Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Welcome to the reigning, defending, undisputed BMF breakdown. 

Main Card 

Justin Gaethje (+130) vs. Dustin Poirier (-155)

Highlight: DK: $7.9k | Diamond: DK:$8.3k

“Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.” 

Days Without A Nuclear Holocaust: 1,932 

 April 14, 2018, a day that lives in infamy. Nuclear ash still falls upon every corner of the globe, carried on the cusp of torrential winds. In a bed they made for themselves, the Gods of past and present tucked humanity under a blanket of permanent fog. Now they must sleep in it. Radioactive snowmen, ineffectual scarecrows, stand sentry at the dilapidated gates of the only remaining vestiges of civilization, vagrant communities started by those unlucky enough to have not perished during the “Big Bang.”  

For years, humanity scratched and clawed its way back from the brink of extinction. But it wasn’t long before the follies of the past became those of the present. Old habits die hard, Bruce Willis. Local leaders were nominated, elected, then elevated, leaders becoming rulers. And before the soil was fit to bear sustenance, the world was again on the brink of a nuclear holocaust. Despite concessions and staunch commitments among the new world’s “leaders” to never again allow such events to transpire, we find ourselves on the eve of history—a broken record—repeating itself. 

UFC 291. 

War, what is it good for? Metaphorically, as it applies to prizefighting, absolutely everything. Wars make legends, and even in autumn, legends never fall. They transcend. Waterloo, Gettysburg, Normandy, the first fight between Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier was all that. The earth still smolders from the colossal amounts of artillery unleashed in just over fifteen minutes. Those who witnessed it feel lucky to have survived it. But here we are again, blowing kisses and batting our lashes at disaster. In backyards across America, people are living in shipping containers, sitting upon thrones of Chef Boyardee cans, their popcorn ready, as we approach nuclear winter. This Saturday night, they will have the last laugh. Until they run out of oxygen, become inundated with paint buckets filled with doodie and urine, and start eating each other. Then they’ll wish they had gone out with a bang. 

F**k the BMF belt; this one is for a Legend belt. This is officially World War IV, the third installment being back in 2018 when Gaethje and Poirier first fought. Poirier won that fight with a nasty fourth-round TKO, in a fight that Gaethje was winning up until that point. Poirier’s lead leg had gangrene by the end of the first round and was completely necrotic after the second. While Poirier was landing heavy volume with his hands, Gaethje was landing volume leg kicks and causing far more damage. Gaethje landed twenty calf kicks in the first round alone. When it comes to the combat sports pantheon of leg kickers, Gaethje is at the top. The leg-kicking Mt. Rushmore features Ernesto Hoost, Pedro Rizzo, Jose Aldo, and Justin Gaethje.  

But leg kicking comes with a price, especially when you throw them naked (nothing in front) like Justin Gaethje. One of the best ways to discourage kicks is to counter them with punches. Although Poirier suffered heavy damage, he had a lot of success countering leg kicks with hand combinations. But Poirier learned a valuable lesson in that fight and went on to become a better leg kicker himself. The big question is, how will Poirier deal with them this time? Leg kick the leg kicker. Gaethje may be one of the best leg-kickers ever-ever, but he doesn’t defend them with the same proficiency. Only Jose Aldo defends leg kicks as well as he throws them.  

The keys for Poirier in the first fight were volume and achieving the outside angle, the Lomachenko angle outside the orthodox fighter’s lead leg/shoulder. Poirier constantly used his lead hook to step outside of Gaethje’s lead leg, allowing Poirier to attack from Gaethje’s blind side. It also forced Gaethje to cover up and spin around to try to find Poirier while Poirier extended combinations. But achieving the “Lomachenko” angle might be more difficult for Poirier this time. Gaethje’s defense has evolved tenfold since 2018. The Tony Ferguson fight marked a more defensive-minded Justin Gaethje. He no longer just covers up in front of opponents in the pocket and waits out the barrage. Head movement in anticipation of strikes and when finishing combinations have become staples in Gaethje’s defensive repertoire. And knowing Justin Gaethje’s coach, Trevor Wittman, he’ll have Gaethje prepared for the battle of outside foot position. 

Simple bobs and weaves have added a new element to Gaethje’s boxing since the last meeting. He can now disguise his power shots with rolls and avoid counters, and I think he will engage with his hands more often this time. The key for Gaethje will be resisting the urge in the middle of battle to resurrect the old Nick Cannon Wildin’ Out Justin Gaethje. The calculated, patient Gaethje we saw against Ferguson, and most recently against Rafael Fiziev, will win this fight. The impatient, swinging from his Crocs, off balance, haymaker-throwing Gaethje that we saw against Khabib, Oliveira, and at times against Chandler will get beat. 

These guys have been traveling an Oppenheimer path toward disaster, a Khrushchev and JFK path, since 2018. And America has been locked in an escalating cold war ever since. But they were destined to meet again. Since 2018, both guys have gone 6-2 with four finishes and have losses to Khabib and Charles Oliveira. They were also both Interim Champs who fell short of ditching the asterisk and hoisting the undisputed belt. When it comes to a third title shot, the winner of this one has next like a pick-up game at the Y. 

Fantasy-wise, Justin Gaethje is the Barry Bonds of Fantasy points. Dude averages nearly seven and a half significant strikes landed per minute and can KO or kick the leg off any human being, land-dwelling animal/mammal, or extraterrestrial on Earth. His career record is 24-4 with noineteen TKO/KOs and one conspiracy theorist sub that won’t conform to the consensus. Poirier averages five and a half significant strikes and has twenty-two career finishes in twenty-noine career dubs. Poirier represents a duel threat with sneaky chokes on the mat to compliment his striking. Dustin’s ground game from the top position is excellent, and he may look for takedowns throughout the fight, at the very least, to keep Gaethje honest. 

Poirier is the (-140) favorite, and Gaethje is the (+115) dog, and there’s no better plus-money dog than Justin Gaethje. Pardon my French, but Gaethje is a fuckin’ dawg. One day they’ll exhume Justin Gaethje for scientific research and find that his coffin has a scratched ceiling. A Gaethje TKO/KO will return (+225). A Poirier TKO/KO will return (+175) and a submission (+650). Keep in mind, Dustin has excellent D’arce/Anacondas and eight career submissions, including subs over Michael Chandler and Max Holloway.  

The main event dub streak sits at four after a gimme last week when Tom Aspinall went full Suge Knight and ran over Marcin Tybura. This one is impossible to pick. I came here with every intention to pick Dustin Poirier, but while writing this, I have talked myself into Justin Gaethje. Go back to the third round of the first fight; Gaethje had Poirier on a pair of Heelys, skating the mall. He had Poirier hurt multiple times in that fight, and that’s not including the damage from the leg kicks. Justin Gaethje via TKO, round three. On wax.  

Winner: Justin Gaethje | Method: TKO Rd.3

Jan Blachowicz (-120) vs. Alex Pereira (-105)

Jan: DK: $8.2k | Pereira: DK: $8k

Co-main events have come a long way since the days of Molly McCann’t and Julija Stoliarenko. Who said change is a gradual process? This is a matchup of remedial power vs. short bus power, stupid power vs. stupid power. Blachowicz’s power was held back in the third grade, and the only points Pereira’s scored on the SAT was for spelling his name correctly on the Scantron. This is MMA’s version of Lloyd Christmas vs. Harry Dunne. Of course, this could also turn into a replay of Blachowicz vs. Izzy if, like Izzy, Pereira can’t find a way to stay on his feet. And there lies the biggest question yet to be answered about Pereira. He can KO any lifeform within a one-hundred square lightyear radius of Earth, but can he defend a takedown? If so, this one won’t go the distance, and the winner will likely fight for the newly vacant title in their next bout. 

Alex Pereira is a real-life Predator with a heat signature guided missile for a left hand. Pereira’s left hook is the most technically sound left hook I have ever seen. What makes it so devastating is it can generate a ton of power traveling a short distance. It’s the shortest left hook around. You often see fighters load up on lead hooks or open up at the elbow to generate extra power from a whipping motion. Pereira’s hook just turns over from the high hand guard position straight to the target and generates Dim Mak bottom brick power that drains the opponent's life meter in one strike. Also, lending to the power in his left hand, is his square Bas Rutten stance. His jab becomes a jab/cross hybrid because his shoulders stay nearly perfectly aligned instead of having a lead shoulder. This creates more power, but the tradeoff is less ability to maintain distance. 

But Pereira’s special ability isn’t his left hook; it’s that he looks scary as fook. Pereira is the guy you imagine stepping out of the limo-tinted car you honked at a split second after the light turned green. He looks like nobody loves him, and he’s okay with that. Nobody has more staredown TKO/KOs than Alex Pereira. But although Pereira is huge, scary-looking, and has nuclear codes clenched in his left fist, he has massive planet-swallowing black holes in his striking. Pereira’s defense is a Madden fifty. He has an upright stance and stands tall in the pocket when he exchanges and has zero, zip, nada, zilch head movement. His main defense is parrying strikes out in front of him, which can easily be thwarted by round punches. This is why Pereira is a sucker for right hands. Izzy landed and hurt Pereira with the right hook in every one of their four fights. Pereira doesn’t react to right hands at all, or any strikes for that matter. It’s like he thinks he can intimidate the punches coming at him and convince them to veer off course. 

The key against Blachowicz will be keeping away from Jan’s right hand and staying on his feet. In the third round of the first Izzy fight in the UFC, Izzy took down Pereira and controlled him from the top for nearly the entire round. If Izzy could do that to Pereira, Blachowicz sure can. And Izzy learned that strategy from Blachowicz, who used it to beat Izzy. If I were Blachowicz, I would try to replicate the same game plan he implemented against Izzy in the third round and beyond when he finally decided to take down Izzy. 

This might be controversial, but I think Jan’s striking may be just as good, if not better than Pereira’s. Even without takedowns, this will be a tough fight for Pereira. In his last bout against Ankalaev, Blachowicz evened the striking by destroying bofa Ankalaev’s legs. He had Ankalaev looking like Ace Ventura with spears stuck in his legs. “I’ll have you know I have the reflexes of a cat, and the speed of a mongoose.” He had Ankalaev looking like he was walking around on hot coals. Watch Jan attack the legs; he likes to hook and lift the opponent's leg on the follow-through. This throws the opponent off balance and makes them vulnerable to follow-ups. I think both fighters will attack the legs early and often, and the fight could come down to who can defend them. Pereira had Izzy in all kinds of trouble in the second round from leg kicks, and I think he will try to make it hard for Jan to penetrate on takedowns by taking his legs out from under him early. 

That’s why I think Jan should look to implement power doubles straight out of the gate. Against Izzy, it took Jan a couple rounds to work his wrestling; he can’t afford to do that against Pereira. In fact, Jan's easiest path to victory is making this a boring fight in which he controls several minutes with top control. Why take a chance on the feet playing around in Pereira’s wheelhouse if you don’t have to? This fight will either be a stand-up banger or a huge disappointment, with Pereira spending long stretches on his back. 

Jan will be the slightest of favorites at (-115), and Pereira will be a negative money dog at (-105). Pereira is coming off a devastating KO loss, and Jan can definitely finish Pereira on the feet, but I think his best path to victory is taking down Pereira and winning the rounds. Pereira will be more dependent on a finish to get his hand raised. A Pereira TKO/KO will return (+165). A Jan TKO/KO will return (+250), and a decision (+350). It will be hard for Izzy to duck a re-rematch and a fifth fight with Pereira if Pereira can pull this one off. But I think Jan will salt away rounds from the top position. Jan Blachowicz via decision. I’ve been flip flopping all week. Alex Pereira via TKO, round three. Final answer. On wax.  

Winner: Alex Pereira | Method: TKO Rd.3

Michel Pereira (+130) vs. Wonderboy (-155)

Pereira: DK: $7.4k | Wonderboy: DK:$8.8k

The Cirque Du Soleil trapeze artist Michel Pereira is back, and this might be one of the wildest clashes of stand-up styles ever. In his famous fight against Tristan Connelly, Michel Pereira came out swinging from the rafters and doing Simone Biles tumbling floor routines. Of course, Pereira gassed after the first round and lost that fight. Since then, he has toned down the antics but still busts out the backflip guard pass from time to time. If there ever was an occasion to bring back the Ringling Brothers Circus act, it would be this one. I want to see Pereira do the Blanka cannonball across the cage while Wonderboy Double Dragon helicopter kicks over the top of him. This shit right here, homies. This. Shit. Right. Here. This is a video game matchup, a dream matchup. Gingers will be serving snow cones in hell before this fight sucks. 

Michel Pereira has quietly won five fights in a row and is one of the biggest wild card in any division. His major malfunctions are pacing and takedown defense. If he can get those things right, he could have a title shot upside. Pereira’s unique approach to striking starts with lateral movement. This guy goes straight NASCAR in this bish. This guy will complete five hundred laps around the cage by the end of the third round. He uses the movement to keep his opponents from setting their feet, allowing him to stop on a dime and blitz. He also mixes in Capoeira cadences that act as mesmerizing feints and misdirections before he explodes into a flying knee or massive right hand. 

Range; Michel Pereira is a master at manipulating it. He uses sudden-death PK soccer kicks up the middle and some of the longest punches in the promotion to stay at a range where he can touch you, but you can’t touch him. His right hand crosses time zones. Everyone knows about all the flashy weapons Pereira uses, but the one he keeps concealed is his jab. He has a sneaky good jab, and he uses it to touch and score points as he dances on the outside. His jab work is often the difference in close rounds. 

Pereira’s major malfunction is his pacing. He tends to fade like a thirty-two-channel mixer. Michel is huge for the division, and his body burns a lot of fuel performing all the explosive movements. And all Pereira movements are explosive movements. Even his bowel movements; looking like Dave Chappelle taking a doodie in slow motion. The key against Wonderboy will be keeping up with Wonderboy. Surprisingly, Pereira averages five significant strikes per minute to Wonderboy’s four. But Wonderboy can keep a more consistent pace with no lulls for the entirety. This should really be a five-round main event. The fook were we doing watching another Holly Holm main event instead of this? 

What can I say about Wonderboy that you don’t already know. This guy is an ass-kicker extraordinaire. His style is an ode to 90s action films, Jet Li, Jackie Chan, Tony Ja, and all that. Wonderboy could have been in every DMX movie. This fight will be a battle of range and speed versus speed. Wonderboy is a master, maybe the best ever, at closing the distance. Wonderboy teleports into the pocket. He can get inside, deliver a four-piece combo, and get out before you even knew he was there. The snake charmer's lead hand, waving melodically in front of your face distracts, while Wonderboy leaps in with a quick reverse 1-2. Like a wrestler striker uses the power hand to cover distance, so does Wonderboy, but Wonderboy uses in/out movement to disguise it. 

Wonderboy can also stay on the outside and pepper with Metamucil, stool-softening side kicks. There’s nothing more frustrating than trying to engage, and every time you come forward, you get kicked in the chest or gut. Timing, speed, and deceit. That’s the Wonderboy holy trinity. He’s fast as f**k boy, has excellent counterstriking, and uses false entries to hide his attacks. And he does all this with a smile on his face. Hallmark should make Wonderboy sympathy cards. “Sorry you got your ass kicked. Hope we can still be friends. Yours truly...” 

Wonderboy is the (-170) favorite, and Pereira is the (+140) live dog. Wonderboy will have advantages in experience competing against the very best in the world, as well as technically and tactically. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime striker with an understanding of range and creating angles that are far beyond our mental capacity. Pereira will have to come out fast and try to overwhelm Wonderboy. Before getting every square millimeter of his ass kicked, Kevin Holland rocked Wonderboy in the first round of their fight. With the in/out karate movement comes the occasional running into a big shot. Fantasy-wise, Pereira landed over one hundred strikes in each of his last two bouts and over noinety the fight before. Although he gases, he finds ways to keep offering output. Win or lose Pereira will put up solid striking stats, and he will always be a finishing threat. But I gotta ride with Wonderboy. His speed, even in his forties, catches everyone by surprise; they’re never ready for it. Wonderboy via decision. On wax. 

Winner: Wonderboy | Method: Decision

Tony Ferguson (+300) vs. Bobby Green (-400)

Ferguson: DK: $6.7k | King: DK: $9.5k

Man, I love both of these mf’ers. If you’ve been rocking with me for a while, you know Bobby Green is my favorite current fighter. Bobby Green and Dominick Cruz have the best movement in the game. I study and train Cruz and Bobby Green's footwork every day. Their approaches are to hit and not be hit. Cruz often talks about treating defense like you’re being attacked with swords; anything that touches you can kill you. Bobby’s defense and offense are predicated on making you miss. Not only can he take advantage of your momentary vulnerability, but nothing gases you faster than missing punches. Green is coming off a Lethwei headbutt TKO/no contest over Jared Gordon, a fight in which Green didn’t look like his usual self. I didn’t see any of the walk-on-water footwork and lightning-quick pull-counters. He looked flatfooted and slow in that fight. This will be a good fight for Green to get his groove back. 

This could be VH1 When the Music Stops, starring Tony Ferguson. When the record skips and all the Salsa dancing and Cha-Cha-Cha'ing doesn’t work, Tony doesn’t have any fundamentals to fall back on. It’s like doing one of those ice breaker trust falls at a corporate function, and your partner just lets you fall and crack your head open. There are no fundamentals to catch Tony. He made a career out of awkward movements and deceptive attacks. But now he has lost a step, and his funky footwork isn’t there anymore. And Tony used to have one of the most dangerous guards in the game, not just submissions but also striking from his back. He won the interim belt by carving up Kevin Lee from his back and locking in a triangle. But now Tony Ferguson looks more like Turd Ferguson, and that hurt to type. 

Can Tony get his groove back? I don’t know. I would love to see Tony go straight Boogie Nights and skate around the cage; go straight John Travolta and dirty dance on Bobby Green. Tony in his prime vs. Bobby Green would be an all-time classic. His only hope to win this fight is to dance like nobody’s watching and try to summon a little bit of that old Tony Ferguson funk. What scares me is I don’t know who Tony can beat now. Tony making this a competitive fight would be a dub for him.  

All the pressure is on Bobby Green. His stock took a bit of a hit after that headbutt against Jared Gordon. He didn’t look good in the opening round of that fight and got KO’d by Drew Dober in the fight previous. Add in the Makhachev fight, and Green is looking at 0-2-1 in his last three fights. But he was bodying Dober for the entirety of that fight until he got caught along the fence. Green looked fast and made Dober look silly at times. When he fights fast and loose, Green is at his best. Against Gordon, he fought uncharacteristically flatfooted and tried to land with power. Power isn’t Bobby’s game.  

Fantasy-wise, Bobby Green will have a good shot at a late finish. He averages nearly six significant strikes per minute and has far more gas left in the tank than Tony. But remember, EVERY time I completely write off someone in flowing medieval script, they fookin’ win. Ask Julija Stoliarenko. King Green via TKO (+165), round three.  

Winner: King Green | Method: TKO Rd.3

Michael Chiesa (+125) vs. Kevin Holland (-150)

Chiesa: DK: $7.8k | Holland: DK:$8.4k

This is a grappler vs. striker matchup. At least, Michael Chiesa better hope it is. They may call him Maverick, but Michael Chiesa’s striking is far from Top Gun. He’s a Maverick without a Goose, and if he gets caught in a dogfight with Kevin Holland, my man will turn into Owen Wilson Behind Enemy Lines. Kevin Holland is the Morgan Freeman of MMA; he’ll whoop your ass and narrate it in a sultry soothing voice. Homie will film a new Netflix standup special in the middle of a fight and make you the punch line. This one should be a dope little clash of styles and rounds out a dope main card that would be worth buying if I was into that sort of thing. 

Michael Chiesa has to get this fight to the ground. He has wins over some solid grapplers like Neil Magny and Rafael dos Anjos at welterweight, and he also has submission wins over Beneil Dariush and Jim Miller at lightweight. This dude can grapple his ass off and has ten career submissions in sixteen pro wins. The problem is his number of wins by TKO/KO: Zero. Cheisa’s striking is awkward, like someone smacking their kid in public. Awkward like blind dates...because they tend to run into shit and make a scene at restaurants. His striking looks like he’s trying to find his way to the bathroom in the middle of the night. Hand positioning, the basic of all basics, is where Chiesa’s striking veers off course. He keeps his hands halfway extended in front of him. That’s a mechanism to compensate for a lack of hand speed by decreasing the distance the hands have to travel. It also takes away power which explains zero wins by TKO/KO. 

Chiesa is coming off a decision loss to Sean Brady, a fight that looked like two Frat buddies reuniting after ten years, a hug fest against the cage. Fantasy-wise, it’s submission or bust for Chiesa. He averages less than two significant strikes per minute, but he averages nearly three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Holland’s biggest weakness has always been his takedown defense and lack of urgency to get to his feet. Chiesa could absolutely drag Holland to the mat and dominate the top position on his way to a decision dub. Holland has underrated Jiu-Jitsu, so a submission is a bit of a long shot. And three of Chiesa’s last four wins were decisions. 

If Kevin Holland can maintain distance and stay upright, he will finish Chiesa on the feet. That’s a big if though. Kevin Holland doesn’t always use his reach well and has a terrible habit of leaping into the pocket. He pole vaults into the pocket. He triple jumps into the pocket. Holland’s biggest issue at middleweight was over pursuing and giving up takedowns. But when he stays within himself and moves his feet instead of using power shots to close the distance, this guy is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. In his last bout, he cracked The Ponz’s ass like Slaaaangoo-Geeeeenarsh-Mash. He hit Santiago Ponzinibio with a flying left hook that turned off the lights like the end of the month. Holland left The Ponz on the mat looking like a backup dancer in a Juvenile music video. Holland has a Sentient Arm Morty massive right hand, and when he hides it behind the jab, it’s twice as deadly.  

You have to go full woodshop class on Kevin Holland. You have to attack his legs and whittle them down into chair legs with Victorian floral patterns. Also, if Michael Chiesa is reading this, don’t follow Holland when he circles to his left. He likes to throw the hook to corral opponents into the right hand. It’s like directing traffic off a cliff. If I were Michael Chiesa, I would have worked solely on my cardio so I could implement the Merab takedowns-in-volume game plan and leave as little time on the feet as possible. More importantly than defending takedowns, Holland has to focus on getting back to his feet and not letting Chiesa salt away the clock by holding him against the cage.  

Holland is the (-150) favorite, and Chiesa is the (+125) dog. There’s a lot of value in Michael Chiesa here. Maybe not worth busting out the Piso Mojado signs, but Chiesa can steal this fight if the lazy middleweight Kevin Holland shows up and allows himself to be held down for long stretches. But don’t get it twisted; Holland is the finishing threat and peep the return on a Holland submission at (+500). Holland has long arms, which are handy for locking up head and arm chokes, D’arce/Anoconda/Brabo, etc. And head and arm chokes are handy when defending takedowns. And-and, four of Chiesa’s six career L’s came by sub. If Chiesa gets lazy and stalls on a takedown, Holland could snatch his neck. A Holland TKO/KO will return (+140). A Chiesa sub will return (+350) and a decision (+330). Kevin Holland via Anaconda choke, round three. On wax.  

Winner: Kevin Holland | Method: Anaconda Choke Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Justin Gaethje ($7.9k): Gaethje is a volume striker and one of the most notorious finishers in the game. If the first fight was any indication, these guys are very evenly matched, and an early finish is unlikely. This will be a drawn-out banger, giving Gaethje plenty of time to rack up significant strikes and accumulate damage that will give him a good shot at a finish. Remember, Gaethje was ahead in the first fight heading into the fourth round, and multiple times had Poirier looking like he just hit a can of air duster, discombobulated. 

Michel Pereira ($7.4k): Ow, ow, owoooooo! Michel Pereira is wild for the night; he howls at the moon. In each of his last three fights, Pereira’s output has increased. Against Niko Price, Pereira landed noinety-two significant strikes; against Andre Fialho, he landed one hundred seven; against The Ponz, he landed one hundred ten. His cardio and pacing have been improving, and even when he’s completely gassed, Pereira finds a way to dig deep and keep offering output. And he’s a wild, unpredictable savage who can land some CGI-type-ish at any moment.  

Uros Medic ($7.6k): This dude is a savvy kickboxer with a one hundred percent finishing rate. He’s 8-1 with six TKO/KOS and two subs. He’ll be up against a dangerous power striker and wrestler, Matthew Semelsberger. The key for Medic will be staying away from Semelsberger’s Quagmire right hand, especially in the opening round, when Semelsberger tends to land and end fights early. If Medic can keep the fight standing, he is the more versatile and intricate striker. Uros has long, fast hands and deadly kicks and uses more weapons than Semelsberger, who is pretty much right hand or bust on the feet. Although he hasn’t racked up much Octagon time in four UFC appearances, Medic averages eight significant strikes per minute and is 3-1 in the promotion with three TKO/KOs. 

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Priscila Cachoeira ($6.8k): First off, at this point, why is Miranda Maverick a favorite in any fight? Last August, I dropped an Andy Jackson on a Cachoeira TKO/KO at (+650) against Ariane Lipski, and I cashed it. Priscila’s nickname is zombie girl, and it is one of the most fitting. She’s the female Chris Leben who just marches forward, throwing Hobgoblin hand grenades all over the Octagon until the opponent is dusted or time runs out. Cachoeira debuted in 2018 against Valentina Shevchenko and went on to lose her first three UFC bouts. Since then, she’s 4-1 with three TKO/KOs. Her opponent, Miranda Maverick, is 2-3 in her last five and lucky not to be 0-5. Maverick didn’t get the memo that “Life’s a risk, Carnal.” She is a C- fighter who does just enough to earn a passing grade. Maverick might be able to take down and control Cachoeira for fifteen minutes, but Cachoeira is the far better finishing threat.  

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Derrick Lewis (+180): Oh, you thought you weren’t going to see The Black Beast? Derrick Lewis is a plus-money Hall of Fame underdog. When it comes to the touch of death, Lewis holds the original patent. The question is, has Lewis run out of KO fairy dust? He is on a three-fight losing streak and lost four of his last five, and he’s up against Marco De Lima, whose style is Lewis's kryptonite, wrestling. De Lima also has dangerous striking that he can rely on if the takedowns aren’t there, but he’ll likely try to take down Lewis ASAP, like at the glove touch. But Lewis is the ultimate one-punch Sulton of Swat who steps into the cage, points to the view-level seats, and calls his shot. 

Priscila Cachoeira (+245): She’s a Makaveli The Don Killuminati track one Bomb First representative, who is far more dangerous on the feet than her opponent Miranda Maverick. Maverick is a habitual halfway crook, and you already know there ain’t no such thing as halfway crooks. Risk isn’t in Miranda’s vocabulary; she drives in the slow lane with her hazards on, wears a pocket bib when eating, and waits thirty minutes before going swimming. And her game plan will be a secret to ABSOLUTELY NOBODY! Maverick will try to clinch against the cage, drag Cachoeira to the mat, and clock top control time. If she struggles to get Priscila to the mat, we going to Sizzler, homies! Priscila’s only means of victory is a TKO/KO finish which will return ( ). If the fight goes the distance, the result will likely favor the better grappler, Miranda Maverick. A Cachoeira TKO/KO will return (+500).

Pick 'Em

Gabriel Bonfim (-325) vs. Trevin Giles (+255)

Winner: Gabriel Bonfim

 Method: Rear-Naked Rd.2

Derrick Lewis (+180) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-220)

Winner: Marcos Rogerio de Lima

 Method: Decision

Claudio Ribeiro (+170) vs. Roman Kopylov (-210)

Winner: Roman Kopylov

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Jake Matthews (-260) vs. Darrius Flowers (+200)  

Winner: Jake Matthews

 Method: Decision

CJ Vergara (-155) vs. Vinicius Salvador (+130)

Winner: CJ Vergara

 Method: Decision

Matthew Semelsberger (-210) vs. Uros Medic (+170)

Winner: Uros Medic

Method: TKO Rd.2

Miranda Maverick (-300) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+230)

Winner: Priscila Cachoeira

Method: TKO Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.