Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Arman Tsarukyan (-550) vs. Dan Hooker (+410)

Tsarukyan: DK: $9.5k | Hooker: DK:$6.7k

If there was ever a UFC version of Dark Side of the Ring —Dark Side of the Octagon—the first episode should be about the main event that took place on June 27 in the year of the great toilet paper famine. Walk with me: It’s the summer of 2020, and the world’s currency has become paper products. Two rolls of Charmin Ultra quilted double-pleated toilet paper could buy beachfront property in La Jolla, CA. Overnight, the landscape of the billionaire class was turned upside down, the Soroses, Ellisons, Musks, Gates, and Theils of the world replaced by Toms, Dicks (short for Richard), Harrys, and Susies with gold Costco Memberships, their wealth derived from recent routine purchases of necessity, thirty packs of Kirkland brand toilet paper. At that time, you could fill up your gas tank for three squares of that shit. 

The have-nots quickly became the haves, while the rest of the world was left to fend for itself. But in the darkest times, human ingenuity shines brightest. People looked to the past to inspire the present, finding solutions in unlikely places like the 90s cult classic, Demolition Man. You already know: The three seashells. Risking arrest, people flocked to the beaches, sifting pans in hand like Forty-Niners during the Gold Rush, hoping to find these mythical sanitation tools. Every day became like 7-11's BYOC (Bring Your Own Cup Day) Day. Except it was Bring Your Own TP Day—everyone scrambled to find suitable substitutes. Shower curtains, towels, t-shirts, socks, car shammies; plumbing was backed up in every city across the country. Everywhere you went, carpets had brown streaks running across them like contrails in the sky from people dragging their asses across like dogs.  

That same year, Dan Hooker fought Dustin Poirier in the Apex Arena. Two fights stand out from that weird moment in time: Hooker vs. Poirier and Gaethje vs. Tony. They were intimately violent, every strike and grunt, the sound of blood spray hitting the mat, the shocked horror escaping the mouths of the very few in attendance as the participants beat on each other. The best version of Dan Hooker still haunts that arena. In combat sports, sometimes you only have one true “war” in you. That night was special. But that loss came with significant consequences, especially for Dan Hooker. He left pieces of himself in the cage, and he’ll never be quite whole again. He looked like Christian Bale in The Machinist, walking out of the Octagon after leaving behind several pounds of flesh. 

Hooker went on to lose three of his next four fights, two by TKO/KO. After the Arnold Allen TKO, Hooker’s career seemed Dead and Gone like T.I. and Justin Timberlake. Yo DJ! Hit that shit! But somewhere along the path of defeat, Hooker found himself, the essence of his early ass-kicking days. Don’t look meow, but Dan is riding a three-fight dub streak. A win over the guy most likely to be next in line for the Ilia Topuria would throw a wrench in the whole fookin’ division. Stepping into the cage after a dub against Mateusz Gamrot, Hooker will be facing another world-class grappler, and possibly the best grappler left in the division since Makhachev’s departure.  

Dan is still one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. And the more ink he gets, the better fighter he seems to become. Hooker is the dark horse for the P4P Undisputed Tat. After Sean Brady’s tat got its ass cracked last weekend, Hooker’s chest piece could find itself in a title eliminator with a dub against Tsarukyan. Hooker’s special weapon is the Carlos Prates Tiger Knee. He hides it behind short hand combinations and can target the head even when the opponent is standing upright. Hooker fires from chest level like shotguns in action movies. Most importantly, Hooker’s chest looks like Andy Dufresne’s cell from the heart beating inside. He beat Jalin Turner after breaking his arm early in the fight. Fook a broken arm; Hooker went on to beat Turner with his dead arm. They had to cut it off between rounds like Ronnie Lott’s finger, and he beat Turner with his phantom arm.   

But none of that matters if Hooker’s seventy-eight percent takedown defense doesn’t hold up. Because Arman Tsarukyan is known as the creator of a new experimental sound in the music industry: Trunk Muzik. Once Tsarukyan gets you to the mat, he treats you like a mafia hit, stuffing you inside a suitcase like a grotesque carry-on—like he’s stuffing you in the trunk of a Ford Tracer. That’s that Trunk Muzik. You can hear Arman’s trunk knocking from five blocks away. They write a Mexican Corrido as soon as this guy gets hold of you. Bust out the maracas, sombreros, and pointy boots. Tsarukyan will turn your ass into Coco with Dia De Los Muertos skeleton face decorations real quick. DJ! Hit that Ernesto De La Cruz “Remember Me!”   

