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Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Merab Dvalishvili (-275) vs. Sean O’Malley (+225)

Merab: DK: $9.1k | O’Malley: DK:$7.1k

Lately, it’s been harder rolling down the manual hand-cranked windows of Merab Dvalishvili’s ‘87 Buick Century Station Wagon than winning and defending his bantamweight title. After a fresh coat of Mop & Glo, the woodgrain paneling on the doors still shine like a freshly polished floor. “Here Comes The Sun” fades out, and Merab presses the eject button on the 8-track player, flips the cassette to side B, and the sublime harmonies of John, Paul, George, and Ringo rise above the drone of traffic. Merab is on his way to Newark. The guy he took the belt from wants it back. But he won’t get it. Because Merab still drives the same set of wheels that got him to the dance. Regular oil changes and tune-ups every thirty thousand miles, and the original motor still purrs to life at the first turn of the key. Every fookin’ time. Unfortunately for the bantamweight division, Merab has no plans of trading in the family heirloom, a hand-me-down from Grammy Merab, anytime soon.   

Merab is pronounced (May-rob): Say his name! Admit it. You hate that he’s the Champ. You will never forgive him for beating Sean O’Malley the first time. And I won’t get you started on what he did to Merab’s so-called kryptonite, Umar. Yeah, I thought Umar was going to get him too. But Merab is still standing here screaming, “Fook the Free World!” No one will ever win a decision over him. They will have to separate him from consciousness. You have to drown him in the AB-infested shallow waters because you can’t survive in the deep with him. You have to go full Scuba Steve and strap on an oxygen tank and some flippers to survive with Merab. Fook that, you need a submarine. And we ain’t talking a Titanic sub. We’re talking total darkness and mermaids' bones when we’re talking about deep waters and Merab Dvalishvili.   

Merab is the ultimate ringer, like Johnny Knoxville. You would never expect a guy with Merab’s style to be the best bantamweight in the world. If you brought this guy to the quad as backup for a scrap, everyone would put all their lunch money on the other guys. We’ve never seen anything like Merab. He doesn’t even finish fights. Yet he dominates. He just keeps coming. This guy attempted fifty takedowns against Petr Yan without taking a breath. The best way to describe him is like the zombies in Call of Duty minus the goose-stepping. Let me pop my collar while I quote myself from 2023: “Merab fights like there’s one hundred Merab’s clawing at every opening of your safe house as you frantically try to board them all up. Merab doesn’t die, he multiplies.” For every takedown you stuff, Merab doubles. Until you’re surrounded by a mass of Merabs all shooting double legs on you. Fook Ozempic and going blind and paralyzing your stomach. Watch a Merab fight, and you will lose ten pounds just sitting in your Lazy Boy.

Merab uses the threat of constant takedowns to turn world-class strikers into cardio kickboxers at a Chuze Fitness. In his last bout, he out-Umar'd Umar. Late in the fight, Merab was toying with Umar. Merab plays with his food like he is at the kids’ table on Thanksgiving. “Food fight!” He did the same to O’Malley in the first fight. But never forget the closing seconds of that fight. O’Malley exposed a slight chink in Merab’s armor with a late body shot. Merab was hurt, and had it not come in the final moments, he would have been in serious trouble. The key for Merab in the rematch is to make sure Grammy’s ‘87 station wagon is gassed up and the Mexican blanket is tucked in tight over the back seat. He doesn’t have to change a thing. Not even the dial on the radio. 

Dansky is back for the first time since losing the belt. It looked like Danksy fought sober in the first fight. The doctor ordered a little Sativa and a four-footer for the rematch. Train high, fight high, get high scores. Hit that Method Man and Redman “How High!” My man needs to ride the Pineapple Express to the arena. The man they call “Sugar” came in on some artificial sweetener type-shit in the first fight. His new nickname should be “Aspartame”. He’ll give your ass cancer real quick. Like ass-cancer? You know what I mean. Homie was on some Coke Zero type-shit the first go-round. Danksy gave up six takedowns and ten minutes of control time while being out-struck nearly two to one. But in the end, he bought himself some time on his feet and started to find a little rhythm.   

Oh Sugar, Sugar. Oh, honey, honey. Hit that “Sugar Sugar” by The Archies. Don’t get it twisted. If you have a sweet tooth, you can come catch some hands at the Sugar Factory. O’Malley is still the only MF who can make shit sweet. And you already know ain’t shit sweet! You’ll fook around and catch diabetes from one Danksy right hand. Aljo has been taking insulin shots ever since he lost the belt. All “Sugars” in combat sports have two things: Hand speed and footwork. O’Malley is no exception. His special move is the Chaz Michaels step-back right hand. It looks like he’s on ice skates the way he slides just out of range and unloads his cross on the way out of the pocket.  

Against Merab, Danksy’s trademark Slickback footwork was missing. When he’s on his game, it looks like O’Malley is levitating around the outside. He hits you with that TikTok footwork. They’re currently trying to pass a law in Congress to ban Danksy’s footwork. Yo! Hit that Ghostface “Poisonous Darts!” Iron Man wrote those bars about O’Malley’s hands. He doesn’t have to hit you clean. Once the poison seeps in, it’s lights out. He has thread-the-needle hands, and he will stitch up your face like a baseball. Someone might fook around and throw a four-seamer with your head.  

For the rematch, Dansky needs to get so high he can kiss the sky. I’m talking, give it a fookin’ hickey.   

“Hey! Get a room, buddy!”  

“He ain’t your buddy, pal!”  

O’Malley started to trust himself late in the fight. It looked like he caught a second wind in the fifth round, too. He finished the fight strong. He had more success than Umar did. Also, O’Malley needs to implement some up-the-middle strikes: knees, uppercuts, and snap kicks. And find ways to work them into combos because Merab waits for you to commit before level changing. I might be catching Anderson vs. Vitor vibes... 

Merab is the (-325) favorite, and O’Malley is the (+260) live dog. I can’t go “live-ass” dog. I think Danksy has the best chance of dethroning Merab, but that pace... Nobody can hang with it. O’Malley has to land the Aljo shot. But at those odds, O’Malley has a ton of value. Matter of fact, fook playing O’Malley straight up. The only bet is a TKO/KO. He won’t win a decision. Nobody will. Without a finish, O’Malley will be a bust Fantasy-wise. He will spend too much time defending takedowns to land a high number of significant strikes.   

Last week was the biggest clusterf**k of a card ever. Ever ever? Ever ever. That might have been the worst card of all time. The main event was canceled as Maycee Barber was making the walk to the Octagon. Instead, the main event went down as Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein. So technically... We’re Streaking! The main event dub streak now sits at two. Although I bet on Merab in his last two fights, I picked against him. I won’t do that again. And still... Merab Dvalsihvili via decision. Put it on wax.  

Props

Merab: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+900) Dec (-165) 

O’Malley: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+2800) Dec (+600)

Winner: Merab Dvalishvili | Method: Decision

Jessica Peña (+500) vs. Kayla Harrison (-750)

Peña: DK: $6.5k | Harrison: DK: $9.7k

I’m going to bury the lead... the bet to make is Juliana Peña. I’ve never led with the odds before, but these are howling at the moon. They’re wild. The Champ is a (+455) dog. Kayla Harrison, AKA the female Bo Nickal, is the (-625) favorite. If she runs into a takedown wall (which is likely) she will be stranded on her feet, like Dre and Snoop were Stranded on Death Row. Say What You Say like Em and Dre, but Juliana Peña has that Rudy dog in her. I’m talking a sack on the final play of the game and the first snap of his college career type of Rudy dog. The whole crowd chanting “Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!” Carrying a MF off on someone’s shoulders type of dog in Juliana Peña. 

I still have some of my own words wrapped in foil at the back of my freezer. I take a bite of them every year on the anniversary of when Peña submitted Amanda Nunes. I infamously wrote off Peña in flowing medieval script, giving her zero chance to win that fight. After she won, she tortured me like a Method Man skit and taped my ass shut and kept feeding me and feeding me my own words. Speaking of words. Hit that D12 “Words Are Weapons!” Peña’s words are her best weapons. In a way, she’s the female Colby Covington. She gets opponents off their games by talking shit. Peña talks shit like an Eagles fan after eating horse manure at the Super Bowl parade. She talked her way into a title fight after taking a Hamburglar beating in the rematch with Amanda. “Stop! She’s already dead!” Peña vindicated me in the second fight. Her fight gloves turned back into fingerless biker gloves.   

Please excuse me for quoting myself once again: “She’s the bug you try to step on, but somehow it manages to escape being crushed by fitting between the tread of your shoe and keeps crawling away.” There’s no better way to describe Peña. She's that doodie you have to go full Juvenile backup dancer to shake off. Stand-up-wise, Peña has classic J.I. Jane hands: left, right, left. Peña should come in rocking the basic training fade. In her last fight... I don’t remember her fight against Raquel Pennington. It’s like I got hit with the MiB memory wand. Both fighters landed noinety-two strikes, and Peña won a split decision. The key to this fight will be Peña's guard and the championship rounds. Peña has to get back to her feet and dominate rounds four and five when Harrison slows down.   

Kayla Harrison is built like a WWE Diva. Her style reminds me of a Gain of Function Ronda Rousey. They were both world-class Judo players with Olympic backgrounds. I’m not buying Harrison. I’m canceling after the seven-day trial period. She may be good enough to take advantage of this current lack of bantamweight talent and become the champ. But make no mistake, Amanda would have dominated Kayla. Because when the takedowns aren’t working, Kayla couldn’t strike if she was a Teamster. She couldn't strike with bumper lanes. She looks lonely on her feet. Yo! Hit some Los Lonely Boys! She looks like Will in the empty house on the series finale of Fresh Prince. The only weapon she has on her feet is an overhand left, exactly like Bo Nickal’s. They’re identical left hands. If this fight stays standing, it could turn into Alonzo Mourning vs. Larry Johnson in the Garden with Jeff Van Gundy clinging on to Harrison’s leg. Neither one of these ladies is known for their striking.   

But Harrison is far more dominant on the mat. Like Ronda Rousey, Harrison lacks traditional wrestling takedowns and instead uses the clinch to work Judo throws and trips. She will trip you like Autumn. Harrison will flip you like double-doubles – like Krabby Patties. Flip you like reciprocal fractions. Harrison is an unofficial member of the Flipmode Squad. If she gets hold of you, she’ll have you standing on your head like a goalie with forty saves. Kayla is a better horizontal striker on the mat than she is a vertical striker on the feet. But Harrison’s biggest red flag is the level of competition she has faced. Her record is filled with PTA moms. The best fighter she has faced is Ketlen Vieira. Harrison is 18-1 with six TKOs/KOs and seven subs.   

I would give Harrison a slightly better chance at scoring a finish, most likely a submission. Peña has been finished twice by submission. One came against Germain de Randamie, a kickboxer. The only play that makes sense for Harrison is a sub. Peña will have to out-dog Harrison over twenty-five minutes. This fight will be a desolate wasteland for Fantasy points without a finish. And I don’t see one. I think this one will go the distance. There’s too much value in the dog to pass her up. Harrison has never been in a true Goose and Maverick dogfight. Julianna Peña via decision. On wax.

Props

Peña: TKO/KO (+2000) Sub (+1200) Dec (+1100) 

Harrison: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+140) Dec (+215)

Winner: Julianna Peña | Method: Decision

Kelvin Gastelum (+300) vs. Joe Pyfer (-400)

Gastelum: DK: $7k | Pyfer: DK:$9.2k

This is a repost from two Monts ago. A fight that never happened. 

Separated at birth Nasrat Haqparast is back. The new Hall of Fame inductee, Kelvin Gastelum, is back in the middleweight division. Being an active Hall of Famer is the ultimate flex. Imagine inducting Patrick Mahomes into the Hall of Fame this year and him doing post-fight pressers in the canary yellow jacket every week. That shit would be so cold you could see his breath in one-hundred-degree weather. So cold you catch a chill like a poltergeist bumped into you when he’s nearby. Gastelum was one-half of the greatest title fight in middleweight history against Stylebender. That fight solidified Adesanya’s greatness and says a lot about how good Gastelum was. Was... because we haven’t seen the Gastelum that showed up that night since. He’s been on a gradual decline. But there’s no shame in that. And there’s no shame in becoming a gatekeeper – a term of endearment and not derogatory. That’s what Gastelum will be against the scary striker, Joe Pyfer.    

As dope as Gastelum has been for over a decade, this fight is about Joe Pyfer, aka the Pied Pyfer, aka Pyfer Sutherland, aka Pyfe Dawg. So what’s, so what’s, so what’s the scenario? The scenario is that Joe Pyfer will bag you like grocery clerks. Paper or plastic? That’s why they call him “Bodybagz.” Pyfer is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo brought to life like a Ghostbusters villain. This guy’s fights read like Cliff Notes, mere summaries of actual fights. Highlights of his fights are just gifs. Of his sixteen career fights, half ended in the first round. Such was the case in his most recent appearance against Marc-Andre Barriault. Pyfer left Barriault like Max left Gaethje. Barriault looked like Bob Knight face down in his grave so the world can kiss his ass.   

Pyfer gained notoriety in 2022 on the Contender Series as a right-hand extremist. His right hand is his strength and his weakness. If he touches you with it, you’ll explode like vampires in sunlight. But, sometimes, he is also a little too dependent on his right hand. If Pyfer lost it in a freak farming accident and had to rely on his left hand, he’d walked around with shitty drawers and starve to death. But Pyfer sets it up by changing levels and attacking the body. This guy will fook up your guts quicker than Calcutta street tacos. Pyfer will fook your liver up quicker than handles of moonshine – than swallowing a whole bottle of NSAIDs. When you drop your hands to defend, he tees off on your head like Topgolf.   

But never forget when Jack Hermansson put Joe in his Pyfer and smoked him. Hermansson made smoke rings out of Pyfer. He hotboxed the hoopty with Pyfer like an episode of The Smokebox with B-Real. Homie set off the fire sprinklers, smoking Joe Pyfer. How did Hermansson do it? He survived the first seven minutes. Pyfer hits the wall like Sonny Bono hits trees. He gassed halfway through the second round, and Hermansson picked him apart the rest of the way. The good news for Pyfer is that this is a three-round fight and not five like against Hermansson. Pyfer is 13-3 with noine TKO/KOs and three subs. He has some wrestling in his back pocket and averages a takedown and a half per fifteen minutes. He uses his aggressive stand-up to open level changes.   

Kelvin Gastelum is nearing his expiration date. Sean Brady recently Wayne Brady’d Gastelum during Gastelum’s brief return to the welterweight division. After a win against Daniel Rodriguez, Gastelum stopped taking his O-Lizzo and gained his middleweight figure back. Even though he was only five minutes away from winning the belt at middleweight, I never liked Gastelum at the weight class. He’s built like a welterweight with the discipline of a heavyweight. I always thought it was a lazy move for Gastelum. But Kelvin is still standing here screaming fook the Free World!  

The most noticeable difference between prime Gastelum and the current Gastelum is his hand speed. My man has lost a step like a leg amputee. He used to have hands of stone, but now they’re just stoned. Stoned like people in the Bible. I told his hands to stay away from that Indica. His hands used to have crotch-rocket hand speed, but now people honk, flip him the bird, and hurl abusive language at him when they’re in the fast lane. He has that school-zone-when-children-are-present hand speed. But the biggest knock against Gastelum has always been his lack of finishes. Gastelum hasn’t finished a fight since 2017 against Michael Bisping. The guy calling Gastelum’s fights now.   

Both fighters average just over three and a half SLpM, but Pyfer will have a massive power advantage. Gastelum has never been finished on the feet. He came close against Stylebender but made it to the final bell. Pyfer has a good shot at being the first to stop Gastelum on the feet. Pyfer is the massive (-375) favorite, and Gastelum is the (+295) mangy-ass dog. There is a path to victory. If he can get the fight to the halfway mark, Pyfer will slow down. Pyfer throws with too much power to keep a consistent pace for fifteen minutes. If Pyfer starts to gas, he will look to wrestle. That could stifle his output. And without a finish, he might not justify his high Fantasy price tag. But I think he’ll get out to a big lead and coast to the finish line. Joe Pyfer via decision. On wax. 

Props

Gastelum: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+2500) Dec (+650) 

Pyfer: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+330) Dec (+150)

Winner: Joe Pyfer | Method: Decision

Mario Bautista (+165) vs. Patchy Mix (-190)

Bautista: DK: $7.7k | Mix: DK: $8.5k

Yo! Hit that CCR “I Heard It Through The Grapevine!” I’ve been hearing about Patchy Mix for a few years now and have kept an eye on him in the Bellator promotion. Patchy Mix is 20-1, with his lone loss dating back to the year of the great toilet paper famine of 2020. With a win over the underrated Marion Bautista in his debut, Mix will find himself in the middle of it and on the short track to becoming a new face in the title conversation. But Mario Bautista might be the best fighter Patchy Mix has fought in his career. Bautista is coming in off a dub (suspect, yet still a dub) over the legend Jose Aldo and will show Mix that this here is the big leagues. For Mix, this will be like the first day after high school graduation, and you suddenly realize you’re an adult and have to step into the real world, go to work, and pay bills. We ain’t in Bellator anymore, Patchy.   

Patchy’s last fight was over a year ago against a man named Magomed Magomedov. That’s like fighting a Chris Christopher. Or a Mike Michael. Patchy won’t find any John Johnsons waiting to tap in the UFC. Mix is a slick, supremely technical striker who finishes most of his fights by submission. His style reminds me of a medium-well Nate Diaz. Patchy looks like the Whoopie Goldberg hyena in The Lion King. He has that scavenger look to him. On the feet, Patchy adheres to strict fundamentals. He keeps his lead hand three-quarters extended and uses it to maintain range with his jab and as a defensive mechanism to deflect incoming shots with his lead shoulder. Mix isn’t fast, but he’s precise. And he’s defensively sound. He has those DPOY hands. Patchy won’t try to take your head off with power shots, but instead, his hands tap dance all over your face, just touching you consistently. All you hear is “clickity-clack, clickity-clack" as he boxes your ears off. His fists leave scuff marks on your face like sneakers on basketball courts. 

But Patchy is known more for his submissions. His guillotine is everything Dustin Poirier’s wants to be. This guy throws up gillies like Hov throws up the ROC sign. He throws up gillies like he’s bulimic. Patchy even has standing flying gillies in his back pocket. He jumps gillies like my ol’ lady jumps to conclusions. Like Charles Oliveira, Patchy is a backpacker, and I ain’t talking Dilated Peoples. His body triangle is more like the Bermuda Triangle. There's no coming back from it.  Skill-wise, this guy is legit. The only question is his resume. He’s been dominating the minor leagues. And this ain’t the Savannah Bananas, homie. Mario Bautista will either expose Patchy Mix or validate him as a true contender.  

Don’t let "Super” Mario Bautista’s last performance fool you. This guy is as well-rounded a fighter as there is in the bantamweight division. But after the lackluster Aldo fight, Mario needs to turn into Wario. He needs that flower power so he can shoot fireballs at a MF. He needs to fight like the King Koopa boss music is playing. Hit that shit! He needs to wild out and jump over the flagpole at the end of round one and unlock that bonus ass-kicking level. Mario debuted against Cory Sandhagen, and since that debut loss, he has gone 9-1. This guy is the embodiment of Al Davis’ motto, “Just win, baby!”   

Every path to victory against Bautista is like a level in Battle Toads, a game that was impossible to beat. IYKYK. When fighting Bautista, there are pitfalls around every corner, like boobie (not vulgar) traps in Vietnam. I’m talking viper pits, rat tunnels, and trip wires connected to swinging logs like the one Arnold hit the Predator with. Like old-school Mammys, Bautista won’t hesitate to kick your ass anywhere: at the grocery store in the feminine hygiene aisle, at church in the front pew, and at school in the pickup circle - on Christmas Day, even on your birthday. All you will hear is Mammy singing, “Go, go, go, shawty! It’s your birthday!” Bautista will beat u anywhere, on the feet, on the mat, in the clinch, or on the fookin’ moon. Bautista is good at extending combinations and relocating the fight if the striking isn’t going his way. But he’ll have to be careful of Patchy’s guard if he ends up in the top position. Bautista averages nearly five and a half SLpM and two takedowns per fifteen minutes. He will make this a true MMA fight against Patchy Mix.    

Patchy Mix is the (-175) favorite, and Mario Bautista is the (+155) live-ass dog. These odds are a reflection of Mix’s record and not his resume. Mario has faced far better competition in his career. To me, Mix is an unproven commodity. I think this is a pick ‘em matchup. Mario has two career losses. Both came via finish: one KO and one submission. Patchy has never been finished. I’d give Patchy a better shot at a finish, likely a submission. But I think this one will go the distance. Without any striking stats for Patchy Mix, it’s hard to know what his output will look like should the fight stay standing. But Bautista is a high-output combination striker, and that should make for solid striking stats for both fighters. Patchy has to make me a believer like Imagine Dragons before I buy him as a title threat. There is a ton of value in the dog, Mario Bautista, but I’m going to ride with the Gilly Monster, Patchy Mix via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Bautista: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+2000) Dec (+250)  

Mix: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+240) Dec (+180)

Winner: Patchy Mix | Method: Decision

Vicente Luque (+240) vs. Kevin Holland (-290)

Luque: DK: $7.4k | Holland: DK: $8.8k

Kevin Holland might be a bigger fight fiend than Alex Pereira. Holland turns into Smokey in the pigeon coop if he goes a week without fighting. He turns into Delonte West’s wingman if he doesn’t punch somebody in the face for too long. Holland turns into Tyrone Biggums, sipping Red Balls energy drinks if he doesn’t partake in fisticuffs every day. My man has to go to Dave & Busters and play the UFC game just to stave off withdrawals. Holland will even start a scrap in the communion line. He’ll turn into born-again Nate Diaz, “You’re taking all the wine I worked for, MF!” Holland hasn’t even changed his clothes or had to shave since his last fight against Gunnar Nelson. Gunnar? He didn’t even look like a bow and arrow against Kevin Holland. 

That’s the thing about Kevin Holland. You never know what side of the bed he woke up on. The ass-kicking or ass-kicked side. After what Renier de Ridder did to Bo Nickal, I’ll give Holland a pass for getting submitted by him in the first round. If Holland can stay upright, he’s still long as fook boooooy! He has those director’s cut hands – unabridged hands. His arms are like Marshall’s ladder and can extend to the top of a high rise. “I’m fired up!” Holland looked fired up while boxing Gunnar’s face off and defending takedowns. Homie was so on fire he looked like the Burning Man effigy in that bish. If Holland rolls off the Ikea futon on the ass-kicking side, he should beat what’s left of Vicente Luque. Luque has nasty D’arce/Anaconda chokes but so does Holland. If Holland can use his superior range, Luque’s chin won’t hold up. This is Holland’s fight to lose.  

Yo! Hit that 50 Cent “Wanksta!” Damn, homie. In high school, Vicente was the man, homie. TF happened to him? What’s left of Vicente Luque is equivalent to the ring around the after the water drains. He’s the sliver of soap that's left before you mash it up with all the other slivers to make a big Frankenstein bar. Wait, didn’t Luque win his previous fight? He did. By first round submission. And he has won two of his last three with the one loss coming against the dark horse Joaquin Buckley. But he straight quit in the Buckley fight. I’ll never forgive him for that. And is chin is held on by some duct tape and safety pins. And he still doesn’t move his head. Luque refuses to move his head even an each because then it will take a mile. He has that Ted Williams head movement. Overall, he just hasn’t looked the same on the feet. He lost a step like his prosthetic leg isn’t where he last saw it.  

But Luque still has a mini-Alex Pereira left hook. And nasty leg kicks. If Holland isn’t careful, he’ll have colostomy bags hooked up to his calves real quick after Luque kicks the shit out of them. He’ll be rocking them Brown Sox like a single-A baseball team. And Luque still has chokes. Luque has chokes like the Knicks in game one of the conference finals. He will go full Reggie Miller on your ass and make choke signs to the crowd while you’re sleeping on the canvas. Why hasn’t anybody done that yet? This fight might be a race to see who can lock up an Anaconda first. These guys will be gator rolling each other like a Nat Geo documentary. At least early, I expect Luque to try to press Holland against the cage and get him to his back. If that fails, he will stand and bang. 

Holland is the (-270) favorite, and Luque is the (+220) mangy dog. Even just a couple of years ago, Luque would have likely been the favorite. Prime Vicente Luque was an undercover ass-kicking extraordinaire. I just think he's nearing his shelf-life date. He’s starting to get a little stale. I like playing this one for a finish. The play for Holland is a TKO/KO. And the play for Luque is a submission. He hasn’t won a fight by TKO/KO since 2020 but has won three by submission since then. Kevin Holland via TKO, round three. Wax on, wax off.  

Props

Holland: TKO/KO (+130) Sub (+550) Dec (+275)  

Luque: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+700) Dec (+550)

Winner: Kevin Holland | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Andreas Gustafsson ($7.5k): I don’t know what to think about this guy. He is making his debut after a dominant win on the Contender Series last year. He has had multiple fights canceled in the past several weeks. He is finally stepping in on short notice against Khaos Williams. This dude is a grinder. Space is his enemy. Gustafsson walks through strikes like the Terminator walking through gunfire with the sole intent of getting to the clinch. Gus almost exclusively operates in close quarters. He’s human Velcro, and once he gets hold of you, dirty boxes you into oblivion like old-school Randy Couture. Gus is 11-2 with eight TKOs/KOs and two subs. Khaos Williams has only been finished once (by submission) in his career. But Gus has the style to grind Khaos down over three rounds. The red flag for Gus is if he can’t close the distance and gets stuck in a kickboxing match. He isn’t nearly as effective from range as he is within the pocket.  

Vicente Luque ($7.4k): Luque vs. Holland could turn into a battle of D’arce/Anaconda chokes. But choke-for-choke, I’ll take Luque over Holland. If you play Luque on Saturday night, you will be playing him for a submission finish. I don’t think he will be effective on the feet if he gets stuck trading with the much longer Kevin Holland. Luque will look to get this fight to the mat and lock up a choke during one of the transitions. Luque still has power on the feet and nasty leg kicks, but he will most likely be submission-or-bust. Four of Holland’s six career Ls came via submission.  

Sean O’Malley ($7.2k): Damn, I never thought I’d see Danksy getting close to the Clearance Rack. But here we are. The step-back right hand. That’s the key for O’Malley. And attacking the body early. I expect to see O’Malley rocking the yellow jersey and taking laps around the Octagon for twenty-five minutes, not allowing Merab to get in on his hips. I also expect to see a high volume of up-the-middle attacks, knees, uppercuts, and snap kicks to deter level changes. We’ve seen Merab before rolling around the mall on a pair of Heelys after getting hurt on the feet. Never forget the Marlon Moraes fight. Without a TKO/KO finish, O’Malley will likely be a Fantasy bust as he was in the first match, landing only forty-seven significant strikes. But O’Malley had Merab hurt in the closing seconds of the first fight... 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Bruno Silva ($6.9k): I love Bruno Silva’s opponent, Joshua Van. I think Van will win the fight. His power is unrivaled in the flyweight division. But Bruno Silva is a little MF. I think the odds are a little off on this one. This fight should be a lot closer than Vegas suggests. Van has been knocked out recently. Charles Johnson KO’d Van last year with a nasty uppercut combination. Up the middle is how to beat Joshua Van. And Bruno Silva has plenty of flying knees and uppercuts that can change the tide. Bruno won’t put up big Fantasy points without a finish, but I think he will have more than just a puncher’s chance against Van. The Clearance Rack is filled with options this week, and Bruno provides the best shot at scoring an upset finish. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Mario Bautista (+165): I changed my original pick for Bautista vs. Mix. I’ve gone back and forth all week. I think this fight will come down to the final round. Bautista can compete with Mix anywhere the fight goes. Bautista also has the big fight experience under the brightest lights that Mix doesn’t have. Bautista is coming off a win against the legend Jose Aldo. He also has recent wins over Ricky Simon and Da’Mon Blackshear. All three of those guys are better than anyone Mix has fought within the Bellator promotion. Bautista is as well-rounded a fighter as there is in the bantamweight division. He is a true sleeper, and this will be a nip/tuck fight that will likely be decided by the judges.   

Julianna Peña (+500): I’ve struck out lately with dogs with huge numbers next to their names. But I’m still standing here screaming, “Fook the Free World!” Kayla Harrison is a specialist. A top control specialist. If Amanda Nunes couldn't finish Peña after racking up six takedowns and nearly twelve minutes of control time in the rematch, I don’t see Harrison finishing her either. The championship rounds will be Peña's time to shine. We know she has the Resident Evil zombie dog in her, and I’m not sure Harrison has it. Harrison has never been in a war inside the cage. Peña will have to come back from an early deficit, but I think her aggression and refusal to lose will give her a shot to steal this fight late.   

Sean O’Malley (+225): I call O’Malley “Danksy,” but he has reportedly put the herbal essence down for this fight. He has changed everything about his training camp and even simulates fight night with ring entrances and walkout music. He won’t even be dying his hair the color of Fruit Loops for this fight. Also, he has one of the best walkout songs in the game, “Superstar” by Lupe Fiasco and Matthew Santos. If you are what you say you are, a superstar, then have no fear. Sean O’Malley is here. The only way to defeat Merab is by knocking him out. No one will win a decision against him. And O’Malley has the one-punch power and overall slick striking to be the one to do it. He comes from a solid fight camp, and they will have a new game plan for the rematch. I don’t expect to see the same fight as we did almost a year ago.   

Pick ‘Em

Bruno Silva (+425) vs. Joshua Van (-600)  

Winner: Joshua Van 

Method: Decision 

Azamat Murzakanov (-625) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+430)  

Winner: Azamat Murzakanov 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Serghei Spivak (-140) vs. Waldo Acosta (+115)  

Winner: Serghei Spivak  

Method: Decision 

Khaos Williams (-185) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (+160) 

Winner: Andreas Gustafsson 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

MarQuel Mederos (-205) vs. Mark Choinski (+175) 

Winner: MarQuel Mederos 

Method: Decision 

Ariane Lipski (+410) vs. Cong Wang (-585) 

 Winner: Cong Wang 

Method: Decision 

Jeka Saragih (+390) vs. Joo Sang Yoo (-550) 

Winner: Joo Sang Yoo 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Quillan Silkilld (-575) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+400) 

Winner: Quillan Silkilld 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.