Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Ilia Topuria (-400) vs. Josh Emmett (+245)

Topuria: DK: $9.5k | Emmett: DK:$6.7k

Ilia. The locals refer to him by one name. He is legend. They say Ilia is the meanest Brahma to run the streets of Pamplona in several generations, the most aggressive of the most aggressive. Thirteen runs, only one survivor. The rest lay lifeless in his wake, marionettes broken, their pieces cast aside on the cobbled streets. Clothes turned to litter, insides turned to outsides, the stains left behind, blue hues, a testament to the haste at which the blood was spilled.  

The Running of Ilia. Despite dire warnings, they still come every year, determined to be the one. The one to best the fabled Ilia. Rumors have begun to spread. This year will be different. They call him Nomak, a man with the power in his hands to stop a literal bull in its tracks. Of course, they’ve heard it all before. But still... This one is different. He has struck down Brahmas before, the Ilias of their time.  

The locals often say: Beware of the man with no material gain at stake. The man who feels richly compensated by the mere act. Beware of he who ventures for the priceless and that which others deem worthless. Beware of the man who accepts that he may not reach the summit but takes pleasure in the climb despite it. When intentions are pure, man is at his most dangerous. Make no mistake, when Josh Emmett, aka Nomak, stands on the Pamplona streets, dawning the all-white garb and red scarf, in the direct path of Ilia Topuria, there will be no running. Legends are made most often when belts aren’t at stake.  

The last time we saw Ilia Topuria, the Octagon looked like the streets of Pamplona, Spain, and Topuria was running wild. It looked like Topuria gored Bryce Mitchell in the arse, and... Wait, what? 

Come again... And the terrible choice of words keeps piling up. It looked like Thug Nasty was impaled on Ilia’s horns and thrashed all about with no rodeo clowns around to jump in and save him. The second round of the Bryce Mitchell fight made me side-eye Topuria, like he had blown his cover and was no longer a sleeper. Ilia punished Mitchell on the feet and manhandled him on the mat. It was a mauling. Leo Dicaprio Revenant type-ish. Topuria was taken down for the first time in his career in that fight, but Bryce couldn’t do much with it because Bryce had already sustained severe damage on the feet in such a short period of time.  

Topuria is a Jack of all trades, a devastating power puncher on the feet, and a world-class wrestler/grappler on the mat. When I see Ilia, I see a mini-Arman Tsarukyan with more diverse hands. Ilia “Tempura” Topuria has crispy boxing and uses level change combinations to open up kill shots. My favorite combination is the 1-2-liver shot. Topuria’s special move is the liver shot; he uses it to set up his Lizzie Borden overhand right that chops downward like an ax stroke. The liver shot naturally puts the rear shoulder in position to land over the top. I don’t like leading with a liver shot—it’s a sandwich punch with something in front and something behind it—but Ilia often gets away with kickstarting combos with it or fits it behind a lead right hand. When the liver shot lands, the hands come down, and when the hands come down... Let the bodies hit the floor. 

What makes Topuria dangerous on the feet is his aggression and commitment to throwing combinations. When he commits to three to four-punch combos, cue The Beatnuts “Watch Out Now.” Topuria throws with reckless abandon but doesn’t over-swing and always stays within himself, ready to slip counter or level change if faced with return fire. But Ilia does have some major malfunctions. Although Ilia stepped up a weight class, Jai Herbert had Ilia rocked in the early minutes of their fight after a 50/50 exchange. Ilia shot an emergency takedown and survived and went on the leave Herbert in a smoldering heap in the second round. The key to striking with Ilia is using extended combinations to get his feet moving backward. Ilia can’t fight in retreat and doesn’t have the defensive presence to circle away from danger. Topuria does have some slick slip-counters, but he is mostly an offensive striker, and volume is the key to countering his counters. 

If Ilia is getting the worst of the striking, he has excellent power doubles and singles stowed away in his fanny pack with heavy ground and pound fastened with a carabiner. Bryce Mitchell was able to get Ilia to the mat, but Josh Emmett doesn’t have the same level of commitment to his wrestling that Mitchell does. I suspect if this fight goes to the ground, it will likely be Topuria initiating it. And Ilia may be forced to wrestle if he finds out he can’t handle Emmett’s power on the feet. Ilia’s path to victory is mixing both elements and creating damage where he can.  

