Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Johnny Walker (+285) vs. Mingyang Zhang (-370)

Walker: DK: $6.8k | Zhang: DK:$9.4k

They say Vegas is dying, slowly hemorrhaging tourists each month. Yet one glance at the Encore pool would fool you. Chest-to-chest, back-to-back, shoulder-to-shoulder, so many half-naked bodies are wedged together so compactly that they form a single mass. A mass so dense that it displaces much of the water over the sides of the pool, flooding the deck. A pungent mix of body odor and Banana Boat SPF 50 hangs over the area like radiation after nuclear detonation. They have all come to see DJ 80 Proof, and right now they’re eating out of the palm of his hand as anticipation builds. His iconic bass drop is only moments away. The crowd is ready to explode - to shake and thrash about, flinging the week’s stress from the ends of their pumping fists.   

3... 2... 1...  

The air horns sound, and DJ 80 Proof’s hands shoot into the air, a pastor casting salvation upon the bowed heads of his congregation, as the baseline hits the crowd full in the chest, staggering them. But they recover quickly, rallying to find their collective rhythm. The pulsing 808 drums can be felt as far as the Luxor. For those in attendance, there is no tomorrow—only now. And all they want is an encore. Once again, the air horns sound, the beat fades briefly, then 80 Proof’s hands raise above his head as if he’s starting the wave. The bass drops, and the believers are, if only momentarily, in heaven. 

Who could ever forget the time Jamahal Hill knocked out Johnny Walker? Johnny turned into Mickey Mouse in Fantasia when Mickey conducts the broom orchestra. He looked like... a fooking Vegas pool DJ. Not even Phil Hawes and Bruce Willis die harder than Johnny Walker. My man dies hard like that guy on The Green Mile who gets electrocuted without a wet sponge on his head. Johnny goes out like Eduard Delacroix: “He’s cookin’ now!” Johnny remains the only man to ever get knocked out four times in one round. Google “Johnny Walker gets KO’d four times.” Homie got flatlined four times but rose up after each one like the Undertaker – like he got hit with the shock pads. “Clear!” Only to get met with another punch and flatlined again until the ref finally pronounced him dead. Time of death: eighteen seconds into the first round.  

Johnny Walker’s major malfunction is that he has a primitive style. His hands are like crude stone weapons. He looks like Turok fighting velociraptors with his bare hands. Johnny’s striking hasn’t invented the wheel yet, and fire is still centuries away. “Me hit. Me hurt.” That’s the unabridged version of every Johnny Walker game plan. He’s basically a human trick play on the feet with no fundamental skills to fall back on. Every play he calls is the Statue of Liberty, hook and ladder, or fumblerooski. He can’t matriculate the ball up the field by establishing a jab and using basic footwork. Walker has to land some spinning or flying shit to be effective. And his ground game... well, from his back, he looks like DDP did against Chimaev. But, somehow, Walker has dubs over Khalil Rountree, Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig, and Anthony Smith.   

Walker gets into trouble when the fight settles into a traditionally paced kickboxing match. He has to create chaos and wild exchanges. That won’t be a problem against Mingyang Zhang. Because wild exchanges are all Zhang engages in. There is a good chance this fight won’t see a second minute, let alone a second round. For however short the fight is, Walker needs to bust out all the trick plays in his playbook and let the chips fall where they may. 

Check it: Mingyang Zhang has twenty-five career fights and twenty-one ended in the first round, including the last twelve in a row. He’s Mr. 100 like Wilt. Along with a one-hundred percent finishing rate, Zhang has nearly a one-hundred percent finished rate to match. Of his six career Ls, five came by finish (three TKOs/KOs and two subs). Every Zhang fight looks like Homer vs. The Krusty-Burlgar, “Stop! He’s already dead!” Every exchange is a duel at two paces, double fisting Uzis with extendos that curve like elephant tusks. He’s the MMA version of Frank Castle. And when he hurts you, Zhang empties the clip like Brad Pitt at the end of Seven. Homie has more Killer Instinct than the Super NES. That’s why his fights are so short. U can fit an entire fight into a GIF. The fight is over before you finish closing the pop-up ads (Thank you, lord, for Paramount Plus!). Zhang is a premature finisher: a couple of right hands and he’s reaching for the pack of cigs and remote. If a fight ever goes to a decision, he will turn into B. Rabbit, “Fook it; I don’t want to win. I’m outie.” 

