Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Alexander Volkanovski (-125) vs. Diego Lopes (+105)

Volkanovski: DK: $8.2k | Lopes: DK:$8k

No one can survive at the top forever. The mark of a true champion isn’t the climb; it’s the descent. Most get too comfortable at the top and don’t heed the warnings, getting perilously close to the edge of defeat and relying on their greatness to act as a safety net. Others try to hang on indefinitely and slowly succumb to the harsh elements. Either way, eventually, they all fall. While some flail, panic-stricken, like stuntmen playing to the camera for dramatic effect, others embrace the descent and use it as a conduit to express their mortality artistically, turning into Greg Louganis, triple gainers, lateral twists, and ending in a graceful swan dive. No splash. Then there are those who tumble head over heels, striking every jagged edge, boulder, woodland critter, spiny bush, and tree with spear-like limbs all the way down like Homer when he tried to jump the Springfield Gorge on Bart’s skateboard. The special ones refuse to accept fate and cling to any fingerhole they can find, fighting inch by inch to get back to that place where everybody knows their name. And they’re always glad they came. They want to be where the people can see their troubles are all the same.   

Cheers to all the Champions, past and present. Alexander Volkanovski summited the featherweight division and never got so much as a nosebleed. After defending the belt five times, Volkanovski was so acclimated to the high attitude he became a fookin’ sherpa. Volkanovski isn’t a legend because of his title defenses, though. He’s a legend because of the risks he took along the way. Volk is the CEO of Life’s A Risk, Carnal Inc. Homie sits on the board and collects a pension. He gives motivational speeches at the yearly team build. We all pretend to have a little Alexander Volkanovski in us. Because when pressure is pushing down on me, pressing down on you, we all want to believe we’d look like Volkanovski playing to the crowd with his back against the cage and Islam Makhachev on his back. Because Volk is cooler than a polar bear’s toenails. Oh, hell. There he goes again, talkin' that shit. What’s cooler than being cool? Ice Cold! Alright, alright, alright, alright... And what's colder than ice cold? Alexander Volkanvoski!   

Volkanovski’s special power is that he’s from Australia. There’s a reason why Mad Max takes place in the Australian outback. You risk your life just walking to the end of your driveway to check the mail in Australia (Get it? checking the mail). You could get surrounded by a pack of dingoes, swung on by a TRT kangaroo, or bitten by a tarantula the size of a German Shepherd. Volkanovski averages over three near-death experiences a day. You think he gives a fook about fighting Islam Makhachev on a week’s notice? Volkanovski badger don’t care. Volkanovski badger don’t give a shit. He just takes what he wants. Nobody who ever reached for the stars came away with a handful of dirt, homies.   

Maybe Volk took too many risks? If that’s even possible. He is coming in off back-to-back KO losses. Nobody told Volk not to play in the cobbled streets of Pamplona when a bull is coming through. Homie got run over like Matt Hughes. Run over like Dwayne Haskins. Volk got that Carol Baskins work against Ilia Topuria. My man was Baskin like Robbins in the limelight for years at the top of the division and now finds himself chasing the belt again. The question isn’t, is Volkanovski a better fighter than Diego Lopes? That answer is yes. The question is Volkanvoski’s chin. Is it on the downside of its career?   

If Volk can keep the fight standing and avoid a Lopes haymaker within the first five minutes, he will dominate the stand-up. Lopes comes out NBA Jam on fire at the beginning of fights, dunking from halfcourt and burning the net to ashes with threes from all over the Octagon. Then he slowly fizzles out. If Lopes can’t land something big early, I think he’ll resort to his wrestling/grappling. Volk rocks a seventy percent takedown defense, but numbers lie. The tapes don’t. Volk’s takedown defense gets stronger as the fight progresses. It held up like Mormon underoos in the first Makhachev fight. And his sub-defense? The CIA couldn’t even choke Alexander Volkanovski. David Carradine’s fishnets couldn’t choke Volk. In thirty career fights, Volk has never been submitted. Homie won’t even submit his taxes.  

But if anybody could do it, the Goth kid from South Park can. “Life is pain. Life is only pain. That’s Diego Lopes’ motto. Don't you dare call him Emo. Everybody knows a Goth’s darkness is nihilistic whereas an Emo’s is cynical. To Diego Lopes, the only purpose in life is to kick ass. There is no other meaning or value for him. Instead of rags to riches, Lopes went from trench coats to mink coats. From black nail polish to pinky rings. Even after a debut short notice loss to Movsar Evloev, Lopes has been movin’ on up the ranks like the Jeffersons. But fook a deluxe apartment in the sky. Homie dreams of a Hot Topic in the sky if he can beat Volk and become the Undisputed Champ.  

Don’t let Lopes’ haircut fool you. It looks like a trance rave in the front and a country line dance in the back. Homie looks like a zesty Theo Von. Like a business casual Riff Raff. But he fights like a James Dean Rebel Without a Cause on the feet. He’s destined for a head-on collision. Lopes makes up for massive technical holes with aggression. Since his debut, I have been trying to raise awareness about the dangers of Lopes’ striking, like Al Gore warning us about ManBearPig. I’m super cereal. His striking is holier than third-generation hand-me-down chonies. And he will get got soon if he doesn’t reverse course. Lopes reminds me of a bigger Alexandre Pantoja on the feet. All offense, no defense. Alternating left/rights. And only moving forward in a straight line. Lopes usually overwhelms early and then rides the wave to the finish line.   

But Lopes is special on the mat. His Grandpappy was a Jiu-Jitsu coral belt. Thank ain’t some Bikini Bottom shit, either. You receive a coral belt after you’ve held a black belt for thirty years. Lopes inherited a black belt like most kids inherit blue eyes and male pattern baldness. From his back, Lopes throws up submissions like jabs on the feet. Heel hooks, armbars, kneebars, chokes: Lopes has a variety of submissions on his record. Homie is 26-6 with ten TKO/KOs and twelve subs. Lopes has that Philip Rivers finishing game. The key for Lopes will be committing to his grappling. I don’t think he can win a twenty-five-minute technical kickboxing match against Volk. Lopes will be at a speed disadvantage, and after the first round, his chances of finishing the fight on the feet diminish with each passing minute.   

Volk will be the (-150) favorite, and Lopes will be the (+125) live-ass dog. Lopes is on a fookin’ roll, and Volk is dead in the water after two KO losses. He will likely come in shot out of a cannon and is deadly as all get-out in the opening minutes. He thrives within a chaotic atmosphere. It’s when the fight slows down that he struggles. I think the play for this one is a decision one way or the other. Lopes couldn't finish Dan Ige or Brian Ortega after they brought in a deacon to read Ortega his last rights after the first round. I think Volk’s technical ability will keep him out of danger if he can extend the fight.   

Die by the robbery, live by the robbery. The main event dub streak now sits at three after Lerone Murphy won an ugly, suspect decision last week. You already know we don’t apologize for dubs on the WKO. I don’t know what I’ll do if Volkanovski loses this one. I think he’s still the better all-around fighter. And his resume is second to no one’s. Alexander Volkanovski via decision. Put it on wax.  

Props

Volkanovski: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+1800) Dec (+200) 

Lopes: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+550) Dec (+450)

Winner: Alexander Volkanovski | Method: Decision

Michael Chandler (+130) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-150)

Chandler: DK: $7.8k | Paddy: DK: $8.4k

Michael Chandler is the Last Action Hero. He’s the last great MMA action hero. There’s Stallone, Arnold, Van Damme, and Michael Chandler. He’s a throwback to 80s and 90s action films, nothing but mushroom cloud explosions, double-fisting machine guns with extended clips curving like elephant tusks, high-speed car chases, jumping out of planes without parachutes, snapping necks with his bare hands, and more fookin’ mushroom clouds. Michael Chandler has a star on the Ass-Kicking Walk of Fame with his fist imprints. In MMA’s version of Hollywood, it would be the Chandler sign on the top of Mt. Lee above Beachwood Canyon in the Santa Monica mountains. The Oscar would be sculpted in his likeness. Few fighters have more blockbuster ass-whoopins on their resume than Michael Chandler. His fights are one hundred-million-dollar James Cameron productions. They roll out the red carpet for every Michael Chandler scrap.   

After a two-year hiatus in which Chandler battled Conor McGregor addiction, Chandler returned in classic epic Chandler fashion against Charles Oliveira. Chandler spent two twilight years sitting in the corner of a Snooty Fox hotel room, watching Conor Mcgregor make love to a pile of that Snow White. Chandler turned into the MMA Screech chasing Kelly Kapowski. But all that’s old shit. Against Do Bronx, Chandler got the entirety of his ass kicked early in the fight. Then he came back like Meek Mill leaving a Diddy Party. Wait for it... Woof! Chandler waited for the Lizzo halftime show and nearly stole the fight late. This guy reaches a different level of “IDGAF,” and that’s when he’s the most dangerous. When he’s on the brink of death. Chandler dances on the edge of defeat like Simone Biles doing cartwheels on the balance beam.   

MC is on the wrestler striker Mt. Rushmore. His right hand will vaporize you like old-school Sci-Fi alien ray guns. All Chandler needs in this life of sin is him and his right hand. It doesn’t matter if you know it’s coming. It will land. It always lands. His fights are always a race against the clock. Who will get got first? Somebody is getting got. And for Chandler, it’s okay if it’s him. As long as the ending is epic. Prime Chandler beats Paddy’s ass on every planet in the Milky Way. Gravity, no gravity, a little bit of gravity; it doesn’t matter. Paddy wouldn’t be able to get Chandler down. And eventually, Chandler would spin Paddy’s head on his shoulders like the Exorcist girl. The question: Is Chandler still in his prime or close to it? I think he is.   

In between fights, Paddy Pimblett wears a fat suit like Eddie Murphy in The Nutty Professor. He turns into Barney Gumble, a bloated lush. “Don’t cry for me. I’m already dead.” Fin. Paddy gets more bloated than the US war budget. My man retains water like the Titanic. Homie pushes weight like the Real Rick Ross. But then he gets on that Shaun T Insanity and never misses weight. Homie sheds weight like snakes do skin. After his most recent fight against my favorite current fighter, King Green, Paddy served me my own words like a bar and grill. I said Paddy challenged Satan to a duel with an empty clip; he didn’t have a shot in hell. I said Paddy didn’t have enough time left to buy green bananas. Then he choked out King Green in the first round. Insult to injury: Paddy didn’t even finish Tony Ferguson.   

Paddy is a back specialist. He’s a solid grappler but has a specific area of expertise. The back mount. There isn’t anybody he can’t finish from that position. Paddy has ten career submissions to go with six TKO/KOs. Two of those subs are flying triangle chokes. From the standing position, Paddy jumps into a triangle choke. Paddy is submission over everything. His major malfunction is that his takedowns aren’t great. They’re not Mackenzie Dern takedowns, but he struggles to get the fight to the mat and averages less than one takedown per fifteen minutes. When it comes to stand-up, Paddy is a lot like Diego Lopes; he’s highly vulnerable. 

On the feet, Paddy couldn’t strike if he was on a picket line. I got a lion in my pocket; I’m lyin'. There might be a little cap like a toupee in that statement. Paddy isn’t helpless on the feet, but he severely lacks technical prowess. Especially defensively. He doesn't use a hand guard, doesn’t move his head, and doesn’t have much footwork. Paddy isn’t a striker; he’s a swinger. And I ain’t talking about HOJO conference rooms, pasties, masquerade masks, and fat dudes. Paddy will swing on you like your neighborhood Spider-Man. Swing on you like underdogs on the playground. But he gets picked apart in a traditional, back-and-forth kickboxing match. He needs chaotic exchanges and scrambles on the mat to have a chance on any given Saturday night.   

Yo! Hit that Black Rob “Whoa!” Like whoa! Paddy Pimblett is the (-160) favorite, and Chandler is the (+135) live-ass dog shittin’ on ya lawn. I had to take a time out to drop a quick Andy Jack on my man. I didn’t expect Chandler to be the dog. I just don’t see where Paddy can beat Chandler. Maybe from his back if Chandler decides to wrestle. Chandler is susceptible to getting caught on the feet, but his right hand is the single best weapon in this fight, and it will find the mark. It always finds the mark. The tricky part of this fight is deciding on a finish or decision. Paddy is a tough bass turd. He’s never been finished on the feet in twenty-five career scraps. But he’s never eaten a Chandler right hand. At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, and when the chips are down, I think it will go the distance. Michael Chandler via decision. On wax.   

Props

Chandler: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+900) Dec (+600) 

Pimblett: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+215) Dec (+1000)

Winner: Michael Chandler | Method: Decision

Jean Silva (-260) vs. Bryce Mitchell (+215)

Silva: DK: $9.1k | Mitchell: DK:$7.1k

This one right here is a home-schooled vs charter school matchup. Jean Silva is the H.N.I.C., the Head Nerd In Charge, the leader of the Fighting Nerds, a group of fight geniuses taking over the MMA world. And you already know Bryce Mitchell. He recently played Sleepy the Dwarf in the Snow White live-action movie. He studied for the role when he fought Josh Emmett at the end of 2023. Emmett slept Mitchell with an overhand right that left Mitchell rehearsing for the Michael J. Fox biopic on the mat. Homie was literally shaking like he was offended by an opposing view. When Mitchell steps into the cage against Jean Silva, you may notice the red circles on his back. Those aren’t from cupping, a popular muscle recovery method. Those are drink stain rings from this past Thanksgiving when he served as the kid's table at the Emmett family Thanksgiving dinner. You can’t get kids to use napkins, much less coasters. Mitchell is one fight removed from one of the scariest KO losses in UFC history, and the UFC isn’t doing him any favors by matching him up with Silva, who is riding a four-fight TKO/KO streak. 

After the Emmett KO, the UFC went out of their way to match up Mitchell with the only man on earth who couldn’t knock him out, the double-hand amputee, Kron Gracie. Mitchell went on to get back into the win column with a third-round KO slam. It’s no secret that Mitchell is a ground specialist. When it comes to wrestling/grappling, Mitchell is one of the best in the division behind the former champ, Ilia Topuria. He averages nearly three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes and dominates on the mat. His only two losses came against guys he couldn’t get to the mat. That’s because Mitchell’s striking is amateur at best. I would kickbox Bryce tomorrow. No cap like the national anthem. If Mitchell can’t get Jean Silva to the mat, he might get caught sleeping on the job again.   

If Mitchell gets stuck on the feet, he may wake up talking about how the earth is round and revolves around the sun. He might wake up talking about how the globalists, a corporate cabal that penetrates the cabinets of governments around the world with their indoctrinated ideologues, want to build a surveillance police state to crush any revolutionary spirit when the people finally watch A Bug’s Life and realize their collective power and rise against their oppressors. Haha... Oh, wait a minute... Anywho, Mitchell’s striking is as bad as his grappling is good. If this was a straight kickboxing match, no athletic commission in the world would sanction it. Mitchell will have to spam level changes and get this fight to the mat ASAP. And keep it there. Mitchell is 17-2 with one TKO/KO and noine subs.   

Jean Silva is an ass-kicking genius. He has a two-hundred-fight IQ. He stays geeked up, but we ain’t talking about Tony Montana’s desk. We ain’t talking geeked up like Conor McGregor whenever he’s in public. Silva received a full-ride scholarship to Fight University and graduated with a triple major in boxing, kickboxing, and Muay Thai. If you ever run into Silva in public, just hand over your thesis paper about the environmental effects of Bart Simpson unleashing North American toads into the Australian Outback and walk away. Jean Silva has his own booth at Ass-Kicking Con. The meet-and-greet line will be around the block this year if he Josh Emmetts Bryce Mitchell. 

Jean Silva is a special striker. His special powers are prescient counters. Neurolink counters. He anticipates what you will throw because he subconsciously manipulates you to throw it. He freezes you with in/out movement and draws out your offense with feints. Then he steps back on you like every NBA possession with the clock running out. The step-back counter is Silva’s special move. It’s a timing counter that he sets up after analyzing your reactions to his feints/movements. The key for Silva will be staying upright. This will be a blowout on the feet. But don’t get it twisted. There is a path to defeat for Silva. He rocks an eighty percent takedown defense but gave up three takedowns in his fight against Charles Jourdain. And Jourdain’s wrestling isn’t even comparable to Mitchell’s. If he’s not careful, Silva could get grounded and spend too much time on his back. 

Silva will be the (-285) favorite, and Mitchell will be the (+235) live dog. Live dog? This fight feels like Sabatini vs. Brito in last week’s co-main event. Sabatini is just as inept on the feet as Mitchell is but was able to take down and control Brito for nearly the entire fight. Mitchell can pull off a similar performance. That’s usually a tough task for even the highest-level wrestlers. But Mitchell is one of the few fighters who can wrestle for fifteen minutes without gassing. But the discrepancy on the feet is much larger than the discrepancy on the mat. The play for Mitchell is a decision. And this may sound crazy, but I think the play for Silva is also a decision. He won’t be able to rely on his counters and won’t be able to let his strikes go against a guy who will be looking for every opening to take him down. Without a finish, Silva might be a rare Fantasy bust this weekend. Styles make fights. Mitchell is a tricky style to fight. But I’m not betting against any member of the Fighting Avengers. Jean Silva via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Silva: TKO/KO (-105) Sub (+900) Dec (+350) 

Mitchell: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+650) Dec (+450)

Winner: Jean Silva | Method: Decision

Yair Rodriguez (-195) vs. Patricio Pitbull (+165)

Yair: DK: $8.7k | Pitbull: DK: $7.5k

The human green screen, Yair Rodriguez, is back. And the lifelong Bellator Featherweight Champion, Patricio Pitbull, is finally making his UFC debut. Pitbull has fought under the Bellator banner since 2010 and racked up multiple titles. Kevin Garnett once said, “Anything is possible!” after winning the chip with the Boston Celtics. But I disagree. This fight hitting the mat isn’t possible. This is a stand-up banger if there ever was one. Yair is one of the most intricate strikers in the game, and Pitbull has classic Brazilian Muay Thai. This should have been last weekend’s Fight Night main event and could steal the show on the main card.   

Yair is the most prolific stunt striker in the game. He comes out rocking the green pajamas with little white balls attached to them. Yair is a motion capture striker. Seeing Yair strike for the first time was a game changer like watching Jurassic Park or Terminator 2 for the first time. Yair has those T-1000 graphics when he strikes. He’s the MMA Tony Jaa. If it was the 90s, Yair would be starring in movies with DMX. Yair is the only man who can pull off Liu Kang’s bicycle kick in a fight. And a FIFA bicycle kick just for the fook of it. Purgatory is being stuck within kicking range against Yair. He has solid hands, but his striking is kick-based. His foot speed is on par with Thailand’s great Muay Thai fighters like Buakaw, Saenchai, Rodtang, and Superlek. If you don’t know those names, you better ask the You Tube search box. 

Overall, Yair is a striking historian, possessing every strike ever invented since the beginning of man in his repertoire. Opponents can't pick up on any tendencies or patterns because Yair doesn’t have any. Yair is the ultimate flow state junkie. He doesn’t preprogram strikes; he feels them. He feels which strike comes next. Never forget what Yair did to The Korean Zombie. Yair landed a ducking back elbow at the buzzer that left The Zombie face down, snorting imaginary rails on the mat. He’s like a trick-shot pool player but with striking. There’s no strike he can’t land. Yair's major malfunction has always been his ground game. He has good striking from his back and can even submit you, but he spends too much time on the bottom and eventually starts taking too much damage.   

But Yair won’t have to worry about his guard unless he falls victim to his own success. If he does Yair shit and starts to overwhelm Pitbull on the feet, Pitbull may have no choice but to level change. But Pitbull will likely come to prove himself on the feet. Patricio is one of the Snoop Dogg Top Dogg pitbulls all grown up. He won his first world title fighting in Michael Vick FC. This MF needs a service animal vest to go out in public. This MF will shit on your lawn like ODB and make you pick it up. Pitbull has a one-minute TKO of Michael Chandler on his resume. He has always reminded me of a mini-Wanderlei Silva. Unmitigated aggression with the classic clubbing hooks and overhands. In his prime, Pitbull could compensate for any technical disadvantage with power. I say “in his prime” because I think his move to the UFC might be a little too late.  

Also, this ain’t the XFL. If you look at Pitbull’s resume, Chandler and Benson Henderson are the best fighters he has ever fought. And he lost to Henderson. Pitbull could have a down payment on a house if he recycled all the cans he’s been collecting on his resume. This ain’t the minor leagues anymore. This ain’t the Springfield Isotopes. His most recent win was against a UFC dropout. And he was losing that fight until he landed a big shot in the third round. As an Angels fan, this acquisition feels like when the Angels signed Albert Pujols. Pujols wasn’t the same guy who won chips with the Cardinals. This isn’t the same Pitbull from his dominant years with Bellator. Pitbull has to time one big shot. You only get one shot... opportunity... Lose Yourself! Hit that shit! He has to catch Yair when Yair starts wildin’ out with extended combinations. 

Yair will be the (-185) favorite, and Pitbull will be the (+160) live dog. Pitbull will have to rely on one big shot to change the tide. Yair outstrikes him four and a half SLpM to Pitbull’s just under three. Yair will likely win rounds based on volume if Pitbull can’t score a knockdown. All Yair has to do is not take himself down by being over-aggressive. Both fighters have been finished multiple times on the feet, so a finish is in play. I think Yair is the bigger threat. His hand and foot speed could overwhelm Pitbull. Give me Yair Rodriguez via TKO, round two. On wax.   

Props

Yair: TKO/KO (+320) Sub (+2000) Dec (-110)  

Pitbull: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+400) Dec (+600)

Winner: Yair Rodriguez | Method: TKO Rd.2

Nikita Krylov (-185) vs. Dominick Reyes (+160)

Krylov: DK: $8.8k | Reyes: DK: $7.4k

The classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Don’t look now, but Dominick Reyes, aka Building 8, aka The Controlled Demolition Man, is back! After losing four in a row, three by TKO/KO, Reyes is on a two-fight dub streak, both coming via TKO/KO. Never forget the time Reyes got held up by three judges wearing dead presidents masks when he fought Jon Jones for the title. One judge even mooned him on his way out of the Octagon. Reyes then spiraled out of control and lost three in a row in devastating fashion. Motel 6 couldn’t even keep the lights on for Reyes. Jiri folded Reyes like an origami crane with a spinning back elbow, and Ryan Spann collapsed Reyes at freefall speeds with a jab. But then he went and TOTALLY REDEEMED HIMSELF like Lloyd Christmas. Dom should make the walk to the Octagon wearing an orange suit and matching top hat. 

The montage music plays in the background now when Reyes fights. He’s on the comeback trail, running the Rocky stairs in Philly. Reyes is coming in off back-to-back TKO/KOs of Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith. Reyes has always been an underrated boxer. Go back to the Jiri fight. Dom had several big moments in that fight and even flash-KO'd Jiri with an up-kick from the bottom. Reyes’ special weapon is his left hand. He spams left hands like “Scam Likely” calls. His power sneaks up on you, and you don’t realize it until it’s too late. The only knock against Reyes’ striking is that he only throws hands. He doesn’t implement kicks consistently or any other techniques. Reyes is mostly a boxer. But none of that will matter if he can’t keep the fight standing.   

Reyes rocks an eighty-two percent takedown defense, but he has never faced a wrestler/grappler like Nikita Krylov. Reyes has always seemed to get matched up with fellow strikers. Submission defense will be more important than takedown defense. Nikita Krylov is a finisher on the mat. He doesn’t give a fook about control time. Homie has sixteen career subs to go with twelve TKO/KOs in thirty career wins. Can Dom defend submissions while getting back to his feet? I don’t really know. He’s never been tested like this.  

Krylov is a Tyreke Hill finisher. The finishing Mt. Rushmore: Antonio Cromartie, Phillip Rivers, Tyreke Hill, and Nikita Krylov. This guy is the Slim Shady LP track number fifteen on the feet. He just don’t give a fook. Anybody can catch is hands like the flu. His hands are contagious. You can still catch them even if you’re up to date on all your boosters. The CDC recommends a ten-day quarantine if you catch a wild Krylov overhand or hook. Throwing hands is an involuntary reaction like sneezing to Krylov. He sprays his hands like a bottle of Windex. Kyrlov’s striking incorporates little technique. He just throws hands against the wall and sees if they will stick.  

But Krylov is the most virulent on the mat. He does his own stunts on the mat, like Tom Cruise. As wild as Yair Rodriguez is on the feet, Krylov is on the mat. This guy is the grappling stand-in for your favorite fighter. I start to sweat when I watch Krylov fight. It’s like watching dudes do Parkour across high rises. Krylov chains submissions together like hand combinations and won’t hesitate to give up any position while hunting for a sub. He is the definition of submission over submission. Krylov averages just under two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. But only four of his thirty-noine career fights went the distance. Of his noine career Ls, seven came via finish. But only one came via TKO/KO.   

Krylov will be the (-195) favorite, and Reyes will be the (+165) live-ass dog. If this fight stays standing, Reyes will dominate and finish Krylov. I thought the odds would be closer to a pick ‘em. If Reyes can stuff two or three takedowns, Krylov will relent to stand and bang. The key stat is that Krylov hasn’t fought in two years. The more active fighter has been winning these types of matchups recently. I’ve been burned many times. Both fighters will be all-or-nothing Fantasy options. The play for Krylov is a submission. And the play for Reyes is a TKO/KO. There’s too much value in the dog to pass him up. Dominick Reyes via TKO, round two. Wax on, wax off.  

Props

Krylov: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+300) Dec (+350)  

Reyes: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1600) Dec (+400)

Winner: Dominick Reyes | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Michael Chandler ($7.8k): Even if MC loses, he goes out with a bang. He will have two extra rounds in a five-round co-main event to drop bombs on Paddy Pimblett. I don’t see Pimblett getting the fight to the mat consistently over five rounds. He may only have one or two opportunities to finish Chandler on the mat. Oliveira couldn’t finish Chandler on the mat after securing five takedowns. And Oliveira’s takedowns are far better than Pimblett’s. The majority of this fight will likely play out on the feet, and I don’t see Paddy causing Chandler any problems outside of the first five to ten minutes. Chandler is the finishing threat on the feet, and he also has his own takedowns. Paddy rocks a fifty-two percent takedown defense. Chandler could be the one to gain the top position, using his chaotic stand-up to set them up.   

Dominick Reyes ($7.4k): Reyes vs. Krylov is a coin flip. It’s a classic grappler vs. striker matchup. Krylov is no chump on the feet, but he severely lacks technical abilities. He’s a fly-by-the-seat-of-his-chonies striker, a daredevil striker. If he can’t immediately get Reyes to the mat and secure a submission, and the fight gets drawn out into the second and third rounds, I like Reyes’ chances of taking over and dominating on the feet. After dropping four in a row, Reyes is riding a two-fight dub streak (both TKO/KOs). Kyrlov and Reyes will be all-or-nothing Fantasy picks, and it will be decided by which fighter can dictate where the fight takes place. Krylov averages nearly two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, while Reyes defends at eighty-two percent. The upside for Reyes is a TKO/KO finish.   

Dan Ige ($7.7k): Dan Ige will have to make up for volume with power against the human Hieroglyph, Sean Woodson. Woodson strikes at a rate of over five and a half SLpM compared to Ige’s three and a half. But Ige will have a massive power advantage. Woodson’s hands are made of memory foam; they mold to your face when they land. Ige’s punches Break Stuff like Limp Bizkit. Woodson will need one hundred strikes to win, while Ige will only need one. This is a big step up in competition for Woodson, but Ige has fought everybody who’s anybody in the featherweight division. Big fight experience will be on Ige’s side. 

$6k Clearance Rack

Darren Elkins ($6.9): The Clearance Rack has two solid options this week, Darren Elkins and Jim Miller. I’m picking Elkins because this guy is a dog’s dog. This guy starts bleeding after the cutman puts the Vaseline on his forehead before he enters the Octagon. Nothing about a Darren Elkins fight is pretty. On the feet, Elkins is a punching bag, but if he can get you to the mat, you’re not getting back up. Elkins has excellent wrestling and submissions. He also beats you up from the top position before finishing you off. Elkins will have to be careful from the top against Julian Erosa. Erosa is an expert with guillotines and D’arce/Anacondas chokes, which he uses to defend takedowns. Erosa is one of those fighters who will look like a world-beater in one fight and TLC scrub in another. You never know which Erosa will show up. But don’t count Elkins out. He has won two in a row and three of his last four. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Jim Miller (+600): You’re reading that correctly. This might be the biggest underdog ever featured as a Sleeper. I picked Chase Hooper to beat “Earthworm” Jim Miller, but these odds are wild; they’re howling at the fookin’ moon. Chase Hooper is a Jiu-Jitsu specialist. His stand-up has improved, but it’s still not at a level where he can compete with elite strikers. Miller isn’t an elite striker, but his left hand still puts people to sleep. And on the mat, Miller has twenty-one career subs, including submissions over Charles Oliveira, Donald Cerrone, and Clay Guida. He’s far from a chump on the mat. If Miller can scramble to his feet without giving up his back, I like his chances on the feet. Win or lose, I think this fight will be closer than the odds suggest. 

Dominick Reyes (+155): Reyes is the better striker and features an eighty-two percent takedown defense. He’ll be in a world of trouble if he ends up on his back, but I think he will run away with the stand-up if he can stay on his feet. Nikita Krylov will be making his first appearance in two years. 2025 has been the year of the active fighter. The more active fighter has been winning matchups against guys coming off long layoffs, as was the case a couple of weeks ago when Kevin Holland beat Gunnar Nelson. Reyes has won two in a row via TKO/KO and is on a roll after a four-fight rough patch. That Reyes left hand will be a problem for Krylov. 

Michael Chandler (+120): Paddy has never been in a fight like he will be in on Saturday night against Michael Chandler. Nothing can prepare you for the chaos that ensues during a Chandler fight. MC’s right hand will be the deciding factor in this one. It will touch Paddy’s chin. Paddy has massive technical holes on the feet, especially defensively. Paddy’s ground game is slept-on, but his striking is very average. Chandler fooked around and damn near stole the Oliveira fight late in his last bout. I don’t think Paddy has ever been in a war like that fight. Also, I think Chandler’s takedowns are better than Paddy’s. Chandler might be the one to flip the script and take the fight to the mat. But I’ll put an Andy Jack on Chandler’s right hand any given Saturday night.   

Pick ‘Em

Dan Ige (+145) vs. Sean Woodson (-170)  

Winner: Dan Ige 

Method: Decision 

Xiaonan Yan (+130) vs. Virna Jandiroba (-145)  

Winner: Virna Jandiroba 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Jim Miller (+600) vs. Chase Hooper (-950)  

Winner: Chase Hooper 

Method: Decision 

Darren Elkins (+275) vs. Julian Erosa (-350) 

Winner: Julian Erosa  

Method: D’arce Choke Rd.2 

Sedriques Dumas (+170) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-200) 

Winner: Michal Oleksiejczuk 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Su Mudaerji (-170) vs. Mitch Raposo (+145) 

 Winner: Mitch Raposo 

Method: Decision 

Tresean Gore (+285) vs. Marco Tulio (-370) 

Winner: Marco Tulio 

Method: Decision 

Nora Cornolle (-170) vs. Hailey Cowan (+145) 

 Winner: Nora Cornolle 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.