Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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The New York City skyline is quickly growing smaller in the rearview. It’s now a miniature city encapsulated in a globe, waiting for a giant to come along and shake it, signaling a change of seasons. Biggie bellows through the blown-out speakers that he’s going, going back, back to Cali, Cali. And the California Raisins six-piece bobblehead ensemble mounted on the dash, headbangs and adds its own improvised flavor to the west coast synthy beat.

For a moment, I swear I can feel the wind in the hair I lost over a decade ago; I no longer feel the late fall chill chapping the bare stray dog urine spot on the back of my head. Mary digs it. Her green eyes are admiring me from the passenger seat. It’s a wonder she seems to never age. The setting sun’s final rays catch her at the perfect angle, setting her silhouette afire; she sparkles with the intensity of a thousand diamonds as if cloaked in tiny jewels.

I think back to the events of last night and the magic that ensued. We have new champions. Weili Zhang proved me prophetic and became a two-time champ with relative ease. The fight to make for her first title defense is with Amanda Lemos. That has the makings of one of the best women’s title fights of all time.

In an eerie similarity to their second meeting, the Predator faced certain defeat but pulled it out in the bottom of the ninth with a walk-off moon shot. It’s rare, but the better fighter rarely loses three fights to the same opponent. It’s clear Adesanya is the better fighter, but he now drops to 0-3 against Pereira even though he dominated the majority of all three scraps. A fourth meeting is the only fight to make. This matchup has the makings of competing with the Fast And Furious franchise for sequels.

The Octagon was left with more holes than Gettysburg in 1863 after the first five minutes between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler. The carrion will gorge on the carcasses of the innocent bystanders caught up in the bombardment until they keel over and become part of the feast themselves. The plot twists came rapid-fire like a House Of Cards season finale until The McGregor Killer finished the fight in the third round by, of all things, submission.

I now turn my attention to what’s in front of me. I have to use the windshield wipers to clear away an assortment of fast food wrappers and venti Starbucks cups. And I have to swerve this way and that for a quarter mile to dislodge a pair of construction cones from the front wheel wells, but my path is clear. Ahead lies a fabled tortoise vs. tortoise matchup that’ll leave one on its back in the middle of a Nevada highway, its exposed belly suffering third-degree sunburns. Next up, the heavyweights: Sergey Spivak vs. Derrick Lewis.

Main Card

Sergey Spivak (-195) vs. Derrick Lewis (+155)

Spivak: DK: $9.2k | Lewis: DK:$7k

Sloth from Goonies is back and facing the perennial underdog legend Derrick Lewis. This is the type of scrap that x16 fast-forward was created for. Derrick Lewis is the UFC’s most prolific KO Bansky, and Sergey Spivak is a giant galoot with more ways to spell his name than Alexy Oleynik. The rare heavyweight grappler vs. striker matchup, this fight is all but guaranteed to end before the final bell, either by a vintage Derrick Lewis vaporizing KO or a Seghei Spivak old-school ground and pounding. Ground and pounding? Sir, this is a family establishment.

Derrick Lewis needs no introduction, and if he does, you’re probably here because you have a Weekly KO Groupon for a free newsletter and likely have no idea what MMA stands for. But, welcome, nonetheless. No one in UFC history has more KO’s than Derrick Lewis. He’s not a boxer; he’s a puncher. He’s not a fighter; he’s a brawler. Twenty-two of his twenty-six career dubs ended with his opponent hooked up to a sleep apnea machine and a Breathe Right nose strip. “The Black Beast” is the UFC’s Freddy Kreuger, putting opponents to sleep and then KO’ing them again in their dreams. If you ever get lucky enough to KO Derrick Lewis in a dream, you better wake up and apologize.

Lewis’ style mirrors U.S. foreign policy, nothing but bombs. He has exceptional hand speed for a huge man that seems even faster because everything else moves in slow motion; he shambles forward like a zombie, a Night Of The Living Dead Zombie, not a 28 Days Later zombie, and unloads heavy, wide bombs that arc across the sky like comets. His game plan for every fight he’s ever been in is to keep the fight standing and swing for the fences. What he lacks in tactical prowess, Lewis more than makes up for with chloroform KO power.

The underrated part of Lewis’ game isn’t his takedown defense but his ability to get back to his feet. Well, at least until he gets tired. Lewis skips all the fundamentals, not exposing your back and such, and just stands back to his feet like he’s squatting a massive man draped over the top of him. But he only has a limited number of get-ups in his tank before he becomes a beached mammal, requiring harpoon nets and bulldozers for removal. This is the main reason why Derrick Lewis will be starring in a familiar role against Sergei Spivak, the mangy, rabid underdog dripping value all over your freshly Swiffer’d floor. The value for Lewis is and always will be a sudden end to any fight at any time, even if he hasn’t won a minute of the fight leading up to that point.

Sergey Spivak is kind of a sleeper in the heavyweight division. There’s nothing flashy about him; he’s far from explosive, fast, agile, or athletic, but if you allow him to get too close and get a hand on you, an ass whooping is sure to ensue. On the feet Spivak has decent boxing, including a stiff jab and a fight-ending right hand, but he has AOL dial-up hand speed, like when you’d call the homie, and his line would be busy while he plays StarCraft for six hours. Defensively, Spivak doesn’t use any evasive maneuvers and is stiff and really only uses his stand-up to close the distance and score takedowns.

Spivak has a variety of takedowns, from traditional double legs, to trips and sneaky little hip tosses in the clinch. Once he’s on top, it’s like waking up with sleep paralysis, and no matter what you do, you can’t get up. He’s heavy, and not just because of his weight; Spivak knows how to leverage his weight and make the opponent carry the bulk of it, wearing them down in the process. Sergey uses a mixture of position control and intermittent ground and pound and can finish the fight with strikes and with subs.

For his career, Spivak is 15-3 with seven career TKO/KO’s and six subs. He's a finisher and averages just over three and a half significant strikes landed per minute, with a high of seventy-three in a three-round fight. He also averages four takedowns per fifteen minutes, and his value will be in a mid to late-fight finish.

Spivak will be the (-200) favorite, while Lewis will come in as the (+160) dog. I’ve traveled around the world on G5 jets and stayed in the world’s most luxurious hotels betting on Lewis as an underdog. He’s one of the most valuable dogs of all time. Even when he’s catching a complete ass whooping, he can pull out a Leon Edwards walk-off. Lewis’ only means of victory is a TKO/KO finish, and that outcome will return (+165) odds. Spivak’s means to victory will also be a finish, but the gamble is whether he finishes it by sub or TKO/KO; a submission will return (+325) and a TKO/KO (+145). Spivak has been KO’d twice in his career, and while Lewis has only been submitted once, he has been KO’d seven times.

The main event L-streak ended last weekend when Alex Pereira pulled off his own Leon Edwards walk-off, and Steve Irwin wrestled a dub from the jaws of defeat. Here’s to streaking once again: Sergey Spivak via TKO, round three.

Winner: Sergey Spivak | Method: TKO Rd.3

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-175) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+146)

Nzechukwu: DK: $8.8k | Cutelaba: DK: $7.4k

This matchup is the Slender Man vs. a Toyota Frontrunner. Kennedy Nzechukwu is one of the longest fighters on the planet; he’s longer than a Weekly KO newsletter, longer than a DMV line, longer than the Titanic movie, longer than The Count Of Monte Cristo, and he’s a rare fighter who uses every inch of his long frame. Ion Cutelaba needs no introduction. Ion will run over anybody as long as they don’t put up any kind of fight. But as soon as they do, he wilts and gets to tapping the canvas. In many ways, this will be a grappler vs. striker matchup. Even though Cutelaba throws bombs on the feet, he mostly implements a heavy wrestling game plan, and Nzechukwu likes to stand clear across the Octagon and punch you in the face until you drop.

Kennedy Nzechukwu is built like Tiny from House Of 1000 Corpses with an eighty-three-inch reach and is twice as dangerous. He lurches around the Octagon, engaging from the high ground, always staying within a range where he can hit you, and you can’t hit him. Speaking of Kennedy, he has a sniper right hand that will ensure you won’t get the deposit back on the rental car. He sets up that right hand with a Go-Go-Gadget jab that he keeps set on repeat, and his means of ending the fight is usually with volume and accumulated damage. He doesn’t have one-punch KO power but rather Caster Troy’s (takes your face off) from the outside with short two-punch peppering shots.

The key for Kennedy will be his eighty-one percent takedown defense and keeping the fight standing. He has the straightest punches you’ll see, which add to the effectiveness of his reach and ability to stay outside of the opponent’s shooting range, forcing them to level change from a dangerous distance. His biggest red flag is his High Pitch Eric fight IQ. He makes curious decisions in the Octagon, like Josh Allen, when the game’s on the line. His biggest weapon against Cutelaba will laying heavy covering fire from the outside, making it hard for Cutelaba to gain ground and level change. But Kennedy has shown a lack of aggressiveness in long stretches that has allowed lesser opponents like Nicolae Negumereanu to hang around in fights they don’t belong in.

Nzechukwu’s value will be in a mid to late-round finish. Cutelaba comes out the gate like a bull on the streets of Pamplona, Spain, and usually fades late. Kennedy will have to survive the early storm and defend takedowns in the first round and take over with volume late. For his career, Kennedy is 10-3 with seven TKO/KO’s and has notable wins in the UFC over Carlos Ulberg (second-round TKO) and the Jiu-Jitsu specialist Danilo Marques.

Ion Cutelaba is the guy who paints himself green and looks like the Jolly Green Giant at weigh-ins. He only has one speed; go. Every Cutelaba fight is the exact same; he either comes out and takes down the opponent and overwhelms them with vicious Donkey Kong ground and pound, or he scores the takedown, gets immediately reversed, and submitted without much of a fight. As good as Cutelaba is from the top position, he’s a victim from the bottom. On the feet, Cutelaba has heavy hands and more one-punch power than Kennedy, but he lacks tactical fundamentals and is only built to throw bombs and close the distance.

Cutelaba’s numbers: His career record is 16-8 with twelve TKO/KO’s and two subs. Ion and Kennedy average an almost identical four and a half significant strikes landed per minute, but Cutelaba also averages over four and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. His value will be in a finish from the top or clocking top control and grinding out a decision. In thirteen career scraps, Ion hasn’t even sniffed one hundred significant strikes landed in a fight.

Nzechukwu is the (-175) favorite, and Cutelaba is the (+145) dog that will have a lot of early finish upside. An Nzechukwu TKO/KO will return (+110) and a Cutelaba TKO/KO (+235). Six of Cutelaba’s eight losses came by finish, and two of Nzechuwu’s three were finishes. Give me Kennedy Nzechuwu in a role reversal, a TKO in round two started by a right hand from the sixth floor of the book depository.

Winner: Kennedy Nzechukwu | Method: TKO Rd.2

Waldo Cortes Acosta (-220) vs. Chase Sherman (+175)

Waldo: DK: $9.1k | PC Principal: DK:$7.1k

Déjà-fookin-Vu. Weekly KO history was made two weeks ago when I picked “PC Principal” Chase Sherman to win a fight for the first time. Of course, that fight fell through on the day of, and Sherman’s opponent, Josh Parisian, just dropped the fight for a second time. Waldo Cortes Acosta, who fought just two weeks ago, will be stepping in on short notice, and the big question is, will Weekly KO history be made for a second time?

No, no, it won’t. Waldo Cortes Acosta via TKO, round two. I will say this for Chase Sherman; there is some middle/low-tier Fantasy value for him. He’s a high-output fighter who has landed over one hundred significant strikes four times in his UFC career. If this goes the distance, he will put up solid numbers, and could out-work Waldo to a decision.

Winner: Waldo Cortes Acosta | Method: TKO Rd.2

Andre Fialho (-110) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-110)

Fialho: DK: $7.9k | Salikhov: DK: $8.3k

Baby Sinclair is back after getting his ass whooped for talking back to his parents for all those years. Andre Fialho, aka Baby Sinclair, will be thrown to the wolves once again when he faces off with “The King of Kung Fu” Muslim Salikhov. This will be a crunchy little stand-up banger featuring conflicting styles. Fialho has the prototypical Brazilian Muay Thai style and reminds me of a Dollar General Shogun Rua with a Payless brand Alex Pereira left hook. And Salikhov is a funky striker with a karate base who throws spinning-ish at going-out-of-business rates. One of these guys will be the victim on the season finale of The First 48 after this one.

Andre Fialho is a Firestarter, a pyromaniac who loves instigating firefights and inhaling the fumes. He prefers to gamble in the cage, going all in on every exchange and letting the chips fall where they may. Fialho uses basic boxing with short combinations, and he has a nasty short left hook that usually initiates a fight-ending sequence. There are also some subtle wrinkles to his game; Fialho likes to feint and use decoy-peppering punches to draw out a response so he can pull-counter. His red flag is that his only defense is his Mt. Rushmore granite chin, which he likes to use to parry punches. But his chin didn’t hold up in his most recent bout against Jake Matthews. Fialho was left slumped over against the cage, looking like Sonny Corleone after taking one too many overhand rights to the face.

Most importantly, Fialho is a finisher; fourteen of his sixteen career dubs came by finish, including thirteen TKO/KO’s. He debuted on short notice against the Cirque Du Soleil savage Michel Pereira and went a hard three rounds. He rebounded with a huge upset win against Miguel Baeza and is 2-2 in the UFC with extensive experience in Bellator. Fialho isn’t a high-output striker, and his value will be in a finish as Muslim Salikhov is coming off the first TKO loss of his career.

This guy Muslim Salikhov throws spinning ish like a boxer uses a jab. The spinning attacks are really the crutch of his entire stand-up repertoire; he can spin quicker than the Dallas Cowboys can let down their fans. His spins come out of nowhere with no tell and he changes the attack from spin to spin. He’ll throw a spinning back kick to the body, then a spinning wheel kick to the head, and then a spinning backfist once you’re anticipating the kicks. It’s not just for show, they are fundamental strikes for Salikhov, and he’ll usually use them to open up the opponent’s guard so he can let loose with his hands.

You can also tell by Salikhov’s last name that he can wrestle, and he won’t hesitate to do so, but he prefers to stand and bang before resorting to wrestling. That being said, his easiest path to victory is on the mat and avoiding a firefight on the feet. For Salikhov, this will be a Choose Your Own Adventure book, where he can eenie meenie miney moe his path to a dub. Muslim is also a finisher, having finished fourteen of his eighteen career dubs, including twelve TKO/KO’s. Fialho is also coming off a vicious TKO loss, and Salikhov’s value will be in pushing that off switch again.

The odds are dead even (-110), a classic pick ‘em, and a TKO for Baby Sinclair will return (+150) and a TKO/KO for Salikhov (+210). I see one of those Salikhov spinning wheel kicks landing; Muslim Salikhov, TKO round three.

Winner: Muslim Salikhov  | Method: TKO Rd.3

Danny Roberts (+400) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-550)

Roberts: DK: $6.6k | JDM: DK:$9.6k

A kickboxer’s delight is on tap for this one. Jack Della Maddalena is a body snatcher with slick classic boxing, and he reminds me of the Notre Damme Fighting Irish logo if it were a real person. Danny Roberts is one of those fighters who have been around for a long time, but you’ve never seen fight. This will be Roberts’ thirteenth fight in the UFC after making his debut in 2015.

The cross beats the hook. The hook beats the uppercut. And the jab beats them all. The foundation of Jack Della Maddalena’s boxing is his jab. He uses the jab as a multifaceted tool from both stances, using it to measure distance and lead three to four punch combinations. Straight punches also beat wide punches, and Maddalena’s hands are tight and quick to the target. Maddalena’s special move is the step-back counter-power hand. From either stance, Jack will slide just outside of his opponent's strikes and counter with a power hand down the middle.

Where Jack will run into problems as he climbs the UFC ladder is with his lack of defensive skills. He has zero point zero head movement and doesn’t roll or step off at angles when he exits the pocket. He tends to rely on deflecting punches with his lead shoulder and doesn’t check leg kicks. If I were in Danny Roberts’ corner, the game plan would be to work from the bottom up, attacking Jack’s legs and working his way up.

Danny Roberts is the guy you didn’t know was at the party, and afterward you tell him all about how wild it was even though he gave you a ride there. He’s kind of forgettable and has a conveyor belt mass-produced style. His style is like buying a new crispy dress shirt and walking into the club, and fifty other dudes are wearing the same shirt. That’s not to say he isn’t dangerous or doesn’t have a chance to pull off the upset. Roberts has technical kickboxing and uses fundamental hand/kick combinations, and has sneaky power that could catch Della Maddalena slippin’. Also, Roberts won’t be shy about engaging with Jack in the pocket, where he’ll have his best chance of landing a fight-changing blow.

The problem for Roberts against Della Maddalena will be matching Della Maddalena’s pace. Jack is a high-output striker averaging over eight significant strikes landed per minute in three UFC bouts, compared to Roberts’ three strikes landed per minute. Roberts is a relatively slow starter, and he’ll have to change his approach this time around, or he’ll get slept quickly. In eighteen career wins, Danny Roberts has thirteen finishes, including eight TKO/KO’s and five submissions. His value will be in a shock-upset finish. His only means of victory will be scoring a finish; a fifteen-minute kickboxing match will favor the more intricate striker Jack Della Maddalena.

Jack will be the massive (-500) favorite, and there will be some serious value on Roberts at (+350). Again, Jack lacks defensive techniques and is susceptible to getting got during any exchange. A Della Madalena TKO/KO will return (-225), and the upset Roberts TKO/KO (+900). But I’m riding with Jack Della Maddalena via TKO, round two. On wax.

Winner: Jack Della Maddalena  | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Value Menu

Charles Johnson (-165) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+135)

Johnson: DK: $8.7k | Zhumagulov: DK: $7.5k

The prelims are looking super ugly for this card, a Black Friday long line of decisions featuring a list of fighters who aren’t known for finishes. I’ve settled on Charles Johnson vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov because of Zhumaglulov. Don’t look at his UFC record; he’s been handed a murderer’s row of opponents since entering the UFC and has been highly competitive with everyone. He even had Manel Kape hurt and was dominating the first round before he got caught and finished inside the first five minutes. He’s coming off a Valero robbery loss to another highly touted prospect, Jeff Molina, and you could argue that Zhumagulov could easily be 4-1 instead of 1-4 in the Octagon.

Zhalgas will be stepping in as the (+135) underdog and will be dripping with value Fantasy-wise and odds-wise. He throws short heavy hooks on the feet and consistently surprises opponents with his power. Check the last name. He’s an “ov,” so you already know he can wrestle. His opponent will be the former LFA champ Charles Johnson who’s making his second UFC appearance after going the distance against the highly-highly touted Muhammad Mokaev.

Johnson was dominated on the mat by top control but survived the submission game of Mokaev for fifteen minutes and was fairly tough to takedown. I think this one will have a good chance of staying standing if Johnson can defend one or two early takedowns. After that, I like the chances of one of these guys landing a fight-changing strike on the feet. Especially Zhalgas. A Zhumagulov TKO/KO will return (+1000), no typo. This is how you turn Hamiltons into Franklins on some David Copperfield type-ish. A TKO/KO for Johnson will return (+405) and is the only real value bet for Charles “In Charge” Johnson.

Vanessa Demopoulos (-105) vs. Maria Oliveira (-125)

Demopoulos: DK: $8k | Oliveira: DK: $8.2k

I’m looking at this scrap strictly from a Fantasy POV. I think this one will be a nip/tuck standing affair with decent significant strike numbers. After losing her first two UFC bouts, Maria Oliveira came out in her most recent bout with one-two’s set on repeat for fifteen minutes. It was clear she wasn’t going to lose a decision on account of getting out-worked. Oliveira stayed busy even in between rounds throwing hands at her cornermen just so she wouldn’t lose her edge. She landed noinety-six significant strikes and threw two hundred noinety-seven on her way to a split decision dub.

If Oliveira comes out with the same mindset, Vanessa Demopoulos, an average output striker usually landing around the sixty to seventy significant strikes in a three-round scrap, will have to match Oliveira’s pace or risk falling behind on the scorecards. One of these ladies could be a good option to fill out your lineup with a low-owned fighter with the potential to score decent stats on the feet.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleepers

Derrick Lewis (+155): You already know. Derrick Lewis may be the greatest Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleeper of all time. He's always on his Nas sh!t: "One punch. All I need is one punch, one punch." There could come a time when Serghei Spivak freezes up looking for an unkicked portion of Lewis's ass to kick after kicking the entirety of it for most of the fight. If that happens, the Toraja people will have a new corpse to dress up and break battle against Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Zhlagas Zhumagulov (+135): I just mentioned this guy. He's had a tough go in the UFC, but he's faced some serious killers and was competitive in all of them. He throws bombs and always catches opponents by surprise early on. Go watch the first round against Manel Kape; Zhalgas was boxing Kape's ears in before he got caught.

Jennifer Maia (+155): This lady has fought the highest level of competition, including five rounds against the Champ, Valentina Shevchenko. She'll be facing Maryna Moroz who has excellent Jitz with six career subs on her record, but Maia has excellent Jitz too, with five subs of her own. Maia also has four TKO/KO's to Moroz's one. This one could likely end up a stand-up fight for fifteen minutes, and I think Maia is the better striker.

Pick 'Em

Charles Johnson (-165) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+135)

Winner: Zhalgas Zhumagulov

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Jennifer Maia (+155) vs. Maryna Moroz (-190)

Winner: Maryna Moroz

 Method: Decision

Vince Morales (+130) vs. Miles Johns (-185)

Winner: Miles Johns

 Method: Decision

Ricky Turcios (-165) vs. Kevin Natividad (+135)

    Winner: Ricky Turcios

 Method: Decision

Vanessa Demopoulos (-105) vs. Maria Oliveira (-125)

    Winner: Vanessa Demopoulos

 Method: Decision

Brady Heistand (-168) vs. Fernie Garcia (+137)

    Winner: Brady Heistand

 Method: Decision

Natalia Silva (-170) vs. Tereza Bleda (+136)

    Winner: Natalia Silva

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning