Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Rose Namajunas (-225) vs. Amanda Ribas (+185)

Rose: DK: $9.2k | Ribas: DK:$7k

You wouldn’t ask why the Rose that grew from the blood-stained Octagon canvas has damaged petals. On the contrary, we would acknowledge her decade in the game - we would all celebrate her tenacity. We would all love her will to reach the throne. Don’t ask me why. Ask me how! 

And I’ll answer you thus: It’s because of that Thug Passion, baby! There can be only one. One Thug to rule them all. Thug Rose! Thug Rose! Thug Rose! I’m still Patiently waiting like 50 and Em for the day Rose Namajunas enters the cage with “Thug Life” tatted ‘cross the belly. What hasn’t she done? She has experienced the top shelf of highs: Beat the current Champion twice and the former strawweight GOAT... twice. But what are highs without lows? She’s been spiked inside the Octagon like a Gronk touchdown and was one-half the participants in the worst title fight of all time in which the glove touch during the final instructions was the only significant strike landed. Most recently, she was called into work and forced to train her replacement after a second straight loss for the first time in her UFC career. And she’s still standing here screamin’ f**k the Free World! 

And she’s still a Thug from a, Thug from a, Thug from around the way. Fook it! Make her an honorary Bone Thug, Rose Bone. Except, she doesn’t fight like it's the 1st of Tha Month; she fights like the money trees she’s standing underneath are always autumn, often not a dollar on ‘em. And that’s just how she feels. Rose doesn’t do this for Tha Love of $; she does it for the honey. She does it for the Buddah Lovaz and Budsmokers Only. Ten years in the game, and she still has the Mind of a Soulja and is still spreading Thug Luv all over the world. Mo’murda: That’s head kicking Weili Zhang to become a two-timer, a Champ squared, then beating her a second time for the people in the back who blinked. But this Saturday night, Rose will be playing a new role: Miss Bill Collector. Amanda Ribas’s heart has been writing checks her skills can’t cash. And it’s time to pay up.   

Dog-eat-dog and it’s about to be a feast. One of the keys for Rose against Amanda Ribas will be movement. Prime Rose patrols the pocket, pacing back and forth like a pit, waiting to photo-bomb the Amazon man’s picture of the package he left on the porch. The jab: Rose’s best weapon; she wields it like she’s fencing. Slicing and stabbing, Rose changes angles with her lead hand, seamlessly turning it into a hook/jab hybrid and using it as a counter mechanism. And from the bladed stance, she can stick you like pin cushions as she skirts along the outside, stifling your attacks and slowly boxing your face... off. Rose’s slip-counters are some of the best in the game, male and female. Rose forward/backward pivots while slipping and ripping and can advance ground or give up ground without leaving the pocket, always remaining in position to strike. When it comes to the stand-up, Rose is by far the superior of the two combatants. Another key for Rose will be trusting her grappling. 

The Carla Esparza title fight was the wackest of the wack because Rose didn’t trust her grappling. Had she trusted her underrated grappling, she would have had the confidence to let her hands and feets go. But she had a previous submission loss to Esparza, and the doubt worms worked their way into her head. Rose has five career submissions to two career TKO/KOs. The Weili Zhang head kick was only her second career stand-up finish. She is an excellent scrambler with underrated top and back control. Although Ribas seems to only engage in stand-up wars these days, she is possibly the best grappler in the division, even over Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Ribas has dubs over both of them. But Rose will have no problem getting back to her feet or edging out close rounds with late takedowns as long as she has a little bit of that George Michael’s “Faith” in her ground game. 

Numbers: Rose is 11-6 for her career, averaging just over three and a half SLpM to Ribas’s just under five. Rose also averages one and a half takedowns to Ribas’s two while rocking a sixty percent takedown defense. That there lies the path to victory for Ribas IF she wants to take it. But that’s a big if. I think this will play out mostly on the feet, which will favor Rose, the far better counterpuncher. Counterpunching will be the difference on the feet because Ribas starts and ends every fight NBA Jam on fire.   

Amanda Ribas fights like Ruth from Deuce Bigalow with Tourette's-like fits. But instead of shouting wild, random things, Ribas throws wild, random knees, elbows, shins, and fists. She can’t kick your ass fast enough, so she often tries to throw everything at the same time. Her striking almost looks like she’s throwing a tantrum in public. Ribas has a menacing cadence on the feet, like a knock-off, much better-looking Wanderlei Silva. A drunken cadence; that’s Ribas’s style on the feet. She often gets pulled over while shadowboxing because she looks faded. They give her a breathalyzer between rounds. 

“I need you to recite the alphabet from z to a backwards as fast as you can.” 

“... e, d, c, b, a...” 

“Remarkable. I’ve never actually seen someone do that.” 

But Ribas lacks tact, footwork, and head movement. That’s why, in every fight, she turns into Carrie at the Prom by the end of the first round. She has no feel for striking defense – at all. So, she has to overcompensate with reckless abandon. By the end of the fight, the arena looks like Silent Hill, with ash raining endlessly upon a dystopian hellscape. But during nuclear winter, Amanda Ribas goes tobogganing and cross-country skiing. Ribas’s best quality is that she has Merab cardio and can out-dawg a Belgium Malinois.   

But her major malfunction is often Fight IQ. Every Ribas fight is like the movie Wrong Turn; she always strays from the path to victory (on the mat) and ends up stranded in the woods with cannibals lurking nearby. The grappling angel on her shoulder has Tai Tuivasa takedown defense, so the striking devil always wins. She’s addicted to striking like Dustin Poirier is addicted to jumping gillies. Against Rose, Ribas has to tie up, clinch, and work trips. Rose is hypersensitive to takedown threats; Ribas has to plant the thought in Rose’s head. At the very least, that will make Rose tentative and lessen the striking gap. Ribas is the higher output striker, but her aggression will lead her face-first into Rose’s crispy counter punches. Level change feints and striking on the breaks will help Ribas make this a grimy fight where she thrives.   

Ribas is 12-4 with three TKO/KOs and four subs. Rose has been finished twice in her career (once by TKO/KO and once by sub), and Ribas has been finished three times, all by TKO/KO. If I had to pick one, I’d say Rose is a slightly better finishing threat. Ribas is Bruce Willis in this bish; she dies hard. She tends to run straight into the face of danger and never looks back. The more she gets hit, the more she engages – the harder she presses forward. I think that’s a bad habit against a slick counterstriker like Rose. But, once again, this could be another changing of the guard-type fight. Is the best of Rose Namajunas in the rearview, standing at Tha Crossroads? Rose is the (-175) favorite, and Ribas will be the (+145) live dog. Ribas can win this fight if she mixes up her approach and makes this a true mixed martial arts fight instead of a kickboxing bout.   

The main event-winning streak never got to streaking. We’ll likely never see another Tai Tuivasa shooey again. My man went from 100 to 0 like Sonny Bono on the slopes, real fookin’ quick. Baby hammerfists, instead of digging underhooks and defending the takedown is wild. But here we are. I just can’t see Ribas getting the fight to the mat consistently (or even trying to, for that matter) and out-striking Rose. Thug Rose, aka Rose Bone Namajunas, via decision. Put that ish on wax. 

Props 

Rose: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+800) Dec (+250)  

Ribas: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+600) Dec (+450) 

Winner: Rose Namajunas | Method: Decision

Karl Williams (-190) vs. Justin Tafa (+155)

Williams: DK: $9.3k | Tafa: DK: $6.9k

MMA’s longest-running question: Wrestler or striker? When I was a kid, I used to try to skateboard with the homies. They could bust out kickflips and varials and all sorts of grinds, and all I could do was a half-assed Ollie. The whole session, I would just Ollie and Ollie over and over, and it got to the point where I could Ollie over a pencil – my greatest skateboarding trick. I was a literal one-trick pony. These two guys are my skateboarding equivalent. They’re both one-trick ponies. Karl Williams is a formidable wrestler with mid-striking, and Justin Tafa is a formidable striker with the ground game of a pine box. Neither fighter is built to survive in the other’s domain. Either Karl Williams will get Justin Tafa to the mat early and Tai Tuivasa him with the quickness, or Justin Tafa will survive the early takedown and send Williams’ head into the upper deck like a 1998 homerun derby moon shot.   

If Karl Williams gets hold of you, he’ll throw you like barrels in a Strong Man contest – like barrels in Donkey Kong. This guy will throw you over those mountains like Uncle Rico. Karl Williams will lead the league in passing yards with your ass. He’ll set a new world record shot-putting your ass. He’ll go full-color guard on your ass. He’ll throw you in the air and crack your ass on the way down. Don’t you dare for one second take one look at Karl Williams and think shit’s sweet. He looks like Carl Winslow’s precinct got defunded, and he fell on hard times. But trust me, he ain’t sitting around feeling sorry for himself. He’s out in the Louisiana Bayou with Bobby Boucher, practicing power doubles on tackling sleds. Williams doesn’t take you down; he sacks your ass. Ten-yard loss type-ish. But once he gets you down, he doesn’t really know what to do next. 