Josh Emmett is the first fighter to score a 10-8 round against Blade. Dude looks like Nomak from Blade 2 and is probably just as dangerous. Emmett is a little M1 Abrams tank with a howitzer right hand. He’s the inspiration for the Master P No Limit Tank. When Josh Emmett lands bombs, he makes the crowd say, “Uhh!” He bombs atomically like Inspectah Deck. His style is that of an elite wrestler striker with heavy reliance on basic combinations and his right hand to cover distance. You won’t see intricate head movement or footwork from Emmett, but rather, basic 2-3's and 3-2's. Emmett doesn’t bounce or slide in and out of the pocket; he strafes. He uses those R2/L2 buttons to maneuver left and right while cutting off the cage and working pocket entry angles. He’s like a shark in the water, using its tail like a rotor to glide back and forth. 

What makes Emmett special is his power. His punches have an initial and secondary effect; they create aftershocks after they land and even when they don’t. Even when someone gets their guard up in time, the impact knocks them backward and looks good to judges as if the strike landed clean. This was the case when Emmett fought Calvin Kattar and edged out a controversial decision dub. Even when Kattar shelled up and defended Emmett’s strikes, it looked like Kattar was taking damage. 

Nomak is coming off a title fight drubbing at the hands of one of the most diverse strikers in the game, Yair Rodriguez. Emmett struggled with Yair’s speed and got caught watching all that CGI green screen shit. That night, Yair wrote the blueprint for beating Emmett; hurt him to the body, don’t headhunt. Those Yair repeated body kicks sounded like a good ol’ fashion back-alley mob beating with Louisville sluggers. The good news for Josh Emmett is that he won’t be fighting Yair Rodriguez and won’t have to worry about defending volume kicks. Ilia has borderline elite (soon to be determined) boxing, but going from Yair to Ilia is like climbing a McDonald’s PlayPlace jungle gym after free climbing the Cayan Tower in Dubai. 

The key to this fight will be wrestling and who decides to implement it. I think Emmett’s power could force Topuria into wrestling, and Emmett will need to be prepared to defend and get back to his feet. Ilia has only fought a full fifteen minutes once in his thirteen-fight career, while Emmett fought a hard twenty-five minutes against Kattar. The latter rounds will likely favor Emmett, especially if he can create damage early. 

This fight is dope with a cape on. Super dope. This fight is life imitating meme, the Spider-Man pointing meme projected into real life. Is Ilia Topuria the guy? Is Josh Emmett still the guy? They can’t both be the guy. Who’s the fooking guy? Vegas thinks Ilia Topuria is the guy. Topuria is a massive (-325) favorite, and Emmett is the (+260) neglected ASPCA commercial dog... Bring ‘em out! Bring ‘em out! Bust out the Piso Mojado signs; Emmett will be dripping with value and is in that magical Jacksons-to-Grants odds range. Topuria hasn’t faced this kind of power before, and there’s no telling how well he will be able to handle it. Emmett is 18-3 for his career with six TKO/KOs and has only been finished twice. Topuria is a perfect 13-0 with four TKO/KOs and eight subs. Three of those four TKO/KOs came in the UFC. His striking seems to be leveling up. An Emmett TKO/KO will return (+450). A Topuria TKO/KO will return (+165) and a sub (+140). 

The main event dub streak now sits at five after Jared Cannonier left Marvin Vettori looking like the Bonnie and Clyde car last weekend. I’m in a good position to take a risk on this one. And I had every intention of taking Josh Emmett, but I’ve been standing at the altar for a while, and I’m starting to get cold feet. Psyche! Josh Emmett via TKO, round three. On wax. 

Winner: Josh Emmett | Method: TKO Rd.3

Maycee Barber (+160) vs. Amanda Ribas (-195)

Barber: DK: $7.3k | Ribas: DK: $8.9k

This is a Freaky Friday matchup. It’s a grappler vs. striker matchup, but in this case, the grappler likes to strike, and the striker likes to grapple. Jitz Bae, Amanda Ribas, has wins over Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern and might be the best pure Jiu-Jitsu player in the women’s game. But she likes to stand and bang. “Let me bang, bro!” And Maycee Barber stepped onto the scene rocking intricate Karate-centric striking, but she now prefers to implement sensual clinch and grind against the cage. Ain’t nothin’ wrong with a little clinch and grind, but the sudden change in tactics has put a damper on her potential to be a real threat in the division. This fight will force Barber to rely on her striking, where she’ll have a clear advantage if she can remember the face of her father and stay true to her roots. 

