Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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When I grow up, I want to be Max Holloway. I spent the last week pointing to the ground anywhere I came face-to-face with someone. At the Sprouts olive bar: One index finger down and three shakes of the wrist to the muhf**ker taking the last pimiento-stuffed green olive. Index finger down to the parishioner who cut me off in the communion line.   

The Amazon guy, “I got a package here for a, uh... Chris?” Index finger down. 

 Anybody can get.  

“Hey! You left your lights on!” Index finger down.  

The boss man, “You’re late again...” Index finger down. 

So far, nobody wants that BMF smoke. It just hits different. They all turn into Bill – all puff and no inhalation. Try it the next time someone looks you in the eyes. See if your stones don’t swell to fifty pounds each. You’ll have to dribble them shits like Ronaldo. You’ll have to buy a whole row on a Boeing Max for your nose-first trip into the ocean. One index finger down will soon replace the thumbs up as the most universally recognized gesture in the world. Pointing one index finger to the ground will replace all the pills displayed next to the cash register at 7-Eleven. One index finger down should be an Apple emoji, and the name Max should be retired. Nobody should be permitted to name their son, daughter, dog, cat, or other Max ever again.   

The next time you’re in a difficult situation, ask yourself, “What would Max do?” and act accordingly. And if you ever run into Max at the mall and he points to the ground, dip.  

Main Card 

Matheus Nicolau (-180) vs. Alex Perez (+150)

Nicolau: DK: $8.7k | Perez: DK:$7.5k

How do you follow the most iconic KO in UFC history? Wrong answers only. 

Answer: With a Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez main event.

Manel Kape was supposed to be Matheus Nicolau’s original opponent – a retrial of a Valero robbery a couple of years ago. Nicolau is still serving probation for winning that fight. It’s an improbable turn of events. The Pull-Out BMF, Alex Perez, is stepping in on short notice to save a main event. And Manel Kape now wears the interim pewter Pull-Out belt, ironically with Antonio Cromartie's face commemorated on its facade. Although the name recognition of this matchup rates a Madden twenty, it should be a crunchy little banger. Alex Perez is coming off a surprisingly competitive performance against Muhammad Mokaev, a fight in which Perez came up short of scoring the upset by one takedown that he couldn’t defend in the third round. And Matheus Nicolau is a man of few punches with sneaky power like “Boom! Paow! Surprise!” 

Speaking of sneaky; this guy’s power will sneak up on ya like the Son of Sam. I’m talking Tanya Harding’s goons lying in wait for Nancy type of sneak up on ya. Max Crosby calls Matheus Nicolau “Little-ass Boy,” but don’t let that fool you. Nicolau is a little-ass sleeper with little-ass hooks and overhands. He carries little-ass Manhattan Project atomic bombs in his right hand and utilizes little-ass slips and rips in the pocket. Nicolau is the overachieving Garner Minshew of the UFC. He’s able to consistently take opponents by surprise because he steps into the Octagon draped in ordinary camouflage, and you can’t see him like John Cena. Where’s Nicolau? He’s just a face in the crowd like Waldo. Fighters often overlook Nicolau like little people standing in the front row. “Down in front!”   

Nicolau has two special moves: Lateral movement and playing possum. This guy takes laps around the Octagon like it’s NASCAR. The Nicolau 500. He’s like Lightning McQueen, never heeds his pit crew’s advice to make a pit stop for fresh tires and keeps circling until the wheels fall off. By the end of the fight, he’s run the Boston Marathon with all the miles he’s logged from circling the cage. You have to overplay Nicolau’s left hand, cut him off, and force him to move to his right, his power side. It sounds counterintuitive to force him to his power side, but he’s far less comfortable moving that way. Nicolau plays possum by lulling you to sleep with movement and little offensive output.   

