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Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Dustin Poirier (+112) vs. Max Holloway (-135)

Poirier: DK: $8k | Max: DK:$8.2k

The indoor temperature is expected to reach four hundred degrees. Each fan in attendance will receive flame-retardant (not an insensitive slur) suits and a pair of gasoline boots – stadium giveaways sponsored by Kingsford. Rumors are swirling online that Mark Coleman, one of the Godfathers of Ground & Pound, will be front row and chest naked, wearing only boardshorts and flip flops. Also expected to be in attendance is the star of the new AI-produced Ghost Rider Marvel film, Paul Walker. Detractors (haters if you want to be a Richard about it) of the event are raising concerns about the glorification of immolation. Such a display might begin a disturbing trend among impressionable youth - young boys and girls with hopes and dreams of becoming the next Dustin Poirier or Max Holloway.   

Hell in an Octagon: Although the title isn’t official, it is apt and has been adopted by the masses across all social media platforms. Who set the world on fire? Dustin and Max set the world on fire. This fight is a rare rubber match in which one fighter has won the previous two scraps. Yet everybody wants it like the last laugh. The hope is that, after the fight, win or lose, Dustin Poirier will postpone his impending retirement and turn the BMF title fight into a seven-fight series. It’s impossible to imagine what a possible fight seven, winner takes all, bout would look like.   

Dustin Poirier is responsible for twenty-five percent of Max Holloway’s career losses. Poirier is only one of two men to ever finish Max. And Dustin is the only man to ever force Max to say, “Maté!" He submitted Max in 2012, Max’s UFC debut, with an arm-triangle. Had the second meeting in 2019 been six rounds instead of five, Max might have pulled off the comeback after Dustin wobbled him multiple times early in the fight. The trilogy will be concluded in Piorier’s hometown, NOLA. I better see Lil Weezy, and I ain’t talking Lizzo after standing up, wearing a Herb Jones Mardi Gras jersey, escorting Poirier to the cage. 

The Last KO. Someday, they will make a ten-part docuseries on Dustin Poirier’s last walk to the Octagon. He has been one of the lightweight division’s most prominent ass-kickers since 2011. But even after sixteen years, Poirier still has thermite in his hands. His hands can’t make it through TSA. The bomb sniffing dogs go ape shit when they smell Poirier coming. Poirier’s trademark low hand position is the secret behind his power. He swings from his waist, and the power it generates is like swinging kettlebells. Dustin is a right-handed Southpaw who keeps his power hand in the front, closest to the target. I still have nightmares about the right hand he landed on Benoit St. Denis. Not the one that dropped St. Denis, but the follow-up. That shit was like euthanizing a horse after suffering a broken leg in the Kentucky Derby. Yo! Hit that 50 Cent “So Disrespectful!” That follow-up was so so so disrespectful.   

Poirier is coming into this after one of his best career performances. It came in a loss to the former Champ, Islam Makhachev. Poirier survived terrible positions early in the fight and found success going to the body on the feet late. In his desperation to score a finish, Poirier gave up his back and was submitted in the fourth round. It was one of the rare times we had ever seen Makhachev take heavy damage. If that Poirier shows up against Max, it will be Mardi Gras in the streets of NOLA after the fight.  

But Max is only a year removed from the best performance of his career. Life hasn’t been the same since UFC 300. My kid got sent home from school last year because he pointed to the floor when the lunch lady refused to give him an extra French toast stick. A couple of days after the fight, a dude in a wheelchair pointed to the bathroom floor when I came out of the handicap stall with two working legs. I even had a dog point to the ground on me. When I squared up with that MF, the owner intervened, swearing that it was a bird dog, and it was just alerting him. Regardless, I’ve had to have my head on a swivel since UFC 300.   

I used to think Max lacked power, especially at lightweight. Then he knocked out Justin Gaethje. The NFL has “The Catch,” The NBA has “The Shot,” and now the UFC has “The Punch.” If Dan Ige needed a wheelbarrow to carry his Randy Marsh-sized balls after stepping in against Diego Lopes on just a few hours' notice, Max needed Ruble and Crew to haul his after UFC 300. Max seemed to have hit his power arc after knocking out the Korean Zombie and Justin Gaethje in back-to-back fights. But he has always been known for his acupuncture hands. He is an automatic one hundred significant strikes landed just stepping into the cage. Max leaves opponents looking like Hellraiser after fights. Looking like life-size voodoo dolls. Real Voodoo Dolls. Max will lump you up real quick and leave you looking like someone threw up on you in Braille. Max’s best weapon is volume. He holds the record for most significant strikes landed in a fight (445) against Calvin Kattar and averages over seven SLpM.   

The Ilia fight might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Max finally got some sleep. He had been suffering from insomnia for fifteen years. Nobody could put Max to sleep. He hadn’t even been officially knocked down until the Topuria fight. And after what Ilia did to Charles Oliveira, Max might have gotten off easy by comparison. The key for Max against Poirier will be getting off to a fast start. Max is the type of fighter who gets stronger as the fight progresses. But in their second fight, Poirier got out to a lead that Max couldn’t overcome.  

Fantasy-wise, this is a dream matchup. Three weeks ago, Brandon Royval and Joshua Van combined to land over four hundred significant strikes in a three-round fight. Barring an early stoppage, Max and Dustin could eclipse those numbers. Max is the early (-125) favorite, and Poirier is the (+105) live-ass dog. Poirier has already won this fight. Twice. And he’s coming in off a classic performance against Makhachev. Max is coming in off his first career KO loss. Poirier’s power was a problem for Max in the second fight. I don’t think that will change. Poirier just hits differently. The play for this one is a decision. I’m actually rooting against a finish. I want to see these guys bang for five rounds. I think a finish would slightly favor Poirier. But after the Gaethje fight, I’m not counting out Max’s power.   

Last week... The main event winning streak ended when Jason Herzog waved off Tallison Teixeira after Teixeira got back to his feet. Why the fook wait until he stood up to stop it? And Free Wonderboy! Anywho, I have no idea who will win this fight. The deciding factor is Poirier’s home-field advantage and fighting in his hometown in his final fight. One last time: Dustin Poirier via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Poirier: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+1200) Dec (+350) 

Holloway: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2000) Dec (+150)

Winner: Dustin Poirier | Method: Decision

Paulo Costa (+195) vs. Roman Kopylov (-235)

Costa: DK: $7.3k | Kopylov: DK: $8.9k

Speed vs. Power, Beauty vs. The Beast: You can coin this one however you would like. Paulo Costa looks like he was copied and pasted from the cover of one of your Grammy’s romance novels. And Roman Kopylov looks like Pennywise without his makeup. Pennywise on his day off from eating children. But this ain’t America’s Next Top Model. This is a crunchy little banger that was supposed to go down a few weeks ago. Fook the middleweight division, Roman Kopylov is one of the fastest men in the UFC. Roman’s speed is so potent that amphetamines take Roman Kopylov to get high. Paulo Costa remains one of the biggest head-scratchers in the UFC. He once fooked around and got a title shot. Only to fook around, hungover off box wine, and get his ass kicked by Stylebender. If Costa ever gets his shit together, he could be a real problem. Is this the fight? 

You can take one look at Roman Kopylov and know he’s a fighter. His face is one big scar tissue. Yo! Hit that Red Hot Chili Peppers “Scar Tissue!” Scar tissue that I wish you saw. Oh, we can see it. Kopylov’s nose looks like it’s held on with safety pins. He has duct tape and zip ties holding his eyebrows on. His face looks like a Kyle’s drywall. Looks like Andy Dufresne’s cell. Kopylov ain’t getting his deposit back for his face. My man’s face has permanent fist impressions like the Hollywood Walk of Fame. His face looks like Golden Eye graphics. Kopylov looks like Li Jingliang’s wingman. He ate his first right hand before he could eat solid foods. That’s because Kopylov’s offense is so potent that he never bothered to develop any defense. Kopylov is a one-trick pony: Speed.   

Kopylov’s hands are faster than the speed of life. He has those blink and you’re forty hands. Blink again and you’re collecting Social Security hands. His hands are so fast that little parachutes shoot out of them like dragsters to slow them down. Kopylov is so fast that you will think you're fighting two of those MFers. “Which one of y’all kicked me?” This guy is so fast, it must seem like his hands and feet never leave your face. Kopylov’s special move is a left round kick-left hand combination. He throws a punch on the backswing of his kick, and it looks like he’s throwing both strikes at the same time. It looks like he levitates. Kopylov is 14-3 with twelve TKOs/KOs. After starting 0-2 in the UFC, he has won six of his last seven and is riding a two-fight winning streak.   

Paulo Costa’s record is starting to get backed up. Homie has lost four of his last five, and Luke Rockhold ain’t walking through that tunnel any time soon. The sad thing about Costa is that he could be the Champ. He's that good. He has the power to KO anyone. But he looks like he’s taking a pop quiz every time he steps into the Octagon. Like, he didn’t know there was a fight today. He fights like he drew up his game plan with a stick in the dirt ten minutes earlier. Like someone shook the Etch A Sketch and erased his game plan. Paulo fights almost as if he thinks his Rico Suave looks alone can win the fight. Your worst nightmare is coming home, and Paulo Costa is chest naked, fixing your clogged kitchen sink. Rodolfos and Paulos, you can't trust ‘em. Rodolfos don’t wear shirts anywhere, and Paulos wear Speedos anywhere near water. Your sprinklers turn on, and there’s Paulo in a banana hammock posted up on your lawn. And there ain’t shit you can do about it. 

Unless he has been drinking box wine like a Real Housewife. Sip, sip, sippin’ on some Merlot like Three 6 Mafia sips on syrup. Then you might have a chance. Sutter Home is to Paulo Costa what Duff is to Barney Gumble. As a matter of fact, Paulo is the Lisa Vanderpump of MMA. His fights often look like reunion specials. Watching Costa fight has all the feels of a dopey ‘90s movie bully who is bound to be thwarted in the end. But he consistently shows flashes of scary striking. When he commits to hand and kick combinations, you see one of the best strikers in the division. But he just finds ways to squander time inside the cage without mounting much offense.   

Fantasy-wise, Costa is the higher output striker, averaging over six SLpM compared to Kopylov’s five. Costa has landed well over one hundred strikes three times in his career, and two of those came in three-round bouts. Kopylov recorded his highest striking total, one hundred thirty, in his previous bout against Chris Curtis. Barring an early stoppage, this is another Fantasy dream matchup. Both fighters will likely eclipse one hundred strikes. Kopylov is the (-245) favorite, and Costa is the (+200) live-ass dog. Costa is the bigger finishing threat. Kopylov has never been finished on the feet, but Costa has the power to change that if he can find a coherent, consistent pace. I think the play for this one is a decision. I’m stuck... But I just can’t trust Costa. Roman Kopylov via decision. On wax.  

Props

Kopylov: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+3000) Dec (+1000) 

Costa: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+1600) Dec (+400)

Winner: Roman Kopylov | Method: Decision

Kevin Holland (-550) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+390)

Holland: DK: $9.3k | D-Rod: DK:$6.9k

This one has me feeling like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. I swear it seems like I was writing about Kevin Holland just yesterday. This guy is two fights off from fighting once a month. This will be Holland’s fourth fight of 2025 and the second in just over four weeks. At this point, maybe intervention is required.  

“Because somewhere deep down in my heart, I still love you!” 

“Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!” 

Holland’s fight addiction is getting out of hand. When you fight more often than Lizzo eats, you might have a problem. Holland wakes up every night in a cold sweat because he fights in his dreams. This guy just got out of Smokey’s chicken coup the other day, and he’s already back in it, clucking and making pigeon noises. Holland fights more often than some people change their chonies. Homie never leaves the office, racking up unapproved OT. He doesn’t even bother to drive home; he just sleeps in the arena parking lot. 

But I’m not complaining. Wins and losses don’t matter to Kevin Holland because no matter what, he’s going to get right back on the horse. This fight against Daniel Rodriguez makes way too much sense. So much sense that it seems like they have already fought once before. There’s nothing I can tell you about Holland that I didn’t tell you last week and the week before and the week before that. He’s long as fook booooooy and will have the inside track on the feet if he can maintain pocket discipline. If he can stay on the outside and keep D-Rod from wading into the pocket. Holland’s arms are longer than the number pi; he’s built for range. His kryptonite is inside the pocket, exchanging combinations.  

After dropping two fights at middleweight, Holland has won two in a row at welterweight, most recently submitting Vicente Luque in the second round. Never forget, it was only two years ago that Holland got snubbed by the judges against the new champ, Jack Della Soul. Against D-Rod, Holland needs to roll up to the cage with a can of air freshener, looking like Craig’s dad, the dog catcher. Because that’s what D-Rod is; a fookin’ dog.  

It’s Dark and Hell is Hot, but D-Rod still made it out. No third-degree burns. I know somebody told you about fookin’ with D. Stuck in a tree, is what you will be like a cat. And D-Rod is a dog at the bottom, looking up. Anik, DC, and Dom bark like DMX adlibs during D-Rod's fights. D-Rod wears a choke collar, and Cesar Milan walks him to the cage. His style is bringing the street into the Octagon. D-Rod fights aren’t fights; they’re initiations. He hands out nothing but Blood In Blood Out ass whoopin’s.   

Since debuting in 2020, D-Rod has developed a specific modus operandi: Left hands on repeat. He just lets his left hand spray like drive-bys. Yeah, D-Rod has that Ricky Baker left hand. D-Rod uses a reverse psychology left hand. Anticipating that you think he will finally throw a right hand, he throws another left hand because he knows you’re thinking there is no way he will throw twenty straight left hands. Hit that Charlie Murphy! Wrong! Wrong! There he goes, snapping your head back with another left hand. Can you teach an old dog a new jab? If you can, D-Rod might become unstoppable. Against Holland, D-Rod will have to take risks. Leg kicks will set the foundation for D-Rod to hobble Holland and close the distance. D-Rods' short hooks and overhands are built to be utilized inside the pocket. 

The numbers: D-Rod is the higher output striker, averaging over seven SLpM compared to Holland’s just under four and a half. D-Rod is 19-5 with noine TKOs/KOs and four subs. He is riding a two-fight dub streak, most recently stopping The Ponz, Santiago Ponzinibio, in the third round. Holland is the massive (-460) favorite, and D-Rod is the (+340) live dog. This fight favors Holland’s length and range. But D-Rod is a nasty combination-pocket striker. Holland doesn’t use his range consistently. He often over-pursues and gives up the high ground. D-Rod can make him pay. I think this one will go the distance, but the Holland submission (the D’arce/Anaconda choke) is always live. D-Rod will occasionally shoot an errant double leg. That would be a huge mistake against Holland. Kevin Holland via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Holland: TKO/KO (+175) Sub (+240) Dec (+240) 

D-Rod: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+2500) Dec (+800)

Winner: Kevin Holland | Method: Decision

Dan Ige (-215) vs. Pat Freire (+180)

Ige: DK: $8.6k | Freire: DK: $7.6k

It has been a hard knock life lately for Bellator crossovers. Pat Freire is back after having the “ricio” beat off his name in his debut against Yair Rodriguez back in April. I tried to tell Pat, this ain’t Banana Ball, homie. Pat had a hard time adjusting to major league pitching in his debut. Although Dan Ige is a step down in competition from Yair, Ige is still just as dangerous as Yair. Ige’s right hand is Cy Young caliber. If Freire had it his way, he would have you believe he fought on April 1^st and not April 12^th, and that first fight was just a joke. But I’m afraid Dan Ige fights more like the old Pitbull than Pat Freire fights like the old Pitbull.   

Dan Ige is still parking his wheelbarrow in the red zone. He lets the meter run out with impunity when he parks it on the street. Handicap spaces, EV parking – Ige parks his Randy Marsh giant nuts anywhere he wants. You would think Ige’s balls were on the client list with all the special treatment they get. Cities had to adopt new building codes to accommodate Ige’s balls after he stepped in to face Diego Lopes on a couple of hours' notice. And he made weight even with his giant balls. If that fight had been a five-rounder, Ige would have pulled it off. He dominated Lopes in the third round. Ige went on to lose another suspect decision to Lerone Murphy before most recently beating the human Hieroglyph, Sean Woodson.   

Ige has always reminded me of Left Twix Josh Emmett. I asked an AI generator to create a separated-at-birth Josh Emmett from another mother... with huge nuts, and it gave me a picture of Dan Ige. Ige’s record doesn’t do him any justice. Go look at his strength of schedule. This guy used to go door-to-door selling magazines on Elm Street. “F**k your No Soliciting sign, Mr. Krueger.” Ige was stranded on Death Row, and we ain’t talkin’ 2Pac and Snoop Dogg. Homie rode the Green Mile lightning, and he’s still standing here screaming, “Fook the Free World!”  

Ige is still waiting to meet the MF who can knock him out. Where is he? Saying you saw Ige get his ass kicked is like saying you saw a Sinbad movie called Shazaam. It’s an implanted memory – some Mandela Effect type-shit. It never happened. Ige usually loses to wrestlers who can hold him down for fifteen to twenty-five minutes. Ige’s special weapon is his Shake Weight right hand. That gigitty-goo right hand. Ige’s right hand will have you tripping like October, November, and December. DMT trippin’. To me, Ige is a better Pitbull, and this should be his fight to lose if he can defend Pitbull’s tepid takedowns. But that’s not a given. Ige rocks only a fifty-eight percent takedown defense. That’s never a good look.   

The problem for Pitbull heading into the Yair fight was that Yair was the best fighter (other than Michael Chandler) that he had ever fought. After over twenty years in MMA, Pitbull was taking a step up in competition. And he is on the downside of his career. His best moments appear closer than they are because he’s looking at them through his side mirror. They’re behind him. Going from fighting Jeremy Kennedy (Who?) to fighting Yair Rodriguez is like going from climbing a moving escalator to scaling Mt. Everest. It’s like going from tee ball to facing that rookie pitcher from the Brewers. It’s like going from playing Techmo Super Bowl to playing Madden ‘26 on All Madden mode. Pitbull could give Elon a run for his money if Pitbull recycled all the cans he has fought for the last twenty years.   

The UFC getting Pitbull was like the Jets getting Aaron Rodgers a season or two too late. It wasn’t long ago that Freire was the Pitbull on the cover of DMX’s Grand Champ. Pitbull used to have so much dog in him that he had to wear a little red service animal vest while in public. I just didn’t see the same speed and power against Yair. And his wrestling/grappling has never been good enough to dominate a fight. But Pitbull still has streaks of aggression and heavy combinations. He will have to prepare for a firefight with Ige. Unless he can get Ige to the mat consistently, he will have to out-dog Ige. 

The odds say that won’t happen. Ige is the (-185) favorite, and Pitbull is the (+160) live-ish dog. This guy was dope in Bellator. He isn’t a TLC scrub. I just think he has lost a step like a leg amputee. Even in his last fight for Bellator, I didn’t see the speed and aggression of the old dominant Pitbull. I like playing this to go the distance. If Yair couldn’t get Pitbull out of there, I don’t see Ige, even with that right hand, finishing Pitbull. Ige had Woodson hurt in his previous fight, but couldn’t close the deal. Fantasy-wise, I’d try to avoid this fight. Ige has only landed significant strikes in the 40s in each of his last three fights. He's far from a volume striker. Dan Ige via decision. On wax.   

Props

Ige: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+1400) Dec (+110)  

Freire: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+1800) Dec (+240)

Winner: Dan Ige | Method: Decision

Michael Johnson (+450) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-650)

MJ: DK: $6.7k | Zellhuber: DK: $9.5k

If fights were only one round, Michael Johnson might have had a run as the Champ. He might even have a dub over Khabib. Nobody can almost win like Michael Johnson. Nobody has more “shoulda wons” on their record than MJ. He might be the only fighter with a knocked-out reel as long as his knockout reel. My man has spent more time in free fall than most fighters have recorded Octagon time. The canvas has landed over one hunnid significant strikes on MJ over the years. The canvas averages more SLpM against MJ than Kron Gracie averages for his career. But don’t get it twisted like Kenny Smith’s knees, MJ still has that Wonderboy speed. Johnson vs. Zellhuber will be a striker’s delight, speed versus technical prowess.   

Michael Johnson is so fast that he wears gold gloves in the ring like the former fastest man on earth, with the same name, used to wear gold shoes in the Olympics. MJ is the fastest man in MMA. He will still zip you up like the Thriller jacket real quick. Wrapped in plastic, zipped up in bags, when it happens, that’s it. MJ has seen ‘em come; he has watched ‘em go. And he’s still winning fights. In fact, homie is riding a two-fight dub streak. His hand speed can still reverse the aging process. You will look ten years younger after MJ pieces you up. His hands will Benjamin Button your ass. You’ll be an infant by the end of the second round. MJ has more Speed than Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock. In addition to his speed, MJ uses every inch of his reach and is good at landing at the apex of his punches. He lacks power, but his accuracy and ability to touch your chin make up for it. 

I love MJ, but he is an accident waiting to happen, like the Dallas Cowboys. He will break your heart like your first love – like the ending of Where the Red Fern Grows. His chin is a light switch waiting to be turned off. You can turn MJ’s lights off like the clapper. But no matter what, MJ will go out on his shield. The key for MJ is always rolling off punches. He never does it. He always returns right back along the centerline after every exchange. You always know where his head is. You can find his chin in the dark. 

And that is bad news when facing a superior technical striker like Daniel Zellhuber.  In his last bout against Esteban Ribovics, Zellhuber was drafted and sent to the front lines on some Starship Troopers type-ish. Zellhuber earned a Purple Heart and got promoted in defeat after that fight. And now he is reenlisting for another tour of duty. I call Zellhuber a private school striker because his technique is studious. It’s textbook. Homie fights like he graduated from Cranbrook High. He’s a preppy, technical striker – a Lisa Simpson striker. Let me cook. A Steve Urkel striker. Zellhuber’s homies call him Bueno Bueno Dos Chanclas. But he will serve you up an A+ ass whoopin’ if you get to thinking shit’s sweet.   

Zellhuber thrives when he can dictate the terms of the engagements, controlling the pocket from the outside while avoiding extended exchanges. His hands are tight like jar lids. Zellhuber has thread-the-needle precise boxing. And he will have the advantage down the middle between MJ’s shoulders. He can beat the faster MJ to the punch with hands that are shorter to the target. But his major malfunction is that he has passive-aggressive defense. He ignores punches, pretends they aren’t in the room, and addresses them indirectly through a third-party mediator. Like MJ, Zellhuber’s head rarely deviates from the centerline. 

Zellhuber is the higher output striker, averaging just under six and a half SLpM compared to MJ’s just under four and a half. Zellhuber is 15-2 with seven TKOs/KOs and three subs. MJ is 23-19 with ten TKOs/KOs and two subs. Zellhuber will be the prohibited (-585) favorite, and MJ will be the (+410) mangy-ass dog. These odds reflect MJ’s unstable chin and its penchant for attracting punches. MJ has to get Zellhuber out of there early, overwhelming him with speed. The longer the fight goes, the more likely it is that Zellhuber will land a killshot. The play for this one is a finish: MJ early, and Zellhuber mid to late. This one hurts. Daniel Zellhuber via TKO, round three. Wax on, wax off. 

Props

Zellhuber: TKO/KO (+150) Sub (+400) Dec (+165)  

Johnson: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+4000) Dec (+800)

Winner: Daniel Zellhuber | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Marvin Vettori ($7.4k): Vettori has recorded over 100 significant strikes in each of his last three bouts, one of which was only three rounds. Vettori’s major malfunction is an inexplicable lack of power for a man of his size. But he is a rare high-output striker in the middleweight division. Also, he has solid takedown defense. Brendan Allen is the more well-rounded fighter and will have a massive advantage on the mat. Which means he probably won’t try to wrestle much. Allen is notorious for standing and trading until he nearly gets knocked out. Marvin’s pace on the feet could turn this fight into a high-output affair. It is another ugly week for the Value Menu, but Vettori can notch 60-80 significant strikes in his sleep. This is a good spot, win or lose, to put some points on the board.   

Paulo Costa ($7.3k): I had a hard time not picking Costa to beat Roman Kopylov. But he just can’t be trusted like farts after a Taco Bell run. A guy with Costa’s physical attributes and striking skills shouldn’t be 1-4 in his last five fights, with his lone win coming against Luke Rockhold, who hadn’t fought for three years prior. I say all that say this: When Costa lets his hands and shins go, he is one of the scarier strikers in the middleweight division. Memberberries when Costa nearly stole the Robert Whittaker fight after landing a spinning wheel kick? Costa has vowed to be more focused for this fight, but that’s like Lizzo promising she won't eat ur leftovers in the fridge. If he is true to his word, I think he could surprise Kopylov, who will be making a step up in competition. Even without a finish, Costa averages over six SLpM and is more than capable of eclipsing the one hundred strikes mark in a three-round bout.  

Daniel Rodriguez ($6.9k): Wait. What? A Clearance Rack fighter on the Value Menu!? Other than Costa and Vettori, I think D-Rod, even in defeat, will have a better chance of lighting up the Fantasy scoreboard than the remaining fighters on the Value Menu. D-Rod averages over seven SLpM and has eclipsed the one hundred strikes landed mark six times in his UFC career. And all six came in three-round scraps. This guy's factory setting is throwing extended combinations. Holland vs. D-Rod is guaranteed to be a fifteen-minute stand-up banger, likely to produce striking stats galore for both fighters. The key for D-Rod will be avoiding errant takedowns. Holland will snatch his neck ASAP. Holland is a long, rangy fighter, but he doesn’t always use his reach consistently. D-Rod will have a big advantage landing combinations inside the pocket.    

 $6k Clearance Rack

Michael Johnson ($6.7k): MJ will not only have a good chance to beat Daniel Zellhuber, but he’ll also have a good chance of doing it early. MJ’s speed is a lot to handle, especially early. If Zellhuber doesn’t make quick adjustments on the fly, he could get clipped early. Barring an early finish, this fight could turn into a high-output, back-and-forth banger, resulting in a high number of significant strikes for both fighters. Of the four fighters on the Clearance Rack, MJ not only has the best chance of pulling off the upset but also scoring a finish in doing so.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Dustin Poirier (+112): Being a dog against a man you have beaten twice and finished once is filthy work. The only trepidation I have for Poirier is that it’s been over a year since he last fought. But that fight against Islam Makhachev was one of his best career performances. He showed classic Dustin Poirier dog and, at times, beat Makhachev up. That was the only time Makhachev looked like he had been in a fight after the fight. Also, Poirier will be fighting in the Blender, the home of my New Orleans Pelicans, in his own backyard. Dustin Poirier at plus-money against another striker; that’s an automatic Andy Jackson for me. If you want to add some value, Poirier by decision is the move.  

Paulo Costa (+210): Power vs. Speed: The classic matchup. Paulo has the power in the equation. In every Costa fight, you see flashes of a man who can KO anyone in the division. More UFC experience: Check. Big fight experience: Check. Costa has fought better competition than Roman Kopylov (who I picked to win this fight), but Kopylov hasn’t fought anyone better than Costa. This will be a step up for Kopylov. Costa's heavy round kicks could be the difference. Kopylov hasn’t fought someone who can kick with him. Can Costa kick it? Yes, he can. Even when Costa loses, the Stylebender title fight remains the only time Costa ever got his ass kicked. If Costa is committed to leading the dance and not letting Kopylov sit on the outside and use his superior speed, Costa can win this fight.  

Michael Johnson (+425): I’m having a hard time finding viable dogs. I like Vettori’s chances if he can stuff a couple of Brendan Allen’s takedowns and make it a kickboxing match. But I just can’t stop looking at that number next to MJ’s name. Zellhuber is the rightful favorite, and I’m picking him to win the fight. But these odds are a little disrespectful. MJ has won two in a row and three of his last four. And MJ dominated the first round in the fight he lost against Diego Ferreira. After getting out to a dominant start, it was a classic MJ heartbreaker. I’m telling you, MJ’s speed, even at thirty-noine years old, is still elite. One thing you can count on, MJ will go out on his shield. An imposter won’t show up in place of MJ come fight night. He will go for the KO no matter what.   

Pick ‘Em

Kyler Phillips (+135) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (-155)  

Winner: Vinicius Oliveira 

Method: Decision 

Marvin Vettori (+170) vs. Brendan Allen (+200)  

Winner: Brendan Allen 

Method: Decision 

Francisco Prado (-145) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+125)  

Winner: Francisco Prado 

Method: Decision 

Ateba Gautier (-575) vs. Robert Valentin (+400) 

Winner: Ateba Gautier 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Adam Fugitt (+430) vs. Islam Dulatov (-625) 

Winner: Islam Dulatov 

Method: TKO Rd.1 

Jimmy Crute (-330) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+265) 

Winner: Jimmy Crute 

Method: Kimura Rd.2 

Ryan Spann (-225) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+185) 

 Winner: Ryan Spann 

Method: Rear Naked Choke Rd.1 

Brunno Ferreira (-600) vs. Jackson McVey (+425) 

Winner: Brunno Ferreira 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Carli Judice (-340) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+270) 

Winner: Carli Judice 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.