Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Carlos Ulberg (-240) vs. Dominick Reyes (+200)

Ulberg: DK: $9.3k | Reyes: DK:$6.9k

I ran into the house, sure I wouldn’t make it. After an hour stuck in traffic, clenching my cheeks, I burst through the door and was hit by a blast of warm air. That should have tipped me off. On the way to the bathroom, I checked the thermostat; it was set to eighty. Who changed it? I tried to reset it to seventy, but the passcode prompt flashed, “Enter Passcode.” I punched in “1-9-9-6,” the year the Cowboys last won the Super Bowl, but it just beeped angrily at me, still flashing, “Enter Passcode.” I retyped the code, and once again, the little box beeped its discontent. “Enter Passcode.”   

What the f**k!? 

On my way back to the living room, I made a stop at the fridge, peered inside, and exclaimed, “Shit!” After checking behind and lifting every piece of Tupperware, the last two Guinness I had been saving were gone. On my way to the living room, I dropped another quarter in the swear jar. Dejected, I plopped down on my faithful La-Z-Boy. No sooner had both cheeks contacted the cracked, fading leather than I jumped back to my feet. Something wasn’t right. My ass groove... it was lumpy and misshapen. As if an ass other than my own had taken a load off. Sitting back down, I tried wiggling back and forth, almost like I was administering a lap dance to an invisible patron. After a short time, my efforts relented, and defeated, I leaned over, reaching blindly for the remote.   

You can probably guess the result. I came away empty-handed. The remote wasn’t in its usual spot on the side table. After a couple of long strides, I was out back, hands on my hips, staring a hole through my wife who was lounging in a sun chair with one of my Guinness sweating on the ground next to her. She hates Guinness.   

A soft swirling sound, like the gentle movement of Koi fish in a pond, brought my attention to the pool behind me. Rocking nothing but swim shorts (closer to chonies than shorts) with a Guinness in one hand, and a long pole with a little net at the end in the other, was Carlos Ulberg. After taking a swig, he looked at me and said, “9-8-7-6.”   

I knew he was talking about the thermostat. On my way to grab a barstool to place in the corner of the yard to watch the proceedings, the alarm went off, and B.I.G. was bellowing, “It was all a dream...” 

Your worst nightmare is coming home and finding Carlos Ulberg chest naked, with a long net in his hand, skimming the surface of your pool, while wifey is sitting poolside, reading Les Misérables. And wifey hates reading. That’s “Mr.” Ulberg to you. You’ve heard about Mr. Steal Your Betty: Well, he is him. He’s one of them ones. He will steal your consciousness, then use a five-finger discount at checkout, valid for one free Betty per customer. My man is the human Bermuda Triangle of Betty disappearances. If a Betty walks within eyesight of Carlos Ulberg, she’s gone. Ulberg will turn your ass into Milhouse’s dad, sleeping in a cracker factory, real quick. He’ll turn your ass into a country singer belting out songs about how she left you with nothing but a broken heart, a fooked up ass groove, and an old pickup truck. And the worst part is, there ain’t shit you can do about it. You just have to accept that your kids will soon be calling you by your government name: “Richard—or can I call you Dick?—Can you pick me up from soccer at 6:30?” 

Because this guy will KO you quicker than Gypsies fall in love. Stand-up-wise, Ulberg possesses the two elements they didn’t teach you in chemistry class: LE (length) and SP (Speed). They are volatile when combined – unstable isotopes. Ulberg throws nothing but straight shots, no chaser. And his special power is manipulating range. Ulberg Depends on range like old people’s underoos. The last thing Ulberg is is a combination pocket striker. He needs space to unravel his long punches. His hands are naturally fast, but they also get a head start on the target. Ulberg’s hand position is a key to his speed. His hands lead off like runners on third with the pitcher in the windup. He holds his hands halfway extended and snaps them the rest of the way.   

Ulberg is 12-1 with seven TKOs/KOs and one sub and is currently riding an eight-fight dub streak since dropping his debut to Kennedy Nzechuckwu. Against Dominick Reyes, Ulberg has to be aggressive like he was early in his career. Lately, he has been playing it safe like bank vaults. His previous two dubs were decisions, and his most recent bout against Jan Blachowicz had me politicking with Mary Jay in the garage midway through. 