Amanda Ribas could grapple her way into the flyweight title picture, but she often chooses style points over tactic. She averages over two takedowns per fight and has formidable top control that she could ride out to dubs all the way to the top. But she’s Brazillian, and those wild mf’ers love to stand and trade on the feet. Chute Box in Brazil was famous in the early days of MMA for its sparring sessions. They were fights, one hundred percent Kumate fights to the death. Iron sharpens iron, and all that. Ribas has that same mentality. She’s has to get punched and kicked in the face to feel alive. The problem is, her striking isn’t great. 

Ribas has that Mackenzie Dern mentality on the feet. Although the technical prowess is missing, they have no reservations, No Fear like the 90s shirts, and just come out the gate throwing heavy hands all over the Octagon. But Dern has sneaky power; Ribas doesn’t. Ribas has fetish punches, punches that cause more pleasure than pain. Some Hank Moody type-ish (IYKYK). She has an odd herky-jerky cadence and relies on volume and staying busy to win exchanges. But she doesn’t move her feet well and often gets caught lunging, reaching for punches. But she just goes for it. The bell rings, and she’s gone. Gone Girl. 

But Ribas’ path to victory will be on the mat. She has NFL minicamp power doubles and nifty Dominick Cruz knee taps that she implements well off her striking. Maycee Barber’s takedown defense is a Madden 20, and her only get-ups are ref stand-ups. Ribas can dominate this fight on the mat with 14:45 minutes of top control, allowing five seconds per round to secure a takedown. So, expect her to stand and bang with Barber. Ribas’ Fantasy value will be in takedowns and top control if she fights to her strengths, but she also averages nearly five significant strikes landed per minute on the feet. In eight UFC bouts, she only has two finishes, and Barber has yet to get finished in her fourteen-fight career; a Ribas finish will be a long shot.  

Some fighters die by the robbery, and others live by the robbery. Maycee Barber is the latter. Barber is an MMA felon, a wild west Billy the Kid dub thief. Barber is the Queen Pin of a massive stolen dub ring operation, and her home was recently raided like an ex-President’s. They found stolen dubs stashed under the floorboards and inside the walls like John Wayne Gacy victims. The irony is she didn’t have to jack those dubs. She could have won them legitimately had she trusted her striking and fought every round like she does the third. Amanda Ribas has that dog in her from the jump, but Barber only has it in the final five minutes. Barber is a habitual half-stepper who could use a little two-step in her life. 

Maycee has slick striking when she commits, but she often has trouble managing distance and looks like she’s hitting pads. She gets caught shadowboxing too far out of range and takes too long to reach that “Fook it!” mode when she commits fully to coming forward. When she does let her hands and feets go, she has good hand speed and a variety of Karate side kicks and Muay Thai round kicks. She has a perpetual in/out bounce with tight, technical hands and slick stance switches with slicing elbows on the inside. The problem is she’s playing it safe personified and prefers to clinch up against the cage. And she doesn’t necessarily look for takedowns from the position. But she won’t be able to do that to Amanda Ribas.  

Amanda Ribas is the (-180) favorite, and Baber is the (+150) dog. Maycee can win this fight on the feet if third-round Maycee shows up in the first round. She tends to only throw caution to the wind when she thinks she might be losing the fight heading into the final round. The bigger finishing threat will be Ribas on the mat. Barber is riding a four-fight dub streak but hasn’t finished a fight in her last six bouts. Amanda Ribas via decision. Put that ish on wax. 

