Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Dricus Du Plessis (-205) vs. Sean Strickland (+175)

DDP: DK: $8.6k | Strickland: DK:$7.6k

DDP is back, and I ain’t talking about the WWE. I ain’t talking about Diamond Cutters. In fact, the DDP I’m talking about doesn’t rock diamonds around his neck or on his fingers, so he won't give the false impression that they represent the pressure he was under to become a Champion. No, he was destined to be what he is: The best middleweight in the world. And when you have destiny on your side, pressure holds no dominion over the sanctity of your mind. You just do what you do. And what Driccus Du Plessis does is win. Yo! Hit that DJ Khaled and T-Pain “All I Do Is Win!” All DDP does is win, win, win, no matter what! 

Dricus Du Plessis is allergic to losing. His corner keeps an EpiPen on them in case, someday, the judges misjudge and hand DDP an L. DDP would look like he ordered the Admiral’s Feast at Red Lobster with a shellfish allergy should he ever come near an L. It’s like DDP got an mRNA vaccine that actually stops transmission, and he can't contract an L. The way Sean Strickland dodges punches, DDP dodges L’s. L’s stick to DDP like presidential felonies. L’s bounce off DDP like bullets do 50 Cent. Some say DDP lost the first Strickland fight, but DDP wasn’t cold and lifeless, lying on the mat. Like Ruth Langmore, you’re gonna have to kill DDP to hand him an L.   

Dricus Duplicitious: He fooled everyone. He came into his UFC debut rocking a pair of rickety Kenny Smith knees, knees looking weaker than the soles on Lizzo’s shoes. My man came in styling pigeon toes like Gucci slippers. And me and the homies looked like Charlie Murphy when Prince and his crew came out for the pick-up game wearing the same shit they had on in the club. Then he went and KO’d Markus Perez inside of one round. Fast forward, and DDP is 8-0 in the UFC and only two fights went the distance. And my record picking DDP fights is 0-8. I keep sleeping on this guy like a homie’s couch.  

How does DDP do it? Awkwardness. DDP’s awkward style is his superpower. His striking is awkward, like Thanksgiving dinner last November. I’ve always said DDP reminds me of a “Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine remake. Like when Chevy brought back Camaros, the UFC brought back Jardine with a new body style. DDP’s style is ugly, like AC Green. Bish, don’t call here anymooooore! Yo! Hit that “Big Egos!” DDP stumbles and bumbles around the cage like he stood up too fast. There’s no rhythm or cadence to his striking; he’s offbeat, like high school dances. He moves like a student driver working a clutch - abrupt starts and stops. DDP’s M.O. is using sudden blitzes to run you across the cage. He rushes you like a QB while winging looping hooks and overhands from angles thought to be extinct. You’ve never seen DDP angles before. When you think DDP is gassed and about to break, he explodes with Donkey Kong haymakers.   

And that’s just his stand-up. If DDP gets you to the mat, you’re gonna have a bad time. Being on the mat with DDP is like falling into the gorilla exhibit at the zoo. Parents have to cover their kids’ eyes while he mauls you. The zookeepers have to run in that bish and tranq his ass to get him off you. Wrestling used to gas DDP quickly, but his cardio is probably the most improved aspect of his game. He came into the UFC rocking that Luka cardio. Now, this guy can go five hard rounds even when implementing a wrestling-heavy game plan. The key for DDP in the rematch against Sean Strickland will be his wide punches. His punches are custom-made to beat Strickland’s world-class Philly Shell. It’s nearly impossible to beat Strickland down the middle. You have to beat him around his guard and parries. 

Speaking of Sean Strickland’s world-class Philly Shell, I took shit like Johnny Depp’s comforter when I said he was the Floyd Mayweather of MMA long before it was culturally acceptable. This guy takes meteor showers and towels off unscathed. Strickland is the only man in MMA with a true Philly Shell. The defensive maneuver isn’t about making you miss. It’s about deflecting punches and countering in the opponent’s brief moments of vulnerability. But Strickland can make you miss, too. He could dodge DMs from Travis Hunter’s girlfriend. Sean Strickland could have dodged the meteor that killed the dinosaurs.   

Strickland’s defensive awareness is uncanny. Prescient defense. Strickland can see into the future like State Farm canceling fire insurance months before the LA wildfires. You can call Sean Strickland the Martha Stewart of MMA because he insider trades punches. He gets inside information about what strikes are coming and always seems to make the right move. Maybe he’s the Pelosi of MMA (I am not a danger to myself)? Either way, Strickland’s defensive style lends to his offense because making someone miss is the quickest way to gas them out. As you tire, Strickland chips away steadily with crispy arm punches. He doesn’t rotate his hip; he just flicks punches at you, making them quicker to the target. Strickland is a volume-over-power striker who beats you down with accumulative damage.   

No matter who you thought won the first fight, one thing was certain, Strickland was rolling until an accidental headbutt opened a cut over his eye in the third round. After that, DDP’s punches started to find their targets. The key for Strickland will be staying away from the cage. Strickland rocks a seventy-seven percent takedown defense, and DDP was credited with six takedowns in the first meeting. Don’t sleep on Strickland’s defensive grappling. He’s very good at keeping his shoulders off the mat and scrambling back to his feet quickly. But defending takedowns is energy not spent offensively. Both fighters average six SLpM, but Strickland out-landed DDP in the first fight one hundred seventy-three to one hundred thirty-seven. But DDP’s strikes were more damaging, especially in the latter rounds.    

Fantasy-wise, you can’t go wrong with either guy. Strickland is nearly an automatic buck-fifty in five-round scraps. He’s been well above or just under one hundred fifty significant strikes in each of his last three bouts. And DDP will have to be around that range to keep up on the scorecards. The finishing threat is hands down, DDP. The biggest knock against Strickland is his lack of finishing ability. DDP is a three-prong finisher. He can finish Strickland on the feet or mat with strikes or a submission. DDP is the (-205) favorite, and Strickland is the (+170) live-ass dog. This is a toss-up in my book. The first fight was as close as you can get. I like the value of playing DDP for a late finish. The play for Strickland is a decision.   

The main event losing streak now sits at three, dating back to the last card of 2024. Israel Adesanya was looking solid until he wasn’t. After the first round, I was already counting my main event dub. Yo! Hit that Charlie Murphy, “WRONG! WRONG!” One right hand changed all that real quick and left me on my knees on my Bryce Mitchell skin rug. This might be the kiss of death. I’m picking DDP for the first time. Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me eight fookin' times? Not this time. I think DDP may get it done more impressively than the first. Dricus Du Plessis via TKO, round four. You know what to do. Put it on wax. 

Props

DDP: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+500) Dec (+150) 

Strickland: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+2800) Dec (250)

Winner: Dricus Du Plessis | Method: TKO Rd.4

Weili Zhang (+105) vs. Tatiana Suarez (-120)

Zhang: DK: $8k | Suarez: DK: $8.2k

What came first, the Weili or the Zhang? I still don’t know, homies. But I do know, if she stays upright during this fight, she will once again successfully defend her belt. Tatiana Suarez only fights on leap years. She has only fought twice since 2019 and didn’t appear once in 2024. But Weili is close to clearing out the division, and Suarez is the only name not already in her dub column. Well, Rose isn’t either. Rose Namajunas is the only woman to beat Weili inside the Octagon. And Rose did it twice. Although Weili is an accomplished wrestler/grappler, this will essentially be a striker vs. wrestler matchup.   

Tatiana Suarez’s wrestling accolades are longer than a BJ’s Restaurant menu, aka the War and Peace of restaurant menus. Suarez could takedown Stone Henge. If she can get a finger on you, you’re going down. She’s like Stallone in Cliffhanger, dangling from a guy wire over the Grand Canyon when she snatches a single leg. Suarez could take down my neighbor’s Christmas lights. Rudolph’s nose is still shining in through my bedroom window. Tatiana Suarez could take down the Lakers’ bubble championship banner. She’s a stage five clinger. She will cling to you like you forgot a dryer sheet. Space is her enemy. She has to eliminate it at all costs. Her striking is only a formality and a means for closing the distance and level changing. Suarez gets low like Lil Jon & The East Side Boyz. Yo! Hit that "Get Low!” Suarez gets lower than my expectations for the Dallas Cowboys next year. When she level changes and penetrates, she will run you across the cage to finish the takedown. There’s a sense of desperation in her wrestling that lends it an extra level of effectiveness. 

That desperation is born from her lack of stand-up ability. When you see Suarez, you think you’re watching a future champ. But when you see her striking, you think twice, like taking a doodie in public, and the seat is still warm. Suarez is a middle-tier Wii boxer. My seven-year-old niece is nice with the Wii sticks and would cause Suarez problems on the feet. Suarez strikes like she has been wrestling since she was little and didn’t learn striking until later in life. Which is pretty much the case. It’s hard to get wrestling stiffness out of a wrestler’s striking. But Tatiana’s major malfunction is that her injury history is as long as Zion Williamson’s. She doesn’t fight very often. But she has wins against high-level competition, including Jessica Andrade, Carla Esparza, and Alexa Grasso.   

Suarez is undefeated at 10-0 with two TKO/KOs and five subs. She averages over six take-downs per fifteen minutes and just under four and a half SLpM. Her striking stats mostly come from the top position, where she chips away with ground and pound. Her path to victory is getting Weili to the mat for twenty-five minutes. Weili has never been submitted, but Suarez could be the first to accomplish the feat. But wrestling for twenty-five minutes is nearly impossible, even for the best wrestlers in the world. If Suarez gets stranded on the feet, wrap it up, B. She can’t stand and trade with Weili for long.   

Never forget what Weili Zhang did to my MMA wifey, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Weili turned Joanna into the Twilight Zone episode when the pig people think the supermodel woman is hideous. Fook a forehead, Weili gave Jonna a 4D head. Weli added the z-axis to Jonna’s head. Weili turned Jonna into a fetish, a specialty category. After the fight, Jonna immediately started trying to take over the world every day on some Pinky and The Brain type-shit. Jonna looked like the NBA Jam big-head cheat code. And I’ve never quite forgiven Weili for that. That fight in 2020 was one of the best women’s fights of all time. We’ve seen Weili lose before, but we will never see a boring Weili Zhang fight.   

Weili Zhang has always reminded me of the female Mighty Mouse Demetrius Johnson. Yo! Hit that Lil Wayne “Go DJ!” Like DJ, Weili is compact and fast as fook boooooooy! Everything Weili does is fast. She gets eight hours of sleep in a blink. Weili is so hard to beat because she is like playing the computer on All-Madden mode, and every player has 99 ratings across the board. Weile has no area of weakness. I think only Merab can outpace her. She might be the female Merab. The only way she loses this fight is if she gets taken down early. Suarez will be a serious submission threat for the first ten minutes or so. But after that, the takedown well will slowly dry up, and the stand-up exchanges will get longer. On the feet, Suarez can’t see Weili like Weili is John Cena. Suarez can out-position Weili on the mat and take her back. But that’s a narrow path to victory.   

Weili averages over five and a half SLpM, two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, and four AWpM (four ass whippin’s per minute). The most important stat is Weili’s fifty percent takedown defense. I’m actually shocked that it’s so low. Yan Xiaonan took Weili down three times in Weili’s most recent bout. That’s not a good look coming into a fight against the best pure wrestler in women’s MMA. As I’m typing this, the odds are dead even, a Vegas pick ‘em with both fighters returning (-110). I think the play for Suarez is a submission. She could wrestle her way to a decision, but I think she depends on a finish more. Weili can outpoint Suarez on the feet. I have no idea about this one. That fifty percent takedown defense has me shook. And you already know, there ain’t no such thing as halfway crooks. Tatiana Suarez via rear-naked choke, round three. On wax.    

