Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Dricus Du Plessis (-110) vs. Israel Adesanya (-110)

DDP: DK: $7.9k | Izzy: DK:$8.3k

At the end of Predator 2, after Danny Glover kills the Predator, Alex Pereira comes out and hands Danny (Mr. Glover to you) a 1715 flintlock pistol. If you pay close attention, you can see Israel Adesanya’s skull mounted like a hunting trophy on the ship's wall. Most people think the story ends when Danny leaps from the ship as it takes off. But after the credits, there is a ghost scene in which an Israel Adesanya ghola, on the brink of yet another death, exacts revenge on Alex Pereira. Izzy then carries Pereira’s severed head off-screen, the veins and viscera hanging like severed electrical wires as the scene fades to black. 

Alien and Predator fans still clash, arguing if the story is truly over. The Predator fans claim the Predators have only gotten stronger since the Izzy Ghola put three arrows in Pereira’s chest, having gone on to conquer many planets, as the Alien race has declined and fallen on hard times after losing their short-lived supremacy over the galaxy to what was thought to be an inferior race in their next battle. But with a planned Alien invasion of a new enemy on the horizon and the Predators off conquering distant worlds, any talk of a final battle between the oldest of foes will have to wait.   

Israel Adesanya is the Alien to Alex Pereira’s Predator. Izzy defended his belt many times. His career is legendary. But his crowning moment will likely always be when he was down to his last strike in his fourth fight against Pereira and hit a Joe Carter in the ‘93 World Series walk-off with his back against the cage, literally and figuratively. Homie was like Kirk Gibson limping around the bases after having his legs thrown in a wood chipper up until that point. On that night, Izzy was Captain Ahab. But instead of sinking to the bottom of the ocean, caught in the vortex of a massive whirlpool, Izzy slayed his white whale. “Swerve me? Ye cannot swerve me, else ye swerve yourselves!” 

In the torrent of life, large swells are often followed by steep lulls. Immediately after his most ascending victory, Izzy suffered his most profound loss. Sean Strickland ambushed Izzy, lying in wait with a fully-auto BAR .30-06 and riddled Izzy with holes, then put his body on display like the Bonnie and Clyde Ford V-8 in a casino in Primm, Nevada. But if we learned anything from the Izzy vs. Pereira saga, it’s that Izzy has that dog in him like the Snoop Dogg No Limit album covers. It took him four attempts to climb Mt. Everest. Twice, Izzy was hauled like furniture down the mountain by Sherpas. But in the end, he still climbed that bih.   

But does he still have it? Izzy is at that point in his career when this question will preface every fight until he leaves his gloves in the middle of the Octagon. At his pinnacle, Izzy is an enigma striker. Fighting him is like standing in a house of mirrors with an infinite amount of Izzy's surrounding you – all attacking in unison but with differing attacks. “Destroy the image, and you will break the enemy.” Fighting Izzy is like Bruce Lee fighting that guy with the hand claw hiding behind mirrors. Izzy will even hit you with that nifty little guillotine back-heel kick. The two most difficult physical attributes to overcome are speed and length. Izzy has bofa those. He can stiff-arm you and hold a Heisman pose while kicking the shit out of you and punching you with his free hand. And his hands are still quicker than the darkness between blinks. 

Izzy relies heavily on leg kicks to create damage and immobilize his opponents. A big reason why Sean Strickland dominated Izzy was because Strickland took away Izzy’s leg kicks. Strickland checked every single one. He also made Izzy miss. A lot. Dricus Du Plessis doesn’t have Strickland’s defensive prowess. This is the perfect tune to give Stella her groove back. If Izzy can keep his back off the cage and avoid the clinch, he can pick Du Plessis apart from the outside. If he defends one or two takedowns—he rocks a seventy-seven percent career takedown defense—Du Plessis will abandon his wrestling. If Izzy ends up on his back, he has to avoid the mount. Dricus can finish Izzy with strikes from the mount.   

Dricus Duplicitous. This guy had everyone fooled. Most people's reaction to Dricus Du Plessis was, “Who is this guy rolling in with Kenny Smith-early onset twisted knees and pigeon toes, talking about he’s going to beat Israel Adesanya after he nearly got planted like petunias in the first round against Derek Brunson?” I don’t think I’ve ever picked Dricus Du Plessis to win a fight, and he’s the Champ and undefeated in the UFC. This guy is the Teflon L Don. L’s roll off Du Plessis like water on a duck’s ass. L’s and Du Plessis mix like bleach and ammonia. He manipulates time, dodges Ls like Neo, and does the Hammer dance all the way to the bank. Du Plessis dodges Ls like Ryan Spann and Anthony Smith dodge dubs. Like Renato Moicano, Dricus Du Plessis’s accountant said he can’t afford to lose. No matter how heavy he gasses or how much damage he takes, Du Plessis just finds a way to win. 

Du Plessis’s style is ugly, like AC Green. You already know! Hit that “Big Egos!” “You look like AC Green, b**ch, don’t call here anymore.” Dricus ain’t a professional Hittman; his hands are sloppy like Draymond Green at practice. What makes Dricus dangerous are the angles from which he throws – groundbreaking angles, angles newly discovered. Tomahawk overhands, closed-fist Power Slap hooks, and everything in between. Dricus is dangerous because he’s awkward - awkward, like asking Lizzo if it’s a boy or a girl. He has no discernible cadence on the feet, attacking in Morse Code-like abrupt starts and stops. Dricus reminds me of a pimped-out Keith Jardine. Like Keith Jardine got pimped on Pimp My Ride and got outfitted with a hot tub with a little cherub water fountain in the back. Jardine had possibly the most awkward herky-jerky style of all time, firing unassuming bombs from places you didn’t know existed. Angles defeat traditional guards, and sparring partners with Du Plessis’s odd style are hard to find.   

If Du Plessis can get it there, his best path to victory is on the mat. He averages three takedowns per fifteen minutes and was credited with landing six against Strickland. But Du Plessis couldn't control the top position, only logging two minutes of control time. It will be different if he can get Izzy down, especially if he can do it in the open mat where Izzy can’t use the cage to get back to his feet. Having Du Plessis on top of you is like falling into the Gorilla exhibit at the zoo. It’s not long before you are the handful of shit the gorilla lobs into the crowd of spectators. N’ah mean? Dricus has heavy ground and pound and deadly chokes. He has ten career submissions along with noine career TKO/KOs in twenty-one professional wins. Dricus is a rare dual-finishing threat who can finish you on the feet or the mat. Also, Du Plessis will be the higher output striker averaging six and a half SLpM to Izzy’s just under four. And a good way to beat Izzy is with volume.   

Izzy will be the (-135) favorite, and Du Plessis will be the live-ass (+115) dog. I’m not sleeping on Du Plessis anymore. He can win this fight. My man is the Champ and entering his first title defense as the dog. That’s disrespectful. Cue that Jordan meme: “And I took that personally.” Dricus will first have to defend leg kicks, and second, close the distance. Two things that will be difficult but not impossible for a guy with an ambiguous style like Du Plessis. Both guys can finish this fight. If Dricus does, I see it happening from the top position with strikes. If Izzy does, it will be from a predator drone strike outside the pocket. But I say that to say this: I think the play is a decision either way. This will be a close, grimy fight.   

The main event winning streak never got to streaking after Marcin Tybura shit the bed like Amber Heard last weekend. This might be a classic put-my-money-where-my-mouf-isn't situation. That’s where I pick one fighter and bet on the other. There’s a ton of value for Du Plessis, but after nearly a year off, I think Izzy will look sharp on the feet, and he’s tough to get down to the mat. Israel Adesanya via decision. Put it on wax.  

Props

DDP: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+600) Dec (+400) 

Izzy: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+2500) Dec (+225)

Winner: Israel Adesanya | Method: Decision

Steve Erceg (-165) vs. Kai Kara-France (+140)

Erceg: DK: $8.8k | Kara-France : DK: $7.4k

The Lollipop Guild front man, Kai Kara-France, is back. But lately, he has been more like Kai Kara-Perris, as in the desolate city in southern California, having lost his last two fights. And deep fake A-A-Ron Rodgers, Steve Erceg, is back. Homie was one errant takedown attempt at the beginning of the fifth round away from winning the flyweight belt in his last appearance. Kara-Perris is one fight removed from an interim title fight against Brandon Moreno, and a dub for either fighter will put them right back at the head of the line for a title shot. This is a crunchy little banger that could be the headlining act of any Fight Night.   

Don’t let Steve Erceg’s looks fool you. He looks like seventy-five percent of the world's population. Erceg looks like “Where Are They Now” Aaron Rogers; Eastbound and Down on his luck Aaron Rogers. To bullies, Erceg looks like a free trapper keeper, some pogs slammers, and a Charlotte Hornets puffy Apex jacket. He looks like Homer’s unsworn enemy, Frank Grimes. Ironically, Ol’ Grimy was killed off when he impersonated Homer’s recklessness, grabbing a pair of exposed electrical wires and subsequently being electrocuted. In a way, Erceg also self-deleted due to a lack of carelessness in his title fight against Toja Cat, Alexandre Pantoja. The fight was even at two rounds apiece heading into the fifth round, when Erceg opened the round with a double leg attempt that ended with him on his back. This was after Erceg was dominating the stand-up. But old shit talks, and new shit walks. Erceg had a Hawk Tua girl overnight rise to fame. He was the Jeremy Lin of the NBA, and his first three fights were like Lin Sanity. Erceg beat a top-ten fighter, David Dvorak, in his short-notice debut, and, after just three fights, found himself in a title fight.   

They call Erceg Astro Boy because he’ll creep up on ya like a white Astro van in a Walmart parking lot if you get to thinking shit’s sweet. Erceg is as well-rounded a fighter as there is in the flyweight division, and even though he lost a close decision to the Champ, Erceg proved, like the Wu-Tang Clan, he ain’t nuthin’ to fook wit. On the feet, Erceg is a Sadie Hawkins striker; he waits for you to invite him to the dance, then leaves with the Belle of the ball. Homie is a slick counter striker. All night long, he countered Pantoja’s wild aggression, never retreating in a straight line and striking on his way out the back door. Erceg’s boxing is tight like hallways, and he might be one of the best all-around strikers in the division after his title performance. But where Erceg is special is on the mat. 

Erceg engaged Pantoja in Pantoja’s world, on the mat, all night long and was never in any real danger. He gave up noine takedowns, but Erceg got back to his feet each time. Erceg has six career subs to two TKO/KOs, and although his striking is elite, Erceg might be a better grappler than a striker. He can go toe-to-toe with Kara-Perris on the feet, but Erceg’s easiest path to victory will be using his striking to set up takedowns and dominating the top position while neck hunting like Mossy Oak and elk urine. Erceg is 12-2 for his career, and both fighters average four and a half SLpM. But Erceg also averages nearly one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Erceg is an all-around Fantasy point scorer, a utility player, an Archi Cianfracco, who can play any position in the field.   

Kai Kara is the Fall Out Boy to Israel Adesanya’s Radioactive Man. He looks like someone left Volkanovski in the dryer too long without a dryer sheet. His style is like consignment Volkanovski – Goodwill Volkanovski. He’s a Ross clearance rack Volk – if you rock him to school, all the homies will clown you. Kara-Perris is a nifty, technical striker, but after seeing him fight the last several years, I think he’s missing something. IDK what it is, but I’m cancelling after the trial period; I ain’t buying Kara- Perris as a real title threat. I’m just window shopping; I ain’t buying him. Matter of fact, hit that Fiddy “Window Shopper!” “Homie, you’re a window shopper, in the jewelry store, looking at shit you can’t buy.” Stance switches, superior hand speed, and takedown defense like Belal Muhammad are all traits of Kara-Perris, but he’s missing something.  

Kara-Perris has that Westminster topiary poodle dog in him – that toy dog that a Betty carries in a purse. And I need that bite-the-mailman-in-the-ass type of dog. I need that dog that got Willie Jones, aka Craig’s dad, by the ass type of dog. When the game is on the line, Kara-Perris is the type to pass up the last shot. I need that Ray Allen in the corner set on fully auto, ready to scorn all the fair-weather Heat fans who left the game early type of dog. When the chips are down, Kai tends to fold. And Kenny Rogers already told ya, you gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em. Kara will have to go full Steph Curry in the last two minutes of the gold medal game if he wants to beat Steve Erceg. The key for Kara will be his eighty-eight percent takedown defense. You already know... Dude has takedown defense like my neighbor's Christmas lights – they've been up since the winter of 2020. Kara-Perris has that JRE takedown defense. If he can make this a kickboxing match, Kai can out-point Erceg on the feet.   

I say out-point because I don’t see a finish in this fight. Six of Kara’s eight UFC dubs came via decision, and two of Erceg’s three UFC dubs were decisions. I think the skills on the feet will be neck-and-neck, and the difference will be the effectiveness of Erceg’s ground game. Erceg is the (-200) favorite, and Kara-Perris is the (+170) live-ass dog. Kai is among the elite strikers in the division, and the difference will be in the final five minutes when Kara-France turns into Kara-Perris and plays shit safe instead of playing to win the game. Both fighters will be high Fantasy scorers; much of this fight will play out on the feet and should lead to high significant strikes. Don’t forget who picked Erceg to beat David Dvorak in his debut. Steve Erceg via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Erceg: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+650) Dec (+120) 

Kara-France: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+2500) Dec (+240)

Winner: Steve Erceg | Method: Decision

Mateusz Gamrot (-360) vs. Dan Hooker (+280)

Gamrot: DK: $9.3k | Hooker: DK:$6.9k

It doesn't get more grappler vs. striker than this one. Gamrot is possibly the best takedown artist (a takedown Van Gogh) in the lightweight division. Yes, I know who the champ is. But Makhachev doesn’t have to rely on his wrestling anymore as much as Gamrot does. There’s a level of desperation in Gamrot’s takedowns that makes it nearly impossible to stay on your feet against him. Dan Hooker dodged a bullet like he was standing at a podium in Pennsylvania when he dropped his last scheduled fight against King Green. I keed! I keed! King went on to get first-round KO’d by Jalin Turner, and after King’s latest performance, Hooker likely would have done the same. But now Hooker has an infinitely tougher task fighting a guy who could have probably won a wrestling gold medal last week. This is a banger for pure MMA fans.   

When it comes to takedowns, Gamrot is a hyena that will track you for hundreds of miles through the desert, nipping at your ankles and tasting your blood until you finally succumb to the elements. After that, he’ll pick your carcass clean, closed casket. He’s the head hyena in The Lion King who eventually eats Scar’s ass. No Diddy. Like Max Holloway is a volume striker, Gamrot is a volume wrestler. He never stops shooting doubles. He’ll turn you into RP McMurphy from One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, catching a full lobotomy after a fight with him. The CIA uses his takedowns to create mind-warped patsies. MK Gamrot. You’ll be seeing takedowns in your dreams, and like Freddy, he’ll roll up on you while you’re kicking game at an Olympic women’s beach volleyball player, pick you up, and throw you for five. Nightmare On Gamrot St. This mf will have you hallucinating – shrimping and stuffing the head to get back to your feet on your wedding night. He’ll have you pummeling and digging for underhooks during the Sign of Peace at church.

“Peace be with yo—” 

“Not this time, muhf**ker!”  

Ankle pick, pinky toe pick, or a single hair on your ass pick is all this guy needs to take you down. If he touches you, you end up on your back. And not in a good way like Meek. Wait, what? Gamrot strings together Killer Instinct takedown combinations. Chaining Day. Gamrot throws up the R-O-C and chain wrestles, one takedown attempt leading to a never-ending loop. His special move is the Showgirls single-leg. He’ll turn you into an Amateur Night pole dancer, hiking your leg over your head like you’re doing the standing splits. Fook his striking stats (three SLpM), Gamrot averages nearly five and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. His path to victory will be spamming level changes and controlling Dan Hooker on the mat for fifteen minutes. Gamrot is position over submission, and the play for him is a decision.   

Dan Hooker has that dingo in him, that indigenous scavenger dog in him that can survive in the most desolate conditions. In his last bout against Jalin Turner, the Hooker who fought WW3 against Dustin Poirier showed up. I thought that Dan Hooker was T.I. and Justin Timberlake Dead and Gone. Hooker overcame being hurt early and went on to all but dominate the last ten minutes. And Jalin Turner is a real problem. Hooker uses that unique Australian kickboxing stance, upright and rigid, with the hands extended out in front. You see Izzy using this style and most of the City Boxing crew. 300 rear-leg teeps set the stage for Hooker’s heavy long punches. Range is Hooker’s best weapon. Gamrot will have to take massive risks closing the distance. Hooker can dictate range with nasty standing knees and long-range kicks. Much like Alex Pereira, Hooker is excellent at attacking the legs without turning over the hips, and his calf kicks will be the key to slowing down Gamrot’s level changes. 

Hooker’s major malfunction is that he takes Street Fighter bonus round damage in nearly every fight. After twenty-one fights in the UFC, Hooker looks like Christian Bale in The Machinist after leaving a pound of flesh inside the Octagon after each one. The good news is that Gamrot isn’t a damage fighter. He will look to control Hooker more than risk letting him up by opening up with ground and pound. The key for Hooker will be up-the-middle strikes, specifically his standing knees. His standing knees will be natural level change repellents. Teeps and uppercuts will also keep Gamrot honest when he closes the distance. Hooker is 23-12 for his career with eleven TKO/KOs and seven subs. I would say Hooker is the bigger finishing threat. But he will likely have to get the fight into the third round to have a chance. If the takedown well dries up on Gamrot, he will get picked apart on the feet.   

Gamrot is the (-350) favorite, and Hooker is the (+275) mangy-ass dog. Hooker has a career eighty percent takedown defense, but that won’t mean much against Gamrot. His takedowns are just on a different level. Without a TKO/KO finish (likely late), Hooker won’t have enough time between defending takedowns and scrambling back to his feet to land a high number of significant strikes. That being said, the play for Hooker is a TKO/KO finish. It will be hard for him to pull out a decision; he’ll have to finish the fight to win. But I have to roll with the wrestler in this one. Mateusz Gamrot via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Gamrot: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+450) Dec (-150) 

Dan Hooker: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+2000) Dec (+550)

Winner: Mateusz Gamrot | Method: Decision

Tai Tuivasa (+175) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-225)

Shoey: DK: $7.3k | Rozenstruik: DK: $8.9k

They say you can’t polish a Rozenstruik. But it seems someone buffed out all those bird stains on his head from when he used to stand around in the Octagon like those dudes on Las Vegas Blvd covered in silver paint, posing as statues. The Toraja people must have cast a resurrection spell on him. Until his last fight, tourists would travel the globe to take pictures with Rozenstruik in the Octagon like he was the eighth wonder of the world. Weekend at Rozenstruik’s is now a quaint little bed and breakfast in the mountainous region of Indonesia and no longer a reference to Rozenstruik’s cornermen carrying him around the cage while controlling his arms and legs to get some activity out of him. This guy used to straight loiter in the cage, and the arena’s management had to call the cops to get him out of there. Shit or get off the pot is known as the Rozenstruik Edict.   

I speak of Rozenstruik’s notorious inactivity inside the cage in the past tense because he landed one hundred and twenty-seven significant strikes in his last bout, a main event against Shamil Gaziev. He surpassed his total career strikes landed in one fight. Is Max Rozenstruik a trend or a one-off? That’s the big question. Rozenstruik is a victim of his own power. It’s so potent that he got comfortable waiting for the stars to align like Orion’s belt before unloading with a nuke. He could stand around for twenty-four minutes and fifty seconds, as he did against Alistair Overeem, then twitch. And you’ll wake up outside the pearly gates, greeted by your dead dog Buttons with your fourth-grade Goosebumps book report in his mouth. A former man of few punches has now adopted the words of wisdom: “You can’t take your strikes with you when you die.”    

Or has he? He better hope so because Tai Shoeyvasa don’t play that like Homie the Clown. Tuivasa is entropy in a cage. He’s chaos in human form, and Rozenstruik will have to engage in a firefight whether he wants to or not. For better or worse, Tuivasa is one hunnid percent knock-out-or-get-knocked-out. It’s been mostly the later lately. His Sherdog record looks like traffic at the Tijuana border – shit is backed up all the way to Chula Vista. Shoey is streakier than my five-year-old’s Mutant Mayhem chonies. He started his UFC career 3-0, then lost three in a row, then won five in a row, only to go on a current four-fight L streak. Lately, my man has been getting KO’d like female boxers. But it wasn’t too long ago when he had Ciryl Gane skating the mall on a pair of Heelys in the second round, a follow-up away from an improbable title shot.   

Shoeyvasa recorded his first TKO/KO at Woodstock ‘99 in the Korn mosh pit. He’s the primordial mosh pit striker who can switch styles from a Slip Knot mosh to a Limp Bizkit mosh to an EDM rave with glowsticks and a pacifier in his mouth mid-fight. Shoey throws hands like he’s swinging Stonehenge, and when he lands, people fly across the ring like they sat on an airbag.  

Shoeyvasa goes out on his shield one hunnid percent of the time – he doesn’t save the last overhand for himself; he throws it at the next muhf**ker who tries to punch him.  Shoey is at his most dangerous when he’s in his death throes, like Doc Holiday when he hopped out of his deathbed to bust a cap in Johnny Ringo’s ass. When you think he's on his way down, he will land a kill shot. 

The numbers: Fook ‘em! This fight ain’t going the distance. One of these guys will be hooked up to the sleep apnea machine after this one. Biggie Boy is the (-215) favorite, and Shoeyvasa is the (+180) live-ass dog. Fook the odds; this is a toss-up. Shoey will have volume on his side. He can match Rozenstruik’s power, and he puts combinations together better. Shoey is the more fluid boxer. The only question is if his chin will hold up. Fook it. I’m gonna do it. Don’t do it, mane. I’m gonna ride the Shoeyvasa war wagon one more time. Tai Tuivasa via TKO, round one. On wax.  

Props

Rozenstruik: TKO/KO (-150) Sub (+2500) Dec (+750)  

Shoey: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+3000) Dec (+1000)

Winner: Tai Tuivasa | Method: TKO Rd.1

Li Jingliang (+280) vs. Carlos Prates (-360)

Jingliang: DK: $7k | Prates: DK:$9.2k

The Mona Lisa of MMA, aka the mansion gargoyle, Li Jingliang, is back! You already know: Ain’t shit pretty about a Li Jingliang fight. Li is still wearing his plaid blue suit from the UFC 279 presser that never happened, like a kid wearing his Little League uniform out in town after a game. Homie got stood up like a stag date. What’s worse is that Li hasn’t fought since losing that fight two years ago. Double worse is that Jingliang is coming in off a backiotomy and neck surgery. Triple worse is that he’s fighting a straight Apocalypto savage in Carlos Prates in his return fight. Ya’ll must’ve forgot, like Roy Jones, if you think Li Jingliang is gonna come out here and get his ass cracked like it’s something to do. This will be a fookin’ stand-up banger. 

Li Jingliang has a fiend’s cadence on the feet – he's Tyrone Biggums looking for some rocks when he steps into the cage. He writhes and contorts and shambles and lumbers and scratches and claws around the Octagon while unloading sneaky hooks and overhands. Li’s odd movement creates a natural distraction that allows him to load up on hooks without telegraphing. He’s one of the best at using a broken cadence – an intentionally random cadence, so you can’t figure out patterns. Li’s special weapon is his left hook. His left hook makes ‘em say “Uuuuuuh, nah, nah, nah, nah,” like Master P. Quit playin’ and hook my boy Li up with a No Limit tank chain to rock with his JC Penny clearance one-piece suit. You know Li is feeling himself inside the cage when he looks like Richard Simmons jazzercising to Elton John’s greatest hits in that bish. My man will throw jazz hands at you and work up a rich lather with a smile on his face, even if he gets put to bed early.   

Jingliang is an underrated striker, but his path to victory is using his wrestling to get Prates to the mat. Most people think of Chimaev carrying Li like a damsel in distress when they think of Li’s ground game. But Li averages nearly a takedown and a half and can rely on timely takedowns to eke out close rounds. On the feet, Li needs to attack the body and not headhunt. Bring the head to him. Prates is a long mf, and it’s easy getting ahead of your feet, reaching when facing a fighter with better reach. Li is 19-8 for his career with ten TKO/KOs and four subs. Li’s last four dubs all came via TKO/KO, and Prates’ aggressive style will all but likely lead to a finish one way or the other.   

Carlos Prates is a problem. This guy’s frame was engineered specifically for cracking asses. Prates is longer than Floyd Mayweather reading War and Peace – longer than a Daniel Day Lewis movie. This guy throws hands like runaway trains, and with a win over Li Jingliang, he’s hoping to turn them into Money Trains. You look like you got hit with a patronus spell when Prates hits you. In a previous life, this guy rolled heads down the side of an Aztec pyramid. He's an executioner who refuses the black hood. He wants you to see the pleasure in his eyes as he brings the axe down. Hit that Third Eye Blind “Jumper!” “I wish you would step back from that ledge, my friend.” 

“I ain’t your fiend, buddy.” 

Prates fights like he’s standing on the ledge of the Empire State Building, and a single step backward means death. Prates bears his soul – puts himself out there – becomes vulnerable in every exchange. His style is NC 17 and requires you to have a parent or guardian in attendance to watch one of his fights. You gotta have someone from the inside open the back door for you to sneak in to watch a Prates fight. Kill-or-be killed on every exchange – all offense and no defense. That’s Carlos Prates. His special move is the Tiger Knee. This mf is the real-life Sagat and will knee a hole in you like Andy Dufresne’s cell. Prates is 19-6 with fourteen TKO/KOs and three subs. And he’s 2-0 in the UFC with back-to-back KOs. Both fighters average around four SLpM, but Prates will have a big power and reach advantage.   

Prates is the (-330) favorite, and Li Jingliang is the (+265) live dog. Li is a savvy striker and can bob and weave his way inside and deliver devastating hooks and short overhands. Prates relies solely on his shoulders to defend and ultimately has to rely on his chin to defend punches. Li can also mix some takedowns off his strikes or the ensuing chaos. There’s definitely value in Li Jingliang, and I think this fight favors a finish. There’s value in a decision, but I think Jingliang will be willing to engage in a firefight and one of these guys will get got. Again, this is closer to another toss-up in my book. Carlos Prates via TKO, round two.   

Props

Prates: TKO/KO (-110) Sub (+1200) Dec (+250)  

Jingliang: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+2200) Dec (+600)

Winner: Carlos Prates | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Dricus Du Plessis ($7.9k): He’s goofy and awkward, and sometimes, his striking is borderline amateurish. But he’s good. And there’s no denying that anymore. This will be a close fight, and Du Plessis will have a good shot at winning this fight. If he can get Izzy to the mat once or twice, it could be enough to steal close rounds. The mistake every Du Plessis opponent makes: They read the first sentence and roll into the cage looking like Charlie Murphy stepping on the court against Prince and his crew. They write off Du Plessis as I have done before every single fight. Fool me once... fool me seven times... But not this time. Dricus can make this shit ugly like AC Green – anything other than the traditional kickboxing pace that Izzy thrives in. With two extra rounds to land significant strikes, Du Plessis should put up solid striking stats, barring an early finish.   

Ricardo Ramos ($7.7): This one is a true gamble. In one fight, Ricardo Ramos can look like the second coming of Anthony Pettis and Charles Oliveira, and in the next, like it’s his first day at new hire orientation, looking around like John Travolta, wondering when he even applied. This guy has one of the best special moves in the game, a counter-spinning back elbow that he can land like a fundamental strike. When under attack, he slides backward, allowing the opponent to pursue him, before spinning and throwing the back elbow. He has finished multiple fights this way. And Ramos has dangerous grappling. His major malfunction is that he travels along the Tony Romo spectrum. He just finds Ls at the bottom of dub stacks. When you least expect it, he’ll be tapping to a guillotine choke, as was the case in his previous two fights. But he’s dangerous, and his opponent, Joshua Culibao, has also lost two in a row and hasn’t been very impressive.   

Tai Shoeyvasa ($7.3k): This is an all-or-nothing pick. Shoey will either KO Rozenstruik with the quickness or he will be KO’d with the quickness. Combinations will be the key for Shoey. He puts them together far better than Rozentstruik and can use volume to overwhelm. The times Rozenstruik has been finished on the feet are when he gets trapped against the cage and wilts under a barrage of punches. That’s Shoey’s M.O. Shoey can pressure Rozenstruik against the cage and attack with extended combos. The bad news for Shoey is that he has lost four in a row, two KOs, and two subs. Five in a row, and the Tony whispers will begin.   

$6k Bathroom Clearance Rack

Alex Reyes ($6.4k): This guy has fought once in the last six years and is 0-2 in the UFC with losses to Charlie Campbell and the bare-knuckle King, Mike “Platinum” Perry. This isn’t a pick in confidence but rather a lack of confidence in his opponent, Tom Nolan. Nolan is a janky striker, faking it until he makes it as an elite striker. I just don’t see it. Nolan was KO’d in his debut by the super mid-Nikolas Motta and nearly KO’d in his sophomore outing against the equally as mid-Victor Martines. If there’s anything I can say about Alex Reyes, it’s that he can crack. If he can find Nolan’s chin (which isn’t hard), he can flip the board early in the night. Homie is 13-4 for his career with noine TKO/KOs and four subs, a one-hunnid percent finishing rate.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Li Jingliang (+280): Nothing about Li Jingliang is pretty. This fight will be no exception. Carlos Prates has over one hundred professional Muay Thai bouts in Thailand to his name and is as dangerous a striker as there is. But this will be only his third UFC bout while Jingliang has been facing the scariest mf’s in the division since 2014. Li has sneaky power and an awkward boxing style. Prates maximizes offense and minimizes defense. His head never deviates from the centerline, and he relies on his shoulders to defend more than a traditional guard. Jingliang will test that chin, and if the striking gets a bit hairy, he can switch shit up and take the fight to the mat. I could be wrong, but I see this as a toss-up, and there is a ton of value in Jingliang as a straight-up bet.   

Tai Shoeyvasa (+180): For a coin flip scrap, I’ll take (+180) odds. Who knows if Rozenstruik will turn into his previous stationary self, unwilling to engage until the ten-second clap sounds. And if he does come out swinging, as he did against Gaziev, there’s a 50/50 chance it will be Rozenstruik face down, inhaling all that foot funk off the canvas.  

Kai Kara-France (+140): Steve Erceg’s biggest advantage will be on the mat. The problem is getting Kara-France down is a fool’s errand. Kara-France rocks an eighty-percent takedown defense. If he can keep the fight standing, the stand-up will be nip/tuck. The big question is, will he turn into Kai Kara-Perris in the third round and play shit safe? Kara-Perris lacks that killer instinct late in fights. He turns into LeBron James, passing up the last shot. If Kara-France stays aggressive for the duration, this will be another toss-up.   

Pick ‘Em

Junior Tafa (-130) vs. Valter Walker (+110) 

Winner: Junior Tafa 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Joshua Culibao (-140) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+120) 

Winner: Joshua Culibao 

Method: Decision 

Casey O’Neill (+120) vs. Luana Santos (-150) 

Winner: Luana Santos 

Method: Decision 

Jack Jenkins (-800) vs. Herbert Burn (+500) 

Winner: Jack Jenkins 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Tom Nolan (-1300) vs. Alex Reyes (+725) 

Winner: Alex Reyes 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Kenan Song (-170) vs. Ricky Glenn (+150) 

Winner: Kenan Song 

Method: Decision 

Stewart Nicoll (-225) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+185) 

Winner: Stewart Nicoll 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.