You can already guess Zhang’s major malfunction. He has no D like John Wayne Bobbitt. Zhang has a cherry-picking defense. He doesn’t even bother running back to the other end of the court. For a guy who unleashes such aggressive attacks, he never anticipates any blowback in return. Also, the question remains, how good is he? His level map is almost completely unexplored after the first round. The whole thing is basically blacked out. He needs to send out some scouts to scope out a second round. Can he go fifteen minutes? He doesn’t have to. And he won’t have to against Johnny Walker. 

Because one of these guys will get got. And quickly. Don’t sneeze, or you might miss this one. Stats? Fook ‘em. The only play is an early TKO/KO. Fantasy-wise, this is one of the few instances when the early finish points are in play. Zhang is the (-375) favorite, and Walker is the (+295) shelter dog. Zhang has far better technical skills. Johnny is all smoke and mirrors. He must use unconventional means to win. If I were Johnny, I’d be looking to get Zhang to the mat early and salt away the clock in the first round. Let’s see how Zhang looks in the second round. George Tokkos was able to land one takedown against Zhang. If it stays standing, Zhang will land a vicious combo or elbow and end it early.   

I am now 1-9 when it comes to picking DDP fights. I finally showed some faith in him, and he couldn’t stay on his feet for more than twenty seconds. But I knew the job was dangerous when I took it. A homie didn’t even overlook it. Live by the dog; die by the dog. This week, Walker’s top control, combined with the unknowns about Zhang’s ground game, has me a little worried. This will be a one-round banger or a drawn-out cuddle session on the mat. This doobie’s for the first option. Mingyang Zhang via TKO, round one. Put it on wax. 

Props

Walker: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+1100) Dec (+1600)  

Zhang: TKO/KO (-280) Sub (+1200) Dec (+2500) 

Winner: Mingyang Zhang | Method: TKO Rd.1

Brian Ortega (+235) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-285)

Ortega: DK: $7.2k | Aljo: DK: $9k

No one will ever forgive Aljo for “beating” Petr Yan the first time. The belt was immediately hung in the rafters next to the Lakers’ bubble chip and the Astros' 2017 “championship.” It wouldn’t be worth a free Chalupa coupon in any pawn shop in the U.S.   

“The best I can do is this coupon, buddy.”  

“It’s expired. And I ain’t you buddy, pal.”  

Then Aljo came back and won the real belt in the Yan rematch. Then went on to solidify it, defending it against T.J. Dillashaw (I know homie blew out his shoulder) and Henry Cejudo. After losing the belt to Danksy, Aljo jumped up to featherweight, where he has gone 1-1.   

The problem for Aljo is that his style is an acquired taste. Like eating kimchi. Like drinking anything on the rocks. It might not be exciting, but it’s effective. Aljo is going to get you down, and do you like an old-school D’Angelo music video. He’s gonna do you Nice & Slow like Usher. You got it, you got it bad when Aljo gets you to the mat. You have to let it burn, all those third-degree mat burns on your back when you fight Aljo. Aljo is a back specialist. “Doctor said I need a backiotomy!” He won the second Yan fight with nearly two full rounds of back control. Every path Aljo takes on the mat leads to the back mount, and when he gets it, the round is automatically conceded.   

Overall, Aljo's fights are ugly. Steve Buscemi ugly. Ugly like stag dates at the Prom. He’s not a great or, sometimes, effective striker. His striking looks like when you play the UFC video game for the first time, and you’re trying to figure out the buttons; it’s just a hotch-potch of single strikes with no cohesion that can be interpreted as a combination. But Aljo has solid kicks, and he’s long. He can fend you off and use his length to pressure and level change. I don’t see Aljo shying away from Brian Ortega’s submission game from his back. So, creating damage from the top position will be the key to victory. He has to beat up Ortega and not allow him to throw on the Mossy Oak camo and splash on some elk piss cologne and go submission hunting.   

After all, Ortega’s nickname is “T-City.” As in Triangle City. Although I think Ortega’s best submission is his gilly. Escaping Ortega’s guillotine is like escaping Alcatraz. Alexander Volkanovski is the only fighter to ever accomplish the feat. Ortega throws up gillies like bulimics throw up breakfast. Standing in the clinch, from the top or bottom, Ortega will jump the gilly from any position. We’re going to call him G-City. Ortega has eight career submissions, and he’s at his best when he can utilize his grappling offensively to supplement his striking. He gets into trouble when he has to rely solely on his striking. Don’t get it twisted like Dee Snider, Ortega isn’t a crumb bum on the feet. He has crispy boxing with a special move: the spinning back elbow. The technique that stole the show last week. Ortega draws you forward and counters with the spinning elbow. He ended The Korean Zombie’s career with it. 