Winner: Amanda Ribas | Method: Decision

Austen Lane (+145) vs. Justin Tafa (-175)

Lane: DK: $7.4k | Tafa: DK:$8.8k

Justin Tafa: 6-3 with six TKO/KOs. “Jane” Austen Lane: 12-3 with eleven TKO/KOs and one sub. This is one hundred percent finishing rate vs. one hundred percent finishing rate. Both these guys have that Antonio Cromartie finishing rate. Austen Lane is a former NFL tight end with limited skills but heavy power in his hands. And Justin Tafa is a more traditional kickboxer with even stupider power than Lane. You can call this one Dumb & Dumber. No matter what, have one of these guys on your Fantasy roster. 

Austen Lane fights like his parents jerked him / he looks like Brendan Shaub, the generic version. Lane is a Salvation Army secondhand Brendan Shaub, an Any Given Sunday locker room brawler. He has heavy, long punches but has a limited repertoire. Lane’s arsenal is mostly repetitive left/rights while running straight ahead. He’s a puncher, not a boxer. He fought twice on the Contender Series, his first appearance being a TKO loss to... Tom Hardy. I mean, Greg Hardy. His best quality is that he has a good feeling for range and tends to land consistently at the end of his punches. 

But his major malfunction is his ground game. If he can accidentally end up in the top position, he has devastating ground and pound, but if he ends up on the bottom, he’s in big trouble. His takedown defense is sauce. Chick-fil-A sauce. "Sauce Money" Lane is what they call him. On the mat, he combines Groupon beginner's Jiu-Jitsu with Presidential get-ups. It’s a deadly combination like Pac and Big L for all the wrong reasons. The good news is: The last thing Justin Tafa will do is shoot a takedown or attempt anything that could even be misinterpreted as a takedown. So why bring it up? I’m petty. And you know this, maaaan.  

Justin Tafa is a BBQ brawler who will crack your ass like you changed the Doobie Brothers station on Pandora. He’s a surprisingly agile southpaw kickboxer for his size and build—he’s built like a walrus—and has spontaneous combustion power in his left hand. His special moves are the Electric Slide step-back counter left hand when under pressure and a sneaky rear-leg head kick. You think there’s no way Tafa can get his oak tree leg all the way up to your head, and then you wake up from a twelve-year coma with a hermit beard. His left hand travels twelve to six like chopping wood and is hard to defend with a hand guard. If it touches you, you’re likely to be swept up with a feather duster. 

Tafa’s major malfunction is he never met a punch he didn’t eat. He’s all offense and no defense, and all his professional wins came against Love’s truck stop custodians. Janitors, if you want to be a Richard about it. Although Austen has more professional MMA experience, six of Tafa’s noine career fights came inside the Octagon. He will have the big show experience on his side, and he’s the more technical striker. 

Accordingly, Tafa is the (-175) favorite, and Lane is the (+145) dog. Tafa has been KO’d once in his career, and Lane is one of the more dangerous strikers Tafa has faced. Tafa has struggled against middle-tier competition like Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe. Austen is a better finisher than both guys combined and is more athletic. But I think Tafa has some subtle wrinkles in his striking that Lane doesn’t. A Tafa TKO/KO will return (-110), and a Lane TKO/KO will return (+325). I also think there is value in the fight going passed the round and a half mark at (+165). Austen may be able to tie up Tafa or even drag him to the mat and prolong the fight until... Justin Tafa, via TKO, round two. 

Winner: Justin Tafa | Method: TKO Rd.2

David Onama (+195) vs. Gabriel Santos (-240)

Onama: DK: $7k | Santos: DK: $9.2k

David Onama was one half of my 2022 Fight of the Year when he fought “Nizzy” Nate Landwehr in America’s finest city, San Diego. He took a Brazzers pounding in that fight but never gave up and had Nate wobbly in the closing seconds. Dog in him? He has a whole feral pack in him. Onama will be making his return for the first time since the Landwehr fight against a real sleeper on the mat and feet, Gabriel Santos. Santos is coming off a debut loss to Lerone Murphy, but the fight was very competitive, and in some areas, Murphy is better than Onama.  

Onama reminds me of a JV Israel Adesanya or a vegan recipe Stylebender. Izzy Lite has Raiden lightning-hand speed and long crispy punches. He has a laser beam boxer’s jab that he uses to create cover for his fight-ending right hand. Onama is a rare one-punch striker with a high output. Instead of traditional hand combinations strung together, Onama uses single strikes just outside the cadence of a combination. He strings together single shots in quick succession, setting his feet for each strike. If this fight was a kickboxing match, Onama might be the favorite. But it’s not, and he isn’t.  

Unfortunately, Onama has a forty-five percent takedown defense. He gave up eight takedowns in his debut against the absolute heathen Mason Jones, and Gabriel Santos has excellent level changes off his strikes and as counters to pressure. Good ol’ fashion passionate sprawl and brawl will be the key for Onama. For Onama, this is Pompei; the ground is lava. As soon as his ass hits the mat, he has to get back to his feet. Onama is 10-2 for his career with a one hundred percent finishing rate, six TKO/KOs, and four subs. His Fantasy value will be his speed and catching Santos slippin’ on the feet. 

Gabriel Santos is the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup. This guy is a danger to himself when he stands and bangs. He has some of the better pocket presence that you will see. Dude is calm under fire and refuses to evacuate the pocket. He’s the guy who doesn’t take heed to the hurricane warnings and boards up his windows and rides it out. When they say seek higher ground during a Tsunami, this guy grabs some floaties and a snorkel. This dude is the type to stumble upon a grizzly and stand there and scream at it. Make yourself big, they say. Gabriel Santos would be the first to try that shit. Dip out? Never that.  

Santos is a slick southpaw who flows between countering and attacking seamlessly. He refuses to take a step back and uses cover-and-return counters to stay in the pocket, where he can capitalize off his offense with takedowns. Random thought: Santos reminds me of Julio Arce when Arce actually shows up to fight. The x-factor will be Santos’ takedowns and top control. Against Lerone Murphy, Santos landed five takedowns and nearly a full round of top control. For his career, Santos is 10-1 with three TKO/KOs and four subs. His best chance to finish Onama will be on the mat. All four of Santos’ career subs came by rear-naked choke. 

Gabriel Santos will be the (-230) favorite, and Onama will return (+180). The difference is the ground game. Onama will have a decided power advantage on the feet, and Santos’ game plan will likely involve takedowns early and often. Onama’s upside is a TKO/KO finish because finishes are all he knows. But Onama showed against Landwehr that he’s as hard to kill as Marvin Vettori. He will be in this fight and have a chance to pull it off until the end. An Onama TKO/KO will return (+375), and a Santos sub will return (+200). But I think there’s a ton of value in a Santos decision at (+250). Gabriel Santos via decision. On wax. 

Winner: Gabriel Santos | Method: Decision

Bruno Silva (+150) vs. Brendan Allen (-200)

Silva: DK: $7.1k | Allen: DK:$9.1k

I got trust issues. I can’t trust either one of these fighters any further than I can piggyback Lizzo. Brendan Allen is one of the best fighters in the middleweight division. He’s a mirage in the Octagon; you almost swear you’re seeing a title challenger right before your eyes, but sometimes you take a closer look, and you’re not quite sure. Allen is a Kit Carson fighter who chooses the most rugged unincorporated path to victory with a golden road lined with happy singing munchkins two steps away. If his advantage is on the feet, he wrestles, and if the advantage lies on the mat, he insists on striking. Betting on or against Allen is like being on a Six Flags ride with sixty-story drops and 360 loops around. But if you bet on all eleven of Allen’s fights inside the Octagon, you walked away a winner noine times. And you can’t argue with that.  

The problem with Allen is his striking; it’s too good for his own good. His smooth kickboxing, complete with heavy body kicks and tight, technical boxing combos, is good enough to give him the confidence to stand and bang with anyone he fights, even if he has a massive advantage on the mat. On the mat, Allen reminds me of Fluffy Hernandez, a guy with an endless motor who can out-grapple Jiu-Jitsu specialists. His top control is like dead weight. He gave the Jitz Champ Andre Muniz no chance to work his guard from the bottom because Allen consistently flattened him against the mat. From the bottom, Allen has sneaky sweeps and can scramble his way out of any bad position, and if he takes your back, Houdini couldn’t escape Allen’s rear-naked choke. 

Against Bruno Silva, Allen will have to navigate around Silva’s stupid power on the feet and look to put him on the mat. Silva is a monster from the top position, but he’s much tamer from his back. Allen has won four in a row, three by rear-naked choke, and his value will be in another submission win. Bruno Silva is 23-8 for his career, and six of those L’s came by submission. Allen will have superior striking, but he lacks power, and what Bruno lacks in technical ability, he makes up for with power. 

Bruno Silva is 4-2 in the UFC with four finishes. He won the M-1 Global middleweight belt and went on a three-year hiatus before making his Octagon debut. Twenty of Silva’s career dubs came via TKO, and a lot of them were accomplished with heavy ground and pound from the top position. He hasn’t even begun to unleash his ground game in the UFC because he’s been having success on the feet. He has a tío-boracho-at-the-quince cadence on the feet, a hippie at a Hall & Oates concert carefree vibe to him in the cage in between intermittent periods of aggression. Silva is a Morse Code striker who fights in spurts, sudden stops, and starts. Out of nowhere, Silva will explode on you with a quick 1-2-3 and then fall back into a stupor. His punches are long, looping, and he has solid range management; he counters with quick 2-3's and can clip you before you even enter the pocket. 

There is no doubt Silva will take his chances on the feet. So far in the UFC, Silva only scored a takedown in one fight against Alex Pereira. Don’t let his lazy flow on the feet fool you; he averages nearly four and a half significant strikes landed per minute and is the higher output fighter. But he’ll need more output against Allen. The key for Silva will be pressure. Allen doesn’t fight well moving backward and has holes defensively. Silva has to set the pace on the feet and land something heavy early to turn Allen into a one-dimensional fighter with a wrestling mindset. When you know what’s coming, you can better deal with it. 

Allen is the (-180) favorite, and Silva is the (+150) dog with a massive upside. His power catches people by surprise. His skills don’t look world-beating on the feet, and fighters get lulled into a false sense of security because Silva doesn’t look the part of an elite striker. But like Nas only needs one mic, Bruno only needs one punch. Fantasy-wise, Bruno will have a ton of value as a low $7k roster option because he has finishing value. Allen can get got on the feet; Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland both finished Allen, and others have caused him problems. An Allen TKO/KO will return (+575) and a sub (+160). A Bruno Silva TKO/KO will return (+265). I’ve slept on Allen too many times, and I promised myself I wouldn’t do it this time. Brendan Allen via rear-naked choke, round three. Wax on, wax off. 

Winner: Brendan Allen | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Jack Jenkins ($7.6k): This dude is a little heathen with slick striking, complete with Justin Gaethje calf kicks. He also has excellent MMA wrestling, wrestling initiated by his striking. Jenkins will be up against another slick striker in Jamall Emmers, who fought Giga Chikadze to a close decision in 2020 and is coming off an impressive dub against Khusein Askhabov, a legit wrestler/grappler. The key for Jenkins will be damaging Emmers’ legs, hobbling him, and making this an MMA scrap, not just a fifteen-minute kickboxing match with four-ounce gloves. Jenkins is 11-2 for his career with five TKO/KOs and three subs, all rear naked chokes. He’s coming off a debut dub against a solid wrestler in Don Shainis, a fight that showed Jenkins’ well-rounded skills. In that fight, Jenkins landed eighty-two significant strikes and notched four takedowns with over six minutes of control time. Jenkins can put up solid numbers even in a loss. 

Gillian Robertson ($7.9k): She’s the Charles Oliveira of the women’s divisions, minus the striking. She has the most wins by submission (noine) than any woman in the promotion. This fight will take place where she thrives the most, on the mat. Her opponent, Tabatha Ricci, is a wrestler who needs top control to win fights, and Robertson won’t mind giving it to her, so Robertson can work her guard submissions. Gillian’s specialty is sweeps from her guard and back-takes. Six of her career subs were rear-naked chokes, and three were armbars. Guard subs will be vital against a fighter who averages over four and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. Robertson won’t rack up striking stats, but she’s a homerun sub-threat and can clock control time if she can reverse position. 

David Onama ($7k): He’s a home run hitter from both sides of the plate. Onama has KO power in both hands and has the speed to cause anyone problems on the feet. But his success will be dependent on staying on his feet. Although he rocks a forty-five percent takedown defense, he has decent get-ups and doesn’t accept being on his back. If he can force long stretches of stand-up, he will have a speed and power advantage against Gabriel Santos. And most importantly, Onama is ten for ten when it comes to finishing fights. All ten of his career dubs came via finish, six TKO/KOs, and four subs. His upside is a finish with an average of nearly five and a half significant strikes landed as a secondary value.  

6k Clearance Rack 

Josh Fookin’ Emmett (6.7k): This is a disrespectful price for Emmett. They got homie chilling on the janky rack in the back of the store next to the restrooms with all the food that has a less than twenty-four-hour shelf life. Topuria has yet to face a power puncher with elite-level experience like Josh Emmett. Before the Yair fight, Emmett won five in a row and seven out of eight. He has KO dubs over Michael Johnson and Ricardo Lamas and decision dubs over Calvin Kattar, Dan Ige, and Shane Burgos, all dangerous strikers. Topuria can get got on the feet; Jai Herbert almost did it (albeit at 155), and Emmett is far more dangerous than Herbert. The key for Emmett will be staying on his feet, but he has solid wrestling of his own. If this comes down to coin flip exchanges on the feet, I’m betting on Emmett.  

Plays of the Night

Gabriel Santos by Decision (+215): This price has been dropping by the minute. At the beginning of the week, a Santos decision was (+250). This will be a close fight, and the difference will likely be Santos's takedowns and top control. Like Steven Seagal, David Onama is Hard to Kill, and this one will likely be nip/tuck until the end. Onama is the bigger finishing threat, but Santos has the wrestling/grappling to ground Onama and salt away precious minutes.

Randy Brown via submission (+800): This one is a long shot. I’m a budget gambler, pitching Lincolns, Hamiltons, and Jacksons, and this one has Lincoln written all over it. The sneaky part of Brown’s game is his chokes. Brown is 16-5 for his career with six TKO/KOs and five subs. His long arms make him particularly handy with guillotines, and his striking is perfect for club and subs. Wellington Turman has yet to lose by submission, but he is vulnerable on the feet, making him prime for a knockdown and neck snatch. Also, Turman’s game plan will be to take down Brown, giving Brown plenty of opportunities to snatch the William Wallace guillotine.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Josh Emmett (+245): I’ve talked about him enough, but his biggest advantage will be in experience and overall level of competition faced. I saw the preflight presser, and Topuria is already talking about a title shot after this fight. Don’t sleep on Nomak. Like Nas only needs one mic, Emmett only needs one punch. Sell out to stay on the feet and let the bombs fly; that’s the game plan.

David Onama (+195): When you have this guy’s speed and power, you can finish any fight. Plus, Onama is a one hundred percent finisher for his career with six TKO/KOs and four subs. If, at some point, the Santos takedown well dries up, Onama will have superior physical attributes on the feet.

Philip Rowe (+135): When it comes to Philip Rowe, I’ve been in a coma. I’ve been sleeping on this guy while he has gone 3-1 in the UFC with a dub on the Contender Series. There’s no telling which Neil Magny will show up; he has impressive dubs and impressive L’s, and after one hundred UFC bouts, he may finally be on the decline. The striking will be even if Rowe can avoid the clinch and keep his back off the cage. Also, he needs to get off to a fast start. Rowe tends to ease into fights, and you can’t do that against this level of fighter.

Pick 'Em

Neil Magny (-165) vs. Philip Rowe (+135)

Winner: Neil Magny

 Method: Decision

Randy Brown (-240) vs. Wellington Turman (+190)

Winner: Randy Brown

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Mateusz Rebecki (-150) vs. Loik Radzhabov (+120)

Winner: Mateusz Rebecki

 Method: Decision

Tabatha Ricci (-130) vs. Gillian Robertson (+105)  

Winner: Tabatha Ricci

 Method: Decision

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-200) vs. Joshua Van (+160)

Winner: Zhalgas Zhumagulov

 Method: Decision

Trevor Peek (-115) vs. Jose Mariscal (-105)

Winner: Jose Mariscal

Method: TKO Rd.2

Jamall Emmers (-200) vs. Jack Jenkins (+170)

Winner: Jamall Emmers

Method: Decision

Tatsuro Taira (-250) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (+200)

Winner: Tatsuro Taira

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Cody Brundage (-200) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+150)

Winner: Cody Brundage

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.1

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.