Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Robert Whittaker (-155) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (+130)

Whittaker: DK: $8.4k | Aliskerov: DK:$7.8k

Cue the Birdman “What Happened to That Boy!” What the fook happened to Khmazat Chimeav? Somehow, he remains undefeated despite dropping two bouts against the flu. Homie has quickly turned into MMA’s bubble boy. He’s like the invading extraterrestrial tripods in War of the Worlds that are eventually defeated by human viruses that weaken their armor, leaving them vulnerable to human attacks. This MF caught smallpox somewhere between Independence Rock and Soda Springs. Chimaev is the guy who gets bitten by the zombie and doesn't tell anybody until he's gnawing on the pregnant lady's arm. The flu is Diddy, and Chimaev's immune system is Meek Mill. Someone get this guy some vitamin D. He spends so much time in the gym he never sees the sun. Of course, I would never say any of this out loud if he was within a one-hundred-square-block radius of me. In that case, I would look like Kat Williams posting a 4.9 forty at the combine. Also, I’m hurt. Emotionally. Whittaker vs. Chimaev would have been a banger, especially after possibly the worst card of all time last weekend. 

Circumstances scored a first-round TKO against Dana last weekend after the promotion lost Chimaev, McGregor, and Jamahal Hill on the same day. Dana looked like Phil Hawes getting poetically KO’d. The mix-up with all the cards within the last week reminds me of UFC 279 when the entire card was rearranged at the last minute because Khamzat missed weight for the main event against Nate Diaz. Nate ended up fighting Tony Ferguson, and Khamzat ended up fighting Kevin Holland. Ikram Aliskerov was scheduled to fight as the co-main event last week but now becomes a headliner against the former Champ Robert Whittaker. Aliskerov just got the golden ticket. He has an opportunity to go from unranked and just two fights within the UFC to leapfrogging into the number three spot, curiously eyeing his surroundings like Beetlejuice. 

Speaking of last week, here’s what I wrote about Aliskerov. I apologize to the loyal WKO homies who read last week’s issue. To those who didn’t, shame on you. Cerci shame. Shame! Shame! Shame! Anywho:  

“Ikram Aliskerov looks like a sprained Islam Makhachev – swollen Makhachev. When I first saw Ikram fight, I thought he was a typical Russian wrestler, but he has some solid stand-up to go with his grappling. His punches are like trebuchets that he launches over your defenses like castle walls. His arms are so long he can donkey punch you while standing in front of you. Overall, his striking is like watching a chubby kid do backflips. You just don’t expect a guy like Askerov to be as athletic as he is; he’s oddly nimble with dangerous hybrid Karate/Thai kicks and flying knees that materialize out of nowhere. This will be only his third UFC appearance, but he is 15-1 in his career with six TKO/KOs and five subs. That lone loss was a KO at the hands of Khamzat Chimaev.” 

Aliskerov has yet to bust out his wrestling/grappling. I know it’s stereotyping to assume a man with his last name can wrestle/grapple, but I’ll just have to withstand the backlash. Regardless, it won’t be easy taking down Bobby Knuckles, who rocks an eighty-two percent takedown defense like Eddie Murphy in the purple suit. Bobby’s takedown defense is like the flag on the fookin’ moon. There’s a more than solid chance that this fight will play out in its majority on the feet. If that’s the case, your guess is as good as mine as to whether Aliskerov has the technical skills on the feet to stand toe-to-toe with Bobby Knux. Ikram has spent only four minutes in the Octagon, while Whittaker has spent hours in the cage against the best the division has ever had to offer. But Whittaker’s tire tread warning is starting to show, and the Costco Tire Center guys are standing there rubbing their hands together like this here: 

In his last couple of fights, Whittaker has been dancing like your Tío double-fisting Modelos at the Quince. In his previous bout, a Paulo Costa wheel kick to the dome had Whittaker kicking up dust in a pair of snakeskin pointy boots. He has always been undersized at middleweight - throughout his career, he has struggled with the power of larger opponents. This matchup could be such an occurrence when Aliskerov’s power can make up for technical and speed discrepancies. But don’t get it fooked up like Deion’s toes; Bobby Knux has cracked more asses than plumbers and garbage disposals. This guy has forgotten more asses that he has cracked than your favorite proctologist. He has cracked more asses than pinkie fingers and single-ply. He’s the dude with the giant boot who was going to kick Bart’s ass in Australia.   

Bobby Knux is still a David Blaine street magician on the feet. His signature move is throwing his right leg and right hand simultaneously. It looks like he’s levitating, just hanging in midair like Prince after dunking on Charlie Murphy’s crew. And Bobby still has that Elon Neurolink hand speed. He just thinks about throwing a punch, and your head snaps back like a Driver’s Ed teacher sitting shotty. Bobby’s jab keeps you nodding like yes-men – like you just remembered it’s your son’s birthday next Saturday when Diddy invites you to an all-white party. Whittaker initiates his jab from the waist, making it hard to pick up in your lower peripheral while traveling a similar course as an uppercut. Off the jab, he can work miracles. He can work his way out of no-outs and the bases-loaded jam.   

The big difference between Aliskerov and Whittaker on the feet is that Whittaker shuffles the deck. Pick a card, any card. He mixes shit up and offers sleight-of-hand illusions, turning jabs into hooks and pulling head kicks out of hats. And on defense, Whittaker is a card counter; he knows the dealer’s hand. He anticipates your next move and uses speed and slips & rips to counter. Aliskerov isn’t an intricate striker. Jab, cross, hook, and flying knees. That’s Aliskerov’s arsenal. But the Aliskerov flying knee will be warming up with a donut in the on-deck circle on Saturday night. Whittaker ducks to his power side every time he throws his lead hand. If Aliskerov can time it... 

This is a lose-lose situation for Whittaker – all risk, no reward. Bobby’s style is such that he must sell out on every exchange to get inside the pocket. Every exchange is a risk. Stick and move. The ABCs of boxing. Day one class is in session. That’s what Whittaker will have to do against Aliskerov – stick to the fundamentals. Use his speed behind his jab to get inside and exit at angles/roll off punches to avoid return fire. The cage is lava: Whittaker has to stay away from the cage and avoid being trapped, allowing Aliskerov to close the gap with heavy punches and possible level changes.   

Bobby Knux is 25-7 for his career with noine TKO/KOs and five subs, and averages four and a half SLpM to Aliskerov’s eight. But Aliskerov’s output is skewed because each of his last two bouts and his bout on the Contender Series only lasted two minutes. Aliskerov is the bigger finishing threat. Whittaker hasn’t finished a fight since 2017, when he head-kicked Jacare Souza. He takes the D-Day running-up-Omaha-Beach-with-artillery-shells-and-body-parts-falling-around-him-with-no-available-cover path to victory in every single fight. Whittaker will have to avoid Aliskerov’s power for a full twenty-five minutes. The play for Aliskerov is a TKO finish, and the play for Whittaker is a decision. Whittaker will be the (-130) favorite, and the fact that Aliskerov is only a (+110) dog in only his third UFC bout against a two-time World Champ says all you need to know about Aliskerov’s skills and potential. If Aliskerov beats Whittaker, we could see Chimaev vs. Aliskerov 2. But that’s a big if because right meow, Chimaev is laid up in bed like Doc Holliday with tuberculosis.   

The main event losing streak sits at two after a crunchy little scrap between Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira ended prematurely, with Perez blowing out his knee in the second round. There have been several freak injuries in main events over the last two years, and I have lost every single one of them. And this pick couldn’t be more of a curve ball. Fook a curve ball, this is a Tim Wakefield knuckleball dancing all over the place. I have to go with Robert Whittaker. There’s just too much unknown about Aliskerov. What does his gas tank look like? And he hasn’t faced a world-class striker like Whittaker. Chimaev isn’t a world-class striker, and he slept Aliskerov with a lead uppercut. This kind of feels like Abus Magomedov vs. Sean Strikland. Robert Whittaker via decision. On wax.

