Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Brandon Moreno (-300) vs. Brandon Royval (+240)

Moreno: DK: $8.8k | Royval: DK:$7.4k

Let’s go Brandon! Welcome to Brandon Bowl II. Two Brandons, one Octagon. The UFC is returning to Mexico, one of the wonders of the combat sports world. I see a Tekken level when I think about this fight. I see a cage in the middle of a lush rainforest, war drums booming in the distance, punctuating the thunderous strides of impending doom, a Mayan temple as the backdrop with a steady stream of heads rolling down its facade and gathering at the bottom like a bountiful harvest of ripe fruit. I see painted faces in the gathering crowd, the bones of animals piercing the flesh of man, ears, noses, chins, and cheeks dimpled with barbed studs. Only the gods can judge them. Their divine eyes looking down from the heavens on two modern-day savages engaged in a violent dance, a seduction of death should it be willed.   

Fight like a Mexican. Julio César Chavez, Manuel Marquez, Salvador Sanchez, Ricardo Lopez, Erik Morales... Brandon Moreno. March off to war with no intentions of coming back; that’s fighting like a Mexican. Bite down on the mouthpiece and let the bodies fall where they may. Fighting like a Mexican is being surrounded by a hoard of psycho vampires in an X-rated saloon with only one bullet left... 

“Seth, should I save the last bullets for us?” 

“No, use it on the next motherf**ker who tries to bite you.” 

Carried out is the only way to go out when you fight like a Mexican. Maybe it’s because of the altitude, but they just have bigger hearts. The two-time UFC Champion, Brandon Moreno, is the UFC’s version of the Mexican boxing legends. Heart: This guy has that Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom heart, still beating in a MF’s hand after it’s torn from his chest. You can stake it, fillet it; you can hit it with the five-point palm exploding heart technique, and it still goes right on beating. You can bury it beneath the floorboards... thump, thump. Thump, thump. Punch him, kick him, slam him, choke him; Moreno Badger don’t care! Moreno Badger don’t give a shit; he just takes what he wants. U can set this guy on fire, and he will carry on like a stuntman waiting in line at a coffee shop, keeping the other patrons warm.   

If you’re into blood, guts, and gore, a Brandon Moreno fight is right up your alley. He’s a low-down, dirty, ruthless vato. But I like that! Moreno is a true mixed martial artist with no glaring holes in his game. His striking won’t strike you (see what I did there?) as world-class, but it is. Brandon Moreno isn’t a range manager; he’s a range CEO. It begins with his jab; he has a Scorpion “Get over here!” jab. And he has a keen knack for landing it at its apex. He has an Ivy League-educated jab. Moreno could get a residency at Harvard teaching distance management. Anytime Moreno gets into trouble, gets hurt, or wobbled, he uses the jab to bail him out. Most fighters just start winging overhands and hooks, but Moreno gets behind the jab and fends off the opponent. Same-hand combos are a hallmark of elite boxers. Moreno often uses same-hand combos with his lead hand: Jab-liver shot-hook and liver shot-hook.   

In their first fight, Brandon Royval had a lot of success on the feet in the first round before dislocating his shoulder in the closing seconds. His overall chaotic cadence confused and caused Moreno problems early. But even though I think Moreno’s stand-up is better since that fight, and he is the overall better striker, his clearest path to victory is on the mat. Royval rocks a forty percent takedown defense and gave up eight in his title fight against Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja rode over fifteen minutes of control time to a title-defending victory. Moreno’s ground game is on par with Pantoja’s, and he’s good at letting his hands set up his takedowns. Where Pantoja relies on control time to control rounds, Moreno uses takedowns more as a psychological extension of his stand-up. He uses takedowns like play-action after establishing the run.   