Dominick Reyes was an inside job. A special Dominick Reyes commission was convened after his loss to Ryan Spann, which determined that a single Spann jab caused Reyes's collapse. But the public has rejected those results, citing the fact that a jab, and only a jab, couldn’t cause Reyes to descend into his own footprint at free-fall speeds. After the Ryan Spann fight, Reyes became a walking conspiracy theory. I began calling him the Controlled Demolition Man, AKA Building 8. That was the fourth consecutive loss for Reyes at the time, including three TKOs/KOs in a row. It was a bad stretch like pulling a groin. Jiri folded Reyes like Marilyn Mason after having a rib removed, and Ryan Spann collapsed him at a rate of 9.8 m/s.   

Now hit that LL Cool J “Mama Said Knock You Out!” Don’t call it a comeback! Dom is one fight away from exchanging a four-fight losing streak for a four-fight dub streak. This is a man who should be a former Champ. Against Jon Jones, the judges snatched his belt like Kanye snatched the mic from Taylor Swift at the Grammys. Reyes has always been a formidable boxer. Even against Jiri, Dominick had big moments. He had Jiri rocked twice in that fight. Dom’s major malfunction is that he is one-dimensional. He’s all boxing. And that boxing consists mostly of his left hand. 

Reyes works swings at Los Pollos Hermanos; he’s a classic Gus Fring striker. Because Gus gets half his body blown off. Spoiler alert. Dom strikes like he’s missing half of his body. It’s like Dom is a conjoined twin and only has control of his left hand. His sibling controls the right hand and staunchly refuses to participate in any form of violence. But Dom has finished three fights in a row. Against Ulberg, Reyes will be the one to take risks after the first round when Ulberg tends to become too conservative. Reyes throws combinations more consistently than Ulberg. 

This is a solid Fantasy matchup. Ulberg averages over six and a half SLpM compared to Reyes’ five and a half. Also, both guys are finishing threats. I think Ulberg is more of an early finishing threat, while Reyes will remain a constant threat until the final bell. I could see this slowing down and eventually going the distance, but I like the value of playing a finish one way or another. Ulberg will be the (-240) favorite, and Reyes will be the (+200) live-ass dog. Overall, Reyes is a better boxer. But Ulberg’s speed is his advantage. Reyes can make this an ugly fight, pressuring Ulberg against the cage and dirty boxing in the clinch.  

We got back into the main event dub column when Diego Lopes stomped out another Fighting Nerd and returned the world back into the hands of the bullies again. This week is a toss-up. The odds are wild to me. This is a pick ‘em. That (+200) next to Reyes’ name is too tempting to pass up. Give me the dog. Dominick Reyes via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.  

Props

Ulberg: TKO/KO (-145) Sub (+1600) Dec (+550)  

Reyes: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2000) Dec (+800) 

Winner: Dominick Reyes | Method: TKO Rd.3

Jimmy Crute (-170) vs. Ivan Erslan (+150)

Crute: DK: $8.9k | Eslan: DK: $7.3k

Jimmy “Valmer” Crute is back. Never forget the time Anthony Smith had Jimmy Crute hobbling around like FDR on a pair of Tiny Tim crutches after landing a couple of calf kicks. Crute’s foot looked like Ash’s hand in Evil Dead, running around the cage looking for its master’s ass to kick. Homie still has a placard and enjoys preferred parking in the front row wherever he goes after being crippled in the first round against Smith. After the Smith fight, Crute broke into the Victory World Bank like De Niro in Heat and made off with nothing but ink-stained dubs against Alonzo Menifield and Rodolfo Bellato. Jimmy Crute loves playing hard to get with the dub. Crute leaves the dub hanging like the first person who discovered David Carradine with a pair of fishnets wrapped around his neck and ran out of the room to call for help. But out with the old shit and in with the new. Jimmy Crute got his first dub in five years in his previous outing and now finds himself on the verge of streaking like Frank the Tank.   

Jimmy Crute identifies as a striker but was born a wrestler/grappler. It’s when Jimmy insists on striking and not wrestling that he tends to get into trouble. He is a lot like Brendan Allen in that the two are good enough strikers to have false confidence that leads them astray from their bread and butter: grappling. Jimmy is like the CIA on his feet; he doesn’t anticipate any blowback from any of the shit he starts. He has zero defensive prowess and couples it with Jerry Jones striking IQ. Homie consistently trades naked leg kicks for overhand rights in return. That’s like trading Micah Parsons for... never mind.   

