Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Leon Edwards (-210) vs. Belal Muhammad (+165)

Leon: DK: $8.8k | Belal: DK:$7.4k

Headshot. Bang! Two weeks ago, kids in Africa rocking t-shirts with those three words printed across their chests began trending on social media. Not a 2014 Dallas Cowboys Championship shirt in sight. The usual suspects, the alphabet agencies, fell under justified scrutiny. One of those suspects, Leon Edwards, was quoted as quoting Shaggy, “It wasn’t me.” Outside the Octagon, Leon Edwards doesn’t exist. He’s a figment of military lure, the greatest sniper who ever lived – too accurate to work for any world government or those with such ambitions of becoming one. A lone wolf. A rogue agent from a Black Ops site in... where? Antarctica? Somewhere within the Grand Canyon? It’s all just speculation.   

But what isn’t is Leon’s prowess behind a scope. His hands and feet are all outfitted with extended ELR (Extreme Long Range) night vision capable scopes, the crosshairs extensions of a divine touch when he pulls the trigger. Leon was credited with the most difficult confirmed kill during combat when he landed a left high kick against Kamaru Usman with less than a minute left and defeat closing in on all sides. His strikes are more accurate than conspiracy theories over the last four years. And they’re quicker than depository shots – no magic bullet needed. Leon is so fast he can jab you and download an album on LimeWire before you react - so fast he can kick you in the head, hop on a Boeing rocket ship like Little Einsteins, get stranded in space, and get rescued before you know wtf happened. You can say he has that Miss America Q&A stupid speed.   

Range and speed: Elements on the periodic table they don’t teach you about in high school chemistry. Leon Edwards is a world-class striker because his anatomy is laced with rich deposits of both. Future wars will be fought to determine which global superpower will control those deposits. Leon won’t overwhelm you with volume or pressure; he bats for average. He’s on that .394 Tony Gwynn (R.I.P., Legend) shit. His left hand is his 5.5-hole, his signature move, that of which Leon owes much of his success. But none of that means he can’t hit an occasional home run like Tony in game one of the ‘97 World Series. In their first meeting, Leon landed the Usman left high kick on Belal Muhammad in the opening round and had Belal auditioning for Boogie Nights, cruising around the Octagon like Rollergirl. Leon was too fast, too accurate, too good on the feet for Belal. It looked like Leon was on his way to a quick finish, but the fight ended after an eye poke in the second round.   

But I must caution you from drawing conclusions based on the first five minutes of the first fight. Rememberberries the fifth round of Leon’s most recent fight against Colby Covington? Leon was taken down early in the round and spent nearly its entirety on his back, not making even a half-assed attempt to get back to his feet. He had to be carried across the finish line on a gurney like an injured soccer player. They had to carry him like Sam did Frodo, “I can’t carry the belt, but I can carry you!” Like rocking chonies and chanclas before Labor Day, it wasn’t a good look. One thing is certain, Belal Muhammad won’t fade, quit, or ever take for granted that he is up on the scorecards. Leon’s major malfunction is Belal’s best weapon, cardio. Somewhere around the fourth round, Leon disappears like D.B. Cooper. 

Getting to the championship rounds will be difficult for Belal, though. Belal won’t have his wrestling to fall back on early in the fight unless he goes full Merab and spams takedowns to disrupt Leon’s striking rhythm. You can take Leon down, but it’s hard to keep him on the mat. His wrestling has become elite, and Belal will likely struggle to get him to the mat early. Check it: Leon hasn’t lost a fight since 2015. And since 2018 (eight fights) he has only finished one fight, The Head Kick Heard Round the World. There’s a good chance Leon will have to pace himself for five rounds against a guy who has cardio and wrestling like his last name ends in “ov/ev.”   

Speaking earlier of kids in Africa, they’re already rocking Belal Muhammad Welterweight World Champion t-shirts, too. They already have Belal’s Wikipedia page updated with “Former welterweight title challenger.” This one seems like a foregone conclusion. But beware of the trap fight. Fook Migos, Belal is the King of Trap. Belal Muhammad is terminal. If you get diagnosed with Belal disease, you better get your affairs in order, clear your browser history, and all that because you only have twenty-five minutes left to live. He’ll turn you into Walt White real quick. By round four, Leon might as well quit fighting and start cooking meth. Belal is ill. Illmatic. He’s from Chi-Town but keeps a NY State of Mind: He’s a hustla; he’s a, he’s a hustla. Like slangin’ nics on the corner, Belal stays on the grind until his pressure and pace break the opponent. Just a slight typo in his name can turn him into Baal Muhammad, as was the case against Sean Brady. Belal turned into a physical manifestation of that tat on Brady’s back. Belal fought possessed and broke Brady with diabolic pressure and never-ending combinations. They had to call Father Merrin to exorcise the Octagon after that fight.  

For Belal to win this fight, he has to turn it into the adult version of Merab vs. Yan. Belal is one of the few fighters who can implement a Merab-like game plan. He can lay siege to your castle with constant level changes and tie-ups along the cage and wait out your gas tank. Yo! Hit The Temptations “Staying Alive!” Ah, ha, ha, ha, Belal’s stayin’ alive, stayin’ alive! The key for Belal will be surviving on the feet in the opening ten minutes. Belal isn’t a chump on the feet; he has awkward striking, changing his shoulder levels and firing from unorthodox angles. Against “Boo-Urns” Gilbert Burns, Belal went straight Cro Cop and battered Burns’s arms with repeated left round kicks to the body. But it’s already been proven that Belal can’t stand with Leon when they are both at full strength. He has to close the distance and force Leon to fight in the clinch and against the cage. There is a path to victory for Belal. But it will be like “Death Road” in Bolivia, a narrow dirt road spiraling along the side of a mountain with no guardrails, dense fog, and constant landslides.   

Belal is 23-3 with five TKO/KOs and one sub and hasn’t lost in his last ten fights. Belal will be the much higher output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM to Leon’s just above two and a half. Leon relies on one perfectly timed shot while Belal sprays like a bottle of Windex. Belal will have a ton of value as a Clearance Rack option. He can win this fight. He fights for something much bigger than himself and has that Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom heart beating outside his fookin’ chest. If/when the fight reaches the halfway point, Leon fans will start getting nervous, like when Chris Hansen walks into a room, “Have a seat.” The play for Leon is a TKO/KO finish, and the play for Belal is a win by decision.   

It’s hard out here for a Pick ‘Em the last couple of weeks. You have to scratch and claw for every dub lately. But the main event winning streak is stuntin’ like its daddy. We’re up to four in a row after Virna Jandiroba grappled circles, squares, trapezoids, and rhombuses around Amanda Lemos. I have half a mind to take the dog, Belal Muhammad, this week. But he will be severely out-gunned early on the feet, and I don’t know if he can get Leon to the mat before it’s too late. Leon Edwards via TKO, round three. Put it on wax. 

Props

Leon: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+400) Dec (+100) 

Belal: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+1400) Dec (+350)

Winner: Leon Edwards | Method: TKO Rd.3

Tom Aspinall (-300) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+230)

Aspinall: DK: $9.4k | Blaydes: DK: $6.8k

I remember it like it was yesterday. I was smoking a spice melange doobie, and just when I was about to declare, “This spice ain’t shit,” I started tripping and had a prescient dream of Curtis Blaydes KO’ing Tom Aspinall seconds before it was about to happen. But Tom Aspinall’s knee came to the rescue and blew out before Blaydes could land the KO shot. The fight lasted all of fifteen seconds, but it was enough to see that Blaydes was getting the better of the brief exchanges as Aspinall was willing to trade naked leg kicks for Blaydes's counter right hands. Never trade leg kicks for right hands. That’s not a fair exchange. Waiting for the conclusion of that fight has been like waiting for R.R. Martin to finish Winds of Winter. But here we are. Finally. 

After VP Day (Victory over Pavlovich Day), Tom Aspinall was hailed as a wartime hero and given a silver star for valor in the face of one of the most dangerous enemy in the heavyweight division. D-Day was over eighty years ago, and Aspinall paid homage by reenacting the invasion of Normandy beaches in a one-minute war against Pavlovich last November. Fighting Pavlovich is like storming the beaches while taking on mortar fire, avoiding floating mines, and praying you aren’t hit by a fifty cal from the bunkers high up on the cliffs of the French coastline. Aspinall froggered through all that shit, surviving a near-fatal head wound in the opening seconds, and lived to have a belt wrapped around his waist. Surviving a fight against Pavlovich is like surviving every major war in modern history.   

Tom Aspinall is like Ciryl Gane with wrestling. He’s an athlete first and a fighter second. Aspinall combines ludicrous hand speed with timely takedowns like an Elite Security guard when a fan runs on the field. Tommy has that DeLorean hand speed powered by plutonium. When Tommy starts throwing hands, he ends up in 1955 with his grandmother parading numbers in a one-piece bathing suit around the Octagon. On the feet, Aspinall is all speed everything. He relies on his speed more than he does technique or defensive prowess. Aspinall relies on pulls and slips with his hands down to avoid punches, and it’s only a matter of time until that catches up with him. Pavlovich landed a big shot in the opening seconds that Aspinall was lucky to survive. But Aspinall’s biggest red flag on the feet is naked leg kicks. Voyeur leg kicks. Get your ass on the registry leg kicks. Not allowed within 100 yards of a school naked leg kicks. As was the case against Curtis Blaydes in the first meeting, Aspinall has a bad habit of throwing leg kicks without any cover fire and has been dodging bullets like... You already know.    

Aspinall is 14-3 with eleven TKO/KOs and three subs. The only fighter to make it out of the first round against Aspinall in the UFC is Andrei Arlovski. The questions about Aspinall’s cardio still remain. What will he look like when he finally ends up in a fight? Curtis Blaydes is the fighter to provide answers to those questions. Aspinall has slick counter takedowns off opponents’ offense, changing levels as they engage. But I wouldn’t count on him getting Blaydes to the mat. This should play out entirely on the feet, where Aspinall will have a massive speed advantage. But he will not necessarily be the more technical striker. At least, not defensively.   

Curtis Blaydes is the grizzly bear that ate Leo’s ass in The Revenant. And you already know, grizzly bears are like Little Leaguers running the bases; they skip first, second, and third base and go straight to eating your ass first. I mean eating you ass-first. Hyphens, homies. Blaydes has Volkswagen hippie vans for hands and has become an underrated striker. Although he lost to Sergei Pavlovich, he had big moments, landing heavy shots that would have slept most men. But Blaydes has forgotten the face of his father. He is a wrestler first and not a striker. Blaydes is at his best when he uses his striking to facilitate level change opportunities. But for a dominant grappler, Blaydes has zero career submissions. This guy would be unstoppable if he learned to take the back and sink in a rear-naked choke. Maybe he should go to Cowboys training camp and learn a thing or two about choking. Or he could start talking about the Federal Reserve and how it’s neither federal nor a reserve, and its shareholders include the Rothschilds and the Bank of England, and the CIA will show him something about choking real fookin’ quick. He could also just put on a Lebron jersey.   

Blaydes is 18-4 with thirteen KOs, including 13-4 in the UFC. Aspinall will be the higher output striker, averaging over seven SLpM to Blaydes’ three and a half. Tommy’s fights are usually measured in seconds, not minutes, so his numbers are skewed. Blaydes also averages three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes to Aspinall’s over five and a half. Implementing takedowns will be far more important to Blaydes, especially if he struggles with Aspinall’s speed early. Even if he is not successful, Blaydes needs to stay committed to closing the distance and working takedowns against the cage in the clinch.   

Aspinall is the heavy (-370) favorite, and Blaydes is the (+285) live-ass dog. I thought Aspinall came out with a terrible game plan in the first fight, and it was only a matter of a few seconds before Blaydes landed a fight-ending bomb. Blaydes can win this fight by slow-playing the early rounds, tying up Aspinall, and dragging him into deep waters for the first time in his career. Will this one go the distance? Have you ever taken a doodie and not looked at it before you flushed? Nope. The play for each fighter is a TKO/KO. I think the odds are a little off, and this fight will be the most competitive of Aspinall’s UFC career. Fantasy-wise, Blaydes is a gamble with a massive upside. I think I might do it... Don’t do it. I’m gonna do it. Curtis Blaydes via TKO, round two. Put it on wax.   

Props

Aspinall: TKO/KO (-175) Sub (+400) Dec (+1100) 

Blaydes: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+2800) Dec (+1000)

Winner: Curtis Blaydes | Method: TKO Rd.2

King Green (-140) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+110)

King: DK: $8.2k | Paddy: DK:$8k

You already know what time it is: Half past another King Green ass-whoopin’. King Green Forever. Bobby Digital is back and about to Bring Da Ruckus, bring da muhf**kin’ ruckus. Shame on a homie who tries to run game on King Green. King in the front, let your feet stomp. 2-0-9 on the left, brag shit to death. Dino on the right, wild for the night. Ask Jim Miller what happens when the Master of the Flying Daggers enters the 7th Chamber. It looked like a Hollywood satanic blood ritual the last time King Green stepped into the cage. It looked like a Lady Gaga spirit cooking in that bish. Miller looked like an extra in the club scene in Blade when the sprinklers came on. King turned Jim Miller into Jim Carrie. N’ah mean. When you’re talking about King Green, you’re talking about my favorite current fighter, so it goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway): WAR KING GREEN! 

King Green is a flow state striker with Liquid Swords for hands that break the laws of physics with impunity. In recent fights, King has started to show signs of losing a step defensively, but his hands are still fast as fook boooooooooy! His hands draft off each other on some NASCAR-type shit. King throws from his chest – fastballs straight down the middle, daring you to hit it. Bobby Digi doesn’t throw hooks or overhands; all his strikes are impaling spears straight to the target. And Bobby morphs between stances fluidly and can strike while moving in any direction. He may get out of position defensively, but he’s never out of position offensively. It ain’t a mystery; King Green is Chessboxing while everyone else is Checkersboxing. When it comes to Paddy Pimblett, King is a level above him in every category. But Can It Be All So Simple? The only way King can get into trouble is if he gives up his back along the cage or engages in reckless extended exchanges. Paddy is a slick grappler, but so is King Green. You just rarely get to see Green’s wrestling/grappling. If King stays quick and slick, he will bake himself a Paddy cake as fast as he can. If he fights emotionally and stands in the pocket, engaging in a firefight, he could get got.   

King Green is 32-15 for his career with eleven TKO/KOs and noine subs, and he has won three of his last four bouts, most recently adding the legend Jim Miller to his Gravel Pit at UFC 300. King averages six and a half SLpM to Pimblett’s five and out-landed Miller one hundred eighty-six to fifty-seven. Fantasy-wise, King is a league leader in strikes landed almost every time out. The play for King is a decision. Paddy is a tough SOB and has only been finished once (by submission) in his twenty-four-fight career. King will win this fight with volume and pressure. 

Paddy, clear your browser history. Like Pac, I See Death Around The Corner. Paddy doesn’t have enough time left to buy green bananas. Cue that Man On Fire! “I wish... you had more time.” This is the fight people have been waiting for, a fight to see how good Paddy really is. Between fights, Paddy turns into Barney Gumble, a bloated lush. “Don’t cry for me. I’m already dead.” Fin. Paddy has a part-time job as the Duff Beer man and gets paid in pints. My man gets more bloated than the U.S. offense budget – looking like Larry Holmes, flabby and sick. He retains water like a ShamWow. Speaking of wow, I’m wowed every time he makes weight. But he does. Every time. They got Paddy in an O-Lizzo commercial where he’s at a county fair participating in a pie-eating contest, and everything is in slow-mo, the sun is shining, the birds are clapping feathers in the trees, and it looks like the happiest day of his life. Even happier than the day he got out of Molly McCann’s friend zone. 

But Paddy goes from looking like a Biggest Loser Chris Farley to a chiseled athlete on fight day. You can hate on Paddy, but dude comes to fight every time. He’s not great at anything, but he’s good at creating unorthodox fights with weird ebbs and flows that are anything but a traditional fight. His striking is like a patchwork of single strikes stitched together like knock-off swap-meet clothing. He throws nothing but Shaun T combinations – left-right-left like his hands got marching orders. Paddy’s striking isn’t technical or dangerous, but he throws without fear or reservations. But Paddy is more of a grappler than a striker. His only problem is the fight Gods played a cruel joke on him. They made him a gifted grappler but without the ability to get the fight to the mat. His best takedown is getting taken down and reversing position. A back specialist, Paddy has noine career submissions, and six came via rear-naked choke. His game plan should include trying to clinch and press King against the cage to take his back in a scramble.   

King is the slight (-115) favorite, and Paddy is the (-105) live dog. This won’t be an easy fight for King. Paddy can scrap and will go out on his shield. I don’t see a finish for either fighter, but both are solid Fantasy options. They both throw for volume, and the fight will likely stay standing for the majority. Paddy is coming off his highest striking performance against Tony Ferguson, landing one hundred-six significant strikes. But Paddy didn’t finish Tony. King did. At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, I think King’s volume will be enough to steal close rounds. King Green via decision. On wax.   

Props

King: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+1800) Dec (+165) 

Paddy: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+450) Dec (+275)

Winner: King Green | Method: Decision

Arnold Allen (-250) vs. Giga Chickadze (+210)

Allen: DK: $9k | Giga: DK: $7.2k

The Liver King is back. Giga Chikadze destroys livers like psoriasis. After you fight Giga, they’ll have your liver, all rotted out and decayed, as an exhibit at Bodies: The Exhibition. That’s my worst nightmare, btw, dying and ending up full frontal in one of those body museums. I ain’t built for that. N’ah, mean? After a Giga Kick, your liver will wind up in AA, talking about, “I’m not an alcoholic. My owner just got the shit kicked out of me.” 

“Hey, buddy. The first step is denial.” 

“Listen, pal. I ain’t your buddy.” 

Giga will have you caramelizing your chonies like creme brûlée real fookin' quick. Maybe a renaming of the Giga Kick is in order. Before there was Amber Heard, there was Justine Kish, painting the town brown in the middle of a fight. The Kish Kick has a ring to it. When you get hit in the liver, your body shuts down involuntarily. You can’t fight it; you can only succumb to it. Giga’s kick is a hybrid Karate/Muay Thai round kick that travels at an upward angle and lands just below the elbow. It’s a debilitating strike that Giga sets on semi-auto between aggressive hand combinations. Hands that travel from below eye level from his waist. Giga is a gunslinger like Roland Deschain, a quick draw like Doc Holiday with trick shots like Annie Oakley.  

The key to Giga’s striking is pressure. Giga pressures like the ocean floor. He’s a fast starter as if he’s offside -unabated to the QB. He gets off the line quick and usually overwhelms opponents with volume early. Giga is a former Glory Kickboxer, competing at the highest striking level. But that won’t matter if he can’t stay on his feet against “Hey!” Arnold Allen. Allen has fallen in love with striking lately, but he made a name for himself as a formidable wrestler. Giga has a sixty-noine percent (“You couldn’t just round that to seventy?”) takedown defense and was taken down often early in his career. But in his last seven fights, he has only been taken down twice. Giga is 15-3 with noine TKO/KOs and one sub, and the play for him is a decision with moderate (60-70) significant strikes landed. This will be a tactical war on the feet and not a firefight.   

I recently ordered KFC on Door Dash, and Movsar Evloev showed up on my doorstep with two family buckets of my own words. “This seems like a fight just to keep Arnold Allen busy.” That was a tough turd to push after I choked it down. I didn’t think Movsar could strike with Arnold, but I was wrong. But I’ll say this: Those Arnold knees in the third round were all legal. DC was straight hating on the commentary. Hate! Hate! Hate! On some Player Haters Ball-type ish: 

“DC has dolphin teeth.” 

“It’s Boy George!” 

Anywho, speaking of Arnolds, Allen’s left hand is an Eraser, an electromagnetic rifle. It’s a Zeus lightning bolt chucked like a javelin from the summit of Mt. Olympus. And speaking of lightning, you don’t want to ride the Arnold Allen lightning, a left shin with an ankle sock tan line upside your head. Allen has a sneaky rear-leg kicking game, including a nasty high kick. What makes Allen tricky on the feet is his cadence; it’s socially awkward – something is just off; he’s off-beat. But it works for him. Allen doesn’t throw long combinations like Giga, but he can put together crispy 1-2s. The jab is Allen’s best strike. He’s artistic with the jab, dabbing you up with little brush strokes until your face is a morbid Picasso. 

The key for Allen against Giga will be making this an MMA fight and making Giga defend takedowns. Allen needs to knock the dust off his ASIC Matflex, strap on the leotard (not a derogatory word), and put Giga on his back. If it stays standing, Allen can go toe-to-toe with Giga, but he’ll be playing with fire. Allen is also a southpaw, which will make landing the Kish Kick a little trickier than against an opposite-stance fighter. Allen averages three and a half SLpM to Giga’s four, but Allen can make up for the discrepancy with pure power. 

Allen is 19-3 for his career with seven TKO/KOs and four subs. This is another fight that I see going the distance. Both are capable finishers, but their skills on the feet will be relatively even. Allen can distance himself from Giga on the mat. The wrestling threat is why Allen is the (-250) favorite, and Giga is the (-210) live dog. Giga will be a solid middle/low-tier Fantasy option. I’m not sure Allen will remain committed to wrestling, and long stretches on the feet will ensue. Giga’s aggression could cause Allen problems. But I’m going to pick hoping Allen is planning to get the fight to the mat. Arnold Allen via decision. On wax.   

Props

Allen: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+750) Dec (-110)  

Giga: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+2500) Dec (+400)

Winner: Arnold Allen | Method: Decision

Christian Duncan (-130) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+110)

Duncan: DK: $8.3k | Deebo: DK:$7.9k

This fight replaced Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape on the main card. Maybe it’s a preemptive move, anticipating Kape pulling out. At this point, you might as well just give Kape Brandon Royval’s nickname. Kape is the antithesis Antonio Cromartie. But I digress. Cue that “squeak, squeak, squeak!” Tuck ya chain (both of ‘em if you’re Tauheed Epps) and hide your bike, Brazilian Deebo is coming. “Squeak, squeak, squeak...”  

Brazilian Deebo reached a new level after his third eye was opened against Chidi Njokuani. Deebo looked like he got hit with a Craig brick, not a Chidi knee. There was a six-lane highway between Deebo’s eyes. You could read his mind. You could take a helicopter tour in that bish. They suspect an ancient, technologically advanced civilization similar to the Egyptians once lived in the canyon between Deebo’s eyes. But don’t get it twisted like Jandi’s eyes; Deebo went on to KO Chidi in the second round. In fact, Deebo went on to KO five of his six UFC dubs. What else would you expect from one of Alex Pereira’s sparring partners? Adamantium sharpens Adamantium. The UN probably has to intervene in those sessions and negotiate a peace treaty.   

Deebo’s unofficial nickname, RoboCop, is fitting. His movements are robotic and artificial, and his power is such that can only be produced by a machine. He is programmed with nifty little slip n’ rips, but overall, he’s mostly built for offense. Defensively, Deebo can get got. Brunno Ferreira got Deebo in the first round. And Deebo got got on the Contender Series against a guy you’ve never heard of. Deebo has yet to unleash the full potential of his ground game. This guy moves like a flyweight on the mat, complete with slick Jandiroba-like back-takes and vicious ground and pound between transitions. His clearest path to victory will be on the mat against the mall Karate black belt, Christian Duncan. 

Deebo is 15-5 with ten TKO/KOs and three subs and is 6-2 in the UFC. Both fighters average six SLpM, but Deebo also averages two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. While Duncan rocks a fifty percent takedown defense. Duncan has yet to be finished in his eleven-fight career, but he hasn’t fought a guy like Deebo. I’d give a hard look at the odds for a rare Deebo submission. I think he’ll try to wrestle early, and there is no comparing their Jiu-Jitsu.  

Christian Leroy Duncan looks like an uncle who claims he won the ‘87 Kumate when he was in Vietnam. Duncan looks like he rocks penny loafers with no socks. And you don’t want to fook with those dudes. Duncan is a cross between a Wonderboy and a Michael Venom Page, but not as good as either. He has plenty of ESPN 6 at two a.m. Karate competition kicks. The ones with biology teachers breaking cinder blocks and shit – screaming and yelling and shit. But his kryptonite is a kickboxer who can attack the legs and get inside on his long-range kicks. When he has to rely on his hands, that’s when you can beat Duncan. He has good hands but relies a lot on spinning attacks and kicks to initiate them. He has trouble closing the distance behind his hands alone.  

How good is he? Idk. I do know he can beat Deebo. Although their styles are complete opposites, the striking will be even, FX Nip/Tuck. Duncan is 10-1 for his career with eight TKO/KOs and one sub. And he’s 3-1 in the UFC with three TKO/KOs. The play for Duncan is a TKO/KO. He has the unorthodox style to catch anyone with some Kung Fu shit. If it plays out entirely on the feet, there will be value in a decision one way or the other, too. I can see this being a slow-paced, technical bout on the feet. The key for Duncan will be defending takedowns and not giving up his back on his way back to his feet.   

Duncan will be the (-135) favorite, and Deebo will be the (+115) live-ass dog. Get Deebo before he dips into the negative. If he wrestles, he will win this fight. Even if he doesn’t, his right hand is the Number One Stunna. It’s Cash Money. Deebo has more ways to win, and Duncan hasn’t fought a guy as dangerous as Deebo yet. Duncan lost to Armen Petrosyan, the only solid striker he has faced. I came here to do two things: 1) Pick King Green, and 2) pick Brazilian Deebo. Gregory Rodrigues via rear-naked choke, round two. Wax on, wax off.  

Props

Duncan: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+1200) Dec (+450)  

Deebo: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+550) Dec (+500)

Winner: Brazilian Deebo | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Gregory Rodrigues ($7.9k): This is essentially Rex Kwon Do’s sparring partner vs. Alex Pereira’s sparring partner – Rodrigues being the latter. If Deebo allows this to play out as a kickboxing match, it will be a 50/50 toss-up. But, as was the case when he fought Craig, Deebo has a clear path to victory on the mat. I say this every time Deebo fights: He has yet to fully embrace his Jiu-Jitsu game. Deebo may be a better grappler than a striker, and this is the perfect matchup to implement it. Slick transitions, Aljo-like back control, and heavy ground and pound are all in Deebo’s arsenal. If he doesn’t implement his grappling, Deebo will risk catching a roundhouse kick to the face from some dude wearing MC Hammer hot pants. But if he commits to his sleeper ground game, he will dominate this fight and produce potential fight-ending sequences.   

Manel Kape ($7.8k): The pull-out Champ, aka the anti-Cromartie, is back... maybe. Unlike Alec Baldwin, Kape shoots blanks after he pulls out from a fight. This guy should have already fought for the title and had a rematch or two. But he can’t seem to make it to fight night. If this fight does happen, Kape will be up against one of the most overrated fighters in all the divisions. Muhammad Mokaev is a 100% grappler with very limited skills on the feet. In his last bout against Alex Perez, a last-minute takedown preserved his undefeated record. Kape will be the most athletic fighter Mokaev has faced. Kape entered the UFC as a dominant wrestler when he was the Rizin champion, rocking the Asic MatFlex shoes in the cage and shooting double legs off slick striking. There’s a good chance that the takedown well will dry up at some point on Mokaev, and he will be up Shits Creek without any floaties. This won’t be competitive on the feet. Kape is quick, fast, and explosive and will dominate every minute of the stand-up.   

Giga Chikadze ($7.2k): Giga should be a reliable Fantasy option. I say “should be” because there is a chance Arnold Allen will try to make this a wrestler vs. grappler matchup. But I’m not so sure Allen will remain committed to wrestling for fifteen minutes. I think much of this fight will play out on the feet, where Giga is a world-class striker. Giga will be the higher-output striker with extreme aggression, especially in the early minutes. Allen has now lost two in a row and most recently got out-struck by Movsar Evloev, who isn’t nearly as dangerous on the feet as Giga is. The Kish Kick (formerly known as the Giga Kick) is a fight changer and the single best weapon of either fighter in this matchup. Even in a loss, Giga will put up some respectable striking stats and won’t be an all-or-nothing option.

$6k Bathroom Clearance Rack

Curtis Blaydes ($6.8k): Don’t sleep on Curtis Blaydes. His only losses within the UFC have been against true heathen, and two of his four losses came against Francis Ngannou. Blaydes’s striking is underrated. He gave Pavlovich hell for one round, exchanging kill shots with Pavlo Willy-nilly. In the first fight against Aspinall, Blaydes looked poised, and his hands looked crispy as they whistled by Aspinall’s head. Aspinall was willing to exchange leg kicks for Blaydes's right hand, and it felt like Blaydes only needed one or two more shots to find the target before Aspinall blew out his knee. Aspinall relies on speed almost exclusively. His striking defense is janky and consists of pulls and awkward slips when he’s under fire. He never uses a traditional hand guard to cover up. Aspinall took advantage of Pavlovich's wide punches with his fast, straight counters. But Blaydes has straight punches that will be hard to exploit. Plus, Aspinall won’t have his wrestling to fall back on. Blaydes is a real KO threat and a good risk if you’re digging in the Clearance Rack crates.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Lukasz Brzeski (+230): Brzeski is a catfish. He looks nothing like his Sherdog profile picture. Dude uses his high school yearbook picture when he looked like Brad Pitt in Fight Club, then shows up on fight night looking like Peter Griffin. But don’t let that fool you; this guy can throw hands. He was absolutely robbed in his debut against Martin Buday, a fight in which Brzeski out-struck Buday one hundred sixteen to sixty-six and still, somehow, lost the fight on the judges'scorecards. Brzeski’s opponent, Michael Parkin, is almost identical to Buday in physical attributes and skills. Parkin is slow and lumbering and could easily be 0-3 in the UFC instead of 3-0. Some guys get all the decisions. If Brzeski can avoid the clinch and keep his back off the cage, his superior hand speed will cause Parkin problems. This has split-decision written all over it, like male anatomy drawn all over the face of the first person to pass out at the shindig. This fight will be much closer than the odds suggest.   

Manel Kape (+135): I’m not sure Muhammad Mokaev’s wrestling will be enough to beat Manel Kape. Kape is a massive head case, and you never know if a focused Kape will show up on fight night. But this guy weighed in as an alternate for a title fight before making his debut. Kape is the dark horse in the division, but he has had trouble making it to fight night and has dropped several fights that would have catapulted him into a title shot. I knew Kape as a wrestler first before he made his debut. Like Gregory Rodrigues, Kape hasn’t unveiled his wrestling/grappling skills and has been content to strike. After the first round, it will be tough for Makaev to get Kape to the mat and keep him there. And if it stays standing for considerable stretches, Kape will box Mokaev’s face... off.   

Belal Muhammad (+210): The fact that Belal isn’t in the (+330) or worse says a lot. Don’t forget the fifth round of the Leon vs. Colby. Leon basically quit in that round, taking for granted that he was up on the scorecards. And even though he landed The Kick against Usman, he looked defeated in that fight after the first five minutes. Leon can be broken mentally or, at the least, lose his focus throughout a fight. Belal will be at a severe speed and technical striking deficiency early, but if he can survive into the third round and beyond, I think he will slowly start to take over with pressure and by forcing Leon to defend takedowns. Belal needs to go full Merab and make this fight look like Merab vs. Aldo and Merab vs. Yan. He has the cardio, wrestling, and awkward striking to make this a grinding affair and an affair he can steal late.   

Pick ‘Em

Muhammad Mokaev (-155) vs. Manel Kape (+135) 

Winner: Manel Kape 

Method: Decision 

Nathaniel Wood (-440) vs. Daneil Pineda (+330) 

Winner: Nathaniel Wood 

Method: Decision 

Molly McCann (-280) vs. Bruna Brasil (+230) 

Winner: Molly McCann 

Method: Decision 

Caolan Loughran (-205) vs. Jake Hadley (+175) 

Winner: Caolan Loughran 

Method: Decision 

Michael Parkin (-280) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+230) 

Winner: Lukasz Brzeski 

Method: Decision 

Oban Elliott (+135) vs. Preston Parsons (-155) 

Winner: Preston Parsons 

Method: Decision 

Sam Patterson (-340) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+270) 

Winner: Sam Patterson 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Shauna Bannon (-170) vs. Alice Ardelean (+145) 

Winner: Shauna Bannon 

Method: Decision 

Modestas Bukauskas (-145) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+125) 

Winner: Modestas Bukauskas 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1