“Everybody from the 3-1-3, put your hands up and follow me!” Nicolau is a B. Rabbit striker – lets you throw first, so he can flip the script and use your offense against you, using same-time counters. Nicolau is judicious with his output. He chooses his shots like he’s lining up a sixty-foot putt to win the Masters, reading the green and licking his finger to check the direction of the wind before he throws. He deliberates over his strikes like he’s wine-tasting. My man needs ten personal references and a ten-year work history before letting his hands go. But it’s all by design. His lateral movement and low output make you drowsy - a hypnotist dangling a swaying pendulum in front of your eyes, “When you wake up, you will eat a left hook. 1... 2... 3...” BLAP! 

Overall, Nicolau is a crafty little-ass striker with a nointey-three percent takedown defense. That will be the key stat when facing a primary wrestler like Alex Perez. No one has seen Nicolau’s ground game because his fights rarely go there. Nicolau is 19-3 with five TKO/KOs and five subs. Although he has fight-ending power, Nicolau only has one finish in five UFC starts. But he creates fight-ending moments and will have the one-punch power advantage over Perez if he can keep it standing. The higher output striker will be Perez, who averages just over four SLpM to Nicolau’s just over three and a half. On the feet, Nicolau has to avoid exchanging in the pocket and attempt to dominate the long-range.   

Alex Perez is a former deadbeat fighter trying to make amends. He’s still paying Fighter’s Support for dropping the Manel Kape fight. His career is a Lifetime original story. It’s like a trailer for a movie that never comes out – straight to DVD. But what does all that old shit have to do with this here new shit? The tables have turned like interior decorators. Alex Perez is saving main events like his name is Sean Strickland. Captain Save a Main Event. Less than two months ago, Perez fought Mokaev after nearly a one-and-a-half-year layoff. The wrestler had to rely on his striking and damn near fooked around and got a triple-double. On the feet, Perez is all calf kicks and hooks in the pocket. Firefight – this guy is a human wick. My man turns into a Unabomber hermit in the pocket. He can cause Nicolau some problems if he can use level change feints to get the drop, close the distance, and unload two to three-punch combos. But most importantly, Perez needs to cut the Octagon and trap Nicolau against the cage where he can create level change opportunities. 

Perez is a solid wrestler but a mediocre grappler. He can get the fight to the mat and maintain the top position but doesn’t have slick transitions, submissions, or dominant positions. He’ll hunt chokes like Mossy Oak and Bloodhounds and has seven career subs, but only one came in one of his ten UFC bouts. Homie has been choked out more than he has choked out. Wrestlers, and not grapplers, leave their necks exposed like Alex Perez. He’s been choked out in under two minutes in two of his last three bouts. The CIA can’t threaten Alex Perez with a good time. Perez chokes like—you already know—weenies and windpipes. I say all that to say this: Perez’s path to victory is getting the fight to the mat, salting away the clock, and using ground and pound to create submission opportunities. Perez is 24-8 with five TKO/KOs and seven subs, averages just under two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, and once fought Deiveson Figueiredo for the flyweight title.   

Nicolau will be the (-185) favorite, and Perez will be the (+155) live dog. I was impressed by Perez against Mokaev. He showed me something after a series of terrible performances. He’ll have to take risks on the feet to get the fight to the mat. And even if the takedown well dries up, he can put together some crispy combinations and has sneaky hand speed. But he'll be the most vulnerable trying to close the distance, and I don’t know if he can do it consistently for twenty-five minutes. I like the chances of this one going the distance, but a Nicolau TKO is the play for him. I think Perez could grow impatient with Nicolau’s movement and rush into something big. All three of Nicolau’s career Ls came via TKO/KO, but Perez will be a submission threat throughout. And he can be a valuable Fantasy option by racking up a combination of significant strikes, takedowns, and top control time.   

The main events have alternated dubs and Ls for the last several cards. I’m just glad UFC 300 is over. That card left me face down on my area rug like Justin Gaethje. This one has me second-guessing. Nicolau is coming off a two-minute TKO loss to Brandon Royval, and you never know how someone will look after a TKO/KO. I originally picked Nicolau, but I talked myself into Perez. I don’t know what it is, but he showed something in his last bout. Before the Figueiredo fight, Perez was a wrecking ball, and I think think there might be a little left in him. Plus, dogs have dominated main events this year. Alex Perez via decision. Put that ish on wax. 

