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Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Ilia Topuria (-490) vs. Charles Oliveira (+355)

Topuria: DK: $9.3k | Oliveira: DK:$6.9k

When I think of Ilia Topuria, I think of that famous picture of an elk cruising around in the snow, going about doing elk shit (foraging and shitting in the woods and whatnot), with the decapitated head of another elk tangled in its antlers. In my mind, I see Ilia Topuria. I see Ilia Topuria at a baseball game, obstructing the view of those sitting behind him; I see him at the state fair riding the Tilt-A-Whirl, the kids spooked more at the sight of Ilia than the ride; I see him attending the Met Gala, turning heads on the red carpet with Alexander Volkanovski’s ass impaled on one horn, and Max Holloway's ass on the other. They call Ilia “El Matador,” but he’s more like “El Toro.” He’s the human embodiment of the Texas Longhorn’s logo. He’ll roll up to the second window (life was never the same after they stopped using the first window to pay), looking like Boss Hog with bull horns mounted on the hood of his ‘76 caddy, parts and pieces of former opponents dangling from them like morbid Christmas ornaments.   

And when I think of Ilia Topuria, I can’t help but think of Josh Emmett, the only man to survive the Running of Ilia on the cobbled streets of Pamplona. WTF is that guy made of? He could survive traveling through the Van Allen belt. I bet it’s hemp. Emmett is made of hemp. He’s like the lone survivor of a plane crash. He parachuted out that bish like D.B. Cooper. Emmett lasted longer than Volkanovski and Max combined against Ilia. Two things I never thought I would see in my lifetime: World Peace and Max Holloway getting knocked the f**k out. So, you’re saying there’s a chance of world peace!? (Checks news feed) Nope. Ilia Gaethje’ed Max. Max’s fall to the mat felt like an eternity. Maybe he never stopped falling. Perhaps he’s sitting next to Kevin Randleman and Kimbo Slice on a plane, eternally waiting for clearance to take off.   

What do the MMA gods get the man who has KO’d everyone? A new division. There were no more GOATS to impale in the featherweight division, so Ilia moved on to new pastures and the lightweight division, where the stillness of the horizon is interrupted by the outlines of grazing GOATs the likes of Oliveira, Gaethje, and Makhachev (should he return one day). This isn’t Topuria’s first UFC bout at 155 pounds. The only time Topuria came close to losing was when he fought Jai Herbert on short notice at lightweight and ate a head kick in the first round. A subsequent “Oh, shit!” takedown preserved Ilia’s perfect record that night. He went on to land his trademark combination (liver shot-left hook) in the second round and left Herbert on the mat in a tangle of elbows and knees. That’s how he leaves most people. Like marionettes petulantly discarded.  

That’s because you have to pull pins from Ilia’s hands like grenades. Ilia has U.S. foreign policy hands: Nothing but bombs. Ilia’s hands could spark WWIII. His power comes from perfect technique. There is no fat on Ilia’s punches. Everything is tight like nuts and bolts – no wasted motion. His left hook is short and compact and could be considered the miniature version of Alex Pereira’s. And he can turn any party into Brown Panty Night with the liver shot. He’ll turn those fight shorts into UPS shorts real fookin’ quick. What can brown do for you? He punctuates the liver shot with an overhand Lizzie Borden ax chop. 

Ilia Topuria took an ax 

And gave Volkanovski forty whacks 

And when he saw what he had done 

He gave Max Holloway forty-one 

There’s even a nursery rhyme about this MF. Don’t sleep on Ilia’s wrestling/grappling. Ilia is a dominant wrestler/grappler. The scary thing is, he might even be better on the mat than he is on the feet. He won’t shy away from Charles Oliviera’s legendary guard. Ilia is excellent at getting inside on taller, rangy fighters like Oliveira and landing combinations. That also provides him with opportunities to level change.  

But Ilia will have to tread lightly from the top position because “Do Bronx” is the Barry Bonds of submitting people. Nobody has more subs (16) inside the Octagon than Charles Oliveira. He’s the Sub God. The Sub Zeus, if you will, sitting upon the throne of Mt. Olympus and ruling over the lesser submission gods. Homer wrote the Submission Iliad about Charles Oliveira. If Charles gets your back, just tap and save yourself some time. It’s the most valuable commodity, and you’ll never get it back. This guy wrote the Back Mount Bible. As soon as Charles takes your back, you ol’ lady starts dating again. It’s a wrap. The only knock against Oliveira’s grappling is that he tends to spend too much time on his back sub-hunting and not getting back to his feet. That can cost him rounds.   

We’re all here for the striking, though. Oliveira’s special move is nearly losing every fight he wins. The only thing Oliveira fears is missing out – FOMO. He can’t let anybody lose without getting in on it first. He’s like the guy who has to sip the King’s wine to make sure it’s not poisoned. He has to take a sip of defeat before serving you a full glass of it. And that’s why Oliviera has more comebacks than Meek Mill. Huh? Oliveira has one comeback per year like Easter. He was one follow-up punch or kick away from being 10-35 instead of 35-10 for his career. Although Oliviera’s striking is dangerous, it’s also dangerous defensively. Dangerous to his health. Charles has a bumper car chin. And he holds it high in the air above the clouds. He has that mile high chin. His chin catches random nosebleeds. After fifteen years of wars inside the Octagon, Oliveira’s chin is on its last leg. In nearly every fight, Oliveira laces up the Heelys and takes a lap around the mall.  

Oliveira’s tall, rigid posture compromises him defensively, but it also makes him dangerous with all his limbs. His trademark move is the standing knee. He’ll take your head clean off and turn you into William Wallace real quick. And he has some of the shortest, longest punches you’ll see. His punches are so straight that they’re quick to the target while maintaining distance. Up-the-middle attacks, including the Anderson Silva snap kick, will be the key for Oliveira on the feet. Statistically, Topuria is the higher output fighter, averaging over four and a half SLpM compared to Oliveira’s three and a half. Ilia is more of a short combination striker, and Oliveira is more of a one-punch striker.   

Topuria is the huge (-410) favorite, and Oliviera is the (+320) live-ass dog. Charles is a massive lightweight. The size difference will be glaring. Topuria won’t be able to bully Oliveira around like he is used to doing to featherweights. But the stat to keep an eye on is Oliveira’s fifty-six percent takedown defense. The way to defeat his guard is with heavy ground and pound. And Ilia has plenty of that. He didn’t hesitate to engage with Ryan Hall on the mat. And if you don’t know who that is, Google that shit. I think there is value in a decision, but I think someone will get got. I like playing Ilia for a TKO/KO and Charles for a classic club-and-sub.    

Tong Po got us back into the main event dub column last week when he picked apart Jamahal Hill for twenty-five minutes. This week, I can’t help but see Oliveira falling in a Max-like fashion. Oliveira is just too hittable, and it’s only a matter of time until Topuria lands that Lizzie Borden right hand. Ilia Topuria via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.   

Props

Topuria: TKO/KO (-175) Sub (+500) Dec (+600) 

Oliveira: TKO/KO (+1100) Sub (+7500) Dec (+1400)

Winner: Ilia Topuria | Method: TKO Rd.3

Alexandre Pantoja (-230) vs. Kai Kara-France (+190)

Pantoja: DK: $9k | Kara-France: DK: $7.2k

It’s not every day that you find out your Toja Cat is a dog. Alexandre Pantoja has adopted the entire flyweight division. He has son’ed them all. He has a whole division of dependents that he writes off every April 15. This guy could field a football team with all his flyweight sons. Pantoja, AKA Toja Cat, is the most underrated Champion. In his previous bout, the UFC brought in a ringer to try to beat him. They’re hiring contract killers like Carole Baskin to try to take out Toja Cat. They might have to hire the homie with the bowl cut in No Country for Old Men to take out Pantoja. They might have to hire Agents 47, 48,49, and 50 to end Toja’s reign. But there are still two names left before Pantoja has officially cleaned out the division: Kai Kara-France and Manel Kape. Kara-France, come on down. You are the next contestant on Get Your Ass Kicked by Toja Cat. 

The thing about Pantoja is that he is beatable. Almost every one of his fights comes down to the fifth round. Chances are, he out-dogged your favorite dog like Brandon Moreno (three times). Toja is the third member of Tha Dogg Pound. When it comes to the championship rounds, Toja Cat is clutch like manual transmissions. Clutch like little purses. Tyrese Haliburton with time running out type of clutch (before blowing his Achilles). Freddy Fookin’ Freeman in the playoffs. Toja has more last-round game-winning drives than Tom Brady. You should see this guy run the two-minute drill in the fifth round. Even when he looks completely gassed, Toja always finds energy for one more double leg. Timing is the key to Toja’s level changes. They have perfect timing, like a false flag. I'm talking the Gulf of Tonkin type of timing. Toja Cat baits you into a firefight and slips under your punches. Sometimes, I suspect he fakes being more tired than he really is to goad you into letting your hands go so he can drop down on you.   

On the feet, Toja is a Mike D’Antoni fast break striker. He doesn’t know what a half-court set is. Run and gun; that’s Pantoja on the feet. There's no jabbing and establishing range and dancing around the outside with Toja Cat. He just gets in your face from the opening bell and pushes you backward into the cage so he can get to your legs. There’s never a time during the fight that he’s not thinking about a takedown. Kai Kara-France rocks an eighty-eight percent takedown defense like crispy back-to-school clothes. He has faced some solid grapplers over the years, but Kara-Fance has never faced somebody as relentless on the mat as Toja Cat.   

Whereas Toja turns into Tom Brady in the final round, Kara-France turns into anybody with a star on their helmet. He’s the opposite of Toja in crunch time. He turns into Kai Kara-Belgium when the fight is on the line. My man shows up to the post-fight presser dressed like an NBA player, clad in lederhosen with suspenders and wooden shoes. I don’t mean to shit on Kai because he is a dope little fighter. But I’ve always thought he was missing that next-level dog. He has that Westminster topiary poodle dog in him – that toy dog that Betty’s carry in purses. And I need that bite-the-mailman-in-the-ass type of dog. I need that dog that got Willie Jones, aka Craig’s dad, by the ass type of dog. Kai Kara-Belgium is the type to pass up the last shot. I need that Ray Allen in the corner set on fully auto, ready to scorn all the fair-weather Heat fans who left the game early type of dog. When the chips are down, Kai tends to fold. And Kenny Rogers already told ya, you gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em. 

But don’t get it twisted. Kara-France can throw hands. He is the Fall Out Boy to Volkanovski’s Radioactive Man. He looks like someone left Volk in the dryer too long without a dryer sheet. Kai switches stance and attacks with inside/outside low kicks while setting up quick two to three-punch combinations. He will be the far more technical striker against Toja. The power will be about even, but Kara-France is better at setting up his power. The big question is Kara-France's gas tank and ability to force scrambles when he ends up on his back. Because he will end up on his back. Kara-France has been finished six times in his career, and three came by submission. Can he get back to his feet without exposing his back? The fight hinges on that question.   

Toja Cat will be the (-265) favorite, and Kara-France will be the (+215) live dog. It won’t be easy for Toja to get Kai to the mat consistently. I think Toja will have to rely on his striking a little more than he is used to in this one. The play for Toja is a late finish, most likely a submission. The play for Kara-France is a decision. He can steal rounds on the feet, but I don’t see him finishing Toja Cat. Alexandre Pantoja via rear-naked choke, round four. On wax.  

Props

Pantoja: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+225) Dec (+175) 

Kara-France: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+3000) Dec (+400)

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.4

Brandon Royval (-105) vs. Joshua Van (-115)

Royval: DK: $8.2k | Van: DK:$8k

This is an unexpected banger. Joshua Van is one of the rising killers in the flyweight division. He hasn’t even digested the last ass he kicked on the previous PPV, and he’s already ready for more. Too much ass-kicking is never enough for Joshua Van. There’s an old myth that says you should wait at least thirty minutes after kicking an ass before kicking another one, or you might cramp up. Well, you can call Joshua Van a Myth Buster. He’s stepping in on short notice for the Pull-out King, Manel Kape. Treyvon Diggs could learn a thing or two from Manel Kape. Anywho, this is a massive leap up in competition for Van, who will go from fighting on undercards to the brink of a title shot with a win over “Crown” Royval. This is a crazy stand-up style matchup – power vs. volume. This is a Fight Night main event caliber fight right here. 

Nobody in the flyweight division hits harder than Joshua Van. Van hits like being run over by one. They use Van’s hands to mine lithium and cobalt. They use his hands to drill for oil. He has those There Will Be Blood hands. And There Will Be Blood, like the club scene in Blade when he steps into the Octagon. Joshua Van reminds me of Rodtang, one of the greatest Muay Thai fighters of all time who fights for One FC, the best combat sports promotion not named UFC. Rodtang possesses the power of a light heavyweight and a chin fashioned from the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs. The same is true of Joshua Van. Joshua Van has so much power he skipped two grades in grade school. And he has Rodtang’s freakshow chin. Van’s chin is a roadside attraction on Highway 66 in Arizona. He eats punches like an episode of Man vs. Food. Defensively, he’s like the T-1000, walking through everything thrown at him. Unless it’s a Charles Johnson uppercut. CJ is the only man in eight UFC fights to beat Joshua Van. 

But Van isn’t all chin; he has hands, too. Van has those Team Lift, heavy hands. His specialty is attacking the body. His hands leave no meat on the bone like piranhas. When Van gets to shoe-shining the body, he’ll leave you looking like skinny 50 Cent in that movie nobody watched. Just watching Joshua Van destroy livers makes me shit my pants. You have to bust out the Spray ‘n Wash just watching Van fight. No chonies are safe around this guy. Life is a Hershey Highway, and you’re gonna ride it all night long like you have a Fast Pass when you fight Van. Over three rounds, Van batters you like cakes and leaves you with internal bleeding. Van is 14-2 with seven TKO/KOs and two subs. Check it: Van averages over eight SLpM compared to Royval’s four and a half. That's the highest striking rate I’ve ever seen for a guy with eight measurable fights.   

I’m a little shook after seeing that stat. I thought Royval was the higher output striker. Mostly because Royval never stops moving and throwing half-speed punches. He just keeps touching you, creating a forcefield of punches that are hard to circumvent. I call him “Crown” Royval, but soon you might have to finally crown Royval. I’m finally realizing this kid is good enough to be the champ. Royval’s official nickname is “Raw Dawg,” so you know he’s a risk taker. And like Alec Baldwin, this kid ain’t shooting any blanks. If you look at his record, Royval only loses to champions. He had Toja Cat on the ropes late in the fifth round of their title fight back in ‘23. Since then, Royval has won two in a row and is coming in off a massively impressive dub over the grappling boogeyman, Tatsuro Taira.  

Royval’s specialty is activity, staying active every second of the fight. He throws hands like the wavy-arm man outside the fifteen-minute oil change spot. Although he lacks power, Royval is willing to roll the dice like Ashy Larry on every exchange. Royval will go all in and bet on himself every time he lets his hands go. He's the MMA Pete Rose. Dana might hit this kid with a lifetime. Young, dumb, and full of ones. And one-twos. That’s Royval’s style. He keeps short two-punch combinations on repeat with the ten-second anti-skip button activated. Royval’s motto: You miss every punch you don’t throw. You can’t take strikes with you when you die. He has those surplus hands. Royval’s strike volume causes inflation. He has more combinations than a high school locker room.   

Royval is 17-7 with four TKO/KOs and noine subs. Three of those subs came inside the Octagon, including one against Kai Kara-France. But I don’t see this fight going to the mat. Van rocks an eighty-one percent takedown defense similar to Kara-France's. This will be a stand-up banger. The odds will tell you how dangerous this fight is for Royval. Van is the slight favorite, returning (-115). Royval will return (-105). The big fight experience belongs to Royval. He has shared the Octagon with the current and previous champs, Moreno and Pantoja. And he fought both of them twice. But the power difference will be glaring. I wish this fight was five rounds. If Royval can work in some grappling, he can submit Van. But Van will be the finishing threat on the feet. Damn, I’m stuck on this one. Brandon Royval via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Royval: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+700) Dec (+200) 

Van: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+1600) Dec (+165)

Winner: Brandon Royval | Method: Decision

Beneil Dariush (-105) vs. Renato Moicano (-115)

Dariush: DK: $7.8k | Moicano: DK: $8.4k

*Repost from UFC 311 

Yo! Hit that Sout Park “Bryan Boitano!” What would Money Moicano do? If he were here right now? He’d get knocked down, then choke you out; that’s what Money Moicano’d do! Money Moicano could have Elon Musk’s bank account, and he still couldn’t afford to lose. He can’t get approved for a loan to purchase an L. On the rare occasions Moicano does take an L, the Repo men confiscate that shit for failure to make payments. But Beneil Dariush will offer to co-sign a shiny new L for Moicano when the two enter into fisticuffs on Saturday night. This one right here is a Grappler’s Delight and another banger on a stacked card.   

Renato Moicano has turned into a sleeper. His career has gotten a second wind. This guy is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division. Moicano has IMF (International Monetary Fund) top control; he weighs on you like debt. Moicano gets on top of you and submits you with knowledge. Shoots a double leg: “The Federal Reserve is neither federal nor a reserve.” Advances to the full mount: The six entities that hold stock in the Fed include the Warburgs, Morgans (J.P.), Rothchilds, Rockefellers, Kuhn Loeb’s, and Goldman Sachs.” Locks in a rear-naked choke: “The Fed is a central bank like the Bank of England, and together they dominate the world market.” Gets his hand raised: Invest in Bitcoin, a non-centralized currency that cannot be controlled by the globalists.” Moicano kicks ass for the people! Moicano didn’t have a single dub via TKO/KO until I pointed that out before the Jalin Turner fight. Now he has two in a row. Moicano is a submission Basquiat with throwback ground and pound. He looks to create damage before he starts sub-hunting. Lately, he hasn’t needed to choke anyone out because he has been able to dominate with strikes from the top position. But don’t get it twisted like Zig Zags; Moicano has more chokes than the CIA. All ten of his career submissions came via rear-naked choke.  

But can Moicano survive on the feet? Benny Dariush will have a massive power advantage. Moicano’s major malfunction is his hand speed. His hands are expired and all lumpy by the time they reach the target. His hands appreciate and yield a 10% return on investment by the time they reach the target. Moicano isn’t a complete TLC scrub on the feet, but there aren’t too many people in the division that he can out-strike.  

Beneil Dariush is limitless. He represents the abstract, the ethereal. He’s a grappling-free spirit. He's the MMA Jeff Goldblum. Benny Dariush out-grappled the guy who out-grappled Tsarukyan, Mateusz Gamrot. “Yeah, but Tsarukyan KO’d Dariush.” I know, I know. I’m just saying that Dariush has the most creative grappling you’ll see. He still wears Tony’s arm around his neck like a lucky rabbit’s foot. He makes wishes on Tony’s arm like a monkey’s paw. This Tony Ferguson hand keeps crushing my hard taco! Yo! Hit that Eminem “Underground!” This guy’s ground game is like he lives underground.   

The Last Boy Scout, Benny will tie you in knots that get tighter the more you struggle to get out of them. Simultaneously attacking a kneebar and armbar is diabolical work. Benny will use the crucifix position to defend takedowns. Most people are taught to color between the lines, but Benny blurs the lines and colors the whole page, the table, and the fookin’ wall. Inverted guard, rubber guard, butterfly guard; Benny flows between guards and makes it nearly impossible to control him while avoiding submissions and reversals. 

On the feet, Benny has one weapon: A twelve-year-old Andy Reed Punt, Pass, and Kick overhand left. His left hand left Rogan, Anik, and DC in shambles after he dropped it on Drakkar Klose. Benny looks down at the mat and wings left hands from the fringe of the pocket. If he lands, he can sleep anyone. But Benny’s problem is setting it up. He doesn’t have technical, traditional, combination striking. He’s a puncher, not a boxer, a kicker, not a kickboxer. But he will have a slight advantage on the feet against Moicano.   

The numbers: Moicano is 20-5 with two TKO/KOs and ten subs, and Benny is 22-6 with five TKO/KOs and eight subs. Moicano will be the higher output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM compared to Benny’s just over three and a half. But Moicano’s output relies more on ground and pound. Both fighters average just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Benny rocks an eighty percent takedown defense compared to Moicano’s seventy-two. Moicano will be the (-210) favorite, and Benny will be the (+170) live-ass dog. This is a case of two fighters heading in opposite directions. Moicano is trending up, and Benny is down. Benny has lost two in a row, while Moicano  won four in a row and six of his last seven before taking that last-minute fight against Makhachev. But there isn’t anybody Benny can’t out-grapple other than the Champ. Although both are dangerous on the mat, I like playing this one for a decision.  I’ve just lost some faith in Benny. But fook it! Beneil Dariush via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Dariush: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+800) Dec (+250)  

Moicano: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+350) Dec (+350)

Winner: Beneil Dariush| Method: Decision

Payton Talbott(+160) vs. Felipe Lima (-185)

Talbott: DK: $7.5k | Lima: DK: $8.7k

Dustin from Stranger Things is all grown up and now a bad-ass, promising UFC prospect. Payton Talbott looks like Dustin met David Goggins and got his life in order with twenty-four-hour burpees sessions. And Felipe Lima looked like future Champion material in his first two UFC appearances. He debuted on short notice against Muhammad Naimov and pulled off a third-round submission. Then he turned Miles Johns into A Quarter of a Mile John. Lima snatched the plurals from Miles Johns's name with a dominant three-round decision. This matchup bumped off Jack Hermansson vs. Brazilian Deebo, Gregory Rodrigues. So, you know it will be a banger. 

This kid, Payton Talbott, is Max Holloway, the generic version. He set the bantamweight Contender Series striking record with one hundred forty-five significant strikes in his contract-earning appearance. His punches go directly to the SPAM folder. He has Max Holloway output, complete with darts like pool halls. The dart punch is a sneaky rear-hand punch from a squared stance that allows you to simultaneously exit the pocket through the back door. Talbott’s stature/posture/stance is like a Chuck/Max hybrid. He throws from his chest like Chuck and peruses with volume like Max. He’s an amalgamation. But he’s all offense and zero defense. Offensively, Talbott is Bodhi swimming out to catch the tsunami wave, knowing he ain’t coming back. Talbott has Ivy League offense and junior college drop-out defense.    

In his previous bout against Raoni Barcelos, Talbott got exposed on the mat. He has “don’t threaten me with a good time” takedown defense and get-ups like old people in the shower. If his life depended on him scrambling back to his feet, all his homies would be rocking mural t-shirts the next day. And that is a bad look going into a fight against another slick grappler – a younger, more athletic version of Raoni Barcelos, Felipe Lima. 

Lima is a bad mother-shut-your-mouth. He has no weaknesses. Slick striking and dominant wrestling/grappling. His takedowns are closer to Toja Cat’s than they are Mackenzie Dern’s. What makes him dangerous is that he doesn’t have to depend on either one. He can fight to his opponent’s weaknesses. Tailor-made ass whoopins. Made-to-order - Lima doesn’t make the ass whoopin’ until you order it. Yo! Hit that Soul II Soul “Back to Life!” How ever do you need it? How ever do you want it? The path to victory for Lima is paved with gold bricks and outlined with singing munchkins - on the mat. Talbott was taken down eight times in his previous bout. Lima can copy Barcelos’ work and turn it in as his own.   

Lima will be the (-200) favorite, and Talbott will be the (+170) stray dog. This is a tough matchup for Talbott. He will have to learn on the job how to wrestle/grapple. On the feet, his nearly seven SLpM volume will cause Lima problems, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to let his hands go while worrying about takedowns. Fantasy-wise, this could be a low-output fight. Technically, this fight will be dope. But technical scraps don’t make for good Fantasy matchups. This is one of those. There’s value in a late Lima submission, but I like playing this one for a decision. Talbott couldn’t get back to his feet against Barcelos, but he showed excellent submission defense. Felipe Lima via decision. Wax on, wax off.  

Props

Talbott: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1600) Dec (+450)  

Lima: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+500) Dec (+110)

Winner: Felipe Lima | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Hyder Amil ($7.7k): A milli, a milli, a milli. Hyder “A Milli” Amil is an undercover savage. He’s the guy who beat the human Ambien pill, William Gomis. And he did it by landing one hundred fifteen significant strikes. Amil averages nearly seven SLpM with four measurable bouts. He’s far from the most technical striker, but Amil has Acme anvil, heavy hands, and fights like he left his phone unlocked on the kitchen counter. He’ll be up against a more technical striker in Jose Delgado, but win or lose, this matchup should produce solid striking stats from both fighters. Delgado averages six and a half SLpM and has the aggressive style to make this a high-output fifteen-minute firefight.  

Viacheslav Borshchev ($7.6k): This is an all-or-nothing pick. Terrance “& Phillip” McKinney will either run over Borshchev and submit him in the first round, or Borschchev will survive and TKO/KO finish McKinney in the second or third. McKinney is the definition of a five-minute man. Win or lose, after the first five minutes, McKinney rolls over and grabs a cig. He’s the ultimate fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants, kill-or-be-killed fighter. Borschev’s major malfunction is his takedown and submission defense. He is famous for trademarking the Rigor Mortis guard from his back. But if he can survive McKinney’s onslaught, he will dominate on the feet. Borshchev is a little dynamo kickboxer with nasty body and head combinations. He is almost guaranteed to kickbox McKinney’s face…off. If he can survive the Final Destination opening scene, that is Terrance McKinney in the first round.   

Kai Kara-France (7.2k): In three championship fights that have gone the distance, Alexandre Pantoja gave up over one hundred significant strikes in each. And Pantoja was out-struck in two of the three. Barring an early stoppage, Kara-France will likely eclipse the one-hundred-strikes mark as well. Kara-France might have the best takedown defense in the division. This is a low salary cap hit for a high striking total upside. I don’t see Pantoja running through Kara-France. This should be a typical Toja Cat twenty-five-minute sprint. Although I’m picking Pantoja by submission, Kara-France has the power and all-around game to make this a close scrap.   

 $6k Clearance Rack

Charles Oliveira ($6.9k): The man with the most submissions in UFC history is on the clearance rack with a “Consume Within 24 Hours” sticker. This price tag reflects Oliveira’s inability to defend on his feet. He’s just way too easy to hit and often cuts a rug in the middle of the fight after eating a bomb. But his offensive striking is tailor-made to defeat Topuria. Oliveira is long and has excellent kicks like the man who nearly KO’d Topuria, Jai Herbert. Oliveira’s up-the-middle attacks (snap kicks and standing knees) will find a home on Topuria’s chin at some point, barring an early finish. Topuria often wades forward with his head down, looking at the mat. Those are the moments Oliveira can land knees and kicks. Topuria’s weakness is on the feet down the middle. There is a path to victory for Charles, and should he pull off the upset, he will flip the Fantasy board upside down.     

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Viacheslav Borshchev (+140): Borshchev will be more like a (+800) mangy-ass dog in the first round. But should he survive, he will become the (-800) favorite. This is the perfect matchup to live bet if it’s available in your state. After the first round, go all in on Borschev. His grappling is borderline awful, which explains his underdog status. But Terrance McKinney is almost guaranteed to fall off a cliff like Gavin Escobar after the first round. Never forget the time Lil Nazim X Sadykhov 10-8'd Borshchev in the first round, only for Borshchev to come back and win the second and third rounds and pull out a draw. Survive and advance is the key for Borshchev. 

Jack Hermansson (+185): Hermansson will be in the same position as Viacheslav Borshchev: Survive and advance. Hermansson will be up against one of my favorite current fighters, Brazilian Deebo Gregory Rodrigues. In his previous bout, Deebo had nearly finished Jared Cannonier in the first round. But Deebo couldn’t close the deal. Instead, he faded heavily in the ensuing rounds and was ultimately finished in the fourth. Hermansson is the type of fighter who gets stronger as the fight progresses. In his previous bout, Hermansson beat the highly touted Joe Pyfer after getting nearly the entirety of his ass kicked in the first round. But he came back and slowly and methodically picked Pyfer apart for the final three rounds. Hermansson won’t have the extra rounds to make up for an early deficit, but he can win this fight by using his range and nonstop pace to out-point Deebo.   

 Beneil Dariush (-105): I like picking plus-money dogs, but I’m having a hard time finding legitimate paths to victory for some of the bigger dogs. I picked Dariush to win this fight because of his win over Mateusz Gamrot. Benny out-grappled Gamrot, who is widely considered the best grappler at lightweight, not named Makhachev. Benny put on a Master Class of takedown defense and reversals. I call him The Last Boy Scout because Benny will tie you in knots and have you bent out of shape like a clothes hanger. He’ll have you in Kama Sutra positions you didn’t even know you could achieve. Moicano is more of a power grappler with heavy top control and ground and pound. And Dariush is more of a free spirit on the mat. He is the master of several types of guards and is a far more creative grappler. I don’t know who has the edge on the feet, but I think if there is anything left in Dariush after two straight TKO/KO losses, he will have the edge on the mat.   

Pick ‘Em

Gregory Rodrigues (-225) vs. Jack Hermansson (+185)  

Winner: Gregory Rodrigues 

Method: Decision 

Hyder Amil (+135) vs. Jose Delgado (-165)  

Winner: Jose Delgado 

Method: Decision 

Viviane Araujo (+205) vs. Tracy Cortez (-245)  

Winner: Viviane Araujo 

Method: Decision 

Terrance McKinney (-170) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+140) 

Winner: Viacheslav Borshchev 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Jackson McVey (+110) vs. Chris Ewert(-130) 

Winner: Chris Ewert 

Method: Decision 

Jhonata Diniz (-330) vs. Alvin Hines (+265) 

Winner: Jhonata Diniz 

Method: Decision 

Niko Price (+1000) vs. Jacobe Smith (-2200) 

Winner: Jacobe Smith 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.