Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Islam Makhachev (-380) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (+290)

Makhachev: DK: $9.4k | Tsarukyan: DK:$6.8k

This is Adriano Martins's favorite time of year. That’s Doc Martins to you after he received an honorary degree from Fight University for being the only man to beat Islam Makhachev. There isn’t a job on earth that Martins isn’t qualified for with just three words, “KO’d Islam Makhachev,” written on his Indeed cover letter. It's back to the unemployment line for all other applicants as soon as Doc Martins enters the lobby. 

“What medical school did you attend, Mr. Martins?” 

“I watched a video about a rash I had once on Web MD.” 

“Uh huh. And how long have you been performing coronary revascularization procedures?” 

“Um, I used to play Operation. I could even remove the Charlie Horse without tripping the buzzer.” 

“Oooh-kay. It says here you knocked out Islam Makhachev...”  

“Yes, Sir. In about noinety seconds.” 

“Excellent. When can you start?” 

If you KO’d Islam Makhachev in a dream, you better wake up and apologize. Makhachev was born on a Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl year during an earthquake while Halley’s comet was in the inner solar system and visible to the naked eye. Since his only loss in 2015, Makhachev has been evolving like zombies that can swim. You can’t just post up like AB in the shallow end and wait them out anymore. Makhachev used to play Billy Beane Moneyball, emphasizing the least sexy aspects of grappling, like maintaining top control. Islam focused on playing small ball, standing on the feet long enough to get a takedown and ride out rounds from the top position. But recently, he went full Sammy and Mark in the summer of ‘98. Chicks dig the KO.   

There is no better all-around, all-purpose grappler in the game than Islam Makhachev. No, not even Chimaev. There isn’t a man in the lightweight division that Makhachev can’t out-grapple. That includes Arman Tsarukyan, whom Makhachev took down four times and accumulated six minutes of control time in their first meeting in 2019. But even a layman can take one look at Makhachev’s beard and ears with the airbags deployed and know he’s a bad mother-shut-your-mouf on the mat. It’s Makhachev’s striking that has received a software update.   

Makhachev has been kicking so much ass, his feet stink. Kicking so much ass, his toenails are painted brown. Kicking so much ass, he tracks muddy footprints all over the house. Makhachev won’t wow you with fancy footwork and mind-bending combinations. Instead, Makhachev blends in perfectly with his environment—nothing but a slight refraction of light like the predator in the trees—and snipes you from a bell tower a mile away. All you will see is a little orange starburst off in the distance, then fade to black. His left hand and left leg are calibrated precisely to the specifications of your ass, taking into account the wind speed, elevation, and curvature of the earth. This muhf**ker Snipes you like Wesley.   

There isn’t a place on Earth or anywhere in the Milky Way where Makhachev can’t beat Arman Tsarukyan. Sources? Well, he already beat Tsarukyan. And that ain’t a Russian talking point. Just facts. But that doesn’t mean Tsarukyan doesn’t pose the biggest threat to Islam’s crown. Arman more than handled his own on the mat in the first meeting, and Islam never had him in real danger. I see Makhachev making a statement on the feet and resorting to his wrestling only if he runs into problems. Which I don’t think he will. He is the better striker and is developing into a better finisher. He KO’d Volkanovski, then out-struck Dustin Poirier on his way to a fourth-round submission. But Poirier exposed a kink in Makhachev’s armor – the body. Poirier started to climb back into the fight when he kept his hands low to defend takedowns while attacking the body with extended combinations. Tsarukyan’s best weapon on the feet is his heavy round kicks... to the body.   

Yo! Hit that Yelawolf “Trunk Muzik!” Trunk Muzik Returns when Arman Tsarukyan steps into the Octagon. Once Tsarukyan gets you to the mat, he treats you like a mafia hit, stuffing you inside a suitcase like a grotesque carry-on. Like he’s stuffing you in the trunk of a Ford Tracer. That’s that Trunk Muzik. You can hear Arman’s trunk knocking from five blocks away. Tsarukyan likes his meat well done; he slow cooks you on the mat like Abuela’s albondigas in the Betty Crocker crockpot. This MF will have you falling off the bone in ten minutes or less on some two-a.m. infomercial type-shit. Arman Tsarukyan can wrestle/grapple his ass off until he’s walking around looking like Sarah Jessica Parker on her way to yoga. This guy’s ground game is the perfect mix of position, control, and ground and pound. He can peel your face off with elbows or choke you like a pair of David Carradine fishnets. Choose Your Own Adventure.  

But Arman will have to win this fight on the feet. And the key to his victory will be his takedown defense. The best takedown defense I have ever seen was BJ Penn’s. BJ’s balance on one leg defied the laws of physics. Arman’s takedown defense is a close second. Tsarukyan has takedown defense like he’s wearing an anti-gravity birthday suit. He will go straight Showgirls on your ass and do the standing splits like he’s working the pole at Amateur Night. Homie does the Van Damme splits vertically to defend a single leg. Mateusz Gamrot was able to land six takedowns against Tsarukyan but was never really able to establish the top position. Arman is one of the toughest fighters in the game to hold down. Can’t Nobody Hold Him Down, oh no. Arman’s got to keep on movin’.  

Tsarukyan’s right side of his body was dipped in the River Styx. His right round kick and overhand can turn wives into widows. He has slightly better one-punch KO power than Makhachev, but Makhachev is more technical. Never forget when Joaquim Silva landed a left hook and had Tsarukyan in the passenger seat holding onto the “Oh, shit!” handles for dear life. Arman can get got on the feet. He makes up for technical deficiencies and an inability to throw combinations with pure aggression. Arman wants to overwhelm you on the feet, close the distance, and level change. I’m not sure where Tsarukyan can win this fight other than landing one big fight-changing shot and capitalizing.   

The numbers: Tsarukyan will be the higher output striker, averaging just over three and a half SLpM compared to Makhachev’s just over two and a half. Both fighters average just over three takedowns per fifteen minutes, but Makhachev rocks a noinety percent takedown defense compared to Arman’s seventy-five percent. Makhachev has only given up two career takedowns, one to Thiago Moises, and the other to Arman Tsarukyan. 

The play for Arman Tsarukyan is a TKO/KO. I just don’t see any way how a decision would favor him. The play for Makhachev is also a TKO/KO. Dude has been on fire on the feet lately, like he walked through Brentwood. Before the Volkanovski fight, I said a Makhachev head kick KO would happen sooner rather than later. I think it’s in play again. Makhachev is the massive (-415) favorite, and Tsarukyan is the (+315) mangy dog. Arman is really fookin’ good. He might be the second-best fighter in the division. But the gap between one and two is still Homer jumping the Springfield Gorge. 

I broke my 2025 New Year’s resolution of not losing any main events when Mackenzie Dern entered the Matrix on the mat and submitted Amanda Ribas last weekend. Overall, we had a solid night, but the main event losing streak now sits at two after dropping the final main event of 2024. I always worry about the ones that feel like a gimme. But gimme Islam Makhachev via head kick KO, round four. And give me an Adriano Martins call out on the mic after. Islam Makhachev vs. Adriano Martins 2. Put that shit on wax. 

Props

Makhachev TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+330) Dec (-120) 

Tsarukyan: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+2800) Dec (550)

Winner: Islam Makhachev | Method: Head Kick KO Rd.4

Merab Dvalishvili (+260) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-320)

Merab: DK: $7k | Umar: DK: $9.2k

The definition of insanity is fighting Merab Dvalishvili. He’s the human Groundhog’s Day. He’s relentless. He never stops doing anything out of fear of being called a quitter. Merab doesn’t sleep, not even a wink. He doesn’t blink. He doesn’t doze off. He doesn’t even nod to a beat. He doesn’t even close his fookin’ eyes when he sneezes. Yo! Hit that Eminem “Ringer!” Merab Dvalishvili is the ultimate ringer, like Johnny Knoxville. This guy used doubt as rocket fuel and flew to the fookin’ moon. Merab’s style is terminal cancer to strikers.   

“Is it bad, Doc?” 

“Yes. I’m afraid you only have twenty-four hours to live. But that’s not the bad news.” 

“WTF is the bad news?” 

“I couldn’t get hold of you yesterday.” 

Merab’s style is like taking a Xanax, a real downer. Nothing will take the wind out of a card’s sails like Merab doing Merab shit like he did in the Sphere against O’Malley. But don’t hate the player, hate the game. Hate O’Malley for not having an answer. Hate Petr Yan: Maybe if he hadn’t dropped the E from his name, it alone would have carried enough weight to beat Merab. Merab's special weapons are pace and cardio. His style is like the zombie level in Call of Duty. Every round, Merab multiplies until you’re fighting hordes of these f**kers by the end of the fight. What’s the square root of Merab?  

Merab’s style will never change. He’s still driving the 2001 Civic with a six-disc CD changer and   

Mexican blanket on the back seat that got him to the dance. You can’t get rid of him. He just hangs around like drones in New Jersey. Punches in bunches and relentless level changes. Merab will pick you up and carry you like you just exchanged vows. Homie could help the Greek god Atlas carry the weight of the world on his back. And he will strike and level change without taking a breath for a full twenty-five minutes. But he does have a weakness. 

Thetis held him by his wrists when she dipped him in the River Styx. He isn’t a very dangerous or technical striker. The constant threat of takedowns has allowed him to out-strike far better strikers like Yan and O’Malley. You can’t get into a rhythm when Merab level changes every time you throw a strike. Against Umar, Merab will have the more traditional striking, but Umar will have the unorthodox, diverse striking. But I think Merab won’t be able to stick to his usual script as devoutly as he usually does. I think Umar will be the better wrestler/grappler. 

Harold and Umar, aka Fumar, is back. They call him Fumar because he wants all the smoke like the lady in the old-school anti-smoking commercial who smokes through the trachea hole in her throat. If Merab is a cancer, Umar is Fenben and apricot seeds. Umar is walking chemo. For all the Merab haters, Umar is the savior prophesized in the MMA bible. Umar is the only man in the division who Merab can’t out-grapple. If there’s a prop bet for who scores the first takedown, my money is on Umar. Umar’s takedowns are far more diverse than Merab’s. Umar has a unique takedown setup. Most fighters level change off their rear power hand. Umar level changes off his lead hand jab. And when he gets hold of you, Umar chain wrestles, stringing together takedown combinations.   

And on the feet, Umar has the most unique special move in the game: The lead leg question mark kick. MF has more question marks than 9/11, more question marks than a Mario Bro’s level, more question marks than the Riddler’s suit. The only stupid question mark kick is the one you don’t throw. It’s a low kick feint, turned into a body or high kick all in one motion. Umar is far from a traditional kickboxer, and I still don’t know how his stand-up will fair against elite strikers. But you can’t prepare for Umar’s striking because there’s no one else like him. This fight will likely be won on the feet, and I give Umar a slight edge. 

Both fighters average just under four and a half SLpM, but Umar averages six takedowns per fifteen minutes to Merab’s four. Merab will step in rocking an eighty percent takedown defense while Umar has never been taken down in his life. For all his activity, Merab has never landed over one hundred significant strikes, and Umar hit a career-high with noinety-eight in his most recent five-rounder against Cory Sandhagen. 

Umar will be the (-330) favorite, and Merab will be the (+265) live dog. Don’t doubt Merab. Everybody has a plan until they get hit with Merab’s pace. The play for this one is a decision one way or another. I don’t see either guy getting finished. Merab can pull this off, but I said Umar would be the Champ on the WKO before his debut in 2021, and It’s Too Late to Turn Back Now. Yo! Hit that Cornelius Brothers and Sister Rose! Umar Nurmagomedov via decision. Put it on wax.     

Props

Merab Dvalishvili: TKO/KO (1200) Sub (+3000) Dec (+350) 

Umar Nurmagomedov: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+450) Dec (-135)

Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov | Method: Decision

Jiri Prochazka (+110) vs. Jamahal Hill (-130)

Jiri: DK: $8k | Hill: DK:$8.2k

This is a classic sibling rivalry scrap after the Champ, Alex Pereira, son’d both these guys. But there’s no shame in that. This is a crazy style matchup because Jiri’s style makes every fight he’s in a crazy style matchup. The only time I ever picked against Alex Pereira was before UFC 300 when he fought Jamahal Hill. I expected the world from Hill, and he handed me Needles, CA. I expected the performance Khalil Rountree delivered against Pereira from Jamahal Hill. I was Dead Wrong, like Biggie and Em. But this one right here is a fookin’ banger, and Jamahal Hill has an opportunity to go and TOTALLY REDEEM HIMSELF! 

Jiri Prochazka is elemental. And I ain’t talking Pixar movies. I’m talking Earth, Wind & Fire. Yo! Hit that “Boogie Wonderland!” Jiri is the MMA Encino man; he’s the MMA missing link. In a previous life, Jiri was the real-life Turok, hunting velociraptors in the jungle and megalodons in the sea like Captain Ahab and his white whale. Present-day Jiri trains with polar bears and has one of the most unique striking styles in the game. He’s the Inebriated Master. One second, you’ll think Jiri is geeking at a rave, and the next, he’s blasting you in the face with a spinning back elbow. Jiri’s attacks have no beginning and no end. His style uses a constant flow of energy to switch stances and extend combinations. Jiri uses movement to hypnotize opponents. They have no idea what Jiri will throw next because Jiri doesn’t know what he will throw next.  Jiri is a true flow-state striker who feels the next strike before he throws it. 

But Jiri’s movement often backfires. He frequently leaps or twirls right into danger. He doesn’t use a traditional hand guard and only uses footwork to avoid strikes. And Jiri’s biggest red flag has become his chin. I trust Amber Heard at a Mattress Firm more than Jiri’s chin. I trust Skip Bayless at Great Clips more than Jiri’s chin. In every fight, there is a moment in which Jiri turns into Van Damme in Kickboxer, dancing at the bar after a couple of shots of rice whiskey. High risk, high reward: That’s Jiri’s style. And so far, it has served him well. The only man he can’t beat is Alex Pereira. Against Jamahal Hill, Jiri’s footwork has to be on point. He has to keep his feet moving and his head off the centerline. He will be in extreme danger when standing flatfooted with his hands down in front of Jamahal.   

Jamahal Hill is a straight-up Street Fighter, no Capcom. Homie couldn’t be more street if he was asphalt, couldn't be more street if he was a manhole. Jamahal Hill’s style is raw, like E.coli. RAW, like Monday nights. Yo! Hit that Roy Jones Jr. “Ya’ll Must’ve Forgot!” It’s easy to forget how dangerous Jamahal Hill is after that Pereira left hook he ate at UFC 300. Pereira sent his ass to bed without dessert. The ending of that fight looked like an 80’s dad about to whoop his son’s ass inside of Macy’s with a sales associate (Herb Deran) trying to intervene. But not even Evan from the men’s shoe department could save Jamahal’s ass that night. Hill got caught Slippin’ like DMX, got caught slippin’ like a CEO. But all that is 2024 old shit. Don’t get it fooked up like Deion’s toes: Jamahal Hill remains Dr. Sleep.   

Both Hill’s hands carry anesthesia. While Hill’s left hand receives the crowd’s adulation on the red carpet, his right might be more dangerous. He uses his lead hand as an all-purpose Swiss Army knife. Jabs, lead hooks, check hooks: Hill uses his right hand as a true wingman for his power hand, jumping on grenades and clearing a path for his left hand to steal all the glory. Hill has natural power. He isn’t the most technical striker, but he doesn’t need to be. When he lands, men fall. Never forget: Jamahal Hill never lost his title. He fought Pereira after a year-long layoff after getting crossed up at the local Y while playing in a pick-up basketball game. 

But that brings me to Hill’s red flag: He has been looking like Charles Barkley in recent videos posted online. After dropping the Khalil Rountree fight just months ago, Hill will enter the cage coming off another injury. And the big question is, what type of shape will he be in? A three-round fight definitely plays in his favor. The key for Hill will be using his trademark aggression. He came out uncharacteristically passive against Pereira and allowed Pereira to march him down for the few minutes the fight lasted. He has to move forward and put Jiri on the defensive.   

The numbers: Hill is 12-2 with seven. TKO/KOs and Jiri is 30-5 with twenty-six TKO/KOS and three subs. Jamahal Hill averages a ridiculous seven SLpM to Jiri’s just under five and a half. Both fighters are high out-put combination strikers, and barring an early finish, this one should produce high striking stats for both fighters, much like Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov last weekend. This one will be close to a pick ‘em. Hill is the slight (-115) favorite, and Jiri is the (-105) live-ass dog. There will be value in a decision, but I think the play is a TKO/KO one way or the other. One of these guys will get got. I was the conductor of the Jamahal bandwagon before UFC 300, and I haven’t given up my position just yet. Jamahal Hill via TKO, round three. On wax.   

Props

Hill: TKO/KO (+175) Sub (+2000) Dec (+350) 

Prochazka: TKO/KO (+185) Sub (+1800) Dec (+550)

Winner: Jamahal Hill | Method: TKO Rd.3

Beneil Dariush (+170) vs.Renato Moicano (-200)

Dariush: DK: $7.5k | Moicano: DK: $8.7k

Yo! Hit that Sout Park “Bryan Boitano!” What would Money Moicano do? If he were here right now? He’d get knocked down, then choke you out; that’s what Money Moicano’d do! Money Moicano could have Elon Musk’s bank account, and he still couldn’t afford to lose. He can’t get approved for a loan to purchase an L. On the rare occasions Moicano does take an L, the Repo men confiscate that shit for failure to make payments. But Beneil Dariush will offer to co-sign a shiny new L for Moicano when the two enter into fisticuffs on Saturday night. This one right here is a Grappler’s Delight and another banger on a stacked card.   

Renato Moicano has turned into a sleeper. His career has gotten a second wind. This guy is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division. Moicano has IMF (International Monetary Fund) top control; he weighs on you like debt. Moicano gets on top of you and submits you with knowledge. Shoots a double leg: “The Federal Reserve is neither federal nor a reserve.” Advances to the full mount: The six entities that hold stock in the Fed include the Warburgs, Morgans (J.P.), Rothchilds, Rockefellers, Kuhn Loeb’s, and Goldman Sachs.” Locks in a rear-naked choke: “The Fed is a central bank like the Bank of England, and together they dominate the world market.” Gets his hand raised: “Invest in Bitcoin, a non-centralized currency that cannot be controlled by the globalists.” Moicano kicks ass for the people! Moicano didn’t have a single dub via TKO/KO until I pointed that out before the Jalin Turner fight. Now he has two in a row. Moicano is a submission Basquiat with throwback ground and pound. He looks to create damage before he starts sub-hunting. Lately, he hasn’t needed to choke anyone out because he has been able to dominate with strikes from the top position. But don’t get it twisted like Zig Zags; Moicano has more chokes than the CIA. All ten of his career submissions came via rear-naked choke.  

But can Moicano survive on the feet? Benny Dariush will have a massive power advantage on the feet. Moicano’s major malfunction is his hand speed. His hands are expired and all lumpy by the time they reach the target. His hands appreciate and yield a 10% return on investment by the time they reach the target. Moicano isn’t a complete TLC scrub on the feet, but there aren’t too many people in the division that he can out-strike.  

Beneil Dariush is limitless. He represents the abstract, the ethereal. He’s a grappling-free spirit. He's the MMA Jeff Goldblum. Benny Dariush out-grappled the guy who out-grappled Tsarukyan, Mateusz Gamrot. “Yeah, but Tsarukyan KO’d Dariush.” I know, I know. I’m just saying that Dariush has the most creative grappling you’ll see. He still wears Tony’s arm around his neck like a lucky rabbit’s foot. He makes wishes on Tony’s arm like a monkey’s paw. This Tony Ferguson hand keeps crushing my hard taco! Yo! Hit that Eminem “Underground!” This guy’s ground game is like he lives underground.   

Benny will tie you in knots that get tighter the more you struggle to get out of them. Simultaneously attacking a kneebar and armbar is diabolical work. Benny will use the crucifix position to defend takedowns. Most people are taught to color between the lines, but Benny blurs the lines and colors the whole page, the table, and the fookin’ wall. Inverted guard, rubber guard, butterfly guard; Benny flows between guards and makes it nearly impossible to control him while avoiding submissions and reversals. 

On the feet, Benny has one weapon: A twelve-year-old Andy Reed Punt, Pass, and Kick overhand left. His left hand left Rogan, Anik, and DC in shambles after he dropped it on Drakkar Klose. Benny looks down at the mat and wings left hands from the fringe of the pocket. If he lands, he can sleep anyone. But Benny’s problem is setting it up. He doesn’t have technical, traditional, combination striking. He’s a puncher, not a boxer, a kicker, not a kickboxer. But he will have the advantage on the feet against Moicano.   

The numbers: Moicano is 20-5 with two TKO/KOs and ten subs, and Benny is 22-6 with five TKO/KOs and eight subs. Moicano will be the higher output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM compared to Benny’s just over three and a half. But Moicano’s output relies more on ground and pound. Both fighters average just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Benny rocks an eighty percent takedown defense compared to Moicano’s seventy-two. Moicano will be the (-210) favorite, and Benny will be the (+170) live-ass dog. This is a case of two fighters heading in opposite directions. Moicano is trending up, and Benny is down. Benny has lost two in a row, while Moicano has won four in a row and six of his last seven. But there isn’t anybody Benny can’t out-grapple other than the Champ. Although both are dangerous on the mat, I like playing this one for a decision.  I’ve just lost some faith in Benny. But fook it! Beneil Dariush via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Dariush: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+1000) Dec (+400)  

Moicano: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+400) Dec (+225)

Winner: Beneil Dariush | Method: Decision

Kevin Holland (-105) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-115)

Holland: DK: $8.3k | de Ridder: DK: $7.9k

I used to love seeing Kevin Holland’s name on a card. But now I just get depressed. I love me some Kevin Holland. But lately, he hasn’t been himself. There used to be a method to his madness, but now there isn’t any madness. At all. His style has become sterile. It’s starting to feel like what’s left of Kevin Holland is the crumbs at the bottom of the bag. He’s just the ring around the tub. Holland is in a slump. Right now, he couldn’t crack an ass at a Diddy party. And his last loss looked suspicious, like a composite sketch. Against Wonderboy, Holland quit on the stool like he was constipated, and in his most recent bout against Roman Dolidze... I don’t even know what to call how that fight ended. Holland has turned into a cover band version of himself. He’s Linkin Park with a new singer. Shit just ain’t the same.   

But Holland remains longer than the gas lines at Costco, longer than the line outside the gates of Hell that Jerry Jones will be waiting in. “Take a number, Jerry.” Holland swings like your neighborhood Spider-Man into the pocket and unloads grappling hooks for hands. His strikes look exaggerated, like Broadway special effects. Holland’s major malfunction is that he doesn’t always use his range well and frequently leaps into the pocket and right into takedowns/strikes. He used to overcome technical mistakes with aggression, but now, you can't trust him like Pete Carrol and second and goal. Reinier de Ridder represents Holland’s kryptonite: An elite grappler with solid takedowns. Holland will have to go for broke early on the feet while trying to utilize every inch of his reach outside the pocket.   

Reinier de Ridder’s special move is the Diddy Choke. It’s an inverted triangle set up from the bottom while in half guard. It looks like an entanglement when you get caught in it. It was the move Ennis Del Mar used on Jack Twist. De Ridder uses pictures of his opponents caught in the Diddy choke to blackmail and compromise them. So... he’s the MMA Epst—. Whoa, whoa, whoa! I ain’t saying shit. De Ridder will TAP you like military funerals. He’ll twenty-one-gun salute your ass. He’ll tap you like Morse Code. All while looking like an 80s movie Aspen Ski Lodge bully. De Ridder looks like Bryan Battle’s body double, but definitely not Battle’s striking double. 

On the feet, de Ridder is agoraphobic; he’s afraid of open spaces. Even Gerald Meerschaert had de Ridder looking wobbly like he was on the bunny slopes. I compare RDR’s striking to pitchers when they had to bat in the National League. He’s an automatic out. You pray he gets walked. You gotta pinch-hit for RDR on the feet. Don’t pitchers hit at practice? Doesn’t RDR strike at practice? The age-old question. RDR is a master within the clinch. If he ties you up, you’re gonna have a bad time. His style is pushing you against the cage and chipping away with knees and elbows while looking for trips.   

The only number you need to know is fifty-four percent - Holland’s takedown defense. RDR took Meerschaert down five times before submitting him in the third. And Meerschaert’s and Holland’s takedown defenses are comparable. De Ridder is the early slight (-110) favorite, and Holland is the (-105) live-ish dog. Holland can win this fight on the feet if he maintains pocket discipline and doesn’t overextend himself in the pocket. The play for Holland is a decision, surviving early and stuffing takedowns late. The play for de Ridder is a submission. Holland has been submitted three times in his career. Dammit! I’ve lost all faith in one of my favorite fighters. Reinier de Ridder via arm-triangle, round three. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Holland: TKO/KO (+185) Sub (+700) Dec (+550)  

de Ridder: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+330) Dec (+240)

Winner: Reinier de Ridder| Method: Arm-Triangle Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Reinier de Ridder ($7.9k): De Ridder’s was built to beat Kevin Holland. If the fight stays standing, de Ridder will be in trouble. But the story of Kevin Holland’s career, especially at middleweight, has been getting taken down and dominated on the mat. De Ridder has traditional level changes and nifty trips from the clinch. In his debut against Gerald Meerschaert, de Ridder showed that he has some dog in him. His kryptonite is a striker who he can’t take down. Kevin Holland isn’t that guy. Holland rocks a fifty-four percent takedown defense, and he lacks the ability to scramble back to his feet. The red flag for de Ridder is that without a finish, he won’t light up the Fantasy scoreboard. But I think a submission is in the cards for him.   

Beneil Dariush ($7.5k): After back-to-back losses, it’s hard to have much faith in a guy I thought was the dark horse in the division before the Charles Oliveira fight. But Benny’s grappling is different. Renato Moicano is more of a traditional grappler, while Benny uses a variety of guards and is one of the best scramblers in the division. Benny is a serious submission threat, even if he ends up in the bottom position. Check it: Dariush beat Mateusz Gamrot while being taken down four times and didn't score any takedowns of his own because he reversed positions from the bottom almost at will. I expect this fight to look similar. And if the fight stays standing, Benny has Chief Wiggum stupid power in his left hand. He will have a big power advantage on the feet.   

Diego Ferreira ($7.2): Not only is Diego a grappling wizard, but he also has Donkey Kong, wild striking. Diego doesn’t have much technique on the feet, but he throws nothing but wide, looping heavy shots. After Michael Johnson dominated Diego on the feet in the first round of their fight, Diego left MJ stiff as a board with his toes curled like a fookin’ cheese doodle in the second. Diego uses MJ as an ironing board now. Grant Dawson is a one hundred percent grappler. He has zero stand-up. If Diego can get back to his feet, he will sleep Dawson. Ferreira’s major malfunction is that he accepts being on his back too much when he is taken down. His takedown defense is only sixty percent, and he often gets lazy from his back. But he has excellent offensive grappling and could put Dawson on his back. Diego’s upside is a TKO/KO if he can force stand-up exchanges. 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Sergei Spivak (6.7K): Almeida vs. Spivak will be a wrestler vs. wrestler matchup. Sergey will likely get taken down in the first round, but I don’t see Almeida putting him in much danger. Serghey’s chances of winning will grow exponentially the longer the fight goes. We haven’t seen Almeida operate from his back, but Spivak has the wrestling to flip the script on him. And when two elite wrestlers/grapplers face-off, a tepid kickboxing match is always in the cards. Almeida doesn’t have much to offer on the feet. I can’t say Spivak does either, but he has more traditional striking and could steal close rounds by being the more efficient striker. This is a good price for a fight that I think is a toss-up.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Beneil Dariush (+150): I think Benny might be the better grappler when he faces Moicano. And if Moicano can’t dominate on the mat, he won’t win many fights on the feet. I think this fight will look a lot like Dariush vs. Gamrot. Dariush displayed some of the craziest takedown defense and reversals I’ve seen. He is one of the rare fighters who doesn’t mind being taken down. And on the feet, Benny’s left hand could put Moicano away. My only trepidation about Benny is that he didn’t look good in his last two fights. He seems to have a clear competition ceiling. But I don’t think Moicano is on the same level as Oliviera and Tsarukyan.  

Diego Ferreira (+215): I’m not exaggerating or partaking in hyperbole when I say Grant Dawson has zero stand-up. My man, King Green, KO’d Dawson in thirty seconds. Ferreira isn’t a technical striker by any means, but he has long, whipping punches and is coming in off back-to-back TKO/KO finishes. The key for Ferreira will be using his Jitz to get back to his feet when he gets taken down. If Dawson starts to fade like he did against Ricky Glenn in the third round, Ferreira can put Dawson on his back and dominate. Dawson is half the grappler from his back as he is from the top position.   

Merab (+260): Keep sleeping on Merab. His last four wins: Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo, and Sean O’Malley. Four former champions. This could turn into a grappling stalemate, and the fight decided on the feet. It’s anybody’s guess who will have the advantage. Umar has some of the most unique striking you will see, but Merab’s pace has destroyed many elite strikers. Umar’s dub against Cory Sandhagen didn’t come without some sketchy moments for Umar. If there’s anybody worth dropping a tweny twen-twen on, it’s Merab Dvalishvili. 

Pick ‘Em

Payton Talbott (-1200) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+725)  

Winner: Payton Talbott 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Jailton Almeida (-490) vs. Sergey Spivak (+355)  

Winner: Jailton Almeida 

Method: Decision  

Zachary Reese ( ) vs. Azamat Bekoev ( ) * 

Winner: Zachary Reese  

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Bogdan Guskov (-310) vs. Billy Elekana (+255) * 

Winner: Bogdan Guskov 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Grant Dawson (-275) vs. Diego Ferreira (+220) 

Winner: Grant Dawson 

Method: Decision 

Karol Rosa (-260) vs. Ailin Perez (+215) 

Winner: Karol Rosa 

Method: Decision 

Rinya Nakamura (-500) vs. Muin Gafurov (+375) 

Winner: Rinya Nakamura 

Method: Decision 

Ricky Turcios (+250) vs. Bernardo Sopai (-300) 

Winner: Bernardo Sopai 

Method: Decision 

Tagir Ulanbekov (-300) vs. Clayton Carpenter (+240) 

Winner: Tagir Ulanbekov 

Method: Decision 

*Late Replacement 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.