight division from annihilation. Seeking revenge on the fight lord who cut him from UFC in 2018, Brandon Moreno became the promotion’s first Mexican-born Champion. Countless ensuing wars saw the title change hands. But in the end, the Desperado became a two-time Champ. After successfully defending his belt twice, a foe from Moreno’s past, known to locals as Toja Cat, resurfaced and ended the Desperado’s reign. Today, local lure describes a man traveling the countryside of Mexico, a guitar case his only possession, singing a song about the day he will regain his lost belt. El Mariachi, the people call the man, some noting his resemblance to the old Desperado who once ruled the flyweight division. If anybody can reinstitute Mexico's fight-greatness, it is El Mariachi. 

There aren’t many fighters I enjoy writing about more than Brandon Moreno. Few fighters evoke the classic fight themes of heart and the dogged pursuit of the ultimate goal more than Brandon Moreno. Superior physical attributes (speed and power) Moreno has never had those. Elite technical abilities? Nope. Moreno’s special power is making the most of the least. Give him an inch, and he’ll take a mile. Are you a MexicCAN or a MexiCAN’T? Even if Moreno never touches the belt again, you know which one he is.   

El Mariachi out-dogs you. He has those Mr. Burns dogs in him. “Release the hounds!” Moreno has that dog in him like a Black Mirror Metalhead dog found a Resident Evil zombie dog in heat. My man is a walking K-9 unit. They use Brandon Moreno to raid trap houses. Brandon Moreno ain’t the first dog that shitted on ya lawn. The arena’s custodians (Janitors if you want to be a Richard about it) have to bust out the pooper scoopers after a Moreno fight. His corner carries a roll of little plastic bags to clean up between rounds. TDE, Brandon Moreno is an unofficial member of Top Dawg Entertainment because he has so much fookin’ dawg in him. His debut album “Cracked Steve Erceg’s Ass” is set to drop next week.  

Don’t get it twisted like Mobb Deep; dog and heart are not synonymous. Some have one or the other, but few have both. Moreno has more heart than an EKG. More heart than a defibrillator. Homie doesn’t need a bulletproof vest in a shootout because his heart is bulletproof. Someday, they’ll bury Brandon Moreno in a Heart-Shaped Box. Yo! Hit that Nirvana! You could pull Moreno’s heart from his chest on some Indiana Jones and The Temple of Doom type-shit, and it will go right on beating. You could then go and bury it under your floorboards, and it would keep right on beating, “Thump-thump, thump-thump.” 

The Key to every Brandon Moreno fight is his jab. It dictates everything he and the opponent do. He will Castor Troy you from the outside and build short combinations off it or level change. Soon, you start reacting to jabs that aren’t there. Moreno couldn’t get his jab sizzling against Brandon Royval in the rematch, and Royval dominated the striking. It was the jab that won the belt for Moreno. He used it to neutralize Deiveson Figueiredo’s far superior power. And once you start covering up, Moreno can mix in occasional level changes to keep you on your toes like a midget at a urinal. In addition to four SLpM, Moreno averages over a takedown and a half per fifteen minutes. His wrestling is underrated. 

At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, I don’t think it’s far-fetched to say Moreno can get the belt back. And if he does.... Yo! Hit that Johnny Depp in “Once Upon a Time in Mexico!” 

“It will be too good. It will be so good that when I’m finished with it, I’ll pay my check, walk straight into the kitchen, and shoot the cook. Because that’s what Brandon Moreno does. He restores the balance to the flyweight division.”  

Steve Erceg had a Hawk Tua girl twelve minutes of fame before falling off like a crypto rug-pull against Kai-Kara France. After just three UFC bouts, he got the Willy Wonka golden ticket for a title shot. And he fooked around and damn near won the belt. He had a Jeremy Lin “Lin Sanity” run to the top. Erceg was sleeping on a homie’s couch and fighting for the UFC world title.   

“Life’s a trip, qué no?" 

“That’s some trippy-ass shit, holmes.”  

They call Steve Erceg “Astro Boy” because he will sneak up on ya like an Astro van, all white with no windows, in a Walmart parking lot. Steve will break you off and end your career like AstroTurf. You recognize Steve Erceg like he looks familiar because he resembles seventy-five percent of the male population.  Erceg looks like Rock Bottom Aaron Rogers. Yo! Hit that Slim Shady! You meet guys that look like Steve Erceg every day. He’s a blue-collar Jason Borne, Mistaken Identity. The Simpsons even created a character inspired by Erceg called Frank Grimes. Homie looks like he lives in a single room above a bowling alley. To bullies, Erceg looks like a free Timex Indiglow watch, a pair of size ten Crocs, and an Ecto Cooler. But don’t let any of that fool you. Steve Erceg is not to be trifled with. 

Erceg is a Sadie Hawkins striker - a counter-striker you have to invite to the dance. Slip n’ Rips and same-time counters are Erceg’s special moves on the feet. Going into the Toja Cat fight, I thought Erceg’s striking was his weakness. But he all but dominated the striking after the first round. He even looked good in the opening minutes of the Kara France fight before he got got. But Erceg is special on the mat. Toja took him down noine times, but Erceg was never in much danger and managed to get back to his feet every time. Erceg rolls like Zig Zags and hunts necks like Mossy Oak and poison ivy. He has a 12-3 record with two TKO/KOs and six subs. Overall, Erceg has no major holes in his game. He is an all-around Fantasy point scorer, a utility player who can play any position in the field. 

Fantasy-wise, these guys have nearly identical stats. Both average around four SLpM, close to a takedown and a half per fifteen minutes, with takedown defenses near sixty percent. This could turn into a firefight on the mat at some point. Moreno will be the (-200) favorite, and Erceg will be the (+165) live-ass dog. Erceg is good. Don’t let the last loss fool you. Had Erceg not shot an errant takedown at the beginning of the fifth round against Toja, he could have won that round on the feet and walked away with the belt. I would give Moreno a slightly better shot at a finish, but I see this one going the distance. 

We got back in the main event dub column last week. Sean Brady clearly reads the WKO and took my advice. He went full Wayne Brady on Leon Edwards. It was a continuation of the Belal fight for Leon. This week’s pick seems a little too clear for comfort. Erceg will be a live dog. But when it comes to dogs, Moreno is the GOAT. Brandon Moreno via decision. Put it on wax.  

Props

Moreno: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+800) Dec (+110) 

Erceg: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+1800) Dec (+275)

Winner: Brandon Moreno | Method: Decision

Drew Dober (-120) vs. Manuel Torres (+100)

Dober: DK: $8k | Torres: DK: $8.2k

Yo! Hit that George Zimmer from Men’s Wearhouse! “You’re gonna like the way this fight looks; I guarantee it.” Second rounds need not apply. One of these guys is about to get got with the quickness. Get down, get down, get down with the quickness! Manuel Torres is a Kamikaze striker who fights like he’s on a suicide mission with no intentions of coming back. My man gets his affairs in order before every fight. And you already know the MMA Rain Man, Drew Dober. You can recognize his jawline from a mile away. Except, it might not be recognizable after Manuel Torres is finished. This one will play out like every nuclear doomsday scenario, with both fighters mashing the red button and taking us all with them.   

Manuel Torres gets out of pocket like loose change while exchanging in the pocket. This guy is the definition of a voyeur striker. Torrez is a striking deviant. He goes full full-frontal on every exchange. The authorities raid the Octagon and slap Torres with indecent exposure charges when he lets his hands go. ESPN blurs out Torres’s hands when he gets to slanging fists lest they be fined by the FCC. You have to cover your kids’ eyes when Torres fights. They only show Manuel Torres fights after midnight, like old-school GGW Spring Break commercials. Torres is a staunch defensive atheist. His offense is his defense. My man has that Steve Nash on the Suns Mike D’Antoni offense/defense. The Greatest Show on Canvas, Torres has to outscore you to win. This guy has the 2001 St. Louis Rams offense. Torres wings punches from his waist at a clip of over seven SLpM. He overwhelms with barrages of wide, looping hooks and overhands. He rushes you like old-school Black Friday sales when they open the doors at midnight.   

But all that offense comes at a cost to his defense. Hands down, man down. Torres never covers up because covering up is a sign of weakness. In his last bout against Ignacio Bahamondes, Torres went anti-Epstein – he did hang himself. He kept running into the same counter-right hand repeatedly. Torres has zero footwork. He only attacks up the middle in a straight line. And when he throws, his hands drop, and his chin goes straight into the air. It looks like he’s trying to keep his head above water when he engages. He smells what The Rocks is cooking when he lets his hands go. Get a KO or Die Trying. That’s Torres’s motto. Check this shit out: Torres is 15-3 with seven TKO/KOs and seven subs, and all but one fight ended in the first round. All three of his losses came in the first round, too. The key to beating Torres is getting out of the first round.   

Easier said than done. But if anyone can do it, Drew Dober’s chin can. Michelangelo sculpted Drew’s jawline. His jawline is sharper than hindsight 20/20 vision. Sharper than a Cybertruck’s trunk. MC Ren, Cube, and Dre couldn’t Chin Check Drew Dober. Yo! Hit that NWA! Drew Dober is the J.P. Prewett of chin models. His chin was featured in the 1973 Bulova watch catalog. You've probably seen Dober’s chin in several Gillette razor commercials. When he’s not fighting, they keep Drews chin roped off like an exhibit in the museum. People often get caught staring at his chin. 

“Uh, excuse me. My eyes are up here, buddy.” 

Dober isn’t all chin; he has feelings too. And a left hand that cracks like the 80s. Cracks like Bobby and Whitney. Cracks like fault lines in Southern California. Dober is a classic Flanders Leftorium striker. His solution to every problem in life is to throw a left hand at it.  

“Drew, how do we balance the national budget?” 

“Throw a left hand.”  

Dober stays on his toes like a ballet dancer as he moves around the Octagon while throwing left hands. He just seems to levitate around the cage. The number one rule when fighting Drew Dober is to keep your back away from the cage. Ask King Green about that. King was boxing Dober’s face off for two rounds until he got trapped against the cage and immediately slept with a left hand. Dober started this KO’ing King Green shit. Dober will be at a big size and reach disadvantage against Torres. He will have to find ways to get inside and unload short combinations while not eating an errant Torres bomb. If he can get to the second round, go all in on Dober to win the fight.   

Dober is 27-14 with fourteen TKO/KOs and six subs. He will be the lower output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM. But Dober’s output will be far more consistent than Torres’. Torres will be the slight (-120) favorite, and Dober will return even money. This is the perfect scrap for live betting if it’s available in your state. The play for Torres is a first-round TKO/KO. The play for Dober is a mid to late TKO/KO. Fantasy-wise, one of these guys will be a stud, and one will be a bust because someone is gonna get slept. Damn, I’m stuck on this one. Dober is coming in off back-to-back Ls, including a serious ass-whoopin' at the hands of Jean Silva in his most recent bout. The reach advantage is what worries me the most about Dober. If he can draw out Torres’ aggression and counter, he will have a chance. But I have to ride with Torres’ overwhelming aggression. Manuel Torres via TKO, round one. Put it on wax.   

Props

Torres: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+400) Dec (+1100) 

Dober: TKO/KO (+130) Sub (+1200) Dec (+800)

Winner: Manuel Torres | Method: TKO Rd.1

Kelvin Gastelum (+250) vs. Joe Pyfer (-310)

Gastelum: DK: $6.9k | Pyfer: DK:$9.3k

Separated at birth Nasrat Haqparast is back. The new Hall of Fame inductee, Kelvin Gastelum, is back in the middleweight division. Being an active Hall of Famer is the ultimate flex. Imagine inducting Patrick Mahomes into the Hall of Fame this year and him doing post-fight pressers in the canary yellow jacket every week. That shit would be so cold you could see his breath in one-hundred-degree weather. So cold you catch a chill like a poltergeist bumped into you when he’s nearby. Gastelum was one-half of the greatest title fight in middleweight history against Stylebender. That fight solidified Adesanya’s greatness and says a lot about how good Gastelum was. Was... because we haven’t seen the Gastelum that showed up that night since. He’s been on a gradual decline. But there’s no shame in that. And there’s no shame in becoming a gatekeeper – a term of endearment and not derogatory. That’s what Gastelum will be against the scary striker, Joe Pyfer.    

As dope as Gastelum has been for over a decade, this fight is about Joe Pyfer, aka the Pied Pyfer, aka Pyfer Sutherland, aka Pyfe Dawg. So what’s, so what’s, so what’s the scenario? The scenario is that Joe Pyfer will bag you like grocery clerks. Paper or plastic? That’s why they call him “Bodybagz.” Pyfer is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo brought to life like a Ghostbusters villain. This guy’s fights read like Cliff Notes, mere summaries of actual fights. Highlights of his fights are just gifs. Of his sixteen career fights, half ended in the first round. Such was the case in his most recent appearance against Marc-Andre Barriault. Pyfer left Barriault like Max left Gaethje. Barriault looked like Bob Knight face down in his grave so the world can kiss his ass.   

Pyfer gained notoriety in 2022 on the Contender Series as a right-hand extremist. His right hand is his strength and his weakness. If he touches you with it, you’ll explode like vampires in sunlight. But, sometimes, he is also a little too dependent on his right hand. If Pyfer lost it in a freak farming accident and had to rely on his left hand, he’d walked around with shitty drawers and starve to death. But Pyfer sets it up by changing levels and attacking the body. This guy will fook up your guts quicker than Calcutta street tacos. Pyfer will fook your liver up quicker than handles of moonshine – than swallowing a whole bottle of NSAIDs. When you drop your hands to defend, he tees off on your head like Topgolf.   

But never forget when Jack Hermansson put Joe in his Pyfer and smoked him. Hermansson made smoke rings out of Pyfer. He hotboxed the hoopty with Pyfer like an episode of The Smokebox with B-Real. Homie set off the fire sprinklers, smoking Joe Pyfer. How did Hermansson do it? He survived the first seven minutes. Pyfer hits the wall like Sonny Bono hits trees. He gassed halfway through the second round, and Hermansson picked him apart the rest of the way. The good news for Pyfer is that this is a three-round fight and not five like against Hermansson. Pyfer is 13-3 with noine TKO/KOs and three subs. He has some wrestling in his back pocket and averages a takedown and a half per fifteen minutes. He uses his aggressive stand-up to open level changes.   

Kelvin Gastelum is nearing his expiration date. Sean Brady recently Wayne Brady’d Gastelum during Gastelum’s brief return to the welterweight division. After a win against Daniel Rodriguez, Gastelum stopped taking his O-Lizzo and gained his middleweight figure back. Even though he was only five minutes away from winning the belt at middleweight, I never liked Gastelum at the weight class. He’s built like a welterweight with the discipline of a heavyweight. I always thought it was a lazy move for Gastelum. But Kelvin is still standing here screaming fook the Free World!  

The most noticeable difference between prime Gastelum and the current Gastelum is his hand speed. My man has lost a step like a leg amputee. He used to have hands of stone, but now they’re just stoned. Stoned like people in the Bible. I told his hands to stay away from that Indica. His hands used to have crotch-rocket hand speed, but now people honk, flip him the bird, and hurl abusive language at him when they’re in the fast lane. He has that school-zone-when-children-are-present hand speed. But the biggest knock against Gastelum has always been his lack of finishes. Gastelum hasn’t finished a fight since 2017 against Michael Bisping. The guy calling Gastelum’s fights now.   

Both fighters average just over three and a half SLpM, but Pyfer will have a massive power advantage. Gastelum has never been finished on the feet. He came close against Stylebender but made it to the final bell. Pyfer has a good shot at being the first to stop Gastelum on the feet. Pyfer is the massive (-550) favorite, and Gastelum is the (+410) mangy-ass dog. There is a path to victory. If he can get the fight to the halfway mark, Pyfer will slow down. Pyfer throws with too much power to keep a consistent pace for fifteen minutes. If Pyfer starts to gas, he will look to wrestle. That could stifle his output. And without a finish, he might not justify his high Fantasy price tag. But I think he’ll get out to a big lead and coast to the finish line. Joe Pyfer via decision. On wax.   

Props

Pyfer: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+350) Dec (+165) 

Gastelum: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+2500) Dec (+450)

Winner: Joe Pyfer | Method: Decision

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-150) vs. Kevin Borjas (+125)

R-Rod: DK: $8.5k | Borjas: DK: $7.7k

Ronaldo Rodriguez heard me talking about Manuel Torrez being a voyeur striker and said, “Hold my horchata.” Ronaldo is a fitting name because he gets his ass kicked like a Ronaldo hat trick before flipping the script. This kid gets his ass kicked so much it gets athlete's foot. He gets his ass kicked so much his opponents’ feet stink. Rodriguez lives by the saying, “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” He kicks ass hoping his opponent returns the favor. Ronaldo is a true sadomasochist. He’s Jim Carrey in Liar Liar, kicking his own ass in the bathroom. 

“What are you doing, Ronaldo!” 

“I’m kicking my ass!”  

If you don’t kick Ronaldo’s ass, he will. My man doesn’t feel alive until he is in the presence of death. You already know. Hit that Gary Jules “Mad World!” The dreams Ronaldo has had of dying are the best he’s ever had. Ronaldo’s special power is getting his ass kicked and surviving to tell his story. He plays chicken with punches and never loses. It’s like his chin is wearing God’s Mail armor. Homie’s chin got hit with up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, b, a, select, start Contra cheat code, and has unlimited lives. In his most recent bout against Ode Osbourne, Ronaldo was all but unconscious in the opening minutes and survived. He went on to slowly take over the fight and won by decision. My man was already starting to decay on his feet and still found a way to win.   

Ronaldo’s major malfunction is a lack of footwork. His footwork is stationary like a Hallmark store. R-Rod moves like he’s about to be tossed into a lake by a mafia enforcer. He rocks those cement shoes inside the Octagon. “Look at your boots! They’re starting to grow roots!” Homie moves like he’s growing out of the Octagon. Maybe that’s why his nickname is the worst nickname for a fighter, “Lazy Boy.” That’s like a pilot called “Crash and Burn.” But this kid doesn’t stop throwing and has some serious dog in him. He’s another MexiCAN. Rodriguez is 17-2 with seven TKO/KOs and five subs, including 2-0 in the UFC. Somehow Ronaldo only averages two SLpM. His fights are so chaotic you would never guess his output is so low. His career high in a three-round fight is thirty-five significant strikes.  

Kevin Borjas is your first fight when you turn Pro on UFC career mode. This kid is from Peru but fights like he’s from Mexico. Borjas is better than his 0-2 UFC record suggests. He got thrown to the wolves in his first two bouts against Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa. Borjas was at a power disadvantage in both fights but had good moments in each. Against Costa, Borjas got his ankles decapitated. Homie was cruising around with those ol’ Sleepy Hollow ankles. His shins are convertibles now. You already know. Call the fookin’ Orkin man and bust out the blue tents for those wooden legs. Borjas was looking good on the feet against Costa but couldn’t defend a leg kick to save their lives. But when it comes to this matchup, Borjas will be the far more technical striker. 

Borjas looks straight out of Apocalypto. Like he was catching heads at the bottom of the pyramid. This guy has a real primitive style on the feet. He looks like he’s hunting his food. Like he’s tracking a wild boar through the Amazon. Borjas’ jab is diabolical work, son. He has a Castor Troy jab and uses it a lot like Alex Pereira (except in the Ankalaev fight). Bojas had Joshua Van in trouble early in the fight. He sat down Van like Chris Hansen stepped into the Octagon. 

“Take a seat, Joshua.” 

Rob Font called, and he wants his jab back. Borjas throws his jab like he’s throwing a 300 spear. Borjas will have a big advantage on the feet. He averages nearly five SLpM and will run away with the striking stats if Ronaldo can’t take him down or land something wild on the feet. Borjas’ major malfunction is a sixty percent takedown defense. Ronaldo is far from a takedown specialist, but he could use them to supplement his inferior striking. Borjas is 9-3 with eight TKO/KOs.  

Ronaldo will be the (-160) favorite, and Borjas will be the slept-on (+135) live-ass dog. Borjas looks like the better fighter to me. Ronaldo relies on his heart and chin to win fights and lacks technical ability, especially on the feet. Borjas went the distance with Joshua Van - a lifetime achievement for me. I think this fight will go the distance. But there’s a ton of value in a Borjas TKO/KO. Ronaldo will get hit early and often. There’s also value in a Ronaldo submission. But without a finish, Ronaldo will be a Fantasy bust. He just doesn’t throw enough until he’s almost dead. Give me the dog. Kevin Borjas via decision. On wax.   

Props

Rodriguez: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+350) Dec (+200)  

Borjas: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+2500) Dec (+225)

Winner: Kevin Borjas | Method: Decision

Raul Rosas Jr. (-485) vs. Vince Morales (+370)

Rosas Jr: DK: $9.2k | Morales: DK: $7k

I once saw a documentary about the walking stone heads of Easter Island. Scientists believe the inhabitants used ropes to rock them back and forth. It looked as if the giant stone heads were walking along the shore. Then Raul Rosas Jr. made his UFC debut and debunked the theory, proving they just got up and walked on two legs. You’ll see this scientific discovery this Saturday night when Rosas fights a true veteran in Vince Morales. Morales is one of those guys you can’t judge by his record. This guy has faced stiff competition and is rarely not competitive. You can ring the upset alert alarm right meow. I think this fight will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers suggest.   

Rosas has 2-D Minecraft dome. He has a giant eight-bit head. Rosas looks like the Saw doll before he puts his face on in the morning before work. But his ground game is deadly, like a Jigsaw contraption. You have to gnaw off a limb to escape this kid’s top control. Rosas should ride from the tunnel into the Octagon on a little red tricycle. Homie looks like a walking friend zone, but what a friend to have on your side. Having Rosas as a homie is like walking around campus with Secret Service protection. Rosas’ style is like base jumping without a parachute or squirrel suit. The WKO mantra: Life’s a risk, carnal. But this kid puts that to shame. Rosas take perilous risks. He takes Life’s a risk, carnal to a different stratosphere. Risk? This guy risks getting tranq’d just going to the zoo. What’s a fight to him?   

Rosas will risk giving up any position at any time while looking for a submission. He had grown man strength before he lost his first tooth. And he uses that strength to power out of any bad position. It’s rare for a fighter to get back to their feet after Rosas gets them to the mat. Rosas has some major malfunctions, though. His cardio and his stand-up. After the first round, Rosas is half the fighter he was five minutes ago. And on the feet, he’s an ego fighter. The size of his head represents the size of his ego. Yo! Hit that Dr. Dre and Hittman “Big Egos!” Rosas dedicates his stand-up to those with big egos. Every exchange is like playing Russian Roulette with only one chamber empty. Rosas just wings it like pop quizzes. When Rosas starts throwing hands, it looks like he’s at an EDM festival. All he’s missing are the glow sticks and pacifier. Rosas can and will eventually get got on his feet.   

Vince Morales will have a good shot at doing just that. Speaking of Apocalypto earlier, Vince Morales is in his second stint serving as an Apocalypto sacrifice in the UFC. Morales has faced some serious killers inside the Octagon, including Song Yadong, Jonathan Martinez, and Taylor Lapilus. Morales isn’t great at anything but isn’t a scrub in anything, either. He’s a middle-of-the-road fighter and usually a tough out. It’s March Madness, and Morales needs to embrace the theme: Survive and advance. He has to get out of the first round. Surviving the first round against Rosas is like surviving the opening scene of a Final Destination movie. After that, the second round is a Lifetime original presentation, some Rom-Com or B-list celebrity biopic.   

Morales wins by out-dogging his opponents. This kid is walking DMX adlibs. He has more dog in him than the Grand Champ cover. He’s a punch-the-clock, bag lunch, blue-collar fighter, putting in ten-hour shifts at the Detroit Stamping ass-kicking factory. His Madden ratings are sixty-five across the board. But Morales has a specialty, D’arce/Anaconda and Peruvian necktie chokes. If Rosas gets lazy/tired and shoots an errant takedown, Morales will snatch that neck. You can already give Morales the third round and Rosas the first. This fight will come down to the second round.   

Rosas will be the (-370) favorite, and Morales will be the (+285) live-ass dog. Rosas fades. Morales doesn’t. And Morales is no chump on the mat. He has excellent defensive grappling. Rosas will be fighting against the clock. If the takedown well dries up on Rosas, Morales will win the stand-up. The play for Rosas is an early submission. I like playing Morales for a decision. Morales also averages just under four SLpM to Rosas one and a half. But Rosas averages four takedowns per fifteen minutes while Morales defends them at sixty percent. Man, I’m feeling froggy right meow. Don’t do it. I’m gonna do it. I think there’s a lot of value in a Morales upset. Fook it! Vince Morales via decision. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Rosas Jr.: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+225) Dec (+100)  

Morales: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+1400) Dec (+600)

Winner: Vince Morales | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Steve Erceg ($7.6k): The Value Menu looks less than appetizing this week. You will be hard-pressed to find a finish within this Motley Crue. In his only five-round scrap, Steve Erceg landed one hundred eleven significant strikes. This fight will likely spend its majority on the feet, and even in a losing effort, Erceg should be able to record a respectable stat line. Brandon Moreno is the better striker, but Erceg isn’t far behind. Moreno lacks one-punch KO power, and I like the chances of this one going the distance, giving you an extra ten minutes to rack up significant strikes. And don’t sleep Steve’s ground game. He uses his striking to set up sneaky level changes. He can supplement his striking stats with some takedowns and top control.   

Kevin Borjas ($7.7k): This is where shit gets ugly. Borjas rocks a 0-2 UFC record, but he has faced stiff competition. Ronaldo Rodriguez, although far from a scrub, will be a slight step down in competition for Borjas. Ronaldo is very hittable and often takes heavy damage before he slowly starts to change the tide. If Borjas can keep the fight standing, his output will dwarf Ronaldo’s. But that’s a big if because Borjas rocks a forty-noine percent takedown defense. Ronaldo relies too much on his chin and heart to win fights. Eventually, that will catch up to him. Borjas is the more technically sound striker and will find Ronaldo’s chin early and often. Against Joshua Van, Borjas landed seventy-five significant strikes in a loss and eighty-seven on the Contender Series. 

Gabriel Miranda ($7.1k): This is a longshot option, a classic all-or-nothing pick. Gabriel Miranda is a fly-by-the-seat-of-his-fight-shorts fighter, especially in the first round. He is a ground specialist with wild striking. Miranda is a heavy dog, but he provides one of the best chances at scoring an early finish. Jamall Emmers is a Payless King Green on the feet with far better striking than Miranda, who once fought Giga Chikadze to a split decision. But Emmers can get got on the mat. Miranda has a 17-7 career record with one TKO/KO and sixteen subs. For those counting on their fingers and toes, that’s a one hundred percent finishing rate. Gabe creates wild scrambles early and capitalizes by taking the back. If he can get Emmers’ back, it’s a wrap. But if he can’t... that’s that ass. 

$6k Clearance Rack

Kelvin Gastelum ($6.9k): Joe Pyfer is a Toyota Frontrunner. The only time he was truly tested against Jack Hermansson, he failed the exam. He got off to his typical fast start but faded like Great Clips when he couldn’t secure the early finish. Gastelum has never been finished on the feet. And he has faced every deadly striker in the division over the past decade. If anybody can survive Pyfer’s early assault, it’s Kelvin Gastelum. My biggest apprehension about Gastelum is his waning hand speed. He used to have the quickest hands in the division. But in recent fights, they have slowed down a bit. Barring an early finish, this one will be a stand-up banger from bell to bell. In his most recent win against Daniel Rodriguez, Gastelum landed one hundred twelve strikes. I expect this fight this fight to unfold similsimilarrly, and Kelvin will take his py, and Kelvin will take his pound of flesh even in a loss.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

C.J. Vergara (+220): This is a card full of rabid dogs. And C.J. Vergara is one of them. Nobody embraces March’s official theme, Survive & Advance, more than Vergara. I’ve seen this guy walking around the Octagon like a Walking Dead extra. I’ve seen him straight run away from ass-whoopin's, doing laps around the cage. But he survives. And then he takes over. I’m not sold on Vergara’s opponent, Edgar Chairez. And I think this fight is closer to a toss-up than the odds suggest. If you look at Vergara’s record, his losses have all come against elite wrestlers like Asu Almabaev and Ramazonbek Temirov. Chairez’s wrestling/grappling isn’t even close in comparison. If this fight stays standing, I like Vergara’s chances of out-dogging Chairez to a decision.  

Vince Morales (+325): After this pick, I will look like a genius or a Moe Ron. I’ve never been sold on Raul Rosas Jr. He’s the very definition of a one-trick pony. And he has a suspect gas tank. In many ways, Rosas is another Toyota Frontrunner. He overwhelms in the early minutes and rides the momentum to the finish line if he can’t secure a sub early. Rosas’ major malfunction is his striking. He’s a petulant, emotional striker who relies on unmitigated aggression to run cover for a lack of technical ability. Vince Morales is well-rounded, with no visible holes in his game, and he has been in the cage against some of the best in the division. This has the feel of Rosas’ lone loss to Christian Rodriguez. If Morales can survive the first five to seven minutes, we’re going to Sizzler. 

Steve Erceg (+195): Erceg proved he’s the real deal against Alexandre Pantoja. In many ways, he gave Toja Cat a tougher fight than Brandon Moreno did in their third matchup. Erceg is a wizard on the mat and has some sneaky, slick striking. Moreno’s jab will be the biggest obstacle that Erceg will have to overcome. Erceg is a solid counter-striker, using slip-and-rips to get the drop on opponents. He has to make Moreno miss and make him pay. Erceg also has to mix in takedown attempts consistently, even if they aren’t successful. I like the chances of this one going the distance, and a split verdict could be in the mix.  

Pick ‘Em

David Martinez (-390) vs. Saimon Oliveira (+295)  

Winner: David Martinez 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Edgar Chairez (-270) vs. C.J. Vergara (+220)  

Winner: C.J. Vergara 

Method: Decision 

Jose Medina (+310) vs. Ateba Gautier (-415)  

Winner: Ateba Gautier 

Method: Decision 

Christian Rodriguez (-145) vs. Mel Costa (+130) 

Winner: Mel Costa 

Method: Decision 

Lupita Godinez (-240) vs. Julia Polastri (+200) 

Winner: Lupita Godinez 

Method: Decision 

Rafa Garcia (-510) vs. Vinc Pichel (+370) 

Winner: Rafa Garcia 

Method: Decision 

Jamall Emmers (-320) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+260) 

Winner: Jamall Emmers 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

MarQuel Mederos (-190) vs. Austin Hubbard (+165) 

Winner: MarQuel Mederos 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.