Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Tom Aspinall (-355) vs. Ciryl Gane (+280)

Aspinall: DK: $9.4k | Gane: DK:$6.8k

“Hello, how may I help you?”  

“I’d like to cancel my Tom Aspinall subscription.”  

“I can help you with that. It says your trial is ending soon. May I ask why you want to cancel?  

“You know, I’m just not buying him. I mean, he’s never even been in a fight.”  

“I see. You do know that Aspinall is the Undisputed Champion, right?”  

“Yeah, but he fought Curtis Blaydes for the belt.”  

“He’s 8-1 in the UFC with eight finishes, and his lone loss was a fluke injury.”  

“Sure. But his last four fights have averaged a minute or less in duration. Can he go three rounds? How about four or five? He’s only seen a second round once. I noticed his warranty covers first rounds only...”  

“Yes, that’s because he’s designed to win fights in under five minutes.”  

“Yeah, I don’t know. It's only a matter of time until he runs into some adversity. Can you guarantee he has that dog in him? You’re selling me a Ferrari, but what if he turns out to be a Toyota Frontrunner?”  

“Sir, Aspinall has been subjected to the highest level of training. And he has wins over Alexander Volkov and Sergei Pavlovich. Would you be interested in extending your trial period until after his title defense against Ciryl Gane? He’s 10-2 in the UFC, and his only losses came in title fights? 

“Ciryl Gane? I mean, he’s cool and all, but I thought Volkov beat him. I just think Aspinall might be a product of a historically weak heavyweight division. What if he fights Bones Jones at the White House next summer? I mean, there’s no way he runs through Bones. He can’t out-wrestle him. And he’s not a better striker.” 

“I appreciate your feedback, Sir. I assure you, Ciryl Gane’s fight IQ shrinks in title fights like he chugged a gallon of fluoride before the fight.” 

“You got me there. But even if he beats Gane, I’m just not sold. I’d ike to cancel.” 

“I see. Would you be interested in a thirty-day trial of Mauricio Ruffy?” 

“No.” 

“Reinier de Ridder?” 

“No.” 

“How about Joe Pyfer?” 

I hung up. Looks like I’m riding with Tom Aspinall for at least one more fight.  

I’ve been saying it for as long as the WKO has been around: I’m just not buying Tom Aspinall. He’s the best heavyweight, and it’s not even close. But that’s like getting an A on a test that you scored a 60% on because you’re in Special Ed and they grade on a curve. Gane will be the best fighter Aspinall has ever faced. And Gane has serious flaws. Aspinall has never been tested. He’s never even had a pop quiz. A prostate exam is a stiffer test than anything he’s ever faced. When that Vaseline gets to running down your thighs... Apsinall has spent less than three and a half minutes in the Octagon since 2022. As I was trying to explain to the customer service rep, we have no idea what a second round Aspinall looks like, much less a championship rounds Aspinall. But I guess that doesn’t matter if there isn’t anyone not named Bones Jones who can extend Aspinall that far.   

But I’m not trying to say Tommy isn’t good. He’s the perfect combination of speed, power, and footwork. Homie has that DeLorean hand speed. His hands are powered by plutonium. When Tommy Boy starts throwing hands, he ends up in a ring in 1955 with his grandmother parading around in a one-piece bathing suit, holding up the round number. And his level changes are just as quick. While you’re still getting punched in the face, you find yourself simultaneously in the air like he’s carrying you across the threshold. MF’ers in the crowd start throwing rice at your ass. Then he’s wrenching on your arm, and the next thing you know, you’re wiping your ass in the southpaw stance. Rinse and repeat all the way to 8-1 with eight finishes and a belt.  

But like that dweeb on the Sixth Sense sees dead people, I see holes. And I see plenty of holes in Aspinall’s striking. He has a bad habit of trading naked leg kicks for overhands in return. And he’s been dodging bullets like he’s campaigning in Pennsylvania. Dodging bullets like Ronald Reagan. He’s been throwing fireballs from a grass house. Been playing with fire, and his chin is kindling. A chin that he waves in the air like a flag. He flies that shit on a flagpole like the end of a Mario Bros round. And, of course, he’s never been in a real fight. He’s never even been in a heated argument inside the Octagon—not even a minor disagreement. Aspinall has never had passionate makeup grappling after getting into a fight. Is Ciryl Gane the man to finally push Aspinall past three minutes of Octagon time? 

IDK. Ciryl Gane tends to turn into Cereal Gone in title fights. Outside of two title fights, Gane is undefeated. When it comes to title fights, Gane turns into Johnny Knoxville in The Ringer. Twenty-four hours before his title fight, he’s not even allowed to have any food in liquid form for fear of drowning. He has to eat his Tootie Fruties dry. My man straight turns into Kirk Lazarus. Gane looks like the dude playing the dude disguised as another dude. 

“Or are you the dude who has no idea what dude he is and claims to know what dude he is?” 

“I know what dude I am!” 

But do you, Ciryl? Do you really? When the belt is on the line, Gane will go on a quest in the mountains of Nepal with a pack of Sherpas to find a way to lose. Like he did against Ngannou when Gane went for a heel hook in the fifth round and got reversed instead of riding out top control to a sure victory. Then running straight into a Bones takedown and getting choked against the cage. Gane has the striking to beat Aspinall. I trust his striking more. But his grappling will be his downfall.  

In many ways, these guys are very similar. Speed on the feet and power on the mat. Another question: What if Aspinall ends up on his back? But Gane’s path to victory is using his bladed Karate style on the feet to maintain range and stay out of reach of Aspinall’s quick blitzes. Forty-three percent: that’s Gane’s takedown defense. And that will be the key to the fight.  

Hit that Black Rob! “Like, Whoa!” Aspinall is the (-410) favorite, and Gane is the (+305) live dog. Non-title fight Gane can win this fight. If he’s smart, he should just take laps around the Octagon for the first five to seven minutes on some Daytona 500 type-shit. Make Aspinall chase him. Anything to get him out of the first round. Stay at range and stay upright. Gane’s jab is better than any weapon Aspinall has on his feet. At least from what little we’ve seen. We usually only see one or two exchanges, and the fight is over. Gane can win if he can draw it out. The only outcome of this fight is a TKO/KO, one way or the other. A Gane TKO/KO has a ton of value.   

RDR got exposed like Tyson’s cheeks last week. Quitting on the stool is diabolical work. I told him not to fook around and call him Brandon Allan. They don’t hear me, though. I picked Curtis Blaydes to beat Aspinall last year. I picked Pavlovich to beat him, too. But I just have no faith in Gane’s big fight mentality. He shits the bed and rolls around in it during big fights. Tom Aspinall via TKO... round TWO! Put that shit on wax!   

Props

Aspinall: TKO/KO (-125) Sub (+300) Dec (+1000)  

Gane: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+4500) Dec (+900) 

Winner: Tom Aspinall | Method: TKO Rd.2

Mackenzie Dern (-155) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+130)

Dern: DK: $8.6k | Jandiroba: DK: $7.6k

I call this one Beauty and the—Stop it! These ladies have fought once before. Mackenzie Dern won a tepid kickboxing match that night. This is a classic grappler vs. grappler matchup. And as you know, most of those turn into a trip to the garage to politic with Mary Jay. But this time, the tepid kickboxing match will be for the strawweight belt after Weili Zhang peaced out to fight Valentina. Dern is only two fights removed from taking a colossal beating against Jessica Andrade. Mackenzie Dern took a Mackenzie Dern weigh-ins beating, if you know what I mean. Andrade beat Dern so badly that Dern went from a 10 to a 9.7. Meanwhile, Virna Jandiroba is riding a five-fight dub streak. Normally, I would cue up the Mr. Nice Guys theme music and declare this matchup an official smoke break. But it does feature Mackenzie Dern. And the kids should be in bed by the time the co-main event begins... 

Mackenzie Dern is a Jiu-Jitsu Mozart, Di Vinci, Michelangelo—all that shit. If she gets you to the mat, she will tie you in a double Windsor, cinch you up, and rock you without a blazer on some business casual type-ish. She’ll double knot your ass like toddler shoes. If she gets you to the mat, she’ll have you bent out of shape, looking like a page ripped out of the Kama Sutra real quick. I know, I know. Don’t threaten me with a good time. She turns you into a contortionist. You have no idea which way is which. You don’t know your head from your ass when Dern starts Jiu-Jitsu'ing you. But Mackenzie Dern has a major grappling malfunction. 

She has Mackenzie Dern takedowns. Although Dern is Brazilian, she has American Pickers takedowns. Those garage sale takedowns. You catch some cat lady haggling over prices, “I’ll give you three dollars for this single leg.” Dern’s takedowns are like getting a toy on Christmas, and it doesn’t come with batteries. All the grappling in the world doesn’t matter if you can’t get the fight to the mat. But this is the rare case that Dern can rely on her striking. Dern is a placebo effect striker. She uses the power of suggestion. Her coach tells her she’s a good striker, and she goes out there as if she’s Alex Fookin’ Pereira. She strikes like nobody’s watching, winging wild haymakers all over the cage. But if she lands, she’ll knock your block off like gentrification.  

Virna Jandiroba’s kryptonite is a DMV eye exam. She gets there early, so she can memorize the chart. Virna is 22-3 but undefeated in staring contests. And Still! Jandiroba’s eyes look like Kenny Smith’s knees. Her eyes look like they got crossed up at a pick-up game. Fook snake eyes; a pair of dice rolls Jandiroba’s eyes. Virna is the one kid whose eyes actually got stuck like that. She’s the newest member of TLC: Lazy Eye. Jandiroba looks like Steve Buscemi in Mr. Deeds. But don’t get to thinkingshit is sweet. That’s an artificial sweetener, Pawtna. 

If this lady gets you to the mat, her ground control is like a permanent adhesive. She welds herself to you and drags you down like an anchor. From the top position, Jandi is like quicksand; the more you struggle, the deeper the shit you get into. She tangles your limbs with her limbs. Trying to work your way free is like trying to untangle Christmas lights. Virna has fourteen career subs but has won four of her last five by decision.   

Jandi’s major malfunction is her striking. She couldn’t hurt a feeling on her feet. She moves like tree sap—moves like turning over a Heinz 57 bottle. Her feet leave wet trails on the mat like snails. And her hands are stalled on the shoulder with the hazards blink, blink, blinking. You gotta set out flares for her hands. Jandi’s stand-up combines slow hands and archaic footwork. She lost the first match against Dern because she has no real fundamentals to fall back on. Jandi managed to land sixty-two significant strikes in the first fight. She also recorded the only takedown of the fight. If she can’t get Dern to the mat and match grappling wits with her, she’ll lose a boring kickboxing match.   

Dern is the (-165) favorite, and Jandi is the (+140) live-ish dog. Best-case scenario: this turns into a grappling firefight between two of the best Jiu-Jitsu players in the game, male or female. Worst-case scenario: Dern lands some punches here and there over twenty-five minutes and walks away with an uneventful title victory. The play for this one is a decision. I think the ground games will cancel each other out, even if Jandi ends up on top. Dern should be able to club her way to the belt if she can stay upright. Mackenzie Dern via decision. On wax.   

Props

Jandiroba: TKO/KO (+2000) Sub (+450) Dec (+275) 

Dern: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+250) Dec (+240)

Winner: Mackenzie Dern | Method: Decision

Umar Nurmagomedov (-625) vs. Mario Bautista (+455)

Umar: DK: $9.6k | Bautista: DK:$6.6k

The man who won two rounds against Merab is back. Umar Nurmagomedov, AKA Harold and Umar, AKA Fumar, AKA Umar Cum Laude. Umar is making his return after hanging up a “Won Two Rounds Against Merab” banner in the gym rafters next to the Lakers bubble chip and the Asstros 2017 “chip.” If I won two rounds against Merab, I’d paint it all over my car like mini vans when someone’s kid makes All-Stars in Little League and drive at parade float speeds all around town. I’d have it tattooed on my face like a millennial rapper. Umar got off to a great start against Merab, but not even Umar could keep the pace. By the end of the fight, Merab was carrying Umar around the cage like furniture – like he was redecorating the Octagon. But all that is old shit. Until the day he retires, Umar will always be one fight away from a title shot. U could make Umar vs. Merab a seven-fight series. He remains the Merab haters’ best hope to see the champ dethroned.  

I crowned Umar on the WKO before his debut. Hit that Denny Greene! “You wanna crown his ass, then crown him!” Early on, I was enthralled by Umar’s unique striking style. I thought he could win fights with his striking alone. But slowly, it gotexposed like indecent exposure. Umar might have to register after Merab exposed him. Take away his dominant wrestling, and Umar is all kicks. He has decent hand speed and excellent aggression, but his striking is built to complement his wrestling. He is the only guy I’ve seen level change off his jab. Usually, wrestlers level change off their power hand because throwing a right hand is the same motion as shooting a double leg. But Umar’s best weapon on his feet is the question mark kick. 

Umar’s question mark kick will have you questioning everything: Why are some farts hot? How did the ancient Egyptians transport 2.5-ton blocks of limestone over five hundred miles away from the quarry before the invention of the wheel? Does Heaven really have a ghetto? The question mark kick is a low kick feint that can be turned into a mid or high kick in one smooth motion. You have no idea whether to defend high or low. Against Merab, Umar never really unleashed his best weapon. Against Mario Bautista, I expect Umar to use the question mark kick to set up his hands and subsequently his takedowns. Outside of Merab, Umar has the best takedowns of any of the lighter weight classes. If Umar gets hold of a pinkie toe, you’re going down. In addition to four and a half SLpM, Umar averages over three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes.  

Umar has a cult following, and surely, they’re already making plans for the Merab rematch. But don’t sleep on “Super” Mario Bautista. Don’t you dare call him Mario Lopez. My man will knock your block off like a question mark box. Against Umar, Mario will need a star power-up. He’ll have to get outside of his usual technical shell and wild out – jump over the flagpole at the end of the level or some shit. Mario is renowned for his exceptional technical skills both on his feet and on the mat. He doesn’t make mistakes; he won’t beat himself. That’s why he has won eight in a row and ten of eleven. But to beat the elite of the division, he will have to spice things up.  

Overall, Mario’s style is fairly sterile. His style is sexy like beige Ross clearance rack lingerie. Sexy like twin beds pushed together after Happy Hour Shirley Temple’s at Chili’s. He won’t seduce you with fancy footwork or exceptionally fast hands. But he will methodically beat you with sound fundamentals. Like Mammy’s in the ‘80s, Mario will kick your ass anywhere: on the mat, on the feet, in the communion line, or at your kid’s Three Little Bears Operetta. Every path to victory against Mario is hazardous like train rides in India. Every path turns into some Wrong Turn type shit. You end up looking for refuge at a decrepit house inhabited by inbred cannibal hillbillies. Just ask Patchy Mix. Mario turned Patchy into Trail Mix. The kind without M&M’s. The type with bird seeds in it. Against Umar, Mario will have to rely on his striking. He will be a more technical/traditional striker. The key will be Mario’s sixty-seven percent takedown defense. That’s not a good look going into a fight against a Nurmagomedov.  

Umar will be the (-625) favorite, and Bautista will be the disrespectful (+430) mangy dog. These odds are a little too wide for me. Bautista is a dope fighter. He made his debut against Cory Sandhagen in 2019 and has only lost once since. It will be impossible to stay on his feet early. But if Bautista can defend some takedowns and force some stand-up stretches, he can at least make this fight interesting. The play for this one is a decision. It’s impossible to finish Umar, and Bautista is too well-rounded to get exposed in any area. But Umar is a special fighter – the best not named Merab. Umar Nurmagomedov via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Umar: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+350) Dec (-165)

Bautista: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+4500) Dec (+700)

Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov | Method: Decision

Alexander Volkov (+165) vs. Jailton Almeida (-200)

Volkov: DK: $7.4k | Almeida: DK: $8.8k

Pops from Don’t Be a Menace to South Central While Drinking Your Juice in the Hood is back. From the day Jailton Almeida drove his parents home from the hospital, he has been the man of the house, laying down ground rules, “If you're gonna be staying here, you’re ‘gone have to follow some rules: No smokin’ my shit, don’t let me catch you drinkin’ my shit, and if you bring any of them honeys up in here, make sure I holler at them first.” Since day one, when he held up the doctor who delivered him by the ankles and slapped his ass, Jailton Almeida has been a man amongst boys. As a kid, he attended his own Parent/Teacher conferences, signed his own Progress Reports, and walked behind the curtain at the local video store without showing ID. Should he son Alexander Volkov, Almeida will be on the short list of title shots.   

Almeida is a wrestler/grappler first, second, and third. This guy burrows under the mat like the worms in Tremors. You just feel the earth shake before it opens beneath you, and Almeida swallows you whole. The best way to escape from JailtonAlmeida after he shoots a double leg from clear across the cage, picks you up, and slams you is to play dead like a soldier at Gettysburg. Hide under bodies until the sound of mortar fire is replaced with that of squawking carrion birds. When he gets hold of you, Almeida slowly squeezes the life out of you like a boa constrictor until he consumes, and the outline of your body is visible in his torso.  

From the top position, Almeida is a perfect mix of ground and pound and submission hunting. He has that Donkey Kong ground and pound, throwing haymakers on the mat like he’s standing up. This MF hands out nothing but Raja Jackson beatings. You might think it's a work, but nobody told Almeida. Homie gets handed a court date after every fight except the Curtis Blaydes fight. But you already know Almeida’s major malfunction. He might be the best grappler and worst striker in the heavyweight division. My man couldn't punch his way out of some spider web Halloween decorations. Almeida has no real functional skills on the feet. He can throw a punch and a football punt, but not much else. If he runs into a takedown wall against Volkov, he’s going up in flames like Paul Walker.   

Fook Aspinall vs. Gane, the main event should be Alexander Volkov’s back tat versus Sean Brady’s back tat. Volkov’s would be a (+250) live-ass dog. That tat looks like Volkov has the spirit of MF Doom rocking with him. Meek Mill needs Volkov’s tat to scare off Diddy. Like a scarecrow protecting crops. Now, quit fooking around and hit that 50 Cent “In Da Club!” When it comes to Volkov, let the haters hate and watch the dubs pile up. Volkov’s career has gotten a second wind. Before losing his previous fight against Gane (a fight he should’ve won), Volkov was on a four-fight dub streak. His only losses since 2020 came against Gane (twice) and Aspinall. Never forget, Volkov exposed Sergei Pavlovich like Black’s Beach in San Di – San Di – San Di-let-go-of-my-muhfookin-ego, CA. It’s easy to take one look at this Tiny from House of 1000 Corpses-looking galoot and think shit is sweet. But I’m here to tell you that it’s actually quite bitter. 

Volkov looks like the kid who had to play goalie in every sport when he was a kid. I’m talking, soccer, hockey, water polo, lacrosse... foosball. But he has been one of the best strikers in the division for a decade. I’ve always thought of Volkov as a better Stefan Struve. Volkov’s best weapon is his teeps. Yo! Hit that Outkast ft. Raekwon the Chef “Skew It on the Bar-B!” This guy is the only big man who uses teeps effectively to maintain range, interrupt opponents’ attacks, and knock MF’ers out. Volkov will serve your intestines on little pointy sticks. He has multiple TKOs via internal bleeding on his record. Volk will leave you with bloody stools, and I ain’t talking about bar fights. Homie will give you a bunion enema.   

Seventy-two percent vs. two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes: that’s what this matchup boils down to. Volkov’s takedown defense versus Alemeida’s takedowns. Alemeida chain wrestles, so Volkov will have to defend multiple attempts per shot. In previous fights, Volkov has displayed solid takedown, but he has also been dominated on the mat. As he was against Aspinall. If Volkov can get out of the first round, we’re going to Sizzler. He will box Almeida’s face... off. On some Castor Troy type-ish. The teep is the key for Volkov. He can use the up the middle attack to catch Almeida level changing.   

Almeida is the (-215) favorite, and Volkov is the (+180) live-ass dog. Volkov will have to survive a scary first round. And Almeida could ground him for fifteen minutes straight. But if at any time, the takedowns dry up, Volkov will win this fight. He might need some Joe Carter in the ‘93 World Series walk-off type-shit to pull it off, but I like his chances. Don’t do it. I’m gonna do it. He’s gonna spend the entire fight on his back... Fook it! Alexander Volkov via TKO, round three. Put that shit on wax! 

Props

Volkov: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+2200) Dec (+650)  

Almeida: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+140) Dec (+400)

Winner: Alexander Volkov | Method: TKO Rd.3

Aleksandar Rakic (-110) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-115)

Rakic: DK: $7.9k | Azamat: DK: $8.3k

This one has the potential to be a stand-up nuclear war. You might remember Aleksandar Rakic from the time he had Kuato from Total Recall growing out of his shin when he fought Jan Blachowicz. After eating a couple of low kicks, Rakic’s calf looked like Joanna’s 4head when Weili boxed her up. Homies were shooting their shot at Rakic’s leg after the fight. What? Rakic’s calf looked like a Mt. Rushmore head. They gave the growth on Rakic’s calf a fookin’ birth certificate. But times have changed. 

Rakic is now the one decapitating ankles. He’s the dude wearing the black hood, dropping the guillotine on ‘em. This guy has an acute disdain for calves. Somewhere along the road, some cankles hurt Rakic. This guy William Wallace’s calves. He’ll have you wiping your knees off on the Welcome mat real fookin’ quick. When he wants to be, Rakic is a Menace II Society on his feet. His arms are long like scaffolding, and he’ll punch holes in you like Kyle’s and drywall. He’ll leave you like streets in NOLA, riddled with potholes. Rakic will have the little orange vests out there at 5am doing construction to repave your ass. Against Jiri, Rakic showed he has that dog in him. And we know All Dogs Go to Heaven. Rakic went to war and earned a Purple Heart in that fight. He’ll need that dog against Murzakanov. Rakic will likely try to use his mid wrestling, but if it’s ineffective, I like his chances in a kickboxing match. He’s a little more diverse than Murzakanov. 

Don’t you dare call Azamat Murzakanov Asshat Murzakonov. Because his hands sound like anti-aircraft guns. He’s built like a Denny’s chef (cook if you want to be a Richard about it), but don’t let that fool you. Murzakanov has a special weapon: his left hand. When it comes to his left hand, Murzakanov is UGK and Simp C. Simpin’ left hands ain’t easy. It’s hard out here for a simp. On any given Saturday night, you can catch Azamat outside a local IHOP, parking lot simpin’ for left hands. His right hand lives vicariously through his left hand. It just sits in the corner of the telly while the left hand cracks asses. His right hand is just there to laugh at the left hand’s jokes and jump on any grenades that should be lobbed their way in the club. His right hand is just there to talk to the cops in case the night takes a crazy turn.

Okay, you get. He throws a lot of left hands. He ain’t lying when he says he can knock you out with one hand tied behind his back. If he lands that left hand, that little dweeb from Sixth Sense starts chatting you up. I’ll say this about his left hand: Murzakanov changes levels and angles, so even though it’s repetitive, it’s hard to tell where he’s targeting. Murzakanov has shown signs of a suspect gas tank in previous fights. If Rakic makes him wrestle early, Murzakanov could be in trouble late. 

Murzakanov will be the (-115) favorite, and Rakic will be the slight (-105) live-ass dog. This is a toss-up. Murzakanov could get out to an early lead, but Rakic has the power to match late. Rakic lost three in a row. But what a row it was: Jan Blachowicz (injury TKO), Jiri, and Magomed Ankalaev. This will be a step up in competition for Murzakanov. There’s a ton of value for a finish for either fighter, but I think this one might go the distance. Give me Aleksandar Rakic via decision. Wax on, wax off. 

Props

Rakic: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+1400) Dec (+225)  

Murzakanov: TKO/KO (+185) Sub (+2500) Dec (+400)

Winner: Aleksandar Rakic | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Mateusz Rebecki ($7.8k): You might remember Mateusz Rebecki from his fight of the year candidate against Chris Duncan just a few weeks ago. Rebecki took home the official L, but there were no real losers in that scrap. Rebecki is a world-beater on his feet and on the mat. He will be matched up against the nifty kickboxer Ludovit Klein. Although Klein is a kickboxer, he likes to wrestle away some of the clock, averaging one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. The red flag on Rebecki is his fifty percent takedown defense. Rebecki averages three and a half takedowns, but Ludovit defends at a much better rate, rocking a seventy-five percent takedown defense. If Rebecki can keep the fight standing, this will turn into a firefight. Rebecki is coming in off his best statistical performance, landing noinety-two strikes in a losing effort against Duncan.  

 Alexander Volkov ($7.4k): Volkov will have his work cut out for him early against Jailton Almeida. Likely, Volkov will spend the first half of the fight on his back. But I like his chances of finishing Almeida late if he can avoid getting submitted. Volkov has been submitted three times in his career, but only once in the UFC during his ten-year tenure. If at any time Almeida slows down and runs into a takedown wall, Volkov will dominate the stand-up. Without a finish, Volkov won’t light up the Fantasy scoreboard. He will have to be judicious when choosing his shots and will likely spend stretches on his back. But his upside is a late finish. If it weren’t for a bogus decision against Ciryl Gane in his most recent bout, it would be Volkov in a rematch against Aspinall for the title after winning five straight. 

 Nathaniel Wood ($7.7k): All you need to know about Nathaniel Wood is that his parents call him by his full name. Parents only use full names when you’re a bad MF. Wood is a perennially underrated scrapper. He has fast hands and slick wrestling/grappling to complement his striking. Quietly, Wood has won five of six with dubs over Morgan Charrier, Andre Fili, and Charles Jourdain. Wood will be at a huge power disadvantage against Jose Delgado. But Delgado will be making only his third UFC appearance. Wood is 9-3 in the UFC. His experience will dwarf Delgado’s. The key for Wood is mixing in takedowns and testing Delgado’s overall MMA skillset. I don’t like Wood’s chances in a straight kickboxing match, but he can level the playing field by using timely wrestling. If the fight stays standing, we could see a high-output firefight.   

 $6k Clearance Rack

Mario Bautista ($6.6k): You rarely find a fighter this good at the bottom of the Clearance Rack. Bautista averages over eighty Fantasy points per fight. He combines the perfect mixture of stand-up and groundwork. He can compete anywhere the fight goes or anywhere that his opponent’s weaknesses dictate. I see a lot of clinch work in his fight against Umar. Please don’t sleep on the clinch; it’s a sneaky way to rack up significant strikes. Mario will chip away within close quarters and extendcombinations if he can create the space. In a straight kickboxing match, Bautista and Umar would be a toss-up. For this price range, Bautista might be able to at least put some points on the board in a losing effort. But Super Mario ain’t planning on losing. I think he will be more competitive than expected.  

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Alexander Volkov (+165): Never forget the time Curtis Blaydes KO’d Jailton Almeida with elbows against the cage while Almeida sat on a lazy takedown attempt against the cage. Almeida can get got. And keep an eye out for Volkov’s up-the-middle teepkicks. They will be a strong deterrent against Almeida’s takedown attempts. The key for Volkvo is keeping his back off the cage. Almeida likes to blitz and push opponents against the cage to secure takedowns. Volkov needs to dominate the center of the Octagon. If he can create stand-up stretches between Almeida takedown attempts, he will pick Almeida apart on the feet. I like Volkov’s chances of a late comeback finish if Almeida can’t get Volkov out of there early.   

 Mateusz Rebecki (+120): Ludovit Klein has never been in a dogfight like the one Rebecki was just in against Chris Duncan. This will be a rare southpaw vs. southpaw matchup. Rebecki will have the power advantage on the feet. He throws nothing but bombs and commits to combinations more than Klein. Klein is more cerebral on his feet, picking perfect opportunities to engage. Rebecki can win this fight with constant pressure. Klein likes a traditionally paced kickboxing match where he can dictate range and use his wrestling, should the opponent get out of pocket. Rebecki has the power and speed to force Klein out of his comfort zone and create chaos. 

Nathaniel Wood (+125): All Nate (Nathaniel to you) does is win. He looks a little on the dweebish side, but don’t let that fool you. His speed and straight punches will fit perfectly between Jose Delgado’s wide, looping punches. Delgado has yet to be tested. What does his ground game look like? We will likely find out against Wood. The sneaky part of Wood’s game is his wrestling/grappling. He has good timing on his takedowns, using his opponents’ aggression against them. Wood can slow this fight down in the clinch and on the mat. And should it stay standing, he’s the more technical striker. But he will have to survive Delgado’s power. Wood tends to have an “Oh shit!” moment in every fight where he gets clipped on his feet and has toshoot an emergency takedown to stay alive. But stay alive, he does. 

Pick ‘Em

Nasrat Haqparast (-115) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-110) 

 Winner: Nasrat Haqparast 

Method: Decision 

Ikram Aliskerov (-245) vs. The Iron Turtle (+205)  

Winner: Ikram Aliskerov 

Method: Decision 

Ludovit Klein (-140) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+120)  

 Winner: Ludovit Klein 

Method: Decision 

Abdul Al-Selwady (-110) vs. Matheus Camilo (-110) 

 Winner: Matheus Camilo 

Method: Decision 

Valter Walker (-380) vs. Louie Sutherland (+290)  

 Winner: Valter Walker 

Method: Heel Hook Rd.1 

Nathaniel Wood (+125) vs. Jose Delgado (-145)  

 Winner: Jose Delgado 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Hamby Abdelwahab (-450) vs. Chris Barnett (+335) 

 Winner: Hamby Abdelwahab 

Method: Decision 

Azat Maksum (-415) vs. Mitch Raposo (+310) 

 Winner: Azat Maksum  

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2oke Rd.2 

Jaqueline Amorim (-450) vs. Mizuki Inoue (+335) 

 Winner: Jaqueline Amorim 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.