Brandon “Crown” Royval is back like he never left. He’s coming in hot off a five-round war against Pantoja in December. Royval was in that fight until the final bell and had chances to win. But in the end, he just couldn’t stay on his feet enough. There was no shame in the loss; Royval did Royval shit. And Royval shit is chaos. Royval is entropy in human form. On the feet, he licks off stray shots like New Year’s Eve all over the arena. He’s Cheddar Bob with that bish. He’s Plaxico Burress in the club, careless with his hands and feets. His hands are like the Freak On a Leash bullet. When Royval throws, he starts with the kitchen sink and moves to small appliances. He’ll throw a fookin’ stroller at you... with a baby in it. When it comes to trading on the feet, Royval sits at the high-stakes tables behind the fancy glass in the VIP rooms, betting his life savings on every exchange. Overall, his style reminds me of Bruce Leeroy’s; they will throw any technique they have ever learned at any moment.   

Royval has Nate Diaz whipping arm punches and relies on his reach to stay on the outside. He doesn’t have much power, but he’s good at blitzing and overwhelming with quick three to four-punch flurries. And same-side kick/hand combinations are a staple of Royval’s arsenal. Royval’s special weapon is his creativity. He was a kid who colored outside the lines. During the school recital, he boogied to the shake of his own tambourine. He flies by the seat of his pants. Night at the Improv: Starring Brandon Royval. Off the top of the dome. Royval is a flow state fighter who feels what to throw and when. He calls his plays at the line of scrimmage, not in the huddle.   

The key for Royval against Moreno will be keeping the fight standing. When Royval loses, it's most often because he was taken down and spent too much time on his back. Royval has excellent grappling with noine career submissions to prove it, but it has a ceiling. He’s a notch below the elite grapplers like Moreno and Pantoja. Royval’s path to victory is fighting length with length and peppering Moreno from the outside while throwing some intermittent flying/spinning shit and trying to lure Moreno into some coin-flip exchanges.   

The numbers: Both fighters average 3.8 SLpM, and Moreno averages just under two takedowns per minute to Royval’s below one. Moreno is 21-7 with five TKO/KOs and eleven subs, and Royval is 15-7 with four TKO/KOs and noine subs. Royval finished his last two wins, and Moreno finished his last four. Barring an early finish, both fighters should put up NBA All-Star game striking stats. Moreno landed one hundred forty-seven in his last bout, and Royval landed one hundred eleven in his, both against Pantoja. Moreno should be able to land some takedowns here and there, but I think this will spend more time on the feet than Royval vs. Pantoja did. I would slightly favor Moreno as the bigger finishing threat because that jab has brought about the destruction of so many. Over five rounds, I think he can break down Royval. But a decision one way or the other has a ton of value, too. Moreno has NEVER been finished, and Royval was only finished twice.   

Moreno will be the (-250) favorite, and Royval will be the live (+200) dog. Not quite as live as Ilia Topuria was last week, though. In their first fight, Royval was landing some clean shots, and even though Moreno has never been stopped, he tends to get dropped in a lot of his fights. And Royval is a master at the the club-and-sub. We’re streaking, but not in a good way. The main event L streak now sits at two. Dogs have won two main events in a row and three of the last four. What Topuria did definitely wasn’t a surprise. He definitely knew something not many did. That mf has tranquilizers in his hands. This week, I have to roll with the man representing a country with a rich history of legendary fighters. Brandon Moreno via rear-naked choke, round four. On wax.  

Props 

Moreno: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+350) Dec (+140)  

Royval: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+700) Dec (+700) 

Winner: Brandon Moreno | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.4

Yair Rodriguez (-150) vs. Brian Ortega (+125)

Yair: DK: $8.5k | Ortega: DK: $7.7k

This is the conclusion of a 2022 episode that ended in a cliffhanger after Brian Ortega dislocated his shoulder attempting to escape a Yair Rodriguez “submission.” Ortega hasn’t fought since, and Yair went on to win the Interim featherweight belt. Both fighters lost title fights to the now-former King, Alexander Volkanovski, but it was Ortega who nearly ended Volk’s reign three years before Ilia Topuria did with a single right hand. But “nearly won” is something only 49ers fans celebrate. Ortega has only logged four minutes of Octagon time since the Volkanovski fight, but a win over the former interim champ will put him right back in the mix of title contention. And with Volk out of the way, Yair now has a clear path to another title shot. At the heart of this banger is a striker vs. grappler matchup, Yair being one of the most unique strikers in the game, and Ortega being one of the slickest submission Basquiat’s with nearly half of his fifteen career dubs coming via sub.   