But on the mat, Jimmy will fook you up. Crute accepts PAC money from bidet corporations. Nobody blows out more labrums and rotator cuffs and has left more people wiping southpaw than Jimmy Crute. Jimmy’s special move is the Kimura from the half guard or side control. I’m rubbing Ben Gay (actual product name) on my shoulder just thinking about it. Crute averages over four takedowns per fifteen minutes while Evan Erslan defends at only sixty-four percent. Jimmy’s path to victory will look like a Lexus commercial shot in the Swiss Alps on the mat. If he gets stuck striking, Erslan will likely put him away late.  

Ivan Erslan is not a playa but he crushes a lot. A lot of cans. The names on his fight record look like an obstacle course for your tongue. On some Ninja Warrior type-ish, running up ten-foot vertical walls and swinging from ropes like Tarzan over a pit of water. My tongue got turf toe after reading the first two opponents’ names. My shit was placed on IR for the rest of 2025. Ivan Erslan is spectacularly regular but looks scary AF. He looks like Bas Rutten got hit with a Mortal Kombat Babality. House flippers call this guy to demolish walls. His hands are like sledgehammers when he lets go of them. His style reminds me of an NHL enforcer. Like one of the Tkachuk brothers. I catch faint whiffs of Glover Teixeira and Volkan Oezdemir, AKA Krang’s body, when I watch Erslan fight.  

Eslan throws nothing but short, powerful hooks and overhands. But overall, he is too repetitive. He throws right hands like my daughter listens to KPop Demon Hunters: over and over and over and... “Right hand” is the answer to all of life’s questions for Erslan. “How many drinks have you had tonight, Sir?” Right hand. Down to ride ‘til the bloody end, me and my right hand. Erslan’s left hand just pulls up a chair in the corner of the telly. His left hand is the third wheel. His left hand just looks awkward hanging there and never getting used. It’s like a phantom limb. His right hand leaves his left hanging like Stallone in Cliffhanger. But what a right hand it is. This guy is 0-2 in the UFC but could easily be 2-0. He was on the wrong side of two close fights. I like his chances of wearing down Jimmy on the feet. But the question is his ground game. I haven’t seen him on his back yet. Can he survive the first round from his guard? 

Crute is the (-175) favorite, and Erslan is the (+150) live dog. Crute can’t be trusted on his feet. If he gets to feeling himself like when doing the Macarena, he will get got. The only way Crute can lose is on his feet. If he gets the fight to the mat, I like his chances of submitting Erslan. The play for Crute is a submission, and the play for Erslan is a late TKO/KO. Crute tends to break out a cardboard square and spin on his head at some point in every fight after eating a bomb or two. Without a finish, this fight will be a dud, Fantasy point-wise. Tread carefully. Jimmy Crute via Kimura, round one. On wax. 

Props

Crute: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+250) Dec (+450) 

Erslan: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+2800) Dec (+750)

Winner: Jimmy Crute | Method: Kimura Rd.1

Jack Jenkins (-300) vs. Ramon Taveras (+250)

Jenkins: DK: $9.4k | Taveras: DK:$6.8k

Bust out the Brett Favre Coppertone compression socks. You’re bound to catch secondhand compression syndrome, restless leg syndrome, all that shit watching a Jack Jenkins scrap. This guy’s legs look like Edward Scissorhands’ hands. Jenkins will leave the tops of your ankles bleeding so fast, when the blood spills, it’s still blue. My man will have you aerating lawns as a side hustle with your wooden peg legs on weekends, like kids used to mow lawns or sell lemonade on the corner. Jack Jenkins is the Australian guy who tried to kick Bart’s ass with the huge boot on his foot. That’s that Battletoads' right leg. You think I’m playing, huh? Check it: Jack Jenkins is responsible for breaking three opponents’ fibulas in his career. “Break a leg, Jack!” He takes that shit personally. This guy will Joe Theisman your ass real quick. Hopefully, Ramon Taveras has been drinking milk and has a shiny new prosthetic leg already picked out because few people walk away from a Jack Jenkins fight—they usually crawl like Rick James after Charlie Murphy punched the shit out of his legs.     

This is a matchup of nifty strikers. Jack Jenkins has those EDC (Everyday Carry) hands – practical hands. There’s nothing flashy about Jenkins’ style. While his hands are just average, his leg kicking game is a great equalizer. Like Merab uses the takedown threat to supplement his fairly average striking, Jenkins uses calf kicks to supplement his. You start reaching down to catch his leg kicks, and the next thing you know, you’re answering the shin phone. “Hello? Hold on a second... Is I.P. Freely here? Hey, everybody! I.P. Freely!” Never answer the shin phone; just let it go straight to voicemail. Jack sets up nasty high kicks with repetitive leg kicks, and he lands one at least once in every fight. Go back and look at what Jack did to Herbert Burns. He had Herbert crawling across the Octagon like Leo crawling to the Lambo in The Wolf of Wall Street when he was gone off Quaaludes. Herbert had to throw himself down the Octagon stairs to get out of that bish. Ol’ Herbie looked like Jackie crawlin’... never mind.   

Major malfunction? Jack’s ground game. Unlike Diddy and Ma$e, you can hold Jack down. You can hold him down like Mobb Deep and the Alchemist. Hit that shit! While he rocks a sixty-seven percent takedown defense, Jack’s get-ups have close to a twenty-five percent success rate. The good news: Taveras has zero career takedowns. Output-wise, both fighters average four and a half SLpM. This should be a fairly high-output kickboxing match from bell to bell.  

Ramon Taveras, AKA Timon Taveras, is built like Pumbaa’s sidekick. But don’t get it twisted, Taveras has some slick striking. Taveras has sharp hands, like he runs them along a whetstone backstage before each fight. He throws hands like they’re ninja stars. If he’s not careful, he might fook around and get one stuck in Butters’ eye. Overall, Taveras is technical like hard fouls on a breakaway. He stays within himself and commits to short combinations within the pocket. Ramon loiters in the pocket like ‘90s kids loitered at the mall. Taveras uses slips and rips to counter while remaining inside the pocket, rather than retreating to safety. When Taveras finds his rhythm, he’s slicker than Wet Floor signs. Slicker than Black Ice. Yo! Hit that Outkast and Goodie Mobb “Black Ice!”   

But Taveras has some major malfunctions. The biggest malfunction is that he doesn’t defend his lead shoulder. Being a southpaw, that will leave him wide open to Jenkins’ high kick. Overall, his defense is lacking. He tends to take a lot of damage because he insists on staying in harm’s way and is more than willing to take two to deliver two of his own. Taveras is 10-3 with five TKOs/KOs and three subs. Jenkins is 13-4 with six TKOs/KOs and three subs. These guys are virtually even in every measurable stat.   

Except when it comes to the odds. Jenkins will be the heavy (-285) favorite, and Taveras will be the (+235) live-ish dog. Taveras is a straight boxer. He doesn’t implement any other disciplines into his offense. Jenkins averages nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes and can switch things up if he runs into a roadblock on his feet. Jenkins is just the overall better fighter. But Taveras has sneaky good striking and can cause Jack problems if he can defend early leg kicks. The play for Jack is a TKO/KO, and the play for Taveras is a decision. Jack’s leg kicks will be the difference. Taveras doesn’t have a go-to weapon like Jack. Jack Jenkins via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.   

Props

Jenkins: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+900) Dec (+120) 

Taveras: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+1200) Dec (+500)

Winner: Jack Jenkins | Method: TKO Rd.3

Neil Magny (+325) vs. Jake Matthews (-435)

Magny: DK: $6.6k | Matthews: DK: $9.6k

After fighting a little over a month ago, Neil—don’t call him Neal—Magny is running it back like his hairline. Neil’s hairline and my own are locked in a dead heat coming down the stretch of the one-hundred-meter dash. My man’s hairline is running like Kat Williams running the forty at the NFL combine. His hairline is running back like Saquon Barkley, doing 360 leaps over defenders and shit. Yo! Hit that Mooki “Track Star!” Neil's hairline is a runner; it’s a track star. Homie’s hair is running it back like rematches. But guess what. It’s still standing here, screaming “Fook the Free World!” After nearly fifteen years in the UFC, Neil Magny is still doing it and doing it and doing it well. Hit that LL Cool J! Homie is still winning fights. He’ll be stepping in against Jake Matthews after a TKO dub over Elizeu Dos Santos in August. A man who is better than anybody Jake has ever beaten. Don’t look now, but at thirty-eight years old, a winning streak could be on Neil Magny’s horizon. 

Neil Magny is that toe funk that you can’t get rid of. Neil’s got the funk. Gotta have that funk. Every time you get rid of him, he comes right back like he never left. This guy has the style of a persistent rash. You need a tube of Preparation H and a bottomless gas tank to beat him. This guy has more comebacks than ‘90s rappers – more come backs than Meek Mill at an all-white party. Before stealing victory, Neil likes to sample defeat like he’s making rounds at Costco. He swishes around defeat in a stemmed glass, aerating it and releasing the full potency of its aroma before taking a sip and spitting it out. My man suffers from severe FOMO and has to experience the agony of defeat before opting for victory. Homie shows up for the complimentary free chips and salsa and leaves without ordering anything, deciding he’d rather save money and make something at home. 

The story of Neil’s career is that sometimes he fights with an uninspired air. I always call him a poet without a muse. And sometimes he’s John fookin’ Keats issuing Poetic Justice like Janet and 2Pac. Sometimes, Neil just seems beaten before stepping into the cage. And other times, he looks like a hungry debutante. But know this: If you keep sleeping on Neil Magny, you’ll likely wake up with Sharpie face tats, looking like a gas station bathroom stall partition. Neil beats Jake Matthews if he stays upright and uses his range. Magny can out-point Matthews from the outside and steal rounds with volume over power. Both fighters average three and a half SLpM, but Magny keeps busy in between exchanges by using his jab.   

Jake Matthews Band, AKA “I didn't know you like to get wet" Jake Matthews is back. In his most recent bout, Matthews was Jake “The Snake in the Grass” Matthews, fooking up my parlay when he submitted Chidi Njokuani in about one minute. Jake Matthews is a good fighter. Not great but good. He’s been in the UFC nearly as long as Neil Magny. But there’s no comparison when it comes to their resumes. Neil has fought everybody and has big names in his dub column. Matthews has fought big names but lost to all of them. His dub column looks like a police lineup, suspect.   

“Number four, step forward.” Francisco Prado. 

“Number six, step forward.” Philip Rowe. Matthews has a dub over the host of Dirty Jobs. The Chidi dub was one of Matthews' biggest of his career. But Jake Mattews would like to apologize to “Absolutely nobody!” Now that I think about it, Jake Matthews suffers from Neil Magny disease. Sometimes, Matthews looks like he couldn’t beat Von Kaiser, and other times, he looks like he could give Super Macho Man a run for his money. But most of the time, Matthews is eighty-seven octane gas, extra regular. He’s the equivalent of a local celebrity who gets a free slice of boysenberry pie with his meal at the neighborhood Coco’s. He's not a world-beater by any means, but he’s good enough to hang around for nearly fifteen years while still winning fights. 

Jake is at his best when he shows up with a wrestling mentality. When his striking is only a means to supplement his wrestling/grappling. He’s just too stock on his feet. I’m talkin’ cloth seats, hub caps, and AM/FM radio. But he has sneaky power and can put together two-punch combos. His path to victory is pressuring Magny against the cage and exploiting Magny’s fifty-five percent takedown defense. If he relents to boxing with Neil for fifteen minutes, he will break down late. Jake is on a three-fight dub streak and has won four of his last five. He’s rollin’, rollin’, rollin’, like Limp Bizkit and Meth & Red.   

Like, Whoa! Hit that Black Rob! Matthews is the (-490) favorite, and Neil Magny is the disrespectful (+355) live dog. Neil can win this fight. The wide odds reflect Magny’s sorry takedown defense. But Matthews can’t be trusted to use his wrestling consistently. He can be lured into a boxing match too easily. If that happens, Neil can get him. This fight will be closer than the odds suggest. Magny will likely need to erase a two-round deficit in the third. The play for this one is a decision. I don’t see either guy finishing the other.  Jake Matthews via decision. On wax.  

Props

Matthews: TKO/KO (+320) Sub (+320) Dec (+130)  

Magny: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+1800) Dec (+600)

Winner: Jake Matthews | Method: Decision

Justin Tafa (-115) vs. Louie Sutherland (-105)

Tafa: DK: $8.4k | Sutherland: DK: $7.8k

Welcome to the Love’s Truck Stop Lot Lizard Invitational. This is a scrap you would witness while pumping gas at a Buc-ee's gas station. They could probably pay these guys in Beaver Nuggets. This is a slobber-knocker, emphasis on the slobber. The only thing you can count on is this fight not going past one round. If it does, it will look like folks at the local retirement home playing bumper cars with their walkers. It won’t be fast, and it won’t be furious after the first five minutes. But most likely, this one will end early with one of these guys hooked up to a sleep apnea machine. 

I don’t know much about Louie Sutherland other than that he looks like a Clegane ancestor. He’s built like a fit competitive eater. He looks like a retired WWF wrestler. I’m pretty sure Vice has a Dark Side of the Ring episode about this guy. Ol’ Louie looks like Beef Cake, the Weight Gain 4000 salesman. And that’s all I got on him. He’s 10-3 with eight TKOs/KOs and will be making his debut. He looks fairly technical on the feet, but he’s slow. A man of his size definitely has power, but there’s nothing that stands out about his style. He worked his way to the UFC by taking the Homer route, beating nothing but Boxcar Willies. Justin Tafa will be by far the most dangerous striker Sutherland has faced in the minor leagues.     

It’s well known that the Tafa brothers have the worst takedown defense ever seen. All Sutherland has to do is lean on Justin Tafa, and he will end up in the top position. But if it stays standing, Justin Tafa will knock your block off like a game of Tetris. Tafa’s missed punches could KO anybody in the division. They’re like standing on the platform with a speeding train going by. Tafa has footwork like using public showers without chanclas. He pretty much just stands in place, trying not to touch anything. But when he lets his hands go, it’s a sight to behold. Tafa also has a sneaky high kick. It looks like Lizzo getting out of a pool, but it is deceptively quick and agile. If Tafa doesn’t trip or stumble and end up on his back, he should knock out Louie Sutherland. 

But much like Sutherland, the names under Tafa’s win column look AI-generated. They look like the names in Bases Loaded for NES. But Tafa is a high-level kickboxer with a 7-5 record and a one-hunnid percent TKO/KO rate. The only play for this one is a finish. Tafa is the slight (-120) favorite, while Sutherland will return even money. The big question is what Sutherland will look like under the bright lights? This one is a coin flip. Give me the UFC veteran. Justin Tafa via TKO, round one. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Tafa: TKO/KO (+125) Sub (+3000) Dec (+800)  

Sutherland: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+1400) Dec (+275)

Winner: Justin Tafa | Method: TKO Rd.1

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Jonathan Micallef ($7.9k): This guy is an awkward sleeper. Jonathan Micallef was a (+170) dog in his debut against Kevin Jousset, and he went out and all but dominated that fight. I thought homie was strictly a grappler after his triangle choke submission dub on the Contenders Series, but he showed he could stand and bang with a dangerous striker. Micallef is far from an elite striker, but he’s long and uses kicks well. Against Jousset, Micallef put his left round kick to the body on repeat and kicked the shit out of Jousset’s liver for three rounds. And Micallef has subs in his back pocket if he ends up on his back against Oban Elliot. Oban Elliot looked like Zeke Elliott running in Cabo sand after signing a record-breaking contract and falling off a cliff in his previous fight against Seok Hyeon Ko. Micallef landed eighty-five significant strikes in his debut and could mimic that pace against Oban. 

Charlie Campbell ($7.6k): Charlie Campbell vs. Tom Nolan is a good fight to target, Fantasy-wise. It should be a high-paced/output kickboxing match for its duration. Both fighters average north of five and a half SLpM and can hover around the one hundred strikes landed mark. Campbell is the guy who had the absolute dog Chris Duncan dead to rights on the feet on the Contender Series before running into a bomb and getting KO’d himself. Charlie has slick striking, complete with good head movement and intricate footwork. The key will be getting inside Nolan’s long frame. Campbell can do so by using his footwork to create angles. If he can get inside, he will win the pocket exchanges. But he’ll be in trouble if he gets caught on the outside.   