Props

Suarez: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+240) Dec (+350) 

Weili: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+1400) Dec (+275)

Winner: Tatiana Suarez | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Justin Tafa (+115) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-140)

Tafa: DK: $7.8k | Teixeira: DK:$8.4k

Well, this one will be an old-fashioned slobber-knocker, emphasis on the slobber. Justin Tafa is one-half of the Tafa brothers, infamous for deadly power on the feet and complete illiteracy on the mat. The Madden rating for Justin and Junior Tafa’s ground game is a zero point zero. The good news for Justin heading into a fight with the debuting Tallison Teixeira is that I don’t think Tallison has any plans of relocating the fight to the mat. Is Teixeira related to the former Champ, Glover? Hold on a second; let me check... Nope. But he has solid boxing, just like his pseudo-dad. Teixeira earned his spot on the UFC with an impressive first-round TKO on the Contender Series. This is one of the rare fights with a high likelihood of ending in the first round. 

Justin Tafa is a homeschooled striker. He doesn’t have that traditional public school technical striking. But he can still pass the Striking SATs with marks high enough to get accepted to an Ivy League institution. Tafa is a heavy-footed, lumbering bomb thrower. He has that Terry footwork. As in, “Back up, Terry! Put it in reverse, Terry!” My man doesn’t waste much energy getting out of the way of danger. Instead, he puts all his energy into his offense. And his offense is nothing but headshots like photographers. Tafa’s special weapon is stupid power. I’m talking about that Jerry Jones stupid power. That Dallas Mavericks stupid power. Dallas sports stupid power. When this guy lands, people burst like vampires in daylight. The key to beating the Tafa brothers is putting them on their backs. 

Tafa's has the ground game of a pine box. More important than takedown defense is getting back to your feet. That’s Tafa’s major malfunction. His get-ups are so weak he sleeps standing up like a fookin’ horse. Newton used the Tafa brothers’ ground game to prove half of his First Law of Motion: Objects at rest stay at rest unless acted upon by an outside force. They have to bust out Cranky from Thomas and Friends to get the Tafa brothers back to their feet. I don’t know if Teixeira has a ground game. But he is Brazilian, so... I think Groupon beginner's wrestling would be enough to get Tafa to the mat. The clearest path to victory against any Tafa will always be on the mat.   

I have only seen about three minutes of Tallison Teixeira fight footage, including his two-minute dub on the Contender Series. The first thing I noticed is that Teixeira rocks that Lebron fade. He looks like Keenan Allen during his rookie year. For my old-school fight heads, Teixeria’s stand-up style reminds me of Bigfoot Silva. Teixeira is an Ozempic Bigfoot – P90X Bigfoot. He’s built like a Yeti and has hands like a Yeti cooler. All offense, no defense – that's Teixeira on the feet. Tallison is a classic Gary Jules striker: The dreams he’s had of dying are the best he’s ever had. He fights as if he has a Death Wish, like Charles Bronson. He’s a danger to himself when he starts exchanging with reckless abandon. Defensively, Teixeira relies solely on his chin like the first and fifteenth.   

Teixeira’s best weapon is his jab. This guy will jab you from last week. He uses his jab as well as any big man to set up his power hand, and his aggression is in your face like “Boom, pow, surprise!” Teixeira punctuates short two to three-punch hand combinations with sneaky good round kicks. For his career, Teixeira is 7-0 with six TKO/KOs and one sub. In two minutes of action, he managed to land thirty strikes on the Contender Series. He’s a high-output striker, at least early in fights. I say that because he has never seen a second round. And Tafa averages four SLpM, which is solid for a heavyweight who tends to gas after the first five minutes. 

Teixeira will be the (-135) favorite, and Tafa will be the (+115) live-ass dog. Tafa has the big show fight experience that Teixeira lacks. And Tafa might have better one-punch Touch of Death power. Teixeira is far from a defensive striker; his chin will be tested early and often. As a matter of fact, the under-sixty-second finish will be in full effect. I could see one of these guys getting got with the quickness. The play for both fighters is a TKO/KO finish. Don't sleep on Justin Tafa in a stand-up matchup... But that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Tallison Teixeira via TKO, round one. Put it on wax. 

Props

Teixeira: TKO/KO (-225) Sub (+1800) Dec (+1000) 

Tafa: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+3000) Dec (+900)

Winner: Tallison Teixeira | Method: TKO Rd.1

Jimmy Crute (+140) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-165)

Crute: DK: $7.7k | Bellato: DK: $8.5k

Jimmy “Valmer” Crute is back. I thought this guy retired. Crute hasn’t fought since 2023. At one time, Jimmy looked like a future title challenger. But he was never the same after losing to Anthony Smith in 2021. Crute got the shit kicked out of his leg in that fight and had the Octagon canvas looking like Amber Heard got upset. Homie took a couple leg kicks, and his foot went limp like too many shots of whiskey before the nightcap. Crute’s foot looked like Ash’s hand in Army of Darkness. His foot said, “Fook this!” and took off running on its own, looking for an ass to kick. Crute looked like when your feet fall asleep while you’re on the John looking at memes and try to stand up. Homie’s foot looked like the control subject in the blue pill trials. And Jimmy Crute was never the same after that fight was stopped between the first and second rounds. Since 2020, Crute is 0-3-1, and every loss came via stoppage.   

I like to make fighter comparisons, especially comparing old-school fighters with the new generation. Jimmy Crute reminds me of C.B. Dollaway. Dollaway won one of the earlier seasons of the Ultimate Fighter and had a solid UFC career. For all the old-school fight heads who remember C.B. Dollaway, once you see it, you can’t unsee it. Crute’s stand-up is similar to Brendan Allen’s in the sense that it’s good enough to give him false confidence. He has crispy boxing, but he lacks defensive instincts. He doesn’t anticipate any blowback. Also, Crute has that Jerry Jones fight IQ. In his two most recent fights against Alonzo Menifield, Crute repeatedly traded naked leg kicks for Menifield right hands to the face. That’s like trading up to draft Mitch Trubisky and not Patrick Mahomes. Trading leg kicks for overhands is not a fair exchange. But don’t tell Jimmy Crute that. 

Jimmy Crute shines on the ground like Mop & Glo. Like C.B. Dollaway, Crute has sneaky good wrestling/grappling and an affinity for Kimuras. “Look, mom! No hands!” Crute will have you wiping hands free with the quickness. He’ll have you trying out bidets at Home Depot real quick. And Crute has the means for getting the fight to the mat. He has solid power doubles and just enough stand-up to set them up. Crute’s path to victory against Rodolfo Bellato will be on the mat. We haven’t seen Bellato’s ground game, and there’s no better time for Crute to find out than as soon as the bell rings. Crute was 10-0 with a submission over Paul Craig before losing his first fight to Misha Cirkunov. He has gone 2-4-1 since. Jimmy averages just over three and a half SLpM and nearly five takedowns per fifteen minutes.   

I don’t trust dude’s named Rodolfo. Dude’s named Rodolfo are usually built like Grammys romance novel covers and never wear shirts anywhere. The fook happened to “No Shirt, No Shoes, No Service?” Bellato looks like the main crony of every billionaire super villain. Overall, Bellato is a pure power striker. He doesn’t come with instructions and only has two buttons: Left Punch/Right Punch. The only tactic he implements on the feet is straight forward aggression while unloading overhands and hooks. Basically, Bellato is a meathead striker. “Pay attention, meathead. You’re saying the same shit that he said.” Yo! Hit that B. Rabbit! Rodolfo is like the last boss before the final boss. He’s like Goro and can sap half of your energy bar in one strike. But I bet you can guess Bellato’s major malfunction... 

His defense. He doesn’t have any. My man eats punches like Homer with his mouth open at the end of a conveyor belt of donuts. “Uh, towel rack, Dad.” They had to do gastric bypass surgery on Bellato because he couldn’t stop eating punches. Homie has high cholesterol because he eats so many punches. In his debut against Ihor Potieria, Bellato took a Lily Phillips beating before enacting an Easter-like comeback. Bellato was the Walking Dead. He was already starting to decompose after Potieria dropped him and followed up with vicious ground and pound. But Bellato came back like that shit on ya lip and stopped Potieria on the feet late in the second round. His pressure systematically broke Potieria down. If he can stay on his feet, Bellato will win this fight. Crute’s chin won’t hold up to Bellato’s power. But we don’t know much about Bellato’s overall game. I haven’t seen him on the mat or defending takedowns. That area of his level map is completely shaded - unexplored.   

Bellato is 12-2 with seven TKO/KOs and four subs and averages six and a half SLpM. Bellato will be the (-165) favorite, and Crute will be the (+140) live dog. What will Crute look like after a brief retirement? That’s the big question. In his prime, Crute would win this fight. But there’s no telling where his skills are at now. The play for Crute is a submission. If you want to get cute, a Kimura submission from side control. Crute will be a serious submission threat if he can get Bellato to the mat. The play for Bellato is a TKO/KO. Damn, this is a tough one. I don’t trust either of these guys any further than a rickshaw can carry Lizzo. I have to ride with the more active fighter. Rodolfo Bellato via TKO, round two. On wax.  

Props

Crute: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+1100) Dec (+300)  

Bellato: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+450) Dec (+650)

Winner: Rodolfo Bellato | Method: TKO Rd.2

Jake Matthews (-235) vs. Francisco Prado (+195)

Matthews: DK: $8.8k | Prado: DK: $7.4k

Gucci, Fendi, Francisco Prado. The former MTV Spring Break Champion is back and moving up a weight class to welterweight. This matchup makes about as much sense as trading Luka for AD. But at least you know Francisco Prado will be in shape. When this kid made his debut, he needed an adult chaperone to walk through the Vegas casino. My man was drinking Shirley Temples in the club. Prado was so young he got a Diddy party invite. But that was two years ago, and Prado now has three big league fights under his belt. Two of them were Ls, though. Prado seemed undersized at lightweight, so moving up to welterweight makes little sense. But here we are. And there Prado will be across the cage from Jake Matthews, who has been in the UFC for over a decade. If this one remains standing, it could turn into a crunchy little firefight.  

Prado reminds me of a frat boy who’s dad used to enter Tough Man contests. He looks straight out of Globo Gym. “Tired of being overweight and unattractive?” Prado rolls into the Octagon with White Goodman in his corner. Now that I think about it, Prado reminds me of a bag cereal version of Drew Dober. A Tootie Fruities Drew Dober, if you will. Prado is compact and powerful just like Dober. He throws nothing but short hooks and overhands, and his right hand hits noinety-five on the gun. If he can draw Matthews into exchanging in the pocket, Prado will have a chance to finish the fight. But Prado relies on power punches to close the distance. He’s too small...  

Prado still sits in the shopping cart at Target and gets stickers at checkout. He likes to utilize same-time counters and let the opponent close the distance for him. But Prado’s majorest malfunction is his ground game. He has a submissive-bottom ground game. His specialty is the “Love you long time” guard. When Prado is on his back, he shows no urgency to return to his feet. My man is a prude from his back. No effort. Calm seas, no motion in his ocean. He just stares at the ceiling and makes you self-conscious while you drop elbows and hammerfists on him. You start wondering if you’re doing a good job. And that’s no bueno when you're going up against Jake Matthews. Jake from State Farm has become almost exclusively a boxer lately, but he made a name for himself with his wrestling.   

Jake came into this game taking people down and riding out top control. Then he fell in love with standing and banging because chicks dig the KO. Matthews is a head-scratcher. There are times when he looks like Sean Brady on the feet, long crisp boxing, as he did against Andre Fialho. Then there are times when he looks like an amateur as he did against Matthew Semelsberger and Michael Morales. The problem with Matthews is that all his dubs (except his win against Li Jingliang) came against blank profile pictures. His dubs are all random career-mode dubs. He’s the UFC version of the 2024 Chargers. The Chargers only beat sorry teams all year and lost in the first round of the playoffs to a formidable opponent. The names in his dub column sound like names on Bases Loaded for NES. The names are all generic like QB Eagles in Techmo Super Bowl. Matthews lost to every legitimate fighter he fought. He has a clear ceiling.   

Overall, Jake Matthews is like a box of chocolates. You never know which Jake you’re gonna get. If he wakes up and sees his shadow, he’ll probably come out and get dominated on the feet. If he doesn’t see his shadow, he’ll take Prado down and finish him on the mat. He won’t even fook around on the feet. He will have a size advantage and could use his range to outpoint Prado on the feet. But if he’s the killer Jake Matthews, he’ll get straight to business and beat Prado at his weakness.   

The numbers: Prado is 12-2 with six TKO/KOs and six subs. He will be the higher output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM compared to Matthews’ just below three and a half. But Jake averages one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Prado’s rocks a twenty-five percent takedown defense. My man couldn’t walk through my living room with my kids' toys strewn about without falling down. That’s a glaring stat when fighting up a weight class against a wrestler at heart. The only play for Prado is a TKO/KO. He has to catch Jake with a hot one. I like playing Matthews for a late submission. Matthews will be the (-220) favorite, and Prado is the (+180) dog with a puncher’s chance. Prado can hurt Matthews on the feet if Jake is willing to engage in the pocket. This isn’t a given dub for Matthews. But I’m going to trust that Matthews gets the fight to the mat. Jake Matthews via rear-naked choke, round three.   

Props

Matthews: TKO/KO (+500) Sub (+1100) Dec (+110)  

Prado: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+1200) Dec (+600)

Winner: Jake Matthews | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Tom Nolan ($7.9k): Nolan vs Borshchev will be a stand-up banger. I’m picking Viacheslav Borshchev to edge out Nolan, but Nolan poses a serious threat. Nolan is a long and lanky striker whose range will cause Borshchev many problems. Never forget when Borshchev got pieced up by Chase Hooper, another long and lanky fighter. Borshchev is a savvy striker, but he struggles to close the distance against long fighters. Nolan is also a high-output striker, averaging over six and a half SLpM compared to Borshchev’s five and a half. Both fighters should produce high striking totals, win or lose. 

Justin Tafa ($7.8k): Tafa is an all-or-nothing option. Chances are, Tafa vs. Teixeira will be a one-round fight. One of these guys will get got. It’s a coin flip who that will be. Tafa has far more big show fight experience than Teixeira. He also has the advantage when it comes to one-punch KO power. Teixeira is more of a combination striker, while Tafa only needs one shot like Nas only needs one mic, one mic. This one will be like a dual at ten paces while double-fisting Punisher uzis. Nobody inside the arena will be safe. The downside for Tafa is that he is vulnerable defensively and has zero ground game. I have no idea what Teixeira’s wrestling/grappling looks like. There will be no chance of Tafa getting back to his feet if Teixeira has any takedowns in his back pocket. 

Sean Strickland ($7.6k): In a five-round fight, Sean Strickland is a near automatic buck fifty. My man has surpassed one hundred fifty significant strikes in two of his last three bouts and was just under the mark once. Barring an early finish, Strickland will take more than his pound of flesh. He’ll fook around and get a triple-double even if he is on the wrong side of the scorecards. I’m picking DDP to finish the fight late, but even if that comes to fruition, Strickland will have plenty of time to rack up striking stats. There’s only one man who completely whooped Sean Strickland’s ass... Alex Pereira. Other than that fight, you won’t see Strickland get outclassed. 

Clearance Rack

Rongzhu ($7.1k): If you find yourself in salary cap hell this weekend, digging around on the clearance rack, it will be slim pickings for the second week. The lowest salary option with a viable shot at winning/scoring significant stats is Rongzhu. Everyone else below him is a heavy dog with virtually no path to victory. Rongzhu will be fighting a debuting fighter in Kody Steele, a prototypical wrestler striker. I wasn't impressed much by Steele’s Contender Series performance. And Rongzhu is far from a world-beater, but he goes for it. He won’t sit back and play shit safe. Rongzhu averages five and a half SLpM and has eclipsed the one hundred strikes mark in a three-round fight. He rocks an eighty-five percent takedown defense, and if he can turn this into a kickboxing match, he can at least put some points on the board, even in a loss.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Jack Jenkins (+200): This dude is a leg assassin. Jenkins is a savvy leg kicker with clean stand-up. If he can stay on his feet against Gabriel Santos, this fight will be a crunchy little firefight. Santos has had a rough start to his UFC career, but he’s fookin' good. He debuted against Lerone Murphy and lost a close split decision that I thought he won. Then he was beating David Onama until he got caught in the second round. He won his most recent bout, relying heavily on his grappling. Jenkins is no chump on the mat, but he has to keep this standing at all costs. All he needs is a couple of leg kicks to change the tide. I think the odds are a little off. This one should be a classic FX Nip/Tuck close scrap with split decision written all over it. 

Justin Tafa (+115): Tafa is a steal at plus money against another striker making his debut. This one could come down to who lands first. Tafa has some slight wrinkles in his striking that Teixeira doesn’t have. Teixeira only moves in straight lines and never takes his head off the center line. While Tafa has some slick, subtle slips-and-rips on his tool belt. He also has a sneaky rear leg round kick. The downside for Tafa is that he gasses completely by the end of the first round. If he can’t score an early finish, Teixeira might pick him apart. 

Sean Strickland (+175): The main event almost always produces a live-ass dog. It’s usually the most competitive fight on paper. Especially when it’s a title fight. If the fight goes the distance again, Strickland will likely have the superior striking stats as he did in the first meeting. DDP landed the more consequential shots, especially late, but Strickland took the first two rounds before a headbutt changed the tide of the fight. Strickland needs to get out to another fast start. I think this one will again come down to the judges’s interpretation. And the busier fighter, barring any knockdowns or near-finishes, usually has the edge.    

Pick ‘Em

Jack Jenkins (+190) vs. Gabriel Santos (-225)  

Winner: Gabriel Santos 

Method: Decision 

Tom Nolan (+125) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (-140)  

Winner: Viacheslav Borshchev 

Method: Decision  

Cong Wang (-450) vs. Bruna Brasil (+350)  

Winner: Cong Wang 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Colby Thicknesse (+295) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-370)  

Winner: Aleksandre Topuria 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Zhu Rong (+170) vs. Kody Steele (-200) 

Winner: Kody Steele 

Method: Decision 

Jonathan Micallef (+185) vs. Kevin Jousset (-220) 

Winner: Kevin Jousset 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Quillan Salkilld (-570) vs. Anshul Jubli (+420) 

Winner: Quillan Salkilld 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Hyun Sung Park (-220) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (+185) 

Winner: Hyun Sung Park 

Method: Decision  

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.