Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Khamzat Chimaev (-575) vs. Sean Strickland (+425)

Chimaev: DK: $9.5k | Strickland: DK:$6.7k

At six a.m., the Nickelodeon alarm clock goes off, “How come you’re always such a fussy young man? Don’t want no Cap’n Crunch, don’t want no Raisin Bran...” Weird Al’s perpetually sarcastic voice fills the room. Tossing the Rugrats blanket aside, Sean Strickland groans and rolls out of his Corvette race car bed. He steps into a pair of Ultimate Warrior slippers and stretches.   

"Don’t forget to brush your teeth!” Mom’s voice can be heard from the kitchen downstairs. Knowing she’ll do the breath test, Strickland squeezes the Aqua Fresh tube directly into his mouth. Once it sufficiently coats his mouth, he swallows. Rifling through his drawers, Strickland finds his favorite No Fear shirt and a pair of corduroy pants. After dressing, he opens the window and is met with a rush of cold air. Accordingly, he shrugs into his purple and teal Charlotte Hornets Apex jacket. The colors of his outfit clash perfectly as he eyes himself in the mirror. 

Before he can spike his hair with L.A. Looks Extreme Hold hair gel, the smell of Toaster Strudels coaxes him downstairs.  

“Don’t slide down the—” Too late; he slides down the banister and hits a perfect dismount. Through the front window, he sees the bus pull up. A moment later, the line of kids starts shuffling aboard.  

“Mom! The bus is here!” She comes running around the corner with his Power Rangers backpack. In one hand, she shoves his Duck Tales lunch box, and in the other, a gooey Toaster Strudel.  

“Hurry before you miss it and have to walk!” With a kiss on the forehead, she nudges him out the door. Strickland waves over his shoulder as his brand-new pair of Reebok Pumps slaps over the pavement. In a plume of exhaust, the bus disappears down the street. 

Sean Strickland is going back to school. Or at least he should be. He should be going full 21 Jump Street before what could be his final title shot. Or maybe he should go to the Police Academy and become a Kindergarten Cop on some Mr. Campbell type-shit: “Who is your daddy, and what does he do?” Whatever he does, Strickland’s training should consist of spending time in a preschool classroom, putting blocks in his mouth, wiping his snotty nose on his forearm, and sharing water bottles filled with backwash with every kid in class. Strickland’s best chance of beating the terrifying enigma that is Khamzat Chimaev is contracting a cold.  

Chimaev is 15-0 against humans. But viruses have had much success against him in the past. The flu is Chimaev’s kryptonite. He lost nearly two years of his career due to illness early in his UFC tenure. Homie was on his deathbed, coughing blood like Doc Holiday with TB. If Strickland steps into the Octagon carrying the shit that my first grader brought home two weeks ago that had your boy doing the Maycee Barber challenge in bed for a few days, Chimaev’s immune system won’t stand a chance. He’ll be on a ventilator before the championship rounds. A fookin’ computer virus could stop Chimaev dead in his tracks. The best way for Strickland to defend a takedown is to cough on Chimaev. Because if Strickland can stay upright for extended periods, he will out-strike his former training partner.   

Strickland is the guy who ended Israel Adesanya’s reign right after Adesanya knocked out Alex Fookin’ Pereira. If he can find a way to beat Chimaev, Strickland will stamp his Hall of Fame bid. I can’t think of two bigger career wins than beating those two guys. After losing to DDP twice, I thought Strickland was done. I picked Fluffy Hernandez to beat him. Then Strickland went out and sent Fluffy back to the swing shift at Peet’s Coffee. He beat Fluffy like Fluffy spelled Strickland’s name wrong on his venti double frap expresso with almond milk, one pump of mocha, caramel drizzle—shaken, not stirred. Strickland remains one of the best pure boxers in the game. It’s crazy that his name is never mentioned. He’s the best defensive striker in MMA history. His Philly Shell could survive a trip through the Van Allen Belt. Not even Diddy could penetrate Strickland’s Philly Shell. Call it the Diddy Shell. Strickland’s Philly Shell is more Philly than Rocky and cheese steaks. His Philly Shell could stop a .30-06 round like Charlie’s spine. But Philly Shells can’t defend against takedowns. Strickland’s career takedown defense percentage is—IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT HIS TAKEDOWN DEFENSE PERCENTAGE IS! 

Because Khamzat Chimaev’s takedowns aren’t your average takedowns. They show your portrait at the Oscars during the “Those We Lost” segment after this guy gets hold of you. You look like laundry in the washer when Chimaev gets hold of you. It’s like going over Niagara Falls in a barrel when Chimaev locks his hands behind you. This guy picks you up and carries you around the cage like you’re a damsel in distress. He’ll carry you around the arena. He’ll never put you down like a heavy burden. He’ll fireman carry you through the Taco Bell drive-thru. He’ll still be carrying you later when he takes a shit, “Hey, buddy. Can I get a courtesy flush?” And there ain’t shit you can do about it. 

Because Chimaev is at the top of the food chain. He has no natural predators. To this guy, everyone is a gazelle or poor bass turd washing his chonies down at the watering hole. And once you’re on the mat, fuggettaboutit. He buries your ass in the mat. He’ll turn you into fossil fuels. Not even Daniel Day-Lewis will be able to dig your ass out. Nobody is unbeatable except Chimaev in the first round. The first round against Chimaev is like surfing a tsunami – paragliding in a hurricane. It’s like falling into the tiger exhibit at the zoo and surviving until the workers in little safari shorts tranquilize the MF. The key to beating Chimaev is getting out of the first round. 

Don’t fall for the mainstream media's false narrative that Chimaev proved he can fight for five rounds. He did no such thing. He proved he could wrestle for twenty-five minutes. And we already knew he could do that. DDP offered zero resistance and was taken down in the opening seconds of each round. You have to make Chimaev work. You have to defend and make him re-enter. You have to force scrambles. And most importantly, you have to cause damage on the feet while you can. Which is exactly what Gilbert Burns did against Chimaev when Burns nearly pulled off the upset. If Strickland can do those things, he will have a chance.   

Chimaev is the (-575) favorite, and Strickland is the (+400) live-ish dog. I’ll go out on a limb and say these odds are a little wild. This fight will be closer than the odds suggest. If Strickland can create opportunities to chip away between being taken down, he will have a chance late. But he will have to stop Chimaev. The only play for Strickland is a TKO/KO. Strickland has never been submitted. If Chimaev can’t submit Strickland in the opening minutes, the fight will go the distance.  

Oh, we’re all the way streaking meow, homies. The main event dub streak is now at four after Carlos Prates stole Jack Della Soul’s soul last week. This week, I think Strickland is being slept on a little. But staying on his feet long enough to create enough damage to slow down Chimaev will be a tall task. I’ll definitely sprinkle a little something something on a Strickland TKO/KO. But give me Khamzat Chimaev via decision. And put it on wax.   

Props

Chimaev: TKO/KO (+380) Sub (-105) Dec (+300)  

Strickland: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+4500) Dec (+850) 

Winner: Khamzat Chimaev | Method: Decision

Tatsuro Taira (-160) vs. Joshua Van (+135)

Taira: DK: $8.7k | Van: DK: $7.5k

This is the definition of a grappler-versus-striker matchup. It doesn't get any more black-and-white than this. I’m not surprised Joshua Van is the champion; I picked him to beat Toja Cat. I didn’t think it would go down the way it did, but a dub is a dub. I was hoping a rematch would be Van’s first title defense. Toja is a much better matchup for him than Taira is. At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, Taira might go down as the best grappler in UFC history. Yeah, I’m high right now; I confess. But I stand on that like area rugs. Van will be facing his kryptonite in his first title defense. If Van can get by Taira, he’ll have the belt for a long time. 

Joshua Van is the best boxer in the flyweight division. His hands are heavier than depression. He’ll knock your ass into the Great Depression. You'll wake up in a fookin’ Steinbeck novel. Van has those There Will Be Blood hands. They use his hands to drill for oil. They need dollies for his hands when he walks to the cage. MF has to have a spotter when he reaches for that bottle of Jergens, if ya know what I mean. His hands are so heavy that they have to bleep out the sound of them landing. They have to make clean versions of his fights. His fights get slapped with the Parental Advisory sticker.   

Van is at his best when attacking the body is his priority. Life is a Hershey Highway, and you’re going to ride it all night long like you’re in the HOV lane during rush hour. When your hands come down to defend, he tees off like Top Golf. Van’s power is unrivaled in the division. But his power isn’t his best attribute. Van’s chin is his best attribute. His chin is made from the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs. He has that Jay Leno chin. His chin is made of hemp; it’s indestructible. This MF eats punches like Joey Chestnut eats Franks (wieners if you want to be a Richard about it).   

But none of that matters if Van can’t stay on his feet. Van rocks an 81% takedown defense. You already know; he has takedown defense like my neighbor’s Christmas lights. It’s May, and they’re still up. Don’t believe me? Drop the receipts! 

Yo, DJ! Hit that Ice Cube “You Ain’t Gotta Lie (Ta Kick It)!” But Van has never faced a takedown Bansky like Tatsuro Taira. Taira averages over three takedowns per fifteen minutes and one and a half submission attempts per fifteen minutes. That’sthe most sub attempts that I’ve seen. Taira is The Greatest Show on Canvas. He’s the Max Holloway of grappling. He throws volume submissions. When this guy gets hold of you, he invades you like a parasite. You gotta do a colon cleanse to get this guy off you. When Taira gets you down, you have to burn him off you like a fookin’ tick. He’s a human leech, draining your blood from the top position.   

What makes Taira special on the mat is that he’s always two steps ahead. He’ll let you think you’re escaping a submission while he’s actually setting up another. You’re like the guy who escaped Jeffrey Dahmer’s house, running ass-naked down the street, only to be brought back to Dahmer’s house by the cops. Taira can submit you with any part of your body; he’ll tap you with a fookin’ earbar.   

But what about Taira’s striking? He’s a sniper from range but a patsy inside the pocket. He gets Jack Ruby’d when he extends combinations. Inside the pocket, Taira is like Bill Clinton; he doesn’t inhale the smoke. Overall, Taira is mid on his feet. But his striking isn’t a liability. He can strike for extended periods without having to spam or telegraph takedowns. However, he doesn’t want to stand with Van longer than necessary. 

Taira will be the (-170) favorite, and Van will be the (+150) live-ass dog. Eventually, all grapplers fade, and their takedowns become less effective. Especially if you can defend some and scramble to your feet. As with Sean Strickland, it all comes down to how much time Van can buy on his feet. I think Van will have to make up for lost time with a late finish. Taira’s value is a submission, but a decision has some value too. Van has only been submitted once early in his career by a rear-naked choke. Damn, this is a tough one. I think this is a tougher matchup for Van than Pantoja. Tatsuro Taira via rear-naked choke, round three. On wax.   

Props

Van: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+2000) Dec (+400) 

Taira: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+200) Dec (+300)

Winner: Tatsuro Taira | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Alexander Volkov (-140) vs. Waldo Acosta (+120)

Volkov: DK: $8.6k | Acosta: DK:$7.6k

This is a rare heavyweight striker’s delight. The Angels have a better chance of not blowing a 9th inning lead than this fight has of going to the mat. Of course, the real star of the show is Alexander Volkov’s back tat. I’ve been calling for a back tat BMF title fight between Alexander Volkov’s and Sean Brady’s back tats. Volkov's back tat would be a (+350) live-ass dog and would be featured as a WKO Twenty Twen-Twen Sleeper. Meek Mill needs Volkov’s ink work to scare off Diddy like a scarecrow protecting crops. Volkov has fifty career fights, but it wasn’t until he got his backpiece that he became a real contender. Check it: In a UFC career spanning a decade, Volkov has only lost five fights. And two of his last three losses came against Ciryl Gane. This guy is an underrated fighter who only loses to elite competition. Is Waldo Acosta elite competition? If he beats Volkov, he will be.   

It’s easy to overlook Volkov because he’s built like “Tiny” from House of 1000 Corpses. Volkov looks like the kid who had to play goalie in every sport. I’m talking, soccer, hockey, water polo, lacrosse... foosball. But he has been one of the best strikers in the division for a decade. I’ve always thought of Volkov as a better Stefan Struve. Volkov’s best weapon is his teeps. Yo! Hit that Outkast ft. Raekwon the Chef “Skew It on the Bar-B!” This guy is the only big man who uses teeps effectively to maintain range, interrupt opponents’ attacks, and knock MF’ers out. I call it the Five-Toe Death Kick. Volkov will serve your intestines on little pointy sticks. He has multiple TKOs via internal bleeding. Volk will leave you with bloody stools, and I ain’ttalking about bar fights. Homie will give you a bunion enema.  

Yo, DJ! Hit that Alonzo from Training Day, “King Kong ain’t got shit on me!” Volkov is one of the few fighters to beat MMA’s King Kong, Sergei Pavlovich. And that fight wasn’t very close. Volkov dominated at range and walked out that bishwithout a scratch on him. He also arguably beat Ciryl Gane in the rematch. He was one bad judge's decision away from possibly fighting The Fist Gawd, Alex Pereira, at the White House. Against Waldo Acosta, Volkov just has to control range, using his teeps and jab. This is Volkov’s fight to lose.  

Where’s Waldo? If you’re looking for Waldo, he’ll be on the block with his right hand cocked, possibly sitting on a drop now. Waldo was the WKO 2025 Fighter of the Year. He went 4-1 with his only loss coming against Pavlovich. Waldo stepped in on short notice multiple times; he’s the Cowboy Cerrone of the heavyweight division, fighting on nearly every card. This guy never stops fighting. He sleeps under the Octagon like Jon Jones when USADA shows up. If he stops fighting, he’ll explode like the bus in Speed when it goes below 55 mph. Waldo will be featured on the series finale of Intervention because of his fight addiction.   

“Cuz somewhere deep down in my heart, I still love you!” 

“Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!”  

Waldo will be 75, working as an Octagon greeter. Acosta’s path to the Octagon began in the bullpen for the Cincinnati Reds. My Angels could use Acosta ASAP; they have the worst bullpen the world has ever seen. Sell the team, Arte Moreno! Waldo is built like a closer who throws nothing but Mason Miller 104 mph heaters. Fook it! Hit that Korn “Blind!” I bet Jorge Soler wouldn’t charge the mound against this guy. Waldo would lead the league in saves and KOs. Until I saw Josh Hokit fight Curtis Blaydes, I thought Waldo had the fastest hands in the division. Waldo wins fights with speed. He is a rare one-punch, high-output-volume striker. He won’t throw many combinations, but he still averages 5.5 SLpM compared to Volkov’s 4.7. Fantasy-wise, this will be a good fight to target. Even without a finish, these guys can post solid striking stats.   

Volkov is the (-180) favorite, and Waldo is the (+155) live dog. Waldo has the hand speed to cause Volkov problems, but his kryptonite is bigger, longer strikers. And that’s Volkov. Much like JDM had a difficult time closing the distance against Prates last week, Acosta will have similar problems doing so against Volkov. He needs lateral footwork to avoid Volkov’s up-the-middle, long-range strikes. And Acosta lacks lateral footwork. He wants to march you down and throw bombs. I’m not sure that will work this time. The play for this one is a decision. Acosta has never been finished, and Volkov has only been finished once (by submission) since 2018. I love me some Waldo Acosta, but you pick to win the fight. Alexander Volkov via decision. Put it on wax. 

Props

Volkov: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2200) Dec (+130)

Acosta: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+2500) Dec (+275)

Winner: Alexander Volkov | Method: Decision

Sean Brady (-175) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+145)

Brady: DK: $8.4k | Buckley: DK: $7.8k

With a win, I expect Sean Brady’s back tat to take the mic from Joe Rogan and call out Alexander Volkov’s back tat. This guy has ink running through his veins like Venom. But that Baal tat didn’t scare Michael Morales. Sean Brady looked like he saw a ghost when he stepped inside the cage with Michael Morales. He looked like Johnny Ringo when Doc Holiday showed up at the creek bed in Wyatt Earp’s stead.  

“Why, Sean Brady, you look like somebody just walked over your grave.” 

As soon as Morales started throwing bombs, Brady looked like a Dwayne Haskins in the headlights. The moment I saw Brady come out rocking the Brett Favre Coppertone knee sleeves, I threw my Brady ticket in the trash. I could smell the Bengay—whoa, buddy! We don’t tolerate that kind of rhetoric around here. My bad. I could smell the Icy Hot before he took off his warm-ups. I don’t know what happened to Brady, but he was moving in slow-motion. Homie was moving like a curler walking on ice. All he was missing was a little broom. His hand speed looked like when you get into a fight in a dream. Like I used to believe in Santa, I used to believe in Brady’s striking. But after the Morales fight, I’m convinced his striking was just an elaborate psy-op. It looked like Brady's hands still had the e-brake on. 

Subsequently, Brady got beaten so soundly that I had to take a second look at his record. His dubs have aged like Mickey Rourke. His best dub was against a washed Leon Edwards. He also had his way with the town floozy, Gilbert Boo-urns. That’s it. His two UFC losses came against the only two elite fighters he has faced. Luckily for Brady, Joaquin Buckley isn’t elite. But Brady will have a narrow path to victory, like walking a tightrope for fifteen minutes. He has to wrestle from bell to bell. Brady averages 3.5 takedowns per fifteen minutes, while Buckley defends at 72%. But Buckley gave up four takedowns and thirteen minutes of control time against Kamaru Usman. What goes down, doesn’t come up.   

But best believe, if Brady can’t get Buckley to the mat at the beginning of each round, Buckley will put Brady in a box like the Brady Bunch. Yo, DJ! Hit Buckley’s theme Song “Hate Me Now” By Nas! Joaquin’s daddy was an Uzi; he’s a son of a gun. For real, though, Buckley should walk out to Hate Me Now. Or 50 Cent and The Game “Hate It or Love It.” Hate it or love it, Buckley’s on top. Something about Buckley just rubs people the wrong way, like the first time your parents left you home alone. And as surely as you forgot to rewind the tape after, Buckley will piss off Sean Brady. And Brady will fight out of pocket, and Buckley will take advantage. That’s Buckley’s special power; he pisses you off and gets you to fight his fight. And his fight is throwing fists in the center of the cage. Because power-for-power, not many can stand with him in the division. Morales, Prates, and Buckley; the top three, dead or alive.  

But the only thing that matters is Buckley’s takedown defense. Against Usman, Buckley had those ED get-ups. I’m talking whiskey shots and dates that look like Li Jingliang type of get-ups. The game plan for Buckley is to control the center of the Octagon and not over swing. Go watch Morales vs. Brady. Morales came out in a low stance, picking his punches wisely. Buckley has to do the same. Buckley only needs to land once. His missed punches make you look like Marilyn Monroe standing over subway grates. His missed punches will have you looking like Maverick hitting ten Gs in a Russian MiG. Buckley’s power is the eighth wonder of the MMA world. But that won’t matter if he can’t stay upright.   

Vegas believes Brady will control the fight with top control. He is the (-165) favorite, and Buckley is the (+135) live-ass dog. It’s hard to have faith in either of these guys after their previous performances. I can see Brady dominating on the mat, and I can see Buckley shucking off takedowns and landing wide, looping bombs. The finishing threat is Buckley. Brady will have to go the distance. Buckley isn’t a washed Leon or out-of-shape Kelvin Gastelum, the last two fighters Brady finished. But I don’t trust Buckley to stay on his feet until it’s too late. Give me Sean Brady via decision. On Wax. 

Props

Buckley: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+3500) Dec (+550)  

Brady: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+330) Dec (+150)

Winner: Sean Brady | Method: Decision

King Green (-375) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+295)

King: DK: $9.2k | Lil Heathen: DK: $7k

You already know King Green is my current favorite fighter. And he took belt to ass in his last fight against Daniel Zellhuber. King looked like my grandmammy after I trampled her petunias. No cap, like the national anthem. Zellhuber’s ass still has welts, and King Green is already stepping into the cage again. And after two straight dubs, he’s Chessboxing again. Yo! Hit that Wu-Tang “Da Mystery of Chessboxing!” And everyone else is just Checkersboxing. King Green is the Tupac of MMA. He lives that Thug Life like it’s tatted across his belly. King Green got his first career TKO in the lobby of the MGM Grand. But, unfortunately, King’s chin can’t take shots like Tupac. 

While King Green has lost a step over the years, so has his chin. The low tread indicator on his chin is showing. Actually, that MF is completely bald like Jada. King’s chin is riding on its rim. If his chin holds up, King Green can beat Jeremy Stephens with footwork. If he stands in front of Lil Heathen and trades shots, Green will go to sleep. But win or lose, I’ll still be riding with King Green. I’m just trying to get an invite to King’s gentleman’s club (strip club if you want to be a Richard about it). I’ve been riding since day one; that has to amount to at least a free lap dance. King Green fights for the money and the honey, homies.   

And Lil Heathen, Jeremy Stephens, fights because he likes to hurt people. Quit playing and hit that 21 Pilots “Heathens!” This guy went on MMA LOA for a couple of years, came back, and fought Cujo, a straight junkyard dog, Mason Jones. Who? Mason Jones. You can catch rabies fighting Jeremy Stephens. Stephens used MMA as a gateway drug into real hard shit like Bare Knuckle Boxing. Fighting in a cage just wasn’t hardcore enough for Lil Heathen. His game plan will never change; Stephens will step into the Octagon and throw bombs until someone goes to sleep. Stephens's hands have pins like grenades. He has to yell “Fire in the hole!” when he throws them. Homie is all hooks and overhands; he’d say, “Who da fook is that guy?” if a jab walked into the room. 

These odds are wild. King Green is the (-320) favorite, and Lil Heathen is the (+260) live-ass dog. I don’t bet against the homie King Green. But if I did, I wouldn’t be able to drop a Hamilton on a Stephens TKO/KO fast enough. King’s footwork isn’t as slick as it was just a couple of years ago. He takes a lot of shots, and he has that Benny Dariush chin. The bigger finishing threat is Jeremy Stephens. He only needs one punch, while King Green finishes fights with cumulative damage. I rarely pick King Green fights correctly. When I have Faith like George Michael, he loses. When I lose faith like Harvey Keitel in From Dusk Til Dawn, he wins. King Green via decision. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

King: TKO/KO (+225) Sub (+800) Dec (+110)  

Stephens: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+3500) Dec (+750)

Winner: King Green | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Joel Alvarez ($7.7k): Joel Alvarez is one of the UFC’s best-kept secrets. The reason you may not have heard of him is that he doesn’t fight very often. Alvarez is 23-3 with 5 TKOs/KOs and 17 submissions. He is 8-2 in the UFC, and his two losses came against Arman Tsarukyan and Damir Ismagulov, two absolute killers. Alvarez ran through everyone else he faced. Alvarez is a submission specialist with slick, nasty stand-up and a fetish for carving up people with elbows. He will be fighting Yaroslav Amosov, who has only one UFC bout. And that was against the very mid Neil Magny. Yaroslavl is strictly a grappling specialist. If he can’t get Alvarez to the mat early and often, he will get lit up on the feet. And even if he can get Alvarez to the mat, Alvarez has a slick guard; he can threaten submissions and force scrambles. Overall, I think Alvarez has more ways to win this fight. In twenty-three career dubs, Alvarez finished all but one.   

Mateusz Rebecki ($7.9k): I’ll concede that this is Grant Dawson’s fight to lose. He’s a wrestler who averages nearly four takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Rebecki only defends at 50%. But it can’t be overstated how awful Dawson’s striking is. All three of his career losses came via TKO/KO. Never forget the time King Green KO’d Dawson in thirty seconds with a single punch. Rebecki is an absolute savage. Win or lose, this guy will bleed for your money. In twenty-four career bouts, Rebecki has never been submitted. If he can buy any amount of time on his feet, he will piece up Grant Dawson, and likely finish Dawson. Dawson has shown a penchant for fading late in fights; it’s hard to wrestle for fifteen minutes. If Dawson gets stranded on his feet for even a few seconds, he will get got.  

Jeremy Stephens ($7k): As the biggest King Green fan alive, I have to say his chin worries me. Stephens throws nothing but bombs, and Green’s chin has all the stability of a Jenga tower missing 50% of its pieces. Green's chin is on the verge of being condemned by the city. If Green’s footwork isn’t on point, Stephens will catch him. Stephens has spent the past couple of years fighting in BKFC. If you can survive a bare-knuckle fight, an MMA fight is nothing. Don’t let Stephen's 0-6- 1 record in his last seven MMA bouts fool you. Go look at the competition he faced before leaving the sport. This guy has faced every big name in the lightweight division, past and present. The finishing threat in this matchup is Stephens. The red flag for Stephens is his output. He only averages three SLpM, and his Fantasy Value rests solely on scoring a finish.   

 $6k Clearance Rack  

Sean Strickland ($6.7k): It’s wild seeing a guy who averages six SLpM and who has recorded five straight fights recording over one hundred significant strikes, on the Clearance Rack. Strickland is an automatic one hundred strikes landed. But of course, he is facing the best MMA wrestler we’ve seen, maybe ever. But Strickland has something no other opponent of Chimaev has: he has trained extensively with Chimaev. When Chimaev locks up with Strickland, it won’t be the first time Strickland has felt Chimaev’s power and strength. The key to beating Chimaev is making him work, making him work for takedowns, and making him work on his feet. Strickland can buy enough time to create damage. Also, Strickland is the best arm puncher in the game. He never over-commits to punches, leaving his hips exposed. If Strickland can survive the first ten minutes (easier said than done), he has the style to beat Chimaev and score big Fantasy numbers along the way.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Mateusz Rebecki (+150): Never underestimate how supremely wack Grant Dawson’s striking is. If I were facing Dawson in a kickboxing/boxing match, I would be a (-1200) favorite. Dawson has to spend every second of this fight on the mat. If he comes up for air, Rebecki will box Grant’s face... off. Rebecki will Castor Troy that ass real nice, real proper. The key for Rebecki will be not giving up his back in the first round. If he can get the fight to the midway point and beyond, Dawson will fade, and Rebecki will take over on his feet.  

Joel Alvarez (+155): This fookin’ guy is an undercover killer. The biggest knock against Alvarez is that he doesn’t fight enough. His list of canceled fights is longer than his official record. In 23 career victories, Alvarez has 22 finishes, including 17 submissions. He will be up against a grappling specialist in Yaroslavl, Amosov, who was a Bellator Champion before coming to the UFC. Here’s the thing: This ain’t Bellator, pawtna. Alvarez has submissions from his back, submissions from the top, submissions on his feet; everywhere you look, this MF has submissions—even hidden up his sleeves when he’s rocking tank tops. And on his feet, Alvarez will slice, dice, and Ginsu Yaroslav with elbows and precise kickboxing.   

Joshua Van (+145): If Joshua Van loses, it will likely be by an early submission. Tatsuro Taira is the most dangerous submission specialist on the UFC roster. Taira is the Max Holloway of grappling; there is nothing like Taira on the mat. Historically, Van has had an impenetrable takedown defense (81%). But I say that to say this: Van will have to survive on his back early. Taira will take him to the mat. But if Van can avoid early submissions, he will slowly buy more time on his feet. Never forget when Brandon Royval beat Taira. Van can implement the same game plan, scrambling back to his feet and creating damage on the feet between takedown attempts. Van’s hands can’t make it past TSA screening at the airport. His power is unrivaled in the flyweight division.  

Pick ‘Em

Ateba Gautier (-1200) vs. Osman Diaz (+700) 

Winner: Ateba Gautier 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Joel Alvarez (+155) vs. Yaroslav Amosov (-180)  

Winner: Joel Alvarez 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Grant Dawson (-175) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+150)  

Winner: Mateusz Rebecki  

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Jim Miller (+255) vs. Jared Gordon (-310) 

Winner: Jared Gordon 

Method: Decision 

Roman Kopylov (+165) vs. Marco Tulio (-195)   

Winner: Roman Kopylov 

Method: Decision 

Pat Sabatini (-210) vs. William Gomis (+175)   

Winner: Pat Sabatini 

Method: Decision 

Baisangur Susurkaev (-650) vs. Djorden Santos (+450)  

Winner: Baisangur Susurkaev 

Method: Decision 

Clayton Carpenter (+155) vs. Jose Ochoa (-180)  

Winner: Jose Ochoa 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.