Props 

Nicolau: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+275) Dec (+215)  

Perez: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+800) Dec (+500) 

Winner: Alex Perez | Method: Decision

Ryan Spann (-200) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+165)

Spann: DK: $8.9k | Guskov: DK: $7.3k

Nobody plays hard to get with the dub quite like Ryan Spann- not even his mortal enemy Anthony Smith, a man Spann has pried two Ls from the jaws of victory against. The good news for Spann is that he’s not fighting Anthony Smith again. Or is he? In steps Bogdan Guskov, aka composite sketch Anthony Smith. Guskov shows up at kids’ birthday parties dressed as Anthony Smith, makes balloon animals, and accuses the kids of trying to kidnap his wife and kids. It’s quite the scene. This matchup is the UFC’s way of trolling Ryan Spann, a sneaky way of booking an unnecessary rubber match against Anthony Smith. This will be the UFC’s version of Gone in 60 Seconds. “Alexa. Set a timer for one minute.” This one shouldn’t last much longer than that and certainly won’t see a second round.   

Get on the bus, Gus. You don’t gotta discuss much. There isn’t much time for gum bumping or much else during a Bogdan Guskov fight. This guy looks like Eddy from Ed, Ed, and Eddy. He looks like Sloth from Goonies if Sloth’s mammy didn’t drop-kick him like Doug Flutie extra points when he was born. This guy looks like a cohort, a classic 90s movie henchman. He looks like he committed every cold case in existence – like the most suspect suspect ever suspected. But please don’t let any of that fool you. Guskov cracks like plumber’s ass. Guskov has more finishes than Antonio Cromartie. He’s 15 For 15, a new primetime ESPN show. Bogdan is 15-3 for his career with thirteen TKO/KOs and two subs, a one-hunnid-percent finishing rate.   

Guskov throws bombs and yells, “Fire in the hole!” after detonation, and everything in the vicinity is a smoldering heap, like taking a dump in the woods in the middle of winter. Bogdan is all offense and no defense, throwing nothing but homerun combinations from his chest with his chin standing defiantly high in the air. He leaves himself fully exposed during every exchange – indecent exposure. He dares you, no, he double-dog dares you to KO him. “We don’t believe you; you need more people!” Every Guskov exchange is the last ten seconds of Gaethje vs. Max; he could hit a walk-off or get walked off at any moment. And he’s okay with that. Because he has stupid power and is willing to flip a coin like Two-Face. Gus will turn you into a poltergeist real quick - leave you making pottery with Patrick Swayze looking lovingly over your shoulder real fookin’ quick.   

The key for Guskov will be keeping the fight standing and avoiding Spann’s underrated submission game on the mat. If he can shake off a takedown or two, Spann will abandon his grappling altogether and play right into Guskov’s wheelhouse, standing and banging. Gus made his debut against Volkan Oezdemir and lost via rear-naked choke in the first round. That’s not a good look going into a fight with a much better grappler than Volkan Oezdemir. But Guskov returned with a first-round TKO dub over Zac Pauga and kept his one-round fight streak alive. Win or lose, Bogdan’s last seven fights ended in the first round, and he has never been to a decision.   

In the span of fifteen minutes, Ryan Spann almost wins every fight he’s been in a dozen times. Once he starts kicking ass, he starts questioning himself, like when you look down at your Scantron and see five C’s bubbled in a row. Spann is the Lara Croft Tomb Raider of finding L’s. He wears a little monocle, wields a little mustache brush, and excavates L’s like an archeologist. Spann has lost two fights in a row, and losing to Bogdan Guskov is the holy grail L he’s been spending his entire career searching for. Spann’s major malfunction is that he listens to those George Michael’s Careless Whispers. Spann fights recklessly like blow-drying your hair in the shower. On the mat, he’s f**k-you-up-over-position and will instigate wild scrambles where he uses transitions to snatch necks. Choker is a double entendre for Ryan Spann. He has slick head and arm chokes (D’arce/Anaconda/Guillotines) and loves to snatch them (or get snatched in them) amid the chaos of wild scrambles. Spann is 21-9 for his career, and twelve of those dubs came via submission to six TKO/KOs.  