Props 

Whittaker: TKO/KO (+180) Sub (+1600) Dec (+250)  

Aliskerov: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+700) Dec (+750) 

Winner: Robert Whittaker | Method: Decision

Sergei Pavlovich (-225) vs. Alexander Volkov (+175)

Pavlovich: DK: $8.7k | Volkov: DK: $7.5k

This one is a monster of the week death match. Sergei Pavlovich was discovered swatting airliners out of the sky after scaling the Empire State Building, and Alexander Volkov is Tiny from House of 1000 Corpses, dragging unsuspecting travelers back to Dr. Satan’s lair. This is a classic power vs. technique matchup. Sergei Pavlovich’s power is divine; many past opponents have reported experiencing ego death, the complete psychological separation from one’s internal beliefs preconditioned from birth after eating a Pavlovich haymaker. And Alexander Volkov will lay back in the cut like “Whut!” and dab your face with happy little jabs until your face peels off like a car decal. Pavlovich has twenty career fights, and seventeen ended in the first round. That’s called foreshadowing. Don’t look down to ash the doobie, or you might miss this one.   

Sergei Pavlovich has that “And let there be light!” power. Biblical power. You’re compelled to give the Sign of the Cross and say “Amen!” after every punch Pavlovich lands. He has that televangelist power – Bruce Almighty power. Pavlo’s power will have your granny sending him her social security checks so he can buy a PJ and globetrot spreading the fisticuffs gospel. This is the guy responsible for turning a dust particle into an amoeba and thus creating life. In the Octagon, Pavlo is a maelstrom of violence. Fighting him is like getting caught in an EF5 tornado inside a category five hurricane while Mt. Vesuvius erupts. Even when Pavlovich doesn’t land clean, you fly across the Octagon looking like Dave Chappelle taking a dump in slow-mo. You have to treat this guy like he’s a leper – you can’t let him touch you at all, or it’s a death sentence. That’s that Black Plague power. 

The key to Pavlo’s striking is arm angles. Pavlovich alternates his shoulder levels, allowing him to launch hands from extreme angles that can’t be thwarted with a traditional hand guard. He uses framed punches - he locks his arms at the elbow and throws punches like sturdy metal frames. There’s no whipping motion in his strikes. His special move is the shovel uppercut that he throws as a long-distance strike, almost like a jab, when the opponent covers up. There’s no feeling out process for Pavlovich; he comes straight out of the box ready to crack an ass. Every one of his fights looks like Homer kicking the Krusty Burglar’s ass: “Stoooooop! He’s already dead!”   

But of course, no one man should have all that power. Cue that Kanye shit! Pavlovich’s power comes at a cost: defensive prowess. As we saw in the Aspinall fight, Pavlovich has no defensive instincts. He wouldn’t move his head if Kate Winslet was posing for a fresco in the buff on a Victorian velvet sofa slightly off to his right. Pavlovich only engages in Max vs. Gaethje final ten-second exchanges and lets the chips fall where they may. Throw the striking stats out the window for this guy. It’s first-round TKO/KO or bust. If he can’t get Volkov out of there within the opening minutes, Volkov will systematically pick him apart.   

Don’t let Volkov’s appearance fool you. He looks like he wears those platform Velcro geriatric shoes with the three-inch rubber soles that can protect you from lightning strikes. The baby boomer 12’s. He moves like he needs an Epsom salt soak, slow and lethargic. But few fighters use every inch of their reach like Volkov. His special move is the five-toe death kick. It’s basically a bunion enema that will evict Mr. Hanky from your colon real quick. Volkov will use the teep to keep Pavlovich at a distance and to disrupt Pavlo’s wild blitzes. Imagine Drago: Volkov fights like he’s squaring up with his Demons, unleashing the lightning (his jab) and the thunder (his right hand) while staying out of his opponent’s range. And he will make me a believer if he can find a way to beat Pavlovich. 

Volkov has quietly amassed an 11-4 record within the UFC, and all four losses came to the best in the division: Tom Aspinall, Ciryl Gane, Derrick Lewis, and Curtis Blaydes. He’s coming in off a dismantling of Tai Tuivasa. He had Tuivasa double-fisting fists, punch drunk and broke because he kept playing Journey on the jukebox until Herb Dean cut him off in the second round. Volkov’s path to victory is using his range to avoid damage within the first five minutes. Survive and advance. With every passing minute, Volkov’s chances of winning will increase exponentially. Volkov has the shortest-long punches you will see, and they will have a custom fit between Pavlo’s wide hooks and overhands. Side note: Volkov’s and Sean Brady’s back tats should be playable characters in the UFC 5 video game.   

Pavlovich will be the (-225) favorite, and Volkov is the (+185) live dog. Pavlovich is kill-or-be-killed personified. He will empty the gas tank within the first five minutes, and if Volkov is still standing, it will be his fight to lose. Also, Volkov might fook around and score a little trip takedown if Pavlovich gets a little too out of pocket. The only time we’ve seen Pavlo on the mat, he was getting his ass cracked by Alistair Overeem in Pavlo’s debut, a first-round TKO loss. The play for Volkov is a mid to late TKO/KO; this one has zero chance of going the distance. But that first five minutes will be a mother-shut-your-mouf for Volkov to survive. Sergei Pavlovich via TKO, round one. Put it on wax.  

Props 

Pavlovich: TKO/KO (-145) Sub (+1600) Dec (+600)  

Volkov: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1400) Dec (+650) 

Winner: Sergei Pavlovich | Method: TKO Rd.1

Daniel Rodriguez (+200) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-250)

D-Rod: DK: $7.3k | Gastelum: DK:$8.9k

D-Rod is back. Daniel Rodriguez is a dog RAL (running at large) and shitting on lawns like ODB. Yeah, baby, D-Rod likes it raw. You need catch poles and a muzzle to control this vato. You start thinking you’re DMX in the booth laying down adlibs when you watch D-Rod fight. He’ll have you barking at the mailman and sniffing your homie’s ass (No Diddy) as soon as he starts spamming left hands. Speaking of dog shit, D-Rod will be up against Kelvin Gastelum, who looked like stepped-in dog shit in his return to welterweight against Sean Brady. Brady had to use a stick to scrape Gastelum off the bottom of his shoe after that fight. But we can chalk that up to Gastelum’s first massive weight cut in seven years. But if Gastelum steps into the cage halfway crookin’ again, D-Rod might have him cashing in his 401k after this one.   

Daniel Rodriguez is South Central Chris Leben. Chris Leben was a zombie in the cage, marching forward in the face of heavy fire while unloading nothing but left hands. Rodriguez is Chris Leben after they buried Leben in Pet Sematary. Some things are better left dead. D-Rod whoops your ass like it’s an initiation. When he starts leaning like a Cholo, you get to bleeding through your Polo, catching strays because D-Rod fires left hands like it’s New Year’s Eve. You’ll be chilling in your living room watching the ball drop, and a D-Rod left hand will land in your lap. D-Rod shambles around the Octagon; he’s a George Romero zombie and not one of those 28 Days Later zombies rocking PF Flyers. He marches you down while throwing nothing but left hands and right hooks. 

Rodriguez isn’t a technician or tactician, he’s a dog. He out-dogs you in the cage. His path to victory will be pressuring Gastelum. Kelvin’s hand speed is still superior to D-Rod's. The way to mitigate that is by cutting the cage and staying in Kelvin’s chest - not allowing Kelvin to use his speed to stay at range. D-Rod doesn’t have one-punch power; he batters and grinds you down and uses accumulative damage to end fights. D-Rod is 17-4 with eight TKO/KOs and four subs and is coming in off back-to-back losses to Neal Magny and Ian Garry. Rodriguez will be the much higher output striker, averaging over seven SLpM to Gastelum’s three and a half. Volume will be the key to swinging close rounds in D-Rod's favor.   

The clearance rack by the bathrooms used to be Kelvin Gastelum’s worst enemy. He had a solid career at middleweight, but he was always undersized and too undisciplined to make the welterweight limit. I have to say, he looked good during his return to the division. At least physically. Somewhere along the way, Gastelum forgot how to wrestle. And it was his wrestling that got him to the dance, winning the Ultimate Fighter by taking down Uriah Hall. Then, he developed crazy hand speed and became exclusively a striker.   

Gastelum Raiden teleports into the pocket behind his left hand and makes a living off getting inside on much longer/larger fighters. Or he used to, at least. His hands looked high against Sean Brady. They looked lethargic and lazy – like they just wanted to chill on the couch with a plate full of bagel bites. His hands looked like they hit that indica vape. His hands used to create sonic booms when he threw them. Now they get people honking, flipping the bird, and abusive language shouted at them when they’re in the fast lane. Against Brady, Gastelum’s hands looked like bikes riding in the car lane: 

“Hey! Get the fook outtta the road, homies!” 

“Hey! We ain’t your homies, buddy!” 

Brady was out there giving Gastelum noogies and Indigenous people arm burns. Gastelum got Baby Boy’d on the mat. Matter of fact, hit that Tyrese and Snoop Dogg shit! “You're just a baby boy. You're not the real McCoy...” We’ll find out if Gastelum is still the real McCoy this weekend. Against D-Rod, Gastelum won’t have to worry about defending takedowns. He can focus on using his hand speed (if he still has it) to manipulate the pocket. He’s only one fight removed from beating Chris Curtis, and his hands still looked crispy in that fight. But Gastelum has lost three of his last four and six of his last eight. We call that a bad look. 

Gastelum is the heavy (-240) favorite, and D-Rod is the (+195) live-ass dog. How much does Gastelum still have in the tank? This year has been a changing of the guard year. Many old-school fighters are starting to fade into the sunset, and Gastelum could be on that arc, too. The play for both fighters is a decision. Gastelum hasn’t finished a fight since 2017, and D-Rod hasn’t finished one in four fights. D-Rod is a steal as a low-tier Fantasy option. He is the higher-output striker, and he, too, won’t have to worry about takedowns (unless Gastelum decides to strap on the old Asic MatFlex again). D-Rod has eclipsed the one hundred significant strikes mark four times in his career. But this may be the last time I put my faith in Gastelum’s hand speed. Kelvin Gastelum via decision. Put it on wax.    

 Props 

Gastelum: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+900) Dec (+100)  

D-Rod: TKO/KO (+1100) Sub (+1800) Dec (+300) 

Winner: Kelvin Gastelum | Method: Decision

Johnny Walker (-110) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (-110)

Walker: DK: $8.2k | Oezdemir: DK: $8k

Now, throw your hands in the air! And wave ‘em like you just don’t care! Once again, Johnny Walker is stepping away from his Vegas residency as a pool DJ to engage in fisticuffs. Nobody dies harder than Johnny Walker. Johnny dies hard like that guy on The Green Mile who gets electrocuted in the electric chair without a wet sponge on his head. Johnny goes out like Eduard Delacroix: “He’s cookin’ now!” And Volkan Oezdemir is still standing here screaming “Fook the Free World!” after a first-round submission of GMO Anthony Smith, Bogdan Guskov. That fight went down as the Will & Jada Alopecia Bowl. And that win has aged well, as Guskov has won two straight after losing to Oezdemir. This should be a low-key stand-up banger. 

Volkan Oezdemir looks like the NOLA King Cake Baby. Speaking of babies, Oezedemir looks like one on the mat. He has that Koala-Kare-diaper-station-in-the-family-room-in-the-mall-guard from his back. That’s that Paraphilic Infantilism (adults identifying as babies) guard. And his takedown defense looks like old people in the shower. Homie breaks a hip trying to defend takedowns. If there ever was a time for Johnny Walker to wrestle, it would be against Oezdemir. But, likely, this fight will play out in its entirety on the feet. And Volkan has that death touch in his hands – he has that death grip, and I ain’t talking channel 99 and a pair of rabbit ears on a Friday night. Oezdemir has the shortest punches you will see among the heavier-weight classes. He throws one-inch overhands – little King Koopa hatchets over the top. And Volkan is a crafty pocket striker, taking his head off the centerline with every punch. Oezdemir is a master at winning 50/50 exchanges within close quarters.

Oezdemir is 19-7 for his career with twelve TKO/KOs and two subs. He averages four and a half SLpM, to Walker’s just over three and a half. Not only will Oezdemir have a power advantage on the feet, but he will also be a far more technical striker. Fantasy-wise, Volkan’s upside will be a TKO/KO. Walker has been finished on the feet five times in his career and once got KO’d three times in one round before he made it to the UFC (Google that). But the play for Oezdemir is a decision. I think Oedemir’s output will suffer because of Johnny’s reach and overall unorthodox pace on the feet. If Oezdemir can land fifty significant strikes, consider yourself lucky.   

Johnny Walker has a prehistoric style. His hands are like crude stone weapons, and he bludgeons and clubs his way to victory. He’s Turok fighting velociraptors with his bare hands. He’s a hidden character on Primal Rage. You remember that shit!? His striking hasn’t invented the wheel yet, and fire is still centuries away. “Me hit. Me hurt,” that’s the unabridged version of every Johnny Walker game plan. Walker can’t play small ball on the feet – he can’t work the count, hit behind the runner, or sacrifice bunt. He’s at his best when he’s participating in the Home Run Derby, throwing wild flying and spinning shit – taking risks and being unpredictable. Walker actually understood the assignment in his last bout against Magomed Ankalaev and came out doing old-school Johnny Walker shit. But he still went out in classic Phil Hawes fashion. In fact, Walker might be coming for Uncle Phil’s number-one spot like Luda. Yo, hit that shit! 

If this remains a technical kickboxing match, Johnny will lose. He has to create havoc and get Oezdemir out of his comfort zone. Johnny is 21-8 for his career with sixteen TKO/KOs and three subs. When he wins, it’s usually by TKO/KO. One hundred significant strikes, Walker only came close once. His average is usually somewhere between thirty and forty. Fantasy-wise, without a finish, both these guys are busts waiting to happen. Odds-wise, this is a Vegas pick ‘em, with both fighters returning (-110). If you’re betting straight up, the play for both is a decision. I think this one will have a weird flow/pace that will make a finish unlikely. Volkan Oezdemir via decision. On wax.   

Props 

Walker: TKO/KO (+215) Sub (+1100) Dec (+400)   

Oezdemir: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+1000) Dec (+400) 

Winner: Volkan Oezdemir | Method: Decision

Shara Magomedov (-510) vs. Joilton Lutterbach Antonio Trocoli (+410)

Shara: DK: $ k | Trocoli: DK:$ k

“A Russian ginger with one eye and a Lincoln four score and seven years ago beard.” That sounds like something someone typed into an AI generator. But that’s Shara Magomedov’s description to a T. He’s One Eyed Willy, aka the Fetty Wap of MMA, aka Stevie Ponder. This homie has that Univision, and I ain’t talking Spanish telenovelas. Shara is out here looking like Bill the Butcher. He sleeps with his glass eye open lest a Diddy be lurking in the closet. This will only be Shara’s second appearance inside the Octagon, but Shara is already somewhat of an MMA urban legend. He will be fighting Joilton Lutterback, a guy closing in on fifty MMA bouts with experience fighting for Brave FC and the PFL. This guy’s style has hype train derailer written all over it like vulgar solicitations written on a Valero restroom stall door.  

Shara Magomedov breaks all the Russian fighter tropes. He has no wrestling and is as unique a striker as you will find. Shara dominates fights with kicks: round kicks, question mark kicks, side kicks, snap kicks, hook kicks, and Diddy kicks. He’s a Harlem Globetrotter of kicks – an And 1 mixtape of kicks. This guy hits Rucker Park and kicks the shit out of people and slangs the tapes out the back of his Tracer like Master P. Shara uses his lead leg like a jab and his rear leg like a cross. What about his hands? He doesn’t have any like he got caught stealing in Saudi Arabia twice. In his debut against Bruno Silva, Shara didn’t throw a punch until the last ten seconds of the first round. The key to beating Shara in the stand-up is getting inside and forcing him to use his hands. He controls range with his kicks, but you can beat him with combinations if you can get inside. If. 

Shara is 12-0 with ten TKO/KOs and landed one hundred thirteen significant strikes against Bruno Silva. One hundred of those strikes were probably kicks. The key for Shara against Joilton Lutterbach will be staying on his feet. Bruno scored three takedowns and racked up nearly seven minutes of control time against Shara. Shara won a unanimous decision because the stand-up was so lopsided. But Shara’s takedown defense looked like umbrellas on windy days. It looked like the house in Wizard of Oz. I say all that to say this: Sound the fookin alarms! We have a Robelis Despaigne red alert in full effect! If you remember Despaigne looked like Godzilla on the feet and the Geico Gecko on the mat.  

Antonio Trocoli has been scheduled to fight three different opponents over the last four cards and is stepping in on two-days notice. He was originally scheduled to fight Aliskerov in the co-main event last week. Here is what I wrote last week about Trocoli: 

“Antonio Trocoli is 12-3 with three TKO/KOs and five subs. That’s it. That’s all I got. “Hey, you just read his stats; I could’ve done that.” Okay, okay. Homie is built like the Space Needle and looks like a Fabricio Werdum MTV Spring Break love child. He wears a reflective hat on top of his head so planes don’t fly into him. This guy hasn’t fought since 2021 and only has one fight since 2019. This MF is basically coming out of retirement to fight a guy who has been stacking bodies like Pringles. Homie must have a Charles Bronson Death Wish (againstAliskerov). Overall, Trocoli is more of a Jiu-Jitsu specialist, but he is long and could cause fighters problems on their feet in the future. By future, I mean beyond Saturday night.” 

But against Shara, he won’t have to rely on his striking because he has the Jiu-Jitsu to completely circumvent Shara’s striking. This could be a more difficult matchup than Shara’s original opponent, Joilton Lutterbach, who was one of my Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers before he dropped the bout at the last minute. Shara will be a big favorite, but Trocoli can stop the hype train with his grappling. The big question about Trocoli is how he will look after minimal cage time over the last couple of years. The play for Shara is a TKO/KO, and the play for Trocoli is a decision, but there is also value in a win by submission. Shara looked like an invalid from his back against Bruno Silva, and Trocoli has a much bigger frame than Shara. I picked Shara’s original opponent, Lutterbach, to pull off the upset by scoring takedowns and controlling the top position. But that was because Lutterbach also had solid striking to help set up his takedowns. The upset alert is still in effect, but I’m leaning toward Shara because I’m not sure about Trocoli’s striking. But Trocoli can win this fight. Shara Magomedov via decision. Put it on wax.

Props 

Magomedov: TKO/KO ( ) Sub ( ) Dec ( )   

Trocoli: TKO/KO ( ) Sub ( ) Dec ( ) 

Winner: Shara Mogomedov | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Nicolas Dalby ($7k): The most slept-on since Rip Van Wink. Nicolas Dalby is your favorite sleeper’s favorite sleeper. You may remember Dalby from his big upset win last November against Gabriel Bonfim. Dalby Digital is the epitome of survive and advance. If you don’t get Dalby out of there early, he’ll haunt you late. His striking is tricky, and his anti-wrestling is underrated. You can take Dalby down—and Rinat Fakhretdinivo will definitely do that—but it’s hard to keep Dalby down. Can’t nobody hold him down oooooh! Dalby has won four in a row and five of his last six. The biggest knock against Dalby is that he’s not a finisher. The Bonfim fight was the first one Dalby has finished in twelve UFC bouts. But I think this fight has the chance to play out exactly how the Bonfim fight played out. Rinat showed in his last bout that once the takedown well dries up, he’s a very average striker with a limited gas tank. Rinat will dominate early, but if Dalby can survive, he’ll take over the second half of the fight.   

Ikram Aliskerov ($7.8k): Who the fook knows how the main event will play out? It could turn out to be another vintage Bobby Knuckles dominant performance or the emergence of a new contender. Ikram has devastating power and an awkward style that can give anybody problems on the feet. Also, Whittaker’s chin has been awfully suspect in recent fights. Du Plessis dropped Whitty with a jab before finishing him, and Paulo Pasta had Whitty on a pair of Heelys, skating around the mall after a wheel kick. But the unknowns about Aliskerov are far greater than what is known. Can his cardio hold up for five rounds? Can he get the fight to the mat if he’s behind in the striking? One thing we do know, he cracks like plumbers’ asses and will have more than a puncher's chance to steal a dub. The play for Ikram is a TKO/KO finish, and so is his Fantasy value. It’s TKO/KO or bust for Aliskerov, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he pulls it off.   

Daniel Rodriguez ($7.3k): After his last performance against Sean Brady, Kelvin Gastelum can never be fully trusted again. Granted, Brady was able to take down Gastelum at will, and D-Rod is far from a wrestler, but Gastelum looked slow for the first time in his career. D-Rod is a high output striker, averaging nearly seven and a half SLpM, and has landed over one hunnid significant strikes four times in his UFC career. If Gastelum gives up on his wrestling after a failed attempt or two to take down D-Rod, the output and pressure will heavily favor D-Rod. Also, D-Rod can turn this into a grimy fight in the pocket where Gastelum is least effective. Gastelum relies on his speed to get in/out of the pocket, but D-Rod's menacing pressure can take that away. This will be a nip/tuck close scrap until the final bell, and D-Rod can steal close rounds by outworking Gastelum.   

 $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Brendson Ribeiro ($6.9k): Brendson Ribeiro is the only clearance rack option this week, which makes this pick easy. But don’t sleep on him. Ribeiro is a daredevil striker who will not hesitate to go out on his shield, as we saw in his debut against Mingyang Zhang. That was a two-minute war on the feet. Ribeiro will engage in nothing but 50/50 exchanges and has long, sneaky striking with some catch-you-by-the-boo-boo power. Also, he’s no chump on the mat. He has six career subs to go along with noine TKO/KOs. He will likely spend extended time on his back against Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, but he’s handy with head-and-arm chokes and guillotines. Gadzhi will be making his debut and has limited experience, rocking an 8-0 record. Wrestling for fifteen minutes is Gadzhi’s path to victory, and that’s hard to do at this level. Eventually, wrestlers gas, and if that happens, it will be Ribeiro’s time to shine.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Nicolas Dalby (+275): In his last bout, Dalby was a (+350) dog and cashed in. This fight could look exactly like the Gabriel Bonfim fight. Dalby will have to fight from his back early, but his grappling is highly underrated. He has trouble staying upright, but he’s good at scrambling back to his feet and forcing opponents to burn energy returning him to the mat. That is what happened to Bonfim. Having to return Dalby to the mat after Dalby repeatedly scrambled back to his feet eventually gassed Bonfim, and Dalby took over on the feet. Dalby’s striking is also underrated, and he will have a clear advantage in the striking. Fakhretdinov is strictly a power striker on the feet and lacks the footwork and combinations of Dalby. Keep an eye out for Dalby’s lead leg. He has sneaky head kicks that he hides well behind his punches. If Dalby pulls this one off, we’re going to Sizzler.   

Joilton Lutterbach Antonio Trocoli (+410): I thought Shara’s original opponent, Joilton Lutterbach, was a live dog because he could take down Shara when Shara gets out of pocket - over aggressive and leaves himself open to level changes. Antonio Trocoli has a much bigger frame than Lutterbach who has competed as low as lightweight. And Trocoli fought at light heavyweight on the Contender Series. This has a Robelis Despaigne upset written all over it if Trocoli can consistently get Shara to the mat like Bruno Silva did.

Daniel Rodriguez (+200): This is a crazy number for this bout. Especially since Kelvin Gastelum hasn’t finished a fight since 2017. That means this will be a close bout to the finish. And D-Rod is the higher-output striker and is overall far more aggressive than Gastelum. D-Rod is coming in off back-to-back Ls, including a head kick TKO loss against Ian Garry, but that was the first time in D-Rod's career that he was finished on the feet. Gastelum prefers controlled exchanges initiated at range, and D-Rod has the style to make this a dogfight within close quarters. I picked Gastelum to win by decision, thinking he may still have some hand speed left to burn, but I have zero confidence in that. My money will be where my mouth isn’t for this bout.  

Pick ‘Em 

Muhammadjon Naimov (-125) vs. Felipe Lima (+100) 

Winner:  Felipe Lima

Method:  Decision

Nasrat Haqparast  (-240) vs. Jared Gordon (+195) 

Winner: Nasrat Haqparast 

Method: Decision 

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-350) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+275) 

Winner: Nicolas Dalby 

Method: Decision 

Kyung Ho Kang (+130) vs. Muin Gafurov (-155) 

Winner: Muin Gafurov 

Method: Decision 

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-310) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+250) 

Winner: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 

Method: Decisioin 

Long Xiao (-115) vs. Chang Ho Lee (-105) 

Winner: Long Xiao 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1