Weekly Knockout (UFC) - UFC 299 O'Malley vs. Chito Vera 2

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Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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He blooms at Sunset. And Hollywood Blvd. Under bright lights full of stars. Drive-bys in exotic cars. Day “N’ Nite, from far and wide they come, no end in sight. They tell him lies; they tell sweet little lies.    

He don’t hear ‘em though.  

Sean O’Malley was on to them before he even stepped foot inside the Octagon. The real-life Truman Burbank, he knew his life was but a show. Millions around the world tune in to partake in the spectacle, scoff at his successes, and revel in his defeats. To cheer him, to jeer him. To love him, to hate him. To hate to love him. But they tune in just the same. If you are what you say you are, a superstar, then have no fear; the camera’s here.   

Welcome to The Suga Show. 

Main Card 

Sean O’Malley (-285) vs. Chito Vera (+225)

Suga Show: DK: $9.2k | Chito: DK:$7k

Sean O’Malley taking over for the nine-nine and the three hundred. IDGAF: This here is the unofficial UFC 300. And when Sean O’Malley is headlining, you already know what fookin’ time it is. It’s 4:20 somewhere, homies! Roll that shit. Light that shit. Smoke that shit. Put it in the air! Ooooh weeee! Sean O’Malley wants all the smoke like he’s bogarting the Cheech and Chong blunt. Humphrey Bogart. Mr. Bogart, to you. Puff, puff, never pass. Inhale, never exhale. Ghost it. Bish Please: Your little longs is too small to hot box with God.   

And your arms are too short to box with him. Sean O’Malley will stick you with a 1-2 and then hit a Slick Back on the way out, levitate. His Gucci slippers were made for Moonwalking, and that's just what they’ll do. He hit Aljo with the Moonwalk counter right hand and a “Heee-Heee!” Then wrested the belt from his prone body. What makes O’Malley special? Check the footwork. His lateral movement is perpetual, infinite. When you think you have him trapped against the cage, he turns into Barry Sanders in the backfield and jukes his way out. The secret to O’Malley’s success is geometry. Angles. He’s on that Pythagorean Theorem shit. Sin, cosign, tangent; all that shit. He’ll blister your face with searing punches and leave you swinging at the end of a hypotenuse. Your face will look like a glazed donut with all that Neosporin on your face when he’s done with you. 

O’Malley combines the two deadliest elements on the Periodic Table of Fighting, length (L) and speed (SP). He doesn’t beat you with power; he beats you with timing, speed, and precision. O’Malley steps into the Octagon and performs triple bypass surgery with his hands. They roll out O’Malley’s hands on a little silver tray. He’ll hit you with Magic look-away punches, and if you get too aggressive and over pursue, he’ll hit you with the Dirk turn-around fade away right hand with the little leg kick. O’Malley is an artist in the cage, and each fight is opening night as his gallery. He doesn’t want a firefight; he wants to dab you with little happy brush strokes from the outside and rub his chin as he scrutinizes his handiwork. O’Malley is chasing his masterpiece every time he steps into the cage.  

When it comes to the rematch with the only man to beat him, Chito Vera, O’Malley just has to be himself. In the first fight, O’Malley was piecing up Chito with quick 1s and 1-2s from the outside. His speed was too much for Chito, BUT (big but) Chito did more damage with one calf kick than O’Malley did landing twenty punches. Defending leg kicks still remains one of O’Malley’s biggest weaknesses. He uses a wide stance and tends to put a lot of weight on his lead foot. Chito will be looking to counter O’Malley’s hands with leg kicks, so O’Malley will have to feint and use his trademark NASCAR circular movement to keep Chito from setting his feet.   

O’Malley’s numbers: He averages nearly seven and a half SLpM to Chito’s four and a half; he will outpace Chito from the jump, but Chito has a habit of erasing large striking deficits with one strike. O’Malley is 17-1 with twelve TKO/KOs and one solo-dolo submission, and four of his last five dubs came via TKO/KO. Chito has over thirty professional fights to his name and has never been finished. Can The Suga Show be the first to finish Chito The Bullet Dodger? I think it’s close to 50/50. Chito takes a ton of damage, but power is easier to withstand than ghost shots, shots hidden behind the veil of speed that you don’t see coming.    

Chito Vera will straight-up murder your ass. He’s the tortoise; you’re the hare. You can sprint, and he will never exceed a leisurely stroll and still stay just a step behind you. You can drop a fifty burger on him before halftime, drop a Kobe eighty-one on him, and he will still knock you out. No lead is safe against Chito Vera. In the first O’Malley fight, Chito was getting got on the feet until he made O’Malley’s leg look like an Ugg boot sole. O’Malley looked like a Betty walking on the side of that bish. He just finds ways to win. Part of his strategy is giving you a false sense of security until you let your guard down. He’s a human honey badger; you think shit’s cute until he’s gnawing on your face like a guy gone off bath salts. There it is; Chito hands out bath salt ass whoopin’s. He’s not a fighter; he’s an ass-kicker.   

Chito doesn’t have weapons; he is a weapon. His limbs are dipped in poison; if they so much as touch you, you’re dead. His strikes are like a flesh-eating disease that slowly deteriorates not only your physical but your mental. Chito is a damage-over-volume striker, quality over quantity. He’ll give you ten to take one. When it comes to equal opportunity, Chito gives all his limbs equal representation. Chito Vera is the most diverse striker in the cage every time he steps in the cage. And of all the bones he throws, his left round kick is his singular best weapon. He also has nasty rear-leg up-the-middle snap kicks that he sets up off the same movement as his round kick.   

Red Flag: Chito is notorious for getting behind on the scorecards. Paralysis by analysis. Chito tends to get outworked sometimes while he is busy looking for the perfect openings. He often fights like a guy who was promised a tomorrow. But he’s Tom Brady with the two-minute drill. He can go down the field in just two plays when he decides to turn up. Chito doesn’t lose; he just runs out of time. You can’t finish Chito; you need a silver bullet for that. You have to cut his head clean off. Chito has to be invited into the Octagon and has no reflection. And trust me, if you continue to sleep on this mf, he’ll get you in your dreams too.   

The keys for Chito will be countering O’Malley with leg kicks and increasing his volume by extending combinations. Chito has an underrated, deadly jab. O’Malley has a long, snappy, range-establishing jab from a bladed stance, while Chito has a damaging power jab from a more squared stance. When he gets O’Malley against the cage, he has to keep him there by using round kicks and hooks to box him in. Chito is 23-8 with eight TKO/KOs and ten subs. I don’t see this fight touching the mat unless someone gets dropped, but Chito has a deadly guard and slick chokes from the top, and the club and sub will be in attendance on Saturday night.   

O’Malley will be the (-260) favorite, and Chito will be the (+215) live dog. Dogs now have won four main events in a row and five of the last six. Chito at plus money is automatic every time. When it comes to value, a Chito finish is Juicy like B.I.G. He can survive O’Malley’s speed and output early, slowly take over with damage late, and steal a decision, but I think he will need a finish to keep the streak alive. Chito is the ultimate grinder, and if he can stay alive long enough to get to the championship rounds, he can out-dog O’Malley. I can see O’Malley slowing down, his lateral movement tailing off, and the damage building up, leaving Chito with a late opportunity to steal the fight.   

The main event-L streak now sits at four. The pick ‘ems have been solid, but I couldn’t buy a main event dub if I controlled the galaxy’s supply of the precious Spice Melange. I’ve gone chalk the last several weeks, and it cost me. And here I am again, taking the favorite. I think O’Malley’s speed will be hard to overcome early, and his volume hard to overcome on the judges' scorecards. I may be picking Sean O’Malley, but best believe my Andy Jack will be on Chito Vera. Sean O’Malley via decision. On wax. 

Props 

O’Malley: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+1800) Dec (+100)  

Chito: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+1600) Dec (+600) 

Winner: Sean O’Malley | Method: Decision

Dustin Poirier (+175) vs. Benoit St. Denis (-215)

Poirier: DK: $7.3k | St. Denis: DK: $8.9k

Hello Darkness, my old friend. I’ve come to see you once again. You might want to watch this one while using a VPN. This is some dark web shit right here. This fight is about to be more violent than an Itchy and Scratchy episode. Benoit St. Denis's fights play out as if they were directed by Quentin Tarantino, and Dustin Poirier's fights look like old black-and-white World War II footage. This fight is the one that will make all the doomsday preppers look like prescient geniuses as they watch the world fall into nuclear winter from the peephole of their bunkers. When this one was announced, I got a DM from Dustin Poirier, which read: “Life’s a risk, carnal.” You gotta have stones the size of Randy Marsh’s to accept a fight with the twelfth-ranked guy when you are perennially only a fight or two away from a title shot. Poirier is taking a huge risk fighting down in the rankings, especially against possibly the wildest mf in the division. This one has serious main event feels and could represent a changing of the lightweight guard.   

Benoit St. Denis isn’t a fighter; he’s a snuff film star. In the seedy underbelly of society, St. Denis is a superstar, the Timothee Chalamet of his dark craft. Even his performance during his only career loss earned him high praise amongst blood-lusting heathens. Benoit fights like a man who is already dead. Because he is. His UFC debut played out like the Deadpool origin story when Elizeu Dos Santos beat him so badly that the referee was fired immediately after the fight for letting it play out for the full fifteen minutes. Watching that fight was uncomfortable, like watching Passion of Christ for the first time. That ass whoopin’ had a religious feel to it, and Benoit immediately became a martyr like Paul Atreides. But that fight was at welterweight, and Denis has since won five straight in the lightweight division.   

On the feet, Denis is far from a technical tactician. In fact, St. Denis’ striking can be fairly amateurish at times. He doesn’t manage distance well, put together crispy combinations, or have high-level footwork. But he does have psychotic aggression. Literally insane aggression. He’s devious, dastardly, and destructive and never stops throwing limbs at you. His best weapon is his Dollar General Giga kick that he unloads to the body in multiples of ten. He puts that bish on auto-fire and pray-’n'-sprays the whole arena with round kicks. You heard of hell, well, he was sent from it. From the opening bell, Benoit St. Denis comes out on fire like the human torch, on fire like NBA Jam with the big head Game Genie cheat code activated and dunking from halfcourt. 

Where Denis shines is on the mat. You wear Benoit like a Met Gala costume when he gets the top position. He is damage and submission over position, and his path to totality against Dustin Poirier is on the mat, where Dustin has shown he can’t hang with the world’s elite grapplers. The only question is Denis’ takedowns. He likes to pressure you against the cage with wild blitzes, and as soon as your back touches the fence, he level changes. Benoit is 13-1 for his career with a one hundred percent finishing rate, including four TKO/KOs and noine subs. Of Poirier’s eight career losses, three came via TKO/KO and three by submission. He is also coming in off a devastating head-kick KO loss to the Head Savage in Charge, Justin Gaethje. This could be the classic case of catching a superior fighter at the perfect time.   

Dustin Poirier is a triple O-G with general stripes. He enlisted in the UFC back in 2011 and has since completed thirty tours of duty within hostile territory. This guy is an MMA Navy Seal. Dana White has to get Congressional approval before sending Dustin Poirier into the Octagon to fight. He has never not been in a war. But we ain’t talking Modern Warfare; we’re talking ancient warfare, riding mastodons while brandishing wooden clubs with spikes ran through them. His punches are like trebuchets launching boulders across the Octagon. He’s the Genghis Khan of this shit. Poirier will be the far superior striker against St. Denis, and if this stays on the feet, this could turn into St. Denis vs. Elizeu Dos Santos 2. 

Poirier breaks all the rules on the feet. He doesn’t throw from his face; he throws from the chest, shovel punches. His punches are hook/overhand hybrids that he unloads from below eye level where they are hard to pick up. Poirier doesn’t necessarily have one-punch power, but rather, he bludgeons, batters you until you break. His best weapon is his left hand. He likes to use a squared stance and dart the left hand with no tell, while exiting out the back door to achieve a dominant angle. The key for Poirier will be staying off the fence. His major malfunction is fighting with his back to the cage. Michael Chandler took advantage of this and nearly finished Poirier in the first round of their fight. 

In fact, this fight could look a lot like the Chandler fight. Chandler found success taking down Poirier against the cage and dominated the entire second round from the top position. Pressing fighters against the cage and dominating the top position with ground and pound is St. Denis’ bread and butter. Poirier has to win this fight in the center of the Octagon. The punching stats are nearly identical, with both fighters averaging five and a half SLpm, but St. Denis averages four and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, while Poirier rocks a sixty-three percent takedown defense. If Denis is smart, he will make this a grappler vs. striker matchup.   

I’m shook. Denis will be the (-200) favorite, and Poirier will be the (+165) dog. That’s unheard of; the number three ranked fighter in the division is a heavy dog against the number twelve guy. Sleep on Poirier at your own risk. The big gamble is if Poirier can keep the fight standing. If so, it’s a wrap. Poirier will box St. Denis's face... off. But that’s a huge IF. We’ve seen Poirier struggle to keep fights standing against guys like Chandler, Oliveira, and Khabib. Benoit has a comparable ground game to all those guys. But Dustin Poirier, at plus money against a guy who tends to ego fight for long stretches, is a steal. Benoit can be drawn into a firefight. You can’t threaten him with a good time. The upside for both fighters is a finish. I don’t think this one will go the distance. Poirier will either be stopped on the mat, or St. Denis will be stopped on the feet. This one hurts. I can’t picture Poirier keeping this standing for the duration, and Denis only needs one takedown to finish this. I switched up this pick at least three times. But there’s too much value on the dog Dustin Poirier. Dustin Poirier via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.

Props 

Poirier: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1000) Dec (+700)  

St. Denis: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+150) Dec (+600) 

Winner: Dustin Poirier | Method: TKO Rd.3

Kevin Holland (-130) vs. Michael Page (+100)

Holland: DK: $8.5k | MVP: DK:$7.7k

Sound the air sirens. Fire up the Emergency Broadcast System. Fook rankings and titles; this is a dream matchup created for the fans. You’ve probably seen MVP highlights on ESPN Top Ten randomly for the past several years. After spending nearly his entire career since 2014 with Bellator, MVP is finally getting the call to the big leagues. But after twenty-three career MMA bouts, MVP might be fighting the best fighter he has ever faced. It’s easy to brush off Kevin Holland as a fun-loving jester inside the cage, but he’s a serial killer hiding murder material under your stereo. Holland is known for his desire to engage strictly in fan-friendly affairs. He will have a clear advantage on the mat, but that almost guarantees that he will keep the fight standing and try to earn a feather in his cap by out striking one of the most intricate strikers in the game.   

MVP is straight vicious. He hits you with plates and dishes. Leaves you with eight stitches. This guy doesn’t beat people; he disfigures them. He puts dents in you like clearance soup cans. He leaves you looking like a Civil War Vet, missing your lower jaw and shit. Back in the day, I took Muay Thai classes from the male Cyborg, Evangelista Santos. Well, he was the dude whose head MVP dented with a flying knee. No shit, dude’s entire forehead caved in like a mining accident. There was a chance at one point that Cyborg might not survive (he did). In his last MMA bout, MVP went straight Tanya Harding and did the same thing to some poor bastard’s kneecap with a leg kick. X-rays of MVP’s opponents after their fights don’t even look human.   

MVP is the real Venom. He’s a symbiote that infects you. He’s an entity; he doesn’t have a true physical form. He flows and moves like sound waves. What makes him unique/special is his creativity in putting combinations together. He puts things together that shouldn’t be put together. He fits square objects into round holes. His combinations are like Eminem bars. Em rhymes words that shouldn’t rhyme like: Orange, door hinge, four-inch, and porridge. MVP throws flying knees off sidekicks, spinning shit off flying shit, and vice versa. All this as he moves like a lava lamp. He’s the T-1000 when it's thrown in the vat of molten lava and all his forms come out. But as dangerous a striker as he is, on the mat, he is the complete opposite. 

MVP is a grebe on the mat. Grebe’s never land. When they do, they get stranded on the beach until the tide carries them away. MVP has that Kevin Costner Waterworld ground game. He wears a Life-Alert pendant around his neck like old folks in bathtubs, so he can call for help if he ends up on the mat. MF has gills; no ground game. I’ll give him this; he can be tough to get to the mat. His long frame can make it difficult to get hold of him, but he needs the cage to stay upright. The key is taking him down in the center of the mat. If Holland comes into this fight with the mindset of earning a dub and moving on, he will, for the first time in his career, try to wrestle early. Holland has a nasty choke game, like hotdogs and windpipes. If he gets MVP down, the head and arm chokes will be available all night long. MVP has never been submitted in his career, but he has never fought against current UFC competition, either. 

Bring back Shit-talking Kevin Holland. That sounds like an action figure: Kevin Holland with Shit-Talking Action! Kevin Holland made a name for himself, narrating audiobooks while simultaneously whoopin’ peoples’ asses. The world needs Auctioneer Kevin Holland back. We need Kevin Holland throwing 1-2s while spitting 16s like Bone Thugs. See you at the Crossroads when Kevin Holland starts letting those Go-Go Gadget hands fly. When he gets into that Go-Go Gadget flow like Lupe Fiasco. This guy’s arms are so long they cross state lines when he throws. He’s got fugitive hands. Ol’ Harrison Ford hands. Talkin’ about, “You can’t catch me, coppers!” Those out of jurisdiction hands. Holland will slap you from a state away. These two guys will be hitting each other from clear across the arena. It will look like a foam noodle war in the pool when they get to swinging.   

But even though Holland has a long reach, he doesn’t always use it well. He triple jumps into the pocket, does a full tumbling routine into the pocket and often over-pursues. He won’t have to worry about being taken down in this fight, but he runs the risk of running head-first into MVP Matrix counters. The path to victory for Holland is on the mat. He’s the D’arce Knight. But he’s far from a takedown specialist. Holland needs to cause just enough chaos on the feet to set up his entries and look to use trips. If he gets MVP to the mat, Holland can finish him with strikes or subs. This guy has Anacondas like JLo, and his submission game is criminally slept-on.   

Both fighters average four and a half SLpM, and both can finish the fight. MVP is 21-2 with thirteen TKO/KOs and three subs. And Kevin Holland is 25-10 with fourteen TKO/KOs and seven subs. MVP’s last fight was for BKFC, bare-knuckle fighting, and he lost to the Bare-Knuckle King, Mike “Platinum” Perry. Compared to bare-knuckle, this fight will be a cakewalk. Holland is coming in off a close loss to Jack Della Maddalena. Holland will be the slight (-130) favorite, and MVP will be the (+110) live-ass dog. I have no idea what to expect from this one. Something tells me Holland will choose to stand and bang. The play for MVP is a TKO/KO finish, and I like a submission for Holland. His last win was an Anaconda submission against Michael Chiesa, and that returned (+550). Kevin Holland via D’arce Choke, round three. Put that ish on wax.

 Props 

Holland: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+550) Dec (+200)  

MVP: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+2500) Dec (+225) 

Winner: Kevin Holland | Method: D’arce Choke Rd.3

Gilbert Burns (+135) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-165)

Burns: DK: $7.6k | Della Soul: DK: $8.6k

Another one. Another banger. It’s time to shit or get off the pot for Jack Della “Soul.” JDM is considered a future title challenger and has shown equal glimpses of brilliance and vulnerabilities. Beating Gilbert Burns will put him firmly in the title conversation. And a win for Gil Burns will stave off all the “he’s washed” conversations and keep him within striking range of a second title fight of his own. Gil is at his best when he makes fights classic grappler vs. striker affairs, but if it stays standing, he can bang with anybody, as we saw when he took Chimaev to the brink of defeat and dangled him over the ledge. This has Fight Night main event written all over it.   

You can take one look at JDM and know he’s a fighter. He has cauliflower nose. He rocks that Michael Jackson nose. JDM and Roman Kopylov should be Breathe Right Strips nose models. His nose looks like he left it out, and racoons got hold of it. It looks like it folds up for easy storage. His face just looks like one big scar tissue, like he threw hands with the doctor who delivered him and has been fighting ever since. Speaking of throwing hands, Jack’s hands sound like cannonballs when they land. But I ain’t talking pirate ship cannonballs; I’m talkin’ plump kids and high dives cannonballs. JDM’s strikes splash when they land; they sound wet.   

JDM is like a 1:55 diecast Joe Pyfer. He’s all hooks like T-Pain. Jack unloads short, mini-Alex Pereira hooks with both hands behind a stiff boxer’s jab. And Jack has that Midas touch. He has bodywork like fender benders. His special move is using level change combinations, starting at the head and ending at the body and vice versa. The gazelle punch is like a dart punch with squared shoulders. Roy Jones Jr. used the gazelle punch as well as anybody in history. JDM often busts out his own variation of the gazelle punch, and it’s not necessarily a power punch as much as it is a surprise punch that catches you off guard.   

JDM has to keep this fight standing. Bassil Hafez landed three takedowns and recorded nearly seven minutes of control time against JDM. Burns wrestling/grappling is better than Hafez’s. But, again, this might be another changing of the guard moment. JDM could be getting Burns at the right time. It will be a tall task taking down and controlling JDM for fifteen minutes. If this stays standing, JDM will have the overall striking advantage as long as he can stay away from Burns’ right hand.  

JDM is 16-2 for his career with eleven TKO/KOs and two subs, but both of his last two bouts came via split decision. JDM could easily be riding a two-fight L-streak. But he ain’t! So, fook it! Fantasy-wise, JDM can drop a Luka Doncic stat line; he averages just under seven and a half SLpM, and four of his six UFC dubs came via finish. Even in a fairly tepid fight against Kevin Holland, JDM landed over one hundred significant strikes.   

Last time we saw Gilbert Burns, he looked like Mr. Burns.  

“Smither, are they booing me?” 

“Oh, no, Sir. They’re saying ‘Boo-urns, boo-urns.’” 

He just didn’t look like himself against Belal Muhammad. But Belal will do that to you. But even though he lost, we need more Afro-Gil. “I cracked JDM’s ass because I got high. Because I got high.” Gil’s afro looks like Lego hair. Burns still has that giggity-goo Quagmire right hand, and his right foot still wears the giant boot that the Australian PM tried to kick Bart in the ass with. Don’t Tread On Me. On the feet, Burns is all 1s, 1-2s, and 3-2s (cross-hook). And his right hand and right leg can put anyone to sleep. He fooked around and nearly slept Khamzat at the end of the second round of their fight. For the most part, Burns is an à la carte striker, no combos. Defensively, Belal found a major hole in Burns’ game: To the body. Belal ate him up with body kicks, and attacking the body is JDM’s specialty. 

Burns will be the far lower output striker, averaging under three and a half SLpM. He will have to make up for falling behind on the striking stats with a knockdown if he can’t get the fight to the mat. He averages just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and even though JDM averages eighty-two percent takedown defense, if Bassil Hafez can get JDM down, so can Burns. I think JDM will have the better upside as far as a finish goes. I see Burns as more of a sub-threat on the mat than a finishing threat on the feet. And Burns has been finished twice in his career by TKO/KO. JDM will be the (-170) favorite, and Burns will be the (+140) dog. For Burns to win this fight, he has to make it look like the Wonderboy fight, where he didn’t mess around at all on the feet. If it stays standing, JDM will pull away. JDM via decision. On wax.

Props 

Burns: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+350) Dec (+450)   

JDM: TKO/KO (+150) Sub (+2000) Dec (+300) 

Winner: Jack Della Maddalena | Method: Decision

Petr Yan (-125) vs. Song Yadong (+100)

Petr Yan: DK: $8.3k | Yadong: DK:$7.9k

Petr Yan’s title reign was like Biggie’s career, over way too soon. Yan had a Joffrey-like reign on the bantamweight throne. They call the fight in which he lost his title to Aljo the Purple DQ. Yan flew too close to the sun after people told him to turn around at Mercury. He rose like a Phoenix and crashed like a River Phoenix. But his story isn’t over yet. This is still the guy who was recovered at a UFO crash site in the middle of the New Mexico desert. He’s still the alien from that M. Night Shamalamalama movie. Petr Yan is not of this world like those corny 90s t-shirts. How Petr Got His Groove Back: He fought a striker and didn’t have to spend half the fight on one leg defending 50 Merab Dvalishvili takedowns. This is another Fight Night main event. Song Yadong has quietly become the dark horse of the division, having won five of his last six fights. And he might just be the heaviest one-punch striker at one-thirty-five.   

What was impressive about the Merab fight for Yan was that Yan defended thirty-noine of fifty takedowns. This guy’s wrestling is underrated. Mostly because he doesn’t initiate takedowns traditionally. Instead of doubles and singles, Yan uses sandbox schoolyard trips. He does a little Euro-step into an inside leg trip and sets it up off his hand combinations. Yan’s wrestling will be the x-factor in this fight. He can steal close rounds with a trip takedown here and there. On the feet, this will be down the middle even. Yadong will have the power advantage, but Yan’s boxing is built to beat power punchers like Yandong. Yan’s hands are tight like compact parking spaces. His hands will beat Yadong down the middle during 50/50 exchanges.   

Song Yadong is a Naked and Afraid minimalist striker with napalm in his hands. Jab. Cross. Hook. His striking consists of three basic ingredients. He’s got those vegan hands. Yadong only uses primitive weapons. He’s like a walking time capsule, using Stone Age 1s and 1-2s and hooks. The outfield moves to the warning track when Yadong steps up to the plate. He’s got that clean-up batter power, and he’s built like a mini-American Gladiator. He’s built like the No Limit tank. The Shoryuken tucked behind his lead hand is Yadong’s special weapon. He closes the distance behind his jab or lead hook and throws the uppercut behind it. Also, Yadong cuts you off and traps you against the cage, where he can extend combos. He confines you against the cage. Holds you against your will. On some, “It rubs the lotion on its skin, or else it gets the hose again” type-ish. And ain’t no Charles Ramsey coming to save you.   

The numbers: Yan averages five SLpM to Yadong’s four and a half, and Yan also averages just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes. Song rocks a seventy-three percent takedown percentage, but he’s actually pretty tough to get to the mat. This should be a firefight on the feet, and I’d give Yadong a slightly better chance of scoring a finish. But I think the play for this one is a decision one way or the other. Yan is the slightest of favorites, returning (-120), while Yadong is even money. A loss for Yan would mean losing four in a row and five of his last six... That seems impossible to fathom. But... I think... I’m gonna ride with... Song Yadong via decision. Wax on, wax off.   

Props 

Yan: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+2000) Dec (+140)  

Yadong: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+1800) Dec (+180) 

Winner: Song Yadong | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Michal Oleksiejczuk ($7.5k): Michel vs. Michal will be bonkers. The Cirque du Soleil trapeze artist (Michel) vs. The Donkey Kong Bomber (Michal). This one should be an odd little stand-up firefight. It would be hard to make a more diverse striker style matchup than this one. These guys’ styles are as different as West and East Coast rappers in the 90s. Michal Oleksiejczuk hits harder than his name is to spell. He won’t wow you will fancy footwork or crispy Killer Instinct extended combinations, but when he lands, you will get secondhand concussed. This will be Michel Pereira’s second fight at middleweight, and it has yet to be seen if the higher weight class will benefit his cardio. Pereira is huge, even for one eighty-five, and he tends to slow down dramatically around the halfway mark. I think this fight will be nip/tuck until that point, and then Oleks will start to take over. Oleks averages over five SLpM, and six of his seven career UFC dubs came via TKO/KO. He could be the first fighter in the UFC to finish Pereira, who is riding a six-fight dub streak.   

Dustin Poirier ($7.3k): This is crazy. Dustin Poirier nearing his shelf expiration date and closing in on a spot on the top shelf of the clearance rack. If Poirier’s takedown defense is on point, and he can keep his back off the cage, he will serve Benoit St. Denis like a bar and grill on the feet. Denis is wild aggression over technique on the feet, and Poirier will be, by far, the better striker. But none of that matters if he can’t stay upright. There’s a good chance the takedown well could run dry for St. Denis if he can’t find an early finish, and if that’s the case, Poirier will be primed for a late finish. This is a massive risk for Poirier as the number three-ranked lightweight fighting down at the number twelve-ranked fighter, and I think that will give him extra motivation and will allow for little chance that Poirier is sleeping on Benoit St. Denis. I think this fight will end in a finish one way or the other, and at this salary cap price, Poirier is dripping with value.   

Chito ($7k): They got Chito in the Dollar Spot! Fookin' crazy! Chito can spend the first fifteen to twenty minutes getting pieced up and still walk away with the belt. Chito is the Osiris of damage over everything else. All eight limbs (knees and elbows included) will have full representation on Saturday night. Countering O’Malley’s punches with low kicks will be pivotal for Chito, as O’Malley has yet to fix that hole in his game. The longer the fight progresses, the more that Chito ticket will look golden in your hand. He will have to survive O’Malley’s speed and range early, which he had problems with in the first fight, but Chito only needed one calf kick to erase the deficit. With the belt on the line, I don’t think we’ll see one of those head-scratching Chito fights like when he fought Sandhagen. I think Chito will surprise everyone, and it’s never wise to sleep on Chito. War Chito Vera!  

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Rafael Dos Anjos (6.8k): You can find tons of value in the $7k range this week, but the clearance rack is looking meager. RDA is a perennial heathen and former Champion who I never thought I’d see past his sell-by date collecting mold on the clearance rack. But that’s because RDA’s kryptonite has always been superior wrestlers. And Mateusz Gamrot is definitely that. RDA will likely spend a lot of time on his back, but if he can at least force some extended stretches on his feet, he still has the power, speed, and that nasty left-round kick that will cause Gamrot problems. Gamrot is far from an elite striker, but he is a volume wrestler who will shoot more double legs than throw jabs. I thought Gamrot dodged a bullet in his last bout against Rafael Fiziev when Fiziev blew his knee out in the second round. Before that, Gamrot had all sorts of issues on the feet with Jalin Turner and was lucky to get out of there with a win. This is a winnable fight for RDA if he still has anything left in his gas tank.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Josh Parisian (+255): That’s Gucci Bert Kreischer to you. I don’t know a damn thing about Gucci Bert’s opponent Robelis Despaigne other than he only has four pro fights and barely one full round of cage time total for all four bouts. This guy KOs people with the draft created by missed punches, and there’s a high likelihood that he will come out and mollywhop ol’ Gucci Bert. BUT (big but) there’s also a high likelihood that he will Peter out after a minute or two of fiery fury, and Gucci Bert can get him to the mat and start chipping his way to a victory with ground and pound. If Parisian can close the distance early, tie up Despaigne against the cage, and draw out some of Despaigne’s energy, Gucci Bert can steal this fight. 

Pedro Munhoz (+170): Munhoz vs. Phillips is another crunchy little banger. This one should be nonstop action on the feet and on the mat. I’m high on Kyler Phillips, who has a dub over Song Yadong. He reminds me of a more technical, slightly more subdued Brandon Royval. At this point in their careers, I think Phillips is the better fighter, but Munhoz has the great equalizer in his right leg. He caused O’Malley all sorts of problems on the feet with his leg kicks, and he often throws more leg kicks than any other strikes. Using leg kicks will help slow down Kyler Phillip’s movement early and open up a six-lane highway for Munhoz’s mini hooks and overhands. Munhoz is a firefighter in the pocket, and if he can draw Phillips into extended 50/50 exchanges, he can win this fight.   

Dustin Poirier (+175): This fight is a toss-up to me. It’s wild for the #2 ranked guy to be a dog against the #12. But here we are. St. Denis is a wild, sadistic heathen, and if his bloodlust gets the better of him and he gets caught up in a war on the feet, he will get got. If he can’t get Poirier to the mat early and often, he will get got on the feet. My only trepidation for picking Poirier to win the fight is the feeling that Poirier might finally be hitting the downside of his career, and St. Denis is getting him at the right time. So far in 2024, that has been a running theme, savvy veterans fighting like Coachella hologram versions of their prime selves. But Dustin Poirier at plus money against a guy yet to face elite competition inside the Octagon is an automatic green light.   

Pick ‘Em 

Curtis Blaydes (-105) vs. Jailton Almeida (-115) 

Winner: Curtis Blaydes 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

 

Katlyn Chookagian (+170) vs. Maycee Barber (-210) 

Winner: Maycee Barber

Method: Decision 

 

Mateusz Gamrot (-450) vs. Rafael Dos Santos (+350) 

Winner: Mateusz Gamrot 

Method: Decision 

 

Pedro Munhoz (+175) vs. Kyler Phillips (-225) 

Winner: Kyler Phillips 

Method: Decision 

 

Ion Cutelaba (-135) vs. Philipe Lins (+105) 

Winner: Ion Cutelaba 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

 

Michel Pereira (-150) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+120) 

Winner: Michel Pereira 

Method: Decision 

 

Robelis Despaigne (-325) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+255) 

Winner: Robelis Despaigne 

Method: TKO Rd.1 

 

C.J. Vergara (+400) vs. Assu Almabaev (-550) 

Winner: Assu Almabaev 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

 

Joanne Wood (+190) vs. Maryna Moroz (-230) 

Winner: Joanne Wood 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1