Spann can finish you on the feet too. His jab is probably the best in the division. He could jab his way to victory in every fight like GSP if he wanted to. But he doesn’t. He sent Dominick Reyes free-falling into his own footprint with a jab-counter. The double/triple jab is Spann’s best weapon on the feet, and it will be the key to beating Guskov. Gus throws nothing but wide punches, and Spann’s jab and straight punches will beat Gus to the preverbal punch every time. But Spann’s clearest path to victory will undoubtedly be on the mat. Which is why Spann will probably choose to stand and trade.   

Throw the stats out the window for this one. One of these guys is getting finished with the quickness. Spann is the (-200) favorite, and Guskov is the live (+165) dog. Gus isn’t quite a live-ass dog because his ground game is highly suspect, and Fantasy-wise, he will be an all-or-nothing option. He will either KO Ryan Spann within the first five to seven minutes, or he will likely get choked out/KO’d himself. But you must be on that Shohei Ohtani shit if you’re still putting up duckets on Ryan Spann. That’s like base jumping without a parachute and hoping to land in some fluffy bushes. I say all that to say this: This fight is tailor-made for a Ryan Spann dub. He’s the more technical striker and far superior on the mat. Ryan Spann via rear-naked choke, round one. Put it on wax.

Props 

Spann: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+200) Dec (+1000)  

Guskov: TKO/KO (+225) Sub (+1600) Dec (+1400) 

Winner: Ryan Spann | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.1

Ariane Lipski (+125) vs. Karine Silva (-150)

Lipski: DK: $7.7k | Silva: DK:$8.5k

This one is nasty work. Don’t sleep on this little banger. Karine Silva looks like the second coming of Amanda Nunes.  And Ariane Lipski looks like she belongs in the ‘98 Home Run Derby and ironically trains with the real Amanda Nunes. If Karine Silva plays this correctly, this should turn into a classic grappler vs. striker matchup. I know that doobie is burning a hole in your pocket, but this fight isn’t the time for a Mary Jay break. This is an undercover banger and features Karine Silva, who has all the skills to be a future champion. I get Manon Fiorot feels when I see Silva. The first time I saw Fiorot, I knew she would be a Champ, and I have the same feeling with Karine.  

Cue that Roots “Break You Off.” Karine Silva is coming to break you off. Real nice. Real proper. They dim the arena lights and litter the Octagon with rose petals because Silva hands out sensual ass whoopin’s. Meet the new Amanda- same as the old Amanda. On the feet, Silva’s stature is Amanda Nunes to a T. We’re talking straight plagiarism. Copyright infringement. No bibliography, no sources cited. Automatic fail. She’s got the check-left hooks set on automatic and her right hand is a Mossberg cocked. Her lead hand handles petty squabbles, and her right hand executes wills. She can stand and bang with Ariane Lipski, but her path to victory will be using her slick grappling.   

Break the knee and walk away. Silva won her most recent bout via kneebar, and her Sherdog record is a smorgasbord of submissions. She can sub you from any position. She’ll even hit a Go-Go on you like Hollywood Blvd. and Jim Morrison. Karine will go straight Nick Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi on your ass. Silva uses the rubber guard from her back to tie you up like a double Windsor and carve you up with elbows or submit you. She also has Brandon—I mean, Brendan Allen level changes off her striking, and she can dominate from the top position. Silva is 17-4 for her career with noine TKO/KOs and eight subs. If she goes full Afro Samurai and comes out rocking the luscious afro, it’s a wrap. Wrap it up, B. Bet the house on her.   

Ariane Lipski is a demolition derby striker. A Sylvester Stallone Demolition Woman. Every exchange is like a multi-car pileup. She isn’t the most intricate striker, but Lipski is aggressive and has some of the best one-punch power in the division. In her last bout, she had Casey O’Neill looking like the little girl that was in all the Missy Elliott music videos. Sixty percent of the time, her power works every time. There isn’t a hole deep enough that her power can dig her out of. She tends to shoeshine lefts/rights in the pocket, but she can get away with it because she usually has superior hand speed. You have to feint and double-jab Lipski and try to draw out her power shots so you can counter. If Silva tries to trade in the pocket with Lipski, Lipski’s power will prevail. But she has head movement like she’s wearing a dog cone and public defender defense – the ones that just tell you to plead guilty and serve your time.   

