Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+145) vs. Shamil Gaziev (-175)

Rozenstruik: DK: $7.9k | Gaziev: DK:$8.3k

When I die, bury me in Sulawesi, Indonesia, lest I be exhumed, dressed in a pair Dickies and a Pro Club white tee, accessorized with blunts in both hands, and paraded around town like a grand marshal blowing smoke rings in the face of death.  

It’s that time of year again. The time of year when the Toraja people exhume Jairzinho Rozenstruik, outfit him in a pair of Venom fight shorts like a life-size Ken doll, affix upon his head a crown of spikes (to deter birds from perching), and prop him up inside the Octagon to partake in death as he did in life. A suggestion was made this year to clad him in a Gi and adorn it with a blue sash around the waist. Another suggestion: A singlet and a pair of Asics Mat Flex. These ideas were shot down by the elders. A zebra can’t change its stripes.   

“Bigi Boy” is a striker. Sometimes. And other times, he’s the Jebediah Springfield of MMA, standing motionless in the cage. Turned down. For what? Who knows. Sometimes, it turns into Weekend at Rozenstruik’s inside the Octagon, and his cornermen have to come in and take control of him like a puppet master does a marionette. For twenty-four minutes, Jairzinho will stand like the Queen’s guard, at rapt attention, and then, out of nowhere, he twitches, and you suddenly wake up outside the pearly gates, confusion written upon your face. Your grammy greets you with a stack of sweaters she made for you for Christmas for the past thirty years, with grandpappy at her side talking about the Cowboys beating the Steelers in the Super Bowl.   

He is a conundrum. Jairzinho holds the ultimate power of life and death in his hands but often chooses not to wield it. With great power comes great responsibility. Memberberries when Jairzinho let Alistair Overeem win twenty-four minutes and fifty seconds of a fight and then KO’d The Reem in the closing moments, leaving him looking like the Joker, a smile on his face literally from ear to ear? On rare occasions when Rozenstruik lets his hands go, he emits power like when stars die. Opponents seize up and look like they got hit with a taser when Bigi Boy lands. His punches have the highest ratio of power per inch traveled in the entire promotion. There is no winding-up or wide arcing trajectories; he doesn’t even really turn his hips over. He’s one of the deadliest arm punchers in the game, traveling more along the Sean Strickland spectrum than the Sergei Pavlovich spectrum.   

Speaking of Pavlovich, why isn't Jairzinho fighting him? Or give him Derrick Lewis already. How ‘bout Tai Tuivasa? Why does the UFC keep giving the Black Beast and Bigi Boy wrestlers? Cue Shamil Gaziev stage right. A fighter whose last name ends in “ev” is to Rozenstruik what salt is to a slug. What water is to a mogwai. The James Toney low-ankle pick is Rozenstruik’s kryptonite. If Jairzinho had to defend a takedown to save his life, they’d show his portrait at the Oscars during the “Those We Lost” segment. One major glitch in Rozenstruik’s takedown defense is the habit of leading with a lead hook. Every single time he leads with a hook, the opponent ducks under it and takes him down. Jairzinho needs to replace the lead hook with a jab; it’s less telegraphed, shorter to the target, and more likely to disrupt the timing of a takedown.   

But I say all that to say this: This is a very winnable fight for Rozenstruik. Shamil Gaziev, aka The Round Mound of Throwdown, has that Abusupyian urban legend feel to him. He looks like a savage with blood stains around his mouf like kids drinking Kool-Aid. But he hasn’t been tested. And he has a propensity for engaging in wild fisticuffs on the feet. There’s a good chance Gaziev will test the stand-up waters before resorting to his wrestling game. If that’s the case and Gaziev fooks around, he will find out. Gaziev’s aggressive style on the feet is exactly what Rozenstruik needs. He needs someone to bring the fight to him and force him to let his hands go. Gaziev could awaken a sleeping Rozenstruik.   

Rozenstruik is 13-5 for his career with twelve TKO/KOs. The bad news is that Jairzinho has lost three of his last four, and Chris Daukaus ain’t coming out of that tunnel like Paul Pierce in a wheelchair. Fantasy-wise, Jairzinho averages less than three SLpM with a career high of eighty-noine. But his second highest striking output is forty-two. Jairzinho's style makes him an easy bet; he’s TKO/KO or bust. Gaziev is 12-0 and has never tasted defeat, but Jairzinho will have the striking advantage. His short punches will fit perfectly between Gaziev’s wide, looping punches.   

Shamil Gaziev is built like a Food Network star. He reminds me of a peanut allergy Khamzat. This guy’s fights are like Nat Geo wilderness documentaries. For his debut, producers followed Gaziev around in the forest for a year, living like him, mimicking his mannerisms and behavior, attempting to gain his confidence. At the end of Gaziev’s fights, they have to blur out the body of his opponent lying on the canvas. Gaziev is the bear that Khabib wrestled when he was a kid. Where Are They Now: Shamil Gaziev. He’s whoopin’ Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s ass in UFC main events. He's built like Tony Soprano and hits you like dads in the 80s.   

“I don’t want my brocco—” 

Whack! 

His feel-out process is throwing bombs at the sound of the bell. His hands are tire irons, and he hands out Mafia beatings. Gaziev isn’t a technical striker; he’s an overwhelming striker. This guy just lowers his head and swings for the fences. He does a good job of ducking as he wings overhands and takes his head off centerline after every punch. And for a guy built like DJ Khaled, Gaziev can push a heavy pace. His best weapon is pressure. Cue that “Diamonds” by Rihanna. Shine bright like a diamond. If pressure makes diamonds, Martin Buday is the three thousand carat Cullinan Diamond after what Gaziev did to him in Gaziev’s debut. He beat Buday like he was logged into Gaziev’s Netflix account. But for how long can Gaziev keep up that pressure?  

Eight of Gaziev’s twelve career fights ended in the first round, and he has only seen a third round once. And he’s built like the Mucinex booger. One thing Jairzinho is a master at is waiting you out. As long as he can stay on his feet, Jairzinho can take the Homer Simpson approach and wait out Gaziev until he gasses in the later rounds. But if Gaziev only stands long enough to pressure Jairzinho against the cage and takes him down, this fight will look like Jairzinho vs Jailton Almeida did. Gaziev doesn’t need to pass the guard; he makes the half-guard a dominant position. Once Jairzinho ends up on his back, you need a Ouija board to resurrect him. Gaziev can overwhelm Jairzinho early on the feet and put him away the way Volkov did, but that’s too risky. Like Nas only needs One Mic, Jairzinho only needs one punch.   

Fantasy-wise, Gaziev is a finisher. Eight of his twelve dubs came via TKO/KO and three by sub. He averages over six SLpM and landed fifty in just over five minutes in his debut against Martin Buday. There is zero chance this one goes the distance. The play for both fighters is a TKO/KO finish, but there is additional value in a submission for Gaziev. Rozenstruik is coming in off the first submission loss of his career against Jailton Almeida, and Gaziev has the grappling to pull off a similar outcome. Gaziev is the (-140) favorite, and Rozenstruik is the (+115) live dog. I’m telling you, this has Strickland vs. Abusupyian feels, when little was known about Abus. If Gaziev fights with his ego and tries to prove a point on the feet, he will get got. Even if Rozenstruik only throws two punches the entire fight.   

The main event L streak now sits at three after an imposter showed up in Brandon Moreno’s steed last weekend in Mexico City. If you can’t trust Brandon Moreno, who can you trust? Dogs have now won four of the last five main events and three in a row. And the dog has a good shot again this week. But I just can’t put any faith in Jairzinho Rozenstruik against a guy who can ground him like restriction. Shamil Gaziev via TKO, round two. On wax.

Props 

Rozenstruik: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+2200) Dec (+1800)  

Gaziev: TKO/KO (+130) Sub (+275) Dec (+1400) 

Winner: Shamil Gaziev | Method: TKO Rd.2

Umar Nurmagomedov (-1200) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (+750)

Umar: DK: $9.7k | Almakhan: DK: $6.5k

I’m flipping the script this week. I’m making my own co-main event. You’ve never seen anyone like Umar Nurmagomedov. It seems like there are Nurmagomedovs everywhere these days; they’re multiplying like feral cats. But since the retirement of Khabib, Umar, aka Fumar, is the only Nurmagomedov you need to know. Dagestani fighters are like real-life X-Men; they all have their own superpowers. All of them were shooting double legs before they could crawl, but each one has their own stand-up specialty. Umar’s is his lead leg, more specifically, the question mark kick. This guy throws lead leg question mark kicks like jabs and uses kicks almost exclusively to control fights on the feet. Umar is the bantamweight boogeyman, the guy nobody wants to fight. Sources? Well, they had to bring in a guy from outside the UFC to make his debut against Umar. Bekzat Almakhan is making his debut against a future title challenger/champion, and this matchup reminds me of when Arman Tsarukyan debuted against Islam Makhachev. I knew that day that those two would meet again for the title someday, and I got the same vibes with this matchup.   

“Harold &” Umar Nurmagomedov is a human Catch-22. If you stay out at range with him on the feet, he’ll kick you in the face, and if you force your way inside, he’ll double-leg you and eventually choke you out. It all starts with the question mark kick. It is a low-round kick feint that turns into a high kick in the same motion. You have no idea if Umar is going low or going high. You’re only option is to defend high every time and give up targets to the body and leg. Fighting Umar is like a Choose Your Own Adventure book. To get a shin upside your head, turn to page twenty-one. To get taken down and submitted violently, turn to page fifty-two. They call it a question mark kick because it makes you question wtf just hit you. Makes you question your very existence. I’ve never seen leg/hip dexterity like Umar’s; he can close distance with his lead leg like elite strikers do with a jab. Umar is a right-handed southpaw; his right hand and leg are his main weapon from whichever stance he fights out of. 

And just when you think you got a read on his stand-up, Umar level changes like Raiden teleports and can dominate from the top position. Umar is THE dark horse of the entire promotion. The only reason he isn’t in the title picture right now is because no one will fight him. Even Cory Sandhagen dropped a main event scrap against Umar last year. Umar is 16-0 for his career with two TKO/KOs and seven subs and averages nearly five SLpM. But this will probably be Umar’s toughest fight to date inside the Octagon.  

The UFC Performance Institute has secretly been funding Biolabs in Antarctica that have been genetically modifying, aka performing gain of function research, on fighters in an attempt to create a more virulent fighter good enough to challenge Umar. They might fook around and create an epidemic of killers. In steps Bekzat Almakhan. This guy right here looks like an AI-generated Petr Yan. Why not just give Umar the real Petr Yan? Will the real Petr Yan please stand up? Bekzat looks like Petr Yan at the beginning of career mode when he still works at a car manufacturing plant and rap battles on his breaks. Bekzat looks like flashback Petr Yan. And you know what? He looks like Umar, too! This guy is an eerie amalgamation of Umar and Petr Yan. This fight is like the real-life Face Off. 

Bekzat and Umar are so similar in skill level and style (minus the question mark kick) that they might cancel each other out like opposite wave lines. You’ll just be watching a referee jumping around in the Octagon by himself. Fook it! This should be the main event. Bekzat is technically sound on his feet and has dominant wrestling/grappling. This guy is vacuum-sealed; no leaks. There are no holes in his game. He’s a solid Madden eighty-five across the board. His hands are tight like jar lids, and he has well-honed reactions under fire. I haven’t seen much of Bekzat, but he has extensive experience in two Middle Eastern promotions, UAE Warriors and Brave FC, that would probably put Bellator and the PFL to shame. These are the promotions responsible for the influx of Russian/Middle Eastern fighters that are beginning to dominate the sport. 

The only thing Bekzat seems to be missing is a special move, a Fatality. Umar has the question mark kick, but Bekzat doesn’t have a specific fight-ending/changing technique. He’s just an all-around well-crafted killer. There’s a solid chance we will see these guys fight again in the future, as we will see Tsarukyan and Makhachev fight again after they first met five years ago. Bekzat is 14-1 with twelve TKO/KOs and one sub, and you don’t want to meet the MF who beat this guy. It might be Bekzat’s dad. He had to whoop Bekzat’s ass when he was in grade school just so he could say he wasn’t ducking Bekzat. There are no striking/grappling stats for Bekzat, but he’s more of a moderate-output striker.   

The odds are wild. Umar is the (-1050) favorite, and Bekzat is the (+750) dog. I think this fight will be far more competitive than the odds suggest. Umar has a massive experience advantage and should be heavily favored, but they wouldn’t let some chump make their debut against a guy like Umar unless he was the real deal. This will be a solid test for Umar, more so than he has been tested in the Octagon before. But I gotta ride with the future champ and hope for an Umar main event somewhere down the road. Umar Nurmagomedov via decision. On wax. 

Props 

Umar: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+140) Dec (+120)  

Almakhan: TKO/KO (+1800) Sub (+4500) Dec (+1400) 

Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov | Method: Decision

Tyson Pedro (+260) vs. Vitor Petrino (-325)

Pedro: DK: $7.2k | Petrino: DK:$9k

First off, I have no idea what’s going on with this card. Since I started scouting for these scraps, three have fallen through, and we are now only left with ten fights. The order of the fights has been mixed up several times, and this one is tentatively scheduled as the official co-main event. This one should be a short and sweet banger, not likely to go past the first round. Why? Eleven of Tyson Pedro’s fourteen career fights ended in the first round, and Vitor Petrino has four career first-round finishes. This is Aquaman vs. The Rock. This shit should be the WrestleMania main event. Don’t look down to ash the doobie because this one might be over by the time you look back up.   

What came first, the Tyson or the Pedro? Sometimes Pedro Tyson shows up on fight night which is just Travis Browne with fewer tattoos. Tyson Pedro is the Benjamin Button of MMA; every round he grows less and less dangerous. He’s like the Manning brothers. In the first round, he’s Peyton. In the second, he’s Eli, still good, and can knock you out/fuck around and win two Super Bowls. And in the third, he’s the Manning brother who plays Madden in the basement. He’s an Ace of Base one-round wonder. And if you look at his wins... he’s got dubbs against Manny, Moe, and Jack. Moe, Larry, and Curly. My man is out here fighting hobos like Homer Simpson. Early in his career, he had some nice wins (Tong Po, aka Khalil Rountree), but he hasn’t beaten a legit fighter since 2017 when he beat Paul Cregg (Craig). His biggest dub in the last seven years came against Harry Hunsucker.   

Lest I digress (I love saying that). Tyson Pedro is built like Jason Momoa and has a trident for a jab. His rear leg snap kicks cause internal bleeding and ass seepage. And he’s got that one-punch right hand stashed in the trunk. Don’t make Tyson Pedro Pop the Trunk. Overall, Pedro has solid individual weapons on the feet, but he doesn’t put them together well. He’s lacking the elite striker cadence/flow. It looks like he’s hitting pads when he’s out there. But you can’t argue with his finishing rate. Pedro is 10-4 with five TKO/KOs and five subs. He only wins by finish. Tyson is coming in off a dub against Anton Turkalj and has won three of his last four, but he lost to Modestas Bukauskas, the only decent fighter he has fought since 2018 when he lost to Shogun. 

Vitor Petrino is built like The Rock. He might fook around and Rock Bottom Pedro Tyson. Cue “Rock Bottom” by Slim Shady. Rock bottom / I’ve got problems / Now everybody on my block’s got ‘em. Vitor is a problem, and he fights like a guy trying to climb out from rock bottom. He’s hungry like his ribs are touching. His style on the feet is like if you ordered Ciryl Gane from China. He has a nifty in/out movement and closes the distance behind a massive right hand. In addition to a fight-ending right hand, he has a homemade Alex Pereira left hook, and he is especially dangerous using it as a counter check-hook. The glove touch is a significant strike for this guy. Most people wouldn’t make it back to their corner after.   

On the mat, this guy is all power. He’ll pick you up and carry you across the Octagon like a new bride across the threshold, then slam you through a table. But he spends all his energy on the takedown. His top control is like a human comforter. Once he gets you down, he’ll just hold you down like your Pops used to do to you when you were a kid. But Petrino’s major malfunction is his gas tank. He needs pitstops like NASCAR in the middle of rounds. He has to stop and recharge between strikes. Petrino’s path to victory will be taking Pedro down and grinding him out on the mat. Can he stand and bang with Pedro and walk away from the wreckage like Will and Martin in Bad Boys? Yeah, he can, but he could just as easily get KO’d in the process.    

Petrino is 10-0 with seven TKO/KOs and one sub. Both fighters average three SLpM, but Petrino also averages over four takedowns per fifteen minutes, while Tyson Pedro rocks a fifty-two percent takedown defense. That there lies the trouble for Tyson Pedro. Petrino is the (-300) favorite, and Pedro is the (+235) live dog. If Pedro can stay on his feet for five minutes. He can knock out Vitor Petrino. Petrino is far from a defensive fighter on the feet and has had some scary moments in his short UFC career. If Pedro does pull it off, we need a Tong Po vs. Tyson Pedro 2 main event. Call me Sean Shelby, the matchmaker. But I don’t see Pedro staying on his feet. And by the second round, Tyson will be Pedro. Vitor Petrino via TKO, round two. Put that ish on wax. 

 Props 

Pedro: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+1000) Dec (+800)  

Petrino: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+350) Dec (+250) 

Winner: Vitor Petrino | Method: TKO Rd.2

Muhammad Mokaev (-325) vs. Alex Perez (+275)

Mokaev: DK: $9.1k | Perez: DK: $7.1k

Yo, DM me if you find a prop bet for Alex Perez dropping out before fight night. I won’t believe this fight is happening until he makes it up the final step into the Octagon. Perez has become a deadbeat fighter. He doesn’t show up. He has three and a half minutes of Octagon time since 2020. He rolled away one day, and he never came home. This guy stands you up at the altar. Fook cold feet. Perez gets frostbitten feet. I thought Alex Perez retired after he dropped a fight against Manel Kape last year, but here we are. If the pre-2020 Alex Perez shows up on Saturday night, we will finally see if Muhammad Mokaev is for real. To me, Mokaev’s style is like dying in my sleep... you already know. Mokaev has had impressive moments, but he has also had some equally mid-moments. If Alex Perez shows up, he has the wrestling to make this a fight and not just a Mokaev grappling showcase.   

When talking about Alex Perez, you have to start: Once upon a time... Once upon a time, Alex Perez fought for the flyweight title against Deiveson Figueiredo. He also stopped Jussier Formiga in the first round with leg kicks. Formiga was the first man to beat Figueiredo. On the feet, Perez is a wrestler striker with nasty calf kicks. He can stand and trade in the pocket and earn anyone’s respect, but his main gig is as a wrestler, dominating the top position and hunting necks like Mossy Oak and elk urine. But his major malfunction is that he wrestles but can’t grapple. Once he gets you down, he grapples like he has Merton Hank’s neck and leaves it exposed. Perez was choked out in under two minutes in each of his last two bouts. Alexandre Pantoja was the last to choke him in 2022.   

Perez’s path to victory will be old-fashioned sprawl-and-brawl. He’s a pocket striker that you have to evict to get out of there. It will be tricky getting within range to unload combos against a guy with an Encyclopedia of takedowns like Mokaev, but he will have to risk the takedown to create damage. Getting back to his feet and not exposing his neck will be more important than defending takedowns. Also, he has to attack Mokaev’s legs early and hope to hobble him to make level-changing difficult. Perez is 24-7 with five TKO/KOs and seven subs. He averages over four and a half SLpM to Mokaev’s...  one. Singular. No plural. One strike landed per minute. But Mokaev averages six and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes to Perez’s just under three.   

Muhammad Mokaev is a dominant wrestler/grappler. He’s like a flyweight “Thug Nastied” Bryce Mitchell. When Mokaev gets hold of you, he treats you like airport luggage. He treats you like the package in the opening scene of Ace Ventura. Please Handle With Care. This guy picks you up and throws you like your pops used to throw you on the couch. When he level changes, he looks like the girl in The Ring crawling out of the well, and when he’s on top, he puts more pressure on you than Lizzo’s shoes. His top pressure is heavier than guilt. His major malfunction in his wrestling/grappling is that he tends to leave his neck exposed when his initial shot is stuffed. He is highly susceptible to guillotines, which are Perez’s specialty.   

Mokaev's stand-up is more like sit-down. He’s not a good striker. He landed a flying knee that led to a fifty-second submission over Cody Durden in his debut, but that’s as dangerous as his striking gets. Mokaev has to rely on wild Hail Mary techniques to create damage or chaos on the feet and avenues for takedowns. If Perez can find a way to force long stretches on the feet, he will dominate the stand-up. Mokaev has to get the fight to the mat and keep it there. He tends to slowly grind you out early and finish you late. His last three fights all ended in third-round submissions.   

Mokaev is the (-310) favorite, and Perez is the (+250) dog. I think there is a ton of value for Perez. He’s had two years to learn how to protect his neck. If he can avoid an early submission, he can force scrambles and steal rounds on the feet. Last week, we saw the judges award damage over takedowns and top control. That is slowly becoming the trend. Mokaev tends to salt away the clock for two rounds before finding late subs. Perez can make up for time spent on his back by creating damage with low kicks and landing the bigger punches. But I don’t trust any aspect of Alex Perez. Muhammad Mokaev via arm-triangle, round two. On wax. 

Props 

Mokaev: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+150) Dec (+150)   

Perez: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+1200) Dec (+600) 

Winner: Muhammad Mokaev | Method: Arm-Triangle Rd.2

Matt Schnell (+280) vs. Steve Erceg (-350)

Schnell: DK: $7k | Erceg: DK:$9.2k

This will be an ADHD manic little banger. You might remember Matt Schnell from when he was legally pronounced dead in the Octagon before he rose up like the Undertaker and came back to submit Su Mudaerji. Schnell died one thousand deaths. He experienced the collective suffering of the world’s past population in the second round against Mudaerji. Yep, it was an Easter comeback. Matt Schnell went home and framed the death certificate. Since he no longer exists, Matt Schnell has a possible bright future as a US government Splinter Cell after his fight career. You might remember Steve Erceg as one of the Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers of the year last year. This kid debuted on short notice against David Dvorak and walked away with the upset decision dub. Both these guys have crispy striking and slick grappling, and if this one doesn’t end up on the main card, it should be.   

You also might remember Steve Erceg as looking like a Woodstock ‘99 Aaron Rodgers/David Schwimmer love child conceived during Jewel’s set. He’s literally Destiny’s Child. But in the cage, he looks like a Mickey Knox Natural Born Killer. This guy is slick like a duck’s ass anywhere the fight goes. He has nifty footwork and slips/rolls on the feet with shifty stance switches. And he can seamlessly transition to wrestling and initiating takedowns. On the mat, Erceg forces scrambles from the top and bottom while constantly hunting for necks. Erceg is 11-1 with one TKO/KO and six subs, all by choke. Both fighters average just under four and a half SLpM, but Erceg also averages two takedowns per fifteen minutes.   

Matt Schnell rolled into his last bout looking like a high school chemistry teacher who wears yellow hazmat suits on the weekends. He had to go straight basic training and shave his head to make weight. Then he got KO’d in the second round by Matheus Nicolau. That’s the story of Schnell’s career, just good enough to get KO’d by the best fighters in the division. Schnell debuted against Rob Font and fought the last two flyweight Champs, Pantoja and Moreno. He also has a loss to Brandon Royval. This guy's strength of schedule is tougher than your favorite fighter’s. Matt Schnell is a perennial UFC Apocalypto sacrifice. But that’s not a pejorative. You have to be pretty damn good yourself to be able to even step in a cage with those guys. Schnell has crispy kickboxing and that Brian Ortega dog in him. If Schnell can keep the fight standing, this will be a complete toss-up on the feet.  

But the question will be Schnell’s ground game. Schnell rocks a forty-six percent takedown defense like hand-me-down duds. But Schnell does have noine career submissions, including six subs from his guard and four triangles. The problem is Schnell spends too much time in guard and not enough time getting back to his feet. The key for Schnell will be using submission attempts to get back to his feet and forcing stand-up exchanges.   

Erceg will be the heavy (-335) favorite, and Schnell will be the (+255) dog. I’m not sure what to expect from Matt Schnell. Lately, he has become chinny like Jay Leno. He’s rocking that “You break it, you buy it” chin. They display Schnell’s chin at the Antique Road Show. Schnell is a veteran of several wars, and it’s starting to show when he gets hit. Fantasy-wise, without a finish (likely a submission), you’re looking at forty to fifty significant strikes landed if the fight stays on the feet and goes the distance. That’s a lot of things that need to go right. Erceg has less mileage and has already faced top-ten talent in Dvorak. I think he’ll have enough takedowns to eke out close rounds. Steven Rodgers, aka Steve Schwimmer, via decision. Wax on, wax off.   

Props 

Erceg: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+1100) Dec (+600)  

Schnell: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+1100) Dec (+600) 

Winner: Steve Erceg | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Claudio Ribeiro ($7.3k): The Value Menu is looking kind of janky this week, homies. There are three all-or-nothing finishers: Rozenstruik, Tyson Pedro, and Claudio Ribeiro. Ribeiro is 11-4 with a one hundred percent finishing rate, including eleven TKO/KOs. The bad news is he’s 1-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming via KO. He was most recently KO’d by Roman Kopylov, aka Chase Hooper Sr. Ribeiro will be up against the mall Karate black belt Christian Duncan. Duncan is Rex Kwon Do’s pride student, and he comes out throwing all kinds of spinning shit. His movement is a Capoeira/breakdancing hybrid; it looks like he’s about to bust out a head spin at any moment. Duncan is 2-1 in the UFC, but none of his wins have been especially impressive given the competition, and he has a lot of red flags on his feet. If Ribeiro comes out aggressive, I give him a puncher’s chance to knock anyone out. He’ll be at an overall technical and speed disadvantage, but he has the one-punch KO power that Duncan lacks.   

Tyson Pedro ($7.2k): This guy has the best upside. Vitor Petrino will no doubt try to get the fight to the mat, but he’ll have to stand and trade for a little while to set up his entries. Tyson Pedro only needs a couple exchanges to put Petrino’s lights out. If the fight stays standing, this will be a 50/50 toss-up and come down to who lands a bomb first. Tyson’s chances of scoring a finish drop drastically as soon as the second round begins, but Petrino is far from a Merab cardio monster, too. But Pedro rocks a fifty-two percent takedown defense. I once got fifty-two percent on a chemistry quiz, and it came back with a giant red F stamped on the top. That there lies the pitfall for Tyson Pedro. He can turn into Pedro Tyson at any moment. But at this salary price, Pedro has a ton of value as a career one hundred percent finisher with five TKO/KOs and five subs.   

Matt Schnell ($7k): Matt Schnell is a Back Draft firefighter. This guy will run into a firefight without wearing turnout gear. Inhalation? Fook that! Matt Schnell wants all the smoke. Schnell averages just under four and a half SLpM and will likely hover around the sixty significant strikes range if he can stay on his feet or force scrambles when he ends up on the Matt. But don’t sleep on Schnell's submission game. He has noine career subs, including seven from his guard with four triangle chokes. His red flag is that he tends to spend too much time on his back hunting for subs instead of forcing the action back to his feet. Stand-up-wise, this fight will be another 50/50 toss-up. Schnell has Original Recipe crispy kickboxing, and his Octagon experience dwarfs Steve Erceg’s. A two-prong threat for $7k is a steal.   

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Bekzat Almakhan (6.5k): The fact that this guy is debuting against a future Champion is all you need to know about him. Almakhan is a massive dog in this one, but win or lose, he will be a name in the bantamweight division. This has Tsarukyan vs. Makhachev feels when Tsarukyan debuted against Makhachev because no one wanted to fight Makhachev. I knew that day that they would meet again and likely for a title. Bekzat has elite skills and will cause Umar some problems, and this fight will be far more competitive than the odds suggest. I don’t know much about Almakhan’s ground game from his back, which will likely be tested early and often. On the feet, Almakhan reminds me of Petr Yan and Umar himself. He’s technically sound and has a slick offensive wrestling game of his own. This fight should be the main event. And for having a Consume-Within-24-Hours clearance sticker slapped on him, Almakhan can score some moderate striking and top control stats in what should be a back-and-forth little banger.  

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Tyson Pedro (+260): The dog pound is filled to capacity this week, and there are some mangy-ass mutts amongst the lot. It's definitely a Motley Crue this week of heavy-heavy dogs. Tyson Pedro is one with value beyond laying a Jackson down and praying. Even though he lost almost every fight he had against high-level competition, he still has a vast experience advantage against Vitor Petrino. He also only wins by finish, and every exchange on the feet will be a coin flip. Petrino has had some shaky moments early in his career and can get got on his feet.   

Bekzat Almakhan (+750): Okay, this is more of a lay-and-pray bet. But this line is wild. I don’t think Bekzat will beat Umar, but I think it will be close enough to drop a little Hammy, a little Alex Hamilton on him. Barring injuries, I think there will come a day when it will seem absurd that Bekzat was ever a (+750) dog. He’s an amalgamation of Petr Yan, Umar, and Damir Ismagulov, a three-headed monster. If nothing else, keep your eye on this guy for future bets; he’s a sleeper lying in wait.   

Pick ‘Em 

Eryk Anders (-500) vs. Jamie Pickett (+375) 

Winner: Eryk Anders 

Method: Decision 

Ludovit Klein (-800) vs. A.J. Cunningham (+550) 

Winner: Ludovit Klein 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Aiemann Zahabi (+550) vs. Javid Basharat (-850) 

Winner: Javid Basharat 

Method: Decision 

Christian Duncan (-350) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (+275) 

Winner: Christian Duncan 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Vinicius de Oliveira ( ) vs. Bernardo Sopai ( ) 

Winner: Vinicius de Oliveira  

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Abdul Al-Selwady (-180) vs. Loik Radzhabov (+150) 

Winner: Abdul Al-Selwady 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1