Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Alexander Volkanovski (-125) vs. Ilia Topuria (-105)

Volk: DK: $8.2k | Topuria: DK:$8k

So you wanna be a UFC superstar / and live large, a big house/ five cars, you’re in charge / Coming up in the world, don’t trust nobody / Gotta look over your shoulder constantly.  

Heavy is the head...  

We’re not in Pamplona anymore, Ilia.  

... that wears the crown.  

Hope you’ve been doing shoulder raises and stacking Olympic plates on top of your dome like Red Panda at an NBA Finals halftime show. Lest you turn into an ostrich real quick, a drone reading the NY Times with CNN playing in the background, in other words, lest you find your head stuck in the sand. My man, Ilia Topuria, has been walking around big headed like an NBA Jam cheat code. Like an Island of Misfit Toys Conor Mcgregor stranded on an isle of self-righteousness. 

S.O.S. 

Too late. Nothing but chemtrails overhead, never a downward glance. Put the sunshade down; what is that glare?  

Ilia’s mouth has been on a spending spree, “Charge it to the game.” But now it’s the end of the month and look at that interest rate! Late fees. Knock, knock... It’s time to pay up. Final Notice. Next step: Fight purse garnishment. No one can run from the MMA Revenue Service, Ilia.   

But it will be the fans providing the receipts on Saturday night. I was supposed to be in attendance in Anaheim for UFC 298, but then I saw the tickets were five hundo a pop... So chonies and chanclas and a laptop it is homies. If I had to tell you this main event is a banger, you probably wouldn’t be reading this shit. But just in case, this is a banger! Ilia Topuria has been poppin’ shit, bumpin’ gums up a category-five storm. You can write Mac Life across the belly, but that don’t make you Conor. Don’t get me wrong: Shit talkers recognize shit talkers. I live in a dumpster like Oscar the Grouch, sifting through scraps and salvaging trash to talk. But trash talk plays a big role in the fight game, not because it’s added motivation for the opponent, but because of the pressure it places on the one talking shit. You think in between rounds, when Leon was piecing him up, Colby wasn’t envisioning the memes coming his way? 

“I don’t give a f**k!” 

The first sign that you do.  

Colby could hear the collective clicking of mouses, the clacking of keys coming from all the Photoshop dweebs from all over the world. He looked like that sweating Jordan Peele meme in that bish. But maybe Ilia is special, a generational talent, and he knows something we don’t.  

The Running of Ilia, as it’s called when Ilia Topuria runs rampant in the cage, is becoming a blockbuster, red chonie night event. When Ilia gets to goring and trampling you, Pennywise wouldn’t even jump in that MF to save you. Ill-ia, aka Illmatic, aka Iliadelph Halflife. One day, when he retires, they’ll have to shut him down like a nuclear reactor, waiting thirty years for radioactive contamination to decay. Topuria reminds me of a travel-size Arman Tsarukyan with a Chuck Liddell overhand right. Dude is all power and a literal bull running over anyone set across from him in the cage.    

Topuria is a boxer on the feet with a kill switch in his right hand. His overhand travels twelve to six, obliterating any and all guards. It hacks downward at you like a bathroom door at the Overlook Hotel. “Here’s Ilia!” He likes to set it up with a liver shot; it naturally brings the lead shoulder lower than the rear one. That provides the arm angle for the overhand. The liver shot-to-overhand right is Ilia’s special move. The liver shot is the perfect wingman; it brings the hands down, and the overhand behind it closes the deal. Also, Ilia’s punches have a natural curve that travels around the guard, landing on the temples and ears, dizzying shots. Overall, “Tempura” Topuria has crispy boxing, and his power leaves fighters looking like abstract versions of themselves. Like grotesque Picasso’s with noses and eyes misshapen and out of place. People have to rub their chins, contemplate, and offer an interpretation of you after a fight with Ilia Topuria.   

But Ilia debuted in the UFC as a wrestler, out grappling an excellent grappler, Youssef Zalal, on short notice. In five fights since, Ilia hasn’t needed his wrestling/grappling. He has just been knocking people out. In any fight, it’s always a good idea to at least establish the threat of the takedown. Add another variable to the equation. Ilia has the presence on the feet to set up level changes and steal close rounds, even against a guy like Volkanovski with excellent takedown defense. The game plan for Ilia is to show no respect. Don’t get cold feet now. Put Volk on his back foot like Makhachev did and stay in his chest. Cut the cage and make every second anxious and uncomfortable.  

Alexander Volkanovski is going to roll into the Octagon rocking a white rhinestone-studded romper, snakeskin pointy boots, and a little pencil mustache twisted at the ends like a J with a little red tablecloth folded over his forearm like an Olive Garden waiter. Volk will “Olay!” and stick Ilia like acupuncture with little spears with every pass until Ilia’s legs eventually give out and he bleeds to death (figuratively). Then drive out that bish:  

Drive Carefully  

Come Back Soon 

With Ilia’s horns mounted on the hood of a candy-painted El Doe. The man needs no intro. He is legend. He is the man who took Islam Makhachev to the brink of defeat and attempted to exact revenge on short notice. Volkanovski is the CEO of Life’s A Risk, Carnal Inc. Where is Volk since losing to Makhachev the second time? The same place he would have been if he hadn’t taken the fight. And he’s still standing here screamin’ f**k the Free World! Don’t ever try to judge him, dude. You don’t know wtf he’s been through! But he knows something about you... Ilia went through Josh Emmett, not Yair or Max, to get here. Volk has fought Ilia’s before. But Ilia hasn’t fought a Volk.   

Volk will have to fight power with speed and movement. Forward and backward: The only directions Topuria moves. He pressures, retreats, or stays in the pocket and same-time counters. Volk has to draw out the big movements with feints and lateral movement. Ilia will want to extend combos in the pocket and lure Volk into a firefight. But Volk has to resist the temptation. Last week, we saw the jab defeat power shots when Jack Hermansson used a well-timed jab to slowly chip away and dismantle Joe Pyfer. Volk should copy and paste, straight plagiarize Hermansson’s game plan. Attack the legs and attack with short, quick combos. Topuria has the one-punch power, and Volkanovski has the speed and volume to stop the fight with accumulative damage. Also, Volk has to have an answer for Topuria’s jab. Volk, Ila’s hand falls to his waist after every jab. Every time. Volk has to have a counter, a right over the top, or slip and rips.     

The numbers: Ilia Topuria is 14-0 with four TKO/KOs and eight subs and averages four and a half SLpM to Volk’s six. Both guys average around two takedowns per fifteen minutes, but Ilia rocks a noinety-two percent defense to Volks seventy percent. Ilia landed one hundred fifty-two significant strikes in his only five-round scrap against Josh Emmett. And Volk has landed over one hundred significant strikes six times and over two hundred twice. Two fookin' hundred. Volume vs. Power. Odds-wise, this is basically a pick ‘em with both fighters returning (-110). I like Topuria’s chances for a finish more than Volk’s, and I can see both eking out a decision, Topuria with big moments (possible knockdowns) and Volk with higher activity. Fantasy-wise, barring a quick finish, bofa deez guys are gonna put NBA All-Star game points up on the board.   

The main event winning streak didn’t streak at all like it was hit with a bottle of Windex. Last week, Jack Hermansson put on a Master Class on using range against Joe Pyfer. I thought that one was a toss-up only to be hit with a literal one this week. As I’m typing, I still don’t know who I’m picking... I don’t like the added pressure Ilia has heaped on top of himself, but he definitely has the skills/attributes/talent to back up every word, every syllable. And he could be catching Volkanovski at the right time... But Alexander Volkanovski has that Tell-Tale Heart, beating under the floorboards type-shit. Alexander Volkanovski via decision. On wax.

Props 

Volkanovski: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+1400) Dec (+240)  

Topuria: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+450) Dec (+400) 

Winner: Alexander Volkanovski | Method: Decision

Robert Whittaker (-250) vs. Paulo Costa (+200)

Whittaker: DK: $9k | Costa: DK: $7.2k

“... and Dricus is a Lavar Ball speak-it-into-existence fighter whose skills don’t justify sharing the Octagon with Bobby Knuckles.” Needless to say, Dricus Du Plessis went on to serve me a full buffet of my own words prepared one hundred different ways, inspired by cultures from around the globe. He even let me take home a doggie bag. I still have leftovers in my freezer next to a slice of my wedding cake. Before the Robert Whittaker fight, I shat on Dricus Du Plessis like I was Vince McMahon. I wrote off Du Plessis in flowing medieval script, not necessarily because I thought Du Plessis was a TLC scrub but because of my affinity for Robert Whittaker, aka Bobby Knux. Robert Whittaker still remains a top-three middleweight of all time, and if he can somehow, someway find his way back to the title, he could leapfrog Anderson’s career in my mind.    

But that won’t be easy. What is easy is writing-off Paulo Costa as a stereotypical 90s movie jock who uses his size to bully people. But Costa is an undercover savage, at least when he actually shows up to the fight. Much like the main event, Bobby Knux will have to make this a speed vs. power matchup. Before getting dropped and subsequently finished in the second round, Whittaker looked to be on top of his game against Du Plessis. The speed was still there, and the low peripheral arm angles and dart punches were still there. Bobby uses a hybrid Karate/traditional kickboxing style, and in/out movement is the staple of his technique.  

Like a Wonderboy (who Bobby lost to at welterweight years ago), Bobby can get in and out of the pocket so quickly you don’t even realize he was there. You just notice shit missing or slightly out of place, not quite how you remember leaving them. That’s that phrogger speed. Supplementing his speed are Bobby’s arm angles. He punches from his waist like he flipped the world upside down and made it rain upward. On top of speed, Bobby hides his strikes below eye level and keeps opponents' heads ringing. Ring ding dong, ringitty ding-ding dong. You just see heads bobbing up and down, snapping back like fender benders. When it comes to special moves, Bobby has one of the dopest. He has the best cross-to-rear high kick I’ve ever seen. The timing is such that it looks like Bobby is defying the laws of physics and throwing a same-side right hand and right kick at the same time and just hovering in place. In nearly every fight, Bobby catches the opponent with this technique and sets up a potential fight-ending sequence.  

The keys for Whittaker will be using his speed from the outside to stay away from Costa’s power and mixing in timely takedowns off his striking. Costa is a mother-shut-your-mouf to take down, but Whitty has excellent level change set-ups; he puts together a quick two-punch combo and ducks behind them. Before the Dricus fight, Bobby hadn’t lost to anyone not named Stylebender in noine years. Fantasy-wise, Whittaker is surprisingly the lower output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM to Costa’s six and a half. But Whittaker keeps a more consistent pace, whereas Costa tends to fight with intermittent blitzes. Can he finish Costa? Costa is 14-2 and was only finished once by Izzy. Whittaker will likely have to pitch a complete game to secure the dub.   

Paulo Costa is the star of The Real Housewives of UFC, getting faded off box wine and talking heaps of shit at the after-shows. But he’s built like Conan and will whoop your ass with his pinky up. Costa’s best attribute is also his biggest detriment; he never knows what he’s going to do next. He doesn’t even know if he’ll show up to the fight when he’s warming up backstage. He’s unpredictable and explosive as fook. On the feet, Costa is a classic Gus Fring striker, using only the right side of his body as if the left side were blown off by a bomb underneath Hector Salamanca’s wheelchair. The left side of his body is just for aesthetics like the hand towels wifey doesn’t let you use lest you find yourself sleeping in a couch cushion fort in your living room. Costa has a Minecraft head and an American Dad chin; in his last fight, Costa ate massive left hands from Luke Rockhold like they were hors d’oevres. 

Costa is built like the original UFC logo and has event horizon power. “And let there be light!” power. He’s mostly a wrestler striker without the wrestling; Costa uses basic 1s, 2s, and 2-3s with occasionally right-round kicks and not much else. His style is that of a quarter-mile dragster built for speed in straight lines and only gets five mpg on the highway. He’s a gas guzzler. That weird girl with the ugly name who protests global warming always shows up at Paulo Costa fights. Costa tends to gas heavily but always pushes through and stays busy even when his tank is on E. Sometimes his scraps look like someone charged the mound at a Beer League game, but this dude remains one of the most dangerous strikers in the division.  

Whittaker will be the (-220) favorite, and Costa will be the (+180) live-ass dog. As is the case with Topuria fighting Volkanovski, Costa might be catching Whittaker at the right time, at the downside of his career, and coming off a nasty TKO loss. For all the antics and weird shit, Paulo Costa is a fookin’ dawg. Dog Pound like Kurupt & Daz, like the Cleveland Browns. This dude throws bombs and doesn’t give a fook about asking questions later. I like Paulo’s chances of scoring a finish more than I like Whittaker’s chances. There’s a ton of value on Costa, and this is a good time to take a dog, but I’m just hoping Whittaker still has something left in the tank, and his speed will be the difference in the end. I think this could look a lot like the Whittaker vs. Yoel fights. Robert Whittaker via decision. On wax.   

Props 

Whittaker: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+1100) Dec (+110)  

Costa: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+2000) Dec (+650) 

Winner: Bobby Knuckles | Method: Decision

Ian Garry (-240) vs. Geoff Neal (+180)

Garry: DK: $9.1k | Neal: DK:$7.1k

First off, the only Gary I know is Bababooey. Second off, never trust lower-back tattoos, especially when they’re on a man’s ankle. After several pilot episodes, the series premiere of Everybody Hates Garry is set for this Saturday night against Geoff Neal. Many men, many, many, many, many men, wish death upon Ian Garry. He’s quickly become your most hated fighter’s most hated fighter. He seems to rub people the wrong way, like butt cheeks in the summer. Fortunately, for those praying for his downfall like Biggie, he’s fighting Geoff Neal instead of Vicente Luque. Beware of Jeff’s, who spells their name Geoff, and Gary’s, who spells their name Garry. This should be an absolute banger and will, once and for all, determine if Ian Garry is a true contender.   

The Ian Garry hype is real, but I’m not buying it. I’m canceling after the seven-day trial period. It’s not because he lacks the skills. It’s because he fights like this is a sport and not a fight. Someone has yet to make it a fight for Garry inside the Octagon. He’s a Westminster dog with poodle fur manicured like topiary animals. He ain’t ready for that Best-In-Class Michael Vick dog category. Garry is the type to brush his teeth with his eyes closed. Mrs. Machado cuts the crust off his bread and prechews his steak. Garry’s the type to sleep in onesie pajamas with star projections on the ceiling. He lacks that primal instinct that special fighters have and mediocre fighters don’t.  

Garry’s stand-up passes the eye test. He has punctual strikes with thread-the-needle hands. He has archery hands and can hit a bullseye from six football fields away. And his rear leg is a Swiss Army knife that he uses for teeps and round kicks. Garry beats you with speed, range, and accuracy. But he doesn’t like to trade punches. He doesn’t want to get caught in the pocket extending combinations. When the punches are flying in the trenches, Garry flinches like it’s his first day on the front lines. Also, his strikes are too long for trench warfare; he needs distance to control the pace and engage on his own terms.    

Garry is 13-0 with seven TKO/KOs and one sub, and he averages over six and a half SLpM to Neal’s just below five and a half. Garry is a single-punch striker, a beat off from being a combination striker. He attacks mostly with 1s and 1-2s but leaves little dead air between engagements. Garry’s Fantasy value will be in high significant strikes with the likelihood of eclipsing the one hundred strikes mark if the fight goes the distance. And although Neal has only been finished once in the UFC, he has been in all out wars lately and can get got on the feet. Garry’s upside is a TKO/KO finish, but more than likely he’ll have to avoid Neal’s power for a full fifteen minutes.    

That Geoff Neal left hand just hits different. Never forget the time Geoff Neal ran over The Bare-Knuckle King, Mike “Platinum” Perry, like Suge Knight in a pickup truck. It was up there with Khalil Rountree’s TKO of Karl Roberson as one of the most violent minutes in UFC history. Neal reminds me of a southpaw Justin Gaethje; he has short hooks and overhands and will take three to give one. His left hand is like the Independence Day spaceship beam that destroys New York City. It’s like an anti-matter ray gun that eviscerates from the inside out. But Neal’s secret weapon is his left leg, which he doesn’t throw nearly enough. The left-round kick is what set off the Mike Perry destruction. When he lets his kicks go along with his hands, Geoff Neal is a scary MF. MF Doom. But this is only true in the first and third rounds. 

The Curious Case of Geoff Neal. Second rounds are his kryptonite. He uses PTO time for second rounds. Neal should just automatically concede the second round and just go straight to the third. IDK what it is, but he disappears in second rounds. Goes from 100 to 0 real quick. He just freezes like Mitch McConnell at a podium. He always has to go into a two-minute offense and mount a third-round comeback. If third-round Geoff Neal shows up for the entire fight, we’ll find out what type of dog Ian Garry is. That Lady and the Tramp RomCom dog or that licensed to kill San Francisco Black Mirror police dog. 

Ian Garry will be the (-225) favorite, and Geoff Neal will be the (+185) LIVE dog. Bring ‘em out! Bring ‘em out! Bust out the Piso Mojado signs. Geoff Neal will be flooding your basement with value like East San Diego. Ian Garry is about to get hit like a man for the first time in his career. He could mess around and lose one of those R’s. He could be a regular Gary after this one. Geoff is one of those guys who has different versions of himself, and you never know which one will show up. But he’s coming in off the best performance of his career in a loss to Shavkat. Neal gave Shavkat the toughest fight of Shavkat’s career and had multiple chances to win that fight. If THAT Geoff Neal shows up again, Geoff Neal will win this fight. Fook it! I’m gonna walk the dog. Geoff Neal via TKO, round three. Put that ish on wax. 

 Props 

Garry: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+800) Dec (+140)  

Neal: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2200) Dec (+650) 

Winner: Geoff Neal | Method: TKO Rd.3

Merab (-225) vs. Henry (+185)

Merab: DK: $8.6k | Henry: DK: $7.6k

This one is a first-name-only matchup. Merab fights are like the classic Keanu Reeves movie Speed. If Merab ever slows down and doesn’t shoot at least ten double legs per minute, he will spontaneously combust. Merab is MMA’s Tim Wakefield, a knuckleballer who you can’t prepare for because there is nobody else like him to train with. He’s a live-action Clay Guida in his prime who weaponizes cardio and pushes the heaviest pace in the UFC. And Henry is the Triple Champ, an Olympic gold medalist, and a two-division UFC Champion. Henry came off the Ikea futon to fight the former Champ, Aljo, after a three-year layoff. He was the dude on the couch who none of your roommates seem to know. This fight is one of the best matchups you can make in a stacked division chock full of dope matchups.   

Merab was built by NASA; he could withstand re-orbit. He has an amoeba’s durability and can withstand nuclear winter without a fallout shelter. Merab fights like the zombies in Call of Duty, multiplying infinitely while you board up the windows of your safe house. When you fight Merab, it’s like you’re fighting ten-on-one. He moves so much, constantly peppering punches and kicks and level changing and circling and gyrating that you think he’s got you surrounded. He’ll have you thinking the hills have eyes. This muhf**ker attempted fifty takedowns in his last fight against Petr Yan. He was only credited with landing eleven (only), but he was basically using level changes like jabs. He shot more takedowns than most fighters throw punches. Merab’s top control isn’t very good, and his takedowns aren’t even elite, but he uses volume. Merab doesn’t give a fook if an attempt is successful or not; he just wants to make you burn energy defending it.   

Merab might be the least sexy Fantasy monster. You wouldn’t think his style adds up much, with all the failed takedowns and whatnot, but he averages four and a half SLpM and six and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Against Yan (five rounds), Merab landed one hundred forty-seven significant strikes and eleven takedowns with nearly seven minutes of control time. Ain’t that some shit? But Merab’s major malfunction is finishing fights; he is 16-4 for his career with only three TKO/KOs and one sub. In eleven career UFC bouts, Merab only has one finish. That’s that whiskey shots and blunts finishing rate. Against Henry, Merab will just have to be Merab and push a wild pace that gasses Henry by the end of the first round. Henry will have his hands on his knees after the glove touch.   

Cringy Cejudo, aka the host of Cringe Factor is back. But is he really? I just read that Henry is contemplating retiring for a second time if he loses this fight. He’s got one ass cheek out the door already. He’s like the homie sitting next to the exit when someone stands up during the movie, ready to dip at any moment. Being halfway committed is never a good thing when your opponent is a rabid hyena, a fookin’ scavenger willing to fight a pack of lions for a taste of gold. Especially when you left the sport for three years to play minor league baseball for the trash pandas and came back rocking 4-5 on your jersey. But Henry is still an elite athlete and world-class wrestler. He also still eats free at restaurants and wears 5T fight shorts.   

Henry’s style is that of a chameleon. He sheds his skin like a snake between fights. Sometimes, he’ll come out in a bladed karate stance like a refurbished Conor McGregor, and sometimes, he’ll come out in a more squared boxer/wrestling stance. He’s a staunch 1s and 1-2s striker who rarely extends combinations and relies defensively on in/out movement. Before his hiatus, Henry used fast Wonderboy-like blitzes to get in and out, but against Aljo, he looked like he was fighting underwater. He looked off, almost like watching him in black and white. Bring back technicolor Henry. Against Merab, Henry needs to get out of his comfy zone and get to third and fourth-level punches and extend combinations. Merab can get got on the feet, and Henry has the overall better striking. But he has to keep Merab on the defensive and not allow him to dictate the pace to his liking.   

Fantasy-wise, Henry averages just under four SLpM and two takedowns per fifteen minutes. Before retiring in 2020, Henry was riding a three-fight finishing streak that included Dominick Cruz, T.J. Dillashaw, and Marlon Moraes. For his career, Henry is 16-3 with eight TKO/KOs and zero subs. Henry will have a better shot at scoring a finish, but Merab has only been finished once. The play for both fighters is a decision. Merab will be the (-185) favorite, and Henry will be the (+160) dog, a role he isn’t used to playing. This is a toss-up in my book. It’s possible that Henry knocked the rust off in his last bout, and we will see a quicker/faster Henry this time. He doesn’t have to go strike-for-strike with Merab (that’s impossible), but he has to commit to combinations when he does find an opening and attack Merab’s legs like Henry did against Dominick Cruz. But I like the more active fighter who just pitched a perfect game against Petr Yan. Merab via decision. On wax.   

Props 

Merab: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+1600) Dec (-135)   

Henry: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+1800) Dec (+350) 

Winner: Merab | Method: Decision

Roman Kopylov (+200) vs. Fluffy Hernandez (-250)

Kopylov: DK: $7.4k | Fluffy: DK:$8.8k

My 2023 Fighter of the Year, Roman Kopylov, is back. Cue that “Just Like Daddy” by 2Pac! Chase Hooper dreams of growing up to be just like his daddy, Roman Kopylov, aka Mr. Hooper Sr. You take one look at Roman Kopylov and know he’s a fighter despite the Ronald McDonald wig. His face looks like a dented jalopy, like the cart at a golf range picking up the balls. His nose is held on with duct tape; it looks like a mine cave-in. He looks like Pennywise without his makeup, chilling in the sewer watching the new season of Vanderpump Rules. His face looks like Genesis graphics. But don’t let any of that fool you; Roman Kopylov has developed into one of the biggest sleepers in the middleweight division after starting his career 0-2. But Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez will be his toughest fight to date. Another sleeper, Fluffy is one of the best/most dangerous grapplers in the division who holds a submission win over the Jitz God himself, Rodolfo Vieira. This is a banger style matchup.    

Roman Kopylov is fast as f**k booooooy! His hands create sonic booms; they have governors on them like rental cars. The only AP class Roman took in high school was Ass-Kicking 101. Kopylov is a formidable kickboxer with the dexterity of a cheerleader in his lead leg. Robert Whittaker throws the cross-to-right high kick same-side combination, and Kopylov does it in reverse. He starts with a left-high kick out of the southpaw stance. On the backswing of the kick, he fires the left hand behind it. It’s so quick it’s like he’s throwing both strikes simultaneously. Kopylov’s kicks are some of the fastest you will see. There’s the Giga kick from Giga Chikadze, and there’s the Kopylov kick. Kopylov throws his kicks with a more Karate style, hinging them at the knee rather than turning the hips over. They travel a shorter distance to the target than traditional Muay Thai round kicks.   

Kopylov’s major malfunction is his ground game. He doesn’t have one. He rocks a noinety-two percent takedown defense, but the few times he ended up on his back, it wasn’t pretty. He was splashing and flailing, the universal sign for “I’m drowning!” on the mat. That’s a bad sign against a grappling Harry Potter like Fluffy Hernandez. This matchup is nearly identical to last week's Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan matchup. If Fluffy gets the fight to the mat early like Vieira did against Petrosyan, it could be over quickly. But if Kopylov can stay upright, he will kickbox Fluffy’s face... off. Kopylov averages over four and a half SLpM, and his upside is a TKO/KO finish.   

Fluffy Hernandez is a rollin’, rollin’ stone. His daddy rolled away one day, and he never came home. Ask about Fluffy; he’s a hustla, he’s a, he’s a hustla. When this guy hits the mat, he rolls like fire drills in seventh grade. He rolls like 80s Dicks, Private Eyes making a grand entrance into a room full of henchmen. Fluffy looks like he hangs out at Guitar Center all day playing an acoustic guitar, but don’t let that fool you. This guy is a problem on the mat. He stays moving, scrambling, advancing, and hunting necks like Mossy Oak and duck whistles. All the while chipping away at you with punches and elbows. No matter where the fight takes place, Fluffy looks to create damage over everything else. Fluffy has eleven career victories, and seven of them are submissions.  

On the feet, Fluffy’s striking is good from far but far from good. If you squint and the lighting is just right, he looks like a fairly nifty striker, complete with boxing slip and rolls and a little Philly Shell action that looks more like an Idaho Shell. But upon closer inspection, his stand-up is a little janky. That’s a word. Janky, as in cheap, of poor quality like knock-off sports jerseys. But he’s not a TLC scrub on the feet, either. He can make you miss and make you pay. And he has sneaky standing counter elbows. Fluffy uses his striking to draw you into a firefight, and then he flips on you like reciprocal fractions and changes levels. He averages just under four and a half SLpM and nearly seven takedowns per fifteen minutes. And he has two career TKO/KOs to go along with those subs, like a value meal.   

The mat is lava for Roman Kopylov. If he ends up on the mat, Fluffy will eventually choke him out. If Fluffy can’t get Kopylov to the mat, Kopylov will finish him on the feet. The play for Kopylov is a TKO/KO finish, and the play for Fluffy is a win by submission. Both will be all-or-nothing Fantasy options with homerun potential, but just as likely to strike out. Fluffy is the (-210) favorite, and Kopylov is a live (+170). Kopylov is worth the gamble in all aspects; straight betting or Fantasy. Fluffy tends to mess around too much on the feet, longer than he should. He can’t afford to do that against Kopylov. He needs to come out like Brock Lesnar did against Heath Herring. This is a classic put-my-money-where-my-mouf-isn’t fight. Best believe I got a Jackson with Kopylov’s name on it. Fluffy Hernandez via guillotine choke, round two. Wax on, wax off. 

Props 

Fluffy: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+180) Dec (+275)  

Kopylov: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2500) Dec (+650) 

Winner: Fluffy Hernandez | Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Brendson Ribeiro ($7.8k): Listen, listen, listen, Linda. Ribeiro vs. Zhang is going to be the Fourth of July fireworks, none of that sparklers in the driveway or those lil snake things that look like cigarette butts type-ish. Brendson Ribiero is 15-5 with noine TKO/KOs and six subs, and for those counting on their fingers, that’s a one-hunnid percent finishing rate. Ribiero’s striking isn’t great, but he’s wild as fook, boy. This guy reminds me of an emaciated Bruno Silva on the feet. But he’ll be at a general striking disadvantage against Zhang. Zhang is overkill personified. He doesn’t let his finger off the trigger until the clip is empty. Zhang is 16-6 with ten TKO/KOs and six subs; yep, a one-hunnid percent finishing rate. If this stays standing, the fight favors Zhang, but Ribeiro can catch him slippin’. Where Ribiero will win this fight is on the mat. Ribeiro is the dual threat and has a fifty percent chance of killing or being killed in the first round. Ribiero has eleven first-round finishes, and ALL of Zhang’s sixteen dubs came in the first round. This is a toss-up, and Ribiero has a ton of value in the $7k salary range.   

Roman Kopylov ($7.4k): Last week, I went with the striker in a classic grappler vs. striker matchup (Vieira vs. Petrosyan) and got burned. This week, I reluctantly took the grappler in Fluffy Hernandez. But if Fluffy gets to messing around on the feet, or the takedown well runs dry at any point, that’s that ass. Kopylov is quicker than your first time, homies. This guy is speed on a different level; hand and foot speed. This guy cracks like fingers and single ply tp. You’ll know within the first minute who will win this fight. Fluffy will either get Kopylov to the mat and latch on to a head and arm choke (D’arce/Anaconda/Arm triangle), or Kopylov will shake off the takedown and kickbox Fluffy’s face... off. Kopylov is an all-or-nothing gamble, but so is Fluffy. But a guy with almost a sure chance to finish the fight at this price is a steal.  

Paulo Costa ($7.2k)/ Geoff Neal ($7.1k): Bofa deez guys are steals at this salary level. Geoff Neal will have something for Ian Garry. This will be the first fight of Garry’s career. Geoff Neal is a human mushroom cloud. Dude is the most brutal, the most vicious, and most ruthless; he’s just ferocious. He wants your heart. Also, Neal averages over five SLpM, and in a fight that is sure to stay standing, Neal can hover around the one hundred significant strikes mark. And Paulo Costa averages over six and a half SLpM with an eighty percent takedown defense. Costa has a good shot of defending Whittaker’s takedowns and making this a firefight on the feet. And in a straight kickboxing match, it’s a toss-up. There are some potential duds in the top tier (Miranda Maverick, Oban Elliott, I’m looking at you) that Neal and Costa have much more value than.   

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Valentine Woodburn ($6.9k): I’m actually writing this on Valentine’s Day. What a coinkadink. This guy, Valentine Woodburn, defies the laws of physics; he’s a welterweight built like a heavyweight. He’s built like Bebop. He didn’t grow up; he grew out. Woodburn has fought at light heavyweight and middleweight. Bombs: Woodburn throws nothing but. Technique: Woodburn doesn’t have an ounce. But he’s massive for 170lbs, and it wasn’t too long ago that he was KOing light heavies. BUT (big but); 0-7, 1-4, 1-1, 3-4: These are the records of four guys he has fought, and Woodburn only has eight career scraps. He debuted as the Trex-in-Jurassic-Park sacrificial lamb against Bo Nickal and got KOd quicker than Taco Bell regrets, but Oban Elliott is a much more winnable fight for Woodburn. Elliott and Woodburn are debuting, and I have no idea what to expect from either guy. But Woodburn is 7-1 with five TKO/KOs and gives you a chance at a finish if you find yourself sifting through the Consume within 24 Hours clearance rack.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Roman Kopylov (+195): Chase Hooper Sr. was my Fighter of the Year in 2023 for a reason; he had three early TKO/KO finishes. The level of competition is questionable, but you can’t deny that this guy is getting better. His takedown defense and ground haven’t really been tested since his 0-2 UFC start, but he has won four straight since then, and all were TKO/KO finishes. Like Trey Murphy III is a bucket, Roman Kopylov is a finish. I think this fight is a 50/50 toss-up, and if Roman can keep it standing, he will all but certainly finish Fluffy Hernandez on the feet. That's a big IF, though.  

Ilia Topuria (+110): There’s a good chance Topuria won’t be in the plus money for very long. Get him while you can. Topuria in plus money against anyone in the division is a steal. This fight is another complete toss-up, and Topuria has the huevos and power to stop Volkanovski. We’ll find out if Ilia’s mouf has been writing fraudulent checks or if he knows something that we don’t. This one will be power vs speed and should be a close fight to the final bell. I also like Topuria’s chances of finishing the fight a little more than I do Volk’s.   

Andrea Lee (+155): Gotta show the ladies some love on Valentine’s Day week. Andrea Lee has lost to every good fighter she has fought, but I’m not sure Miranda Maverick is in that category. Lee fought a marauder’s row in her last three fights: Maycee Barber, Viviane Araujo, and Natalia Silva, and she went the distance with all of them. Lee is a scrappy lady with elephantiasis of the heart, and her high-level fight experience dwarfs Maverick's. Lee is in nothing but close fights, and this has split-decision written all over it, and there’s a ton of value for Lee as the dog. She can keep the fight standing and outwork Maverick for three rounds.   

Pick ‘Em 

Amanda Lemos (-130) vs. Mackenzie Dern (+110) 

Winner: Amanda Lemos 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Marcos de Lima (-140) vs. Justin Tafa (+115) 

Winner: Marcos de Lima  

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Rinya Nakamura (-1200) vs. Carlos Vera (+725) 

Winner: Rinya Nakamura 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Mingyang Zhang (-120) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (-110) 

Winner: Brendson Ribiero 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.1 

Josh Quinlan (+165) vs. Danny Barlow (-200) 

Winner: Danny Barlow 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Oban Elliott (-310) vs. Valentine Woodburn (+250) 

Winner: Oban Elliott 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3 

Andrea Lee (+155) vs. Miranda Maverick (-190) 

Winner: Andrea Lee 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy