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Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Dricus Du Plessis (+200) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-240)

DDP: DK: $7.3k | Chimaev: DK:$8.9k

We live in a world of mis/dis/malinformation and gaslighting. The official story for any given event is constructed by the shady conglomerate pulling the strings of the puppets who supposedly represent you in every rank of our government, local, state, and federal. They’ve been successful in creating an alternate reality in which everything you have been taught about history is a lie crafted by the heads of the dynastic families that have been running this country since before its inception. Before? Before. This indoctrination of fake history is anchored to our psyches and kept in circulation as mainstream dogma from generation to generation as indisputable truth by tying them to feelings of intense patriotism. Patriotism that is fostered by the distortion and rewriting of real events. The official story is the conspiracy theory.  

The MMA world isn’t immune to these deceitful tactics. While the main motivations of this anti-human cabal are the acquisition of the world’s resources through the creation of constant war and the elimination of any alternative to capitalism, the UFC’s motivation is simple: To create drama. When it comes to history, the biggest lie ever told is an ongoing debate. There are plenty to choose from. But when it comes to the UFC, the biggest lie ever told is Dricus Du Plessis.  

From the moment he first waddled into the Octagon, they were gaslighting us. DDP looked like he had just undergone emergency leg replacement surgery, and Kenny Smith was the donor. He was walking around that bish like scuba divers wearing flippers. When DDP made the walk for his debut against Markus Perez, me and the homies looked like Charlie Murphy when Prince and his crew came out for the pick-up game wearing the same shit they had on in the club. I swear, I thought it was an adult Make-A-Wish wish granted, and Perez was set to take a dive. Like Perez would pretend to get knocked down, and let DDP choke him. And DDP would get carried out of the Octagon on his Dad’s shoulders to the adulation of the crowd. I’m not crying; you are!   

I still don’t believe my lyin’ eyes. Yo! Hit that Eagles “Lyin’ Eyes!” But here he is. Dricus Du Plessis is the reigning, defending Champ.  

“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” - George Orwell, 1984 

I’m a believer now. After going 0-8 on picking DDP to lose every fight, I finally picked him to win the rematch against Sean Strickland. Somehow, some way, DDP is the Champ, and he’s fookin’ good. This guy throws up more Ws than the Wu. Ls to DDP are like water to a duck’s ass; they just roll right off. Homie is immune to Ls as if he were jabbed with a defeat vaccine. If DDP ever takes an L, he will look like Joffrey at the Purple Wedding. His face will balloon, and his throat will constrict. He’ll look like Ace Ventura with spears stuck in his legs after his corner hits him with a couple of EpiPens. Like T-Pain, all DDP does is win, win, win, no matter what. Hit that shit! 

How does he do it? DDP’s special power is awkwardness. He’s awkward like dropping a duece in a unisex restroom, and when you walk out that bish like Seth and Richie Gecko walking out of the liquor store, there’s a bad Betty waiting to use it. DDP has always reminded me of a Gain of Function “Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine. Like Jardine, DDP’s style is ugly like AC Green. Bish, don’t call here anymoooooore! Yo! Hit that “Big Egos!” DDP blitzes you, chasing you across the cage while hurling punches from angles that were thought to be extinct. He’s the Galileo of discovering new angles to throw strikes from. You could put a Three Stoogies soundtrack to DDP’s fights, and it would be fitting because he hits you with clubbing overhand bonks and boinks to the top of the head that you can’t possibly defend.   

How will he beat Khamzat Chimaev? By dragging him into deep waters. DDP has eyes like a fish. He can see at the bottom of the ocean where it’s black as pitch. This MF dwells in the deep where no light has ever reached. And unlike the Titan sub, DDP can handle the pressure that comes with it. Khamzat fades. He fades like childhood friendships. DDP doesn’t. He used to. But those days are gone. Had the Kamaru Usman fight been five rounds, Chimaev would have lost that night (I thought he did anyway). After the first round, Chimaev faded against Gil Burns. If DDP can get out of the first round, he can beat Chimaev. But the key for DDP will be spending a day at a local preschool and contracting a mild cold. 

Because Khamzat's only career losses came against the flu and Covid. Chimaev had to pull out of multiple fights in the past due to illness. This guy may have a black belt in ass-kicking, but his immune system has a white belt. He could catch a computer virus. Covid and the flu went back-to-back on him like Mel Gibson and Danny Glover. Khamzat is like the invading extraterrestrial tripods in War of the Worlds that are eventually defeated by human viruses that weaken their armor, leaving them vulnerable to human weapons. This MF caught hay fever somewhere between Independence Rock and Soda Springs and never made it to Oregon. But although his ascension has been delayed, he could be the next dominant champion if he beats DDP. 

When Chimaev gets hold of you... Hit that Boyz II Men!... It’s the end of the road. Surviving the first round against Chimaev is like surviving an initial nuclear blast and the ensuing nuclear winter, rocking only a pair of chonies and chanclas - keeping warm by blowing in your hands. Surviving the opening five minutes is like prying yourself from the jaws of Jaws. You look like laundry in the washer when Khamzat gets hold of you. He grabs you by the scruff and  thrashes you against the ground on either side of him like he’s Jaxx in Mortal Kombat. Then he mauls you like the ending of Grizzly Man. He turned Bobby Knuckles into a fookin’ Pez dispenser. Had Bobby speaking Through the Wire like Kanye.   

But on the feet, Khamzat is beatable. He’s a good striker, but he’s not elite. And when he starts to fade, he becomes fairly average. The power advantage and overall striking will be in DDP’s favor. If Chimaev can’t create an early finish, I wouldn’t be surprised if DDP ends up in the top position late in the fight. Nobody outside of a gym has seen Khamzat’s guard. When DDP gets on top of you, it’s like you fell inside the gorilla exhibit at the zoo. People just hold up cameras and offer a courtesy scream every once in a while, as he de-limbs (made up word) you.   

The numbers: DDP averages over six SLpM compared to Khamzat’s just under five and a half. This will be a high-output affair on the feet. The bad news for DDP is his fifty percent takedown defense. That will be a bad look in the opening minutes. DDP will have to survive from his back early. Chimaev will be the early (-215) favorite, and DDP will be the (+180) live-ass dog. DDP opened around (+200). Go back and watch the Usman vs. Chimaev fight. Usman was coming on strong at the end of that fight. Chimaev was saved by the final bell. The championship rounds will likely be DDP’s to lose. The clock will be his best weapon. One way or another, the play is a finish. Khamzat by submission, and DDP by TKO/KO. 

We’re streaking again thanks to Fluffy Hernandez. He’s the fookin’ dark horse of the division. He could fook around and see the winner of Chimaev vs. DDP soon. Nobody does Roman Dolidze like that. This week, I just can’t shake the feeling that DDP can survive on the mat for the first two rounds. If he can, Chimaev will be in trouble. I’m gonna do it again. Dricus Du Plessis via TKO, round five. Put it on wax.  

Props

DDP: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+900) Dec (+600) 

Chimaev: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+130) Dec (+500)

Winner: Dricus Du Plessis | Method: TKO Rd.5

Lerone Murphy (+145) vs. Aaron Pico (-170)

Murphy: DK: $8k | Pico: DK: $8.2k

Recent Bellator-turned-UFC fighters finally got a dub when Pitbull beat Dan Ige a couple of weeks ago. It’s been a rough transition for them. Aaron Pico is the latest Bellator defector. This kid was the Sage Northcut of Bellator when it came to the early hype train backing him. Pico made his pro debut in Bellator. He was immediately swiped with a counterfeit pen and held up to a black light – fraud checked. Pico was submitted in twenty-four seconds. That night, his dub was already a foregone conclusion. But he went out like Matt Hasselbeck in the playoffs, “We want the ball, and we’re gonna score!” Then he immediately threw a pick-six in OT. You wanna crown his ass, then crown him! Most people took Denny Green’s advice and did just that. But Zach Freeman (who?) sent Pico on his B. Rabbit arc, “Snap back to reality! Oh, there goes gravity!” Since his debut, Pico has gone 13-3 and has recorded a lengthy highlight reel of vicious KOs. He is the real deal. But is he really real? 

When I watch Aaron Pico, I catch strong whiffs of Chandler. And we ain’t talking Arizona, homies. I compare many fighters to Michael Chandler. But he’s the prototypical wrestler striker with one-touch KO power and dominant wrestling. Pico is built like the No Limit tank and fights angrily. He fights like he left his phone unlocked and has to get back before anybody finds it. My man went to anger management, a twelve-step program, tripped on the first step, and got pinned down in a choke slam. On the feet, homie will box you up like Postal Annex. He uses a high, technical guard and has little M-80s for hands. A body snatcher, Pico attacks low before targeting the head. But as good as his hands are, his standing elbows may be his most effective weapons. He’ll ginsu your ass, serve you up julienne.   

The red flag for Pico is his resume. Pico was drafted straight out of high school, on some Kobe and LeBron type-ish. Lerone Murphy is by far the best fighter Pico has faced. Pico has been working graveyards at the recycling plant, crushing cans. “You’ve been working at this plant so long, you’re a plant! Look at your boots! They’re starting to grow roots!” Pico was originally set to fight Movsar Evloev a couple of weeks ago. I thought Pico dodged a JFK bullet on that fight falling through. This one could be just as tough. 

Lerone Murphy is the Leon Edwards of the featherweight division. He’s a mint condition striker. When he’s done fighting, you place him in a little plastic divider like trading cards so his edges don’t get bent. I call Leon and Lerone  private school strikers. Everything is nice a pretty with their little plaid uniforms freshly pressed each fight. Leon and Murphy were classmates at Cranbrook High School. And Lerone’s real name is Clarence. Murphy treats his hands like DJ Khaled treats his kicks. He treats his hands like he rented them for the Prom and has to return them after. Keeping with the trading card analogy, Murphy treats his hands like a mint-condition 1911 Honus Wagner. Murphy averages four and a half SLpM, but he’s more of a conservative striker who tries to avoid extended exchanges in the pocket. He wants to stick and move on the outside, taking as few risks as possible. But, like Leon, Murphy is long and rangy with a sniper-like precision from the outside.   

And that’s not a knock against him. His style is effective and has led him to a 16-0 record, including a 9-0-1 record in the UFC. His style is like the British in the Revolutionary War, standing in perfectly coordinated rows and taking turns volleying musket rounds back and forth. You have to go full Mel Gibson in The Patriot on Murphy. You have to hide in the brush, ambush him, and throw hatchets. Pico can do that. But for Pico, going from fighting Henry Corrales to fighting Lerone Murphy is like going from fighting Glass Joe to Mike Tyson in Punch Out! Lerone’s best weapon is the timing of his level changes. If you get out of pocket, he will put you on your back and steal the round.   

Whoa! Aaron Pico will be the (-135) favorite, and Murphy will be the early (+115) live-ass dog. Get Murphy at plus-money while you can. I thought Murphy would be the favorite. Compare their resumes. The knock against Murphy is a lack of finishes. He seems to do just enough to get his hand raised. But he is supremely technical in every aspect. The play for this one is a decision. Pico’s previous two fights ended in the first round, but I don’t see him bullying Lerone Murphy. I’m gonna have to take back-to-back dogs. Lerone Murphy via decision. On wax. 

Props

Pico: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+900) Dec (+140) 

Murphy: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+2800) Dec (+250)

Winner: Lerone Murphy | Method: Decision

Carlos Prates (-245) vs. Geoff Neal (+205)

Prates: DK: $9.1k | Neal: DK:$7.1k

The nerds are back in town. The nerds are back in town… Dorks, dweebs, geeks, you can call them what you want. The Fighting Nerds are a coalition of fighting geniuses who graduated from the Ivy League of Hard Knocks, double majoring in TKOs and KOs. These guys geek out like Conor McGregor does 23 ½ hours a day. After their first team loss in the UFC when Carlos Prates dropped a close bout against Ian Garry, the Fighting Nerds now have a collective GPA of 4.8. Prates lost that fight, but he had Garry on the ropes in the closing seconds. In the fifth round, Prates beat the lower back tat off Garry’s ankle. He beat Garry so badly in the final minutes that Garry took Prates’s last name and now goes by Ian Machado-Prates-Garry. If what happened to Garry at the end of that fight is considered winning, I don’t want to win. That fight was only three months ago, and Prates is back for more like a goody-goody begging for extra credit.      

Prates has a secret weapon: Malborro Reds. Homie has those Patty & Selma iron lungs. He rolls up into the Octagon looking like Doc Holiday when Doc showed up at the arroyo to fight Johnny Ringo in Wyatt Earp’s stead. “Why, Geoff Neal, you look like a ghost done walked over your grave.” If lung cancer can’t beat Carlos Prates, wtf are you going to do to him? This guy would fight with a cig in his mouf if the commission let him. He dispelled the myth about “Smokers’ Lung” when he was hammerfisting Garry (sounds explicit) late in the fifth round. Carlos didn’t slow down and proved he can go five hard rounds. So, you aren’t going to out cardio him. 

On the feet, Prates is Carlos the Impaler. His punches will have you looking like any Kyle’s house with holes riddling the drywall in every room. Homie is the one who punched the hole in Andy Dufresne’s cell wall. Prates will have you walking around with a Rita Hayworth poster hanging from your neck. Prates has long, whipping punches that sound wet when they land. Each one is a Lizzo cannonball from the Olympic platform, turning the entire deck and parking lot into a splash zone. The Sagat Tiger Knee is Prates’s special move. He hides it behind hand combinations or uses it as a counter. As a southpaw, the knee is perfectly in line with your liver. You already know, it’s brown panty night when you fight Carlos Prates. The key for Prates against Geoff Neal will be using his range. Geoff will have to wade into the pocket behind power shots, which will play into Prates’s counter game.   

Never forget that time Geoff Neal ran over the Bare Knuckle King, Mike “Platinum” Perry, like Suge Knight in a pick-up truck. My man Platinum Mike wasn’t even a speed bump. Running over him didn’t even make the Shavkat  bobblehead on his dash nod. That Geoff Neal suspension is something else. And that Geoff Neal left hand just hits different. With Neal also being a southpaw, this could turn into a battle of left hands. Left hand for left hand, we can all go to sleep. Neal’s left hand is like the Independence Day spaceship beam that destroys all the major cities. It evicerates you from the inside out. But Neal’s special move (which he doesn’t use enough) is his left round kick. The destruction of Mike Perry, Neal Set it Off like Queen Latifa with round kicks to the body. It’ll turn your innie into an outie real quick.  

Overall, Neal is a scary MF on the feet. Call him MF Doom. Well, with the exception of second rounds. Neal’s major malfunction is that he protests second rounds. He straight discriminates against second rounds. Homie uses PTO for second rounds. I don’t know what it is, but after getting out to a fast start, he turns into Mitch McConnell at the podium, frozen. In nearly every fight, Neal has to execute the two-minute offense late in fights and mount third-round comebacks. Neal will be the higher output striker, averaging five SLpM compared to Prates’s three and a half. Extended combinations in the pocket account for much of his output. Neal will have to cut off the cage and box Prates in so he can get inside. That will call for taking risks. If the Geoff Neal who showed up against Shavkat shows up against Prates, he can win this fight. If the Neal who fought fellow Neil, Neil Magny, or Ian Garry, the somewhat timid Neal, shows up, Prates will run away with this fight.   

Prates will be the (-260) favorite, and Neal will be the (+215) live dog. This will be a banger and a battle of range. If Neal can dictate it inside the pocket, he can steal the fight with volume. The play for this one is a decision. Prates’s countering ability gives him a better shot at scoring a finish. But Neal has only been finished once on the feet. That standing Shavkat choke doesn’t count. At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, Prates’s range will cause Neal plenty of problems. Give me Carlos Prates via decision. And put it on wax.   

Props

Prates: TKO/KO (+110) Sub (+2000) Dec (+275) 

Neal: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+2000) Dec (+550)

Winner: Carlos Prates | Method: Decision

Jared Cannonier (+165) vs. Michael Venom Page (-190)

Cannonier: DK: $7.5k | MVP: DK: $8.7k

Get ready for another boring MVP fight. But it’s not MVP’s fault. That’s just what happens when you have a ten-minute highlight reel of turning opponents into Civil War vets with missing jawbones, empty eye sockets, and dents in their foreheads like they just got rear-ended. Signing on the dotted line is as far as most fighters are willing to go when it comes to fighting MVP. Once they’re locked inside the cage with him... see, what had happened was. MVP is the most exciting/boring fighter of all time. He’s a moron. As in, an oxymoron. It’s like finding yourself inside a Squid Game when you’re in the cage with MVP. You just do whatever it takes to hear the final bell chime. If there was anybody willing to throw himself into the fire against MVP, it’s Jared Cannonier. This guy used to wear a fat suit like Eddie Murphy in the Nutty Professor and fight heavyweights.  

MVP is built like Xerxes. He’s built like Slender Man. His limbs are longer than the horizon. His hands and legs reach as far as the eye can see. MVP can hit you from last month. He can hit you while you’re signing the contract. And when he does, he dents you like clearance soup cans. You didn’t even know what botulism was until you got diagnosed with it after fighting this guy. He leaves you disfigured like Picasso paintings. You qualify for USAA auto insurance after fighting MVP. Just tell them you’re a war vet and show them the side of your face that’s missing. Check out what MVP did to the male Cyborg in Bellator. Cyborg’s Carfax shows he has been in one accident since that fight. His forehead looked like a mine cave-in with no survivors in that bish. They usually have to pixilate MVP’s opponents while he’s getting his hands raised.   

MVP’s special power isn’t a secret. It’s his length. He’s long and lean and uses a bladed Karate stance that maximizes every inch of his reach. When he’s in that bladed stance, it’s like turning a piece of paper sideways. You can barely see him, much less find a target to attack. He doesn’t leave you with many offensive options. And the second you even think of throwing something, there’s a hand or foot in your face. Then they’re picking up your pieces from the canvas and putting you back together again like a morbid Humpty Dumpty.  

So take him down. 

 It’s not that easy. Ian Garry and Kevin Holland managed to get him down twice. They were both two of five on takedown attempts. Statistically, MVP rocks the same takedown defense as Cannonier, sixty-four percent. But it doesn’t matter because Jared Cannonnier won’t be taking MVP down.   

That’s because, even at forty-one, “He Went To” Jared Cannonier still has that Stankonia power. He’ll turn your poundcake to red velvet real quick. Just ask Brazilian Deebo, Gregory Rodrigues. After getting nearly every freckle on his ass kicked in the first round, Cannonier survived and turned into Craig in the fourth round and landed a brick to Deebo’s face. “You got knocked the fook out!” Even this late in his career, Jared has his heavyweight power. Cannonier has fought everybody who was anybody in the middleweight division. And his style hasn’t changed over the years. He fights like he forgot his age again. Yo! Hit my hometown shit – that Blink 182 “What’s My Age Again!” Cannonier may have lost a step or two like Lt. Dan, but he still has Gasoline Dreams and a lit match. 

But Jared has a major malfunction. His chin. At some point in every fight, Jared turns into a Dancing with the Stars season winner. Jared has an extensive repertoire, including the Tango, Salsa, and Cha-Cha. My man eats a punch and starts dancing like he’s on the Jumbo Tron between innings. And he’ll bust out the Macarena and start feeling himself because he’s in his forties and still winning fights. That’s because his chin bends, but it doesn’t break. It might be held on with duct tape and bungee cords, but it’s still standing here screaming, “Fook the Free World!” Cannonier has lost two of his last three or won three of his last five – however you want to look at it. His two recent losses came against the two guys who will be fighting to determine who will be next in line for the winner of the main event, Nasssourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho. 

MVP will be the (-185) favorite, and Cannonier will be the (+160) live-ass dog. Jared beats everybody but World Champions. MVP’s skill level is right inside Cannonier’s wheelhouse. These are the types of fights he has won his entire career. Statistically, Cannonier outstrikes MVP almost two to one. But letting your hands go is easier said than done against MVP. He can hit you when you aren’t even close to hitting him. The knock against MVP is a lack of finishes since jumping over to the UFC. The play for this one is a decision. Cannonier’s chin will be the x-factor. MVP via decision. On wax.     

Props

Cannonier: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+2500) Dec (+275)  

MVP: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2800) Dec (+100)

Winner: Michael Venom Page | Method: Decision

Kai Asakura (-310) vs. Tim Elliott (+255)

Asakura: DK: $7k | Elliott: DK: $9.2k

I’ll keep this one short. I swear. This is a grappler’s delight. Tim Elliott is darkness personified. Hello darkness, my old friend, Enter Sandman, and all that. Matter of fact, hit that Offspring “The Kids Aren’t Alright!” Tim Elliott is not alright. But you can argue that anybody willing to sign up to fight another man or woman in a cage is not alright. This guy is erratic, sporadic, and dramatic. He strikes to the beat of his own MPC machine. He reminds me of a Dominick Cruz faded at the company Christmas party on the feet. He just wings punches from both stances until he’s close enough to take you down. And when he gets you down, he’s closer to Fluffy Hernandez, dolling out ass-whippin's, than he is a lay n’ pray position-over-submission wrestler. Elliott’s major malfunction is his gas tank. All that wildin’ out in the first two rounds always catches up to him late. But he will have to create chaos for fifteen minutes if he wants to beat Kai Asakura. This fight is his to win on the mat if he can get it there.    

Because on the feet, Asakura will box Elliott’s face... off. The flying knee KO is in full effect. Kai almost landed it in the opening minutes of his title fight against Toja Cat. This is the guy who made his debut against the Champ, Alexandre Pantoja. Toja Cat did Toja Cat shit and submitted Asakura in the second round. The good news for Asakura heading into his second UFC bout is that going from fighting Toja Cat to fighting Tim Elliott is like going from doing open-heart brain surgery to playing the board game Operation. In Japan, Akakura is the Ohtani of MMA. He was the Rizin flyweight champion and had a loss in the promotion to Manel Kape. Overall, Akakura is a nasty offensive boxer. A true sprawl n’ brawl throwback. But as he climbs back up the rankings, better strikers will take advantage of his lack of defensive instincts. His chin is always floating in the air like it’s filled with helium. And he rocks that People’s Court neck brace head movement. The loss to Toja Cat was the first submission loss on his 21-5 record.   

Asakura will be the (-290) favorite, and Elliott will be the (+240) live-ass dog. Yes, live-ass dog. Elliott mauls people on the mat. Asakura was tough to get down, but as soon as Toja got him to the mat, the fight was over. Elliott softens you up with ground and pound while maintaining top control. But if Asakura can keep it standing, he will make Elliott look silly on his feet. Also, Elliott can’t telegraph his level changes, or Asakura will land a counter knee. Play this one for a finish one way or another. Elliott by submission or Asakura by TKO/KO. Kai Asakura via TKO, round two. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Elliott: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+900) Dec (+500)  

Asakura: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+1800) Dec (+150)

Winner: Kai Asakura | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Dricus Du Plessis ($7.5k): If DDP can escape the first round, I like his chances of battling his way back into the fight and taking over in the championship rounds. Chinks in Chimaev’s armor have been exposed each time a Chimaev fight has gone past the first round, by both Gil Burns and Kamaru Usman. Chimaev has solid striking, but it’s not elite/world-class. In his own awkward way, DDP is an elite striker. Past me would laugh like Ray Liotta at the sound of that statement. But it’s true. How many strikers does DDP have to out-strike to prove he’s elite? He attacks with well-timed blitzes, winging shots from wild angles. It’s like he’s playing a game of HORSE but with strikes. The only question is DDP’s defensive wrestling/grappling/sub defense. We know offensively, DDP is a monster on the mat. But does his guard game match? Chimaev will relent to a kickboxing match outside of the first round or two if the takedowns aren’t immediately available. And a late DDP finish isn’t out of the question.   

Geoff Neal ($7.1k): Neal vs. Prates will be a stand-up banger. Neal’s only loss by TKO/KO came against Kevin Holland outside of the UFC. I like the chances of this fight going the distance, which will give Neal plenty of time to rack up significant strikes. Historically, Neal is the higher output striker, averaging five SLpM to Prates’ three and a half. This will be a battle of range. If Neal can get inside consistently and extend combinations, he can steal close rounds with volume. Prates is more of a 1s and 1-2s striker from the outside. But Neal will have to tread carefully. His forward pressure could play into Prates’ superior counters. You will be hard-pressed to find finishes on the Value Menu this week, so the focus should be on who has matchups favorable to landing a high volume of significant strikes. Neal likely won’t top the one-hundred-strikes mark, but he should be around the 70-80 range.   

Gerald Meerschaert ($7.2k): The submission hoarder is back. Gerald Meerschaert will either submit Michal Oleksiejczuk or get KO’d. Check it: Oleks has noine career Ls, and six came via submission. And Meerschaert has twenty-noine career submissions. The only problem for GM3 is that he doesn’t commit to his ground game. Sometimes, if his opponent doesn’t slip on a banana peel and take himself down, Meerschaert won’t even bother trying. It’s frustrating and makes betting on this guy a real extreme sport. But if Meerschaert can get Oleks to the mat, he will snatch Oleks’s neck, likely a guillotine. GM3 is one of the few Value Menu options with the potential to score a finish. However, his downside is getting pieced up on the feet and likely finished. So you’re saying he’s a gamble? Yep. Isn’t that what we’re here for? 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Alexander Hernandez ($6.9k): Hernandez is the only option on the Clearance Rack this week. He will be in a grappler vs. striker matchup against the grappling Harry Potter, Chase Hooper. Hernandez’s hand is already poised to tap. Although he has only been submitted once in his career, “Hanging With Mr.” Hooper is different on the mat. Lanky and janky isn’t only a deadly combination when striking. That duo’s effectiveness might translate even better on the mat. I would take a chance on Tim Elliott at $7k over Hernandez. Hernandez will have a shot at an upset if he can use his seventy-one percent takedown defense to force a kickboxing match. But Elliott will have a better chance of getting Kai Asakura to the mat and grinding him out.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

DDP (+200): I’m done underestimating this guy. It only took noine fights after going 0-8 picking DDP fights. Maybe I’m overestimating Chimaev’s suspect gas tank. But I think DDP can take over the second half of this fight if he can survive the early transitions on the mat without giving up his back. Striking-wise, it’s hard to prepare for a guy like DDP. There’s nobody who can mimic his style. Chimaev will have to make adjustments on the fly. DDP is Chimaev’s toughest matchup at middleweight. If he walks through DDP, he will probably be the champ for a long time. But that’s big if. DDP’s special power is that everybody underestimates him. There’s no doubt that Chimaev is doing the same thing. He plans on bullying DDP early. If that doesn’t happen, DDP will do DDP shit and find a way to take home the dub.   

Lerone Murphy (+155): I’m shocked that Murphy is the dog. That’s crazy to me. Aaron Pico will be making his UFC debut after spending nearly his entire career in Bellator. Murphy will be head and shoulders better than anyone Pico has ever fought. Murphy is painfully technical and rarely makes mistakes. And his experience fighting some of the best featherweights in the world will give him a big edge against Pico. Edson Barboza, Dan Ige, and Josh Emmett: Those are Murphy’s previous three opponents. All of which are better than anyone Pico has faced. Murphy can out-point Pico from range and put him on his back if Pico gets too aggressive. I thought the odds for this one would be flipped.    

Gerald Meerschaert (+180): Twenty-noine career submissions vs. six career submission losses. The mat is lava for Michal Oleksiejczuk (I just spelled that for the first time without having to look it up). Like when you were a kid playing on the jungle gym and couldn’t touch the ground because it would burn you alive. As soon as one cheek touches the mat, Oleks has to scramble back to his feet. If he allows Meerscheart to establish the top position, it’s a wrap. BUT, what you’re really gambling on when you bet on Meerschaert is if he will try to wrestle or not. Inexplicably, this guy refuses to wrestle from time to time. He will stand and trade the slowest punches you have ever seen until he is KO’d or the final bell rings and the ref raises his opponent’s hand. Meerscheart is always a true gamble.   

Pick ‘Em

Gerald Meerschaert (+180) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-215)  

Winner: Michal Oleksiejczuk 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Jessica Andrade (-140) vs. Lupita Godinez (+120)  

 Winner: Lupita Godinez 

Method: Decision 

Chase Hooper (-300) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+250)  

 Winner: Chase Hooper 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Edson Barboza (-145) vs. Drakkar Klose (+125) 

Winner: Edson Barboza 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Bryan Battle (-165) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (+140) 

Winner: Bryan Battle 

Method: Decision 

Karine Silva (-210) vs. Dione Barbosa (+175) 

Winner: Karine Silva 

Method: Decision 

Baysangur Susurkaev ( ) vs. Eric Nolan ( ) 

Winner: Baysangur Susurkaev 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Alibi Idiris ( ) vs. Joseph Morales ( ) 

Winner: Alibi Idiris 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.