The Alpha and Ortega. The beginning and the end. The first and the last. Cue that Roy Jones Jr. “Ya’ll must’ve forgot.” Brian Ortega will crack your ass, make you say “Maaaatte!” and then share an Applebee’s 2 for $20 with your Betty. Don’t forget, it was Brian Ortega who essentially ended the Korean Zombie’s career with a single spinning back elbow. The zombie was never the same after that elbow and five-round loss to Ortega. On the feet, Ortega has developed into a dangerous striker, willing to stand and bang with anybody. He has clean boxing and a knack for throwing standing elbows. He’s especially good at using elbows to counter aggressive forward pressure. But Ortega’s striking is more centered on heart and refusing to take a step backward than it is around technique. 

Ortega is all offense and zero defense. His defense is like your favorite NFL team taking the field with only seven defenders and no secondary. That’s why he starts every fight looking like a Gucci model and by the end, looks like Delante West on a bender. Ortega has that “Thank you, Sir, may I have another” defense. He turns the Octagon into the Headbanger’s Ball like he’s rocking out at a Metallica concert, the way his head snaps back the entire fight. In their first fight, Yair had Ortega nodding like a yes-man. Down the middle is where it’s at against Ortega; he can’t defend between his guard. Yair’s satellite-guided hands were picking Ortega apart from the opening bell. Ortega has no choice but to try dropping a fifty burger in every fight and still runs the risk of getting outscored. The Max fight, the Volk fight, and the Yair fight; Ortega took damage like a student driver's car. He goes from a prince to a frog real quick.    

Ortega’s path to victory will always be on the mat. He chokes more people than peanut and shellfish allergies combined. Ortega got his name “T-City” as an ode to his proficiency with triangle chokes, but his special weapon is the guillotine. Nobody uses it as a multi-faceted tool like Ortega. He uses it to defend takedowns, to create takedowns, reverse position, and to end the fight. Throw up the W. Protect Ya Neck! Ortega will latch onto a guillotine from any position, standing or on the mat. Although he lacks formidable traditional takedowns, he uses guillotines to force opponents to defend by going to their backs. Ortega can’t afford to stand with Yair. He has to tie up Yair against the cage and go neck hunting like he's doused in elk piss and glued little branches to his camo hat. 

House of 1000 Kicks. That’s where Yair lives. Can he kick it? Yes, he can. Yair has more kicks than the Rockettes. More kicks than Messi. Name a kick, any kick: The Van Damme final boss flying roundhouse, check. The Double Dragon helicopter kick, check. The Guile Flash Kick, check. The Johnny Cage Shadow Kick, check. The Liu Kang Bicycle Kick, check. They are all in Yair’s arsenal. If Yair don’t got it, you don’t want it! Yair is a green screen, Hollywood special effects, CGI striker who steps into the cage wearing a green leotard with little white balls like cat toys attached to it. Even though Roman Kopylov lost last weekend, you saw his incredible kick speed on display. Yair has that kind of kick speed. He also uses the same-side left round kick to left-hand combination in which he fires a left hand on the back swing of his kick. It looks like he’s throwing both strikes simultaneously. You’ll end up in Arkham Asylum trying to wrap your mind around what you’re seeing. 

But it was Yair’s hands that were stealing the show in their first matchup. His hands are so fast they glow red hot like they just re-orbited. Even though the fight only lasted four minutes, Yair was picking Ortega apart down the middle with crispy 1s and 1-2s. He hadn’t even unleashed his kicks yet before the fight ended. The key for Yair will be maintaining range and staying off the cage where Ortega can clinch and work trips. From his back, Yair has a prime Tony Ferguson guard. He uses the long guard to create distance, land elbows, and stand back up. Yair is one of the best guard strikers in the game, and he has to create damage and get back to his feet.  