Ivan Erslan ($7.3k): If Erslan can survive on his back for the first five minutes, he can be a Fantasy flipper. He will have a technical and power edge on his feet if he can find a way to keep it there. Jimmy Crute can be lured into a kickboxing match if you can defend a takedown or two. On the feet, Jimmy is a silhouette at the end of a shooting range. In nearly every recent fight, Jimmy has to survive being nearly KO’d. Erslan will likely have to make a late comeback, but he is a finishing threat late. The downside is that Erslan is borderline all-or-nothing. There’s a good chance he could spend significant stretches on his back, where we have yet to see his ground game to any extent. 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Dominick Reyes ($6.8): It’s rare that you find a legitimate finishing threat on the Clearance Rack. That’s like finding a package of cinnamon rolls with an expiration date of forty-eight hours instead of twenty-four on the Clearance Rack next to the restrooms. Dom is a live-ass dog with a solid chance of winning this fight. If he can avoid 50/50 exchanges early, when Carlos Ulberg’s hand speed is on fleek, he can wear down Ulberg and take over late. Reyes is the better combination striker and also uses elbows inside close range. Reyes is riding a three-fight dub/KO streak and has shared the Octagon with some of the best fighters in the division, past and present. His championship experience and newfound confidence make Dom Reyes a live-ass dog.  

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Dominick Reyes (+200): After the first round, I think it will be Reyes pushing the pace. He is the more aggressive fighter, while Carlos Ulberg tends to sit back and opt to counter first. The key for Reyes will be extending combinations and catching Ulberg out of position. Ulberg can defend one and two punches, but three and four will get through. Reyes is also the more tested fighter and has shared the Octagon with Jon Jones and Jiri Prochazka; he has faced better/more dangerous strikers than Ulberg. Ulberg is almost one hundred percent dependent on his hand speed. And if he can’t create an early finish, he opts for a tepidly paced kickboxing match. Dom’s pressure won’t allow for that. I like Dom’s chances not only of winning, but also of finishing Ulberg. 

Neil Magny (+325): Here we go again. Neil Magny sucking me back in. Just when I had written off his career in flowing medieval script, he comes right back and finishes Elizeu dos Santos. Jake Matthews is another winnable fight for Magny. The key will be shaking off one or two early takedowns. If Magny ends up on his back in the second round, you might as well tear up your ticket. He will almost assuredly give up the first round on his back, but if he comes out in the second and stuffs a takedown, we’re going to Sizzler. Neil can out-point Jake from range on the feet and possibly end up in the top position late after grinding Matthews. Magny is just a winner. Even when he loses. He’s been in the game longer than Matthews and has a better overall resume. At the very least, I think these odds are a little too wide.   

Ivan Erslan (+150): Erslan is a bruiser on the feet, but little is known about his ground game. Surviving Jimmy Crute’s submission game in the first round will be the key for Erslan. He will have a power advantage on the feet, and he is the more technical striker overall. If he can keep it standing in the second round and beyond, I like his chances of creating a finishing sequence. Crute’s chin is a Coachella hologram version of its former self. Crute takes a couple of laps around the mall on a pair of Heelys at some point in every fight. The straight-up odds are good for Erslan, but I would press my luck and pull the trigger on a TKO/KO.   

Pick ‘Em

Tom Nolan (-150) vs. Charlie Campbell (+130) 

 Winner: Charlie Campbell 

Method: Decision 

Navajo Stirling (-240) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (+200)  

 Winner: Navajo Stirling 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Loma Lookboonmee (+200) vs. Alexia Thainara (-240)  

 Winner: Alexia Thainara 

Method: Decision 

 Jonathan Micallef (+105) vs. Oban Elliott (-120) 

 Winner: Jonathan Micallef 

Method: Decision 

 Cameron Rowston (+150) vs. Andre Petroski (-175)  

 Winner: Cameron Rowston 

Method: Decision 

Colby Thicknesse (+125) vs. Josias Musasa (-145)  

Winner: Josias Musasa 

Method: Decision 

Jamie Mullarkey (-110) vs. Rolando Bedoya (-115) 

 Winner: Jamie Mullarkey 

Method: Decision 

Michelle Montague (-235) vs. Luana Carolina (+195) 

 Winner: Luana Carolina 

Method: Decision 

 Brando Pericic (-210) vs. Elisha Ellison (+175) 

 Winner: Brando Pericic 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.1 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.