Lipski’s major malfunction is her ground game. You can put her ground game out on the curb on Tuesday mornings, and a big green truck will come and pick it up. She’s got that R. Kelly Doo Doo Butter ground game. Drip, drip, drip. She rocks a near eighty percent takedown defense and is generally tough to get to the mat, but once her ass hits the mat, there isn’t much hope of her getting back to her feet. Lipski is the higher output striker, averaging just under four and a half SLpM to Silva’s just under three and a half. But Silva averages two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Lipski is 17-8 for her career with six TKO/KOs and four subs and is currently riding a three-fight dub streak.   

Silva will be the (-155) favorite, and Lipski will be the (+130) live-ass dog. You can flip those odds if Lipski can keep the fight standing. Silva is the favorite because of her superior ground game. But if she struggles to relocate the fight, this will be closer to a toss-up on the feet. To all my Girl Dads out there, we want our daughters to be able to defend themselves like these ladies. You can retire from tossing dudes out the front door like Jazzy Jeff if your daughter can get down like these two. The play for Silva is a submission finish, and the play for Lipski is a decision. Lipski can finish any fight on the feet, but I think Silva is good enough to survive in a kickboxing match. Karine Silva via rear-naked choke, round three. Put it on wax.  

 Props 

Lipski: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+900) Dec (+400)  

Silva: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+240) Dec (+400) 

Winner: Karine Silva | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Tim Means (+240) vs. Uros Medic (-300)

Means: DK: $7.1k | Medic: DK: $9.1k

Castor Troy is back. Tim Means is an OG with general stripes – after a decade in the game, he’s still winning fights. Means has one of the most unassuming jabs in the game. It’s a boxcutter jab. He’ll shank your ass real quick, “Sst! Sst! Sst!” and leave you bleeding in the yard with the riot sirens blaring. Means is approaching fifty career professional bouts and thirty under the UFC banner. Means works the swing shift as a gatekeeper at the Bridge of Death, and this time around, he’ll be asking the savvy, young kickboxer Uros Medic these questions three. Uros Medic looks like a Cricket Wireless manager if Cricket Wireless managers could head-kick rowdy customers. This will be a battle of range; Medic has satellite-guided, drone-assisted long-range strikes, and Tim Means fights like an infantry grunt, in close quarters within the pocket, looking you in the eyes as he shoves the bayonet home.  

In his last bout, Uros got served up like a couple with a side of fries and some tzatziki sauce and needed a medic after the filthy choke he got caught in. I’m not even gonna try to pronounce the name of the guy who whooped Medic’s ass. My health insurance won’t cover the rehab. We’ll just say a damn Mongolian tore down Medic’s shitty wall. Uros Medic is a highly touted kickboxer with more kicks than an MPC drum machine. He is a southpaw and uses round kicks to attack your arms and leaves you running away like Red after Deebo stole his bike. He leaves your arms numb, like when you sleep on your stomach and suddenly wake up thinking you’re paralyzed. He has that Griffey swing with his left leg. Speaking of drum machine, if his kicks are 808s, his hands are the snares. Hit that Kanye 808s and Heartbreak! His hands are like freeways in Nebraska, straight as fook. They’re line drives- comebackers to the mound.   

Overall, Medic is an elite-level striker, but he can get got at the end of his punches. He exits the pocket passively after every attack. This means he ends a short combo and comes right back to the centerline. And his ground game ain’t it, boss. I ain’t your boss, pal. He got taken down seven times in his last bout and choked out once. Means isn't nearly as dangerous on the mat as Myktybek Orolbai (told you it was a mf!), but he still has a sneaky good ground game that can neutralize Medic’s superior striking. Medic is 9-2 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and two subs and is 3-2 in the UFC.   

