Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Alex Pereira (-140) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+115)

Pereira: DK: $8.5k | Prochazka: DK:$7.7k

Yo! Hit that Rick James: “Cocaine’s a helluva drug!” You can’t talk about UFC 303 without addressing the white elephant in the room, and I ain’t talking about regifting Christmas presents. I’m talking about the walking, breathing Weeknd track. I’m talking about the snowman but not Frosty or Young Jeezy. I’m talking cowboys, but not the ones with stars on their helmets or roping steers and riding bucking broncos. I’m talking Cocaine Cowboys. I’m talking back in the real world where birds fly from Miami by way of Cuba to whoever wants to get that high. I’m talking MMA’s El Chapo. You snort keys, and Conor McGregor snorts grand pianos. This Saturday was supposed to be the return of the Mack, but then he stubbed his toe because he got high, because he got high, because he got high. 

What’s ironic is Michael Chandler might be in more need of an intervention and enrollment in a twelve-step program to kick his Conor McGregor addiction. Two years of courting just to get curved. 

“Excuse me, buddy. You’re parked in a Friend Zone.” 

“Hey! Listen here, pal. I ain’t your buddy.” 

TLC told you not to go chasing Conor McGregors, Mikey. But while Chandler props up a stool in the corner of a penthouse suite in Las Vegas and watches Conor on a California king-sized mattress with Egyptian silk sheets go to town on a Tony Montana-sized mound of booger sugar, the MMA world continues to turn.  

About two weeks ago, The “Poatan” signal illuminated the night sky, twice the size of a full moon, and once again, Captain Save-A-Dana came to the rescue. Alex Pereira isn’t a company man; he’s the company, man. His left hand is God’s gavel, and he’s the UFC’s Judge Dredd: Judge, jury, and executioner. “Forgiveness is between them and God. It’s my job to arrange the meeting.” Hey, God – your 12 o’clock appointment just got bumped up to 10. The forgiveness line outside the pearly gates is starting to get backed up, winding its way past Texas stadium with Jamahal Hill pulling up the rear. Alex Pereira is a Man on Fire with a heart of ash inside the Octagon. He has to drink antifreeze because he’s cold fookin’ blooded. A man can be an artist in anything. It just depends on how good he is at that thing. Alex Pereira’s art is knockouts. And at UFC 303, he’s about to paint his masterpiece.   

Pereira won the first meeting between him and Jiri in the opening seconds of the fight by destroying Jiri’s legs with the first couple of calf kicks he threw. There’s not a soul on earth—including the Sentinelese people— who doesn’t know about Pereira’s left hand. The President of the United States carries the codes to Pereira’s left hand in a little black briefcase handcuffed to his wrist. The Easter Island statues are giants Pereira knocked out in a previous life. His left hand can put New York to sleep. After the left hand Pereira landed on Jamahal Hill immediately after doing Herb Dean like Van Damme did the ref after Chong Li blinded him, God finally dropped his first mixtape: Only Pereira Can Judge Me. But his calf kicks might be his best weapon.   

Pereira’s calf kicks are like the offensive line that opens the holes for the star running back. In the first fight, Pereira had Jiri walking on hot coals right from the jump. Jiri looked like he lost his chanclas at the community pool on a hot summer day. Switching southpaw only led to two fooked up legs. Early on, Jiri’s trademark feral movement was compromised, and he had difficulty closing the distance. Seven months after the first meeting, shit won’t change. The game plan remains intact. Pereira will engineer an ass whoopin’ from the ground up. Checking kicks is an instinct, a habit, a lifestyle that can’t be learned within seven months after going over a decade without checking them. Once Pereira has Jiri walking on McGregor legs, the rest is academic – it's only a matter of time until that left hand shows up on Jiri’s chin’s doorstep unannounced.   

