Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Conor McGregor (+185) vs. Max Holloway (-225)

McGregor: DK: $7.2k | Max: DK:$9k

In recent years, sightings of Conor McGregor have increased exponentially after his disappearance on July 10, 2021. Some people claimed, “He’s in the Caribbean sipping daiquiris with 2Pac.” One of the more plausible theories that emergedwas that McGregor was in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, working swing shifts at the RACW (Reenactors of the American Civil War) as a wooden leg amputee. His unceremonious ending in the rubber match against Dustin Poirier lent the theory credibility. Then, in January 2026, after acquiring the exclusive rights to the UFC, Paramount offered an undisclosed reward for any information leading to McGregor’s location.  

The announcement set off a gold rush of sorts, with untold numbers of treasure seekers taking to the far reaches of the globe in search of the “Notorious One,” Conor McGregor. For months, the reward went unclaimed. Then six sherpas from Nepal returned from a dangerous expedition to the summit of the Cocaine Mountain with a harrowing tale about a possible McGregor sighting. High out of their minds, they described weeks without sleep, random bar fights with old men, and an abominable beast known to stalk the sheer slopes: Cocaine Bear. As proof of their exploits, they unraveled a massive bear-skin rug with a thick layer of white powder covering its snout. To confirm the powder’s authenticity, a Paramount executive rubbed some of the residue over his gums and declared it 100% pure Peruvian white gold.  

Still, many weren’t convinced. That was until the UFC announced McGregor’s return at UFC 329. It’s no coincidence that the Sherpas haven’t been seen since coming forward. Many people believe they cashed in the reward and are now in the Caribbean, sipping daiquiris with 2Pac.  

Conor McGregor is back! What has he been up to for the last five years? Yo, DJ! Hit that Eric Clapton “Cocaine!” Cocaine and steroids are a helluva drug. Homie has been hitting the slopes. I’m talking about black-diamond moguls, doing double-cork 1080s. Fook Jeezy and Frosty, McGregor is the real Snow Man. You already know McGregor stays higher than nosebleeds—higher than a bird’s ass. My man gets so high that he snorts chemtrails. You have to wear a parachute just to interview him. One thing he hasn’t done in the last five years is sleep. Homie doesn’t even close his eyes when he sneezes. Whenever McGregor goes out—out to dinner, to the grocery store, or to the mailbox—he goes out like Tony Montana did at the end of Scarface.  

But McGregor hasn’t just been doing blow for five years; he’s also been doing steroids. To be fair, that’s protocol after snapping your tib/fib in half. But that doesn’t change the fact that he couldn’t pass a piss test for years. Piss hot? McGregor melts the porcelain. Rivers and lakes fill with three-eyed fish after he flushes. Upon his return, the first thing you’ll notice is his head. It’s fookin’ huge. He’s rocking that big-ass Barry Bonds/Joe Rogan head. And the last thing this guy needs is a bigger head. And the last thing Max Holloway needed was a bigger target.  

All that aside, the singular question that matters is: Can he still fight? The only scraps McGregor has been in since Dustin Poirier cracked his ass like an Atlanta airport cop was against an old man in a bar and on the big screen in Animal House. In the meantime, Max has fought for belts at two weight classes and two BMF belts. To me, McGregor has never been the same since boxing. Training exclusively for boxing ruined his MMA style. In his most recent bouts, McGregor was mostly all telegraphed left hands. Homie telegraphs his left hand like our government telegraphs false flags, “There are sleeper cells in America!”  

McGregor needs to go back to playing “Touch Butt” in the park. He needs his trademark in/out and lateral movement back. He has become too stationary and predictable. In the first fight, over a decade ago, McGregor kept Max on the back foot with his kicking game. High kicks, teeps, spinning shit: McGregor kept Max guessing. McGregor will still have the one-punch power advantage over Max. But he has to get back to being crafty to set it up.

The biggest issue for Mistic Mac will be that he’s fighting Max Holloway. McGregor should have fought Michael Chandler while he had the chance. Max still has frostbite on his balls from UFC 300. It’s like they got dipped in liquid nitrogen. Homie has those T-1000 balls. Homie has me decked out from head to toe in Patagonia Arctic apparel in the middle of a heat wave just thinking about Max knocking out Justin Fookin’ Gaethje at UFC 300. Since McGregor has been training for the Winter Olympics, Max has been participating in what is the equivalent of the MMA Squid Games. Homie fought Gaethje, Topuria, Poirier, and Charles in four consecutive fights. That’s like playing transfusion roulette with Magic Johnson, Charlie Sheen, Eazy-E, and Freddie Mercury and not so much as losing a pound. Fighting those four guys is like surviving one day as a kid in the 80s/90s, riding in truck beds, hitting warp speed on a merry-go-round, drinking water out of a hose, and blowing shit up with M-80s.  

Yo, DJ! Hit that Madonna “Like a Virgin!” That was Max the first time these two fought. Max needed a permission slip signed by his parents to fight McGregor the first time. And he had to be home before the streetlights came on. Max is a grown-ass man now. IDGAF about Max’s last fight. I was more disappointed in Charles than I was in Max. Spamming takedowns and riding out top control for twenty-five minutes in a BMF fight is filthy work. There is no way that Conor can keep up with Max’s pace. Max wins this fight with volume and dragging McGregor into the middle/late rounds. Speed and volume early and power late: that’s the game plan for Max. 

Max is the (-220) favorite, and McGregor is the (+185) live-ish dog. I think the oddsmakers are showing McGregor too much love. A guy like Dan Hooker would have been a better match-up for Conor’s comeback fight. Throwing him to a guy like Max seems like a fool’s errand. How will McGregor's surgically repaired leg hold up? Conor originally asked for this fight to be three rounds at 155 lbs; he’s already worried about his cardio. I will say this: I didn’t think Gaethje had much of a chance against Topuria, and we know how that turned out. The play for this is a TKO/KO finish. Either McGregor will land his left hand, or Max will drown him with volume on his way to a TKO finish. 

We’re streaking again. The main event dub streak sits at two after Rafael Fiziev landed a spinning wheel kick against Manuel Torres. I just don’t see how McGregor can keep up with Max if he doesn’t land an early left hand or head kick. He needs a home run shot. Coming off the couch after five years to fight Max Holloway is ambitious shit. Max Holloway via TKO, round three. Put it on wax. 

Props

Max: TKO/KO (-125) Sub (+1100) Dec (+550)  

McGregor: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+2500) Dec (+1200) 

Winner: Max Holloway | Method: TKO Rd.3

Benoit St. Denis (-155) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+130)

BSD: DK: $8.5k | Pimblett: DK: $7.7k

Hot take: Paddy had a better outing against Justin Fookin’ Gaethje than Topuria did. Other than the second round, Topuria got dominated. In their fight, Paddy had many moments, luring Gaethje into an unmitigated brawl. He threatened Gaethje all night with counter knees and uppercuts and even had Gaethje rocked on multiple occasions. And Paddy made it to the final bell. But, of course, Paddy looked like he ordered The Admiral’s Feast at Red Lobster with a shellfish allergy after the fight. Homie's face was so swollen it looked like it was noine months pregnant. They had to give Paddy’s face a C-section after that fight. If I fought Justin Gaethje and didn’t have two broken orbital bones and a broken nose after, it would be the only thing listed on my LinkedIn profile, and I’d hire an assistant to sift through all the one-digit job offers. After what Gaethje did to him, Ilia Topuria is going to be in the Plastic Surgery Hall of Fame with a bust next to Carrot Top’s.  

If this fight hits the mat, it will be a rare grappling firefight. But I’m going to assume the ground games will cancel each other out at some point, leaving us with a view-level stadium brawl. Though if I had to give an edge, it would go to BSD, who rocks a 72% takedown defense while averaging 4 takedowns per 15 minutes, compared to Paddy’s 44% defense and less than 1 takedown per 15 minutes. If BSD is hell-bent on getting Paddy to the mat, Paddy’s flying triangle will be live. Paddy is handy with triangles like Pythagoras. He finished three fights in his career by flying triangle chokes with his back against the cage. Paddy is an excellent scrambler with 10 career subs.  

On his feet, Paddy is a pick-up game striker; he throws hands on weekends just for fun and to stay in shape. Technique goes out the window when Paddy throws hands. He just flips on you like reciprocal fractions, alternating lefts/rights, and random uppercuts. Homie throws with No Reservations on some Anthony Bourdain type-ish. Paddy isn’t a striker; he just punches a lot. Overall, even though he lacks technical prowess, Paddy is more versatile on his feet than BSD. BSD wouldn’t last a full shot clock standing with Justin Gaethje. Paddy went twenty-five minutes with him.  

Even though he’s a terrible striker, I’ll say this about BSD: you’re tripping like The Beatles when they wrote “Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds” if you think BSD is a Salvatore Bonpensiero just because he’s French. This guy is a revolutionary, breaking harmful stereotypes every time he steps into the cage. Never forget when he turned Benny Dariush into an Amateur Night exotic dancer (stripper if you want to be a Richard about it). Benny looked like a thirsty THOT after BSD KO’d him. Thirsty-ass Benny. Somebody get him a drink of water. Yo, DJ! Hit that Waterboy! “It’s clean. It’s cold. Now that’s what I call high-quality H2O.” After he turned Benny into the Waterboy, he clapped Dan Hooker’s cheeks like one. BSD went straight Jack the Ripper against Hooker. He sent pieces of Hooker to the authorities in the mail after butchering Hooker. 

On the mat, BSD’s top control is better than Paddy’s. He takes a layer of skin with him when they rip him off at the end of rounds. It sounds like Velcro when they rip him off you. He has six career TKOs/KOs, and most of those were the result of vicious ground and pound. But it can’t be overstated how much of a liability his striking is. I just can’t take him as a serious title threat with his striking. He has Brendan Shaub stand-up, and we’re talking about open mics, not kickboxing. My man has stand-up like Polio wards in the early 1900s. I don’t care what he did to Benny; his path to a belt isn’t on his feet. He has to bully Paddy and return Paddy to the mat every time he scrambles to his feet. He needs to make this look like the Ruffy fight, when smothered Ruffy like a grease fire. 

BSD is the (-145) favorite, and Paddy is the (+125) live-ass dog. After surviving Gaethje, I thought Paddy would be the favorite. BSD has never experienced anything like Justin Fookin’ Gaethje. But, then again, maybe that Gaethje fight took some years off Paddy’s life. No one is ever the same after fighting Gaethje. But if Paddy can create separation against the cage and consistently get back to the center of the cage, he can KO BSD on the feet. I think Paddy is the bigger finishing threat. Paddy has only been finished once in his career, by submission over a decade ago. The play for Paddy is a TKO/KO. The play for BSD is a decision. Give me the dog. Paddy Pimblett via TKO, round three. On wax.  

Props

Pimblett: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+550) Dec (+400) 

BSD: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+330) Dec (+400)

Winner: Paddy Pimblett | Method: TKO Rd.3

Cory Sandhagen (-135) vs. Mario Bautista (+114)

Sandhagen: DK: $8.3k | Bautista: DK:$7.9k

Yo, DJ! Hit that Metallica “Enter Sandman!” The MMA Dan Marino is back. Marino was one of the best quarterbacks never to win a Super Bowl, and Sandhagen is one of the best fighters never to win a UFC belt. The Sandman has always boogied to the beat of his own 808 drum. He left a lucrative career as the Rocket City Trash Pandas mascot to sell pictures of his balls on OnlyFans. No cap like the national anthem. Before you laugh, just know that he reportedly made $2 million from portrait-style headshots of his balls. Similar to Conor McGregor when he made $100 million to fight Mayweather, and people questioned his motivation to continue fighting, I have to question the Sandman’s motivations. After becoming a millionaire, does he still have the hunger to make another title run? Wouldn’t it be easier just to take pictures of your balls in various action shots—playing Pickleball, jump roping, etc.—create generational wealth, and walk off into the sunset instead of fist-fighting the world’s best fighters? Whatever his motivation, Sandhagen is still willing to step into the Octagon and test his skills against the best in the world.  

I bet Cory’s balls think this write-up is about them; don’t you, don’t you? But it’s about one of the best bantamweight fighters in the game. This is a rematch of a 2019 fight, which Sandhagen won by first-round armbar. It remains Sandman’sonly UFC submission, and it was Mario Bautista’s UFC debut. A lot has changed for Bautista since then; not much has changed for Sandhagen. He still remains one of the most intricate strikers in the division. When Sandhagen commits to his striking, he’s a walking Saw contraption, utilizing stance switches and lateral movement to set inescapable traps. This is the man who developed the Theory of Striking Relativity: A Cory Sandhagen in motion stays in motion until acted upon by a Ref. He flows like a ball of mercury on a steel surface around the cage. Recommitting himself to his striking is the only way Sandhagen can make one more title run.

Somewhere along the way, Sandhagen had a mid-career crisis, trading in his striking for a singlet and Princess Leia earmuffs. Sandhagen's wrestling/grappling is good enough to lead him to victory against most of the division, but it isn’t good enough against the Merabs, Yans, and Umars of the division. Once again, Sandhagen will have a path to victory on the mat, taking advantage of Bautista’s 55% takedown defense, but it would serve him well to knock the dust off his striking and make a statement by outclassing Bautista on the feet.  

In many ways, Bautista is a slightly diluted version of Sandhagen. Like Sandhagen, Bautista is good enough to beat everyone in the division except whoever is holding the belt. He won noine of ten bouts since 2022 with his only loss coming against Umar. Bautista rebounded with a domination of a scary MF, Vinicius Oliveira. Bautista Punk’d Oliveira and we ain’t talking about Ashton Kutcher and practical jokes. Bautista Pulled up in the ‘85 firebird smoking a Marlboro red with Bon Jovi blaring waiting for Oliveira to get out of school so he could shake Oliveira down for his A-Team lunchbox. When Oliveira is old enough, Mario will sit him down and tell him about the birds and the bees. And we saw what Oliveira just did to Andre Fili a couple of weeks ago.

Although Bautista has gotten infinitely better since fighting Sandhagen in his debut, the result will be another L unless he goes full Wario Bautista on Sandhagen’s ass. Bautista needs to go full Dustin Poirier at the Atlanta airport, “It’s gonna be bad, my homie...” Bautista will have to out-strike Sandhagen and get escorted out of the cage in handcuffs, talking about, “You did the best you could, Cory.” But to do that, Bautista will have to stand on his head like an NHL goalie and defend takedowns. He’s gonna have to strap on those Marty McFly anti-gravity Jordans to stay upright. But if he can, he will make this a very close fight.   

Sandhagen is the (-145) favorite, and Bautista is the (+125) live-ass dog. If Cory isn’t careful, he could be the one on his back. Bautista is very good at blending different disciplines. His striking flows right into his wrestling. And on the feet, it could be anybody’s game. I still think Sandhagen is the more intricate/diverse striker, but Bautista is elite in his own right. This one is going the distance. These guys are too good, and the margin between winning and losing will be thin. But at the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, the Sandman only loses to champions. Cory Sandhagen via decision. Put it on wax. 

Props

Sandhagen: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1100) Dec (+165)

Bautista: TKO/KO (+1800) Sub (+1100) Dec (+165)

Winner: Cory Sandhagen | Method: Decision

Brandon Royval (+180) vs. Loner’er Kavanagh (-218)

Royval: DK: $7.4k | Kavanagh: DK: $8.8k

This is a changing-of-the-guard fight. After I completely wrote off Loner’er Kavanagh against Brandon Moreno, he parked his food truck outside my crib, serving ethnic inspired dishes inspired by my own words. For weeks, I ate my own words. On the bright side, I saved a grip on groceries. In my defense, Kavanagh looks like Shawn Hunter from Boy Meets World. We all had a kid on our baseball team with that haircut parted down the middle. He was the coach’s kid and always cried when he struck out. Kavanagh looks like he still has baby teeth. You can’t blame me for writing him off against one of the best Mexican fighters in MMA. I don’t know what I’m going to do if he beats Brandon Royval. I can’t imagine the kid who never hollered at Topanga, never even took a Steph Curry halfcourt shot, in a title fight against Joshua Van or Pantoja. But here we are, standing at the brink of that reality.  

Now quit playing, DJ, and hit that Kid Cudi “Day N Nite!” The lonely Loner’er stays away at night. You can call him Loner’er, but don’t you dare call him lonely. My criticism of Kavanagh has been that his style is too technically pleasing to the eye. My man is just too pretty. He needs a birthmark on his face—some blemishes, acne scars, or something. Homie needs to walk into that bish looking like Edward James Olmos. His strikes are just too straight and traditional. He needs to customize his striking, make it unique somehow. IDK, maybe I’m just nitpicking. But I’ll say this: he can be exploited like a child actor, defensively. His defense plays hooky and hangs out at the mall all day. Homie has lazy-ass defense. Take out the trash-ass defense. That’s how Silk E. Johnstone, aka Charles Johnson, KO’d him. Boy Meets Ass-whoopin’ is what Kavanagh was that night.  

Every time Kavanagh steps into the cage, he will always have a speed advantage. He has the fastest hands in the division. His hands are so fast that they sound like crotch rockets when he throws. His hands peel out at the line. Flock cameras clocked Kavanagh’s hands in the triple digits. Homie gets a ticket in the mail after every scrap. Against Royval, Kavanagh will have to fight volume with speed. Royval is most vulnerable when he extends combinations. Kavanagh will have to draw out Royval’s offense and pick his spots to counter. 

Brandon Royval is a microcosm of the American people: If he had any power, he could accomplish great things. But Royval has power like blackouts. When his hands land, it sounds like honking a clown’s nose. But he does land a lot. Homie throws so much that he keeps a Crown Royal bag filled with spare punches. He has a storage unit filled with spare punches. Royval floods your basement with punches. My man needs that Serve Pro sponsorship. He operates under the motto: Let your hands go; if they come back to you, they’re yours. Royval averages 5.5 SLpM compared to Kavanagh’s 4.1. His path to victory is outworking Kavanagh. Which is what I thought he was going to do to Manel Kape. 

But Royval never got a chance to outwork Kape because he got TKO’d in just over three minutes. With my parlay on the line, Royval shit the bed like Amber Heard, and rolled around in it like Johnny Depp before turning the lights on, “WTF is that smell?” That smell was Royval’s fight shorts after getting slept by Kape. Because everyone knows the last thing you do when you die is shit yourself. 

Fact Check:

This is an urban legend depicted in the popular tv show South Park. In a famous scene the boys kill Walmart and Walmart indeed shits itself.

With possibly another title shot on the line, Royval fumbled the bag like Kanye’s cousin. Wait for it... Now he’s working graveyards as a gatekeeper at the Bridge of Death, “He who would cross the Bridge of Death, must answer me these questions three.” Like Ferris Bueller once said: “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.”  

Loner’er Kavanagh is the (-235) favorite, and Royval is the (+195) live dog. Royval can win this fight with pressure and volume. Never forget when Kavanagh gassed out against Silk E. Johnstone, which led to his demise. Royval can push a pace that will break most fighters. With Royval coming in off his first UFC loss by true TKO/KO, I would give Kavanagh a slightly better chance at a finish. Royval will be a late finishing threat. But I think the play is a decision. Fantasy-wise, this will be a good fight to target. It should be a high-output affair. Watching the Kape fight, I said Royval was done. Done as a true contender. It was an ugly loss, and now I just can’t trust him. Loner’er Kavanagh via decision. On wax.  

Props

Kavanagh: TKO/KO (+225) Sub (+1800) Dec (+140)  

Royval: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+700) Dec (+350)

Winner: Loner’er Kavanagh | Method: Decision

King Green (+115) vs. Terrance McKinney (-135)

King: DK: $7.8k | McKinney: DK: $8.4k

I’m going to keep this one as short as this fight will be. If you’ve been rocking with the WKO for even five minutes, you know King Green is my favorite current fighter. In his prime, King Green was criminally underrated. Go watch his scrap against Rafael Fiziev to see King Green at his best. He got robbed of a dub that night by three NSAC judges wearing dead presidents masks—Nixon, Carter, and Reagan. One even mooned Green on his way out of the cage. Fast forward to Saturday night; this is King Green’s fight to lose. If he survives the first three minutes, he is guaranteed to win the fight. Terrance “& Phillip” McKinney has never won a UFC fight that went to the second round. And in twenty-six career scraps, he has only won a single fight outside of the first round.  

Yo, DJ! Hit that 2Pac “How Long Will They Mourn Me!” Kill or be killed: nobody stays true to the motto more than McKinney. Win or lose, this guy wastes no time. This guy goes on first dates wearing tear-away basketball warmups. My man rounds first base and turns back toward home plate. Fook it, this guy runs the bases in reverse order. He’s smoking a cig and flipping channels before the first kiss. McKinney wants to win or lose—doesn’t matter which—and skip all the shit between. If he can’t hit you with the first five shots, he saves the last one in the chamber for himself. This guy just mashes the gas pedal and either runs over you or goes out like Thelma and Louise driving off the side of the cliff.   

There is a 50% chance that he runs over King Green in the first thirty seconds. But there’s a 100% chance that he will get KO’d if he doesn't finish Green in the opening minutes. They’re doing my homie King Green dirty again. McKinney is the (-145) favorite, and King Green is the (+125) live and direct live-ass dog. Green has to play El Matador in the opening minutes. After that, he can go to work. I often pick against King Green, but I never bet against him. The only play is a TKO/KO one way or another. You may even want to sprinkle a little on a King Green submission. Green has ten career subs. The club-and-sub is live. King Green via TKO, round two. Wax on, wax off.

Props

McKinney: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+275) Dec (+2800)  

Green: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+650) Dec (+1800)

Winner: King Green | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

All-or-Nothing Options: 

King Green ($7.8k): These are two guys who could flip the board. King Green will either get KO’d within the first two minutes, or he will survive and KO Terrance McKinney. There are no other possible scenarios. If King Green doesn’t try to meet McKinney’s early aggression head-on and instead moves and picks his shots wisely, he will win this fight. Prime King Green walks through prime McKinney like automatic doors. King’s upside is an early KO, but his downside is also an early KO.

Nikita Krylov ($7.5k): Krylov is 31-11 with 13 TKOs/KOs and 16 subs. This guy is an undercover savage when he wants to be. This guy is like a bigger Terrance McKinney. He’s kill-or-be-killed, especially early. Krylov is at his best when he uses his erratic striking to create takedown opportunities. If he gets Robert Whittaker to the mat early, it could be a quick night for Bobby Knuckles. Whittaker will be making his light heavyweight debut. Keep in mind that Whittaker made his UFC debut as a welterweight. Whittaker will be a small light heavyweight, much like Alex Pereira was a small heavyweight. More than anything, Pereira lost to Gane because he was just too small. The same could be true for Whittaker moving up against a bigger guy who can take advantage of Whittaker’s biggest weakness: his grappling.

Conservative Options

Brandon Royval ($7.4k): We’ll find out quickly if Loner’er Kavanagh is ready for the top of the division. We’ll also find out if Brandon Royval is officially cooked. Although a finish is unlikely for Royval, he represents a more conservative Fantasy option. In fights that go the distance, Royval is practically a walking one hundred significant strikes landed. His only option against Kavanagh is to fight speed and athleticism with volume and pace. In Kavanagh’s only UFC loss, he faded midway through the second round against Charles Johnson. If he couldn’t handle Silk E. Johnstone’s pace, it would be nearly impossible to keep up with Royval’s pace. Win or lose, Royval can take the sting off an L by racking up significant strikes.   

Paddy Pimblett ($7.7k): Paddy will likely have to fight from his back early. That’s okay, though, because Paddy has subs from his back. Eventually, Paddy will defend a takedown, and when he does, BSD will be fooked. Paddy is far from a technical striker, but he did go five rounds with Justin Fookin’ Gaethje. And he had some big moments, rocking Gaethje multiple times. That fight was a damn war. BSD has never experienced anything like that. The more versatile striker is Paddy. If he can keep his back off the cage and create separation when it is against the cage, he will dominate the stand-up. Paddy can make up for lost time spent on the mat with 5.5 SLpM. Don’t forget, technically, he out-landed Gaethje 156-144. He earned my respect after the Gaethje fight. Especially after what Gaethje did to Topuria. 

 $6k Clearance Rack  

Kai Kamaka ($6.9k): This guy is like a refurbished Joshua Van. Kai Kamaka is in his second stint with the UFC. Although he’s a little stiff on his feet, this guy cracks like Bobby and Whitney. He will be facing the highly touted Luke Riley. Riley is the better fighter, but he has massive defensive holes in his striking. This guy is like James Harden on the Rockets, all offense and no defense. Riley’s chin will be there for Kamaka to tee off on all night long. Kamaka has twice the experience as Riley. Since leaving the UFC, Kamaka has gone 9-2 for multiple promotions, and both losses were split decisions. Most importantly, he has only been finished once in the last ten years. He’s likely to provide a full three rounds of work.  

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Paddy Pimblett (+122): BSD might have the worst striking in the lightweight division. IDGAF what he did to the Coachella hologram version of Benny Dariush. Although Paddy has terrible takedown defense, he is a solid grappler. With ten career subs, I think of him more as a grappler. I picked him to beat Gaethje (Shame! Shame! Shame!) because he is a mauler from the top position. Eventually, BSD will slow down, and Paddy will take over on his feet. It’s not pretty, Paddy’s striking, but he throws hard and mixes in spinning shit, flying shit, and nasty standing knees. I thought Paddy would be the favorite because of the difference in stand-up, even though neither is an elite striker.

Cody Durden (+205): Tyler Durden’s brother is back. He got his shift at the soap factory covered. When you least expect it, Cody Durden wins a fight. You’ll wince and turn your head away in disgust if you look at his record. He’s 2-6 in his last eight bouts. But he’s coming in off a dub against a respectable opponent, Jafel Filho. This guy is just a grinder with never-ending takedowns. When Durden gets into trouble, it’s always on his feet. Durden averages four takedowns per fifteen minutes. His short-notice opponent, Alessandro Costa, has excellent takedown defense (86%), but two of his three UFC losses came against high-level grapplers. If he’s anything, Cody Durden is a high-level grappler.  

Brandon Royval. (+185): Loner’er Kavanagh fades; Brandon Royval doesn’t. If Kavanagh hits a cardio wall as he did in the second round against Charles Johnson, Royval will fill him full of holes and leave him looking like the Bonnie and Clyde car after the police dumped clip after clip into it from their Browning automatic rifles. Royval can leave Kavanagh looking like a St. Valentine’s Day massacre victim if Kavanagh fades. Pace and volume can beat speed and athleticism.  

Twenty Twen-Twen Longshot Parlay

You gotta fight... for your right... to parlaaaaaay! If you parlay the Twenty Twen-Twen options this week, it will yield (+1822) odds. A $5 dollar sprinkle will pay out $91.

Pick ‘Em

Robert Whittaker (-133) vs. Nikita Krylov (+112)

Winner: Robert Whittaker

Method: TKO Rd.3

Gable Stevenson (-2800) vs. Elisha Ellison (+1250) 

Winner: Gable Stevenson

Method: TKO Rd.1

Cody Garbrandt (+330) vs. Adrian Yanez (-420) 

Winner: Adrian Yanez

Method: Decision

Luke Riley (-270) vs. Kai Kamaka (+220)

Winner: Luke Riley

Method: Decision

Tracy Cortez (-108) vs. Cong Wang (-112)  

Winner: Cong Wang

Method: Decision

Damian Pinas (-225) vs. Cesar Almeida (+185)  

Winner: Damian Pinas

Method: Decision

Farid Basharat (-675) vs. John Garza (+475) 

Winner: Farid Basharat

Method: Decision

Ryan Gandra (-133) vs. Zachary Reese (+112) 

Winner: Ryan Gandra

Method: TKO Rd.2

Cody Durden (+205) vs. Alessandro Costa (-245)  

Winner: Alessandro Costa

Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.