Weekly Knockout (UFC) - UFC 300 Pereira vs. Hill

UFC Cheat Sheet DFS & Pick'Em Picks

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Kids today will never understand what it was like to venture past the purple curtain – what it was like to save your lunch money for a week so you could buy access behind the purple curtain. 

MUST BE 18 TO ENTER 

Running into teachers, baseball coaches, and neighbors behind the purple curtain. “Chris, uh... I don’t think you’re old—”  

“Country Cuzzins, what’s that about, Mr. Bradley?”  

“Oh... I, uh... was just putting it back. Someone must’ve misplaced it. Hey... maybe don’t mention you saw me here to Mrs. Bradley...”  

People acted funny behind the purple curtain – wore unseasonal clothing, hoodies in the middle of summer pulled up and cinched tight. Whispers and squinty eyes followed you behind the purple curtain. The lighting was different, dimmer, tinted an eerie shade of yellow, like when you haven’t had enough water to drink, behind the purple curtain. You had to be quick behind the purple curtain, “Hey, are you doing okay back there? Need any help?” 

“I’m fine! Just looking!” After a couple trips, you knew exactly where to look, on the bottom shelf after Zoey’s Wonderland. You learned not to waste time perusing behind the purple curtain, lest you pick up the wrong box, and it got stuck to your hand like Velcro, and you couldn’t put it down. In-N-Out wasn’t just a fast-food joint; it was a commandment. 

The first time I emerged from behind the purple curtain, I had no idea my life had been changed forever. It had taken a detour that would someday lead to me stepping inside a ring and living out my wildest childhood dreams of being Jean-Claude Van Damme at the Kumite. As I look back on my time behind the purple curtain, I feel nothing but fondness, and my only regret is that I didn’t stay longer. 

Main Card 

Alex Pereira (-130) vs. Jamaal Hill (+110)

Pereira: DK: $8.3k | Hill: DK:$7.9k

All my day-ones know what it was like back in the day trying to get your hands on a UFC tape. You felt like Cartman in a back alley cutting a deal for Medicinal KFC. When you stepped foot in the video store, you always adhered strictly to rule #1: No Eye Contact. You had to wait until your parents were out of the house and make sure never to commit the cardinal sin of leaving the tape inside the VCR. It was risky business in the early days of the UFC. Videotapes were soon replaced by seedy chat rooms, LimeWire and Napster, and risking the Feds lobbing smoke grenades through your windows and repelling from the roof while you're trying to flush your hard drive.   

Every night is UFC 300 at Diddy’s house, but for UFC fans, UFC 300 is a once in a lifetime celebration. A celebration for all the fans. But especially the day-one's who risked it all to lay the foundation and make possible what the UFC is today. As I sit here, Mary Jay at my side, cherry and wispy as always, I’m contemplating the numbers of three hunnid Pay Per Views.   

UFC 300 By The Numbers: 

300 PPV’s x $59.99 (average) = $17,997 

I’m gonna need a payment plan, Dana. European streams, you the real MVP. How many pop-up ads closed out is that over the years? How many blue pill ads? Meet girls in your area! How was it that when I was in the Galapagos after betting a Leon TKO against Usman in the first fight, the girls in my area were the exact same? Except Susane was Susáne. And if we’re talking total UFC events, Fight Nights and such, we’re probably into Joe Rogan Podcast numbers by now. Looking to the future, who will fight at UFC 500? UFC 1k? Will people still be on Earth for UFC 1k? 

Since 2020 and the inception of the Weekly KO, I’ve written over 600k words, the MMA War and Peace. I’ve scored countless verbal TKO/KOs and had to eat a Vegas buffet’s worth of my own words over the years. But win or lose, I’m still standing here screamin’ f**k the Free World! We’re approaching one hunnid fifty issues, and I say “we” because it ain’t no fun if the homies can’t have none!

Before we get to the main event, let’s pour out a little Bud Light for those we’ve lost over the years: Wiziwig, Front Row Sports, and Bosscast. You will never be forgotten.  

Jamahal Hill vs. Alex Pereira may not be Bruce Lee vs. Frank Dux, or whatever people were expecting as the main event for UFC 300, but it’s still a fookin’ banger! Don’t forget, Jamahal Hill never lost his belt. No one wrenched that bish from his rigor mortis stiffened hands. It took an Allen Iverson cross over at a YMCA to do that. Matter of fact, quit playin’! Cue that Roy Jones Jr. “Ya’ll Must’ve Forgot!” Ya’ll Must’ve Forgot Jamahal Hill had cheeks giving standing ovations like Meek Mill’s before Hill blew his Achilles. Jamahal Hill has that Diddy look in his eyes, like someone’s about to get violated, when he steps into the cage. Eye of the Diddy. Hill fought on the Contender Series in 2019 and flew under the radar like MGK, all the way to a championship.  

Thirty Seconds to Mars. It’s a countdown to Armagedón when the bell rings, and Jamahal Hill is standing at the center of the Octagon. He’ll turn you into Matt Damon growing tomatoes on the red planet real quick. Turn you into an Elton John Rocketman real fookin’ quick. This dude has more power than thermodynamic propulsion. His style is that of the most technical, best street fighter of all time. Hill’s style couldn’t be more street if it were asphalt. His style is street like manholes. If the UFC wasn’t around, Hill would probably be on that Jorge Masvidal/Kimbo Slice arc. This isn’t a sport to Jamahal Hill; he fights like he’s Denzel, A Man on Fire, looking to exact revenge. This dude is Jordan, “And I took that personally” personified.   

Hands down, man down. Hill is a quick draw; he throws from the hips almost like he’s the second coming of Chuck Liddell. And he switches stances like __ switches styles. He can do this without losing power from either stance. Lefty or righty, Hill maintains a power rear hand in either stance. But just when you start thinking there are only hands at this function, the left round kick crashes the party like Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn. “This whole crowd is suspicious. It’s all hands in here, except for these b***hes!” The head kicks are only a DM away, and they were the turning point in his win over Father Time, Glover Teixeira. Overall, Jamahal fights to the principles of his own fundamentals. He creates rules just to break them, and even a guy like Alex Pereira, and all the career-striking accolades he owns, has fought very few Jamahal Hill’s. 

This fight is tailor-made for Jamahal Hill. He doesn’t have to worry about takedowns and can let his hands fly Willy-Nilly. The right hand will be the key for Hill. In every one of the Israel Adesanya fights, Pereira had no answer for Izzy’s right hand. Pereira parries punches out in front and tends to get hit with overhands on the regular. Even out of the southpaw stance, Hill’s lead right hook is deadly, so he can disguise it and not just throw it as a power cross. Defensively, Hill has to have an answer for Pereira’s leg kicks. If he can't check them, he has to make Pereira pay for throwing them by countering with heavy shots down the middle.   

Only grinning can hurt Alex Pereira. And Izzy’s right hand. Pereira looks like nobody loves him, and he’s okay with that. He has the most stare-down TKO/KOs in UFC history, surpassing the former GOAT, Wanderlei Silva. Ain’t shit funny, and ain’t shit sweet when it comes to Alex Pereira. This guy can KO any mammal on earth - gorillas, that buff kangaroo, Captain Ahab’s white whale, it doesn’t matter. Pereira’s left hand is a precision drone strike. It’s a heat-seeking bogey that Maverick couldn’t shake from his tail. Fook your airbrakes! Alex Pereira hands out biblical ass-whoopins. Hands out ass-whoopins like benedictions. People show up to his fights holding bleeding Alex Pereira statues. Pereira is straight out of the Iliad, where he rode around in a golden chariot, hacking and impaling people with bronze scimitars and pikes. His style is poetic, and his muse is violence. 

Like Jamahal Hill, Alex Pereira won’t have to worry about defending takedowns for the first time in two fights after Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka took him down in their respective bouts. But he will have to increase his output if he wants to keep up with Hill. Hill averages seven SLpM to Pereira’s five. But Hill commits to combinations on nearly every exchange, while Pereira is more of a one-punch striker. Pereira’s low calf kick had Izzy, Jan, and Jiri walking over hot coals. He has a knack for throwing it with no hip commitment and no tell. Pereira has to get to Hill’s legs from the jump and try to slow down his superior pace and hand speed. Also, Pereira’s main defense is mean muggin’ punches. Punches kamikaze rather than land on Alex Pereira. They turn into MK Ultra patients and jump out of windows. They make business decisions and change course. Except for Izzy’s right hand. And Jamahal’s if Pereira continues to parry punches in front of him. Pereira’s major malfunction is that he is easy to hit. He doesn’t trust his head not to take a mile if he moves it an inch. If Pereira loses containment of the pocket, Hill will get inside and unload heavy combinations that Pereira isn’t built defensively to avoid.   

Play this one for a finish. I don’t see any way it goes the distance. Pereira is 9-2 for his career with seven TKO/KOs, and Hill is 12-1 with seven TKO/KOs. Pereira is the (-130) favorite, and you’ll have to hurry if you want Hill at plus money at (+110). The only question to me about Jamahal Hill is his Achilles. He hasn’t fought since January of 2023, and the Achilles is universally known within all sports to be one of, if not the, toughest injury to come back from. It even got Kobe. But other than that, Jamahal Hill is the most dangerous fight for Pereira at light heavyweight. And I can’t get the image of Jamahal Hill sleeping him out of my mind. Alex is just too hittable.  

A main event dub streak is on the line this Saturday night after Brendan Allen pulled off as razor-close a dub as you can possibly pull off in what was, so far, the fight of the year. It capped a magical week. But this one worries me because it seems like a glaring mismatch, and it seems as if I'm alone in making that assessment. But that's okay. I love standing on an island. Jamahal Hill, via TKO, round three. Put that ish on wax.    

Props 

Pereira: TKO/KO (+120) Sub (+2000) Dec (+600)  

Hill: TKO/KO (+180) Sub (+1400) Dec (+650) 

Winner: Jamahal Hill | Method: TKO Rd.3

Weili Zhang (-500) vs. Xiaonan Yan (+375)

Zhang: DK: $9.2k | Yan: DK: $7k

Ah, shit! You know I had the duck feather calligraphy pen poised to do some writing off in brilliant, flowing medieval script. Xiaonan Yan, who is 2-2 in her last four bouts, fighting the future GOAT... I’m fighting my hand like Ash in the Evil Dead... Don’t... Do... It! Okay, Okay. I’m not gonna do what everyone thinks I’m gonna do and completely write off Xiaonan Yan! She is definitely no TLC scrub. But Weili Zhang is on that different plateau. The one with Aphrodite, Hera, Apollo, Ares, and Zeus gathered around, overlooking the happenings of mere mortals. But Xiaonan will have something for that ass if Weili Zhang gets to looking off in the distance at her legacy before standing on bidness. This should be a crunchy little banger and is definitely the best of the three big women’s bouts over the past couple of weeks.   

What came first, the Weili or the Zhang? I’ll never forget how Weili did my MMA wifey, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Weili turned Joanna into that Twilight Zone episode when the pig people act like the supermodel is hideous, an eye sore. Fook a 4-head, Weili gave Joanna a 4D head. Weili added a new axis, like when they added z to the graph in algebra. Weili turned Joanna into a fetish, a specialty category. Immediately after the fight, Joanna started trying to take over the world every day.   

“What do you want to do today, Brain?” 

“The same thing we do every day, Pinky. Try to take over the world!” 

If you married Weili Zhang, she’d carry your ass over the threshold. I’ve always thought of Weili as the female version of Mighty Mouse, Demetrious Johnson. Mighty Shrew. Weili is on that Elon Transhuman shit. She’s a cybrid created by Skynet. There’s no way a pure human can move as fast as Weili. Everything she does is fast; she gets eight hours of sleep in a blink. Her transitions, scrambles, level changes, and hand speed are world-class. Madden 99s. She not only averages six SLpM, but she also averages four ass whoopins per minute and nearly two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Her game was dipped in Flex Seal; no leaks. I think the only chance any woman on earth has of beating her has to come on the feet. Rose KO’d Weili in just over a minute and outpointed Weili in a rematch. On the mat, there’s nobody who can grapple with her. Did you see what she did to Carla Esparza, a one hundred percent wrestler? Weili’s easiest path to victory against Yan will be on the mat, dominating the top position with ground and pound while chasing subs. The only chance Yan has is on the feet, so why give her that chance? 

Xiaonan Yan has no relation to Petr Yan, but she can still throw down like Petr. In fact, she never stops throwing down. Yan is a volume-over-everything-else striker. She throws hands in her sleep and has KO’d four consecutive roommates, who were just headed to the kitchen for some midnight snacks. Xiaonan’s motto: You miss every punch you don’t throw. She throws sneaky Gaethje-like baby hooks and overhands and can strike while moving in any direction. Her specialty is retreating and countering with combinations on her way out of the pocket. But her major malfunction is that her power is like when your cellphone battery is blinking red. Yan’s first finish in ten UFC bouts came in her most recent bout against Jessica Andrade. It was like the pitcher hitting a home run. Yan has more decisions on her record than a courthouse. 

Overall, Yan is an overachiever who asks for homework over summer break. I think what she lacks most is a little more cowbell. She needs some funk in her life. She becomes too repetitive on the feet; she’s Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, reliving the same combinations over and over. But her majorest malfunction is on the mat. She pulled off some Houdini shit against Mackenzie Dern, surviving submission after submission in the second round, and eventually went on to win the fight. But Weilli is far better at getting the fight to the mat, and her ground and pound is far more vicious. Yan needs to keep this standing like Justin Beiber needs to keep his ass away from Diddy. Nah mean? Yan averages a tick under Weili in SLpM, averaging five and a half. She also rocks a seventy percent takedown defense, and her value will be in moderate to high strikes landed if she can stay on her feet for long stretches.   

Weili will be the massive (-450) favorite, and Yan will be the (+340) mangy-ass dog. The play for Weili is a finish; the hard part will be deciding between a TKO/KO and a sub. But I would lean more toward a sub, as I think Weili will spend a lot of time in the top position. Yan will likely have to take the Oregon Trail path to victory and outpoint Weili for twenty-five minutes. I’m not saying Yan has no chance; she has some sting in her punches. But I think Weili is just better in every category. Weili Zhang via rear-naked choke, round four. Put that ish on wax if you can’t roll it down a hill.   

Props 

Zhang: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+500) Dec (+165)  

Yan: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+3500) Dec (+550) 

Winner: Weili Zhang | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.4

Max Holloway (+140) vs. Justin Gaethje (-170)

Max: DK: $7.4k | Gaethje: DK:$8.8k

I have to start every Mad Max Holloway fight the same way: Max is the Osiris of this shit. Max is here 4ever, mf’s! This is ‘24? Alright, let’s do it like this: Max bombs atomically, Socrates philosophies and hypotheses. You can’t define how he be dropping these mockeries. Max is for the babies! Max Holloway is a bad mother-shut-your-mouf, but he will have to ascend to divine heights if he wants to beat the baddest mother-shut-your-mouf, Justin Gaethje. In the grand scheme of things, this fight doesn’t make much sense, but when it comes to two dudes engaging in fisticuffs, it doesn’t get more violent than this. Max’s only previous fight at lightweight was against Dustin Poirier, and that was the only time I’ve ever seen Max on wobbly legs. Max has two losses to Poirier, and Gaethje just KO’d Poirier with a head kick. I know, they say MMA math doesn’t add up, but it’s the only math I’ve ever been good at. Max is a wild muhf**ker for taking this one. But if anybody can pull off some gangster shit on the biggest card ever, it’s Max Fookin’ Holloway.   

Max Holloway has the style of a praying mantis; his hands are like mandibles that consume you. His hands are quick as blow darts, and he sticks you like pin cushions. He’ll leave your ass looking like Hellraiser. Acupuncture hands. Max is known for volume, lateral movement, and pocket presence. He invokes squatter's rights in the pocket. The neighborhood gathers around with pitchforks and torches to get him out of the pocket. And when he’s not loitering in the pocket, he’s skirting along the outside. He never stops circling and switching stances and rarely attacks up the middle. And when he’s under attack, Max mitigates damage by circling away and not allowing opponents to extend combinations. But Max’s best defense is his chin. His chin could withstand the gale forces of a Lizzo fart. His chin is built like Cadillacs in the 50s. It’s a boat, unsinkable like the Titanic before Rockefeller... never mind.   

The big question is how will Max make up for the power deficit? Justin also has the volume to match Max’s pace. Footwork. Max has to hit a DDR world record to win this one. He has to dominate the outside. Getting in a pocket firefight won’t bode well for him this time. Max is coming off a walk-off KO like Joe Carter in the ‘93 World Series, but that was the dilapidated chin of the Korean Zombie. Zooooooombieeeee! Zooooooombieeeee! I won’t lie, I cried. Max can’t win this power-for-power, but he can touch Gaethje up with extended Killer Instinct combos.   

Justin Gaethje could kill a living room. He can count to infinity and beyond. Guns carry Justin Gaethje for protection. He has a live bear lying under his coffee table. He once killed two stones with one bird. He was the best man at his own wedding. Not even Diddy can f**k with Justin Gaethje. When Justin Gaethje hits people, they unravel like 16th-century woven tapestries. They collapse like Jenga towers. They crumble like time-lapsed ancient ruins. They dissolve like vampires in sunlight. They fold like grannies in showers. And we haven’t even mentioned his leg kicks. This dude has amputated more legs than cannonballs at Gettysburg. He leaves legs looking like trees struck by lightning. He turns one of your legs into a widow. Leaves them mismatched like socks. This dude is a Menace II Society. He’s anarchy and chaos personified and works at a soap factory when he’s not fighting. 

What makes Gaethje so dangerous, so fookin’ powerful is how he rolls into his punches. Cue that Limp Bizkit “Keep Rollin!” Breathe in, now breathe out. Back up, back up. Tell me what cha ‘gone do now! Keep Rollin’, rollin’, rollin. He flows from defense to offense seamlessly by rolling with his opponent's strikes while simultaneously loading up his hooks and overhands. His special move is the low calf kick into a looping left hook. Speaking of the L-I-M-P Bizkit, Justin Gaethje Breaks Stuff with his hooks and 100 mph overhands. Orbital bones, noses, souls. He beats the brakes, fenders, hubcaps, and axles off you. This guy leaves the cage looking like a crime scene and leaves the post-fight presser in a white Bronco. They make Gaethje try on a pair of fight gloves in court. If they don’t fit...   

Gaethje’s major malfunction is that he takes damage like Meek Mill’s... you already know. There isn’t a fight in which, at some point, Gaethje doesn’t step in a pothole and start stumbling around drunkenly. But at the same time, Gaethje is at his most dangerous when he’s hurt. He doesn’t go out like Jack clinging to a wooden door; he goes out swinging all the way to the bottom. This is the craziest output matchup of all time. Both these guys average over seven SLpM. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that. This will be nothing but grand finale fireworks until the end.   

Gaethje is the (-175) favorite, and Max is the (+145) live dog. But not quite a live-ass dog. Max will have a chance in any fight he engages in, but his only other venture into this weight class didn’t go well. But Max did come on strong in the fifth round in that second Poirier fight. Likely, he will have to come on late again. Survive Gaethje’s power early and take over with movement and volume late. But at the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, I think Gaethje’s power will be too much for Max, and he will be the first to stop Max on the feet. Justin Gaethje via TKO, round four. Put that shit on wax. 

 Props 

Gaethje: TKO/KO (+150) Sub (+2200) Dec (+300)  

Max: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+1800) Dec (+225) 

Winner: Justin Gaethje | Method: TKO Rd.4

Arman Tsarukyan (-220) vs. Charles Oliveira (+180)

Tsarukyan: DK: $8.7k | Charles: DK: $7.5k

This is the undercover banger of the entire card. At the heart of this fight lies darkness and a grappler vs. grappler matchup, a classic Grappler’s Delight. Tsarukyan sounds like a Shoryuken and Hadouken Woodstock ‘99 love child, conceived when the dumpster fires broke out. The Tsarukyan is the Holy Grail of Street Fighter moves and the only thing that can defeat Mike Tyson in Punch Out! Speaking of Holy shit, as in things that are holy, not like, “Holy shit! Did you see that?” Arman Tsarukyan possesses the grappling Holy Trinity: Power, strength, and technique. The father, sun, and Arman Tsarukyan. Amen. But Tsarukyan will be up against the deadliest submission Van Gogh the sport has ever seen in Charles Oliveira. This is a man who walked the Green Mile, fighting Chandler, Poirier, and Gaethje, and finished all of them. Remember that shit I wrote about last matchup? It’s nothin’, homie. It’s nothin’. This shit right here, homie. This shit right here, homie. Right here. This shit, homie. This shit here, homie, is a fookin’ banger! 

Trunk Muzik Returns. Arman Tsarukyan will pick your ass up, stuff you in a trunk, and cruise around town with the trunk banging like he’s got twin Beneil Dariushs in the back. He packs you like trips.   

“Swim, Swammy, slippy, slappy, Swanson...” 

“Maybe it’s on the briefcase.” 

“Samsonite! I was way off!” 

Arman will slam your ass and store you in the proper overhead storage compartment like a carry-on. Wheel your ass around while he flags down an Uber. Arman has some of the best level changes in the game. Not only does he hover an inch off the ground when he shoots, but he has the best setups. Tsarukyan hides his level changes behind heavy power punches. As he throws, he shoots nearly simultaneously. And when he gets you on the mat, forgetaboutit. His top control is heavier than depression. You need a prescription for Zoloft to get him off you. Arman likes to slowly simmer you over low/medium heat for about a round before fully cooking you. Well done; no pink in the middle. Send it back to the kitchen type-shit. He turns into Bill the Butcher, and elbows are his cleavers. He’ll carve a porterhouse out of your ass real quick. The last place you want to be on earth is beneath Arman Tsarukyan. 

On the feet, Tsarukyan is all right-hand everything. All he needs in this life of sin is his right hand and left round kick. Tsarukyan’s rear-leg round kick is his best weapon on the feet. Although he lacks elite footwork and doesn’t put together combinations smoothly, he has a big right hand and left hook that can sleep anybody. All that being said, Arman’s path to victory is on the mat. Oliveira’s kryptonite on the mat is heavy ground and pound. Go back to the Paul Felder and Makhachev fights. Although Oliveira is very hittable, he’s long and has far more diverse striking. Tsarukyan is 21-3 with noine TKO/KOs and five subs and averages just over three and a half SLpM.   

I always have to say this about Charles Oliveira from the jump, get it out of the way early. If you give Oliveira a reason, he’ll start periscoping, looking all over for an exit. Early in his career, quit knocked on the door, and Oliveira opened it a crack and said, “Who is it.” Once you allow quit to get one foot inside the door, you will never be able to close it again. Nobody can convince me that Charles didn’t give Makhachev that choke after Makhachev sat him down. But then there are times, against Chandler, Poirier, and Gaethje, when he mounts 28-3 halftime deficit comebacks. Oliveira nearly loses every fight that he wins. He waits until the L falls in love with him before he breaks it off. He leaves the L at the altar. He dines and dashes on the L. He doesn’t want the sweet taste of victory until he has sampled defeat first. His fights are Rocky 7,8,9... “Yo, Adreanaldinhoooooo!” (Cuz he’s Brazilian). He needs the montage music to start playing before he starts kicking ass.   

On the feet, Charles beats you down the middle with nasty teeps and standing knees. Keep an eye on those knees; they will be wide open all night long when Tsarukyan level changes. They are a natural takedown defense. I’m telling you, the standing knee KO is live, pawtnas. I ain’t your pawtna, pal! His hands are Zeus-guided bronze-plated spears that will fit perfectly between Tsarukyan’s shoulders. But Oliveira’s major malfunction is his lack of head movement. He wouldn’t even shake his head if Diddy asked him to be Bad Boy 4 Life. Charles stands upright at attention with his head served on a silver platter. The key for Oliveira will be on the mat and finding a median between sub-hunting and getting back to his feet – making sure he doesn’t spend too much time on his back. 

Charles is 34-9 with ten TKO/KOs and twenty-fookin-one subs, and a nearly identical three and a half SLpM as Tsarukyan. The Fantasy value for both fighters is a finish. I think Oliveira is mostly likely to finish by TKO/KO on the feet, and Tsarukyan can finish by any method from the top position. Of Oliveira’s noine career L’s, four came via TKO/KO and four by sub. When he loses, he tends to get finished. Tsarukyan is the (-235) favorite, and Oliveira is the live-ass (+190) dog. When I see plus money Charles Oliveira, I bet him. Underdog Oliveira is an automatic bet. But I think Tsarukyan’s top pressure will be too much. Arman Tsarukyan via rear-naked choke, round three. Wax on, wax off.   

Props 

Tsarukyan: TKO/KO (+130) Sub (+700) Dec (+300)   

Oliveira: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+450) Dec (+850) 

Winner: Arman Tsarukyan | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Jiri Prochazka (-115) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-115)

Jiri: DK: $8k | Rakic: DK:$8.2k

Ain’t no way, no how, I’m putting Bo Nickal and Cody Brundage above this fight. I’m sorry, I agree with the internet trolls. I’ll clamor beneath a bridge with them on this one. This fight is technically the featured fight on the prelims, but Homie don’t play that. The Drunken Master is back, and so is Aleksandar Rakic, who hasn’t fought in two years after blowing out his knee against Jan Blachowicz. This is a wild matchup that could be a main event for any other card. Before Rakic went full D.Rose, he was on the verge of a title shot. A dub over the former champ will put him right back in the mix, and a dub for Jiri will do the same. This fight is the real shit, the shit that makes ‘em feel shit and worthy of being on the main card of UFC 300. 

Jiri Prochazka is the Drunken Master, the MMA version of Emanuel Agustus, the man who gave Floyd Mayweather the toughest fight of Mayweather’s career. Jiri is the inebriated master. I’m talkin’ liver failure. He fights like he’s on the last leg of a pub crawl. This guy is a modern fighter with an ancient soul. He’s straight out of the ice age when homies had to fight Sabretooth tigers and mastodons and shit. Jiri is the real-life Encino Man, a frozen Neanderthal thawed with a hair dryer and brought back to life. This dude is feral and moves like an animal. Jiri switches stances and switch-steps and uses odd, whimsical movements to disguise strikes. One second, you think he’s geeking at a rave, and the next, he’s blasting you in the face with a spinning back elbow. Be water, my friend. Jiri flows. When he’s at his best, Jiri’s movements hypnotize you, and you get caught spectating and not fighting. You don’t know what’s coming next because Jiri doesn’t know what he’s throwing next.   

We didn’t see Jiri at his best against Alex Pereira. He never found his groove and generally looked rusty. His movement wasn’t there. Pre-shoulder injury Jiri was untamable. He was the tiger that ate Siegfried’s ass. Or was it Roy’s ass? But against Pereira, he looked domesticated. The key for Jiri against Rakic will be staying on his feet. He proved he can grapple offensively and defensively against Glover, but Glover takes more risks on the mat than Rakic. Rakic doesn’t provide many opportunities for creating space and getting back to your feet like Glover does. Jiri needs to keep this standing. And he can do that if he finds that funk he had before the Pereira fight. Jiri is 29-4 with twenty-five TKO/KOs and three subs and averages just under five and a half SLpM to Rakic’s four.   

Aleksandar Rakic hurts people. Hurt Locker. Like Hacksaw Jim Duggan, Alexander Rakic beats people up. Rakic is known most for when he had Joanna’s 4D head growing out of his shin when he fought Volkan Oezdemir. It looked like Quato from Total Recall growing out of his shin. On the feet, Rakic fights long. He has rearview mirror hands: Hands Are Closer Than They Appear. Rakic has deceptive reach, and his best weapon is the Scorpion “Get over here!” 1-2. And when he lets his hands go, Rakic has scary power. But he has terrible defense. He uses a half-ass, lazy Philly Shell. A get a job-ass Philly Shell. A Sleep ‘till noon-ass Philly Shell. He tends to rear back with his chin sticking straight in the air in the face of punches.  

Rakic's calf kicks will be the difference on the feet. Pereira destroyed Jiri’s legs from the jump, and Rakic is just as surgical as Pereira with leg kicks. His leg kicks are amputation without Novocain. Cue that “Novacane” by Frank Ocean. “Novocain baaaaaayby.” Rakic can stand and bang with Jiri, but his path to victory is securing the top position and getting back to his heavy ground and pound days. The red flag for Rakic is that he might be a Toyota Frontrunner. He might be a Minnesota Timberwolves customer service rep selling Wolf tickets. Before the Thiago Santos fight, Rakic looked like the future champ. But then he started playing it safe, riding out top control without creating damage. I know only a stake through the heart or a silver bullet can kill Jiri. But I don’t know if that is true for Rakic. Rakic is 14-3 for his career with noine TKO/KOs and one sub.   

Rakic is the (-120) dog, and Rakic is the slightest of dogs, returning (+105). This is the definition of a toss-up. Jiri is the bigger finishing threat, but I like playing a decision one way or the other. Rakic will likely win by stealing rounds with takedowns and top control time, and Jiri will likely win by picking apart Rakic from the outside. Damn, I’m torn on this one. I have no idea what to expect from either guy. Aleksandar Rakic via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props 

Jiri: TKO/KO (+180) Sub (+1000) Dec (+650)   

Rakic: TKO/KO (+225) Sub (+1600) Dec (+275) 

Winner: Aleksandar Rakic | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Jamahal Hill ($7.9k): Nobody hits like this guy in the light heavyweight division. Yeah, Pereira has that nuclear-left hook, but Jamahal Hill has that in every punch he throws. Pereira throws from orthodox angles, straight from the face, and Jamahal throws from the waist/chest and alternates between wide hooks/overhands and down-the-middle traditional punches. Also, Pereira can be KO’d; I haven’t seen Jamahal Hill even blink after a heavy shot. I think, stylistically, this fight is tailor-made for Jamahal Hill like Men’s Fashion Depot suits. The only reason I’m only dropping an Andy Jack on Hill and not the Thunderdome, the world-class training facility in my one-car garage, is because Hill is coming off an Achilles tear. He’s just a little over a year removed from the injury and that’s not always enough time to regain your confidence that it won’t snap again on some Kill Bill type-shit.  

Sodiq Yusuff ($7.7k): The last time we saw Sodiq Yusuff, he was tumbling head over heels down the side of Machu Picchu after tripping on the final step. He had Edson Barboza dead to rights in the first round, all but an apparition with a spooky little urban legend to accompany his demise. But then his finger cramped while he was unloading the clip. He gassed, and Barboza proceeded to crack Yusuff’s ass like the Liberty Bell for the next four rounds. Yusuff will now find himself in a classic grappler vs. striker matchup against the dude who has been flying dangerously close to the sun, Diego Lopes. This kid is a dynamo on the mat, but he can be got on the feet. Yusuff rocks a sixty-two percent takedown defense like consignment clothes, which isn’t great. But if Lopes struggles to relocate the fight consistently, Yusuff has the speed and power to finish him on the feet. Historically, Yusuff isn’t a great fight-ender, but I think this matchup on the feet is built for a Yusuff finish.   

Jim Miller ($7.6k): This pick hurts. Jim Miller’s opponent is my current favorite fighter, Bobby King Green, aka Bobby Digital. This matchup is fookin’ dope, but it would’ve been more so five to ten years ago. This one hurts because Bobby hasn’t looked the same since the Jared Gordon fight. I know he KO’d Grant Dawson in thirty seconds, but his footwork, hand speed, and chin looked suspect against Tony Ferguson and Jailin Turner. Bobby can’t take a shot anymore, and it looks like his hands and feet lost a step. “Earthworm” Jim Miller has lost a step over the years, too, but he still has that Quagmire giggity-goo left hand- all veiny and shit. Going back to 2018, Miller has finished all noine of his dubs, including three TKO/KOs. He’s still finishing fights on the feet. If Bobby bobs when he should have weaved, it’s a wrap. Wrap it up, B. I’m picking Bobby to win, but my gut tells me, Jim “F**kin” Miller’s left hand will have something to say about that. Fantasy-wise, Miller is a dual threat. He can end this on the mat, where he has twenty career finishes, or on the feet, where he has seven.  

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Holly Holm ($6.9k): Deja fookin’ vu. Nearly ten years ago, I placed my first Andy Jackson ever on a Holly Holm TKO over Ronda Rousey. I’ve been living in the hills of Calabasas ever since. It’s crazy how things come full circle. Holm will once again be fighting a Judo hype train, and like Matt Hughes, she ain’t getting off the tracks. Ten years ago, I saw black holes in Ronda Rousey’s striking. Those black holes were swallowed up by the black holes in Kayla Harrison’s striking. Holly isn’t easy to get to the mat, rocking a near eighty percent takedown defense, and she will have a massive technical advantage on the feet. When Harrison struggled to get Larissa Pacheco to the mat in the 2022 PFL finals, she had nothing to fall back on. Harrison is Rousey 2.0. Rousey’s downfall was that she only had one move, a hip toss, to get opponents to the mat. When that failed, she had nothing. Harrison has far more diverse takedowns and ground and pound than Rousey, but they are similar on the feet. If this were a five-round scrap, Holly would be automatic. The fact that it’s only three rounds makes it a little trickier because Holly will likely have to concede the first round on her back. But after that, I like her chances to take over on the feet if Harrison can’t get the early finish.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Jim Miller (+145): I’m a glutton for punishment. I love kicking myself while I’m down. I have a bad feeling about this fight for Bobby Green. He hasn’t looked like the guy who pieced up Drew Dober for nearly two rounds (then got KO’d) in several fights. Bobby’s M.O. was making you miss and making you pay. But now he can’t make you miss. And his chin has cracks like the cover of Get Rich or Die Trying. Jim Miller’s left hand has still been catching bodies, and he still has his bread and butter, his grappling. I thought the odds would be reversed and Bobby would be the dog, so Jim Miller at plus money for this matchup is a steal.   

Charles Oliveira (+180): Oliveira was a slight dog against Poirier and Dariush, and we know how those fights ended. Plus money Charles is automatic like plus money Derrick Lewis. It’s almost sacrilegious to not bet on Charles Oliveira when he’s the betting dog. On the feet, Charles tends to take heavy damage, and Arman Tsarukyan will have a slight power advantage. But Oliveira has far more diverse/technical striking. Even though he’s a submission Bob Ross from his back, the key for Oliveira will be not spending too much time sub-hunting and spending more time getting back to his feet. Oliveira’s kryptonite on the mat is guys with heavy ground and pound like Tsarukyan which is why Tsarukyan is the favorite. But on the feet, Oliveira is the slight favorite. Arman has wide shoulders and punches to match. Oliveira’s straight poleaxing strikes will beat Tsarukyan down the middle in 50/50 exchanges. I like a TKO/KO finish for Oliveira. If the fight goes the distance, it will favor Tsarukyan controlling the top position.  

Jamahal Hill (+110): Plus money for a KO artist like Jamahal Hill is like finding a Michelangelo at a garage sale. Hill has to have a plan for Pereira’s leg kicks. Check or counter or both. He has to make Pereira pay for throwing them. Also, Pereira is far more hittable than Hill. Jamahal isn’t Floyd by any means, but he’s shifty, attacks from angles, and has more wrinkles than just the spelling of his name. And Pereira attacks straight up the middle with his chin so high in the air they have to put little blinking red lights on it so planes don't crash into it. Also, Hill’s punches were engineered to circumvent Pereira’s guard. Alex tends to deflect shots out in front of him, leaving his chin vulnerable to hooks and overhands. Cue that beautiful Israel Adesanya right-hand footage. And Jamahal Hill has that DMX Grand Champ dog in him, and he’s a Champ who never lost his belt. If you plan on playing Hill, play the TKO.   

Pick ‘Em 

*Good Luck. These are all nothing but toss-ups. 

Bo Nickal (-2000) vs. Cody Brundage (+1000) 

Winner: Bo Nickal 

Method: Rear-Naked Rd.1 

 

Calvin Kattar (+135) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-165) 

Winner: Kalvin Kattar 

Method: Decision 

 

Holly Holm (+300) vs. Kayla Harrison (-390) 

Winner: Holly Holm 

Method: Decision 

 

Sodiq Yusuff (+120) vs. Diego Lopes (-145) 

Winner: Sodiq Yusuff 

Method: Decision 

 

Jailin Turner (-240) vs. Renato Moicano (+195) 

Winner: Jalin Turner 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

 

Jessica Andrade (-135) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+105) 

Winner: Marina Rodriguez 

Method: Decision 

 

Bobby Green (-175) vs. Jim Miller (+145) 

Winner: Bobby Green 

Method: Decision 

 

Deiveson Figueiredo (-305) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+240) 

Winner: Deiveson Figueiredo 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1