Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Alexandre Pantoja (-250) vs. Kai Asakura (+210)

Toja: DK: $8.8k | Asakura: DK:$7.4k

When it comes to season finales, you can put this one up there with Tony Soprano sitting in Holsten’s diner with “Don’t Stop Believing” spinning in the jukebox. Or maybe Bran the Broken movin’ on up like the Jeffersons and trading in his wood grain ass groove for the Iron Throne. Technically, this isn’t a season finale. There’s still one more card for 2024. But in the year of UFC 300, this is the final Pay-per-view. One thousand one hunnid noineteen dollars and eighty-six cents: That’s how much I owe Dana after fourteen PPVs. That’s the equivalent of sitting in an emergency room for ten minutes. That’s a down payment on a trip to Costco. You can picture me on my Scrooge McDuck shit, back stroking in a pool filled with dank green nugs for eleven hunnid dollars. Best believe you won’t catch me at Confession on Sunday morning after this one, “Forgive me, Father, for I have streamed.”   

The main event for UFC 310 was supposed to be Belal vs. Shavkat, a fookin’ banger. But Belal had to withdraw, and the co-main got the bump up. Make no mistake, this is Dana and the UFC brass colluding with Elon to run main event winning streak interference. Kai Asakura...  Yo! Hit that The Who “Who are you!” Who, who, who, who? Like the Good Lord will one day say when I knock on the pearly gates after not going to church since my last day of Sunday School, “Who the fook is that guy?” If you don’t know, you better ask somebody in Japan. Asakura is like the Ohtani of MMA in Japan. He’s a Rizin world champion, and this isn’t the first time a Rizin champion came over and was considered for an immediate title shot. Before his debut, Manel Kape served as the backup for a Figueiredo title fight in 2020. Speaking of Manel Kape, he has a decision win over Kai Asakura in Rizin.  

Kai Asakura is the Ringer like Johnny Knoxville. “You scratched my CD!” He’s Shane Falco, a replacement player during the ‘87 NFL season. He’s Agent 47, a Hitman hired by the UFC to bring an end to Toja Cat’s reign. This will be Asakura’s UFC debut. His first time standing beneath the bright lights will be while fighting for a title. Not even Alex Pereira got an immediate title shot. So Asakura must be the bee’s knees, elbows, and wrists... right? I’ll put it like this: Like Ray Charles said during the moon landing, “I don’t see it.”   

I watched several Asakura fights, and nothing special stood out to me. He’s big for the division and has the aggression and power to beat anybody. He could even KO Pantoja, who tends to instigate firefights. But Juan Archuleta (Asakura’s most recent opponent) isn’t walking through that tunnel. Fighting Toja Cat in a UFC debut is like running the one hunnid meters before you can crawl. It's like playing on All-Madden after winning the Super Bowl on rookie. It’s like watching Dora the Explorer en Español, then moving to Madrid to teach Spanish. From what I’ve seen, Asakura is all striking, mostly boxing. He’s a solid counterpuncher, and his special move is the knee to the body. Asakura is 21-4 with thirteen TKO/KOs and three subs. Of those thirteen TKO/KOs, six were perpetuated by standing knees. Kai’s knees will be the x-factor against a guy like Toja Cat, who level changes constantly. The counter knee up the middle to defend takedowns will be Asakura’s key to victory.   

But other than an aggressive temperament, Asakura’s striking is fairly vanilla. His major malfunction is a lack of head movement. My man gets into extended exchanges in the pocket and never moves his head off the centerline. Against Archuleta, Archie kept Asakura’s head nodding like a Yes Man, beating Asakura down the middle with straight punches. But the biggest question about Asakura is his ground game. I haven’t seen him off his back. So far, nobody has been able to grapple with Toja Cat for twenty-five minutes. Asakura has to end this fight on the feet. The play for him is a TKO/KO. I think a decision will favor Toja’s ground game.   

If you don’t know who Toja Cat is, you better ask the Brandons, Moreno, and Royval. Those two heathens are a combined 0-5 against Pantoja. “Some things are better left dead.” Toja Cat has that Pet Sematary dog in him. Chances are, this guy out-dogged your favorite dog. After every fourth round, you think Toja is done. In the fifth round, Toja turns into Tom Brady down four with a minute and a half left. No matter how much damage he takes and how gassed he looks, Toja Cat finds a way to stay alive like the Bee Gees. Hit that “Staying Alive!” This guy has extra lives like he has a roll of quarters and a line behind him all the way to the Skee-Ball machines. He’s got extra lives like up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, b, a, select, start. Somehow, some way, Toja Cat finds ways to win. He’s clutch like Ray Allen in the finals. He’s Freddy Freeman with the bases loaded. 

Toja Cat is always an early finishing threat. He comes out at the bell on his Denzel shit, A Man on Fire. He comes out on fire like Paul Walker. When it comes to dogfights, Pantjoa is Maverick. Everyone else is Goose. Toja is a Mike D’Antoni fast break striker, especially in the opening round. He wants to force you against the cage with pressure and get you to the mat ASAP. Once he gets you down, he takes your back. He’s a backpacker like Talib Kweli. Unlike many Jiu-Jitsu specialists, Toja Cat has excellent takedowns. His timing and ability to draw you forward with aggressive combinations lead you right into his level changes even when you know they’re coming. Toja can bang with Askaura, but he will win this fight on the mat. Asakura has yet to be submitted in his career. But he has been finished by TKO/KO three times. Toja Cat can do both.   

Toja will be the (-270) favorite, and Asakura will be the (+220) live dog. Toja can get got on his feet. The Brandons each nearly finished Toja. Also, Toja fades late in fights. But he always seems to dig deep and score one big takedown late that secures the dub. Toja is very beatable, and Asakura is playing with house money. His right hand, especially when he uses it as a counter, can put Toja away. But can he stay on his feet? And, more importantly, can he get back to his feet? I don’t know. The play for Asakura is a TKO/KO. There’s a ton of value in a Toja decision, but I like Toja by submission. 

The main event winning streak now sits at four after Petr Yan once again did Petr Yan shit. I’m eyeing a six-fight dub streak going into 2025... but this one may be a trap pick. Kai Asakura is the ultimate unknown. Is he ready for this shit? He could be. But ain’t no way I’m picking against the dog’s dog. Alexandre Pantoja via rear-naked choke, round three. "Focus on the good times. Isn’t that what you said?” Fade to black.  

Props

Pantoja: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+165) Dec (+275) 

Asakura: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2800) Dec (+800)

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-400) vs. Ian Garry (+300)

Shavkat: DK: $9.2k | Garry: DK: $7k

“Life’s a risk, carnal.” You don’t gotta tell Shavkat. This fight is all risk and no reward for him. He was already on the poster, challenging Belal for the belt. He could just sit out and wait for his title shot. Instead, he’s loading up the True Temper eleven-hundred-pound max capacity wheelbarrow with his giant Randy Marsh stones and putting his guaranteed title shot on the line against a fellow undefeated fighter. For the first time in his career, Ian Garry will be in a fight. This is a five-round co-main event, and all the questions about Ian Garry will finally be answered. There’s no way this fight won’t be a banger. The first banger of Garry’s career.   

The Head Fury In Charge is back. Shavkat has always sounded like the name of a Fury to me. As in, dude’s dressed in cat costumes and politicking at the local Ramada Inn conference room. Shavkat and Toja Cat should link up and become a power couple. The Major League Fury guild uses the image of Shavkat’s choke against Geoff Neal as their league’s logo. Shavkat is the Jerry West of that bih. That choke was on some night at the improv type-shit. Shavkat freestyled that choke off the top of the dome like Eminem at the Rap Olympics. That was the most offensive choke in UFC history. That shit looked illegal. I thought Shavkat would get canceled after he did Geoff Neal like that.   

Shavkat is a submission specialist with deadly stand-up. If he can’t beat you on the feet, he can beat you on the mat. This guy has more chokes than every team playing the Chiefs. Five of his six UFC finishes came via rear-naked or guillotine chokes. This guy has variations of your favorite chokes that you’ve never seen before. His clearest path to victory will be pushing Garry against the cage and dragging him to the mat. We haven’t seen Garry on his back. Only Mr. Machado has. Woof! Of Shavkat’s eighteen career dubs, ten came by submission and eight by TKO/KO. There’s no doubt he can cause Garry problems on the feet, but why fight Garry to his strengths? 

But don’t get it fooked up like McGregor’s career, Shavkat will test Garry’s chin. This is the best way to describe Shavkat’s stand-up: “He’s slippery. Like trying to fish a piece of eggshell out of a bowl. Weird reference. But it’s like every time you try to touch him, he just slides out of the way just enough to make you miss.” You know you’ve reached a new level of pretentiousness when you’re quoting yourself, homies. Yo! Hit that South Park “Smug Alert!” Shavkat is hittable but has just enough wrinkles to make your mammy yell at you to go change before church. He has subtle slip-and-rips and is deadly with knees and elbows in the clinch. The key for Shavkat will be getting inside Garry’s reach and making this a fight in a Port-O-John in the clinch and in the pocket.  

Ian Garry takes home nothing but ugly wins. Ian Garry takes home 3’s. He jumps on ugly decision grenades. He has to brown bag his dubs. He makes his dubs take the walk of shame. Ian Garry’s wins make Li Jingliang look like Carlos Ulberg. Yo! Quit playing and hit that 50 Cent “Many Men!” Many men. Many, many, many men. Wish death upon Ian Garry. He don’t pray no more. Don’t take another man’s name no more. Have mercy on him.  

My man, Ian Garry, is the MMA Drake. They all wanna see him take an L. But so far, Garry has yet to make a wrong turn, take the wrong exit, and stumble into a real fight. He has managed to use his range to make tepid kickboxing matches. Garry’s special power is making fights boring. And that ain’t a diss track. You play to win the fight. And you can’t argue with 15-0. 

But Garry is about to find himself on the wrong side of the tracks where shoes hang by their laces from telephone wires, every corner has a liquor store, and wearing certain colors will get you got real quick for the first time in his career. Garry has been playing it safe like a locksmith. Garry hasn’t even been in the equivalent of a heated argument inside the Octagon. I saw more heated exchanges at the dinner table last Thursday than in any Ian Garry fight.  

That’s because he keeps his enemies close and his opponents at jab’s length. Garry leaves you sitting between Billy Mayes and the Sham Wow guy on a plane filled with dead celebrities – in striking purgatory. Hold up. I don’t think the Sham Wow guy is dead, buddy. I ain’t your buddy guy! Garry keeps you at the end of long punches and kicks and makes it nearly impossible to get off combinations. You have to rely on one big shot to hurt Garry. Ian Garry is a pace car, and you gotta be Lightning Mc-Fookin-Queen and lap that MF. You can’t let Garry dictate the pace, or you’ll find yourself on the wrong end of a decision with the crowd booing and hucking tomatoes at you.   

Garry is a 1s and 1-2s striker. He rarely extends combinations but averages over five SLpM compared to Shavkat’s just over four. Garry has landed over one hundred significant strikes twice. Garry will be a valuable Fantasy option if he can keep the fight standing with twenty-five minutes to rack up striking stats. He rocks a sixty-noine percent takedown defense, while Shavkat averages a takedown and a half per fifteen minutes. Shavkat should turn this into a striker vs. grappler matchup.  

Shavkat will be the massive (-420) favorite, and you already know I love that number. Garry will be the (+315) mangy-ass dog. Can he win this fight? Yeah. Shavkat took a lot of punishment on the feet against Geoff Neal, and Garry’s reach will cause him problems. But I think the ground game will be the difference. The play for Garry is a decision. He’ll have to outpoint Shavkat from range. The play for Shavkat is a submission. A Shavkat fight has never gone the distance. Shavkat Rakhmonov via Geoff Neal Choke, round three. On wax. 

Props

Shavkat: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+180) Dec (+275) 

Garry: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+3000) Dec (+650)

Winner: Shavkat Rakhmonov | Method: Geoff Neal Choke Rd.3

Ciryl Gane (-370) vs. Alexander Volkov (+285)

Gane: DK: $9k | Volkov: DK:$7.2k

As long as Ciryl Gane isn’t fighting for the title, he’s unstoppable. It’s hard to imagine how a guy with his skills and physical attributes isn’t the champ. I will never forget the Gane imposter that showed up in his steed to face Bones Jones. Gane looked like the dude playing the dude disguised as another dude.  

“Or are you the dude who has no idea what dude he is and claims to know what dude he is?”  

“I know what dude I am!”   

Gane looked like THE dude in his most recent bout against Sergei Spivak. He beat the devil out of Spivak like Bob Ross’s paintbrush. Picture me picking Sergey Spivak to beat Ciryl Gane like it’s something to do... Yeah, I picked Serghei Spivak to beat Ciryl Gane. Sativa is a helluva an herb. I’ve always thought of Gane as medium-well Tom Aspinall. The two fighters have nearly identical skill sets and move like they belong in the middleweight division. Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane would be like Van Damme fighting himself in Double Impact. 

Please excuse me while I put my head between my legs and huff my own flatulence once again and quote myself: “Gane is a Frankenstein of sorts, freakishly sewn together with parts and pieces salvaged from the recycling bins found in every combat sports discipline and paraded around the Octagon like a Leatherface victim fashion show.” This guy combines multiple disciplines on the feet: traditional kickboxing with a sprinkle of Taekwondo and boxing. His hands are faster than Snoop Dogg rolling a Backwood. He has those penitentiary contraband hands: Sst, sst, sst! You die before you reach the infirmary. On the feet, Ciryl Gane is, alongside Aspinall and Bones, one the best strikers in the heavy divisions.   

But Gane has a major malfunction. He’s all brawn and no brains like a 90s movie bully who’s dating the baddest cheerleader. He lost his first title shot against Ngannou because he decided, in the fifth round, to go for a heel hook after gaining the top position instead of riding out the clock to the belt. Then he came out against Bones Jones and walked right into a takedown in the opening minute and immediately got his neck snatched. This guy has that Matt Eberflus fight IQ, just watching the clock tick, tick, tick...   

The key for Gane against Alexander Volkov will be the same as the first time the two fought. Gane used his speed to attack Volkov from the outside and get out of the pocket before Volkov could counter. Gane’s jab from both stances dominated the night and allowed Gane to walk away with a fairly uneventful dub. Gane is 12-2 with six TKO/KOs and three subs. Both fighters average over five SLpM and landed over one hundred significant strikes in their first matchup. But that fight was a five-round main event. This one will be three rounds.   

Yo! Hit that 50 Cent “In Da Club!” When it comes to Alexander Volkov, let the haters hate and watch the dubs pile up! My man is on a four-fight dub streak and five of his last six. His only two losses in his previous noine scraps came to Aspinall and Gane. It’s easy to overlook Volkov because he looks like the kid who had to play goalie in every sport when he was growing up. I’m talking soccer, hockey, water polo, lacrosse, and shinty. Homie is built like Tiny from House of 1000 Corpses and just lumbers around the cage with his arms outstretched in front of him. Volkov looks like the type to take a metal detector to the beach.   

But don’t let that fool you. This guy is Volk the Impaler. He’ll skewer you like kabobs with jabs and teeps. Yo! Hit that Outkast “Skew it on the Bar-B!” Volk is one of the few big men you will see who is crafty with teep kicks and using them to maintain range and thwart opponents' attacks. He has multiple TKOs via internal bleeding. He’ll leave you with bloody stools, and I ain’t talking about bar fights. The Five-Toe Death Kick to the liver is Volk’s special move. He’ll have you shitting in Ziploc bags real quick. Call that kick the bunion enema. 

Imagine Drago: He made me a believer after dominating Pavlovich in his most recent bout. Volkov used his range to stifle all of Pavlovich’s wild haymakers. But Drago struggled against Gane’s speed in the first match. He wasn’t fast enough to deal with Gane’s in/out movement and got outpointed for much of the twenty-five minutes. Drago will have to take more chances this time and use the cage to cut off Gane’s lateral movement to trap him where Volk can get off combinations.   

Gane will be the (-360) favorite, and Volkov will be the (+280) live dog. Volk is on a roll and has looked more dangerous than ever. This isn’t a “gimme” for Gane. Fantasy-wise, Volk will be a solid middle/low tier roster option as this is guaranteed to stay on the feet for the duration, allowing Volk to land solid significant strikes even in a loss. I think the play for both fighters is a decision. They showed mutual respect for each other’s power in the first fight, and I don’t see that changing. But I have to ride with speed. Ciryl Gane via decision. Bust out the peppermint Yankee candles and put it on wax.   

Props

Gane: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1100) Dec (-150) 

Volkov: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+2800) Dec (+450)

Winner: Ciryl Gane | Method: Decision

Bryce Mitchell (-850) vs. Kron Gracie (+550)

Mitchell: DK: $9.5k | Gracie: DK: $6.7k

Good on the UFC for giving Bryce Mitchell the only man in the world who can’t possibly knock him out after what Josh Emmett did to him almost a year ago. Mitchell was asleep longer than the fight lasted. Homie woke up and hit the snooze button and was late to his own wake. Mitchell said, “I can sleep when I’m dea—.” Flatline. My man's family was in the stands fighting over who gets to inherit his rhyme book and camo shorts. Because when Bryce puts on the camo shorts, you can’t see him like the predator in the trees. The only hint of his existence is a slight refraction of light against the background. But Josh Emmett saw him. Touche. Rewatching that fight was like going on Rotten.com back in the day and watching cartel execution videos. Emmett knocked the farmer’s tan off of Bryce. But that’s 2023 shit, and we’re on the brink of 2025. 

Yo! Hit that Slim Thug “Thug from around the way!” There once was a thug from a, thug from a, thug from around the way. Bryce Mitchell ain’t a striker. But he’s still an ass-kicker. Don’t get it twisted like Mobb Deep. Mitchell’s ground game is as good as his striking is bad. Dude is an elite grappler and even landed a takedown against Topuria. One takedown; that’s it? That’s like hitting one homerun against Nolan Ryan. Who gives a fook if you struck out noinety-noine times? When Mitchell gets you down, they need the jaws of life to pry you out like Big Pun in the hotel room when he died. Bryce Mitchell’s wrestling with Kron Gracie’s submission would be unstoppable. From the top position, Mitchell is Jim “Hacksaw” Duggan; he beats people up. Mitchell is ass whoopin’ over position. 

But will he want to test Gracie’s guard? The best way to defeat a dangerous guard is with heavy ground and pound. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mitchell comes out shooting and takes the fight exactly where Kron wants it. If the fight stays standing, it will look like Larry Johnson and Alonzo Mourning squaring up in the Garden with Jeff Van Gundy clinging to a leg. I saw better striking during the Malice in the Palace. But if it does, Mitchell will have a massive advantage. Even as weak as his striking is, he still has sneaky good kicks and once even dropped Edson Barboza. With his bare hands.   

Kron’s shadow would be a (-800) favorite against him in a kickboxing match. Kron’s shadow via TKO, round one. Kron couldn’t strike if he was a Teamster. He strikes like a gutter ball. You have to bust out the bumper lanes for Kron’s striking. Kron Gracie has the worst striking since Royce Gracie. His hands bounce off you and stick to him. Kron has entry-level striking; no experience required. His hands have CA Cash Redemption 5¢ printed on them. Recyclable hands. His only moves on UFC 5 are basic actions. Salvation Army and Goodwill won’t even accept Kron’s hands. “Stop! He’s already dead!” Okay, okay. You get it. Kron might be the worst striker to ever step foot in the Octagon. 

But he’s a Gracie. The UFC's first family. They’re like the Sopranos of this shit. Kron is a Jiu-Jitsu Merlin. If he gets you to the mat, it’s a wrap. But that’s a big if. The problem with Kron’s grappling is that he has Mackenzie Dern takedowns. His best takedown is pulling guard. If he can’t pull guard, he’s assed-out like Tyson backstage. He ain’t beating you in a kickboxing match. Yes, you! He’s one hunnid percent dependent on getting the fight to the mat. If he can, he’ll tie you in a double Windsor, synch you up, and rock you to the Cheesecake Factory with a polo and Doc Martins. He’ll tie you in knots like the bungee cords on the Marsh’s car when they go Californiway in search of the internet.   

This is the first time I’m stumped on a key to victory. Kron can’t win on the feet, and I don’t think he can submit Bryce Mitchell. I don’t think Kron will have to pull guard because Mitchell will have no worries shooting on him and getting to work from the top. I guess Kron just has to go straight Jitz and never stop sub-hunting. He has to throw up Hail Marys from his guard and hope to catch Mitchell slippin’.   

The trickiest part of this fight is deciding whether Bryce finishes Kron or if it goes the distance. Kron’s special move is being able to take an ass-whoopin’. Cub Swanson and Charles Jourdain pieced Kron up for fifteen minutes, but Kron kept coming forward for more. He’s a glutton for punishment. I could see him surviving Mitchell’s striking or top control until the final bell. Fantasy-wise, without a Mitchell finish, I’d stay away from both guys. This has the feel of one of those oddly paced ugly fights. Mitchell is the (-700) favorite, and Kron is the (+475) dog without a forever home. Bryce Mitchell via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Mitchell: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+400) Dec (-200)  

Gracie: TKO/KO (+3500) Sub (+1200) Dec (+1100)

Winner: Bryce Mitchell | Method: Decision

Nate Landwehr (-140) vs. Doo Ho Choi (+120)

Landwehr: DK: $8.4k | Choi: DK: $7.8k

Yo! Hit that CCR “Fortunate Son!” It ain’t Nate! It ain’t Nate! Oh, no! Nate ain’t no fortunate son! This fight is on the main card for one reason: Nate Landwehr, aka San Diego’s adopted son. Nate is a San Diego first ballot Hall of Famer, inducted alongside California burritos and flip flops. His bust sits between Ron Burgundy and Bill Walton. Fook the money, this guy is one for the show, and two for the show. Nizzy Nate steps into the cage like an unofficial member of UGK, his diamond crusted mouthpiece shining like a disco ball. Nate fights like he’s on that Jack D, no Diddy. I’m talkin’ bout that Tennessee sour mash hard shit. Nate is out there handing out barrell aged ass-whoopin’s. Special reserved, aged one hunnid years ass-whoopin's. Moonshine ass-whoopin's. The type that make you go blind for fifteen minutes after one sip.  

If you didn’t know, Nate Landwehr is one of my favorite current fighters. He stole the show in my hometown when he fought David Onama in the co-main event at the Sports Arena. My man plays hard to get with the dub. He doesn’t win the dub; the dub wins him. If it’s a boring dub, Nate doesn’t want it. He wants fancy dubs. Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous dubs. MTV Cribs dubs. This MF wasn’t born; he was hatched. He's cold-blooded. Nate is a slick striker with equally slick grappling. Nate’s grappling may be his most underrated attribute. His nonchalant flow on the feet allows him to blend his striking and wrestling seamlessly. Nate is a natural born ass-kicker, handing out made in the USA beat downs.   

 Nate does the most damage on the feet within the clinch. Fook the JC Penny electric carving knife; Nate will carve you up with knees and elbows like a Jenny-O. Then take you down if he so fancies. Nate has quick hands and switches stances, giving the opponent different looks. But Nate has a major malfunction: his chin. Two of his three UFC losses came early in the first round. He’s the only guy to lose to Herbert Burns. If you’re gonna get Nate, you gotta get him early. Nate’s chin bought an aluminum boat and Googled tides and currents of the bay where the body was found; it’s suspect. He has that Humpty Dumpty chin. His chin has hairline fractures. In almost every fight, his legs get shaky like a chain link fence. 

Nate is 18-5 with noine TKO/KOs and two subs, including 5-3 in the UFC. Three of his last four dubs were finishes, and he averages nearly six and a half SLpM to Doo Ho Choi’s four and a half. This will be a high-output fight for both fighters.   

His name might be Doo Ho, but you ain’t gonna do him like one. Doo Ho Choi has been training with Baxter Stockman and went from the Superboy to the Super Duperboy. My man looks like Baby Fark McGee Zax. He looks like he leaves doobies and brownies for Santa Claus. Doo Ho looks like he still wears light-up shoes and goes to bed when the streetlights come on. Homie doesn’t get carded at the McDonalds Play Place. But although he might look like a boy, he hands out adult ass-whoopin's. He’s the MMA Childish Gambino. And he’ll crack your ass like the Great Bambino. He will have your mammy calling out sick for you the next day real quick. 

Doo Ho Choi is coming in off his first dub in eight years. After three straight L’s, Choi went to sixth-grade camp for four years and wasn’t seen until last year. When he returned, he fought the old man with the shovel in Home Alone, Kyle Nelson, to a draw and TKO’d Bill Algeo back in July. Choi still has dangerous boxing and non-dangerous grappling. Choi’s major malfunction is his wrestling/grappling. He has first-period P.E. wrestling and once got pinned by the captain of the debate team. But on the feet, his hands are still quicker than the first time you rounded second base. And he has that Nintendo Power Glove power in his right hand. Both fighters have massive defensive deficiencies on the feet. This will likely turn into a firefight real quick. Choi has the one-punch power advantage over Nate, while Nate usually finishes fights due to accumulative damage.   

Nate will be the (-135) favorite, and Choi will be the (+115) live-ass dog. This one could come down to who lands the big shot first. If it goes the distance, both fighters will have solid striking totals, likely just below the one-hundred mark. I think the play for Choi is a TKO/KO, and the play for Nate is a decision. Nate can finish Choi on the feet or the mat, but I see Nate grinding Choi down over three rounds. You already know I came here to pop shit and pick Nate Landwehr. And I’m all out of shit to pop this week, pawtnas. Nate Landwehr via decision. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Landwehr TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+500) Dec (+250)  

Choi: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+700) Dec (+550)

Winner: Nate Landwehr | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Doo Ho Choi ($7.8k): Doo Ho ain’t one. There’s a ton of value in a Doo Ho Choi early finish. Two of Nate Landwehr’s three UFC losses came inside the first five minutes. Landwehr is hittable and invites nothing but firefights. RSVP type-shit. Nate will have a clear advantage on the mat, but that’s exactly why I don’t think he will take it there. Nate wants to stand and bang and earn the adoration of the crowd. Earning a dub is second on Nate’s fight objectives. Choi still has good hand speed and sneaky power, and this fight will be filled with 50/50-coin flip exchanges. This could be the fight of the night on the main card, and Choi will have a good shot at not only finishing Nate but finishing Nate early. 

Kai Asakura ($7.4k): This guy is the big unknown on the card. Nobody knows what to expect from a guy making his UFC debut in a title fight. But this guy is aggressive and has serious power. Also, he has the perfect weapon forged specifically to defeat Alexandre Pantoja, the standing knee. Asakura throws a standing knee like most fighters throw round kicks. He hides them behind his hands and can use them to defend level changes. Toja Cat will have to be very careful not to run into one of Asakura’s knees while level changing. Barring Toja dominating the fight completely on the mat, Asakura will have plenty of time to land significant strikes. The upside for Asakura is a TKO/KO finish. 

Ian Garry ($7k): Ian Garry will double as the best low-tier option on the card. The Clearance Rack is looking bare this week. Garry will be the overall better striker against Shavkat. I’m not so sure Shavkat can get Garry down to the mat consistently over twenty-five minutes. There will be plenty of time for Garry to operate on the feet. And although Garry tends to play it safe and doesn’t commit to combinations, he’s still a high-output striker, averaging five and a half SLpM. If Shavkat can’t keep Garry on the mat, Garry can dominate the stand-up from the outside, picking his shots wisely while keeping Shavkat in no-man's land. I would even consider Garry as a roster option over many of the $8k options. 

$6k Bathroom Clearance Rack

Kron Gracie ($6.7): If you can’t afford Ian Garry at $7k, Kron is your best option. I think Bryce Mitchell will try to prove his dominance on the mat and try to ground and pound his way to victory from the top position. And operating from his guard is exactly where Kron wants to be. As long as Mitchell insists on taking down Kron, Kron will have a shot at scoring a submission. After all, Kron is still a Gracie. But if Mitchell plays it smart and keeps the fight standing, you might as well just wipe your ass with your last $6.7k. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Vicente Luque (+135): Vicente Luque will be the striker in his striker vs. wrestler matchup against Themba Gorimbo. Luque should dominate the stand-up with leg kicks and better boxing. But Luque also has a special weapon when facing wrestlers/grapplers. He’s a D’arce/Anaconda specialist. Luque can snatch Gorimbo’s neck at any time, as Gorimbo will undoubtedly be shooting takedowns all night. Luque’s takedown defense isn’t very good; he averages only sixty-two percent. But he’s a serious submission threat. He has eight career subs, and seven are D’arce/Anaconda/guillotines, all of which can be used to defend level changes. 

Doo Ho Choi (+120): Choi vs. Landwehr will come down to who lands the big shot first. If you’re looking to drop some scratch on Choi, consider the under one-and-a-half-rounds prop. The longer the fight goes, the more likely it will be that Nate will take over in the clinch and on the mat, grinding down Choi. Choi’s best shot is testing Nate’s suspect chin early. 

Ian Garry (+300): I may not have had the Randy Marsh stones to straight-up pick Ian Garry to win this fight, but I definitely have a Hamilton with his name on it. The odds for this one are way off. This is a toss-up in my book. Garry is the better striker, and I’m not sure I can see Shavkat grinding out Garry on the mat round after round. I think the fight will come down to the stand-up, and Garry’s ability to use his range will be the difference. Geoff Neal had a lot of success on the feet against Shavkat, and Garry dominated Neal. I know, I know, MMA math doesn’t add up. Except sometimes it does. If Neal gave Shavkat problems on the feet, Garry most definitely will too.   

Twenty Twen-Twen Parlay: Just for shits and chuckles, if you take a three-fight parlay with these dogs, a twenty-dollar bet will return three hunnid eighty-seven dollars.  

Pick ‘Em

Dominick Reyes (-350) vs. Anthony Smith (+275)  

Winner: Dominick Reyes 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Vicente Luque (+135) vs. Themba Gorimbo (-155) 

Winner: Vicente Luque 

Method: Anaconda Choke Rd.2 

Movsar Evloev (-280) vs. Aljamain Sterling (+230)  

Winner: Movsar Evloev 

Method: Decision 

Randy Brown (+190) vs. Bryan Battle (-230) 

Winner: Bryan Battle 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Chris Weidman (-110) vs. Eryk Anders (-110) 

Winner: Chris Weidman 

Method: Decision 

Cody Durden (+125) vs. Joshua Van (-150) 

Winner: Joshua Van 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Michael Chiesa (-105) vs. Max Griffin (-115) 

Winner: Max Griffin 

Method: Decision 

Clay Guida (+725) vs. Chase Hooper (-1300) 

Winner: Chase Hooper 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-600) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+425) 

Winner: Kennedy Nzechukwu 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.