Except people keep forgetting like Michael McDonald that Tsarukyan is the true number one contender. He was lined up to fight Makhachev in January before pulling out at the last minute. This guy is special on the mat. Tsarukyan likes his meat well done; he slow-cooks you on the mat like Abuela’s albondigas in the Betty Crocker crockpot. This MF will have you falling off the bone in ten minutes or less. He grapples his ass off. You’ll walk out of that bish looking like Sarah Jessica Parker on her way to yoga. You’ll walk around town looking like a Lego character. Choose Your Own Adventure: To get bludgeoned with elbows turn to page 56. To get choked like PJ Carlesimo at the hands of Latrell Sprewell, turn to page 82. 

But never forget when Joaquim Silva landed a left hook that had Tsarukyan in the passenger seat holding onto the “Oh, shit!” handles for dear life like that one friend is driving. He looked like those dweebs in the speed boat that get thrashed and thrown around, face-planting into the deck. Tsarukyan can get got on his feet. He’s all power and no finesse. Over-aggression is his only means of overcoming technical deficiencies. 

Daaaaaaaaaamn! – Smokey and Craig's voice. Tsarukyan is the (-510) favorite, and Hooker is the (+370) live-ish dog. Dan can win this fight. But he’ll likely have to come from behind. Hooker is the higher output striker, averaging five SLpM compared to Tsarukyan’s three and a half. But Tsarukyan averages three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. After what Makhachev did to JDM last week, it’s hard to pick a striker against an elite grappler. This fight could look very similar. But every round starts on the feet, and Hooker will have a chance for as long as he can keep it standing. The play for Tsarukyan is a mid-to-late finish. Hooker has been finished six times (three by TKO/KO and three by sub). The play for Hooker is a TKO/KO. He will have to finish the fight.   

I can’t buy a main event dub. I didn’t count on JDM showing up with that Meek Mill takedown defense. This week, I’m keeping it simple. I’m taking the dominant wrestler/grappler. Arman Tsarukyan via TKO, round four. Put that ish on wax.  

Props

Tsarukyan: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+330) Dec (+215)  

Hooker: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+2500) Dec (+1100) 

Winner: Arman Tsarukyan | Method: TKO Rd.4

Belal Muhammad (+220) vs. Ian Garry (-270)

Belal: DK: $7.4k | Garry: DK: $8.8k

Top three Gary’s dead or alive: Bababooey, Gary the snail, and Ian Machado-Prates-Gary. Carlos Prates beat the extra ‘r’ off Ian’s name and the lower back tat of his ankle in the fifth round of their main event in April. Gary even took on Prates’ name after the fight, a fight that Gary officially won. That’s the benefit of fighting in an Octagon as opposed to in the streets. Because there is no street in the world in which Gary would have been declared the winner after the beating he took in the closing minutes. But he’s still standing here screaming, “Fook the Free World!” He’ll give you a close-up of that lower back tat when he wraps his shin around your dome. He’ll tramp stamp your face real quick. No cap like the national anthem. He’llstamp you like reentries if you get to thinking shit is sweet.   

The WKO OG’s already know: Hit that 50 Cent “Many Men!” Many men, many, many, many men... Wish death upon Ian Garry. Love him or hate him, the underdog is on top. Who the fook can say they have dubs over Carlos Prates and MVP? Surviving, let alone beating, those guys, is like surviving a Saw and Hostel movie. There’s a statistically zero percent chance. But it's hard to forget the images of Garry crawling away from that Prates ass-whoopin'. He looked like Rick James crawling away from Charlie Murphy. He looked like every villain who falls to his death but miraculously survives and climbs back over the edge. It looked like Garry was reenacting the song “In the Air Tonight,” and he was drowning and reaching out to Prates for help, but Prates wouldn’t lend a hand. And years later, Garry saw Prates in the crowd at one of his fights. The hurt doesn’t show, but the pain still grows after that ass-whoopin'.   

Speaking of “In the Air Tonight,” Prates hammered out the drum solo... okay, okay; you get it. The key to beating Garry is making him fight on instinct, and not allowing him to fight from memory, reciting dozens of preprogrammed strikes for fifteen minutes. His special power is making fights boring. And that’s not a diss. You play to win the fight. The key for Garry against Belal will be his seventy-three percent takedown defense. More important than staying upright will be getting back to his feet. From range, he will pick Belal apart on the feet.  

Belal “Ya’ll Must’ve Forgotten the Name” Muhammad is back. You gotta admit that his fight with JDM was infinitely more exciting than Makhachev’s. With one innocent typo, Belal turns into Baal Muhammad. Even in defeat, Belal can turn that bish into a Balenciaga photo shoot. They have to bring in Father Merrin to exorcise the Octagon after Baal Muhammad fights. Until last night, Belal was the only man to defeat Sean Brady’s back tat. That Brady TKO aged like Salma Hayek. It aged like wine in a pharaoh’s tomb. Outside of Ian Garry, Belal is the most hated since Rip Van Wink. His shit stinks with every element from A to zinc. But I think people finally put some respek on Belal’s name after taking a Dillion Danis beating against JDM. That fight was 2-2 going into the fifth round. He came up short, but Belal went for it.    

Belal’s special weapon is pressure. He’s not the most athletic fighter, but he stays in your face. You’ll be shining like the Great Star of Africa after all the pressure Belal applies to you. If he gets hold of you, he grows on you like a skin tag. Even if you manage to scratch and pick him off, he grows right back. This guy’s wrestling/grappling is terminal. You'd better get your affairs in order before Belal drags you to the mat. Once he gets hold of you, you might as well quit your day job, shave your head, and start cooking meth in a Winnebago in the middle of the New Mexico desert and open a Soapy Joe's to wash the green from your hands. Belal locks his hands behind you and carries you around the cage like personal baggage in a relationship. It’s not you; it’s Belal. He’s just that good.   

I like (don’t love) Belal’s chances on the mat and hate his chances on the feet. Keeping Garry grounded without any video games or Pokémon cards for fifteen minutes won’t be easy. Especially if Belal is uncommitted to his wrestling early like he was against JDM. His striking is too short to mix it up for long stretches with Garry on the feet. That’s why Garry is the (-230) favorite, and Belal is the (+190) live dog. Never forget what Belal did to Leon. He ragged dolled him for five rounds. He can do that to Garry, too. The play for this one is a decision. Fantasy-wise, it will likely be a dud without a finish. Much of the clock will be eaten up in the clinch, against the cage, and on the mat. Damn, I love me some Belal Muhammad, but I see Garry out-pointing him from range. Ian Garry via decision. On wax.   

Props

Belal: TKO/KO (+1800) Sub (+1400) Dec (+300) 

Garry: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+1100) Dec (-120)

Winner: Ian Garry | Method: Decision

Volkan Oezdemir (-225) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+185)

Oezdemir: DK: $8.9k | Menifield: DK:$7.3k

This one will be an ugly striking affair. Ugly in a good way. Bust out the sleep apnea machines and the ear plugs because one of these guys is going to sleep and will make damn sure that no one else in that bish gets any rest. This is one of those matchups that you could swear you’ve seen before. Some Deja Vu type-ish. There’s no way their paths haven’t crossed before. But here we are: Krang’s body (Oezdemir) vs. Optimus Prime (Menifield). The way these guys throw hands, this one could be over before it starts. The bowl you left behind in the garage will still be cherry, a little sexy whisp of smoke seducing you to take another rip. They’re not going the distance; they’re not going for speed. One of these guys will be left all alone, all alone in his time of need.  

Volkan Oezdemir not only looks like Krang’s body but also looks like the NOLA King Cake Baby. They call him Lil Oezy Vert because he’s a trap. Oezy is built like a giant baby, but don’t let that fool you; he throws hands like fits and will put your ass in the corner for a timeout real quick. Oezdemir is one of the best pocket strikers in the heavier weight classes because he does all the small things. DJ! Hit that Blink-182 “All the Small Things!” He moves his head off the centerline with each punch and chokes up on his punches when other fighters tend to get wide, leaving themselves vulnerable during 50/50 exchanges. Oezy’s special move is the Water Buffalo Punch. It’s his version of the Roy Jones Jr. Gazelle Punch, a leaping lead hook that covers distance like a cross. It’s not advisable to lead with hooks, but Volkan gets away with it. He’ll leave you stiffer than that jaundiced Hanes t-shirt your mammy found that one time and scrubbed with a pumice stone but still couldn’t get the stain out.   

But Oezdemir is all stand-up and no ground game. He can ride you out like a mechanical bull from the top position, but from his back, he’s like a giant baby in the family room at the mall, propped up on the Koala Kare station with heels overhead. Sticking with the baby theme, he’s softer than baby poo on his back. He just smears all over the Octagon when he gets taken down. Oezdemir rocks an eighty percent takedown defense, which is excellent. But the problem is getting back to his feet when he does end up on his back.  

And if Alonzo Menifield is smart, he will look to relocate this fight and use the wrestling that he displayed early in his career. But that’s the problem with Zo: his fight IQ. My man has remedial fight IQ. Starve while locked inside a grocery store type of fight IQ. I’m talking about that Miss Universe Q&A fight IQ. Zo has all the physical attributes to be a problem in the division. But he just can’t be trusted like Kanye and his cousin left home alone. There are two different Alonzos: Alonzo from Training Day, and Alonzo from the '90s Miami Heat when he squared up with Larry Johnson, with Jeff Van Gundy clinging to his leg like a mistress when you try to walk out on her. Zo just finds ways to lose. Like he did against Carlos Ulberg, running across the ring at the opening bell and leaping right into a left hand and a twelve-second KO loss.   

It’s frustrating because this guy is built like Optimus Prime in his prime while drinking cancer-causing Prime energy drinks. Homie is built like pass rushers in the ‘90s. Menifield steps into the cage rocking that big LT energy. And we ain’t talkingLaDanian Tomlinson. I’m talking about number fifty-six for the New York Giants, who was geeked up on every snap. “Break a leg, Zo!” He’ll take that literally and break you off like Joe Theisman if he gets hold of you. But Zo’s wrestling gets stood up at the dance like Carrie. He looks for any excuse to abandon his wrestling in favor of throwing hands. Zo just walks past his wrestling like he doesn’t recognize it. He’d rather knock you out. Menifield will have a one-punch power advantage over Oezdemir, but Oezdemir is a much better technical combination striker.   

Oezdemir will be the (-230) favorite, and Menifield will be the (+190) live-ish dog. Zo can knock anybody out. Like Nas only needs one mic, one mic, Zo only needs one punch, one punch. He could also make this an ugly scrap, pressing Oezdemir against the cage and dragging him to the mat. But he won’t do that. He’ll stand and bang, and Oezdemir is just a better, more technical striker. Play these guys for a TKO/KO. There’s value in a decision, but I think one will get got. Volkan Oezdemir via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.  

Props

Oezdemir: TKO/KO (+120) Sub (+900) Dec (+300)

Menifield: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+1600) Dec (+450)

Winner: Volkan Oezdemir | Method: TKO Rd.3

Jack Hermansson (+200) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-245)

Hermansson: DK: $7.2k | Orolbai: DK: $9k

Brazilian Deebo, AKA Gregory Rodrigues, knocked Jack Hermansson down to the welterweight division. Deebo was the one throwing bricks that night. I told Jack not to ask for his bike back. That follow-up shot that Deebo landed was diabolical work. That was like hammerfisting (type of punch – not an explicit act) a corpse. The Deebo KO came just one fight removed from a two-year layoff after what Roman Dolidze did to him. Hermansson has been put through the MMA ringer in recent years. At middleweight, he fought everybody who was anybody. At one hundred seventy pounds, Jack will look like a sliver of soap that falls through the drain before you spring for a new bar. His first fight at welterweight won’t be easy. Because nothing about Myktybek Orolbai, not even spelling his name, is easy. 

This is an odd reference, but Jack Hermansson is built like the new Guillermo del Toro Frankenstein. He looks like he’s stitched together with body parts of fallen soldiers on a battlefield. And it took a bolt of lightning to bring him back to life after what Deebo did to him. But I digress. Jack is an annoying striker. When it comes to his stand-up, Jack marches off to war armed only with a single sheet of college-ruled Mead notebook paper. Jack covers your body with papercuts; you’ll bleed to death one drop at a time—a reverse IV. His ratio of foot versus hand strikes is so lopsided he might as well stand on his hands and punch with his feet. He’s like a freakshow main attraction. Jack attacks with his feet like a kangaroo. He peppers with kicks to the legs, inside and out, and salts away rounds with precise point fighting from the outside. 

But Jack’s ground game will have to be on point against Orolbai. Jack is a decent wrestler but a gifted grappler. Don’t sleep on his guard. He once submitted Kelvin Gastelum with a heel hook. Orolbai averages nearly six takedowns per fifteen minutes. The good news is that Jack defends at eighty percent. And that was at a higher weight class. If he can keep the fight standing and be the one who dictates when it goes to the mat, he can win this fight. He can out point Orolbai from the outside by creating a forcefield of peppering kicks and punches.  

Straight out the stone age, a crazy MF named Myktybek Orolbai. Your tongue will be placed on season ending IR just trying to pronounce this guy’s name. I had to have middle joint replacement surgery on four fingers after typing it. This guylooks like he just got off the swing shift at the Smithsonian Museum, standing in as the wax Neanderthal. What are you going to do to a guy who had to navigate around man-eating plants, fight velociraptors, and dodge pterodactyls just to take a shit? This guy rocks alligator loafers that are still alive. Orolbai only cage fights to stay in shape for T-Rex hunting season. He trains by tearing down shitty walls, “Cot damn Mongolians!”  

Orolbai’s style is like a cover band version of Merab’s. He plays all Merab’s greatest hits: Constant pressure, heavy pace, endless gas tank, perpetual motion, and a chin made from the meteorite that killed off Orolbai’s homies. On his feet, Orolbai combines a Tyrone Biggums cadence with hands like Thursdays at the school cafeteria, Sloppy Joes. He stays perpetually in awkward motion while serving up greasy little overhands and hooks. But his chain wrestling is the star of the show. You can defend one takedown, even two, but you won’t stop the third or fourth, and so on. Can’t stop, won’t stop. Orolbai’s wrestling is Bad Boy for life. Orolbai wins this fight by closing the distance and pushing the pace. He has to get inside Jack’s long limbs and not get stuck in no-man's land, where Jack can touch him with impunity.   

Orolbai will be the (-240) favorite, and Jack will be the (+200) live dog. I’d like to see the odds for Jack making weight. If he does, he can cause Orolbai all kinds of problems on the feet. He can hit Orolbai from a range where he won’t take any blowback. Orolbai will have to roll the dice every time he closes the distance. The play for this one is a decision. Orolbai grinds you down, and Jack frustrates you until the bell rings. I gotta ride with the guy who eats four-million-year-old T-Rex eggs and Stegosaurus bacon for breakfast every morning. Myktybek Orolbai via decision. On wax.   

Props

Hermansson: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+1300) Dec (+300)  

Orolbai: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+600) Dec (+150)

Winner: Myktybek Orolbai | Method: Decision

Alex Perez (+170) vs. Asu Almabayev (-205)

Perez: DK: $7.5k | Almabayev: DK: $8.7k

Never forget the time Alex Perez got carjacked by Tatsuro Taira. Homie had to get outfitted with LoJack after that fight. Perez was found on cinderblocks on a street in Tijuana after his family reported him stolen. But while we’re cruising Memory Lane, never forget the time Alex Perez fought Deiveson Figueiredo for the title. Yeah, he got choked out with the quickness, but Perez has a ceiling that high. He was more than holding his own when Taira did whatever the fook Taira did to Perez that night. I still have no idea what happened. Taira wrenched his back, and somehow Perez blew out his knee trying to stay upright. This will be his first fight back, and I can already tell you he’s a live-ass dog. And I haven’t even checked the odds yet.   

Perez is good. He starts firefights in the pocket every chance he gets. He comes out that bish looking like Freddy. Perez stays in the pocket like a Gold Digger. Yo! Hit that Kanye! When unleashing combinations, Perez changes arm angles mid-combination. He follows twelve-to-six Lizzy Borden chopping overhands with Tiger uppercuts and short hooks. Perez’s major malfunction is that he’s an excellent wrestler but just a mediocre grappler. He has that Merton Hanks neck—a neck like a giraffe. His neck is a guillotine’s moist dream. Gillies have posters of Perez’s neck hanging on their walls like ‘90s kids and boy bands. Perez has five submission losses, and three came by guillotine. If he can scramble back to his feet against Asu Almabayev—Asu will get him to the mat—he will dominate the striking. Asu will fade late with the pace Perez likes to push.  

But the Makhachev vs. JDM fight is in play. Asu can control the entire fight from the top position, like Islam did against JDM. This guy moves like a lava lamp on the mat. He doesn’t transition from position to position; he morphs. He's like the liquid form of the T-1000 on the mat—a drop of mercury on a steel table. This guy wraps you up like a cocoon from the top position. He’s a human spiderweb; you feel him clinging to you hours after the fight. Almabayev throws takedown combinations like hand combinations. He hits you with misdirections, making you think he’s going one way while his intentions are the opposite. Plans within plans. Like the Bene Geserit, Almabayev knows what he will do twenty seconds before he does it. 

What about his striking? See... what had happened was... It ain’t all that. He needs to complete some missions and add some hit points to his striking. Thetis held him by the wrists when she dipped him in the River Styx. He tends to over punches like Jim Carrey tends to over act. Manel Kape turned Asu into Al Pacino’s stunt double when Tony Montana gets blasted on the balcony and keeps talking shit the entire time. Asu can't afford to get stranded on his feet any more than the American people can afford fookin’ anything right meow. Homie will have to take out loans on his striking if he has to stand and trade with Perez for long stretches.  

Fantasy-wise, Asu is destined to be a bust. He averages only two SLpM compared to Perez’s four. Asu averages four and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, but I don’t see him holding Perez down for the better part of fifteen minutes. Yet, Almabayev is the (-200) favorite, and Perez is the (+170) live-ass dog. The big red flag for Perez is the knee injury. This is his first fight back after a nearly year-and-a-half layoff. Fighters coming off long layoffs have burned me countless times this year. But I’m a glutton for punishment. Pre-injury, I think Perez would have run away with this fight. Now I think he’ll have to make a comeback. Play this one for a decision. Give me the dog. Alex Perez via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Perez: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+1200) Dec (+380)  

Almabayev: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+350) Dec (+110)

Winner: Alex Perez | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Kyogi Horiguchi ($7.6k): This is Kyogi’s second stint in the UFC. He was on the roster from 2013 to 2016 and once fought one of the best fighters of all time, Demetrius Johnson. Horiguchi has been fighting for the Rizin promotion and Bellator and has gone 19-3 since leaving the UFC. He’s currently riding a five-fight winning streak (one no contest). Kyogi averaged eighty-three Fantasy points in eight UFC bouts. It’s been a while since I’ve seen Horiguchi fight, but he’s a well-rounded fighter who can take you to the mat or beat you on the feet. He will be fighting the Dagestani weak link, Tagir Ulanbekov. Tagir is a solid fighter who holds a 6-1 record in the UFC. But he’s won some close fights that could have gone either way. If he can’t dominate top control, his striking is very mediocre; he’s not dangerous at all on his feet. If Horiguchi can turn this into a kickboxing match, I like his chances to steal this fight and land some solid striking stats while doing so.   

Alex Perez ($7.5k): Alex Perez is a dope little wrestler, but for this matchup, he will be the striker in the classic striker vs. grappler matchup. I think there will come a point when the takedown well dries up on Asu Almabayev, and the fight will be determined on the feet. Perez will have to make up for lost time spent on his back and defending takedowns in the clinch. But I think he will dominate the stand-up, and I like his chances of pulling off the upset and notching some bout winner Fantasy points. Perez isn’t a high-output striker, but averages twice as many SLpM as Asu (four compared to two). This is a risky matchup as Perez could be grounded for long stretches. But he’s no chump on the mat as long as he doesn’t get caught in a guillotine; he’s been submitted three times by Gilly.   

Jack Hermansson ($7.2): Don’t sleep on Jack. This guy has less power than the American people, but he’s the King at landing meaningless significant strikes. He averages over five SLpM and has landed well over one hundred significant strikes five times in his career, with a career high of one hundred forty-eight. All those inside low kicks and jabs from the outside add up quickly. I see Jack outpointing Orolbai from distance as long as he can avoid the clinch and stay upright. Without the takedown threat, it will be hard for Orolbai to close the distance and initiate the clinch. And if Jack does end up on his back, he’ll have something for that ass. Jack has a slick guard and can land submissions from his back. Lanky and janky: that’s a deadly combination like Big L and 2Pac. Those long limbs are perfect for locking up triangles and armbars. 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Nicolas Dalby ($6.9k): This guy has been one of my underdog horses for years. Stylistically, he’s not much to look at. Dalby combines awkward Karate/Taekwondo style striking with an underrated ground game. Never forget the time Dalby survived Gabriel Bonfim’s first-round storm and went on to finish Bonfim via TKO in the second round. A fifty-eight percent takedown defense is Dalby’s major malfunction. He spends too much time on his back. But he’s good at eventually getting back to his feet. He won’t accept being in his guard for an entire round. He will fight to get back to his feet. There’s a reason why the UFC brass are giving Dalby a debuting Dagestani fighter with a 22-2 record. They know Dalby will be competitive at the very least. And if he can get the fight to the late second and third rounds, he’ll have a shot at turning the tide on the feet.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Alex Perez (+175): How will Perez look after a year and a half layoff and knee surgery? That’s the question for Perez. If he’s healed up and ready to go, he will cause all kinds of problems for Asu Almabayev. Manel Kape wrote the blueprint for beating Asu: stuff a couple of takedowns. Asu had nothing for Kape on the feet. And I don’t see him causing Perez any problems on the feet either. If Perez can force scrambles, eventually, Asu will be forced to stand and bang. His gas tank won’t last for three rounds. Perez extended combinations inside the pocket will win the striking battle. Perez will likely have to come back from a first-round deficit, but at some point, he will force Asu to win the fight on his feet. And I don’t think Asu can do that.   

Jack Hermansson (+205): I have no idea what Jack will look like at one hundred seventy pounds after spending his entire UFC career at middleweight. But Jack is an annoying fighter. He frustrates fighters by establishing his range on the outside with peppering kicks and punches. The key to Orolbai’s style is the takedown threat. Without it, Hermansson will touch him from the outside on his way to another boring dub. Boring or not, dubs are dubs. I don’t know if Orolbai will be able to get Jack to the mat consistently. And if he does, Jack has a submission game from his guard. This will be a battle of range on the feet. Orolbai will have to navigate around Jack’s long striking to get inside to set up level changes. That’s easier said than done.  

Belal Muhammad (+215): Belal has to stick to the Makhachev game plan: Takedowns, takedowns, and more takedowns. At no point can Belal abandon his wrestling. He will get picked apart from range on his feet. But he can make this an ugly fight in the clinch, against the cage, and on the mat. Ian Garry has excellent takedown defense, but he hasn’t fought a guy who is hell-bent on getting him to the mat. Lately, it’s been Garry putting his wrestling on display, scoring four takedowns against Carlos Prates and two against MVP. Belal has to stay out of kickboxing range and force Garry to exchange inside the pocket, where Belal can make reads for level changes. Garry’s M.O. is making fights boring, but that will be Belal’s tactic this Saturday, trying to dominate in the clinch and on the mat.   

Pick ‘Em

Serghei Spivac (+110) vs. Shamil Gaziev (-135) 

Winner: Shamil Gaziev  

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Bogdan Grad (+235) vs. Luke. Ril  (-285)  

Winner: Luke Riley 

Method: Decision 

Abdul Yakhyaev (-1400) vs. Rafael Cerqueira (+750)  

Winner: Abdul Yakhyaev 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Tagir Ulanbekov (-195) vs. Kyogi Horiguchi (+165)  

Winner: Tagir Ulanbekov

Method: Decision 

 Bekzat Almakhan (-105) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-115)  

Winner: Bekzat Almakhan 

Method: Decision 

Ismail Naurdiev (-130) vs. Ryan Loder (+110)   

Winner: Ismail Naurdiev 

Method: Decision 

Nicolas Dalby (+240) vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (-290)   

Winner: Saygid Izagakhmaev 

Method: Decision 

Nurullo Aliev (-275) vs. Shem Rock (+225)   

Winner: Nurullo Aliev 

Method: Decision 

Marek Bujlo (+170) vs. Denzel Freeman (-200)   

Winner: Denzel Freeman 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.