Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+155)

Pantoja: DK: $8.8k | Erceg: DK:$7.4k

Steve Erceg is a man of many faces – the creation of the Bene Tleilax, a Face Dancer.  A form of shapeshifter, Erceg can mimic the appearance and mannerisms of any human he wishes to replicate, making him a versatile infiltrator/assassin. To date, only a couple of his forms have been confirmed, and it remains that he could be anyone. He could be writing this right meow. Yes, he could be me, having collected my memories and replicated my style through the slightest physical contact, a brushing of shoulders in passing, a fist bump – anything. So far, his cataloged forms include Aaron Rogers, Ross from Friends, and Frank Grimes, Homer’s coworker whose jealousy of Homer inadvertently led to “Grimey’s” untimely passing. But his most notorious form is that of a JAG – just a guy. A face in the crowd you’d pass without acknowledgment – a guy you would never suspect of being twenty-five minutes away from being a cage-fighting world champion.   

In less than a year, and in just three promotional bouts, Steve Erceg is challenging for an undisputed belt. He’s the UFC Jeremy Lin, dropping twenty-five points and nearly recording a triple-double in his debut – a dub against the top fifteen-ranked David Dvorak last June. He followed it up with a twenty-eight-point performance against Alessandro Costa, and a career-high thirty-eight in his most recent bout, a second-round TKO of Matt Schnell, earning him a shot at the current champ, Alexandre Pantoja, aka Toja Cat.   

The man they call a boy, Astro Boy, will end your season quicker than astroturf. He looks like PGA Tour Aaron Rogers. “A-a-Ron, where are you? Where is A-a-Ron right now?” He’s on hole thirteen, handing out Bob Barker ass whoopins. He looks like Aaron Rogers on his Delonte West arc. Delonte East. To bullies, Steve Erceg looks like free lunch money. They’re out here salivating, already planning how they will spend that buck fifty. But don’t let any of that fool you. This kid has some serious skills without any glaring holes. He’s an Uno reverse card thrown into the middle of the flyweight deck. If Toja Cat gets to showing his ass like shit’s sweet, Erceg could unexpectedly change the direction of the entire division. 

The key for Steve Erceg against Alexandre Pantoja will be surviving the first round. The first round against Toja is like paddling out to a one-hundred-foot tsunami. If Erceg doesn’t give up his back and get choked out within the first five to seven minutes, this will turn into a Goose and Maverick dogfight. Feeling out process? Toja Cat doesn’t have one. It’s straight to the nightcap after the handshake. No Diddy. Erceg has to avoid engaging Pantoja in wild extended exchanges in the early minutes, when Pantoja’s wild, yet heavy hands are the most potent.   

Erceg’s window of opportunity will be wide open, the curtains billowing gently in the spring breeze, down the middle, between Toja’s wide hooks. He just has to crawl though it like the Golden State Killer – attack Toja with quick two-punch combos down the pike. Erceg chokes up on his punches - shortens them, making them quicker to the target. But Erceg’s best attribute on the feet is his accuracy; he’s got hands like Teucer’s arrows. He can throw a quick three-punch combo and land on the exact same freckle or mole with each strike.  

But the key to beating Toja Cat is grappling. Pantoja is the best pure grappler in the division with excellent takedowns. We often see elite grapplers who can’t wrestle. Toja can do both. Erceg rocks tank tops in the winter but keeps a trick up his sleeves. He’s a solid wrestler/grappler too. In fact, I would say Erceg is a grappler before a striker. Erceg is 12-1 with two TKO/KOs and six submissions. He has excellent top control and scrambles from his back. I don’t see his offensive grappling coming into play until the later rounds when Toja tends to fade, but his defensive grappling will keep him alive and help him weather the early Toja storm.   

I’ll tell you straight up: The value in Pantoja is in an early finish. Pantoja sits up in the luxury box with the headset on calling nothing but zero blitzes like he’s playing Madden on Rookie mode. This guy gets flagged for encroachment during the glove touch. Toja runs that Mike D’Antoni fast break. He’s a premature striker. I’m talking, he handles business during the phony plot set up, before the babysitter even... you already know. This guy doesn’t waste any time romancing himself - lighting the Yankee candles and dimming the lights. As soon as the bell rings, he's in your face with punches and kicks, and pushing you up against the cage, looking to pick you up like he’s consoling a toddler. I think there’s a good chance Toja could overwhelm Erceg in the opening minutes, similar to how he did Alex Perez. My son’s tee ball team has a tougher strength of schedule than Steve Erceg. Toja Cat will be, by far, the best fighter Erceg has ever faced. While Toja Cat has broken off many a Steve Ercegs.   

While Toja lacks some technique on the feet and relies mostly on volume and aggression, he’s a surgeon on the mat. He’s a backpacker like Dilated Peoples. A backpacker with a death wish like Evan Tanner. Toja’s back mount is solitary confinement, a twenty-three-and-a-half-hour lockdown. And when he’s on top of you, it’s like fighting in a dream, your limbs feel like they’re one hunnid pounds each. Toja’s top control is like quicksand, the more you struggle beneath him, the quicker you sink. It’s like being stuck in tar pits – they just find your fossils in the cage years later. Cue that “Gravel Pit” by the Wu. Check out Toja’s gravel pit. Toja’s top control is like being tossed down Buffalo Bill’s pit. “It puts the lotion on the skin, or else it gets the double leg again.” Of course, that’s until he starts to fade.  

Around the ten-to-twelve-minute mark, Toja tends to hit the wall like guys named Kyle wearing Monster Energy shirts. Hits the wall like when Andy got fired: 

“If you say no one more time, you’re fired. So, is there anything else you want to say?” 

“No.” 

There’s a clear change in Toja’s demeanor about halfway through a five-round fight. But even when he fades, he still manages to land takedowns and eke out close rounds. Every time Brandon Royval went for the kill, sensing Toja was gassed, Toja used Royval’s aggression against him and ducked under Royval’s strikes to score a takedown and mitigate damage. Erceg will have to be patient if Toja ever starts to fade. Don’t over pursue – choose your shots wisely, quality over quantity.  

The numbers: Toja is 27-5 with eight TKO/KO’s and ten subs. Both fighters average around four and a half SLpM and Toja averages just under two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes to Erceg’s just over one and a half. On the feet, Toja will have the power advantage, but Erceg is the slicker, more intricate striker. On the mat, Toja will be a sub-threat the entire fight, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Erceg starts to wind up in the top position in the later rounds. Toja Cat will be the (-240) favorite, and Erceg will be the (+195) live dog. This kid has some skills. The opening minutes will be the key. If Erceg can survive Toja’s early blitzes and back control, he can steal this fight with cleaner strikes and his own top control. But my overall feeling is that this fight might be a little too soon for Erceg. He’s on a continental flight a few hours ahead of his time. A true number-one contender fight at the very least would have served Erceg well before this leap in competition.  

We rebounded from a UFC 300 blowout with a solid fookin’ night last week. More importantly, the main event picks are back in the winning column after Alex Perez showed up and showed out with a second-round KO dub. I feel confident this week, but then again, I feel confident every damn week. Alexandre Pantoja via rear-naked choke, round two. Put that ish on wax.   

Props 

Pantoja: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+300) Dec (+200)  

Erceg: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+1200) Dec (+450) 

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Jose Aldo (+125) vs. Jonathan Martinez (-150)

Aldo: DK: $7.9k | J-Mart: DK: $8.3k

Guess who’s back. Jose Aldo is back like Jordan rocking the 4-5 and a Wizards jersey. The legend is back to add one more title run to his Hall of Fame career. But he’ll be up against Pastor Troy, Castor’s little brother who specializes in kicking your legs... off. You already know what time it is. Bust out the Brett Favre Coppertone compression socks lest you wind up like Rick James crawling across your living room floor, hauling two deceased legs behind you. Leg for a leg, we can all go crippled. Since “retiring” in 2022, Aldo went 2-0-1 in professional boxing, but it seems like boxing wasn’t violent enough to scratch his sadistic itch. And Jonathan Martinez is one leg amputation away from being considered one of the best leg kickers in the sport's history, having already won two UFC bouts via leg kick TKO. This one right here is an absolute banger.  

My theory for Jose’s sudden return is that he realized there’s no shame in losing to Merab Dvalishvili. After Merab went on to trounce Petr Yan and Henry Cejudo, Aldo didn’t feel so bad. And you can take the dog out of the fight, but you can never take the fight out of the dog. Jose is still Jose Alpo; he still has that Favela dog in him. Aldo is the original MMA Scarface; he looks like he escaped Arkham Asylum and has the Joker scar to prove it. A minimalist fighter, Aldo is a boxer with leg kicks and Stone Henge takedown defense. That’s it, just meat and potatoes. There’s nothing fancy about Aldo’s game. His special move is the 2-3 (cross-hook) and the liver shot is his fatality. This guy is on some urban legend shit; he digs out livers like bathtubs and a Motel 6. Jose Aldo is the real Liver King – the real Iron Man. Aldo is one of the best pure boxers in the game, relying on speed (which is still there) and subtle head movement in the pocket.   

Every time he throws, Aldo moves his head off the centerline, anticipating return fire. Aldo isn’t with all that fancy footwork, switch steps, lateral movement, and such. No, he stands flatfooted directly in front of you and uses subtle slips & rips and same-time counters to beat you to the punch. But his best weapon, his leg kicks, have been mysteriously M.I.A. for several years now. They make an appearance once or twice a year like going to church, but he doesn’t throw them in volume like he did in his early years. I think there was an American Pickers episode where they found Aldo’s leg kicks at a garage sale somewhere in Utah. Aldo will have to knock the dust off those bad boys against Jonathan Martinez. He will have to fight leg kicks with leg kicks. But unlike most great leg kickers, Aldo is the best ever at defending them. If Aldo can take away J-Mart's best weapon, the leg kick, Aldo will have a massive advantage. J-Mart's hands aren’t nearly as crispy and dangerous as Aldo’s.  

But that will be a tough task. J-Mart might be the best leg kicker in the game. Yes, better than Aldo and Gaethje. Martinez has serrated shins. The damage from J-Mart's leg kicks looks like shark bites, chunks of flesh missing. You’re left putting your legs back together like puzzle pieces. Your Humpty Dumpty-ass legs have to be put back together again when J-Mart is done with you. Hit that “Humpty Dumpty” with 2Pac background dancing. It’s like NASCAR pitstops between rounds with the pit crew changing out your legs for fresh ones when you fight J-Mart. What makes J-Mart's leg kicks stand out is that he attacks inside and outside no matter what stance you use. He is a natural southpaw, but he can go orthodox and land leg kicks just as efficiently. In his last bout, he beat the tenth-grade beard off Adriane Yanez; he beat the ñ off Yanez's name.  

But Martinez does have some major malfunctions. His hair has more volume than his hands. And J-Mart only uses the right side of his body for tattoos. He’s a Gus Fring striker to the fullest, only using the left side of his body to attack. He’s the Harvey Dent of the UFC. Also, Martinez bursts like pipes under pressure. You can beat him with pace and volume. Against Aldo, Martinez may be forced to let his hands go more if Jose comes out checking every leg kick as Aldo did against Pedro Munhoz when he put on a leg kick defense clinic. Martinez has excellent boxing, but he’s more of a one-punch striker while Aldo attacks with combinations. J-Mart risks falling behind on the scorecards if he doesn’t try to match Aldo's volume with the hands.   

The numbers: Aldo is 31-8 for his career with seventeen TKO/KOs and one lonely sub. And J-Mart is 19-4 with noine TKO/KOs and two subs. Surprisingly, J-Mart is the higher output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM to Aldo’s three and a half. But that is because J-Mart throws high-volume leg kicks and they add up quickly. Martinez will be the (-155) favorite, and Aldo will be the (+130) live-ass dog. When Aldo retired, he didn’t look like he had lost a step. He just looked burnt out chasing a title that seemed impossible to reach after losing to Merab. He’s the better boxer with more power and speed than Martinez. But I’ve been getting burned on guys coming back from lengthy layoffs. Martinez has been active within the sport and looks to be peaking. I think the play for each guy is a decision. Jose hasn’t finished a fight since 2019, and if J-Mart can’t land leg kicks at the rate he is accustomed to, I don’t think his hands are good enough to finish Aldo. I say all that to say this: There’s too much value on plus money Aldo to turn my back on him. Jose Aldo via decision. Put it on wax. 

Props 

Martinez: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1400) Dec (+140)  

Aldo: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+2500) Dec (+200) 

Winner: Jose Aldo | Method: Decision

Anthony Smith (+375) vs. Vitor Petrino (-500)

Smith: DK: $6.8k | Petrino: DK:$9.4k

Will the real Anthony Smith please stand up? Please stand up. We saw 32-bit Anthony Smith swoop on Smith's sloppy seconds last weekend when Bogdan Guskov KO’d Ryan Spann. But Smith has his own problems to worry about. In his last bout, Tong Po, Khalil Rountree, beat the brakes, mufflers, and the fookin’ hood off Anthony Smith. Khalil had Smith looking like Mater in this bish. But there’s no shame in that. Khalil is now lined up to fight Jamahal Hill and could be looking at a title shot if he wins. Smith will be cast in his familiar gatekeeping role at the Bridge of Death when he faces Vitor Petrino. In many ways, this is a step down in competition for Smith. But hopefully, he doesn’t get to thinking shit is sweet because Petrino is dangerous in his own right and has yet to taste defeat – an acquired taste that few develop. But every Anthony Smith fight turns into a violent affair, and this one will be no different.  

Vitor Petrino, get your alibi ready. Defend yourself at all times takes on a new meaning when you fight Anthony Smith. It means lawyering up. Anthony Smith turns into Liam Neeson, “I will find you…” when he steps into the cage. Smith will accuse you of committing atrocities you weren’t even alive during just to put a little fire in his belly. Johnny Walker is still locked up in legal battles since Smith accused him mid-fight of kidnapping Smith’s family. Smith has toys in the attic, but that’s almost a prerequisite when making a living prizefighting. Darkness is Smith’s only homie. He was like Vin Diesel in Pitch Black as a kid. Exit light, enter Anthony Smith.   

If you can survive the head game against Smith you have to deal with a sneaky good striker and a nearly elite grappler. On the mat, Smith reminds me of a huge Charles Oliveira. Smith has fourteen career subs to go along with twenty TKO/KOs, including submissions from his guard. But like Charles, Smith isn’t nearly effective from his guard when you attack him with heavy ground and pound. On the feet, Smith traffics his hands across state lines. He throws nothing but long, wide hooks and nasty leg kicks. His major malfunction on the feet is that he lacks defensive instincts. Elite strikers have exit plans when they finish throwing; they roll off their punches or step off at angles. Not Smith. He strikes, resets, and strikes again. Rinse and repeat. His cadence is predictable, and he is always vulnerable down the middle at the end of his strikes.   

Vitor Petrino is ED-209 set to Octagon pacification mode.  

“Put down your hands! You have twenty seconds to comply!” 

I think you better comply before Petrino is authorized to use deadly force and pumps you full of left hooks and right overhands. This guy could knock you out just by shadowboxing too closely. His leg kicks sound like Redwoods falling in the forest. If Vitor Petrino kicks your legs in the Octagon and no one is around to hear it... His best weapon is the Ryan Garcia check hook minus the quantum leap hand speed. But he has excellent timing, waiting for you to load up on your rear hand to beat you to the punch. Although he has crazy power, he’s all straight lines. No wrinkles or curves. He’s a dragster built to sprint straight down the runway with a little parachute shooting out of his ass to slow him down between exchanges.   

The key to beating ED-209 is turning him into a single-discipline fighter. Without his wrestling/grappling, Petrino is just kind of average all around. His bread and butter is his power wrestling which lends his striking more effectiveness. From the top position, Petrino is a bully. “Stop hitting yourself! Stop hitting yourself!” He ground and pounds you with your own limbs and makes use of indigenous peoples of America burns on your arms, Charlie horses, and that evil shit where you let spit hang from your mouth an inch away from someone’s face before sucking it back up. Half the time the spit bungee snaps, and it falls on their face. Petrino kneads you like pizza dough and tosses you in the air like a deep dish. I got the munchies, homies. But if he can’t relocate the fight to the mat and can’t overwhelm with his power early on the feet, he becomes very beatable.  

Petrino is 11-0 with seven TKO/KOs and one sub and averages just over two and a half SLpM to Anthony Smith’s just under three and a half. The key for Petrino will be getting the fight to the mat and neutralizing Smith's guard with consistent ground and pound. The plays for these guys are tricky. I think a finish for either is highly likely, but I can also see them coming out fast and sputtering to the finish line if they fail to finish the fight early. But a TKO/KO is in play for both fighters. I would give the slight finishing edge to Petrino. Smith is coming in off taking a vicious beating and eventual TKO, and that came just a few months ago in December. Petrino is the heavy (-500) favorite, and Smith is the mangy (+375) dog. High risk/high reward, that’s Anthony Smith. He can win this fight, but the miles are piling up on his chin and I don’t know if he can take a Petrino bomb anymore. But I’m going to play a decision. Vitor Petrino via decision. On wax.  

 Props 

Petrino: TKO/KO (+100) Sub (+500) Dec (+215)  

Smith: TKO/KO (+1100) Sub (+1400) Dec (+1100) 

Winner: Vitor Petrino | Method: Decision

Michel Pereira (-650) vs. Ihor Potieria (+450)

Pereira: DK: $9.6k | Potieria: DK: $6.6k

Michel Pereira was a major leaguer identifying as a little leaguer, crushing five-hundred-foot homers on a two-hundred-foot fence when he was fighting in the welterweight division. After two fights, he has only spent two minutes as a middleweight, finishing Michal Oleksiejczuk and Andre Petroski in that span. As scary as he was at welterweight, he’s even more so at middleweight. If he beats Ihor Potieria, we need an MVP vs. Michel Pereira main event. Or how about Pereira vs. Pereira. Michel vs. Alex (fire emojis). But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This guy, Ihor Potieria, has two Epcot Centers swangin’ between his legs. A few weeks ago, Potieria stepped in on short notice against a certified monster and dominated him. Now he’s stepping up to the plate to take hacks against a guy who I’m sure nobody is lining up to fight. Ihor Potieria earns All Randy Marsh honors of the week, and this one will be another banger. 

Michel Pereira is the Tarzan of the UFC. This guy swings from trees and beats on his chest. He’s the Jungle Book kid all grown up. He started his UFC career as a Cirque du Soleil trapeze artist and morphed into a title contender in two weight classes. Pereira is a rare high-output one-punch striker. His strikes are a beat off a combination. It’s like he starts spitting his bars after the downbeat and finishes after the snare. He uses every inch of his reach to punch holes in you like Shawshank Redemption. They can lead jail breaks through the hole in your chest. He skewers you with his hands and adds some pineapples and zucchinis. Matter of fact, hit that Outkast “Skew It on the Bar-B!” Michel impales you with his hands from clear across the Octagon and never stops moving. Even when he’s gassed.  

Pereira’s major malfunction is that he fades like Great Clips. But he never stops throwing. It seems like he always finds a way to stay on his bike, circling the Octagon, and pumping long-range kicks and punches at you even when the needle is on E. The key to beating Pereira is getting inside and forcing him to exchange in the pocket and beating him down the middle. You gotta stand up to Pereira. Like confronting a bear in the wild, you have to make yourself big and scream at that mf. Ihor will have to take risks and cut the cage to get inside the pocket on Pereira where he is the most vulnerable. Pereira is 30-11 for his career with eleven TKO/KOs and eight subs. He’s also riding an eight-fight dub streak, which should be noine.   

After his parents named him Ihor, there’s nothing you can do to hurt Ihor Potieria. Even when the UFC throws him to the wolves. He’s the chum they use to lure great whites to breach the surface. He’s the foam seal. They drive around with Ihor in tow, waiting for Michel Pereira to strike. But that plan backfired when Ihor had his best performance against Robert Bryczek. I can’t lie to ya; I thought Bryczek was gonna send Ihor to Bellator. But Ihor came out on some pool sharp type-shit. He was like Uncle Drew schooling kids at Rucker Park. Don’t let his looks fool you. Ihor is like your Grammy’s station wagon with a V-8, smoking you off the line. He's like putting a hemi in a Beetle. This guy is decked out head to toe in average apparel. He looks like he shops at Forever 42. But he has stealth mode hand speed, and subtle, shifty footwork. Against Bryczek, Potieiria put on a range Master Class, sliding just outside Bryczek’s punches and countering with quick two-punch combos. I’m gonna do it... don’t do it... I’m gonna do it. Potieria has a little O’Malley in him. He fights long, rolls off strikes, and has the little O’Malley step back counter.   

He even has some O’Malley swag. It just hit me. Potieria is out here looking like Bad Ass Post Malone - Ray Fillet. Cue that “White Iverson!” Potieria will swag on you, homies. He lands a few punches and starts to feel just like a Rockstar. In his early UFC fights, he got caught showing his ass a little too much like Fart Man, but in recent bouts, he has shown more tactics and less reckless abandon. The key for Potieria will be pace and combinations. He has to get Pereira to the halfway point and outwork him. Potieria is 20-5 with noine TKO/KOs and six subs. Both fighters average over five SLpM, and both will be valuable Fantasy options. I think this could be very competitive and see the later rounds, and both fighters will hang up solid striking stats.   

This fight has the same odds as the last one. Pereira will be the (-500) favorite and Potieria will be the live (+375) dog. If Potieria can extend the fight to the third round, he can steal this fight. My days of writing him off in flowing medieval script are over. Pereira faded against Santiago Ponzinibio and nearly lost a split decision. This fight could look similar. I think Pereira is the bigger finishing threat, especially early, but I also see value in a decision. These guys are both long strikers which could make for more controlled exchanges and less risky ones. Michel Pereira via decision. Put it on wax.  

Props 

Pereira: TKO/KO (-150) Sub (+350) Dec (+400)   

Potieria: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+3000) Dec (+1400) 

Winner: Michel Pereira | Method: Decision

Ciao Borralho (-550) vs. Paul Craig (+400)

Borralho: DK: $9.5k | Craig: DK:$6.7k

This right here is a grappler vs. grappler matchup, which means a tepid kickboxing match is in play. If this fight stays on the mat, it will be a grappling firefight, but if it stays standing, it will look like an NBA fight. Jeff Van Gundy will be latched onto Paul Craig’s leg while he’s squaring up. Fans might even have to get involved to keep it interesting on some Malice in the Palace type-ish. But on the mat, this will be a clash of styles. Paul Craig wrote the submission bible and sells it door-to-door. And Ciao Borralho started a civilian contractor business, transporting dangerous felons by restraining them in his back mount. They call Borralho’s back mount Con Air. His body triangle is The Rock, Alcatraz, and you need Sean Connery to break you out. This will be submission vs. position on the mat and should be a dope little scrap if Paul Craig has anything to say about it.   

Ciao Borralho looks like Lightly Soiled Lyoto Machida. Yard sale Lyoto. He has a bladed Karate style from the southpaw stance and a traditional kickboxing stance from the orthodox. Overall, his striking has a three-star Yelp rating. Frequently used reviewer descriptions include: Slow - Hands are mid-AF - Janky Philly Shell - Heavy left leg – Johnny Cage Shadow Kick - Not as good as I thought. Borralho’s special move is the fade-away flying knee. He entices you to over-pursue by retreating backward before exploding into a flying knee once you are fully committed. If Borralho ever has to rely strictly on his striking against a better striker, he will get exposed. As is the case with many grapplers, Borralho’s striking owes its effectiveness to his wrestling/grappling.   

Where was I? They use Borralho’s body triangle to restrain Hannibal Lecter. They wheel him out on a dolly with Ciao Borralho on his back. Borralho has your back like a true homie. If he gets your back, you might as well just concede the round because you aren’t escaping. The biggest knock against his ground game is his lack of submissions. He is 15-1 for his career with four TKO/KOs and four subs, including 5-0 in the UFC with only one submission. His path to victory against Paul Craig will be in salting away the clock with control time. That’s a tough path against the human fly trap, a grand wizard from his back like Paul Craig. If it stays standing, it’s anybody’s fight.   

Traffic is starting to back up on Paul Craig’s Sherdog profile – lots of brake lights. But never forget, he cracked Jamahal Hill’s ass before it was cool. He also found a dub at the bottom of the Magomed Anakalaev Sea when he submitted Ankalaev with one second left on the clock, the submission version of Max vs. Gaethje. He also had gold rings flying out of Andre Muniz’s ass during his middleweight debut. And don’t forget Paul Craig only wins by finish; he’s 17 for 17 with thirteen career subs. On the mat, he sets traps like Kevin McCallister. “Kevin!” Watch his overhook from his guard; he uses it to set up shoulder cranks, armbars, triangles, and sweeps. This guy has made to order subs from his guard – doesn't break your arm until you order it. He gives you a little card with hole punches – every ten subs, get one free.   

But his stand-up is a different story. Craig has porpoise hands. His stand-up is like he’s playing soccer, all kicks. He can stand at range and unload heavy round kicks and survive until he can draw you forward and level change. But he can’t hang with the elite strikers in the division. Craig’s path to victory is narrow – a tight rope strung along the Oregon Trail. He has to secure a sub from his back or use his guard to sweep and end up on top. If it stays standing for long stretches, I would have to give Borralho a slight edge.  

The striking stats are... weaker than granny ankles. Both fighters hover around two and a half SLpM. But Borralho averages two takedowns per fifteen minutes to Craigs one and a half. Both fighters also have terrible takedown defense. Borralho averages fifty-seven percent, and Craig averages thirty-seven. And that is why Borralho is the.... I’ve never seen this... The third straight fight with the same odds. Borralho is the (-500) favorite, and Craig is the (+375) live dog. When it comes to betting underdogs, Paul Craig travels along the Charles Oliveira spectrum. This guy can submit ANYbody in the division. His guard is nasty, and more importantly, active. The only play for Paul Craig is a finish. The tricky part is deciding between a ground-and-pound TKO or submission. The play for Borralho is a decision, controlling position and tepid stand-up exchanges for fifteen minutes. Ciao Borralho via decision. Put that ish on wax.

Props 

Borralho: TKO/KO (+225) Sub (+225) Dec (+175)   

Paul Craig: TKO/KO (+1800) Sub (+900) Dec (+1100) 

Winner: Ciao Borralho | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Jamie “Bull” Mullarkey ($7.8k): If you’ve been rockin’ with the Weekly KO for a while, you already know Jamie Mullarkey is that doodie you have to go full Ice Spice to shake off – gotta call the Mario Bros to plunge. I’ve also warned you about dudes with blonde eyebrows; they’ve been through a lot in life and it’s best not to fook with them. Mullarkey will have his work cut out against a debuting 16-bit Conor McGregor, Mauricio Ruffy. This guy beat an “ev” on the Contender Series – finished him in the third round. I ain’t kidding, Ruffy looks kinda like a Brazilian McGregor, aka McGregorzinho. But Jamie Mullarkey does his best work as a dog. He has sneaky-good boxing and timely takedowns when he’s behind on the striking. Jamie averages four and a half SLpM and nearly two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. If this turns into a firefight on the feet (which is likely), Mullarkey can hover in the sixty to seventy significant strikes range even in a loss. Those will be valuable numbers because I don’t see many finishes in the $7k range this week. If Mullarkey can get to the final bell, he can put up some respectable numbers.   

Joaquim Silva ($7.5k): This is the guy who fooked around and nearly KO’d Arman Tsarukyan on short notice. He had Arman hurt on the feet, and it was the only time we’d ever seen a kink in his armor. Of course, Silva went on to get flattened in the third round. But if I wobbled Arman Tsarukyan, it would be the first accomplishment listed on my LinkedIn profile. Silva is all athleticism – power and speed. There’s nothing fancy or intricate about any part of his game but his physical attributes are hard to overcome. Silva has shared the cage with high-level competition and even has dubs over Clay Guida and Jared Gordon. Silva will be up against Drakkar Klose- a real heathen. Klose is riding a three-fight dub streak and six of his last seven, but I’ve noticed his physical attributes have waned after eleven fights in the UFC since 2017. Klose is a real dawg and was the guy on the wrong end of the infamous Beneil Dariush KO that left Joe Rogan and Daniel Cormier in shambles. This fight will be an FX Nip/Tuck affair, but if Silva can stay on his feet and force a stand-up scrap, I like his chances not only to win but to score a TKO/KO finish.  

Jack Shore ($7.7k): This guy is 17-1 for his career, including 6-1 in the UFC. Shore is a grappler first but also has crispy striking. Shore is a wrestler/grappler who doesn’t have to force takedowns because he has the slick striking to set them up. His only loss came to the heathen Ricky Simon. Shore averages just under four SLpM and nearly three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. He is a multi-prong Fantasy scorer who mixes significant strikes, takedowns, and control time. But he’s fighting a guy with nearly identical stats in Joanderson Brito. Much like Joaquim Silva, Brito is an athletic freak with explosive everything. The key for Jack will be getting Brito to the mat before Brito gets him to the mat. But if Shore does end up on his back, I think his guard is better than Brito’s - he can force the action back to their feet and not get controlled for long stretches.  

  $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Ihor Potieria ($6.6k): The clearance rack has a couple of serious finishers this week, including Anthony Smith and Paul Craig, making this a tricky pick. But I like the chances of Ihor Potieria finding himself in a firefight that could lead to solid striking stats. Anthony Smith and Paul Craig are all-or-nothing options, but Potieria has a better chance of putting up valuable Fantasy points even if he goes down in defeat. Dare I say it? I like Potieria’s chances of pulling off the upset more than I do Craig and Smith. This guy has sneaky slick striking and hand speed and a solid gas tank. If he can get Michel Pereira to the halfway point, I think he can outwork Pereira to the finish and might have a chance to steal the fight.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Elves Brenner (+200): Elves Brenner is Diego Lopes before Diego Lopes. He’s separated at birth Eddie Bravo, aka 11th Planet Eddie Bravo, aka Treehouse of Horror Eddie Bravo. However, despite looking like Eddie Bravo, Brenner is more of a striker than a grappler. Brenner pulled off one of the biggest upsets of 2023 when he TKO’d Guram Kutateladze, a highly touted kickboxer who beat Mateusz Gamrot in his debut. Fook a dog, this guy has that coyote in him – he can survive in any environment. He will be up against Myktybek Orolbai who is a one hunnid percent wrestler who has torn down hundreds of shitty walls in his previous life as a member of Genghis Khan’s horde. Brenner will likely spend significant time on his back, but he will be tough to finish. And if he can survive into the late rounds, he will own the stand-up. Orolbai will be making only his second appearance inside the Octagon and isn’t used to seeing third rounds. Brenner will be a live-ass dog in this one.   

Joaquim Silva (+160): This guy can get completely dominated and pull off a walk-off at the final buzzer. He’s the better athlete in this matchup and his hand speed and power will cause Drakkar Klose all kinds of problems on the feet. The key for Silva will be staying upright. Without his wrestling, Klose is very average on the feet these days. He has two finishes in his last three bouts, but I saw a noticeable decline in his fight against Rafa Garcia. That was a close fight, and Silva is far more dangerous than Rafa Garcia. Silva will have to rely on some wild shit to pull this off – a flying knee or some spinning shit. But wild shit is his special weapon and the ultimate game-changer.  

Jose Aldo (+125): The King of Rio fighting in Rio. Enough said. 

Pick ‘Em 

Jack Shore (+135) vs. Joanderson Brito (-165) 

Winner: Joanderson Brito 

Method: Decision 

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-400) 

Winner: Iasmin Lucindo 

Method: Decision 

Elves Brenner (+200) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-250) 

Winner: Myktybek Orolbai 

Method: Decision 

Jean Silva (-125) vs. William Gomis (+105) 

Winner: Jean Silva 

Method: Decision 

Mauricio Ruffy (-195) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+160) 

Winner: Mauricio Ruffy 

Method: Decision 

Joaquim Silva (+155) vs. Drakkar Klose (-185) 

Winner: Drakkar Klose 

Method: Decision 

Dione Barbosa (-210) vs. Ernesta Karechaite (+165) 

Winner: Dione Barbosa 

Method: Armbar Rd.2 

Ismael Bonfim (-500) vs. Vinc Pichel (+375) 

Winner: Ismael Bonfim 

Method: Decision 

Alessandro Costa (-140) vs. Kevin Borjas (+115) 

Winner: Kevin Borjas 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1