But don’t get it fooked up like the Mavs in the Finals; I’m not counting out the Encino Man, aka the Inebriated Master. This guy is elemental: Earth, wind, and Jiri. They found Jiri frozen in a glacier at the peak of a mountain in Iceland with a sabretooth tiger in a headlock. They checked the contents of Jiri’s stomach and discovered raw velociraptor meat. Jiri is an ancient combat soul who used to ride Mastodons into battle. They make Sex Panther with bits of real panthers that Jiri kills with his bare hands. Bruce Lee once spit this bar: “Be water, my friend.” On the feet, Jiri flows like water. Fook that – flows like Niagra Falls. And his opponents are barrels going over the edge. Jiri’s style is a Perfect Storm, the Storm of the Century. This guy inundates you on the feet - swamps you with one long continuous attack that begins as soon as the round does. One strike leads to the next, and it almost looks like an ancient ancestorial dance that he’s reciting when he’s in the zone.   

Jiri’s best weapon is movement. He morphs between stances and can attack while moving in any direction. But his major malfunction is that even though he moves continuously, he’s very hittable. He tends to flow right into punches. In the first fight, Jiri tried to wrestle after eating a couple of leg kicks. I don't know if that was the game plan or an "Oh Shit!" reaction to getting his leg amputated below the knee after taking the first kick. In his most recent bout, Jiri took down Aleksandar Rakic briefly. But I don’t think the doobie is worth the roll. The fruit of that labor will only bear an emaciated Starvin Marvin pinner that gets Jiri laughed out of the session. Pereira is tough to take down and fairly difficult to hold down. Jan Blachowicz had success, but Pereira’s wrestling/grappling is steadily improving. I think Jiri needs to trust his striking, create chaos, and let the chips fall where they may. Like Tupac, Pereira’s chin Ain’t Hard 2 Find.   

The numbers: Jiri is 30-4 with twenty-six TKO/KOs and three subs. This guy has only won by decision once in his career. Jiri is coming in off a two-round war against Rakic, another fight Jiri had trouble with leg kicks. But Jiri kept attacking and his constant offense wore down Rakic quickly. Pereira is 10-2 with eight TKO/KOs. You know what that means... Pereira by submission! Check it: Pereira was 3-1 when he made his UFC debut. MF is a two-division Champion meow. Jiri is the slightly higher-output striker averaging over five and a half SLpM to Pereira’s just under five and a half. But none of that will matter. Just like the first fight, someone will be going to sleep. The play for both fighters is a TKO/KO finish. Pereira is the (-170) favorite, and Jiri is the (+140) live-ass dog. Keep in mind that the first fight was Jiri’s first fight back from shoulder surgery. He has now had another fight under his belt and is likely feeling more confident in his shoulder. Jiri is an automatic underdog bet – there isn’t a fight in this division he can’t win.   

Last week, Bobby Knuckles ended the main event losing streak with an uncharacteristic TKO victory after not finishing a fight in seven years. If he can get the belt back, he will be the middleweight GOAT. Speaking of GOAT, Pereira could soon be in that conversation quicker than any fighter in history. This guy is on a roll only rivaled by the Hawk Tua girl. I think this fight is a toss-up. I picked Pereira to win the first time, and the deciding factor was leg kicks. I think that will be the case again. Alex Pereira via TKO, round three. Put that ish on wax. 

Props 

Pereira: TKO/KO (+120) Sub (+1800) Dec (+650)  

Prochazka: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+1000) Dec (+900) 

Winner: Alex Pereira | Method: TKO Rd.3

Brian Ortega (+130) vs. Diego Lopes (-155)

Ortega: DK: $7.8k | Lopes: DK: $8.4k

Ba, ba, ba, BANGER! We went from Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree in the co-main event to Hill vs. Carlos Ulberg to Ulberg vs. Anthony Smith to Smith vs. Roman Dolidze to Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes. That’s an Oregon Trail path to a completely new co-main event. The good news is this fight will be like Dumbledore vs. Voldemort when it comes to grappling wizards. These two get down like they rubbed their asses in the ground when it comes to rolling Jiu-Jitsu. If this fight hits the mat, it could be Gaethje vs. Max, the grappling version. But that’s a big if because, quite often, when you have two elite grapplers, the fight turns into a kickboxing match. Fortunately, if that’s the case, these guys aren’t chumps on their feet and will engage in a stop, drop, and roll firefight.   

Diego Lopes is the grown-up version of the goth kid from South Park who flicks his hair, “Life is pain. Life is only pain.” After freaking out his parents and two exorcisms later, Lopes is one fight away from catapulting into a possible title eliminator. With a dub, Lopes could be taking his band on the road and selling out stadiums, “Oh, no, no, no. I’m not gonna be in your talent show!” My man will complete the modern-day rags to riches story, but in Lopes’s case, he will go from trench coats to mink coats – from black nail polish to pinkie rings. Lopes will finally be able to realize his life’s dream of opening his own Hot Topic store in an abandoned mall. In his last bout, “Sweat The” Sodiq Yusuff found out what happens when you call Diego Lopes emo. Yusuff got viciously TKO’d in under two minutes. Silly Sodiq – everybody knows emos are posers. Goth’s darkness is nihilistic, while Emos’s is cynical.   

Diego Lopes has been Mollywhopping people on the feet so much lately that Amy and Susie are starting to get jealous. My man Diego has been out here looking like a zesty Theo Von, like a professional Riff Raff with a Hilly Billy heartthrob mullet, TKO’ing and KO’ing opponents up a storm. But I’m here to warn you for future reference: Diego isn’t a striker. IDGAF – I know he’s been sleeping people, and he might even KO Ortega, but his striking will eventually be exposed at the highest level. He’s all aggression and volume and kind of reminds me of Alexandre Pantoja on the feet. Lopes is far from a technical striker, but he has no reservations on his feet. His heart pumps no fear, and he won’t hesitate to engage in 50/50 exchanges with anybody in the division. But what makes Lopes special is his grappling.    

Lopes averages five sub-attempts per fifteen minutes. He throws up armbars and triangles like jabs. Check it: Diego’s Grandpappy is a Jiu-jitsu coral belt. And that ain’t no Bikini Bottom Jiu-Jitsu. You receive a coral belt after you’ve held a black belt for thirty fookin’ years. You best recognize Grandpappy Lopes like he looks familiar. Diego inherited a black belt like some kids inherit blue eyes or alopecia. This guy came out of the womb, and the Doc wrapped a black belt around him. In his short-notice debut against Movsar Evloev, Diego had Evloev tied up in Boy Scout knots, barely escaping sub attempt after sub attempt. Deigo lost that fight but made a name for himself as a dangerous Jitz God disciple. Lopes is 24-6 with twenty-two finishes, including ten TKO/KOs and twelve subs. I think his value is in a TKO/KO finish or a possible club-and-sub. 

Brian Ortega is a conundrum on the feet. He is dangerous offensively, but he is defensively illiterate – on some Floyd Mayweather type-ish. Ortega can’t even spell defence. His defense is offensive. I’m like literally shaking thinking about him standing there eating punches to the face like Lizzo standing at the end of a donut conveyor belt. He eats punches like Joey Chestnut eats weenies. 

“Hey, buddy! They’re called Franks!” 

“Hey, pawtna! I ain’t your buddy!” 

Ortega’s chin is so compromised that the draft when you walk into a convenience store wobbles him. In the first round against Yair, death was twiddling its fingers like Mr. Burns in anticipation of a new tenant. Ortega Danced With The Devil like Immortal Technique. He wore a lacy little number and batted his eyelashes at disaster. But then he rose like a River Phoenix never did. Ortega has a habit of getting his ass kicked until he sees the light at the end of the tunnel, and the Rocky theme song cuts through the disembodied choir singing in the background. Ortega’s best weapon is he has that dog in him like a Black Mirror Metalhead dog found a Resident Evil zombie dog in heat.   

On the feet, Ortega will be more offensively technical. Ortega has crispy boxing and a sneaky spinning back elbow counter. He draws the opponent forward, then breaks into a spinning elbow when they are fully committed to an attack. He ruined the Korean Zombie’s career with a spinning back elbow counter. I have no idea who will get the better of the stand-up. I haven’t seen Diego’s at long stretches, and Ortega is too vulnerable. After every exchange, Ortega freezes in the pocket instead of rolling off punches or stepping off at angles. On the mat, Ortega’s specialty is the guillotine. His nickname is T-City (Triangle City), but he’s far handier with guillotines. Escaping his guillotine is like escaping Alcatraz, and Volkanovski is the only one to ever accomplish the feat. Ortega is 16-3 for his career with three TKO/KOs and eight subs. Ortega will be the higher-output striker averaging four SLpM to Lopes’ just over three. 

Diego Lopes is the (-150) favorite, and Ortega is the (+125) live-ass dog. I still feel like I haven’t seen enough of Lopes to know how good he really is. His last three fights all ended in a minute and a half. Ortega’s Octagon experience dwarfs Lopes’s. But Lopes has all the momentum and a lot less wear and tear on his chin. I think the play for both fighters is a TKO/KO. But a decision for each fighter is also in play. Neither fighter has ever been submitted, and I think their ground games could cancel each other out. Damn. Brian Ortega is the wrong guy to bet against, but I have to roll with the hot hand. Diego Lopes via decision. Put it on wax. 

Props 

Lopes: TKO/KO (+180) Sub (+550) Dec (+300)  

Ortega: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+550) Dec (+300) 

Winner: Diego Lopes | Method: Decision

Anthony Smith (+120) vs. Roman Dolidze (-150)

Smith: DK: $7.8k | Dolidze: DK:$8.4k

With an Anthony Smith win, I’m hoping we get an Anthony Smith vs. Anthony Smith (Bogdan Guskov) Fight Night main event. You already know about Anthony Smith - he fought like yesterday. This guy goes straight Mel Gibson, “Give me back my son!” in every fight. He goes straight Mel in the Patriot after the Lobsterbacks killed his family. Even though he defeated Vitor Petrino in his most recent bout, he still holds a grudge against Petrino for killing Smith’s brother at the Battle of Waterloo. Yo! Hit that Cypress Hill classic, Insane in the Membrane. Anthony Smith is a little off-kilter, like Ikea table legs. If you could see inside Smith’s mind, you couldn’t. It’s Pitch Black in that bish, like that Vin Diesel movie. Anthony Smith is darkness eternal. But that’s okay because you have to be a little off your rocker to make a living fist-fighting human beings. But at the end of the day, there are few fighters I respect more than Anthony Smith. This guy is closing in on sixty MMA bouts and will take any fight on a minute’s notice.   

Never forget the time Anthony Smith caught a guy breaking into his house, and he beat the man half to death in his kitchen. That bout doesn’t even show up on his Tapology record. What’s crazy about Smith is that he’s still winning bouts. Granted, in his last bout, it looked like Vitor Petrino let his personal life affect his professional life. Petrino looked like he wanted to get choked out – like he had ten stamps and was collecting his free choke. It won’t be that easy this time, though. The Dub Fairy won’t be paying Smith a visit this time around. Meanwhile, Tony Ferguson is somewhere wondering why the Dub Fairy can’t throw him a fookin’ bone. All you need to know about Smith is that he still has power on the feet and chokes on the mat. And he has that Tell-Tale Heart beating beneath the floorboard. He makes every fight a dog fight, and he usually wins when you least expect him to.   

Roman Dolidze looks like he wears a bear costume at bachelorette parties. This fookin’ guy sweats testosterone. Roman looks like one – a cot damn gladiator. The billionaires have a spot for Dolidze reserved in the bunker so he can repopulate the earth after they orchestrate nuclear fallout. This guy just walks through a fertility clinic lobby and turns all those negatives into positives. N’ah, mean? Roman Dolidze looks like the guy you picture her with when she’s not with you. Always be wary of guys rocking full Home Depot carpet samples on their chest like Roman Dolidze. He static shocks you from the top position. Speaking of the top position... You remember that Jack Hermansson fight? Dolidze had one of the most brutal TKOs in history when he went straight Deliverance, “Squeal little piggy! Weeeeee! Weeeeee!” Dolidze had a back-mounted calf slicer locked in while dropping hammers on Hermansson’s face. Although Dolidze’s wrestling is overall just average, he is a leglock specialist on the mat.   

But I still don’t know what Dolidze is - a striker, a grappler, or both? He’s a well-rounded fighter with a Madden rating of seventy in every category. His problem on the feet is that his hand speed is rush hour traffic on the 405. He has power to burn, but he lacks a professional cadence. He just walks around and punches. There’s no bounce, no bobbing/weaving, and no head movement. It’s just swing when the opponent gets close. This fight will likely play out largely on the feet, and he will be at a big technical disadvantage. Dolidze will have to have an answer for Smith’s leg kicks. Smith’s hands aren’t dynamic, but he sets them up with nasty leg work. The key for Dolidze is letting his hands go. Smith struggles to defend against volume - combinations. Roman only averages just over two and a half SLpM. That won’t get it done against most high-level fighters. Smith only averages just over three SLpM, but he has a more diverse attack, implementing a kicking game.   

Roman Dolidze is the (-140) favorite, and Anthony Smith is the live-ass (+120) dog. I think Smith is the more dangerous fighter. He’s a dual sub/TKO/KO threat. Dolidze has slick leg submissions, but that’s a niche specialty that can’t be implemented in every fight. Neither fighter has or ever will sniff one hundred significant strikes in a fight, so without a finish one way or the other, both guys could be Fantasy flops. Dolidze’s career striking high is seventy-one, and Smith’s is noinety-one. I didn’t take any dogs last week (only Volkov won), and I can’t let that happen again. Give me Anthony Fookin’ Smith! But I think this could settle into a tepid kickboxing match, and I think the play is a decision. Anthony Smith via decision. Put that ish on wax.   

 Props 

Smith: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+700) Dec (+350)  

Dolidze: TKO/KO (+215) Sub (+1100) Dec (+250) 

Winner: Anthony Smith | Method: Decision

Mayra Bueno Silva (-115) vs. Macy Chiasson (-105)

MBS: DK: $8.8k | Chiasson: DK: $7.4k

No, wait! Come back! Too late. The collective sound of Bic lighters flicking and bongs gurgling will be deafening when this one starts:  

This smoke break is brought to you by Mr. Nice Guys: When life is hard, I pick up that card with the smiley face.  

Okay, okay, this should actually be a decent little scrap. This will be a “The Outsiders” street scrap with pocket knives, brass knuckles, and wooden bats wrapped with barbed wire. This is some Warriors shit – The Warriors vs. The Furies scrapping in Central Park, “I’ll shove that bat up your ass and turn you into a popsicle.” No Diddy. This is shanks made out of slivers of soap in the prison yard, “Sst, sst, sst!” This fight will be All Quiet on the Western Front trench warfare. Both these girls save ammunition and prefer to stick you with the bayonet so they can watch their image burn into your retinas – the last thing you see. They’ll take pleasure in gutting you, boy. At range, both ladies struggle on the feet, but in the clinch, both ladies are marauders.  They are sculptors in the clinch, Michaelangelos using elbows to chip away until you're carved into a dub and put on display at some museum halfway across the globe. 

Mayra Bueno Silva, aka Mayra Malo Silva is a female Chito Vera. She’s an ass-kicker, not a fighter. She recently had a title shot against Raquel Pennington and shit the bed like Amber Heard. Her major malfunction is that she fades like Dr. Dre’s SL 4000. She gets out to fast starts and has to be towed across the finish line. But she’s a savage on the feet, using standing hammerfists behind traditional punches to dismantle guards. There’s something extra primal about standing hammerfists - they portend a different level of malice. It’s like a vicious Three Stooges bonk on the head, and there’s something emasculating about getting hit with it. It’s like being b**ch slapped. But her specialty is the clinch, using knees and elbows and landing trip takedowns. You need a restraining order to get her off you in the clinch. Silva is 10-3 with one TKO/KO and seven subs.   

Macy Chiasson was on the verge of beating “Me, Myself, &” Irene Aldana and catapulting into title contention just two years ago. But then Aldana landed an up-kick to Chiasson’s liver, and Chiasson promptly painted the town brown – sprayed her draws like the club scene in Blade when the sprinklers come on. But she rebounded like Rodman with a first-round submission dub earlier this year. This lady is the female Tim Means. She’s on that grimy NOLA Birdman shit. Brr! What happened to that girl? Chiasson stays fly in any weather but remains below the radar. She’s as underrated a fighter as there is at bantamweight. She’s not a great striker, but she sticks like Velcro in the clinch and the top position. Her grappling is highly underrated. She was running away with the Aldana fight before getting stopped with just two minutes left. Chiasson’s specialty is taking a licking early, then turning the tables like Jazzy Jeff late. Chiasson will be a big finishing threat late when Silva tends to slow down.   

Chiasson is 9-3 with two TKO/KOs and three subs. Both ladies average about three and a half SLpM, but Chiasson averages nearly two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Silva has a dangerous guard, but once she starts to gas, she can be controlled for long stretches. Both women are in the sixty percent range for takedown defense, and this one could come down to who ends up on top last. The plays for both are a decision, and neither fighter will light up the Fantasy scoreboard without a finish. Bueno Silva is the slight (-120) favorite, and Chiasson will return even money. Mayra Bueno Silva via decision. On wax. 

Props 

Bueno Silva: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+300) Dec (+275)   

Chiasson: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+800) Dec (+165) 

Winner: Marya Bueno Silva | Method: Decision

Ian Garry (-155) vs. Michael Venom Page (+130)

Garry: DK: $8.2k | MVP: DK:$8k

Many men. Many, many, many men. Wish death upon Ian Garry. But nobody has beaten him yet. Yet... In steps MVP – one of the most unique strikers in the game. On Saturday night, these guys will be like one hunnid dollar bills - held to the light and swiped with a counterfeit pen, fraud checked. I smell a rat. One of these guys is faking the funk. And there’s a possibility that both are. I’m not sold on Ian Garry as a legit title threat, and I still don’t know how good MVP really is. This is MVP’s second real test, the first being Kevin Holland. And that fight could have used a little Hawk Tua! That fight didn’t live up to the hype, and based on their styles, this fight could be a repeat. Or it could be nuckin’ futs if these guys let it hang like Jobu. 

MVP doesn’t really have one-punch KO power. Rather, he dents you like soup cans. By the end of the fight, you come down with botulism and die a slow, agonizing death. Homie Breaks Stuff like L-I-M-P Bizkit. Hit that shit! But MVP didn’t do it all for the Nookie. He did it for the love of fracturing skulls. He made the male Cyborg’s (a former coach of mine) skull look like it was discovered at an excavation site in the marshes of Scottland. Like one of those skulls used to recreate a Neanderthal face. MVP’s opponents look like Civil War survivors when he’s done with them. MFs don’t have a mouth - their tongue just hangs on their neck like a tie. Double Windsor. In his last fight in Bellator, MVP kicked a poor bastid in the knee, and it looked like the dude stepped on an IED.   

MVP isn’t particularly fast, but he’s long. His arms unravel like garden hoses – like Rapunzel’s hair. They could use MVP’s arms for prison breaks to scale the walls. His arms are longer than the client list. His bladed Karate stance accentuates his long limbs and allows him to cover distances the average fighter isn’t used to. His stance is so bladed you can barely see him. His presence is like an optical illusion. Until you eat a hook kick to the face. Like Magneto and magnetic fields, MVP’s specialty is manipulating range. He attacks from varying depths, peripherals, and angles. Imagine this: MVP vs. Wonderboy. That matchup would break your brain. Like seeing a fourth dimension, you would be driven crazy trying to comprehend it. Anywho, lest I digress. MVP is 22-2 with thirteen TKO/KOs and three subs and landed just forty-one significant strikes in his debut.   

My trepidation when it comes to Ian Garry is that I haven’t really seen him in a fight yet. Even the Geoff Neal fight wasn’t a classic Geoff Neal dog fight. I suspect Ian Garry has that Paris Hilton dog in him. The type rich ladies carry around in Gucci bags. It’s like his owner’s Range Rover hasn’t broken down in the wrong part of town yet. He hasn’t come across a real stray fighting for scraps behind a Buca di Beppo. So far, I’ve only seen Ian Garry play it safe- do just enough to win or have the judges bail him out. I know, you play to win the game. But this guy won’t even play the board game Risk. He refuses to exchange in the pocket and won’t extend combinations past two punches. His style seems like its purpose is to fight as little as possible. Garry’s striking is almost too technical. He’s like a pitcher with great command of a late 80s/early 90s fastball and stays ahead in the count. But he won’t drop one off the end of a table or throw a filthy splitter.   

I don’t know what it is, maybe the lower back tack on his ankle, but Garry seems to be missing something. Something that real title challengers have. He reminds me of the kid whose mom never let him go on sleepovers. The kid whose mom gave him a doctor’s note for P.E. He will be the more technical/traditional striker against MVP but not the more dangerous striker. That will be MVP with all the flashy spinning/flying shit. Garry is 14-0 with seven TKO/KOs and one sub and averages just below six and a half SLpM. But Garry will be fighting someone longer than him; he will be at a five-inch reach disadvantage, and it will be difficult striking for volume against a guy who uses every inch of that reach.   

Garry is the (-140) favorite, and MVP is the (+115) live-ass dog. This main card is filled with live-ass dogs. The key for Garry will be attacking MVP’s legs and slowing down MVP’s ability to get in and out of range quickly. For MVP, it will be volume. He doesn’t have to commit to combinations as much as he needs to allow for less dead air between engagements. This is another fight that could turn into a tepid, technical kickboxing match that favors a decision both ways. The pick ‘em could be ugly this week. I like the dog in this one, too. There’s value in all these dogs. Fantasy scoring will be rough this week. The main card is chock full of low-output strikers. You’re gonna be standing on the side of the road holding a piece of cardboard reading: “Hawk Tua for Fantasy Points!” MVP via decision. Wax on, wax off. 

Props 

Garry: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1000) Dec (+150)   

MVP: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+3000) Dec (+250) 

Winner: Michael Venom Page | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Brian Ortega ($7.8k): Not only can Ortega win this fight, but he can put up solid striking stats even in a loss. This fight should be nip/tuck until the final bell. Both fighters are Jiu-Jitsu grand wizards, meaning the majority will likely play out on the feet. The ground games will likely cancel each other out, and we will be left with a stand-up firefight. We haven’t seen Diego Lopes on the feet for extended stretches. Does he have the fundamental skills on the feet to engage in a traditional kickboxing match for an entire fight? Both fighters are all offense and no defense, and that should lead to a high-output back-and-forth banger.    

Jiri Prochazka ($7.7k): Fantasy-wise, the main event is a winner-take-all affair like the first bout. One of these guys is going to sleep and will turn into a Fantasy bust. But to the winner goes the Fantasy points. The over for two and a half rounds is (+120) and the under is (-155). The first fight ended at the noine minute mark, just over a round and a half. Jiri had big moments in the first fight. Pereira consistently backed himself against the cage and allowed Jiri to unload combinations. Just before Pereira landed his left hook, Jiri looked like he was starting to take over with pressure and volume. Pereira’s major malfunction is that he relies too much on his chin defensively. He has a rigid upright stance and carries his chin on a platter like a waiter at Chili’s delivering a plate of sizzling fajitas to your table. He can be touched with the one-time. Jiri’s upside is a TKO/KO finish, but his downside is a repeat of the first fight. 

Vinicius Oliveira ($7.3k): This is the “Life’s a risk, carnal” pick of the week. Vinicius Oliveira is a Steve-O Wild Boy. This guy’s style is kick ass and leave the questions on the cutting room floor. Oliveira will be facing the tough Ricky Simon who is a wrestler first and a wrestler striker second. Simon averages five and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Oliveira’s takedown defense is an abysmal forty percent after being taken down three times in his debut against a late replacement. Oliveira had to mount a fourth-quarter comeback and stole the fight with a late third-round flying knee KO. Oliveira is 20-3 with eighteen finishes, including sixteen TKO/KOs and two subs. On the feet, this guy starts with the kitchen sink and throws everything except... except nothing. He’ll throw the fookin’ water heater and RV parked in the backyard at you. He doesn’t fight; he scraps. He throws nothing but McGuire and Sosa homer run bombs. If the takedown well dries up on Simon, he will be in all kinds of trouble on the feet. Oliveira’s upside is a finish, but his downside is giving up top control for most of the fifteen minutes. But make no mistake, Oliveira is the more dangerous fighter.   

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Carlos Hernandez ($6.9k): This kid is a sneaky good fighter. He is 2-2 in the UFC, but both losses came to elite grapplers Allan Nascimento and Tatsuro Taira. He will be facing another grappler, Rei Tsuruya, who will be making his debut. I don’t know much about Tsuruya, but he is 9-0 and has dynamic-level change takedowns. That doesn’t bode well for Hernandez, but this could be a classic survive and advance situation. One of the hardest things to do in MMA is wrestle for fifteen minutes. At some point, I think Tsuruya will fade and have trouble getting Hernandez to the mat if Tsuruya can’t score an early finish. If this stays standing, Hernandez can steal this fight. Hernandez averages five SLpM and is one fight removed from landing one hundred two strikes against Denys Bondar, a guy with excellent takedowns. If you find yourself perusing the clearance rack stationed in the back of the store next to the restrooms, Hernandez is a solid option with upset potential.    

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Marc-Andre Barriault (+220): The road rage scrapper Marc-Andre Barriault is back and facing the highly touted Joe Pyfer, who is fresh off a main event ass whoopin’ at the hands of Jack Hermansson. Hermy put Joe in his Pyfer and smoked him after surviving a sketchy first round and a half. As it turns out, after about a round and a half, when the clock strikes seven minutes, Pyfer’s fight shorts turn back into Daisy Dukes, and he’s assed-out. Barriault is a grinder; his style is pushing you against the cage and going old-school Randy Couture on your ass, dirty boxing in the clinch. If Barriault can survive Pyfer’s early hand speed and power, he will take over the latter minutes. If you have live betting in your state, this is the perfect fight to keep an eye on. Once/if the second round begins and Pyfer starts taking deep breaths, it will be time to go all in on Barriault.   

Brian Ortega (+130): In many ways, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes are the same fighters. Their skill sets are almost identical. They are both world-class submission Banksys with formidable striking. This is a classic toss-up in my book. Other than in his debut against Movsar Evloev, Lopes has yet to be tested inside the Octagon. And even in the Evloev fight, Lopes was never in any danger; he lost that fight because he gave up too much top control and played from his guard a little too much. This will be the first time Lopes will really be tested, and Ortega is a Michael Vick FC champion dog. Do you remember the third round against Alexander Volkanovski? That was probably the greatest round in title fight history, and Ortega came close to submitting Volk three times in that round. He then went on to win the fifth round after taking a beating. If, at some point, Lopes starts cracking Ortega’s ass like single-ply, know that he has Lopes right where he wants him.   

Jiri (+115): Pereira can get got on the feet. He leads with his chin high in the air. Jiri is slippery on the feet, using both stances and flowing smoothly between traditional strikes and flashy ones. He causes chaos, and his pressure is infinite. Every Jiri fight is one long, continuous combination of fists, elbows, and shins flying. With two fights under his belt since the shoulder injury that forced him to vacate his title, I think Jiri will look more fluid as he did when he won the belt against Glover. The key for Jiri will be defending leg kicks. Pereira and Rakic destroyed Jiri’s legs and made him more ofa stationary target. But even on one leg, Jiri will force 50/50 exchanges, and one of these guys will get waved off by the end of it. 

Pick ‘Em 

Joe Pyfer (-300) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+225) 

Winner: Joe Pyfer 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Cub Swanson (+200) vs. Andre Fili (-250) 

Winner: Cub Swanson  

Method: Decision 

Charles Jourdain (-120) vs. Jean Silva (+100) 

Winner: Charles Jourdain 

Method: Decision 

Payton Talbott (-1800) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (+900) 

Winner: Payton Talbott 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Michell Waterson (+155) vs. Gillian Robertson (-185) 

Winner: Gillian Robertson 

Method: Decision 

Andrei Arlovski (+200) vs. Martin Buday (-250) 

Winner: Martin Buday 

Method: Decision 

Rei Tsuruya (-500) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+375) 

Winner: Rei Tsuruya 

Method: Decision 

Ricky Simon (-240) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+195) 

Winner: Ricky Simon 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1