Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Leon Edwards (-170) vs. Colby Covington (+140)

Leon: DK: $8.2k | Colby: DK:$8k

It’s no joke, blowing a funny fuse. It happened quickly, unexpectedly. One minute, Colby Covington was yippin’ and yappin’, bumpin’ his gums up a category five storm, and the next, his facial expression was stuck, suspended animation after Kamaru Usman snapped his jaw in half. Colby was left in a state of permanent slack-jawed awe. Everywhere he went, his bewilderment was impossible to hide. The Jehovah’s Witnesses at the door, amazed. Tell me more! The guy handing out skincare samples at the mall, astonished. No way! The waiter at Chiles bringing fajitas to the table, the audible sizzle capturing the attention of everyone in the joint, dismayed. Whole. Lee. Shit! Everywhere he went, Colby was a modern reimagining of Hansel and Gretel, leaving a trail of drool behind for all his foes to follow so they could duff him out outside a club in Miami or with a typecast regional weapon, a boomerang, in Sydney, Australia.     

After the first replay, I just stopped laughing. Like, as soon as the jaw snapped in slow-mo, that was it. Nothing else was funny after that. Dumb and Dumber? Nope. Monty Python? Nada. Half Baked? Nothing. I don’t know how long it lasted, a week, a month, an eternity; doesn’t matter, it’s all the same. A single day without laughter is a day hardly worth living. It wasn’t until someone told me the Weekly KO ain’t the best MMA breakdown in the game that I picked up where I left off and spent one of my noine lives laughing to death. Colby went on to lose a rematch to Usman and one to Jorge Masvidal in the streets, and yours truly has been laughing ever since. All’s well that ends well.    

You can call him Stipe Covington or Colby Miocic. You can say sitting out for two years and still getting a title shot is like getting promoted after calling out sick every day without PTO. You can say he looks like Sid from Toy Story all grown up and graduated from torturing toys to hosting tea parties with Real Dolls. You can say what you say, but give me that bomb beat from Dre, let me serenade the streets of LA. Hate It or Love It, the underdog is on top. I’ve come to respect Colby Covington. When it comes to that dog, this guy has a whole pack of Black Mirror Metalhead machine gun dogs in him. U can break his jaw but not his heart. Colby isn’t the most technical striker or dominant wrestler, but his fight IQ, pressure, and cardio are world-class.   

Pace is Colby’s best weapon. He can wrestle his ass off until he can’t sit down, and he has solid boxing, but what makes Colby special is the pace that he sets between both. He’s a volume striker and wrestler. In six career five-round bouts, Colby has exceeded the one hundred strikes mark three times. He landed noinety-noine and noinety-four in two others. Colby throws nothing but combinations on the feet, and his body locks can’t be cracked; he holds on to the body lock like Cowboys fans do the 90s. Like wifey does the time in 2015 when I used the just-for-pretty hand towels to dry my hands. Overall, Colby’s style is that of a technical bar fighter. He creates drama every second of the fight with a steady barrage of crooked overhands and hooks and a consistent commitment to take down attempts.   

Colby’s major malfunction is in his striking. He has lazy feet. Colby doesn’t move his feet well and gets caught reaching for punches and leaving himself open to counters. It’s when he can’t implement his wrestling and has to rely solely on his striking that Colby becomes beatable. Leon’s wrestling is the most improved aspect of his game. Colby has to stay committed to at least threatening level changes to keep Leon honest with his striking. If Colby allows this fight to look like both Usman fights, he will get systematically picked apart on the feet. Colby is 17-3 for his career with four TKO/KOs and four subs, including 12-3 in the UFC. But he’s 0-2 in the streets. Tha Streetz Iz A Mutha. When it comes to scrappin’ in the streets, Colby turns into BJ Penn outside an Applebee’s getting KO’d by the parking meter guy. If Leon loses this fight, he can meet Colby at the Waffle House down the street afterward and get his belt back.  

Leon Edwards was once the guy with little tree branches glued to his head and doused in elk piss like Acqua Di Gio. After the Head Kick Heard Round the World, he became the elk wondering why that guy over there glued branches to his head and had Rudolph piss on him. The hunter became the hunted. He responded well to his new role in the rematch against Usman and won a decision even after losing a point in the second round for a fence grab. But Usman fought Leon’s fight that night, and Colby won’t likely do that. Leon is a pristine striker; he steps into the cage clad in all-white garb and leaves without a single blood stain on that bish. You have to throw dirt on that shit, scuff his penny loafers, and force him into an ugly fight. Colby has the style to do exactly that.  

But Leon has the style to stifle Colby’s aggression. Leon is a master of range with long, sharp hands like Samurai swords. Swingin’ sword lecture, closin’ down the sector, supreme neck protector. His best attribute on the feet is speed. Leon will hit you with a jab and have time to make a quesadilla before you react. Hit you with a cross and do some fookin’ laundry, using the little Shout brush on the streaks in his chonies. Hit you with a left high kick and detail his car, then ghost ride that bish back to the arena, all before you realize wtf happened. His style is the complete opposite of Colby’s. Colby is a 1920s Al Capone Tommy gun, spraying everything in the vicinity, and Leon is a sniper’s rifle with a telescopic scope. Leon adjusts his strikes based on the draft created by the arena’s A/C, the slope of the Octagon, and the distance to the target. His kicks can be calibrated to land on the coordinates of a specific freckle on your ass.  

The key for Leon will be keeping the fight within kickboxing range and limited exchanges within boxing range. Leon isn’t a pocket fighter; Colby is. Colby needs to get on the inside and unload combinations, while Leon needs to stay on the outside and pick his shots wisely. The knock against Leon is he fights in a fundamental box and doesn’t take many risks. He’s a point fighter who relies on a single shot to turn the tide. If that shot doesn’t come, Leon is more than okay with poking and prodding his way to victory. Colby will have to use volume to force Leon into some 50/50 exchanges in the pocket, while Leon will have to use lateral movement to matador Colby’s aggressive blitzes.   

Controversial Hot Take: I Think Leon’s wrestling is just as good, if not better, than Colby’s. At least his overall grappling, once the fight is on the mat, is better than Colby’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if Leon looked to engage in wrestling from the clinch and used the breaks to create damage. But the biggest key to the fight will be Leon’s cardio. It’s suspect, like Taco Bell breakfast tacos. Leon tends to fade in fights, and Colby never ever ever fades. If there were no round limits like boxing in 1915, Colby would be undefeated. The championship rounds will be all Colby unless Leon can create significant damage in the first three.   

Leon is riding an eleven-fight dub streak, but he and Colby share common opponent losses to Kamaru Usman and street altercations against Jorge Masvidal. Leon is 21-3 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and three subs. Leon averages under three SLpM to Colby’s four, and Colby averages four takedowns per fifteen minutes to Leon’s one. The fight will likely play out for the majority on the feet, and I think the play for each fighter is a win by decision. Neither fighter is a big finisher. Leon has never been finished in his career and Colby has only been finished twice. But I think Leon’s speed gives him the better chance to finish early, and Colby’s cardio gives him a better shot late.  

Leon is the (-145) favorite, and Colby is the (+120) live dog. The question about Colby is how he will look after a nearly two-year layoff while Leon has been active and competed in back-to-back championship fights. I’ll be checking the live odds on this one because once this fight hits the fourth round, I think Leon will start to fade, and the tide will turn in Colby’s favor. Colby is a First Team All-Pro Fantasy scorer. Even in a loss, he can light up the scoreboard. Leon is coming off landing one hundred twenty strikes against Usman in his last bout, but only landed fifty-five in the first bout before landing the head kick.   

Yadong did it again. Song Yadong got the main event picks back into the win column last week. I thought this one was clear-cut, but now I’m having doubts. Colby Covington is a real mother-shut-your-mouth and cannot be underestimated. But I think Leon’s speed will be a problem for Colby, especially early. Leon will have to get off to a good start and not give up any early rounds, or Colby could steal it late. The final main event pick of 2023: Leon Edwards via decision. You know what to do with that shit. Put it on wax! 

Props 

Leon: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+1400) Dec (+165)  

Colby: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+1400) Dec (+225) 

Winner: Leon Edwards | Method: Decision

Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Brandon Royval (+155)

Pantoja: DK: $8.6k | Royval: DK: $7.6k

This is a New Mexico desert banger. Have oxygen masks and smelling salts on deck. I’ve been training all year, just so I won’t gas out while writing this one. I could type two hundred words per minute and still not keep pace with these two. This is a rematch from 2021, a fight in which Alexandre Pantoja won via rear-naked choke in the second round. But the result doesn’t tell the whole story. Brandon Royval was getting him some, and his pace looked to be wearing down Pantoja heading into the second round before Royval gave up his back, and that’s all she wrote. Who? IDK, it’s just a saying. This fight will be the equivalent of the movie Speed. In that movie, a city bus was armed with a bomb that was set to detonate if the bus dipped below sixty mph. These two will fight like their fight shorts are outfitted with time bombs set to explode if their pace dwindles before the allotted twenty-five minutes is up. 

Crown Royval is back and riding a three-fight dub streak, including back-to-back first-round finishes. He reminds me of a souped-up Tim Elliot, a Tim Elliot with racing stripes, hemi engine, and exhaust pipes that exhale like dragon’s breath. On the feet, he’s like a half-scale Kevin Holland who fights like he’s a danger to himself. Like Holland, Royval triple jumps into the pocket to close the distance. He’s Jordan taking off from the free throw line in that bish. Royval is Vince Carter tea-bagging that Australian dude in the Olympics when he leaps into the pocket. Risks? This guy was taking them in the womb, carnal. As soon as the bell rings, Royval comes out cracking Nate Diaz whipping punches and janky kicks that don’t look like much but are essential to the overall chaotic picture Royval paints inside the Octagon. His best weapon is pace. This guy sets the cruise control at a buck twenty and kicks back with his feet on the dash, not realizing cruise control isn’t autopilot.   

On the mat, Royval is an O-Dog and Caine Menace II Society. He breaks all the rules and bucks the grappling establishment every chance he gets. Royval is a rolling stone on the mat. Daddy was a rollin’, rollin’ stone. He rolled away one day, and he never came home. This guy is a ball of kinetic energy that never stops moving. His grappling is like dropping a dollar bill on a windy day and trying to pick it up. You can’t control him and have no idea where he will go next. Royval is 15-6 for his career with four TKO/KOs and noine subs. He sets you up with chaos on the feet and knocks down the seven-ten split with slick subs from his back or top position.  

The key for Royval will be just being himself. In the first match, it looked like he was about to take over the fight but got out-maneuvered in a wild grappling exchange. Pantoja has excellent cardio of his own, but it looked like Royval’s pace was already wearing on Pantoja after the first round. Royval averages just three and a half SLpM to Pantoja’s four and a half, but that’s because he spends so much time rolling around on the mat. Pantoja is 25-5 for his career and has never been finished, but that streak could come to an end on Saturday. This fight will not go the distance. One of these guys will get got on the feet or the mat. The play for Royval is a submission after creating a fight-ending sequence on the feet.   

Alexandre Pantoja is wild; he howls at the moon. His style on the feet is like when you guess correctly your opponent's play on Techmo Super Bowl, nothing but blitzes. He’s a Suave commercial of flying luscious locks when he gets to throwing hands. Fourth and fifth-level punches are his trademark, and although he lacks intricate techniques, Pantoja makes up for it with pure aggression. He picks his spots wisely and engages with nothing but combinations, punches in bunches. The key to fighting Pantonja is not retreating in a straight line and using lateral movement to avoid being trapped against the cage. But Pantoja is all offense and zero defense on the feet; he relies almost solely on his Jay Leno granite chin. Cue that “Chin Check” by NWA: “N-N, dub-dub-dub W, A-A, A-A!” Pantoja shows up to the all-you-can-eat punch buffet at opening and has to be escorted out by security at closing. 

But Pantoja’s striking is just a formality before taking the fight to the mat, where he is the best pure submission grappler in the division. He won the Ultimate Fighter back in the day and holds three victories over the former champ Brandon Moreno because he is just a step above in the grappling. He’s a JanSport backpacker who sets off on a journey with no plans of returning like Evan Tanner. As soon as he got Royval’s back in the second round of the first fight, it was a wrap. Wrap it up, B. Seven of his ten career subs came via rear-naked choke. His backmount is a death sentence. He also has eight career TKO/KOs and eighteen overall stoppages in twenty-six career dubs.   

Pantoja is the (-175) favorite, and Royval is the (+145) live-ass dog. The play for both fighters is a stoppage, but the difficult part will be deciding between a TKO and submission. Both fighters are kill-or-be-killed on the feet and on the mat. I think Royval has a little more value on the feet, and Pantoja has a little more on the mat. Royval throws wild spinning shit and swarms with long strikes and has wins over elite-level strikers Kai Kara-France and Matheus Nicolau, and both finishes were precipitated on the feet. This is a complete toss-up. When in doubt, roll with the dog. Brandon Royval via TKO, round three. Keep rollin’ rollin’ rollin’! Put that ish on wax.  

Props 

Pantoja: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+120) Dec (+650)  

Royval: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+650) Dec (+900) 

Winner: Brandon Royval | Method: TKO Rd.3

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-650) vs. Wonderboy (+460)

Shavkat: DK: $9.7k | Wonderboy: DK:$6.5k

Dancing Bear, Aka the Head Furry in Charge Shavkat Rakhmonov, is back. His name sounds like the guest of honor at a HoJo Furry convention, but don’t let that fool you; he’s the dark horse in the welterweight division and a guy nobody is signing up to fight. Nobody except Wonderboy. Wonderboy signed on the dotted line to fight two of the scariest MFs in the division, Michel Pereira and Shavkat. Periera went on to miss weight, and that fight will always be the one that got away. Wonderboy responded by accepting an even more difficult challenge. At forty years old, Wonderboy’s career is a race against the clock to earn one last title shot. If he fooks around and beats Shavkat, he could find himself in a title eliminator. This one right here is a style banger! 

Shavkat’s Rampart Division choke of Geoff Neal was one of the most violent acts I’ve seen inside the Octagon. It was so nasty it bordered on offensive. I have never seen a rear-naked choke like that; it was violent improv. Like Shavkat just thought of that shit on the fly like he was Biggie freestyling torture techniques on the corner with some neighborhood homies. At first glance, Shavkat’s stand-up looks fairly vanilla, devoid of any intricacy and fundamental footwork. But he’s slippery. Like trying to fish a piece of eggshell out of a bowl. Weird reference. But it’s like, every time you try to touch him, he just slides out of the way just enough to make you miss. He’s like congealed or some shit. Like not quite a solid but in between a solid and a liquid. And his strikes are impaling, stabbing pikes, especially his rear leg teep. That shit will turn your insides and last meal into a kabob sticking out the back of you. It’ll leave a Rita Hayworth Shawshank-sized hole in ya real quick. Shavkat's movement is upright and robotic, but he is oddly dexterous and athletic. He punctuates short combinations with standing knees that turn chonies brown like medium/high heat. The spectrum he travels is that of a huge Chito Vera, using all his weapons to create damage while systematically breaking you down. 

But Shavkat’s easiest path to victory is on the mat. I think Wonderboy’s wrestling is a little underrated. He gives up takedowns, but usually only to volume wrestlers like Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns. I don’t know how much Shavkat will commit to his wrestling, but his top control is heavier than guilt. It’s like sleeping with a weighted blanket and waking up with sleep paralysis. Panic sets in immediately. I don’t know if I’ve seen someone get back to their feet once Shavkat took them down. The only thing Shavkat has more of than wins by TKO/KO is wins by submission. He has a flawless record at 17-0 with a one hundred percent finishing rate with eight TKO/KOs and noine subs. He also averages four and a half SLpM and one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Shavkat is a Fantasy monster.  

What can I say about Wonderboy that you don’t already know. This guy is an ass-kicker extraordinaire. His style is an ode to 90s action films, Jet Li, Jackie Chan, Tony Ja, and all that. Wonderboy could have been in every DMX movie. This fight will be a battle of range and speed versus speed. Wonderboy is a master, maybe the best ever, at closing the distance. Wonderboy Raiden teleports into the pocket. He can get inside, deliver a four-piece combo, and get out before you even knew he was there. The snake charmer's lead hand, waving melodically in front of your face distracts, while Wonderboy leaps in with a quick reverse 1-2. Like a wrestler striker uses the power hand to cover distance, so does Wonderboy, but Wonderboy uses in/out movement to disguise it. 

Wonderboy can also stay on the outside and pepper with Metamucil, stool-softening side kicks. There’s nothing more frustrating than trying to engage, and every time you come forward, you get kicked in the chest or gut. Timing, speed, and deceit. That’s the Wonderboy holy trinity. He’s fast as f**k boy, has excellent counterstriking, and uses false entries to hide his attacks. And he does all this with a smile on his face. Hallmark should make Wonderboy sympathy cards. “Sorry you got your ass kicked. Hope we can still be friends. Yours truly...” 

The key for Wonderboy will be staying away from the cage. He likes to strafe along the warning track and use the cage to get back to his feet when opponents shoot on him, but Shavkat doesn’t use traditional level changes. He uses the cage to work trips. Wonderboy needs to force Shavkat to take him down in the center of the Octagon. If Wonderboy can keep it standing for significant stretches, he can win this fight. Although Shavkat is slippery, Geoff Neal landed massive bombs all night long. But Shavkat walked through all of them like the T-1000. Wonderboy may not have Neal’s power, but he has speed, and getting hit when you’re not expecting it can make up for power.   

Whoa! I don’t check the odds until I’ve finished the write-up, and I’m shocked like Marv. Shavkat is the (-600) favorite, and Wonderboy is the (+430) dog. This fight is much closer than the odds suggest. Especially if Wonderboy can stay upright. But that there is the reason for the odds. Shavkat’s ground game. It’s been a year since we’ve seen Wonderboy, but he’s coming off a destruction of Kevin Holland and looked as fast as ever in that fight. It was the best I’ve seen Wonderboy in a while. At the very least, his stand-up is worth dropping a Hamilton on him. If I had any cajones, I’d pick Wonderboy via Double Dragon helicopter kick... but I don’t. I think Shavkat gets this fight to the ground and grinds out the dub. I think Wonderboy can survive until the end, though. Shavkat Rakhmonov via decision. On wax. 

 Props 

Shavkat: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+120) Dec (+240)  

Wonderboy: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+4500) Dec (+800) 

Winner: Shavkat Rakhmonov | Method: Decision

Tony Ferguson (+245) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-310)

Tony: DK: $6.8k | Paddy: DK: $9.4k

Stay Hard! Only one man on earth can get away with saying that to another man in a gym. You know who he is. David muhfookin’ Goggins. And after being the first to survive David Goggins Hell Week, Tony Ferguson is rock hard. Tony switched shit up after six straight losses and went straight Navy Seals training, extreme cardio but more so cardio for the mind. Tony’s body will fatigue far before his mind will after doing burpees for forty-five minutes and pull-ups for two hours with a man yelling “Stay Hard!” in his face the whole time. I don’t know how it will translate in the Octagon, but it shows Tony isn’t showing up just for a paycheck. Paddy Pimblett is the perfect opponent for Tony at this stage of Tony’s career, and the only question is, will we hear “Stay Hard!” between rounds from the man himself? 

Tony the Tiger, Tony Gwynn, Tony Danza, Tony Stark, Tony Soprano, Tony Montana; even without another UFC win, Tony Ferguson is in the Tony Hall of Fame. He’s an enigma, a version of ourselves we believe is deep inside of us metamorphosed in the Octagon. Tony is an attitude, a feeling, an emotion. He represents the golden era, and fans live and die with Tony when he fights. Tony has shown he still has some sting in his punches; he wobbled my man Bobby Green and Michael Chandler. The biggest disappointment in recent years hasn’t been Tony’s stand-up as much as his grappling.   

On the mat, Tony used to be like trying to grab a porcupine. He would Ginsu your ass, julienne your ass like an infomercial gadget with elbows and make garnishes out of you. Tony used the rubber guard to tie you up from his back and drop bows on you like Ludacris. But lately, he has just been a victim on his back. Assailed, not the assailant. Paddy Pimblett will eventually try to get the fight to the mat, and Tony has to bring back the striking from his guard and force scrambles back to his feet. If he can keep it standing, I think he’ll chip away at Paddy and cause Paddy problems with his awkwardness. This is a winnable fight for Tony as long as he stays active from his back.   

Paddy Pimblett is the polar opposite of Tony Ferguson between fights. Paddy turns into Chris from Family Guy, balloons like the fat kid on Charlie and the Chocolate Factory who drinks from the Chocolate River. But come weigh-ins, he magically looks like he’s been training like Tony the whole time. Paddy is more or less a specialist. Like Aljo, Paddy is a back specialist. Doctor said I need a backeotomy. But unlike Aljo, Paddy doesn’t have takedowns. His best takedowns are being taken down. The referee, Chris Tognoni, has better takedown defense than Paddy. But Paddy is slick at getting back to his feet and reversing position. Paddy’s specialty is rear-naked choke modifications. He will latch on to the rear-naked figure-four from odd angles/positions and squeeze. 

On the feet, Paddy is a brawler. There’s no cohesion to his striking. It’s like a patchwork of single strikes stitched together like knockoff swap-meet clothing. He has excellent aggression, but he hangs his chin in the air like the star on a Christmas tree. Paddy has zero defensive prowess/instincts. I’ve never seen him react to a strike at all. His game plan should be to blitz Tony with heavy combinations and get Tony against the cage, where he can work trips. For his career, Paddy is 20-3 with six TKO/KOs and noine subs. Say what you say like Em and Dre, but this guy is a finisher. He also averages over four SLpM, while Tony averages five. Paddy’s Fantasy value will be in a submission finish and a moderate fifty to sixty significant strikes if it goes the distance.   

Paddy is the (-325) favorite, and Tony is the (+260) dog. Don’t sleep on Tony. Tony can fook around and catch Paddy on the feet, and Paddy is far from a takedown savant. If this fight stays standing, I think it will be a toss-up. Paddy will be aggressive early but fade late, and Tony won’t. Maybe it’s because I don’t want to picture Tony getting his ass kicked by a guy with a bowl cut, but I’m rolling with... No. I just can’t do it. I want to pick Tony, I really do, but... Paddy Pimblett via decision. Stay Hard! 

Props 

Paddy: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+225) Dec (+215)  

Tony: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+1200) Dec (+700) 

Winner: Paddy Pimblett | Method: Decision

Josh Emmett (+185) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-225)

Nomak: DK: $7.3k | Thug Nasty: DK:$8.9k

I woke up, and just before posting this, I found out Ian Garry had dropped his fight against Vicente Luque. So, the write-up will go into the vault to be unearthed by generations in the future as if discovering ancient artifacts in King Tut’s tomb. My apologies for not giving Mitchell vs. Emmett the full Weekly KO treatment that it deserves.  

There once was a Thug from a, thug from a, thug from around the way. Slim Thug, Young Thug, and Thug Nasty; the Thug Holy Trinity. Bryce Mitchell is back and stepping in on short notice to fight the only man to win a round against Blade, Nomak himself, Josh Emmett. This is the classic wrestler vs. striker matchup, and in many ways, just as interesting as the matchup with Emmett’s original opponent, Giga Chikadze.   

These guys are ass-kicked Peter-in-Laws, having both been trampled and gored by the Brahman bull Ilia Topuria in the mean streets of Pamplona, Spain. Now, instead of teaming up and confronting a common foe, they have been pitted against each other. Bryce Mitchell looks like a classic Jerry Springer guest, but instead of throwing chairs, he shoots double legs on everyone in the audience and makes Steve his Tony Yayo hype man as he blesses the viewers at home with hot a sixteen. Bryce is all grappling everything. It’s true; he once dropped Edson Barboza, but his striking is fairly amateur without the takedown threat. Thug Nasty’s path to victory is getting Josh Emmett to the mat and maintaining top control for the duration. Can he finish Emmett on the mat? It’s possible but not likely. Emmett has four career losses but only one by submission. Mitchell will likely have to keep going to the takedown well for the full fifteen minutes, which is a tough task even if your name is Khamzat Chimaev. 

Mitchell averages under two and a half SLpM and is more position over submission and creating damage. Thug is 16-1 for his career with noine subs and zero TKO/KOs, including 7-1 in the UFC. But he only has one finish in seven promotional bouts, which came back in 2019, five fights ago. Mitchell’s Fantasy value will be in takedowns (averages three and a half per fifteen minutes) and top control time, as he has never landed more than forty-six significant strikes in a three-round bout.   

Josh Emmett is being slept on here. I said the same thing when he fought Topuria, but there’s no shame in that loss as the win catapulted Topuria into a title shot against Volkanovski. Emmett is riding a two-fight losing streak, but his last two opponents were Yair Rodriguez and Ilia Topuria, Universal Soldiers, the elite of the elite. Emmett has faced the highest level of competition the division has to offer, and that experience will give him an edge against Mitchell. Emmett has Voltron shoulder missiles for hands and sets them shits on fully auto for the duration of the fight. On the feet, this isn’t a sanctioned fight. Emmett is the far more dangerous, technical, and efficient striker. If he can stay on his feet, this fight could look a lot like Topuria vs. Mitchell. 

But that there is the big question: Can Emmett stay on his feet? He rocks a forty-six percent career takedown defense, and that’s not a good look against a volume wrestler like Mitchell. But Emmett’s background is in wrestling; he’s a lot like Justin Gaethje in that they both started their MMA journeys as wrestlers before developing into deadly elite strikers. Emmett will likely end up on his back early, but I think there will come a time when Mitchell gets stranded on his feet, and Emmett will take over. Topuria took down Emmett three times, but Topuria has elite striking to supplement his takedowns. Mitchell doesn’t.   

Spoiler alert! Josh Emmett is one of my Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers. Even on short notice, Mitchell is the (-225) favorite, and Emmett is the (+185) live-ass dog. Bring ‘em out! Bring ‘em out! Bust out the Piso Mojado signs as Josh Emmett will be dripping value all over your freshly Swiffer’d floor. This fight is all Emmett if he can scramble back to his feet when Mitchell gets him down. Emmett will likely have to orchestrate a two-minute drill comeback late, but his power will translate until the final brick clap. Mitchell has to travel a Kit Carson path to victory, scoring takedowns and maintaining top control for the duration. If at any time Mitchell runs into a takedown wall, it will be Emmett’s time to shine. Cue that Rihanna: Shine bright like a diamond! The final main card pick of 2023 is a fookin’ dog. How else would I go out? Josh Emmett via TKO, round three. I can give it to ya, but what you ‘gone do with it? Put that shit on wax! 

Props 

Thug Nasty: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+350) Dec (+100)  

Emmett: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+1600) Dec (+500) 

Winner: Josh Emmett | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Josh Emmett (7.3k): Nomak is back after being gored in the keister and trampled in the streets of Pamplona, Spain, by the Brahman bull, Ilia Topuria. But don’t get it twisted like Jimmy Valmer’s legs; Josh Emmett is still a bomb-throwing heathen. Even in a complete blowout, Emmett fought until the bitter end and gave himself a chance at a Hail Mary into the endzone at the end of the fight. Emmett was originally set to face the former Glory kickboxer, Giga Chikadze, but now faces the late replacement Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell. Emmett will go from a striker vs. striker matchup to a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Although the stats are in Mitchell’s favor, don’t sleep on Emmett’s wrestling. Emmett rocks a forty-six percent takedown defense and was taken down three times in a five-round fight against Topuria, but Mitchell lacks the striking threat to set up his takedowns that Topuria has. Emmett will likely have to fight from his back early, but eventually, the takedown well will dry up, and Emmett will unleash some Hobgoblin hand grenades. Emmett’s power is Ralph Wiggum stupid and translates until the final bell. Emmett will dominate the standup and have a good chance to finish the fight as long as he can keep it standing for significant stretches.   

Brian Kelleher ($7.2): This reflects more of my distrust for Cody Garbrandt, Brian Kelleher’s opponent. After losing five of six bouts, Garbrandt has shown a dumbed-down version of his former self in recent bouts. He is quick to rely on his mediocre wrestling instead of the LA Looks hair gel and Bod Man cologne spray that got him to the dance. That’s because Cody doesn’t trust himself not to get drawn into a Back Draft firefight on the feet. Keller is a pocket fighter just like Cody and has the style to do exactly that, drag Cody into a firefight. Also, if Cody starts dancing that same old half step and starts to wrasslin’, Kelleher has a nasty guillotine that he can slap on and catch Cody slippin’. I like the chances for this fight to produce a finish, and Kelleher has a big upside as a finishing threat. For his career, Kelleher is 24-14 with eight TKO/KOS and ten subs.   

Muslim Salikhov ($7k): Kung Fu Panda, aka the King of Spinning shit, is back. This line is one of the most sus on the card. Salikhov is a (+210) dog to Randy Brown, who has been all but impressive in recent bouts. Brown is a long striker who creates problems with his range, but he plays it safe. Brown has that toy breed dog in him that people carry around in handbags wherever they go. He’s the Gregory Hines of half steppin’. Muslim will cause Brown all kinds of problems on the feet, not only with his constant spinning attacks but also with his power and ability to threaten with takedowns. Muslim is coming off a loss to Nicolas Dalby, but you already know how Dalby gets down. Dalby is a savage and much more dangerous than Randy Brown has become. Salikhov’s biggest problem will be closing the distance, but if he can consistently get inside with his Sentient Arm Morty left hand, he could finish Brown. Kung Fu Panda is a finisher with a 19-4 record, including thirteen TKO/KOs and three subs.  

$6k Bathroom Clearance Rack

Wonderboy ($6.5k): I never thought I’d see Wonderboy bringing up the caboose on the Fantasy roster train. But here we are. If Shavkat fooks around, fights with his ego, and decides to stand with Wonderboy, he will find out. Even at forty years old, Wonderboy's physical attributes have yet to show signs of fraying. It’s been a year since we’ve seen him, but against Kevin Holland, Wonderboy looked to still be in his prime. I give Wonderboy a chance to beat ANYbody in the division on the feet. His speed and constant stance switching befuddles opponents. You’ve never faced a striker like Wonderboy until you’re standing across the cage from Wonderboy. The big question is, can he avoid the clinch and stay on his feet? If he can force stand-up stretches, he can light up the scoreboard with significant strikes. In four rounds against Holland, Wonderboy landed one hundred sixty-three significant strikes and has the ability to eclipse one hundred in a three-rounder.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Cody Durden (+140): Tyler Durden’s brother is back, and if you don’t know, he’s a serious undercover sleeper. I never pick Durden fights correctly because I always underestimate him, while all he does is find ways to win. Dog? This guy is the dog humping all the other dogs in the dog park and even shows some human legs some love while he's at it. He’s 5-2-1 in the UFC and currently riding a four-fight winning streak. His opponent will be the slightly overrated Tagir Ulanbekov. Tagir is 3-1 in the UFC, but he has been the benefactor of a couple of close decisions. Ulanbekov lacks that SNES Killer Instinct and Durden doesn’t. Durden’s style is suffocating. He never gives up on wrestling, and his top control is stifling. People often sleep on Durden, and the next thing they know, Durden is getting his hand raised. Both fighters average over three takedowns per fifteen minutes, but Ulanbekov rocks a sixty percent takedown defense to Durden’s eighty. Also, Tagir tends to fade late, and Durden can crack your ass for fifteen minutes and pick up a ten-hour shift at the soap factory after.   

Josh Emmett (+185): Bryce Mitchell’s path to victory is taking down Josh Emmett and controlling the top position for fifteen minutes. I don’t see Mitchell finishing Emmett on the mat, and controlling someone for fifteen minutes is a tough task. Especially a guy like Emmett, who has faced the elite in the division, including Ilia Topuria, Kalvin Kattar, and Yair Rodriguez. I think all of those guys are more dangerous than Mitchell. If Mitchell gets stranded on the feet, nothing can save him. Emmett takes nothing but Home Run Derby hacks on the feet, and the stand-up will be a mismatch in Emmett’s favor. The key will be forcing scrambles back to his feet because Mitchell will get him down, especially early. I think there’s a ton of value in a late stoppage if Emmett can create damage in between Mitchell’s takedown attempts.   

Brandon Royval (+155): Royval will be fighting behind the eightball because Alexander Pantoja is a straight savage. But I thought Royval caused Pantoja problems on the feet with his pace and pressure, and with a couple of adjustments, he can wear down Pantoja and catch him with some wild shit on the feet. And don’t sleep on Royval’s grappling. He can catch Pantoja slipping, just like Pantoja caught Royval slipping in the first fight. I think the ol’ club-and-sub will be in play, similar to Royval’s win over Kai Kara-France. Royval hit Kara-France with a spinning back elbow and immediately snatched his neck, and finished with a guillotine. Royval is definitely a gamble, but wtf are we here for if not to gamble?   

Pick ‘Em 

Josh Emmett (+185) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-220) 

Winner: Josh Emmett 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Irene Aldana (-195) vs. Karol Rosa (+160) 

Winner: Irene Aldana 

Method: Decision 

Cody Garbrandt (-200) vs. Brian Kelleher (+165) 

Winner: Cody Garbrandt 

Method: Decision 

Casey O’Neill (-185) vs. Ariane Lipski (+155) 

Winner: Casey O’Neill 

Method: Decision 

Alonzo Menifield (+215) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-260) 

Winner: Dustin Jacoby 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Tagir Ulanbekov (-170) vs. Cody Durden (+140) 

Winner: Cody Durden 

Method: Decision 

Andre Fili (-175) vs. Lucas Almeida (+145) 

Winner: Andre Fili 

Method: Decision 

Martin Buday (-135) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+105) 

Winner: Shamil Gaziev 

Method: Decision 

Randy Brown  (-260) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+210) 

Winner: Musilm Salikhov 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy