Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Magomed Ankalaev (-285) vs. Alex Pereira (+230)

Ankalaev: DK: $8.9k | Pereira: DK:$7.3k

It’s been six months (the longest layoff of his UFC career) since we last saw the “Fist God,” Alex Pereira. Where has he been? In rehab. Yo! Hit that Amy Winehouse “Rehab!” They tried to make Alex go back to rehab, but he said, “No, no, no!” It was his second time enrolled in a twelve-step program. The first time occurred after his KO loss to Israel Adesanya. Alex tripped on the first step and relapsed immediately after introducing himself, “Hi, my name is Alex, and I’m addicted to kicking ass.” Then a car pulled up outside, and Alex busted out that bish like the Kool-Aid Man. He immediately went on a binge worthy of a side plot in a fourth installment of The Hangover, kicking five asses in a span of little over a year.   

After Alex suffered a second UFC loss—this time to Magomed Ankalaev—he was involuntarily committed to a halfway house, where he was roomed with Scott Spezio, Ryan Leaf, and Delonte West. Weeks ago, Alex earned his first sobriety coin: One Year Without Kicking an Ass. It has now been almost exactly one revolution around the sun since Khalil Rountree delivered his victim impact statement following UFC 307. However, a recovering addict’s true test arrives when facing real-world situations. Now, ahead of UFC 320, Alex has been granted participation in a work release program. He will be thrust immediately into a high-pressure scenario: the temptation of a revenge ass-kicking. Magomed Ankalaev, the ass that got away, presents a nearly overpowering urge to an ass-kicking addict. Will Alex resist or give in to temptation and regain his belt? For lead Alex not into temptation... 

I don’t know what it was, but Alex looked bored against Ankalaev back in March. He looked like I used to in Ms. Bob’s fifth-period Civics class, struggling to stay awake. “In America, we have what is called a democracy...” Yeah, yeah, whatever. But even in my deepest Ms. Bob’s class stupors, would I have ever dared to dream about beating Alex Pereira in a game of Hungry Hungry Hippos, much less in a cage fight. Then have the audacity to wear his belt out of the cage. And if I did, I’d wake up and immediately slip into his DM’s, “I’m sorry, Alex. I didn’t mean to take your belt. It was a dream. It wasn’t real. It didn’t mean anything. I swear. I was telling myself to wake up the entire time.” Anywho, Alex looked like he had taken a nap before the first Ankalaev fight and was literally sleepwalking in the Octagon. And Ankalaev still couldn’t take him down, going 0-12 on attempts. Alex never let his hands go, never uncorked that infamous left hook like a bottle of bubbly in an MLB locker room after making the playoffs—not winning the World Series.   

But don’t let a bad performance make you think that Alex isn’t Him anymore. He’s still the pound-for-pound scariest MF with more stare-down KOs than your favorite fighter has actual KOs. Your worst nightmare is meeting her parents for the first time, and Alex Pereira answers the door and tosses a pair of boxing gloves at you like he did to Jamahal Hill at the UFC Performance Center, only for you to get towed away later for parking in the Friend Zone. I hate to eat horse shit at Ankalaev’sparade, but Alex beat himself that night. There wasn’t a discrepancy in skill, technique, or tactics. Alex just fought a bad, uninspired fight. Watching him fight is still like watching MJ in the 2-3 or Kobe in the vertical infinity sign. Like watching Bird in the Garden, Jimi Hendrix at Woodstock, Eddie Murphy rocking the stage in the purple suit, and Ali in Manila. Or like watching Michelangelo carve David’s David. Don’t ask why, ask how?   

Output, keeping his back off the cage, and defending leg kicks are the keys for Pereira. While he is a prominent leg kicker, he had no answer for Ankalaev’s attacks to the legs. Alex also had no answer for Ankalaev’s overhand left. The only knockdown came in the second round in favor of Ankalaev; Alex was fortunate that it happened at the bell, which prevented Ankalaev from following up. Overall, Alex just wasn’t aggressive and rarely threw combinations, relying primarily on his nuclear left hook as a check-counter. To improve, he needs to put that left hook behind a one-two, hiding it at the end of short combinations. If Alex was worried about ending up on his back in the first matchup, however, he needn’t be, as he defended every attempt. Even so, he never gained enough confidence to let his hands go.    

But, a lot of credit must go to Ankalaev. He looked like he had come a long way from that time when Jan Blachowicz left him with a pair of wooden legs in a fight that ended in a draw. Since that night, Ankalaev has had to bust out the blue tents and call the Orkin man once a year. In case of an emergency, Ankalaev can use his legs as flotation devices. Homie has those wooden clog feet, like he works in a maternity ward. But all that is old shit because Ankalaev is the champ. I thought the key to winning would be Ankalaev’s wrestling, but he had his best moments on the feet. His kicks and his left hand had Pereira confused and looking awkward all night.   

I would abandon wrestling this time around if I were Ankalaev. It’s not like he can submit Pereira. Ankalaev has zero career submissions. He couldn’t submit his taxes. He couldn’t submit a CEO who was wearing only a pair of streaked chonies while in possession of a company credit card and a La Quinta presidential suite, if he had a latex body suit, six-inch stilettos, and a safety word: “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!” Homie never even watched Monday Night Raw and learned a Mandible Claw, Camel Clutch, or Crossface Chicken Wing. So why waste energy hunched over against the cage between Pereira’s legs unless that’s his idea of a good time?  

Ankalaev prefers to chase the KO like junkies chase the dragon – like Jerry and Stephen chase mediocrity. His kicking game is more diverse than Pereira’s, and his hands were sharper in the first fight. All he has to do is replace the time he spent fruitlessly chasing lazy takedowns with output on his feet. At the risk of sounding blasphemous, I’d say Ankalaev is the better kickboxer. At least defensively, he is sounder than Pereira. Pereira never had Ankalaev in trouble. Magomed out-struck Pereira noinety-four to seventy-six in the previous matchup and had Pereira rocked in the second round.   

(Checks odds) Cot daaaaaamn! Ankalaev is the (-260) favorite, and Pereira is the (+215) live-ass dog. I thought this would be a pick ‘em. Alex has to finish the fight. Ankalaev is better in MMA positions and does just enough to win. The play for Alex is a classic TKO/KO. The play for Ankalaev is another decision. His first instinct is to play it safe. I’m in a tough spot. I took back-to-back dogs on the last two cards and split them. Picking a third straight main event dog sounds crazy, especially after how Dominick Reyes went out last week... Fook it. Alex Pereira via TKO, round three. Put it on wax. 

Props

Ankalaev: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+1200) Dec (+140)  

Pereira: TKO/KO (+320) Sub (+3500) Dec (+900) 

Winner: Alex Pereira | Method: TKO Rd.3

Merab (-375) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+295)

Merab: DK: $9.3k | Sandhagen: DK: $6.9k

He receives the one-name treatment: Merab. Hit that Nas and Diddy “Hate Me Now!” You can hate him now. But he won’t stop now. You want to hate Merab so badly, but you’re finding it harder after every dub he stacks. This guy just grows on you like a fungus. Don’t hate, congratulate. Because you already know he’s going to do it again. Yo! Hit that Wu-Tang “Ya’ll Been Warned!” I know what you think when you watch Merab fight: “He’s not even that good. He just spams takedowns.” And you may be right. But it works. And don’t look now, but Merab is finishing fights. Sean O’Malley was begging for referee intervention in the third round. So, how does he do it? 

By turning the Octagon into a Call of Duty safe house with hordes of Merabs clawing at every opening. After each round, the number of Merabs doubles until not even an infinite amount of mystery boxes can save your ass. This guy could run a marathon like it’s a 100-meter sprint. Merab chases Freddy in Freddy’s dreams. He’s got Freddy hitting the pipe like Charlie Sheen just to stay awake. Homie turned Freddy into an insomniac. That’s a bad MF. If there’s an unbeatable Champ right meow, it’s Merab. Yeah, I said it. Merab never fades like the Olympic torch. For five rounds, he picks you up and carries you like a bride across the threshold. He treats you like furniture – like he’s a mover carrying a dresser down a flight of stairs. One Merab & A Van. He carries you like he’s taking you to bed after you fell asleep watching TV. No man alive can match Merab’s pace. Umar did for two and a half rounds, but looked like Princess Peach being carried away by Bowser in the fifth round. 

How many SLpM does Merab average? All of them. His hands are an endless combination. Merab actually averages more takedowns per fifteen minutes (nearly six) than significant strikes landed (four and a half). Against Petr Yan, Merab attempted fifty takedowns. And the time defending fifty takedowns is time not spent fighting. Merab adds Cory Sandhagen to his stack of dubs if he continues being Merab. He doesn’t have to change a thing. The opponent does.  

Now hit that Enter Sandman! Since Rocket City Trash Panda is officially over, Cory Sandhagen is now in full ass-kicking mode. Sandhagen looks like every mascot who has ever been unmasked by a shitty, poor sport from the opposing dugout, or from the outfield bleachers during half-price beer night. But don’t let that fool you, Sandhagen will deposit a foam boot up ya ass real quick. On his feet, Sandhagen is a walking Saw contraption. He’s a walking Rubik’s cube, morphing styles like a Skinwalker between exchanges. He can be a boxer one second and a Karate point fighter another. Sandhagen went through a mid-career crisis and suddenly became a wrestler/grappler for several fights. But that won’t be an option against Merab. Sandy has to KO Merab.   

He has to pull out all the stops like Keanu Reeves on that speeding bus. Yo! Hit that Pat Benatar “Hit Me With Your Best Shot!” Sandhagen has to hit Merab with his best shot—that Frankie Edgar flying knee or that Marlon Moraes spinningwheel kick. The sandman has to step outside the sandbox. He has to hit Merab with some shit Merab doesn’t see coming. His only chance is to go for broke like Skid Row. And he has to scramble to his feet when he gets taken down. Not even cats can stay on their feet against Merab. Only Jose Aldo is immune to Merab’s takedowns. Sandhagen has to set traps like Kevin McCallister while maintaining lateral movement and use Merab’s aggression against him, walking him into a big strike. 

Merab is the heavy (-370) favorite, and Sandhagen is the (+285) mangy dog. Most fighters are mangy dogs against Merab. Sandhagen had a hard time dealing with Umar’s takedown attempts. Merab’s are on a different level. Sandhagen has togo to the plate sitting on a fastball and put his best swing on it. The play for Sandhagen is a TKO/KO. NObody will beat Merab in a decision. You have to separate him from his consciousness. The play for Merab is a decision. Sandhagen is an excellent grappler with solid submission defense. He can survive on his back and in transitions. Merab via decision. On wax.   

Props

Merab: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+900) Dec (-225) 

Sandhagen: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+2500) Dec (+600)

Winner: Merab Dvalishvili | Method: Decision

Jiri Prochazka (-190) vs. Khalil Rountree (+160)

Jiri: DK: $8.5k | Tong Po: DK:$7.7k

Yo! Hit that Earth, Wind & Fire “Boogie Wonderland!” Jiri Prochazka, aka The Encino Man, is back. Jiri is elemental and straight out of the Ice Age. And we ain’t talking Pixar. Jiri was discovered by the UFC after being thawed in a block of ice with a blow dryer. WTF is fighting a human being when you’re used to fighting sabretooth tigers and velociraptors on some Turok the Dinosaur Hunter type-ish? My man was on that Jurassic Park shit during the Jurassic period. Jiri is one of one; there is nobody else like him in MMA. And so far, only one man has beaten him in the UFC, Alex Pereira. A third shot at the Fist God could be in play if Pereira and Jiri both win on Saturday night. But don’t sleep on Tong Po, aka Khalil Rountree, the man who gave Pereira his toughest fight inside the Octagon. This one is a clash of styles and an absolute banger.  

Jiri Prochazka’s special weapon is that he’s different. You have to go back to the days of the Black Plague, castles, and dragons to find a guy like Jiri. He’s a walking R.R. Martin character straight out of A Game of Thrones. What makes Jiri’s style so unique is his movement. “Be water, my friend.” Jiri flows like white water rapids – class six type-shit. He’ll lure you into a firefight and capsize your ass real fookin’ quick. Jiri uses unorthodox movement to hypnotize opponents like a less-sexy Geisha. When Jiri starts flowing, it looks like a B-Boy about to start spinning on his head. There’s no telling where his punches are coming from and when he is going to throw them. You just see a guy moving like he’s at a rave, minus the pacifier and glowsticks. And the next thing you know, you’re looking up at Herb Dean, wondering WTF happened to Whoopi Goldberg. You can’t train for a guy who trains with Polar Bears at the zoo. You have to roll up in that bish with a tranq gun and a big ass net. 

Against Tong Po, Jiri just has to do Jiri shit. He has to be confusing and erratic. Jiri’s major malfunction is that his movement often leads to him being out of position. He’s too easy to hit, even though he never stops stance-switching and twitching. He tends to herk and jerk right into big strikes. Like a Pereira head kick or left hook. Jiri will have to be a little less careless with his pocket entries against Tong Po. He has to enter at angles and not get caught with his feet and shoulders square in front of Rountree. Although he’s tough to finish, Jiri gets rocked in every fight. You just can’t tell because when he starts stepping in potholes, it looks like Jiri just being Jiri. Averaging over five and a half SLpM, Jiri will be the higher output striker compared to Khalil’s more judicious three and a half. Jiri can steal close rounds with higher output. 

Jiri and Rountree have a connection: They share custody of Jamahal Hill. Rountree gets Jamahal on the weekends. He takes Jamahal to the local park and pushes him on the swings. Both fighters are coming in off drubbing Jamahal. Never forget the most violent thirty seconds in UFC history when Rountree destroyed Karl Roberson. That body kick to a downed Roberson was straight disrespectful. My man needs Aretha to teach him some R-E-S-P-E-C-T. That was the moment that catapulted Rountree and transcended into an elite fighter.   

Pay attention to Rountree’s stances during the fight. He’s a man of one thousand stances, like when you’d play Wiffle Ball in the front yard and switch up your batting stances from Julio Franco to Frank Thomas to Ken Griffey Jr.  Khalil will switch his stance/style completely in between rounds. It’s like you’re fighting a different opponent each round. And Khalil throws nothing but Thor hammers. Life flashes before your eyes with every strike he throws. Left hook: The day you took your training wheels off. Right hook: A giant hand is grabbing and pulling you towards the light. Left round kicks: You’re at your pet hamster's funeral, and your dad is going full Super Mario Bros with the plunger. Khalil has so much power that the U.S. government accuses him of having nuclear weapons. UN weapons inspectors check his hands before fights because he has those enriched uranium hands.  

Khalil’s major malfunction is his unsteady output. Sometimes, he just doesn’t throw enough. Rountree attacks in short, wild bursts, launching long, wide arcing hooks from his waist; however, he leaves a lot of dead air between exchanges, which against Jiri could cost him in the judges’ eyes. Notably, Alex Pereira is the only man since 2021 to beat Rountree, and in that span, Rountree has won six of seven fights. If he can find a consistent pace, he can beat Jiri with more technical kickboxing. 

Jiri will be the (-185) favorite, and Tong Po will be the (+160) live-ass dog. Hit that Method Man “Suspect Chin Homies!” Jiri’s chin is sus. It can’t be trusted like farts after a night of drinking. Khalil’s hands travel along a plane that will circumvent Jiri’s porous defense. They land around traditional guards. I see Khalil as the bigger finishing threat. Early in his career, Khalil could get got. But since 2019, Khalil has only been finished once, and that came against the Fist God. The play for Khalil is a TKO/KO, and I like playing Jiri for a decision. Without a finish, Khalil is more likely to be the Fantasy dud because he uses his output more sparingly. Damn, this is a tough one. There’s too much value in the dog to pass up. Give me Khalil Rountree via TKO, round three. Put it on wax.

Props

Jiri: TKO/KO (+100) Sub (+1000) Dec (+550)

Rountree: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+3500) Dec (+400)

Winner: Khalil Rountree | Method: TKO Rd.3

Josh Emmett (+350) vs. Youssef Zalal (-455)

Emmett: DK: $6.8k | Zalal: DK: $9.4k

Youssef Zalal has been on a rags-to-riches-to-rags-to-riches story. This is a guy who went the distance in a short-notice matchup against Ilia Topuria in Topuria’s debut. Topuria might be the only man in the featherweight division who could out-grapple Zalal. If I went the distance with Ilia Topuria, it would be written on my Tombstone: Here lies Chris Guy, who once went three full rounds with Ilia Topuria without getting his block knocked off. That’s it; fuck the dates and prayer hands. Zalal is a tough matchup for anyone because he combines slick striking with elite grappling. You have to be prepared for an MMA fight against him. 

Zalal’s expertise is on the mat. This guy moves on the mat like the Ring girl crawling out of the well. He moves like he has eight legs. Ol’ arachnid-ass MF. When you watch Zalal grapple, you’re overcome by an urge to smash him with a shoe. That’s that Zalalaphobia. He’s a grappling wizard with a degree from Hogwarts. Fook a Patronus spell; Zalal has choke spells. And he’ll cast one on you as soon as your ass hits the mat. Eight of his noine career subs came via rear-naked or arm triangle chokes. And check it: Zalal finished six of his last seven fights (four inside the UFC).   

Zalal is 17-5 with four TKOs/KOs and noine subs. He’s good because he doesn’t have to solely rely on his grappling. He’s crafty like Etsy on his feet. But his major malfunction is his output. He averages only three SLpM. His output is like a leaky faucet. Like a forty-two-year-old's stream. That’s that forty-two-year-old prostate output. His hands dribble down his legs. Yo! Hit that Dave Chappelle “P*ss On You!” Drip, drip, drip... his hands leave the Octagon looking like a public toilet seat. But none of that matters if he can get Josh Emmett, who rocks a forty-six percent takedown defense, to the mat. The last thing Zalal wants to do is get stuck in a kickboxing match with the guy who put Bryce Mitchell in a coma. 

Josh Emmett famously turned Bryce into a human Shake Weight. Bryce looked like those old-school vibrating motel beds that you put a quarter in. Thug Nasty slept through his alarm and missed the bus. When he woke up, the world outside looked like West World 3. Even though Emmett is forty years old, he still keeps that thang right with him. That right hand is still sitting shottie. Emmett’s right hand is a .30-06, and he can barely handle the kick. He’ll still turn you into a Boeing whistleblower real quick. When he hit Bryce, it sounded like Emmett’s hand hit brain. This Nomak-looking MF is the only man to ever win a round against Blade. And he one-up'd Zalal, going five rounds with Ilia Topuria. WTF is Josh Emmett made of? Hemp. Definitely hemp.  

What makes Emmett special is his power. He’s not the most intricate striker – there's no fancy footwork or lateral movement. But he has more power than the 1% of the 1%. He has more power than foreign lobbies. And he’s built like a tank. Master P rocks a Josh Emmett chain. When Emmett lands, it makes ‘em say, “Uuh! Nah, nah, nah, nah.” But none of that will matter if he can’t stay upright against Zalal. His ground game is suspect like old-school BOLOs. The good news is, Zalal has good but not great takedowns. And if Emmett can stuff one or two, Zalal will relent to a kickboxing match. And Emmett will win the striking exchanges. His output is only just over three and a half SLpM, but the impact of his strikes makes up for a lot in the judges’ eyes. 

I volcano’d the bong when I looked at the odds. Zalal is the (-450) favorite, and Emmett is the (+335) live-ass dog. Emmett is so live that you already know I’m going to pick him. How the fook can you pass up on that right hand at those odds? How, Sway!? If the takedown well runs dry on Zalal (and it will), Emmett will take over the fight. I see Emmett on his back in the first round and having to make a late comeback. Eventually, Emmett will stuff a takedown. And after he does, the fight will be all Emmett. The hardest thing to do in MMA is to wrestle/grapple for fifteen to twenty minutes. Zalal absolutely has to win the first two rounds. The question is, can Emmett finish Zalal, a man who, in twenty-two career scraps, has never been finished? I’m not sure. It will come down to who wins round two. Josh Emmett via decision. On wax.   

Props

Emmett: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+3500) Dec (+750)  

Zalal: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+500) Dec (-200)

Winner: Josh Emmett | Method: Decision

Joe Pyfer (-270) vs. Abus Magomedov (+220)

Pyfer: DK: $8.7k | Abus: DK: $7.5k

The Candyman is back. Abus has been more like Atrain lately, turning the Octagon into a crossroads and his opponents into Matt Hughes. After Sean Strickland turned the Candyman into a Candyass, Abus has been shining like he’s candy painted, making waves in the asphalt as he cruises up the rankings. Since he found the “just right” porridge when it comes to pacing, Abus has been stacking dubs – a winner of three straight. His problem has been his cardio if he can’t salt away some of the clock from the top position. Wrestling helps Abus manage his gas tank.   

When Abus has to stand and bang, he treats his body like a rental car, redlining that shit everywhere he goes. I’m talking about that governor kicking in while driving through a construction zone where fines are doubled. He just flippantly strings together combinations until his tank is on E. Which is usually at the end of one round. My man puts his body on the line like Leatherface hanging his laundry out to dry when Abus is forced to strike for long stretches. That’s why he needs takedowns. He uses the top position like a state-mandated fifteen-minute break. He kicks his feet up and tells the ref he’s off the clock. He busts out the clock sign with posable hands, “Be Back In...” Homie uses the top position like he’s test-driving mattresses at Sleep Train. He just lies there until the manager kicks him out. Bet a homie won’t get a full doctors recommended eight hours of sleep while lying on top of you.   

Against Joe Pyfer, Abus has to get the fight to the mat. He has strong striking, including nasty up-the-middle kicks. He has those Brandon Aubrey sixty-four-yard field goal kicks. However, his path to victory is exposing Pyfer’s sixty percent takedown defense. Abus is far from AKhamzat when it comes to takedowns, but he stays committed. Output-wise, both fighters average around three and a half SLpM. It will be a moderate output affair should the fight remain standing for three rounds.  

Joe Pyfer, AKA Pyfe Dawg, AKA Time To Play the Pyfer, AKA The Pied Pyfer, AKA Pyfer Sutherland, is back. If he lands his right hand, he’ll put you in his Pyfer and smoke you. Homie got the bag, but we ain’t talkin’ pay days. My man will bag you like groceries. “Paper or plastic?” They don’t call him Bodybagz for nothing. His fights are abridged versions. Pyfer doesn’t like to stay late at the office. He takes PTO time for the second and third rounds. Never forget when he left Marc-Andre Barriault face down on the mat like Bob Knight in his grave, so the world can kiss his ass. On his feet, Pyfer is a right-hand extremist with excellent body work. His hands will skewer your liver and small intestines, along with some pineapples and bell peppers. When you drop your hands to defend, he tees off like John Daly. 

Overall, Pyfer has the aura of an early 1900s boxer when rounds were unlimited. Pyfer highlights look like they should be in black and white and filmed at twelve frames per second. If the fight stays standing, Pyfer will have a decided edge in power. But don’t forget the Jack Hermansson fight. Jack smoked that Pyfer pack and made smoke rings out of him. He hotboxed his Grammy’s station wagon with Pyfer. Passerby’s thought that shit was on fire. Jack’s gas tank is like the spare can you keep in the shed. In his previous fight against Kelvin Gastelum, Joe lacked output late, and the fight went to a rare decision. Much like Abus, Pyfer needs to find the correct pacing that will allow him to have a consistent output over three rounds.   

Pyfer will be the (-240) favorite, and Abus will be Adog, returning (+200). This fight is closer than the odds. Abus’s long, lanky reach will cause Joe problems on the feet. He will have to take risks to close the distance, which will leave him vulnerable to level changes. Abus can win this fight if he clinches and presses Pyfer against the cage while working takedowns. He can sap some of Pyfer’s energy by making him defend takedowns. The play for this one is a decision. I think this will be a low-output, low-Fantasy scoring affair without a finish. I can see these guys showing each other a little too much respect on the feet. Am I really gonna take four dogs out of five on the main card? The pick ‘em will be feast or famine come Saturday night. Abus Magomedov via decision. Wax on, wax off.  

Props

Abus: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+1000) Dec (+500)  

Pyfer: TKO/KO (+120) Sub (+500) Dec (+370)

Winner: Abus Magomedov | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Khalil Rountree ($7.7k): This week’s Value Menu features some big names. I think Rountree is the finishing threat in his matchup against Jiri. Rountree took a shit ton of punishment before succumbing to Alex Pereira’s onslaught. But Khalil didn’t get slept. He had to take a knee because he couldn’t take any more damage. And he had Pereira hurt early in that fight. If the Khalil who fought Pereira shows up, he will have a good shot not only beating Jiri but also finishing Jiri. Even with all his unorthodox movements, Jiri is very hittable. Hittable like Meek Mill at a Diddy party. The key for Rountree will be not letting Jiri get too far ahead on the striking stats. He has to fill in the lengthy gaps between his explosive blitzes.   

Alex Pereira ($7.3k): Are you kidding me? Pereira on the Value Menu!? The odds for this one are a little skewed. Pereira wasn’t outclassed in the first fight. He just didn’t show enough urgency getting his back off the cage, especially late. Ankalaev went 0-12 on takedown attempts. And he wasn’t ever even close to getting Pereira to the mat. Also, for whatever reason, Pereira never let his left hand go. He never committed to his best weapon, the left hook. I wouldn’t mind seeing Pereira switch to southpaw once in a while to mirror Ankalaev’s stance just to throw some inside low kicks. Pereira attacked with only outside low kicks. Overall, I think Alex only needs some minor adjustments to win this one. And, of course, his upside is a TKO/KO finish.  

Andre Muniz ($7.1k): There’s only one reason why Andre Muniz is on the value menu: Edmen Shahbazyan is his opponent. Edmen’s gas tank is like the little red one you carry on the side of the road when you run out and have no cell service to call AAA. Both fighters are better grapplers than strikers and have suspect takedown defense. Whoever winds up in the top position first could win this one. Edmen will have the advantage on the feet in the first round, but after, that it will be fairly even. And if Edmen slows down, Muniz can take over with his wrestling/grappling. Muniz has fifteen career submissions, and it wasn’t too long ago that Gerald Meerschaert submitted Shahbazyan. Output-wise, Muniz will be a Fantasy flop. But his upside is a submission or TKO from the top position should Shahbazyan fade, which is his typical M.O. 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Josh Emmett ($6.8k): Josh Emmett’s right hand is on the Clearance Rack. If he lands that MF, it’s over. Of course, he has to stay on his feet. Emmett is on the Clearance Rack because of his forty-six percent takedown defense. That’s a bad look when facing a grappling wizard like Youssef Zalal. But Zalal’s takedowns are not as elite as his grappling once he gets you down. There will come a point when Zalal can’t get Emmett to the mat. The only question is, will it be too late for Emmett to mount a comeback? Emmett’s upside is a TKO/KO, but he can also outpoint Zalal on the feet and deliver good value for a Clearance Rack pick. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Alex Pereira (+230): I might as well copy and paste the Value Menu. Alex Pereira at plus-money is an automatic Andy Jackson face down on the table. I couldn’t log into my Bovada account fast enough when I saw these odds. If Alex shows urgency getting his back of the cage and lets go of his left hand, he can win this fight. He doesn’t have to do much else different from the first fight. His takedown defense was flawless, but he got controlled in the clinch. He was also caught off guard by Ankalaev’s kicking game. No doubt Ankalaev is just a bad matchup for Pereira, but this is fookin’ Alex Pereira, the man with the best singular strike in MMA. After a loss, Pereira will come out more aggressively this time around. 

Khalil Rountree (+160): This is a bet against Jiri’s chin. Khalil will hurt Jiri eventually. Can he finish Jiri? That’s a different question. Again, I think Rountree is the finishing threat in this equation. I don’t see Jiri finishing Rountree after what Rountree withstood in the Pereira fight. Khalil can limit Jiri’s movement with round kicks. He has classic Muay Thai round kicks and can use them to corral Jiri when he starts to get the outside angle. And he will have the power advantage. Jiri hurts you with shit you don’t see coming. Khalil just hits you with bombs. I like his chances of landing one on Jiri’s chin. 

Chris Gutierrez (+340): Gutierrez will be the better striker against Farid Basharat. The Basharat brothers are two cerebral fighters. Farid is severely technical in every discipline, but he’s not scary. He can out-point you with superior technique, but you’renot too worried about him turning you into a highlight reel. He has six career subs and only one TKO/KO. Farid isn’t dangerous on his feet. Gutierrez is. He’s got those Edward Scissorhands shins. He’ll decapitate your ankles on some Ichabod Crane type-ish. The best way to defend takedowns is by taking out the legs. If he can stay on his feet, I like his chances of pulling off the big upset.   

Pick ‘Em

Ateba Gautier (Heavy Favorite ) vs. Treston Vines (Big Dog) 

 Winner: Ateba Gautier 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Edmen Shahbazyan (-300) vs. Andre Muniz (+250) 

 Winner: Edmen Shahbazyan 

Method: Decision 

Chris Gutierrez (+340) vs. Farid Basharat (-460)  

 Winner: Farid Basharat 

Method: Decision 

Daniel Santos (-140) vs. Joo Sang Yoo (+120)  

 Winner: Daniel Santos 

Method: Decision 

Macy Chiasson (-200) vs. Yana Santos (+170) 

 Winner: Macy Chiasson 

Method: Decision 

Patchy Mix (-270) vs. Jakub Wiklacz (+220)  

 Winner: Patchy Mix 

Method: Decision 

Punahele Soriano (-280) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+230)  

 Winner: Punahele Soriano 

Method: Decision 

Ramiz Brahimaj (+240) vs. Austin Vanderford (-290) 

 Winner: Austin Vanderford 

Method: Decision 

Veronica Hardy (-675) vs. Brogan Walker (+460) 

 Winner: Veronica Hardy 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.