Numbers: Ortega is 15-3 with three TKO/KOs and seven subs and averages just over four SLpM and just under one takedown per fifteen minutes. Yair is 19-4 with eight TKO/KOs and five subs and averages just over four and a half SLpM. This is a special five-round co-main event, so both fighters will be solid Fantasy options. Ortega may get pieced up, but he will continue coming forward and throwing hands until the very end. The only time he was ever really stopped in a fight was against Max after he absorbed nearly three hundred (two hundred noinety to be exact) significant strikes. Yair is the finishing threat on the feet, and although Yair has never been finished via submission, Ortega is the man to be the first to accomplish the feat. Yair is the (-175) favorite, and Ortega is the (+145) live dog. As we saw in the Volkanovski fight, Ortega can land a Hail Mary sub at any moment. But I’m riding with Yair. He was just too fast for Ortega on the feet the first time and is the active fighter. Yair Rodriguez via TKO, round four.

Props 

Yair: TKO/KO (+180) Sub (+1100) Dec (+250)  

Ortega: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+300) Dec (+650) 

Winner: Yair Rodriguez | Method: TKO Rd.4

Daniel Zellhuber (-275) vs. Francisco Prada (+220)

Zellhuber: DK: $8.9k | Prada: DK:$7.3k

Gucci, Fendi, Francisco Prada. The MTV Spring Break reigning, defending champ is back and is now old enough to walk through a Vegas casino without an adult chaperone. When he made his debut last year, he was only twenty years old and not legally allowed to purchase Robitussin 44D over the counter. Prada is a First Team All Cromartie finisher, rocking a one-hunnid percent finishing rate, and is coming off a first-round TKO finish of Ottman Azaitar. This time, he will be up against the Copycat Killer, Daniel Zellhuber. Zellhuber is entering off back-to-back impressive dubs over “Daddy’s” Lando Vannata and Cristos Giagos. This should be a crunchy little stand-up groove.   

Francisco Prada looks like he trains out of Globo Gym and does butt chugs at frat parties. But don’t let that fool you; this guy cracks like downtown Philly. Prada reminds me of a private school Paulo Costa, mixed with a seventy-five percent clearance Drew Dober. Prada throws nothing but short hooks and overhands and has Acme dynamite in his hands. But he lacks range. Prada still uses a highchair and gets free stickers from adults wherever he goes. Prada wasn’t blessed vertically and relies on covering the distance with power shots or countering. Sometimes, the best way to close the distance is to let the opponent do it for you. Prada’s special move is the same-time counter right hand over the top.   

Prada’s major malfunction is his ground game. He has that Valentine's Day guard. He has that “Love you long time” guard. Take Francisco Prada down? You can’t threaten him with a good time. In his debut, Jamie Mullarkey salted away rounds with top control, and from the bottom, Prada looked like he never wanted the fight to end. Prada showed no urgency to force scrambles and get back to his feet. But from the top position, he is damage over position. He’s a garbage disposal from the top. He’ll turn you into compost real quick with Donkey Kong hammerfists and elbows. The key for Prada will be keeping the fight standing and drawing Zellhuber into extended 50/50 exchanges in the pocket. Prada is 12-1 for his career with six TKO/KOs and six subs, aka club-and-subs.   

Daniel Zellhhuber is Fifty Shades of Brandon Moreno like he’s standing in Moreno’s shadow. Zellhuber has similar mannerisms to Moreno and also reminds me of the Night Stalker, Ignacio Bahamondes. Hence, Zellhuber is the Copycat Killer. Zellhuber is 14-1 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and three subs. You can’t argue with his stats. But he’s missing something. His style is like PE clothes, plain. His style is like dying in my sleep; I don’t feel it. Zellhuber doesn’t fight with a sense of urgency and often looks like he’s shadowboxing and losing a decision. He reminds me of the kid whose parents give him a bedtime at sleepovers and send him over with a change of draws “just in case.” Homie fights like he went to Catholic school. He needs a bad influence. He needs to watch some Ilia Topuria fights. But overall, his hands are tight light nuts and bolts. Tight like hallways and he has solid technical kickboxing. 