Karl Williams’ major malfunction is striking - on the mat, on the feet, or on the fookin’ moon. It doesn’t matter where the fight goes; Williams isn’t built for striking. He’s built to get you to the mat and smother you. Karl’s stand-up looks like a watery mirage on the horizon that resembles the great Dan Henderson. He’s like a Pictionary Dan Hendo. Williams can throw for power; his hands are like small appliances, and he can hurt you if he lands. But overall, he has no professional cadence or footwork on the feet. He looks like a wrestler who just started taking boxing classes; he’s not a mixed martial artist yet. There are jagged, unsightly seams between his striking and wrestling/grappling. They don’t flow together. And his cardio’s alibi didn’t check out; it’s suspect. Williams might only be able to take down Tafa once or twice, and if he can’t score an early finish, he’ll get TKO/KOd.   

Musical Tafas. Justin Tafa was originally supposed to face Rogerio de Lima last month but got injured just before the fight, and his brother Junior stepped in to take the ass-whoopin' that was reserved for Justin. Now Justin is returning the favor and stepping in against Junior’s original opponent. The Tafa Bro’s are all striking and zero grappling, and they both have Sequoias for legs. Their hands are like short buses, and their legs are greyhounds, Winnebago's, semi-trucks – whichever you prefer. When the Tafas step into the cage, it looks like a demolition derby in that bish. It looks like an old-school Twisted Metal level in the cage. Justin is particularly deadly as a counter striker, and he comes equipped with a poor man’s O’Malley Moon Walk counter right hand. Against orthodox fighters, Justin likes to use the counter-right check-hook over the top of the opponent’s lead hand when they engage. For a massive man, Justin Tafa has some sneaky slick counter striking. If he can keep this fight standing, he should overwhelm Williams with power.  

But don’t let Tafa’s one hundred percent career takedown defense fool you; he hasn’t faced a wrestler one hundred percent committed to taking him down with the prowess of Karl Williams. In fact, Tafa has pretty much only beaten random guys who cut him off in traffic. They’re just random dudes who hopped out of the Sienna minivan when Tafa honked because they didn’t peel out immediately when the light turned green. Parker Porter is probably the best wrestler/grappler Tafa has faced thus far in his career, and Karl Williams is worlds above Porter skill-wise. The key for Tafa will be dominating the center cage and getting back to his feet without the aid of the cage. If he gets pushed against the cage, Williams will continue to string together takedown attempts and salt away rounds with control time against the cage.   

The numbers: Williams is 9-1 for his career with three TKO/KOs and zero subs. Zero submissions for a dominant wrestler is always a red flag. Williams will likely have to take the scenic route to victory, dominating on the mat for a full fifteen minutes without gassing. Tafa is 7-3 for his career, with all wins coming via TKO/KO. Fantasy-wise, Tafa is the higher output striker, averaging over five SLpM to Williams’ just below three. But Williams also averages four takedowns per fifteen minutes. Williams will be the (-180) favorite, and Tafa will be the (+150) dog. If live betting is legal in your state, this is one of those fights to take advantage of it. If this fight hits the halfway mark, it might be time to go all-in on Justin Tafa. Williams will gas eventually and will turn into a silhouette hanging at the end of a firing range on the feet. This is a complete toss-up. I think Williams can eke out the first two rounds and survive the last round with intermittent tie-ups. Karl “Winslow” Williams via decision. On wax. 

Props 

Williams: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+700) Dec (+165)  

Tafa: TKO/KO (+215) Sub (+2200) Dec (+1000) 

Winner: Karl Williams | Method: Decision

Edmen Shahbazyan (-195) vs. A.J. Dobson (+160)

Shahbazyan: DK: $9.1k | Dobson: DK:$7.1k

Edmen Shahbazyan's fights are special to me. The first Weekly KO ever-ever was Shahbazyan vs. Derek Brunson. Of course, I got off on the wrong foot by predicting Shahbazyan would be a future champion... I’d like to take this opportunity to apologize... To absolutely NObody!. I’m still standing here screamin’ f**k the Free World! Edmen Shahbazyan is a Flat Earther’s exhibit A because after starting his UFC career 4-0, he fell off the face of it. It became clear after the Brunny fight that Edmen was a male version of his main training partner, Ronda Rousey. But the demise of both fighters can be traced back to the worst coach in UFC history, Edmond Tarverdyan. “Head movement! Head movement!” Tarverdyan was like Nick Saban in the NFL. Patches O’Houlihan could teach better head movement. Honestly, I’d rather have Mike “Platinum” Perry’s wife in my corner than Tarverdyan. 

“That sounds like a whole lotta old shit to me, pawtna.” I ain’t you’re pawtna, guy. But it’s true, Edmond has long since moved to a new camp, Extreme Couture, and he has had slightly better performances since. Edmen is built like Spongebob with Kenny Smith’s legs. He has those Shannon Sharpe knees. Edmen’s major malfunction is that he isn’t built for movement. Footwork don’t live here. Edmen has that Erik the Actor footwork, “I’m club f**kin’ footed, asshole!” Edmen is one directional fighter who can only move forward in a straight line. His only means of defense is to completely vacate the pocket, and as a result, he has zero counterstriking. Shahbazyan has to lead the dance because he doesn’t anticipate return fire at all. But when he can get his punches off and be first to attack, Edmen has tight boxing and sleeper power and often looks the part of an elite striker.   

As a result of major flaws in his striking, Edmen usually has to rely on his wrestling to steal rounds with top control. Once he gets you to the mat, he holds on for: 

Dear Life, 

It’s me, Edmen... 

For a guy who averages over two takedowns per fifteen minutes, Shahbazyan only has one career submission win, which came against Jack Marshman. Who? In fact, all of Edmen’s dubs came against TBoz, Chili, and Left Eye – TLC scrubs. His best win to date came against Brad Tavares. Edmen is 12-4 for his career with ten TKO/KOs and one sub and averages three and a half SLpM to A.J. Dobson’s four and a half. This fight is tailor-made for Shahbazyan to be effective on the feet and on the mat. If Shahbazyan can’t win this fight... This Ikea futon has room for two. 

A.J. Dobson is a Bill Murray Groundhog Day striker. If he wakes up and sees his shadow, it will be another fifteen minutes of no striking. I don’t know how Dobson averages over four SLpM; it must be all the inside low kicks he throws. Death by inside low kick. Dobson is the king of racking up insignificant strikes. His idea of taking a risk is swimming right after he eats – eating leftovers from a week ago – ordering the cheese dip at Miguel’s - sitting too close to the TV. He has stoned hands, not hands of stone. They just want to lie on the couch all day and eat Funions. Dobson has lazy-ass hands. Take out the trash hands. Get a fookin’ job hands. Deadbeat hands. No call, no show hands. Display only, not for actual use hands. Homie wouldn’t move his hands if they were on fire. A.J. Dobson's ratio of inside low kicks to hand strikes is 10:1. But on the rare occasions when he lets his hands go, you see glimmers of a pretty solid striker. But he’s just not willing to risk exchanging.   

Overall, Dobson is as mid as you can get, and now that I think about it, I think he is a late replacement in this fight. But this is a fight he can absolutely win if he can survive Edmen’s patented first-round fast start and keep the fight standing after that. All he has to do is let his fookin’ hands go. Dobson is 7-2 for his career with three TKO/KOs and two subs and is 1-2 in the UFC.   

Shahbazyan will be the (-180) favorite, and Dobson is the (+150) dog. Edmen has to win this fight. There’s no excuse for losing this one. “The dog ate my cardio.” The only path to defeat for Edmen is if he gases and gets outworked in the later rounds. Dobson has yet to be finished in his career, but Shahbazyan has the skills to be the first to put an end to that streak. But I think the best play for both fighters is a win by decision. Here’s to the 2020 me: Edmen Shahbazyan via decision. Put that ish on wax. 

 Props 

Shahbazyan: TKO/KO (+130) Sub (+800) Dec (+300)  

Dobson: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+1100) Dec (+350) 

Winner: Edmen Shahbazyan | Method: Decision

Payton Talbott (-155) vs. Cameron Saaiman (+130)

Talbott: DK: $8.3k | Saaiman: DK: $7.9k

Dustin from Stranger Things is all grown up and now a bad-ass, promising UFC prospect. Payton Talbott looks like Dustin met David Goggins and got his life in order with twenty-four-hour burpees sessions. This kid Payton Talbott is Max Holloway, the generic version, complete with the in-your-face squared stance and never-ending hand combinations. He will be making his second UFC start against another promising prospect in Cameron Saaiman, aka Honey I Shrunk the Ian Garry. These guys are both 1:55 scale die-cast models of proven UFC veterans, and this fight could be the best one on the main card.   

Payton Talbott set the bantamweight Contender Series striking record with one hundred forty-five significant strikes in his contract-earning appearance. This kid’s punches go directly to the SPAM folder. He has that Max Holloway output, complete with darts like pool halls. The dart punch is a sneaky rear-hand punch from a squared stance that allows you to exit the pocket out the back door simultaneously. It’s almost like a hybrid cross/jab with the rear hand. His stature/posture/stance is like a Chuck/Max hybrid. He throws from his chest like Chuck and peruses with volume like Max. He’s an amalgamation. But he’s all offense and zero defense. Offensively, Talbott is Bodhi swimming out to catch the tsunami wave, knowing he ain’t coming back. Talbott has UC college offense and junior college drop-out defense.  

So far, Talbott’s major malfunction is his takedown defense and overall ground game. Nick Aguirre caused Talbott all kinds of problems in Talbott’s debut, a fight Talbott eventually won by third-round sub. But on the mat, Talbott showed he is a power top and a submissive bottom. From the top, he is ground and pound over position, but from the bottom, his guard... doesn’t. It don’t guard shit. Talbott was able to eventually get back to his feet against Aguirre, but he was in danger of losing close rounds due to control time. Talbott is young, dumb, and full of love, rocking an immature 7-0 record with five TKO/KOs and one sub. Overall, Talbott is a kid to keep your eye on; he has a ton of skills and plenty of room to grow and should be a groovy little sleeper for years to come.   

Super Saaiman. Cameron Saaiman is Ian Garry rocking the Ant-Man suit and doesn’t look a day over sixth-grade camp. Cameron Saaiman is bad-ass James Kennedy for all my Vanderpump heads out there. He looks like a Vegas pool DJ, and he’ll throw everything at you except the turntables. Super Saaiman is a Be First & Be Often majority stakeholder. That’s my line of throw pillows on sale at Bed Bath & Beyond before they went out of business. Saaiman is the Steve Young of the UFC; he’s the master of the West Coast offense, slowly matriculating the ball up the field. That Blue Sky makes for a hell of a pre-workout, and Cameron Saaiman injects it directly into his veins before stepping into the Octagon. He just stays busy, poking and prodding you with jabs and alternating round kicks. Saaiman has Original Recipe crispy hands and swap meet Yair kicks.   

Like Talbott, Saaiman’s major malfunction is his striking defense. He has that People’s Court neck brace head movement. Worker’s comp head movement; Private Dicks hiding in the bushes type-shit. Saaiman only moves in Etch-A-Sketch straight lines and stands at attention, head high in the air, after every combination. He often gets clipped at the end of his combos because he finishes straight back instead of rolling off his punches. Saaiman is 9-1 for his career with six TKO/KOs and one sub. He suffered his first loss in his last bout to Christian Rodriguez because, although he’s a solid grappler, Saaiman is usually just a step behind on the mat. Saaiman averages just under five and a half SLpM with a high of one hundred seventeen in a three-round bout.   

Talbott will be the (-170) favorite, and Saaiman will be the (+140) live-ass dog. Saaiman can steal rounds with timely takedowns and has the output to keep up with Talbott. The power advantage will be in Talbott’s favor, but Saaiman is the far more diverse striker, using an array of kicks to punctuate his quick hand combinations. This fight has split-decision written all over it. I think Talbott is the slightly better finishing threat, but a decision is likely the best play. Payton Talbott via decision. Put it on wax. 

Props 

Talbott: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+700) Dec (+180)   

Saaiman: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+1800) Dec (+200) 

Winner: Payton Talbott | Method: Decision

Billy Quarantillo (-140) vs. Youssef Zalal (+115)

Billy Q: DK: $8.6k | Zalal: DK:$7.6k

Weekly KO favorite Billy Q. is back. We just missed an absolute banger. Gabriel Miranda was Billy’s original opponent, and that matchup would have been a one-round, wild scrap. Instead, the once promising prospect, Youssef Zalal, will be making his re-debut after going winless in his last four UFC bouts and getting the red tag in his locker. I’m old enough to remember picking Zalal to beat a guy making a late replacement debut named Ilia Topuria. Topuria stepped in just days before the fight, and I didn’t have time to watch his tape and picked Zalal by sub. I guess I haven’t learned much because I’m still out here picking against Topuria. SMDH. Anywho, Zalal is a dope little fighter, even though he fell on hard times after starting his UFC career 3-0. This will still be a banger wherever the fight goes. Why? Because every single Billy Q. fight is a fookin’ banger.   

Billy Q. is an outlaw inside the cage. Billy the Kid Quarantillo, except he’s a thirty-five-year-old grown-ass man. He doesn’t abide by any civilized rules inside the Octagon; it’s truly the Wild West when Billy walks through the batwing saloon doors into the arena. Billy is an amoeba. This guy will be snowboarding, doing half pipe ten-eighties during nuclear winter. His style on the feet is a dirty boxer. Cue that Christina Aguilera and Redman, “Dirrty.” Oh, no, he didn’t. Oh, yes, he did. Let's get dirty! Quarantillo must have been an ancient Mongolian in his previous life because he pillages fighters in the clinch with knees and elbows.   

“Cot damn Mongolians! Breaking down my shitty wall!” 

Billy Q. is a one-man horde. He storms your castle with wide hooks/overhands and nonstop pressure. But as is a running theme on this card, Billy Q. has no defense and usually gets his ass kicked before he turns up. He tends to start slower than the Cowboys in free agency. Billy usually spots you a round before he starts scrappin'; he prefers to go down 0-2 in the count before he starts hacking away. But Billy Q. is straight Dogg Pound like Daz and Kurupt. He has more dog in him than the Humane Society. Billy is 18-5 for his career with eight TKO/KOs and five subs and averages over seven and a half SLpM. He has eclipsed the one hundred significant strikes mark four times in ten UFC bouts. Dude drops Chef Curry numbers even in a loss.   

I was wondering what happened to Youssef Zalal. It turns out, he was sent down to the minors to work on his swing. Since his last UFC appearance in 2022, Zalal has gone 3-0 with three first-round finishes (checks opponents’ records). Shouldn’t have done that. Zalal’s most recent win last August came against a guy making his professional debut. I didn’t even know that was legal. And one opponent had a 6-5 record. They sent my man Zalal all the way to single-A. They sent him to Beer League ringer status. Before Ilia Topuria ruined Youssef Zalal, Zalal was a high-level grappler with slick striking. Somewhere along the way, he became mostly a grappler, and he just wasn’t good enough to stand with guys like the Human Hieroglyph Sean Woodson and Seung Woo Choi. 

Zalal’s path to victory is taking down Billy Q. and controlling the top position for three rounds. He doesn’t have that extra sixth, ass-kicking gear that Billy has. This is a terrible return fight for Zalal, but beggars can’t be choosers. Sometimes, you just have to take lumps and keep it moving. Billy Q. is the (-165) favorite, and Zalal is the (+130) dog. I thought Billy Q. would be in the (-300)s. I can’t drop my Andy Jack fast enough on Billy Q. I would play Billy straight up or for a TKO/KO finish, likely late in the fight. Billy Quarantillo via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.

Props 

Billy Q: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+1000) Dec (+140)   

Zalal: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+1200) Dec (+185) 

Winner: Billy Q | Method: Decision

Luis Pajuelo (+135) vs. Fernando Padilla (-165)

Pajuelo: DK: $7.5k | Padilla: DK:$8.7k

Stop, drop, and roll. MFs will be on fire during this one. Human torch-type ish. Luis Pajuelo is making his UFC debut after a dominant first-round drubbing on the Contender Series. This kid rushes into a burning building like Mark Coleman just so he can huff all the smoke. And Fernando Padilla is a Tenth Planet Jiu-Jitsu extraterrestrial with slick submissions and sneaky, catch-you-by-the-boo-boo striking. I don’t know much about Pajuelo, but I know enough to say he will come out guns blazing like the Punisher double-fisting a pair of uzis. Make sure you get all the Mary Jane politicking out of the way before this one because it’s sure to be a banger.   

Luis Pajuelo is a Unabomber hermit in the pocket. Pajuelo gets out of pocket in the pocket, if you know what I mean. He punches, knees, and kicks until the power meter is drained, and you have to take a couple laps around the cage to let it regenerate. His Contender Series fight looked like a work scrap out back by the loading docks. Like he had enough of John in Receiving’s shit. He handed out a workman-like, blue-collar ass whoopin’, applying more pressure on his opponent than Lizzo does on a couch. All you have to do with this guy is put an ass in front of him, point him in the right direction, and he’s gonna kick the shit outta it. That sentence was starting to get a little sketchy for a second. Watching a couple of Pajuelo’s fights, I got the sense that he fights just so he can hurt people. He doesn’t cash his fight checks; homie pays the promoter to fight.   

But, in keeping with this week’s theme, Pajuelo lacks any kind of defensive awareness. He’s too busy stringing together extended combinations to worry about defense. But the biggest question is his ground game. I have no idea if this kid can survive a Jitz specialist on the mat if Padilla decides to use his grappling for the first time in the UFC. So far, Padilla has chosen to stand and bang in his first UFC bouts, which led to a first-round TKO in his debut against the heathen Julian Erosa and a close decision loss to “Dammit” Kyle Nelson. Pajuelo is 8-1 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and landed thirty-five significant strikes in just over three minutes during his Contender Series dub.   

Fernando Padilla is one of those guys who has had a full career outside the Octagon before finally getting the call-up to the big leagues. He’s like a guy who fought his way up from single to triple-A, having fought for LFA, Fury FC, and King of the Cage. Padilla has losses to Dan Ige and former UFC heathen Spike Carlyle. He made his UFC debut against Julian Erosa and TKO’d Erosa in under two minutes. But I think Padilla’s striking is overrated. Like Stevey, I don’t see it. I see stiff. I see straight lines with no head movement. I see dead people if he keeps his chin defiantly in the air against Luis Pajuelo, as he has a habit of doing. Even against Erosa, Padilla played with a lit M-80 when exchanging back and forth. I want to see this kid’s ground game. His path to victory will be tying up Pajuelo and attacking subs on the mat. He can stand and bang with Pajuelo; he has tight, technical kickboxing, but Padialla, you better check yo’ self before you wreck yo’ self. 'Cause standing with Luis Pajuelo is bad for your health.    

Padilla made first contact like Jodie Foster with Sentinelese savage Kyle Nelson in his last bout and was lucky to swim off the island alive. Padilla travels along the Brendan Allen spectrum; his striking is good enough to convince himself that he can stand and bang with anyone, but it’s not. He needs to get the fight to the mat and go sub-hunting, “Be vewy, vewy quiet. I’m hunting triangle chokes.” Use that Eddie Bravo rubber guard and go full Nick Diaz vs. Takanori Gomie on a MF. Padilla is 15-5 with five TKO/KOs and eight subs and averages five and a half SLpM. 

Padilla will be the (-160) favorite, and Pajuelo will be the (+130) dog with a huge upside. Both fighters are big finishing threats. Padilla can finish Pajuelo on the mat if he decides to use his grappling for a change, and Pajuelo can overwhelm Padilla on the feet and be the first fighter to finish Padilla. Pajuelo is also a huge gamble because there just isn’t much film on him. But if he can keep his first-round pace throughout the fight and stay on his feet, he will be a problem. Fook it! When in doubt, take the dog. Luis Pajuelo via decision. You know what to do with it. Put that ish on wax.  

Props 

Pajuelo: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1400) Dec (+400)   

Padilla: TKO/KO (+225) Sub (+550) Dec (+250) 

Winner: Luis Padilla | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Cameron Saaiman ($7.9k): A matchup of two high-output strikers usually results in a Zion Williamson stat line, win or lose. Saaiman averages over five SLpM, with the ability to eclipse the one hundred strikes mark. Saaiman also rocks a fanny pack with sneaky takedowns tucked inside, which he can use to steal close rounds. Although I think Payton Talbott is the better finishing threat, Saaiman can keep up output-wise with the guy who set the bantamweight striking record on the Contender Series. This kid is an overachiever; he asks for homework on the weekends. He’s the kid who didn’t look up the odd answers in his math book. He will stay busy inside low kicking, putting together quick two to three-punch combos, and shooting occasional takedowns if Talbott gets out of pocket. He’s a sixth-man-of-the-year candidate who can put up valuable points coming off the bench.     

Julian Erosa ($7.3k): This is an all-or-nothing pick right here. Julian Erosa vs. Ricardo Ramos is a fookin’ banger between two schizophrenic fighters. Both guys can go from looking like Mickey Knox Natural Born Killers in one fight to TLC Scrubs in the next. When you think Julian Erosa is about to get his ass cracked like Parks & Rec single-ply TP, he goes out and KOs Nate Landwehr within one minute with a flying knee and chokes out Charles Jourdain. When you think he’s about to merk someone, he goes out and gets flatlined in back-to-back scraps against Bruce Leeroy and Fernando Padilla. But make no mistake, Julian Erosa travels along the Chito Vera spectrum, a damage-over-everything striker who uses all the tools on his work belt to inflict pain and damage, but mostly pain. I can say the exact same thing for his opponent, Ricardo Ramos. Ramos has the slickest counter-spinning back elbow the game has ever seen, and it is tailor-made to land on aggressive fighters like Julian Erosa. One of these guys will get a phat whiff of the smelling salt at the end of this one, and it’s 50/50 if that will be Erosa.   

Igor Severino ($7.2k): Igor Severino vs. Andre Lima is an undercover banger between two debutantes coming off the Contender Series. These are the toughest fights to get any kind of read on. But these two guys throw the brown-streaked chonies to the wind and let it all hang out. In his Contender Series bout, Igor Severino landed seventy-five significant strikes in a round and a half of work on his way to a TKO dub. This guy comes out swinging from his hotel room, through the lobby, in his Uber, in the locker room, while making his walk to the cage, and after he finishes his opponent – all the way back to his hotel room. Igor is 8-0 with a one-hunnid-percent finishing rate – four TKO/KOs and four subs. His opponent, Andre Lima, is a little more reserved/technical, but if he gets to half-stepping as the (-175) favorite, Severino will overwhelm him with power and volume on the feet. Severino’s upside is a finish because that's all he does; he finishes what he starts.  

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Justin Tafa ($6.9k): Last week, OSP pulled it off. I’ll be damned. I didn’t have OSP winning a fight (or even participating in a fight) on my 2024 Bingo card. In general, the Clearance Rack has produced some valuable flippers to start 2024. Justin Tafa is another all-or-nothing pick, but he’ll have a massive advantage in one area of the fight, on the feet. If he can survive the first round against Karl Williams, Williams will eventually gas and be S.O.L. on the feet. In his last bout, Williams was one for ten on takedowns against PC Principal Chase Sherman. Sherman is out here bare-knuckle boxing meow. He ain’t even in the league anymore. If Williams struggled with Sherman, Tafa would cause Williams problems, too, as long as he could get the fight to the second round, where the takedown well tends to dry up for Williams. Tafa is another one-hunnid-percent finisher with seven TKO/KOs.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Igor Severino (+150): Twenty Twen-Twens went 2-0 last weekend, and both were in the (+150-155) odds range. Igor is another sleeper with the power and uber aggression to pull off another buck-fiddy upset. This fight will be FX Nip/Tuck all the way to the final bell if someone can’t score a finish. The judges will be sweating like the Jordan Peele meme, praying for someone to finish the fight so they don’t have to score this one. 50/50 coin flip exchanges will be the storyline of this one. Someone will get got, and although I’m leaning toward Andre Lima to win, my Hamilton will be on Igor Severino.  

Mohammed Usman (+125): Usman vs. Parkin will be like a slow-speed, head-on car crash with both fighters pushing their whips as if they died in the middle of traffic. This one will look like you sat on the remote and accidentally set the playback to half speed. I have been less than impressed with both Usman and Michael Parkin, but Usman has that Dim Mak bottom brick power if he lands. This dude is Kamaru Usman rolled around in the turtle ooze. He’s not nearly as skilled as his little brother, but Mohammed can crack when he gets to winging those Thor hammers he has for hands. The key will be avoiding the clinch and not letting Parkin salt away rounds by holding Usman against the fence. In the open mat, Usman can drop the bomb on Parkin, who has underwater hand speed.  

Luis Pajuelo (+135): I’m not sold on Fernando Padilla as a striker. If Padilla comes in doing the same ol’ half step, trying to strike against a more dangerous striker, he will get got. This kid Luis Pajuelo ain’t fookin’ around. He’s coming in much like Igor Severino, throwing bombs from the continental breakfast all the way into the Octagon. Avoiding Padilla’s straight, quick punches down the middle will be the key for Pajuelo; he carries his hands low and chin high and engages with nothing but extended combinations. This can be a gift and a curse. But Pajuelo will have the power advantage and the overall IDGAF mentality advantage, and this one is a complete toss-up. 

Pick ‘Em 

Kurt Holobaugh (+120) vs. Trey Ogden (-150) 

Winner: Trey Ogden 

Method: Decision 

Ricardo Ramos (-155) vs. Julian Erosa (+130) 

Winner: Ricardo Ramos  

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Miles Johns (-150) vs. Cody Gibson (+120) 

Winner: Miles Johns 

Method: Decision 

Jarno Errens (+145) vs. Steven Nguyen (-175) 

Winner: Steven Nguyen 

Method: Decision 

Monsterrat Rendon (+180) vs. Dariya Zheleznyakova (-220) 

Winner: Dariya Zheleznyakova 

Method: Decision 

Igor Severino (+150) vs. Andre Lima (-175) 

Winner: Andre Lima 

Method: Decision 

Mohammed Usman (+120) vs. Michael Parkin (-150) 

Winner: Michael Parkin 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1