Tim Means is from the 505, The Breaking Bad State, New Mexico. Yours truly has roots in The Burque. Means is the embodiment of the Jesse Pinkman trap house – filthy, grimy, and seedy. You aren’t getting your deposit back after Tim Means rolls through and f**ks shit up. He wears fight shorts underneath his hazmat suit and will be doing midlife crisis donuts in an orange Challenger in an empty parking lot if he can pull this one off. Over the years, Means has slowed down on the feet. But he still throws jabs like ninja stars. He’ll leave you looking like Butters in no time. Tim Means can eat a peach for hours. He takes his time, working precisely behind his jab, varying the speed, and using volume to jab your face... off. He relies on volume to swarm you because his hand speed skipped leg day. It lost a step. But he’s still crafty like Hobby Lobby and adds standing counter knees and elbows to fill in the gaps.   

Tim’s paths to victory are in the clinch, Nolan Ryan dirty boxing, and the mat, controlling the top position. Means has some sneaky recess schoolyard trips from the clinch and some nasty ground and pound punctuated by heavy elbows. Medic will want to keep the fight standing at range, while Means will want to close the distance and stay away from the middle ground, aka no-man's land, where he can get kicked to pieces. Means is 33-15 for his career with twenty TKO/KOs and five subs. Both fighters average over five SLpM, but Means also averages over one takedown per fifteen minutes. And Medic rocks a forty-six percent takedown defense like see-through hand-me-downs.   

Medic is the (-300) favorite, and Means is the (+240) mangy dog. Even though Medic doesn’t have good takedown defense, Means doesn’t always commit to his wrestling. If he can’t get Medic to the mat, it will only be a matter of time until Medic catches him on the feet. But Means can make it ugly. At the end of the night, the night has to end, and Means is willing to take home 4s and 5s, while Medic sticks strictly to 8s and 9s. Medic doesn’t like his scraps ugly. I like Tim Means's value for a late finish if he can get it to the third round. But that will be tough. Uros Medic via TKO, round two. Put it on wax. 

Props 

Medic: TKO/KO (-120) Sub (+800) Dec (+450)   

Means: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+1800) Dec (+450) 

Winner: Uros Medic | Method: TKO Rd.2

Jonathan Pearce (-170) vs. David Onama (+140)

Pearce: DK: $8.6k | Onama: DK:$7.6k

David Onama: One Night in San Diego. You may remember David Onama from the Brazzers beating Nate Landwehr put on him two years ago in the San Diego Sports Arena. Onama has since rebounded with an impressive second-round TKO in his most recent performance against Gabriel Santos. Even in the Landwehr fight, Onama showed he has that Costco $1.50 dog in him. This kid has always reminded me of a vegan Israel Adesanya – low cholesterol Israel Adesanya. He fights long, and his hands are so fast it looks like he never throws them. Onama will be the striker in this striker vs. grappler matchup, and Pearce vs. Onama will be a mismatch wherever it plays out. Onama will have a massive advantage on the feet, and Pearce will have an equally massive advantage on the mat. This one could turn out to be the best fight on the main card. 

Cue that Pharell “Grindin’” beat and hand Pusha-T the mic. Jonathan Pearce is the definition of a grinder on the mat. He looks like the kid who ate paste in kindergarten. “I eat paste.”-Ralph Wiggum. He looks like one of Cletus’s kids all grown up, and he’ll squash you like roadkill and eat good tonight. Pearce is a backyard wrastler; he’ll hit you with trashcan lids, fists wrapped in barbed wire, and ten-foot ladders. He’ll hit you with everything but the squirrel fetus floating in a formaldehyde jar. Physically, Pearce doesn’t look imposing, but he has that wiry strength – like his dad made him mow the lawn growing up. Pearce was indoctrinated at the Khabib Seminary. He pays tithing to the Church of Khabib. He never gives up on his takedowns - because he can’t afford to like Renato Moicano can’t afford to lose. Once he gets you to the mat, he’ll rub your ass to the moonshine on some ODB type-shit. Elbows and hammer fists, hammer fists and elbows - sprinkle in some nasty chokes, and you got a recipe for a Jonathan Pearce ass whoopin'.  

But on the feet, Pearce is a sandlot striker, a pick-up game striker. He has hands like Lego people. He’s a puncher, not a boxer - a kicker, not a kickboxer. He commits to heavy, wide hooks with the sole purpose of closing the distance to initiate the clinch or a level change. Pearce is 14-5 for his career with noine TKO/KOs and two subs. He’s damage over submission and both over position. What’s crazy is that Pearce averages slightly more SLpM than David Onama at just over five and a half. Onama lands just under five and a half. Pearce puts a striker’s pace on you from the top position while averaging nearly five and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes.   

David Onama might need a lawyer after this one if Pearce can’t get him to the mat. Better Call Saul. This will be cruel and unusual if Pearce can’t grind out an early finish. This will be war crimes on the feet - international tribunals. Onama hits you so fast your head snaps back a second after he lands. It’s like lightning before thunder. For all my old MMA heads, Onama reminds me not only of Izzy but of a more reserved Melvin Guillard. Guillard was wild AF with blinding speed and super athletic. That’s Onama, except Onama doesn’t howl at the moon. But he does have more dog in him than the Humane Society. He has more dog than DMX adlibs. He’s a glutton for punishment and will keep walking forward in the face of any apocalyptic bombardment.   

But on the mat, David Onama is more like Larry David. Cue that Curb Your Enthusiasm theme music. Onama is always getting into some shit on the mat. He’s no TLC scrub, but he often ends up in terrible positions and relies on power to escape rather than technique. But I do like Onama’s chances of surviving on the mat more than I like Pearce’s chances of surviving on the feet. Onama is 11-2 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and four subs.  

Pearce will be the (-170) favorite, and Onama will be the (+140) live-ass dog. Matter of fact – Bring ‘em out! Bring ‘em out! Bust out the Piso Mojado signs. David Onama will be dripping value all over your freshly Swiffer’d floor. The play for Onama is a late TKO/KO. There’s also value in a decision if he has to survive on the mat early and come back late (which is likely), but there’s just too much of a gap on the feet for him not to hurt Pearce at some point. I think the play for Pearce is a decision. In thirteen pro fights, Onama hasn’t been finished. He’s tough and will keep fighting to get back to his feet. Pearce will have a ton of Fantasy value in takedowns, top control time, and strikes landed. But I’m rolling with the dog. Never forget, Joe Lauzon KO’d Pearce in just over a minute in Pearce’s debut. David Onama via TKO, round three. Wax on, wax off.  

Props 

Pearce: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+500) Dec (+200)   

Onama: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+900) Dec (+650) 

Winner: David Onama | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Ariane Lipski ($7.7k): This lady can throw hands. But can she stay on her feet? Karine Silva will undoubtedly try to get the fight to the mat early and often – all three of her UFC dubs came via first-round submission. I don’t think she will walk through Lipski as she has her previous opponents. The key for Lipski will be getting this to the second round and dragging Silva into deep waters. The Value Menu looks more like a clearance rack this week. Lipski will likely hover around the fifty to sixty significant strikes range with a shot at a late finish if Silva’s untested cardio doesn’t hold up. Silva has over twenty professional bouts to her name, but she has only seen a third round twice, and not since 2019. Survive and advance will be the game plan for Lipski.   

David Onama (7.6k): Onama will be in a similar situation to Lipski. He will one hunnid percent end up on his back right from the jump. But Onama is strong and athletic and doesn’t accept the bottom position without trying to scramble back to his feet. Onama will be an all-or-nothing option. He likely won’t rack up significant strikes because he will spend most of his time defending takedowns and getting back to his feet. But Jonathan Pearce is a walking bullseye on the feet. His striking was held back in the first grade twice; it’s far behind his grappling. Pearce will have to control the entire fifteen minutes from the top position (which he’s capable of doing), but that’s a tough task for even the elite wrestlers in the promotion. If at any time Pearce slows down or he can’t find an early finish, Onama will have a good chance of finishing the fight on his feet.   

Alex Perez ($7.5k): I flipped my main event pick. I originally picked Matheus Nicolau to do just enough on the feet to eke out a decision dub. But after further deliberation, with the first overall pick in the UFC Fight Night Draft, the Weekly KO would like to draft Alex Perez. He gave Mokaev all he could handle. Perez dominated every minute not spent on the mat and showed the ability to force scrambles and survive in a grimy, grinding fight. This time around, Perez doesn’t have to worry about his opponent’s wrestling. Instead, he can use his own wrestling, his best attribute. Also, Perez has nasty calf kicks that can alter any fight on the feet. The key for Perez will be patience and not chasing Nicolau around the cage where he will eventually run into one of Nicolau’s little-ass overhands or hooks. Perez can also stand and trade with Nicolau. But he’ll have to go full Merab and threaten with takedowns regardless of whether they are successful or not to even the power gap on the feet. Fantasy-wise, Perez is a triple threat; he can score on the feet, with takedowns and top control time, and he’s a submission threat.

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Rani Yahya ($6.7k): Rani Yahya is an OG grappling specialist. On his feet, he’s like Arnold in Total Recall when he loses his helmet on the surface of Mars. He looks like he’s on a planet without an atmosphere on his feet. But this guy has some crafty-ass takedowns and a filthy submission game. Yahya is a triple OG going way back to the glorious WEC days, and even as he’s pushing forty years old, he’s still winning fights. He is coming in off a first-round KO loss, but he has won two of his last three. Yahya is 28-11 with twenty-one subs and ZERO TKO/KOs. That’s all you need to know about Yayha; he’s submission or bust. But he can also dominate fights with takedowns and top control, and that shit adds up quick. But if he struggles to get Victor Henry to the mat, Henry will fill him with more holes than Spongebob.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

David Onama (+140): The undercard is filled with heavy dogs. You’ll likely have to look to the main card to find viable dogs with upset potential. Onama will be locked in a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. It will be a complete mismatch on the mat in favor of Pearce and on the feet in favor of Onama. If Onama can force short stand-up stretches, he’ll have a good chance of ending Pearce’s night early. Pearce’s striking isn’t very good. It’s not quite Stephen A. hitting pads, but it’s close. Onama needs to force scrambles and get back to his feet without giving up his back. He will likely spend the entirety of the first round on his back and have to mount a second-half comeback. But his superior athletic ability will keep him in the fight and give him a chance until the final bell.   

Alex Perez (+150): He once challenged Deiveson Figueiredo for the flyweight belt and fought the current champ, Alexandre Pantoja. Perez has been in the cage with the best of the best and held his own against the highly touted Muhammad Mokaev. Perez’s kryptonite is submission grapplers. Of his eight career L’s, five came via submission. Even though Nicolau has five career subs, none came in the UFC, and he’s far from a submission artist. Red flag: Perez is susceptible to guillotines when he shoots and will have to protect his neck. But if Mokaev couldn’t submit him, I don’t see Nicolau submitting him. Perez will win this fight if he can make it an MMA fight by cutting off the cage and forcing Nicolau to engage in extended exchanges on the feet which he can use to create level-change opportunities.   

Pick ‘Em 

Austen Lane (-105) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-115) 

Winner: Jhonata Diniz 

Method: TKO Rd.1 

Rani Yahya (+375) vs. Victor Henry (-500) 

Winner: Victor Henry 

Method: Decision 

Austin Hubbard (+130) vs. Michal Figlak (-155) 

Winner: Michal Figlak 

Method: Decision 

Don’Tale Mayes (+105) vs. Caio Machado (-125) 

Winner: Caio Machado 

Method: Decision 

Marnic Mann (+275) vs. Ketlen Souza (-350) 

Winner: Ketlen Souza 

Method: Decision 

James Llontop (-350) vs. Chris Padilla (+275) 

Winner: James Llontop 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Ivana Petrovic (-500) vs. Na Liang (+375) 

Winner: Ivana Petrovic 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Gabriel Benitez (+160) vs. Maheshate Hayisaer (-200) 

Winner: Maheshate Hayisaer 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1