But Ortega is a montage striker. He waits until “No Easy Way Out” is playing and he’s begging his corner to “Cut me, Mick!” between rounds before he starts to fight. Homie takes beatings like when you would watch HBO when your parents finally went to sleep. Ortega eats punches like Joey Chestnut eats Franks (or wieners if you want to be a Richard about it).  My man is defensively illiterate. I’m talking Floyd Mayweather reading Les Miserable type of illiterate. Ortega can’t even spell defence. By the end of the fight, Ortega looks like Lupe Fiasco’s “The Cool,” starting to decompose. Over the years and after countless wars, Ortega’s chin has become more compromised than Washington, DC. There comes a moment in every Ortega fight when he blows kisses and bats his eyelashes at disaster. My man Dances with the Devil like Immortal Technique. Hit that shit! But you can only do that when you have more dog than Cruella De Vil. Only the doctors can stop Brian Ortega.   

Both fighters average around four SLpM, but I would give the overall stand-up edge to Ortega. He has a more traditional offense. But Ortega lost three of his last four, and he took an utter beating in the fight he won against Yair. Maybe Ortega will try to put Aljo on his back? This could turn into a grappling firefight. But it could just as easily turn into an ugly kickboxing match. The play for this one is a decision. Neither fighter has ever been submitted, and I don’t think the stand-up will produce a finish. Aljo is the (-245) favorite, and G-City is the (+200) live-ass dog. Ortega can win this on the feet, and he always has the Gilly in his back pocket. Every time he level changes, Aljo will be risking his neck getting snatched. Man, this is a tough pick. I’ve been burned by Ortega too many times, though. Aljamain Sterling via decision. On wax. 

Props

Ortega: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+800) Dec (+450) 

Aljo: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+400) Dec (-115)

Winner: Aljamain Sterling | Method: Decision

Sergei Pavlovich (-245) vs. Waldo Acosta (+205)

Pavlovich: DK: $8.9k | Acosta: DK:$7.3k

Yo! Hit that AC/DC “Hells Bells!” A panel in the outfield wall opens, and Waldo Acosta comes jogging out for the top of the ninth inning. Waldo Acosta is a former Major League pitching prospect-turned MMA fighter. He throws hands like he’s throwing two and four-seam fastballs. Off-speed pitches? Fook all that. Acosta is going to beat you with the cheese. Quietly, Acosta has compiled a 14-1 professional MMA record, including a 7-1 mark in the UFC. After beating Sergei Spivac in his previous bout, I woke up with a thick layer of crust over my eyes. I’ve been sleeping on this guy. Sleeping on him like Steven Seagal in a coma in Hard to Kill. I woke up with an Abe Lincoln beard and nails as long as the blades on Edward Scissorhands’s hands. A win over his second consecutive Sergei—this time Sergei Pavlovich—will put Acosta right in the mix of the title conversation in a division that is thin when it comes to true contenders for the Champ, Tom Aspinall.   

“Where In the World Is” Waldo Acosta might have the fastest hands in the heavyweight division. He has that closer speed when he takes the hill and shortens every game to eight innings. He’s the Trevor Hoffman of MMA. Waldo’s best weapon on the feet is his jab. His jab is so good that he uses it too much. Is it possible to use a jab too much? Waldo might be the only MMA fighter who uses his jab too much. He uses it so much that I think he has developed commitment issues with his right hand. When it comes to throwing his right hand, Acosta doesn’t get cold feet; he gets frostbite. Homie throws up dueces at the altar and leaves with the bride’s maid. It’s a little frustrating watching Acosta because he doesn’t follow up all that jab work with his right hand. Usually, fighters simp for the power hand, but Acosta simps for his jab. But he controls fights from the outside by sticking and moving and avoiding extended exchanges. And so far, that has worked for him. 

Waldo’s major malfunction is that his technique tends to fade as the fight progresses. His technique starts to fall apart like swap meet kicks. Your pair of Jordans turn into chanclas after a walk to the mailbox and back. When he jabs, his right hand drops to his waist, leaving him open to counters. Acosta isn’t a combination striker but still manages a high output. Acosta averages six SLpM compared to Pavlovich’s four and a half. In his previous bout against Spivac, Waldo landed one hundred ten significant strikes. It was the second time in his career that he eclipsed one hundred strikes landed. All those jabs add up quickly. The key for Waldo against Pavlovich will be using his footwork on the outside to get Pavlo to over pursue. Waldo can counter Pavlo down the middle with speed.   

Sergei Pavlovich began his UFC NBA Jam on fire, coming out dunking from half court. He followed up a debut loss to Alistair Overeem with six straight TKO/KO dubs. But then he lost two in a row and was one fight away from going back to swatting planes out of the sky from the top of the Empire State Building. "I’m the King Kong of this bish!” Homie was on his Training Day shit before turning to MMA. Not only is Pavlovich built like a gorilla, but he trains with them at the zoo. You can catch them picking fleas off each other and tossing handfuls of shit at onlookers after practice. Speaking of shit, Pavlo’s M.O. is going ape shit in the cage. 

Pavlo hits you with factory resets. You turn into a black screen of death with your loved ones waiting anxiously for the Apple logo to appear. Pavlo hands out nothing but Bat Dad vs. Randy Marsh ass whoopin’s. You end up battered and bloodied with your pants around your ankles by the end of the fight. Yo! Hit that American Idol “Pants on the ground!”   

“Pants on the ground. Pants on the ground. Lookin' like a fool with your pants on the ground!”  

Pavlo has more power than Jekyll Island. He has that Big Bang power. Enough power to create a new solar system when he lands. And you already know: no one man should have all that power. He has so much power that his missed punches leave you walking in italics. But it doesn’t come without major flaws. Pavlo’s biggest deficiency is a lack of footwork. He has that Terry footwork. Who the fook is that? “Back up, Terry! Put it in reverse!” My man moves as if he's wearing cement shoes into the cage like a mob victim. Pavlo is simultaneously at his best and worst inside the pocket, extending combinations. That’s when he is the most dangerous and the most vulnerable. Overall, Pavlo isn’t a boxer; he’s a big puncher. He lacks the intricate nuances of boxing and makes up for it with aggression and power.  Pavlo has to draw Waldo out of his comfort zone on the outside and into the pocket, where he can overwhelm with combinations.  

Pavlovich will be the (-230) favorite, and Waldo will be the (+190) live-ass dog. Waldo stifles his opponents’ power with speed and lateral movement. And he’s good at avoiding dangerous exchanges. I don’t see Waldo finishing; he only has two finishes in the UFC. He will have to out-point Pavlovich for fifteen minutes. The play for Pavlovich is a TKO/KO. Pavlo’s previous two bouts went to a decision. He lost one of them. Pavlo needs a finish, or Waldo will out-work him. In his last two bouts, Pavlo landed only forty-six and twenty-five significant strikes. I started writing this with every intention of picking Pavlovich. But here I am... No, don’t do it. I think I’m gonna do it... I think Waldo can stay out of harm’s way, using his jab and footwork. This one could turn into a slow-paced nip/tuck bout, and that would favor Acosta. Fook it! Give me the dog! Waldo Acosta via decision. Put it on wax.  

Props

Pavlovich: TKO/KO (+110) Sub (+2500) Dec (+275) 

Acosta: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+2500) Dec (+450)

Winner: Waldo Acosta | Method: Decision

Su Mudaerji (-175) vs. Kevin Borjas (+150)

Mudaerji: DK: $8.5k | Borjas: DK: $7.7k

Su-su-Susudio!. Yo! Hit that Phil Collins! Su Mudaerji is back. He beat the odds after he was pronounced dead at the end of his classic fight against Matt Schnell in 2022. After beating the brakes, rearview mirror, and the “Baby on Board” sticker off Matt Schnell but failing to finish him, Su fell off a cliff like Gavin Escobar. Schnell proceeded to lay out Su like a red carpet after catching him in a triangle choke. Su looked like he had found the peace in death that he couldn’t find in life as he lay there with his eyes open and smile on his face. Su still owns the Guinness Book of World Records record for the most ass kicked that resulted in a loss. That was the beginning of a three-fight skid for Su. But my man came back like that shit on ya lip, son, with a victory against Mitch Raposo. Unfortunately for Su, Mitch ain’t walking through that tunnel on Saturday night. A grimy little savage named Kevin Borjas is. This one will be a crunchy groove – a stand-up banger.   