But a guy like Francisco Prada is Zellhuber’s kryptonite. Zellhuber lacks defensive instincts. He has passive-aggressive defense; he just ignores punches, pretends they aren’t in the room, and addresses them indirectly through a third party. Zellhuber often gets caught watching his work at the end of punches, which plays right into Prada’s counter right hand. Zellhuber will have to use lateral movement and his jab in multiples of two to keep Prada at the end of his punches and himself out of danger. Or just put his hand on Prada’s forehead and hold him at arm’s length while Three Stooges music plays and Prada swings at air. Zellhuber is the much higher output striker, averaging over five SLpM to Prada’s just under three and a half. He is coming in off a second-round submission dub, but his value will likely be in moderate to high significant strikes. He landed over one hundred significant strikes in his Contender Series fight and has a high of seventy-eight in three UFC bouts. 

Zellhuber will be the (-260) favorite, and Prada is the (+210) mangy dog. Prada could be a TLC flipper. If you’re trying to make money on this fight, the value is on the dog, Francisco Prada. People tend to pass out just walking by this guy. Zellhuber has a propensity for eating big shots, and he can’t afford to eat a Prada bomb. But I just don’t know how good Prada is or isn’t. He is a huge risk. But with huge risks come huge rewards. Zellhuber represents the more reliable technical pick and the potential for solid striking stats. I gotta ride with Daniel Zellhuber, but I might have a Hamilton with Prada’s name on it. Daniel Zellhuber via decision. Put it on wax.   

 Props 

Zellhuber: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+500) Dec (+175)  

Prada: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+1200) Dec (+600) 

Winner: Daniel Zellhuber | Method: Decision

Raul Rosas Jr. (-230) vs. Ricky Turcios (+190)

Rosas: DK: $9k | Turcios: DK: $7.2k

What the hell are we doing here? Ya’ll want me to make a five-star Michelin meal with Dollar General ingredients. Ya’ll want a Picasso and hand me a stick and point me to a patch of dirt. This one will go down in the anals of UFC history as one of the ugliest matchups of all time. And, no, I didn’t spell that wrong. This is a matchup of a boy with man’s strength and a man with boy’s strength. Boyz II Men vs. Men II Boyz. It was just one fight ago that Raul Rosas Jr. got exposed like Black’s Beach. Indecent exposure. It turned out that the eighteen-year-old had an eighteen-year-old's stamina when he fought Christian Rodriguez. After fighting an Ice Road Trucker from Alaska in his last bout, the UFC continues riding the brakes on Rosas Jr., handing him “Ain’t Nuthin’ Pretty” Ricky Turcios. This will be a disjointed, confusing affair that will have you wondering if that Bammer you’re smoking turned into some top shelf.   

Raul Rosas Jr. is a Cinderella man. Once the clock strikes five minutes, his fight shorts turn into Daisy Dukes. My man’s ass-out. Up Shit’s Creek with no floaties. He looks like the Saw doll backstage without makeup. He’s a walking friend zone. He looks like Li Jinliang’s wingman. His head is the physical representation of his ego. He has an Easter Island head, and it takes a whole village to roll him over logs to get him into the Octagon. But don’t let any of that fool you. In the first round, Rosas Jr. Is a grappling savage. He rag dolls grown men and is freakishly strong for his age. But his strength is a gift and a curse. He relies on power to muscle opponents to the mat instead of relying on technique. Rosas Jr. often takes perilous grappling risks, giving up position because he knows he can power his way out of trouble. But that’s also why he gasses so quickly.   

On the feet, Rosas is a dubstep striker; he just spins around and flails his arms and legs. He fights with his ego and just engages in reckless firefights and nothing but uncalculated 50/50 exchanges. Ricky Turcios is a Buzz Lightyear away from being a dangerous striker, so this will be a good fight for Rosas to work on his stand-up. He can survive on the feet with a guy like Turcios but not with many others. The key for Rosas will be rag-dolling Turcios to the mat, taking his back in a scramble, and locking in a sub. Rosas is 8-1 for his career with two TKO/KOs and five subs. Six of his eight dubs came in the first round. Rosas’ Fantasy value will be strictly in an early finish, most likely a submission. If he can’t score a first-round finish, you’ll be working with under one and a half SLpM.    

Ricky Turcios looks like the homie with the disco hair in No Country for Old Men. He reminds me of the male version of Juliana Miller. Or maybe Juliana Miller is the female version of Ricky Turcios? Diary of a Wimpy Kid is a Ricky Turcios autobiography. He fights like the coach’s son on the team; he only plays because his dad is the coach. If I had to pick any fighter in the UFC to fight, I would pick Ricky Turcios. They call him Mattress Ricky. He has those Tempur-Pedic memory foam hands. They just contour to your face. It feels like you’re getting a facial at a day spa when Ricky starts putting hands on you. He’s a prototypical Tre Styles striker, “I’m sick of this shit!” He gyrates like a washer machine and whips his arms back and forth. I don’t know what it is; I can’t make sense of Ricky Turcios. His style is like reading William Faulkner, confusing. It’s almost like he’s playing a different sport than his opponent.  

I can’t think of anything that Ricky Turcios does particularly well. His technique in all areas is a Madden twenty, except for cardio. This guy has some Merab cardio. He can keep moving and gesticulating for an entire fifteen minutes while holding his breath. Turcios is also good at scrambling on the mat and outhustling opponents throughout the fight. Turcios is 12-3 with three TKO/KOs and one sub and averages over five SLpM. I’m not sure any Turcios strikes can be considered significant, so they just call them all significant, or he’d get shut out in every fight. But if he can get out of the first round, those insignificant strikes landed will add up. Turcios has landed over one hundred insignificant strikes twice in four measurable fights, and he could prove to be a valuable Fantasy option. 

Rosas Jr. will be the (-275) favorite, and Turcios will be the (+215) neglected dog. Turcios is no chump on the mat; he can survive and advance and take control of the latter half of the fight. The play for Rosas is an early submission, and the play for Turcios is a win by decision. He’s got the finishing rate of whiskey shots and stag dates. This one is a little trickier than it appears, but I have to roll with the man-child, Raul Rosas Jr. via rear-naked choke, round one. On wax.  

Props 

Rosas: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+200) Dec (+200)   

Turcios: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+1400) Dec (+400) 

Winner: Raul Rosas Jr. | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.1

Manuel Torres (-185) vs. Chris Duncan (+155)

Torres: DK: $8.3k | Duncan: DK:$7.9k

This should be a short, violent affair. Manuel Torres is an Outkast B.O.B. striker, a riverboat gambler who pushes all the chips into the center of the table with every exchange. And Chris Duncan made a name for himself on the Contender Series when he made a miraculous Easter-like comeback against Charlie Campbell. 28-3 at halftime doesn’t have shit on Chris Duncan. My man came back like that shit on your lip.   

“That shit on your lip, got some shit on its lip, dawg.” 

“Is that why no puff puff. Pass the dutchie, my friends!” 

This will be a classic Tortoise vs. The hare matchup. Manuel Torres will come out at a dead sprint throwing Hobgoblin bombs, and Chris Duncan will try to survive and take over late with timely wrestling and overhand rights on the feet.

Manuel Torres is another Russian Roulette striker. Except he only leaves one chamber empty. This guy has more lives than Kenny. Torres elicits firefights from the moment the bell rings. He throws nothing but fastballs and has a power jab that sets everything off. A power jab isn’t meant to establish range; it's meant to drop you. Manuel can drop you with any punch he throws. His signature move is guard manipulation. He likes to reach out and grab the opponent’s hands and pull them down so he can land punches and elbows. You can’t play Patty Cake with this guy.   

But Torres’ major malfunction is his defense. He’s a defensive atheist. When he engages, Torres sticks his chin in the air like he’s popping a zit. Like he’s trying to keep his head above water. He’s most vulnerable when he leads with his hook instead of his jab. Duncan’s right hand over the top will be open all night. Torres is 14-2 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and six subs, and thirteen of his fourteen career dubs came in the first round. He ain’t here for a long time; he’s here for a good time. Torres also averages nearly ten SLpM, but that comes with minimal Octagon time. Regardless, Torres’ value will be in a first-round finish. Anything after that is uncharted territory, like the shaded areas on a level map.   

Chris Duncan is a classic overachiever, asking for homework on the weekends and shit like that. He fought twice on the Contender Series, losing by second-round TKO to Viacheslav Borschev and pulling out a miracle in his second appearance. But Duncan now has two big promotional wins against Omar Morales and Yanal Ashmoz. It’s never pretty, but this guy just finds a way to win. Against Manuel Torres, Duncan will have to take the Donner Party path to victory in the middle of the winter. He has to use his wrestling to limit the number of exchanges on the feet. He has a nifty right hand with sneaky power, but he can’t go toe-to-toe with Torres for extended stretches. Duncan has to make this an MMA fight and try to win in all the gray areas, in the clinch, against the cage, in transition, and from the top position. He will be at a massive speed and power disadvantage on the feet, but he can use Torres’s aggression against him and level change under Torres’s strikes.   

Duncan is 11-1 with seven TKO/KOs and one sub and averages five SLpM and over three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Duncan is a grinder. He’s that doodie you have to go full Ice Spice to shake off. This has the feel of Pyfer vs. Hermansson. Pyfer was a world-beater for about seven minutes, and then Hermansson took over the rest of the way. Duncan will have to take a similar path to victory. Torres is the (-140) favorite, and Duncan is the (+115) dog. I thought the oddsmakers might sleep on Duncan a little and expected him to be a bigger dog. The play for Torres is a TKO finish, and although Duncan can finish late, I think a decision is a better play. But I have to roll with speed and power. Manuel Torres via TKO, round two. You know what to do with it.  

Props 

Torrres: TKO/KO (-110) Sub (+500) Dec (+900)  

Duncan: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+900) Dec (+1000) 

Winner: Manuel Torres | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Claudio Puelles ($7.5k): Break a leg. That’s not just an idiom for Claudio Puelles. This guy is a specialist, and specialists are the ultimate gamble. Puelles is 12-3 with two TKO/KOs and seven subs. Four of those subs came via kneebar. He can snatch your leg from any position, even while you’re standing. If you go to the ground with Puelles, it’s almost guaranteed that he will roll into a kneebar attempt. Puelles is coming off a TKO loss to Dan Hooker, but even in that fight, he had a locked-in kneebar that Hooker was able to fight out of. Before that, Puelles submitted the missing link, Clay Guida, with a kneebar. The red flag for Puelles: His stand-up ain’t it, boss. I ain’t your boss, guy. Puelles’ opponent, Fares Ziam, is far from a killer on the feet, but he’s long and is a far more technical striker than Puelles. If Puelles can’t pull guard or find a way to get it to the mat, he’ll be up Shit’s Creek with paddles this deep. He’s still gonna sink. But his upside is an early submission, which is all but certain if he can get Ziam to the mat early.   

Brandon Royval ($7.4k): Royval has five rounds to work with and is coming off a five-round title fight performance in which he landed one hundred eleven significant strikes in a losing effort. He was able to land over one hundred strikes even after being taken down eight times and controlled for over fifteen minutes. Moreno will definitely get this fight to the mat at some point, but Moreno doesn’t try to control the top position as much as Alexandre Pantoja does. This fight will be spent mostly on the feet, and even if he doesn’t get his hand raised, Royval will put up some solid punching stats. He also has an x-factor: He’s wild; he howls at the moon. “Crown” Royval is unpredictable and hits you with shit you didn’t see coming. "Which one of ya'll hit me?" A club and sub is definitely in the cards for Royval. But his base value will be in high significant strikes landed over twenty-five minutes.   

