Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Top BONUS Offers 💸

Main Card

Justin Gaethje (+190) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-230)

Gaethje: DK: $7.3k | PAddy: DK:$8.9k

The untold story of UFC 300: 

On April 13, 2024, the spectators inside the T-Mobile Arena experienced a cataclysmic climate event. Temperatures dipped below zero for the first time in the city’s history. One spectator recalled, “It looked like Soldier Field in the middle of January in that bish!” Derrick Lewis, who was in attendance that night, stated, “My balls was frozen.” After the event, several people were transported to the local hospital and treated for symptoms of hypothermia. A brief trend swept social media, known as the Jack Nicholson Challenge, after several pictures surfaced of people frozen in their seats, resembling Jack Torrance at the end of The Shining. To free the unfortunate victims, dozens of volunteers spent several hours using blow dryers to melt the ice around them. 

The bodies hadn’t yet thawed before politicians were interrupting their fourth vacation of the year away from oceanfront properties to board luxury super yachts in the Caribbean, in which they chartered intercontinental flights aboard private jets, and immediately took to their pulpits to prophesize about the impending death and destruction of climate change. The overall sentiment that night was that nobody had ever seen anything like it. Not the record snowfall, but the final ten seconds of Max Holloway vs. Justin Gaethje, which resulted in what was dubbed “The coldest moment in UFC history.” 

Max Holloway clutching his Randy Marsh-sized huevos like Isuro “Kamikaze” Tanaka in Major League while standing over a prone Justin Gaethje. Brr! It’s eighty degrees in San Diego, CA, and I had to bundle up in fur from head to toe with little electric hand warmers just thinking about it. I can see my fookin’ breath. Justin Gaethje got laid out like an original 18^th century hand woven tapestry. 

“You mean this carpet?” 

Homie had Cheetos crumbs mashed into his fibers, and random Lego pieces scattered on top of him. At the end of the night, the cleaning crew ran a Rug Doctor over Gaethje. That moment was special because Gaethje accepted Max’s invitation; he didn’t have to. The fight was over. There was little hope for a Hail Mary puncher’s chance in those final moments. But Gaethje obliged anyway. He didn’t rob the fans of an Iconic moment.   

But don’t get it twisted like Bo Nix’s ankle—Justin Gaethje isn’t done yet. He rebounded a year later with a second dub over one of the scariest strikers in the division, Rafael Fiziev. And he all but dominated that fight with superior technical boxing. Gaethje remains the only man who can kill a living room. He’s still the man who served as the best man at his own wedding—the man with a live bear lying under his coffee table—the man whose hands guns carry for protection. He’s still Justinfookin’ Gaethje. 

Gaethje’s special move is leg kicks. He leaves your legs looking like trees struck by lightning. Leg kicks will be the key to beating Paddy Pimblett and winning the undisputed belt for the first time in Gaethje’s career. “The Highlight” has to hobble Paddy early. Paddy is an elite grappler but only a mediocre wrestler. If Gaethje can take out Paddy’s base early, he can all but ensure a stand-up bout for the duration. And a kickboxing match heavily favors Gaethje. Gaethje’s hands are gifted and I ain’ttalking about Secret Santa’s. Homie’s hands just hit different. They have to bleep out the sound of Gaethje’s hands landing. They have to make a clean radio version of his fights. Gaethje has a unique way of dipping into his punches. Yo! Hit that Freak Nasty “Da’ Dip!” When Gaethje dips, you dip, we dip. He rolls into his shots, loading up from his legs. It sounds like kids splashing in a pool when he starts throwing combinations. But none of that matters if he can’t stay on his feet. 

Don’t sleep on Paddy. He is the biggest overachiever within the promotion. Like Notorious B.I.G., people pray for Paddy’s downfall. Paddy came into this game with Gasoline Dreams and a lit match; he’s primed to blow. Through all the hate, Paddy just keeps walking on cloud nine, ten, and eleven. Yo! Hit that Katrina and the Waves “Walking on Sunshine!” Homie is living his best life and is only one takedown away from being the UFC lightweight champion.  

Paddy’s specialty is the top position. He’s like a human stain that Oxy Clean can’t even get out. He heavily soils you. Hot water, bleach, turpentine—ain’t nothing getting him off of you. Goodwill won’t even accept you as a charitable donation after fighting Paddy. Go back and watch Gaethje’s fights against Khabib and Charles Oliveira. As soon as those fights hit the mat, Gaethje was done. “But Gaethje’s background is wrestling...” But it never translated to MMA. Gaethje turns into a victim on his back. Paddy’s mount and back mount are nearly impossible to escape. I know you saw what he did to Michael Chandler, a better wrestler/grappler than Gaethje. Paddy adopted Chandler after that fight—completely son’d him. Paddy took Chandler to church like Hozier and blessed him.  

But although Paddy dominates on the mat, he averages less than one takedown per fifteen minutes. Paddy has to get Gaethje to the mat ASAP. He doesn’t want to stand and trade with Gaethje for twenty-five minutes any more than Matt Hughes wants to reenact the bridge scene in the movie Stand by Me. Paddy is a swinger, not a striker. And we ain’t talking about pineapple Hawaiian shirts and Carnival cruises. Paddy is a pick-up striker; he only strikes for fun on the weekends to stay in shape. His style is alternating lefts/rights and unmitigated aggression. Homie throws with No Reservations like Anthony Bourdain. But he lacks technical footwork, head movement, and combinations. Paddy relies on intermittent blitzes to overwhelm opponents.   

The numbers: This is a high-output affair. Gaethje averages six and a half SLPM compared to Paddy’s five. The key will be Gaethje’s sixty-eight percent takedown defense. Paddy doesn’t have a deep takedown arsenal; if Gaethje can defend one or two attempts, Paddy will relent to a kickboxing match. Paddy is the (-235) favorite, and Gaethje is the (+195) live-ass dog. I never thought I’d see Paddy as the favorite over Justin Gaethje. But here we are. And I can’t argue with it after what Paddy did to Chandler. Gaethje melts on the rare occasions that he is taken down. The play for this one is a finish—Paddy by submission, and Gaethje by TKO/KO. Paddy has only been finished once (by submission) in his twenty-six-fight career. But he is vulnerable on his feet.   

The main event losing streak remains intact even after the calendar changed. I didn’t have Manel Kape completely running over Brandon Royval on my 2025 Bingo card. It’s been a long month with that bitter taste in my mouth. The first pick of 2026 is a toss-up in my book. I don’t like Paddy’s chances on the feet, and I don’t like Gaethje’s chances on the mat. But I think Paddy might only need one takedown to finish this fight. I can’t believe I’m typing this... Paddy Pimblett via rear-naked choke, round two. Put that shit on wax.   

Props

Gaethje: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+2800) Dec (+550)  

Paddy: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+130) Dec (+550) 

Winner: Paddy Pimblett | Method: Decision

Sean O’Malley (-205) vs. Song Yadong (+170)

Danksy: DK: $8.8k | Yadong: DK: $7.4k

Quit playing and hit the Archies' “Sugar Sugar!” Ah, honey, honey. They call Sean O’Malley “Sugar,” but I call him Danksy. O’Malley came into this game as the pale Snoop Dogg of the UFC, hitting opponents with one-hitter-quitters every time he stepped into the Octagon. But lately, O’Malley hasn’t been his usual top-shelf self. He’s been on some bammer shit. “Don’t Give Me No Bammer Weed!” Hit that RBL Posse! Like the Call of Duty CEO, O’Malley ran into a concrete barrier called Merab, and he has been all stems and seeds since. I need Pineapple Express O’Malley back—the one that hit Aljo like a four-foot gravity bong in the sink and left him craving lunch meat and Cap’n Crunch to this day. Lest O’Malley gets to thinking shit is sweet like his nickname, the comeback trail won’t be easy to navigate. Song Yadong is the real-life Chong Li from Bloodsport. This will be a stand-up matchup of finesse vs. power. 

Welcome to the Sugar Factory grand reopening. Sean O’Malley is going back to his original, retro design. Danksy won’t have to worry about Yadong shooting never-ending takedowns and pushing a sprinter’s pace while running a marathon. He can get back to utilizing his Dance Dance Revolution footwork—that Switchback footwork that makes him look like he’s levitating while boxing circles, trapezoids, and rhombuses around opponents. O’Malley has to beat Yadong with angles. He can catch Yadong walking right into Sugar’s diabetic right hand the same way Sugar did Aljo. Lateral movement will win this fight for O’Malley. All “Sugars” in combat sports have two things in common: Hand speed and evasive footwork. When The Sugar Show is at his best, he possesses both attributes. Stay on the outside and use range; those are the keys for O’Malley.  

Song Yadong, AKA Li Jingliang, if the gargoyle curse was lifted, has more power than the divided citizens of America. He has more power than the energy companies in Texas. Homie’s hands are rated E for everybody. You know one thing for certain when Yadong fights: He’s coming to “Bring the Pain” like Method Man. Yadong lives in a House of Pain like Whitey Ford. You can call him Major Payne. And he’s about to be a major pain in O’Malley’s ass. Wait, what!? No Diddy. Yadong has a fetish for kicking ass. He goes to anonymous meetings every Tuesday night. 

“Hello. I'm Song Yadong, and I have a problem...”  

“Hey, buddy! What did you just say about my dong!?” 

Yadong’s style is fighting fire with napalm. The answer to all life's questions is “more power.” Yadong is a minimalist striker. All he needs in this life of sin is a left hook and an overhand right. Every so often, he’ll get the fancy to throw a rear-hand uppercut. But for the most part, Yadong is all straight lines and basic combinations. But there’s nothing basic about his power. O’Malley’s one-punch power comes from timing and slick footwork; Yadong’s one-punch power comes from sitting down on every punch. The key for Yadong against O’Malley will be pressure and setting traps along the cage. Yadong has to be careful to cut the cage off and not get caught following O’Malley around the Octagon. If he follows O’Malley, he will get lured into a counter right hand that can end his night. He has to cut off O’Malley and corral him into his powerful hooks. 

The numbers: This is another high-output Fantasy matchup. O’Malley averages nearly six and a half SLPM compared to Yadong’s over four and a half. Yadong will have to take more risks to make up for the gap. O’Malley is the (-210) favorite, and Yadong is the (+175) live-ass dog. Yadong has gone 6-2 since 2021. The two losses were against Cory Sandhagen and the new Champ, Petr Yan. The question is, where is O’Malley’s head after losing two fights in a row? That will fook with a fighter mentally. Yadong has to pressure him early and put some doubt in O’Malley’s head. The play for this one is a decision. These guys are technically sound with physical attributes that counteract each other. I don’t feel great about this one, but give me Danksy. Sean O’Malley via decision. On wax.   

Props

O’Malley: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+2200) Dec (+110) 

Yadong: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+2200) Dec (+300)

Winner: Sean O’Malley | Method: Decision

Derrick Lewis (+260) vs. Waldo Acosta (-325)

Lewis: DK: $7k | Acosta: DK:$9.2k

He’s got K-Os. In different area codes, area codes. Now you thought he was just 713 and 218? Derrick Lewis is worldwide, trick. Act like y’all don’t know. He’s the abominable K-O man. Globe trot, international KO man. Neighborhood KO man. 314 (St. Louis), 801 (Salt Lake City), 702 (Las Vegas), 512 (Austin), 713 (Houston), 602 (Phoenix), 518 (Albany), and 615 (Nashville). You already know what time it is; hit that Kanye “Power!” No man should have all that power. Not even foreign lobbieshave more power than The Black Beast. Homie has so much power you would swear he was a Rothchild. Lewis has forgotten about more KOs than most fighters have KOs in their entire careers. Occasionally, someone Lewis KO’d years ago shows up on his doorstep trying to strike up a relationship and make up for lost time. Lewis has illegitimate KOs sprinkled all over the map. If you lined up from head to toe all the people Derrick Lewis has KO’d over the years, they would stretch around the entire globe. He laid out more people than Marshall Applewhite. Who? Duck Duck Go that shit. D. Lewis will lay u out like a shrink's couch. 

That’s a long introduction for a man who doesn’t need one. If you don’t know who Derrick Lewis is, welcome to the world of MMA. The WKO is always delighted to welcome new fans of the sport. Derrick Lewis might be the least technical fighter in MMA who achieved the most success. He doesn’t really have striking skills; he has striking power. His gas tank is a Madden two. By the second round, Lewis will have his hands on his knees like he just beat out a Beer League infield single. But he’ll still crack your ass; you’ll be a shooting star arcing high in the rafters across the arena: The More You Know. Lewis fights in spurts. Not only because he has a weedwhacker’s gas tank, but because his balls overheat like old-school car radiators. Nuclear meltdown is imminent after the halfway point of the first round. You’ll see smoke leaking from his fight shorts like his balls are hotboxing them. When he retires, it will take thirty years to decommission Derrick Lewis’s balls.   

But unmitigated power will meet supreme technique when Lewis steps into the Octagon against the WKO 2025 MVP Waldo Acosta. I just decided on the spot. Acosta fought five times in ‘25, going 4-1 with his loan loss coming to Sergei Pavlovich. Acosta stepped in on short notice multiple times and even packed up Ante Delija in a pine box after sustaining a Three Stooges eye poke. Where’s Waldo? That’s a question you never have to ask. You know where to find him. If you’re looking for Waldo, he’ll be in the Octagon with his right hand cocked, sitting on a drop now. Because Waldo Acosta is a fighter.  

But he used to be a relief pitcher within the Cincinnati Reds organization. My Anaheim Angels could use this guy in the bullpen. Imagine charging the mound against this guy. You think Robin Ventura got his ass cracked? Wait until you get a load of this guy. No Diddy. Why is that a saying? Anywho, Acosta would have more KO’s than saves if he were in the MLB. Acosta throws hands like he throws four and two seam fastballs. He might have the fastest hands in the heavyweight division. Waldo has speed like the Padres’ Mason Miller and control like the legend Greg Maddox. And his right hand will bless you like Popes. Until recently, I was sleeping on Acosta. When I woke up, it looked like Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner outside. Acosta’s special move is his jab. He might be the best jabber in the UFC. My main critique of Acosta is that sometimes he jabs too much and doesn’t let his right hand go enough. And I’m a guy who thinks you can never jab too much.   

If this fight goes the distance, Acosta will be the winner. His output dwarfs Lewis’s, like little people. Acosta averages five and a half SLpM compared to Lewis’s two and a half. Lewis has to knock out Acosta, who has never been finished in eighteen career fights. Acosta is the (-330) favorite, and Lewis is the (+265) live-ass dog. Live-ass? Lewis is one of the few fighters whom I drop an automatic Hamilton on whenever he is a dog. Not even a black hole is too deep a hole for Lewis’s right hand to dig him out of. But he will be at a severe technical disadvantage. He has to make this ugly and pick his spots carefully. The play for Lewis is a TKO/KO. And the play for Acosta is a decision. Give me Waldo Acosta via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Lewis: TKO/KO (+380) Sub (+3500) Dec (+1200)

Acosta: TKO/KO (-115) Sub (+1800) Dec (+250)

Winner: Waldo Acosta | Method: Decision

Arnold Allen (+215) vs. Jean Silva (-265)

Allen: DK: $6.8k | Silva: DK: $9.4k

Yo! DJ, hit that Eminem “Lose Yourself!” Jean Silva: Snap back to reality. Oh, there goes gravity! Jean Silva came crashing back down to earth like the Challenger after a war with Diego Lopes. Silva authored his own demise in that fight. He inspired Lopes to throw the finishing spinning back elbow by throwing it himself multiple times. Imitation is the highest form of flattery. Silva was blushing after eating that elbow. But in defeat, Silva legitimized himself. His heart was on display like the Bodies Exhibit. In the first round, Silva took a Raja Jackson beating. It looked like Silva didn’t realize they were fighting for real on some kayfabe type-ish. But he came back like Meek Mill at a Diddy party and had Lopes on the ropes in the second round before over pursuing and running into a back elbow. 

But Silva remains a fight genius. A member of the Fighting Nerds, he still stays geeking like Pennsylvania Ave. Stays geeking like bathroom stalls at Studio 54. You can call him Freeway Silva. You push keys; he pushes grand pianos. Silva is a fight Edison, inventing new ways to kick ass every time he steps into the cage. Add Fight Nostradamus to his list of monikers. His special ability is predicting the future and what you’re going to throw next. Then he counters accordingly. Silva tends to start slowly and build towards an ass-kicking crescendo. Homie doesn’t want to knock you out in the first round. You wouldn’t go to a three-star Michelin restaurant and swallow your food whole, would you? No, you want to savor every fookin’ bite. That’s Jean Silva’s mentality.   

“Hey!” Arnold Allen, AKA Arnold Almighty, is back. Allen was riding in the back seat with the cruise control set, thinking that shit was autopilot, until he ran into Max Holloway. Then he lost control like the Call of Duty CEO, losing a second straight fight to Movsar Evloev. Like T-Pain fell in love with an exotic dancer (stripper if you want to be a Richard about it), Arnold Allen fell in love with striking. He came into the game as a dominant wrestler/grappler. Now his wrestling is just somebody that he used to know. Against Jean Silva, Allen has to knock the dust off his ASIC Matflex kicks, strap on a leotard (not a derogatory term), and put Silva on his back like a Koala Kare station in a mall bathroom.  

But Allen will likely opt to stand and bang. That’s okay because he has sneaky good striking. Go back and watch the fifth round against Holloway. Allen was coming on strong. His secret weapon is a sneaky left high kick. You’ll fook around and catch a middle-of-the-winter pale ankle sock tan line upside your head. But his best weapon is his left hand. When he throws it, it looks like Allen is throwing a javelin. It looks like he’s hunting caribou. The exit wound looks like you were hit with a .30-06, even if you have superhuman bone density that can withstand it. Overall, Allen looks socially awkward on his feet, but somehow, chicks seem to dig it. They think it’s mysterious. Allen will have to make up for a discrepancy in output against Silva. Allen averages just under three and a half SLpM compared to Silva’s nearly five. He can compensate with well-timed level changes and top control.  

Silva will be the (-275) favorite, and Arnold will be the (+225) live dog. Arnold can win this if wrestling remains in the game plan. Silva rocks a seventy-eight percent takedown defense, but Lopes exposed holes in his grappling; he wrote The Blueprint like Jay-Z. A straight kickboxing match favors Silva’s creativity and superior prowess. The play for this one is a decision. Silva is the better finisher, but Arnold has never been finished in twenty-three career scraps. Silva was finished for the first time against Lopes. If Arnold stays committed to wrestling, he would be the pick. But he’s too quick to bail on it. Jean Silva via decision. On wax.  

Props

Silva: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+1200) Dec (+185)  

Allen: TKO/KO (800) Sub (+2000) Dec (+400)

Winner: Jean Silva | Method: Decision

Umar Nurmagomedov (-1450) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+850)

Umar: DK: $9.9k | Figgy: DK: $6.3k

Hit that Post Malone “Congratulations!” Congratulations are in order for Umar Nurmagomedov, commemorating the one-year anniversary of his “Won Two Rounds Against Merab” banner that hangs in the rafters next to Chick Hick’s Piston Cup Championship banner. I’m not hating, though. If I won two rounds against Merab, I’d make WWE entrances complete with pyrotechnics everywhere I went: Walking into Trader Joe's, attending my kid’s Three Little Bears Operetta, and hitting up the local Applebee's Happy Hour. I’d look like a grieving widow all over town if I took two rounds from Merab. Of course, Umar went on to lose that fight. But he rebounded with a dub over the sleeper “Super” Mario Bautista. Barring an immediate title rematch for Merab, Umar is one dub away from a title shot and a dream matchup against Petr Yan. 

Umar is the best pure wrestler in the lower weight classes. He’s a never-ending conga line of takedowns. There’s something satisfying about watching Umar shoot repeated takedowns. It’s like watching pottery wheel videos on YouTube. Umar’s trademark setup makes his takedowns nearly impossible to defend. He’s the only fighter in the game who shoots off his lead hand. Umar throws a jab, then level changes, getting lower than Lil Jon and the Ying Yang Twins. Yo, DJ! Hit that “Get Low!” And once Umar gets hold of you, he rolls on the mat like clothes in the dryer. He’ll put your ass on permanent press real quick.   

But there are holes in Umar’s striking. In recent fights, Umar has gotten away from his trademark weapon on his feet: The Question Mark Kick. The only stupid Question Mark Kick is the one you don’t throw. I’m old enough to remember when Umar threw more Question Mark Kicks than hands. A traditional Question Mark Kick is usually thrown with the rear power leg. Umar throws it with his lead leg like a jab. You have no idea if Umar is attacking high or low. The next thing you know, you’requestioning everything like Neo in the Matrix. But against Deiveson Figueiredo, Umar won’t have to rely on his striking. Figgy defends takedowns at a fifty-seven percent success rate. That’s a bad look going into a fight against a man who averages nearly four and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. 

I’ve been saying it for Figgy’s most recent fights: He has to get back to his aggressive striking. Figgy used to be a scary striker. But in recent years, Figgy abandoned the CK1 cologne, frosted tips, and Hurley collar shirt that got him to the dance. Figgy had a brief affair with wrestling, and his striking walked out on him. And now he only sees his clinch game every other weekend. While Figgy can be formidable from the top position, he’s a prude who won’t even fake it from his back. He just lies there looking at the alarm clock on the nightstand, waiting for the round to end.   

Wrestling won’t be an option against Umar. Homie needs to go full Johnny Storm and self-immolate. Who set the Octagon on fire? Figgy set the Octagon on fire. Someone has to rub two sticks together and light a fire under Figgy’s ass. He has tofall asleep with a cig in his mouth, not clean the lint trap for a year, or leave a lithium battery plugged in too long—something. Anything to make this a firefight. His only chance to win this fight is to out-strike Umar. 

But the odds suggest that isn't likely to happen. Umar is the (-1800) favorite, and Figgy is the (+850) mangy ass, flea-ridden dog, begging with moon eyes to be put down. There is no planet in any galaxy within the solar system in which Figgy can beat Umar. I hate writing fighters off in elegant, flowing medieval script (no, I don’t), but here we are. Every time I do it, the fighter I wrote off wins nearly one hundred percent of the time. This one is an exception, though. The only question is, will Umar validate his high Fantasy salary cap hit? Against Bautista (a much better wrestler than Figgy), Umar only landed thirty-two significant strikes. But he also landed eleven takedowns and racked up over ten minutes of control time on his way to scoring one hundred twenty-seven Fantasy points. And that was without a finish. Umar Nurmagomedov via rear-naked choke, round three. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Umar: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+175) Dec (-135)  

Figgy: TKO/KO (+3000) Sub (+3000) Dec (+1400)

Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Alex Perez ($7.5k): Not even Josh Allen chokes more than Alex Perez. Alex Perez wakes up, yawns, then falls into a guillotine choke, getting out of bed every morning. So why the fook is he on the Value Menu? Because he’s fighting Charles Johnson, a man with zero UFC submissions. Alexandre Pantoja, Muhammad Mokaev, Tatsuro Taira, and Asu Almabayev: those are Perez’s last four losses. That’s a Murderers Row that puts Babe Ruth and them to shame. When Alex dictates where the fight takes place, he is a tough out. Not only is Perez a strong wrestler, but he is also an underrated boxer. He gave Tatsuro Taira major problems on their feet. The biggest hole in Charles Johnson’s game is his takedown defense (sixty-six percent) and ground game. Alex has the striking ability not be desperate for takedowns. And that will make it easier to land takedowns. Fantasy-wise, Alex averages over four SLpM and over two takedowns per fifteen minutes: not too shabby.   

Justin Gaethje ($7.3k): This one is a no-brainer. Gaethje’s upside is impossible to pass up. He is a far better striker than Paddy. Paddy is far from an Islam Makhachev when it comes to takedowns. If Gaethje can keep the fight standing, he will pick Paddy apart with a good chance of scoring a finish. But Gaethje is a huge gamble. The few times we have seen him on his back, he looked completely lost. He melted against Khabib and Charles as soon as the fight hit the mat. Gaethje is one takedown away from being choked out by Paddy. Paddy’s back mount and full mount are like Alcatraz, inescapable. But Paddy often looks amateurish on his feet, especially defensively.  

Derrick Lewis ($7k): The Black Beast is an automatic go against another striker. This guy performs euthanasia with his fists. Nobody, and I mean No-bo-dy, in the UFC has more TKO/KOs than Derrick Lewis. He could be down to the last freckle on his ass that remains un-kicked, and he can still pull off the dub with one punch. Even when he’s huffing and puffing like Paddy and Selma walking up a flight of stairs, he still can knock out anybody with one punch. Derrick Lewis is an automatic, first ballot, Twenty Twen-Twen Sleeper Hall of Famer. Yeah, I picked Waldo Acosta to win this fight with superior technical boxing, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be sweating until the final bell. Lewis can flip the whole Fantasy board like a poor sport with one punch.  

 $6k Clearance Rack  

Rose Namajunas ($6.8k): The Clearance Rack holds four fighters this week. And it’s a Motley Crue. If you find yourself searching through the moldy options on the Clearance Rack this week, you need to rethink your life decisions. Rose is the only fighter who I can see scoring any kind of Fantasy points. She will be in a striker vs. striker matchup against a high-output fighter in Natalia Silva. Rose will have to commit to a higher output, or she will risk falling behind on the judges’ cards. The other three options on the Clearance Rack could all be finished inside of a round. Rose will at least give you fifteen minutes and moderate strikes landed. And some points are always better than zero points.  

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Alex Perez (+175): Another year of dog chasing, homies. I know, I know you ain’t my homie, buddy! Alex can strike with Charles Johnson, and he has the wrestling to put Charles on his back and steal close rounds. Even in recent losses, Perez has had some good moments. He looked on top of his game early against Tatsuro Taira. Perez’s major weakness is guillotine chokes. He has been finished by submission six times in his career, and four were by guillotine. Johnson hasn’t scored a submission in the UFC and has never won by guillotine in his career. Hopefully Charles hasn’t been training guilotines for the last couple of months... Anywho, I like Perez’s chances of making this an MMA fight and stealing close rounds on the mat with control time.  

Justin Gaethje (+195): Gaethje is coming into this scrap after a second dub against the scariest striker in the division, Rafael Fiziev. The first meeting was closed, but Gaethje all but dominated the second fight with superior technique. Gaethje can box a geometry class worth of shapes around Paddy. I’m talking about rhombuses, trapezoids, and quatrefoils. For as long as the fight stays standing, Paddy will be in trouble. But Gaethje is a dog because of the hole in his ground game. He’s one takedown away from being submitted or pounded out like Michael Chandler.   

Michael Johnson (+125): Michael Johnson has been doing it and doing it and doing it well for over fifteen years in the UFC. And he’s still winning fights. Homie is riding a three-fight dub streak and four of his last five. This guy has fought every legend, past and present, within the lightweight division. MJ still has his trademark hand speed and possibly the fastest hands in the division, fifteen years running. If he can avoid Alexander Hernandez’s right hand, MJ can steal this fight from the outside with crispy combinations. The red flag for MJ is his chin. He has that “you break it, you buy it” porcelain chin. A slight adjustment of the arena’s thermostat can create a draft strong enough to put him to sleep. Other than length, speed is the toughest attribute to overcome.

Derrick Lewis (+260): Because why Not?

Pick ‘Em

Rose Namajunas (+320) vs. Natalia Silva (-430) 

 Winner: Natalia Silva 

Method: Decision 

Ateba Gautier (-900) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+575)  

 Winner: Ateba Gautier 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Nikita Krylov (+115) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (-135)  

 Winner: Modestas Bukauskas 

Method: Decision 

Alex Perez (+175) vs. Charles Johnson (-205)  

 Winner: Alex Perez 

Method: Decision 

Michael Johnson (+120) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-140)   

 Winner: Alexander Hernandez 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Josh Hokit (-235) vs. Denzel Freeman (+195)   

Winner: Josh Hokit 

Method: Decision 

Ricky Turcios (+165) vs. Cameron Smotherman (-195)   

 Winner: Cameron Smotherman 

Method: Decision 

Adam Fugitt (+355) vs. Ty Miller (-490)   

 Winner: Ty Miller 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.