Lanky & Janky & fast as f**k booooooy! That’s Su Mudaerji. You already know that’s a recipe for an ass-whoopin'. Su’s arms are so long that they tangle like Christmas lights. Not my neighbor’s lights, though. Because they have better takedown defense than Su’s sixty-seven percent. But I’ll get to that in a second. Su is so long that he can hit you from two weeks from now. And his hands are quicker than life. What makes Su’s speed unique is that he sets it up with half-speed punches. He just touches you while rocking the yellow jersey and taking laps around the outside. Then he explodes after lulling you to sleep. Su doesn’t beat you with power; he beats you with speed and punches you don’t see coming.   

But Su is submissive on the mat. Of his seven career Ls, six came via submission. Su makes every grappler look like Tatsuro Taira. This guy gets submitted like a politician at a Snooty Fox Hotel room with a lady of the night clad in a latex body suit, brandishing a little tasselly horse whip and a ball gag. Su taps like he’s asking for directions. 

“Excuse me, Sir. Do you know where the Apex is?” 

Su taps like faucets. He submits like official paperwork. The good news is that Kevin Borjas has zero career submissions. But it wouldn’t take much for him to record his first if the fight ends up on the mat. Su is 17-7 for his career with thirteen TKOs/KOs and one sub. He averages four and a half SLpM compared to Borjas’s five. Fantasy-wise, this is a good fight to target for high significant strikes. You can’t go wrong with either fighter, even in a loss.   

Straight out of Apocalypto, a crazy MF named Borjas. You gotta be crazy to make your debut on short notice against Joshua Van. Then have the audacity to go the distance with him. Going from fighting Joshua Van to fighting Su Mudaerji is like going from storming the Normandy beaches on D-Day to playing Call of Duty on co-op mode. Borjas fights like a Mexican, but he’s from Peru. Let me tell you something: You don’t want to fook with homies from Peru. Borjas is the Takanakuy fighting festival champion five years running. Borjas will come out rocking face paint, leather chaps (ass intact), with nothing but a pair of socks over his hands, ready to do battle.   

Borjas has a primitive style. Like fans fight for foul balls and home runs in the stands at baseball games, Borjas looks like he fought for the heads they rolled down the pyramids in ancient Aztec times. And he waited after the ceremony to get the head signed by his favorite executioner. Borjas fights like he’s tracking prey with a spear. His best weapon is a power jab. The power jab sat down Joshua Van like Chris Hansen walked into the Octagon.   

“Have a seat, Joshua.” 

“I ain’t Joshua, buddy.” 

Borjas plagiarized Rob Font’s jab. He sticks you with the jab, then unloads short two to three-punch combos. After losing his first two UFC bouts, Borjas got into the dub column with a win over Ronaldo Rodriguez. Borjas defended takedowns and beat up R-Rod for fifteen minutes. Borjas is 10-3 with eight TKOs/KOs.  

Su is the (-155) favorite, and Borjas is the (+135) live-ass dog. Borjas was the dog in every UFC bout so far. He held his own against the most dangerous striker in the division, Joshua Van. The man who might fook around and beat Toja Cat. Borjas will have to take risks to get inside on Su. But he is the better combination striker, especially inside the pocket. But can he handle Su’s speed? Su has never been finished on the feet, and Borjas has only been finished once. I like playing this one for a decision, but there is value in a TKO/KO either way. I’m going back-to-back dogs. Kevin Borjas via decision. On wax.    

Props

Mudaerji: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+1200) Dec (+110)  

Borjas: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+2000) Dec (+275)

Winner: Kevin Borjas | Method: Decision

Michel Pereira (-270) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+220)

Pereira: DK: $9.2k | Daukaus: DK: $7k

Don’t quit your day job. Just ask the Daukaus brothers. Kyle is the brother of Chris, who was infamous for quitting his job as a Police officer after going 4-0 to start his UFC career. He then lost four in a row by TKO/KO and is no longer with the UFC. This will be Kyle’s second stint with the UFC after going 2-3-1 the first time around. Kyle has always reminded me of a Temu Brendan Allen or Brandon Allan. And I’ve always thought he was better than his UFC record. “You are what your record says you are!” Fair enough. The Daukaus Bros are the Anti-Diaz Bros. They’re unassuming and mild-mannered and easy to take lightly. While his brother, Chris, is a striker first, Kyle is a grappler first. He has eleven career subs to one TKO. His path to victory will be paved with gold bricks and lined with festive munchkins on the mat. 

Stand-up-wise, Kyle isn’t much to look at. He’s unstable like Ikea furniture on his feet. He looks like a Jenga tower when you can’t possibly pull another block free without knocking it over. The Leaning Tower of Daukaus. And his chin is unstable. Kyle can’t wait to cut a rug like Tavolta in Dirty Dancing every time he gets hit. If he can’t get Michel Pereira to the mat ASAP, he will likely get knocked out.  

Michel, bring back the Ringling Brothers circus shit. I want to see Pereira swinging from the rafters again on some trapeze-type-ish. I need a full Simone Biles Olympic floor routine in the middle of the fight. Like we need shit-talking Kevin Holland back, we need Cirque Du Soleil Michel Pereira back. Like his debut inside the Octagon when he was cartwheeling and dealing and flipping all over the cage. But he lost that fight to a grown man named Tristan. I know, but all that wild shit was the secret sauce. It’s what makes Pereira special. In many ways, Pereira is like a more functional Johnny Walker. A 40-proof house Johnny Walker. Yo! Hit that Lox “Wild Out!” Pereira has to get back to wildin’ out and being unpredictable.   

And he needs to stay on his feet. While he rocks a respectable seventy-six percent takedown defense, he looks like Doc Holiday with TB lying in his deathbed with a cig in his mouth from his back. My man has tuberculosis get-ups. He just lies there coughing up blood. He needs a nurse to bathe him and change his bedpan when he gets taken down. It’s bad. Pereira showed good sub defense against Fluffy, but Fluffy wore his ass out on the mat like Tyson backstage. The good news is that Daukaus isn’t Fluffy on the mat.   

Pereira will be the (-290) favorite, and Daukaus will be the (+240) live-ish dog. Anyone who can get Pereira down is a live dog. But if Daukaus can’t... Bad News Bears. Daukaus will have to control the majority of fifteen minutes from the top position. That’s a tough task against a guy as athletic as Pereira. If you’re going dog hunting on Saturday night and want to play Daukaus, take him by decision. Pereira went nearly five rounds with Fluffy on top of him, so I’m sure he can survive Daukaus’s ground game. Play Pereira for a TKO/KO. There’s value in a decision, but Daukaus’s chin is suspect like wanted posters. Michel Pereira via TKO, round two. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Pereira: TKO/KO (+130) Sub (+900) Dec (+225)  

Daukaus: TKO/KO (+1100) Sub (+600) Dec (+550)

Winner: Michel Pereira | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Kevin Borjas ($7.7k): Borjas vs. Mudaerji should be a stand-up banger. In just three UFC bouts, Borjas has already faced better strikers than Mudaerji in Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa. Su isn’t a TLC scrub by any means; his length and speed will be a lot for Borjas to handle. But Borjas is a dog and attacks with combinations. Borjas landed seventy-five strikes against Van and a career high eighty-three in his most recent dub over Ronaldo Rodriguez. He can steal this fight with extended combinations and overall volume. The key for Borjas will be attacking the body to get inside and extending to the head. I like his chances of stealing this fight while recording moderate to high-significant strikes. A finish? That will be a long shot. 

Waldo Acosta ($7.3k): Not only can Waldo win this fight, but he can rack up significant strikes along the way. He will be the higher output fighter, and he might be the more technical, better all-around striker. Footwork and speed: both will be in Waldo’s favor. He has to avoid extended combinations inside the pocket and use his jab to score from the outside. Waldo isn’t much of a combination striker, but he’s a rare jab’er in MMA. He uses his jab almost too much. But they add up. Eclipsing one hundred significant strikes is nothing new to Waldo. He has done it twice, including his most recent bout against Sergei Spivac, a wrestler who wanted to get the fight to the mat. Waldo won’t have to worry about takedowns against Pavlovich. Pavlo has looked like anything but the marauder who went on a six-fight TKO/KO streak after losing his debut. He has been slightly exposed. Pavlo has power, but he’s not much of a boxer. Waldo doesn’t have Pavlo’s power, but he’s a much better boxer.  

Brian Ortega ($7.2k): Not only is Ortega a live-ass dog, but he’s also a submission threat. Aljo has never been submitted, but he hasn’t faced G-City. Ortega’s gilly is everything Dustin Poirier’s wanted to be. Never forget when Volkanovski had to virtually take off his fight shorts to wiggle out of Ortega’s guillotine in their epic title fight in 2021. Also, after taking a serious beating in the first round against Yair, Ortega came back and submitted him in the third. This is more of a long-shot pick. I’m going submission hunting with this one. If Ortega can keep the fight standing, he can win the fight with better, more technical boxing. 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Kiefer Crosbie ($6.9k): Crosbie will be up against a man they call “Super Saiyan.” Nueraji Taiyilake is 11-1 with a one-hundred percent finishing rate, including ten TKO/KOs. But he will be making his UFC debut, and you already know, it’s different when you step under those bright lights. Crosbie has had a rough go of it in his first UFC bouts, going 0-2. But he fought two solid fighters with excellent submission games. This fight will have little chance of hitting the mat and is much more suited to Crosbie’s striking background. Crosbie won’t be hesitant to engage, and this could turn into a 50/50 firefight. Barring an early finish, Crosbie might be able to put some points on the board, and at the very least, he should test Taiyilake’s chin. And when the game is throwing fists, anything can happen.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Charles Johnson (+175): CJ doesn’t lose to strikers. All five of CJ’s UFC losses came against wrestlers/grapplers. Just over a year ago, CJ knocked out Joshua Van. CJ reminds me of Bobby Green Light when Bobby was still in his prime. He switches stances and commits to combinations. He will be up against Lone’er Kavanagh, who looks like the dweeb in Boy Meets World with the '90s bowl cut with the part in the middle. Kavanagh has the look of a budding elite striker, but he isn’t there yet. Coming off the Contender Series, Kavanagh was highly touted. He won his first two UFC bouts, but I wasn’t much impressed with his previous bout. He can get got. And he hasn’t fought a guy with CJ’s experience. CJ has been in the cage with some real heathens. I like his chances to out-dog Kavanagh, dragging him into the deep end with no floaties on.   

Waldo Acosta (+195): Like T-Pain, all Waldo does is win, win, win, no matter what. Waldo is 7-1 in the UFC and currently riding a five-fight dub streak. A former pitcher in the Cincinnati Reds minor league system, Waldo literally throws hands like they are baseballs—nothing but two and four seamers. Waldo has the footwork along the outside and the boxer’s jab to stifle Pavlo’s attacks. Pavlo looks uncomfortable when the fight slows down and settles into a traditionally paced stand-up bout. He needs chaos within the pocket to thrive. Waldo won’t be easy to draw into such a fight. He rarely commits to combinations and instead dominates with well-timed strikes from the outside. If he can avoid dangerous exchanges, especially within the first five minutes, he can outpoint Pavlo.   

Brian Ortega (+225): I’ve lost a lot of confidence in Ortega. His chin just can’t hold up anymore. But the good news is, Aljamain Sterling is far from a world-beater on the feet. Not giving up his back will be half the battle. Ortega has excellent Jiu-Jitsu. In fact, he’s a better grappler than striker. If he can avoid Aljo’s signature position, he will not only be a sub threat on his back, but he is the overall better striker. Also, if Aljo falls into a rhythm and gets complacent with his takedowns, Ortega always has the Gilly sitting shotty waiting to be locked up. There’s nothing particularly scary about Aljo’s game. If he wins this fight, it will likely be by riding out top control. Ortega is the more dangerous fighter on the feet and the mat.  

Pick ‘Em

Nueraji Taiyilake (-440) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+330) 

Winner: Nueraji Taiyilake 

Method: Decision 

Maheshate (Even) vs. Gauge Young (-120)  

Winner: Gauge Young 

Method: Decision 

Lone’er Kavanagh (-210) vs. Charles Johnson (+175) 

Winner: Charles Johnson 

Method: Decision 

Zhu Rong (-245) vs. Austin Hubbard (+205)  

Winner: Zhu Rong 

Method: Decision 

Zha Yi (-1200) vs. Westin Wilson (+700)  

 Winner: Zha Yi 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Long Xiao (+110) vs. Su Young You (-130) 

Winner: Sunday Young You 

Method: Decision 

Uran Satybaldiev (-145) vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (+125) 

Winner: Uran Satybaldiev 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.