Francisco Prada ($7.3k): Prada’s opponent, Daniel Zellhuber, has a knack for getting clipped and breaking into an impromptu chicken dance early in fights. If Francisco Prada lands a bomb early, there won’t be any stomping the yard for Zellhuber; he will be taking a canvas nap. Prada is a one hunnid percent finisher with a symmetrical six TKO/KOs and six subs. He drops you and then strangles you. The key for Prada will be getting inside on the long Zellhuber, where he can force 50/50 exchanges in the pocket. Zellhuber doesn’t want that pocket smoke. He wants to stay on the outside and keep shit looking cute and pretty. If Prada can get inside, he’ll make this ugly quickly and have an excellent shot at finishing the fight, especially early. Noine of his twelve career dubs came in the first round.  

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Daniel da Silva ($6.9): Sam Hughes isn't a bad look on the clearance rack this week. That young lady is a serious dawg and has a way of hanging around and stealing fights she had no business winning. But “Damn!” Daniel da Silva is the very definition of a wild mother-shut-your-mouf. This guy is 0-4-1 in the UFC, but there’s a reason why he’s still on the roster. Da Silva could easily be 4-0-1; he nearly wins every fight he loses. The first round against this guy is like the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan. Spinning shit, flying shit, spinning-flying shit; da Silva loses his mind as soon as the bell rings and starts throwing anything that comes to mind. He overwhelms in the opening minutes and is on the brink of victory in every fight. It just seems like he can’t land the final blow to seal the deal and then gasses heavily from trying to finish the fight. But da Silva is a huge finishing threat for this price range and will turn the whole board upside down if he can finally close the deal.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Claudio Puelles (+170): This one is based more on Puelles’ opponent, Fares Ziam than it is based on confidence in Puelles. Ziam is mid-AF. Nothing Ziam does is extraordinary. His style is the West Coast offense, slowly matriculating the ball up the field. But don’t expect any big plays or finishes. Ziam is 4-2 in the UFC, with all dubs coming via decision. Puelles is the finisher in this matchup, and he has a special move, the kneebar. And overall, Puelles is a far more dangerous grappler than Ziam. This fight is a toss-up, and (+170) is solid odds for a toss-up.   

Brandon Royval (+230): The main event will be a wild affair. Both fighters will put themselves in danger throughout the fight. In many ways, these guys have similar skill sets, and I expect this one to be a photo finish. Royval now has championship fight experience and was highly competitive his last time out against the champ Alexandre Pantoja. Royval can win this fight by being wild and unpredictable and forcing wild exchanges on the mat and feet.  

Cristian Quinonez (+160): I love kill-or-be-killed fighters, and Cristian Quinonez is definitely that. At one time, I thought Quinonez’s opponent, Raoni Barcelos, would be a title challenger, but he has fallen on harsh times. I’m talking Grapes of Wrath hard times. Barcelos is 1-4 in his last five bouts, and his chin has become suspect like the last person to see the victim alive. I think Barcelos will try to control this fight on the mat with the top position because Quinonez cracks like the Liberty Bell. Young, dumb, and full of you know what, that’s Cristian Quinonez. He’s too young to know what he doesn’t know, which is that he isn’t supposed to win this fight. But if he can keep the fight standing, I trust his power more than I trust Barcelos’s chin. Quinonez will throw bombs and forget to ask questions later, which could spoil a fight that, on paper, looks like it's meant to get Barcelos on base.  

Pick ‘Em 

Yazmin Juaregui (-550) vs. Sam Hughes (+400) 

Winner: Yazmin Juaregui 

Method: Decision 

Cristian Quinonez (+160) vs. Raoni Barcelos (-200) 

Winner: Raoni Barcelos 

Method: Decision 

Jesus Aguilar (+125) vs. Mateus Mendonca (-150) 

Winner: Jesus Aguilar 

Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.2 

Edgar Chairez (-350) vs. Daniel da Silva (+275) 

Winner: Edgar Chairez 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Claudio Puelles (+170) vs. Fares Ziam (-210) 

Winner: Claudio Puelles 

Method: Kneebar Rd.2 

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-120) vs. Denys Bondar (+100) 

Winner: Denys Bondar 

Method: Decision 

Victor Altamirano (+240) vs. Felipe dos Santos (-300) 

Winner: Felipe dos Santos 

Method: Decision 

Erik Silva (+315) vs. Muhammad Naimov (-450) 

Winner: Muhammad Naimov 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy