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- Weekly Knockout (UFC) - UFC 297 Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Weekly Knockout (UFC) - UFC 297 Strickland vs. Du Plessis
UFC Cheat Sheet DFS & Pick'Em Picks
Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer
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Main Card
Sean Strickland (-125) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+110)
Strickland: DK: $8.2k | Du Plessis: DK:$8k
“Are there any questions from the challenger?”
A shake of the head.
“Are there any from the Champion?
A nod. “I’ll make a pact with you,” he said to the challenger. “With Dana as our witness, let us pledge that the winner will allow the loser all the proper funeral rituals.”
The challenger, eyes daggers forged by the fires of Hades, bore to the hilt in those of the Champion’s and would require a foot to the chest for leverage to pull them free, “There are no pacts between lions and men.” With that, he strapped on the only weapon he would need to his left forearm, the impenetrable shield said to be blessed by the kiss of Zeus himself, the one the people had begun to call the Philly Shell. ”You won’t have eyes tonight. You won’t have ears or a tongue. You will wander the underworld blind, deaf, and dumb. And all the dead will know this is Izzy, the fool who thought he could beat Sean Strickland."
No glove touch.
It was an Achilles vs. Hector ass-whoopin’. A scratch from a grazing broad sword across Strickland’s leather vest was the gist of the damage inflicted by the Champ that night. The break of Sean Strickland’s career was not finishing Izzy in the first round. Leave the door open an inch, and they will take it off the hinges to fit through all the excuses. As if doing what you have trained to do for decades was somehow a stroke of luck like striated clouds on a Bob Ross canvas. “Get up, Prince of Sydney. I won’t let a right hand take my glory. Get up!” Instead, Strickland prolonged the unthinkable, bound Izzy’s ankles, and dragged him across the desert behind a golden chariot as the Izzy sycophants looked on in horror, the appalling sight dissolving their eyes to liquid.
No, five rounds symbolized Lady Luck taking the walk of shame on her way out of the conversation. You don’t go to a Michelin restaurant and inhale your meal in two bites; you go and cut that shit into small pieces and dab at the corner of your mouth with a silk napkin after each bite and use words like delectable and exquisite when the waiter asks how everything was. Sean Strickland left the naysayers two things: Deez nuts and zero doubt. As a man who lives to dabble in hyperbole, I harbor none when I say it was the best title performance I have ever seen. It was as close as you can get in this sport to a flawless victory, and the difficulty level given the opponent was the equivalent of actually beating Mike Tyson in Punch-Out!!
But new years require new shit. And here we are with a second straight main-event rematch. The first fight in the stands at UFC 296 ended in a no-contest after fan interference brought the fisticuffs to a premature end. In the ten seconds it lasted, Sean Strickland landed more significant strikes than Colby Covington did in five rounds that night. Strickland walked away from the altercation unscathed as he did against Israel Adesanya, and as he does in every fight other than when he fought the current Light Heavyweight Champion, Alex Pereira.
In fact, walking away from hand and shin collisions unscathed is Sean Strickland’s special power. He’s like Daenerys emerging from the pyre without so much as a carpet burn. For the record, I was calling Strickland the Floyd Mayweather of MMA long before it was fashionable, and I took shit for it like Jalen Hurts’s pants.
Receipts
Speaking of shit, Sean Strickland could dodge shit if he were Amber Heard’s bed. He could dodge cocktails at a Cosby mixer. Against Adesanya, Strickland dodged one hundred seventy-seven strikes. How does he do it? Prescience. Sean Strickland smoked Spice Melange doobies backstage before making the walk; he knew everything Izzy was going to throw before he threw it. That, and the Philly Shell. But Strickland doesn’t use your grandpappy’s Philly Shell; he uses a hybrid shell that includes a lead hand frame and deflecting shots before they can get close to his head. Cue Chael Sonnen face to face with Wanderlei Silva, “I can’t let you get close!” A traditional Philly shell allows punches to get into the kill zone and uses the shoulders and a rear-hand parry to deflect. In addition, Strickland adds a lead hand frame that acts like Captain America’s shield to block punches, and he uses an occasional “X” hand guard. He creates an “X” with both hands in front of him and stifles punches before they can build any steam.
But Strickland’s version of the Philly Shell can be defeated. No fookin way! Yessir. Hooks and generally wide punches are Strickland’s kryptonite. Strickland’s defense is built to defeat straight punches, not round punches. That’s why he had success against Izzy and was KO’d by Pereira. When he extends his hands out in front, it leaves a path around his hands. Izzy throws straight down the middle, but Pereira has that nasty lead hook that circumvented Stricklands parries. And that there is the key to the Du Plessis matchup. Du Plessis throws wide punches, mostly hooks, and in a way, his punches are designed to beat Strickland.
The most shocked I’ve been in recent years was watching Du Plessis pound out Bobby Knuckles. This guy is like selling Bitcoin in 2013. I cancelled after the trial period, never bought Dricus Du Plessis as a real title contender after every one of his fights. Du Plessis is like Charles Oliveira; he almost loses every fight he wins. He catfishes the L. When they finally meet in public, Du Plessis tells the L he’s already in a relationship with a dub and breaks it off. L’s roll off him like water on a duck’s ass. Line him up in front of a firing squad and they’ll all miss. He has a knack for surviving and advancing. His cardio is highly suspect and is a big question mark entering a five-round title fight against a guy who would thrive in a 1920s no round limit boxing match. But he finds a way to push past fatigue. Every time.
Stand-up-wise, Dricus is dangerous because he is awkward. Awkward, like blowing up a public unisex bathroom, and when you come out, there’s a bad Betty waiting to use it next. He has a sneaky step-in jab (the one that dropped Whittaker), but he mostly throws wide punches. He’s a Draymond Green wild-ass striker. His punches are like ellipses; they travel in paths like particles orbiting an atom. Sometimes, being awkward is more dangerous than being super technical. And he doesn’t have a coherent cadence; he uses intermittent blitzes and three to four-punch combos. But his best path to victory isn’t on the feet.
It’s on the mat. Du Plessis mauled Robert Whittaker as soon as the fight hit the mat. This guy on top of you is like falling in the gorilla exhibit at the zoo. People just stand around and watch you get torn limb from limb while holding up a phone with an occasional courtesy scream here and there. He has vintage UFC ground and pound. The art of ground and pound isn’t dead, but its pulse isn’t very strong. This guy will sit in the half guard and hammerfist and elbow you six feet into the ground. Pound you like a stake. Fook the mount or taking the back; half guard is a dominant position for Du Plessis. Dricus averages nearly three takedowns per fifteen minutes, and his biggest advantage is in the top position. But Sean Strickland has better takedown defense than Rudolph's noses and antlers on minivans after Christmas. My neighbor’s Odyssey is still rocking that shit. Strickland has an eighty-four percent takedown defense and has only been taken down once since 2017 when Kamaru Usman took him down twice.
Fantasy-wise, Du Plessis is the higher-output striker. He averages nearly seven SLpM to Strickland’s nearly six. More impressive is Du Plessis’s finishing rate. Yep, he’s on that Cromartie spectrum. He’s 20-2 with noineteen finishes, including noine TKO/KOs and ten subs. Strickland is 28-5 with eleven TKO/KOs and four subs. Strickland will be the (-140) favorite, and Du Plessis will be a live dog, returning (+115). The bet either way is on a finish. The only bet for Du Plessis is a finish, but deciding between a TKO/KO and submission is tricky. A classic club-and-sub is definitely in the mix. And there’s a good chance this fight could look like Abusupiyan vs. Strickland. Strickland could slow play the early minutes and let Du Plessis gas before taking over in the mid to late rounds.
The main event-dub streak sits at three after Magomed Ankalaev left Johnny Walker slumped against the cage like a mob hit. The more I think about this one, the less confident I feel. This will turn out to be a more dangerous matchup for Strickland than the Izzy fight. I know that sounds crazy. But I think Strickland can stay on his feet and bide his time until Du Plessis slows down. And the more Du Plessis tries to wrestle, the quicker he will gas. Sean Strickland via TKO, round four. On wax.
Props
Strickland: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+1100) Dec (+300)
Du Plessis: TKO/KO (+215) Sub (+550) Dec (+1000)
Winner: Sean Strickland | Method: TKO Rd.4
Mayra Bueno Silva (-155) vs. Raquel Pennington (+135)
MBS: DK: $8.6k | Pennington: DK: $7.6k
Chito Vera thinks he’s slick. This title fight will be like a Juwanna Man remake, with Chito Vera going full deep fake face swap and trading places with Mayra Bueno Silva. On some Freaky Friday type-shit. Mayra Bueno Silva is an underrated savage and reminds me of a female version of Chito Vera. When it comes to cage warfare, Bueno Silva is damage over everything else, technique, fundamentals, all that shit. She brandishes weapons like the Punisher and declares war without congressional approval. You can take away her dub against Holly Holm and replace it with a no-contest, but you can’t take away the vacation home in Bali that I purchased after dropping an Andy Jack on her. Bueno Silva will be up against the women’s version of Jose Benevidez, Raquel Pennington. Pennington, aka the queen of split decisions, is a double OG with general stripes and is a perennial contender who is getting her second shot at getting over the championship hump.
Hip Hop Saved My Life, and Mayra Bueno Silva saved Ronda Rousey’s. In Mayra’s last bout against Holly Holm, Ronda lived vicariously through Mayra like Lupe Fiasco’s Daydreamin’, spying behind Mayra’s robot eyes. Keeping Mayra on autopilot ‘cause Ronda can't drive. Mayra finished Holly in the second round with a modified guillotine and won her third straight bout by submission. She did Holm like the Packers did the Cowboys. Bueno Silva is one of the most aggressive fighters in the bantamweight division, and her specialty is the clinch. She uses traditional Muay Thai elbows and knees and is savvy at achieving the position. She hides the clinch initiation behind her jab. Jab, Jab, then she shoots the jab past the head and grabs the back of the neck on the retraction like a grappling hook. Once in the clinch, it’s 1600s warfare, at close range, hand-to-hand. She ain’t using drones and hypersonic missiles to attack from half a continent away. No, this is maces, morningstars, and warhammers. This is stabbing mf’s with the bayonet when the bullets run out.
My first prediction for 2024: This will be the year of the overhand hammerfist. Like the low calf kick took over MMA in the last several years, the overhand hammerfist will do the same. Bueno Silva throws the standing hammerfist behind traditional hand combos, and it smashes through hand guards. She isn't a very technical striker and lacks advanced footwork, but Mayra makes up for all that with constant 90s slasher movie pressure and using all her limbs to inflict damage, much like Chito Vera. But Mayra’s specialty is on the mat. She lacks traditional takedowns, but she doesn’t need the top position to submit you. Of her seven career dubs (eight if you don’t take away the Holm sub) via submission, six came from the guard, including four armbars and one kneebar. Bueno Silva is the better finisher in this matchup, with eight of her ten career dubs coming via submission.
But Mayra’s area of expertise is also Raquel Pennington’s. She’s the MMA embodiment of the West Coast offense, chipping away in the clinch against the cage and slowly matriculating her way down the field. Pennington fights are subjective, like art. One man’s macaroni glued to construction paper drawing is another’s Banksy. But no matter how ugly her fights are, Raquel Pennington is an Al Davis “Just Win Baby!” representative. I say that to say this: I watched Pennington’s last fight against Ketlen Vieira, so you don’t have to. Hov did that! I took one for the team like a secret service agent. On some Kevin Costner saving Whitney Houston type-shit. Pennington is a grinder; she grinds you finer than keef. Ol’ sawdust-ass. She can snort you when she’s done with you.
But Pennington’s major malfunction has always been that she has no go-to weapon/technique. She’s like an X-Men whose special power is not having a special power. If she were a Mortal Kombat character, she wouldn’t have a Fatality or Babality. She’s good at everything but not great at anything. Pennington doesn’t have excessive speed, power, or athletic ability, but she has a way of hanging around and making every fight close. You won’t see her giving up forty-eight points after going 16-0 on her home field over the past two seasons. You won’t see her falling behind 27-0 in the first round of the playoffs as the number two seed. She makes it a game from bell to bell.
Fantasy-wise, the numbers are nearly identical. Both fighters average four SLpM and less than one takedown per fifteen minutes. But Bueno Silva is the better finisher; she’s a Mickey Knox Natural Born Killer, while Pennington only has five finishes in fifteen career dubs. In twelve career fights, Bueno Silva has yet to be finished, and Pennington has only been finished twice (one sub and one TKO/KO) in twenty-three pro fights. Bueno Silva will be the (-170) favorite, and Pennington will be the (+140) dog. Pennington’s path to victory will be staying on the outside and using her superior technical boxing skills to keep Bueno Silva from being able to get inside where she is the most effective. But I gotta ride with Mayra Bueno Silva; she’s my kind of savage. Mayra Bueno Silva via decision. On wax.
Props
Bueno Silva: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+165) Dec (+330)
Pennington: TKO/KO (+1800) Sub (+900) Dec (+200)
Winner: Mayra Bueno Silva | Method: Decision
Mike Malott (-400) vs. Neil Magny (+300)
Malott: DK: $9.3k | Magny: DK:$6.9k
Mike Malott is on the Canadian Mount Rushmore with GSP and Terrance & Phillip. And Neil Magny’s hairline goes further back than the last Cowboys NFC championship game appearance. This matchup is gatekeeping at its finest. After just three UFC appearances, Mike Malott may get the fast-track treatment if he beats Neil Magny, the graveyard shift gatekeeper at the Bridge of Death. You never know which version of Neil Magny will show up. The one who dropped a forty burger on the Rams and Seahawks, or the one who lost to the Cardinals and got mollywhopped by the Niners and Packers. Either way, we’ll find out if Mike Malott is the real deal or just a Hollywood Blvd. Patrick Bateman lookalike after this one.
Mike Malott looks like he rocks bathrobes in public. His everyday shoe is barefoot. He looks like he’ll whoop your ass, stuff you in the trunk of his Tracer, lock you in his cellar, and make you watch old VHS family vacation videos, “And this is Medieval Times. Do you see! Do you see!” But as I tell you, week in and week out, don’t let the looks fool you; Mike Malott is a well-rounded complete mixed martial artist. I thought Malott was just a solid striker with a boxer/Karate style, but it turns out that bathrobe has a black belt. And Malott has an eclectic arsenal of submissions to go with it.
On the feet, Malott has crispy hands and a versatile rear leg. He uses his rear leg like a trident to stab you with up-the-middle snap kicks. Mikey’s got a toe fetish; he stabs his toes in your belly and rearranges your insides like a new display at Ikea. In his last bout, Malott landed a snap kick on Adam Fugitt in the opening seconds, and Fugitt sprayed his chonies brown like the sprinklers sprayed blood in the club scene in Blade. Malott gutted Fugitt repeatedly and removed his spleen like an Urban Legend. Fundamental kickboxing is kicks-behind-hands and hands-behind-kicks. Malott punctuates hand combinations with round kicks and vice versa. It doesn’t seem like much, but it’s a day-one fundamental that is more often than not neglected. Last week, you saw Jimmy Miller landing nasty leg kicks behind his punches on his way to the most dubs in UFC history. Also, Malott has that bodywork like Pimp My Ride. Pimp My Insides. Malott attacks the body with hands and feets to open up head shots, and I ain’t talking modeling agencies.
On the mat, Malott has a smorgasbord of takedowns from traditional level changes to schoolyard trips in the clinch and a list of submissions longer than a BJ’s restaurant menu. It takes you forty-five minutes to get through that bish. If this guy gets a body lock on you, you’re gonna have a bad time. Malott is 10-1 for his career with a one hundred percent finishing rate, including four TKO/KOs and six subs. Output-wise, Malott averages over four SLpM and two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Only one of his three UFC bouts made it out of the first round. Malott can stand and bang with Magny, but his path to victory is on the mat, where Magny has been submitted six times in his career.
Cue that Pharcyde “Runnin.” Neil Magny’s hairline can’t keep runnin’, can’t keep runnin’ away. That shit’s running like a J. You can’t let an inexperienced smoker light that shit; you gotta know how to light it just right. We need a race between Stephen A.’s wig and Neil Magny’s. I keed, I keed. I love me some Neil Magny, but he seems to finally be passing his expiration date. He’s starting to get a little lumpy. In his last bout, Magny went straight WAG against Ian Garry. I wasn’t sure if Neil was there to fight Garry or... IDK, but I do know this: You’re a real adrenaline junkie if you’re still dropping duckets on Neil Magny. He’s like a poet without a muse, uninspired. But he’s still long and scrappy (on occasion) and has shared the Octagon with the best of the best in the division. If this were prime Neil Magny, Mike Malott might be in for a Gomer Pyle belted with bars of soap rude awakening.
At all costs, Neil has to avoid being on his back. Magny has decent top control but a prude bottom game. He just lies there checking the clock to see when it will be over. Mags needs to keep the fight standing and use his range and volume to keep Malott on the outside and unable to initiate takedowns. I like Neil’s chances if he can turn this into a straight-up kickboxing match. He doesn’t want to mix it up with this kid on the mat.
Malott will be the (-350) favorite, and Magny will be the live (+265) dog. Live, as long as someone rubs two sticks under Magny’s ass and lights a fire. I’ve seen his range cause trouble for countless fighters, and I’m not sure if Malott has the experience to deal with it if Magny uses it effectively. But I ain’t betting on that any more than I’m betting on the Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl before I die. Mike Malott via rear-naked choke, round two. Put that shit on wax.
Props
Malott: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+110) Dec (+450)
Magny: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+1800) Dec (+500)
Winner: Mike Malott | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2
Chris Curtis (-195) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+165)
Curtis: DK: $8.5k | Barriault: DK: $7.7k
This one should be an undercover grimy little banger of a scrap. Marc-Andre Barriault is a nasty road rage scraper. Your worst nightmare is honking the second the light turns green and Marc-Andre Barriault hopping out of the Sienna minivan in front of you. And Chris Curtis is a real-life Balrog with Big Bang power. And let there be light! If you see these two guys scrapping in the middle of the intersection, just leave them the fook alone. You don’t want to get caught in the fisticuffs trying to be a good Samaritan breaking that shit up. No, it’s best to watch this one from the safety of the back seat of your Tesla set on autopilot.
Marc-Andre Barriault is the type to get into a fight in the communion line. He’s rough like Brillo pads. He’s got velociraptor skin. Just rubbing against you, he leaves you feeling raw like the roof of your mouf when you eat Cap’n Crunch. He’s the type to flip you the bird with the thumb tucked in on some Stone Cold shit. There it is. He’s the Stone Cold of the UFC. He’ll crack your ass like a couple of Coors Light cans. When it comes to physical attributes, Barriault doesn’t have much. He has horse and buggy hand speed and Stephen A. hitting pads athleticism. But he’s got old man power, and he is only in his early thirties. Call him Nolan Ryan in the clinch; he’ll dig your ass out with uppercuts like Robin Ventura. He’s a phonebooth scrapper who likes to look you in the eyes and watch the life drain from you like the Terminator’s red eye winking out as it’s slowly being crushed to death.
The key for Barriault is range. Inside range. He has to operate in close quarters and trap Chris Curtis against the cage. If this stays at kickboxing/boxing range, Barriault will slowly get whittled down and chipped away. Impossible is the Cowboys winning another Super Bowl and taking Chris Curtis down. Curtis rocks a noinety-two percent takedown defense and once went twenty for twenty defending takedowns against the Jitz God, Rodolfo Vieira. But Barriault can use the clinch and old-school Randy Couture dirty boxing to distract and work trips. Barriault averages nearly six SLpM, and that’s because of his work in the clinch. For his career, Barriault is 16-6 with ten TKO/KOs and one sub. His Fantasy value will be in high significant strikes if the fight goes the distance. In his last two bouts, Barriault landed noinety-five and one hundred noine significant strikes.
Chris Curtis is like Sean Strickland’s little brother. His Philly Shell wants to be Sean Strickland’s soooo bad. But instead, Curtis uses the Deleware Shell, not quite the Philly Shell. His shell stops ten miles outside of the Philly city limits. He bought his Philly Shell used on eBay. Call him Boyd Juneweather. His Philly Shell often leaves Chris taking more shots than another Curtis, Curtis Jackson. Chris Curtis is the King of losing close fights because he tends to take a lot of clean shots and has severe lulls in activity. Also, he’s all hands, like onside kicks. All boxing everything. Curtis doesn’t use any weapons other than his fists. His major malfunction is that he tries to make every fight a boxing match instead of using a diverse attack. His next fight should be against Mike “Platinum” Perry in BKFC.
But Curtis has serious skills and Ralph Wiggum stupid power. Curtis stays on his toes like a midget at a urinal and is light on his feet. The natural bounce allows Curtis to move in and out of range smoothly while unloading nasty lead hooks and overhand lefts from the southpaw stance. Overall, he will be the more dangerous striker against Barriault and is the better finishing threat. Barriault has to wear you down, but Curtis can stop you with one punch. His hands are tranq darts that stop you dead in your tracks. Curtis is 30-10 for his career with seventeen career TKO/KOs and one reclusive sub. Output-wise, he averages nearly five and a half SLpM with a promotional high of one hundred noine against Rodolfo Vieira.
Chris Curtis is the (-175) favorite, and Barriault is the (+145) live dog. I think there’s a ton of value for Barriault as a mid/low-tier Fantasy option. If he can get inside consistently, he will take his pound of flesh and rack up striking stats along the way. This will be a battle of range and who can dictate their preferred distance. Barriault has the style to stifle Curtis’s power and make this a fight in the trenches where Curtis isn’t nearly as effective offensively. But in the end, I think Curtis will do just enough work on the outside and eke out a decision. He has a good chance to finish Barriault, but Barriault is a tough SOB. Chris Curtis via decision. Put that ish on wax.
Props
Curtis: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+1800) Dec (+140)
Barriault: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+1600) Dec (+400)
Winner: Chris Curtis | Method: Decision
Arnold Allen (+160) vs. Movsar Evloev (-200)
Allen: DK: $7.5k | Evloev: DK:$8.7k
Arnold Allen is a Jason Borne operative whose undercover status was blown when he walked through Dan Hooker like he was doing the slick back. I’m old enough to remember thinking “Hey” Arnold Allen was a wrestler. But it turns out this guy has some of the deadliest hands in one of the deadliest divisions in the UFC. I hate to bury the lead, but this is a bad, bad fight for Movsar Evloev, aka Frankie Edgar the generic version. Arnold Allen might fook around and score a perfect passer rating like Jordan Love in this one. Movsar Evloev has about forty-eight hours left before he can no longer call himself an undefeated fighter.
The Weekly KO OG’s know whenever I completely write off a fighter in elegant medieval script, they almost always go on to win the fight. Sixty percent of the time, they win every time. But this seems like a fight just to keep Arnold Allen busy. Evloev has serious skills on the feet and on the mat, but he usually has his wrestling to fall back on when he starts getting pieced up on the feet. And he gets pieced up a lot. And this is why: Naked pocket entries and passive exits. When he enters the pocket, his feet move before his hands, and he enters neked with no cover fire. He has voyeur pocket entries. And when he exits, he doesn’t step off at angles or roll off his punches; he exits straight back with his hands down. Then he gets clipped and starts shooting doubles.
Evloev’s only hope is getting the fight to the mat and using his ground and pound to steal rounds. But I don’t think he can get Allen to the mat consistently, and his striking without his wrestling is a six, like the Betty in the club you’ve been buying drinks for when the lights come on. And although Evloev is 17-0, he’s a decision factory. Detroit stamping. He has three career TKO/KOs and four subs but hasn’t finished a fight inside the Octagon in seven fights. Evloev averages four and a half SLpM to Allen’s less than three and a half, but most come from the top position.
But the biggest thing Evloev will have to overcome is Arnold Allen’s left hand. He throws his left hand like a javelin. Dan O’Brien decathlon type shit. Like Zeus throwing a fookin’ lightning bolt. Allen reminds me of a southpaw GSP. He’s not the crispiest combination striker, but he can put 1-2s and 2-3s together well and has an educated jab. Also, pay attention to his stance/posture. Arnold rolls his shoulders forward and retracts his head between them when he’s under attack. His shoulders act as a turtle shell. I got a turtle head pokin’ out! Arnold in a half shell. He also uses the long guard to thwart punches out in front and blunt forward pressure.
The only knock on Allen’s striking is that he’s a little rough around the edges. He’s missing the smoothness of elite strikers. But he has elite power. Also, Allen tends to reach with his jab, lifting his rear foot off the ground. He may get away with that against Evloev, but he won’t against the Emmett's, the Volk’s, and the Topuria’s of the division. And he didn’t get away with it against Max. But Allen finished that fight strong and won the fifth round against Holloway. A sixth-round would have been interesting. Allen’s power was starting to affect Max. Allen is 19-2 with seven TKO/KOs and four subs. Allen’s Fantasy value will be in a TKO/KO finish. I see him keeping the fight standing and eventually sitting Evloev down with that left hand.
WHOA! I’m shook, homies. I’m wondering if I’m missing something here. Let me double-check this... Nope. Evloev is the (-195) favorite, and Arnold Allen is the (+160) livest dog to ever go live. I thought Allen would be around (-300). The oddsmakers think Evloev will ride out Allen from the top position. Early in his UFC career, Allen was taken down frequently, including six times in one fight, but he hasn’t been taken down in his last seven fights dating back to 2018. I don’t doubt Evloev can score a takedown here and there, but I don’t think he can do it consistently for fifteen minutes. And Evloev does the Stanky Leg in nearly every fight. Mike Grundy had him nearly finished in the first round; I can’t imagine what that Allen left hand will do. You already know how I’m rolling. I couldn’t slap down my Andy Jackson fast enough. Arnold Allen via TKO, round two. Wax on, wax off.
Props
Allen: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+1000) Dec (+330)
Evloev: TKO/KO (+1100) Sub (+1400) Dec (-150)
Winner: Arnold Allen | Method: TKO Rd.2
Prelims
$7k Value Menu
Marc-Andre Barriault ($7.7k): In three of his last five wins, Barriault scored over one hundred significant strikes, including totals of one hundred forty-one, one hundred eighteen, and one hundred noine. In his most recent bout, he landed noinety-five, and the only win that didn’t result in topping one hundred was a first-round submission. The only way Barriault doesn’t light up the scoreboard is when he’s fighting a superior grappler like Fluffy Hernandez or a striker with high-level physical attributes like Chidi Njokuani. Chris Curtis has high-level power, which can/will cause Barriault problems, but if Barriault can dictate the range and tie up Curtis, he will rack up significant strikes in the clinch and possibly on the mat if he can work a trip or two. This dude is an oft-slept-on slow lumbering grinder on a two-fight dub streak and three of his last four.
Arnold Allen ($7.5k): This is crazy. I’m in Bizarro World. I’m in the Twilight Zone when the bad Betty was considered an eyesore by all the pig-faced inhabitants of a strange world. I’ve double and triple-checked my work, and I still can’t come up with an answer that matches the solution in the back of the book. Arnold Allen may be the most slept-on since Rip Van Wink in this matchup. I think his left hand will have something to say about being the (+165) dog in this fight. Every time I check the odds, Arnold seems to fall another five points. I don’t get it, but Arnold’s upside is massive. He doesn’t light up the scoreboard with punching stats, but all he needs is to land that Zeus lightning left hand or left high kick once, and it's a wrap for Evloev, who tends to bust out the cardboard and boombox and do a little ditty after getting rocked in every fight. You don’t wanna ride the Arnold Allen lightning, trust me. Allen’s upside is a finish, and I don’t see a path to a finish for Evloev; he will have to ride out top control for fifteen minutes.
Sean Woodson ($7.2k): The human hieroglyph is back. Sean Woodson is built like a caveman drawing, and he has continental flight hand speed; his hands lose three hours by the time they reach the target. His hands woke up in Tokyo. But don’t let any of that fool you. Dude is a scrapper and longer than the line for refunds outside the Cowboys box office after losing to the Packers. More than size and power, and other than speed, length is the toughest disadvantage to overcome. Woodson averages about five and a half SLpM with a takedown defense of eighty-three percent. He has the tools to keep the fight standing against Charles “In Charge” Jourdain and make this a crunchy lil’ stand-up banger. I’m picking Jourdain to win, and he’s a big sub-threat, but Woodson can hang around, work the body, and score some respectable significant strikes in the sixty to seventy range, even in a loss. HE could even fook around and win the fight if he can keep the fight at his range on the outside.
$6k Consume Withing Twelve Hours Clearance Rack
Priscila Cachoeira ($6.7k): This isn’t the week to be scraping the bottom of the barrel; your two choices are Neil Magny and Priscila Cachoeira. Both fighters will likely end up on their backs in their respective matchups, but Cachoeira has something that Magny doesn’t, Lloyd Christmas and Harry Dunne stupid power. In 2022, I cashed in on a (+600) TKO/KO prop when Cachoeira scored a first-round TKO against Ariane Lipski. She takes nothing but Sammy Sosa and Mark McGuire home run hacks and will keep swinging until the final bell. Her opponent will be Jasmine Jasudavicius, who will have a massive wrestling/grappling advantage, but if Cachoeira can shake off a takedown or two here and there, she is far more dangerous on the feet than Jasudavicius. Cachoeira’s upside is a TKO/KO finish, but she is all or nothing. If she can’t detonate a bomb between being taken down, she is likely to get shut out.
Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers
“Hey” Arnold Allen (+165): Get him while he’s hot. There’s nothing more I can say about this guy. He has a championship-contending upside, and I think he’s the better fighter in this matchup. His striking is getting more dangerous in every fight, and his left hand is the single deadliest weapon of either fighter. Arnold can finish Evloev, but I don’t think Evloev can finish Allen or take him down consistently for fifteen minutes. I expected Allen to be the favorite in this matchup. I feel like De Niro in Heat, like I’m robbing the Brink’s truck in Dead Presidents, swooping Arnold Allen at plus money in this matchup.
Ramon Tavares (+150): This is a rematch from a fight that was stopped prematurely on the Contender Series. Tavares was getting him some in the stand-up before he got caught feeling himself and got dropped. He was far from finished, but the ref jumped in too soon. Tavares was invited back to the show and scored a thirty-second TKO in a crazy firefight while it lasted. Tavares is all offense and zero-point-zero defense, but he cracks like Parks & Rec toilet paper. His opponent, Serhiy Sidey, is more technical and will have the advantage in the latter rounds, but Tavares’ uber aggression is a lot to handle early. Tares is 9-2 with eight finishes, including five TKO/KOs and three subs. This one should be filled with coin flip exchanges and won’t likely go the distance.
Dricus Du Plessis (+110): Du Plessis may dip into the negative or return even money by fight night, but at plus money, he has a ton of value. His wide hooks and overhands are built to thwart the famous Strickland Philly Shell. Strickland’s defense is built to stop straight punches, but his kryptonite is round punches that travel around his parries. Also, if Du Plessis can get Strickland to the mat, especially early, he could make Strickland look like Bobby Knuckles did when Du Plessis got the top position. Du Plessis has Donkey Kong ground and pound and averages over two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. The big question mark is Du Plessis’s suspect cardio, but if he short-plays this and goes for broke with his wrestling, he can shock the world. I think this will turn out to be a more dangerous fight for Strickland than Izzy was. And I think Strickland might be sleeping on Du Plessis as I have since Du Plessis’s debut.
Pick ‘Em
Brad Katona (-190) vs. Garrett Armfield (+160)
Winner: Brad Katona
Method: Decision
Charles Jourdain (-185) vs. Sean Woodson (+155)
Winner: Charles Jourdain
Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.2
Serhiy Sidey (-175) vs. Ramon Tavares (+150)
Winner: Ramon Tavares
Method: TKO Rd.2
Gillian Robertson (-260) vs. Polyana Viana (+200)
Winner: Gillian Robertson
Method: Arm Triangle Rd.2
Yohan Lainesse (-150) vs. Sam Patterson (+120)
Winner: Sam Patterson
Method: Guillotin Rd.2
Jasmine Jasudavicius (-375) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+290)
Winner: Jasmine Jasudavicius
Method: Decision
Malcom Gordon (-200) vs. Jimmy Flick (+160)
Winner: Malcolm Gordon
Method: Decision
Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.
About Me
My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.
I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.
In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy