Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Ian Garry (-135) vs. Carlos Prates (+115)

Garry: DK: $8.5k | Prates: DK:$7.7k

Hide your book reports, volcano dioramas, and clarinets. The fighting nerds are back. Back? They never left. In high school, these were the guys you tried to sit next to on test days. These are the guys whose Scantrons you peeked at around the paper dividers. These guys ace every test like they wrote the fookin’ thing. Carlos Prates is the Lisa Simpson of MMA. This MF is smarter than the teacher. When the teacher is absent, you can catch Carlos Prates with his feet on the desk and a crisp Fuji apple in his hand. This guy holds roll call like his name is Mr. Garvey, “A-A-Ron, where are you? Where is A-A-Ron right now?” Prates holds Parent/Teacher conferences after he kicks your ass. Pass/Fail: Everybody gets held back a grade when they fight a Fighting Nerd. The Fighting Nerds are a group of fight geniuses, the Newtons, Einsteins, Hawkings, and da Vincis of MMA, who geek out harder than a president’s son. Geek out harder than Oscar De La Hoya shopping at Fredrick’s of Hollywood. But don’t look now. Their collective GPA could dip below 5.0 if Ian Garry can do what he does best: Turn a surefire banger into a boring, tepidly contested striking affair.   

Carlos Prates is a freaky MF, and I ain’t talking foot fetishes, bird cage swings with stirrups hanging from the ceiling, or detachable accessories and downward dog. I’m talking, waking up in a cold sweat, screaming freaky. Matter of fact, hit that Freak on a Leash! Prates fooks shit up like the bullet in the music video. Knockout artist, Prates has already Got the Life. Prates will punch a hole in your chest and rip out your heart so quickly it’ll pump blue blood while it beats in his hand. It sounds like a 0.0 dive off the Olympic platform when Prates lands. All splash. His hands wear little banana hammocks. Ya’ll Want a Single? Prates is a high-output one-punch striker. He throws successive single shots that are a beat off from combinations. And he has a special move: The Sagat Tiger Knee. He uses a long, impaling standing knee as a counter and to punctuate strikes. Homie will be Here to Stay as a legit title challenger if he can run through Ian Garry like the bubble guts as he did his first four UFC opponents. 

Prates’ Path of Totality is making Ian Garry fight off instincts and not memory. He can’t let Garry use his range to sit back and recite pre-programmed combinations and turn this fight into a point-kickboxing match. Defensively, Prates can get got. His defensive awareness is intermittent. It comes and goes. Sometimes, he has slick slip n’ rips and shoulder rolls. Other times, he relies strictly on range and leaves his chin hanging perilously in the air after throwing. The big question is Prates’ cardio. Can he go five rounds if he can’t get Garry out of there early? Prates has only been to a three-round decision three times in his twenty-seven-fight career.   

Prates is 21-6 for his career with sixteen TKO/KOs and three subs, including four straight KOs to begin his UFC career. This guy plays for keeps. He doesn’t play for scorecards. If he can’t knock you out in this life, he will See You on the Other Side. In this life or the next on some Maximus Decimus Meridius type-shit. Fantasy-wise, both fighters average around four and a half SLpM, but the most telling stat is Prates’ seventy-eight-inch reach compared to Garry’s seventy-four. Garry is used to being the longer, rangier fighter. Prates won’t have to rely on getting inside to land on Garry.  

You already know what time it is. Hit that 50 Cent “Many Men!” Many men, many, many, many, many men. Wish death upon Ian Garry. Get to the Score Cards or Die Trying. Opposites attract, and these two swiped right. Ian Garry is the Heaven to Carlos Prates’ Hell. He’s the Flanders to Prates’ Homer. Garry’s special power is making fights boring. And that isn’t a diss. You can’t argue with a 15-1 record, the lone loss, a decision to Shavkat. But the knock against Garry is that he fights painfully inside the box like a contortionist. He doesn’t venture out much. Homie is a striking homebody. Garry is a total square, an L-Seven Weenie on the feet.  

But there isn’t a more technical fighter within the division. Garry is a master of range and rarely takes big shots. But his point style and exciting fights don’t mix like ammonia and bleach. This guy managed to make a Shavkat fight a yawner. Garry only takes home ugly wins. I’m talking 3’s and 4’s. He has to wait until his roommates go to bed before sneaking them into his room. Those Walk of Shame dubs. If you asked an AI generator to personify Garry’s dubs, they’d create a picture of Li Jingliang, the inspiration for The Predator without his mask. But like T-Pain, all Garry does is win, win, win no matter what.

If you’re praying for Garry’s downfall like he’s Biggie, this fight could answer those prayers. Prates has the aggressive style to get Garry out of his comfort zone. I thought Shavkat would do that, but he fought a safe fight. Garry has still yet to stumble on the wrong side of the tracks where shoes hang by their laces from telephone wires, every corner has a liquor store, and wearing certain colors will get you got real quick. He hasn’t been in a Maverick and Goose dogfight yet. Deep waters? Homie wades in the pool at the end of a Slip N’ Slide. Ian Garry is a pace car on the feet. You have to pull up in the Wonder Bread NASCAR and go full Ricky Bobby. “Don’t stick that knife in your leg.” Stick the knife in your leg. Fook it! You gotta put that evil on Ian Garry.   

Garry’s last four fights went the distance. His path to victory is out-pointing Prates from the outside, using his far superior technical strikes. More specifically, his path to victory is down the middle. He will beat Prates between the shoulders every time he throws. Garry’s tight, straight punches will beat Prates’ long, wide punches all night long. A decision will favor Garry dominating from range and controlling the exchanges, keeping them at the traditional tempo he likes. An early finish favors Prates’ more unpredictable kill-or-be-killed style.   

Garry will be the (-130) favorite, and Prates will be the (+110) live-ass dog. Fighting Nerds don’t lose. Prates has to lead the dance, take risks, and not get lulled into a sparring match. He’s the bigger finishing threat. Prates has been finished five times in his career but only twice by TKO/KO. I don’t think Prates will be able to rely on an early finish. He will have to accumulate damage and break down Garry over twenty-five minutes.   

Don’t look now, but the main event dub streak now sits at four after Alexader Volkanovski recaptured the featherweight belt two weeks ago. This pick is a tricky one. I came here with every intention of picking Carlos Prates. But I see technical holes in his striking. And Ian Garry is one of the few strikers in the division who can exploit them. Fighters have a hard time navigating Garry’s range. If he can avoid getting hit with something wild early, I see him stifling Prates in the middle/late rounds. Ian Garry via decision. Put it on wax.  

Props

Garry: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+600) Dec (+225) 

Prates: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+1800) Dec (+750)

Winner: Ian Garry | Method: Decision

Anthony Smith (+355) vs. Mingyang Zhang (-490)

Smith: DK: $6.6k | Zhang: DK: $9.6k

Let’s go, Anthony Smith! The Last Dance. This is Anthony Smith’s swan song. Agent Smith will always be remembered for accusing Johnny Walker of kidnapping his family in the middle of the fight. Imagining your opponent committing atrocities to hype yourself up is diabolical work. “I tried to walk away. I was retired. Then you broke into my house, stole my ‘69 Mustang, and killed my dog.”  

“Uh... that’s the plot for John Wick, Anthony.”  

“If you let my daughter go now, I will not KO you. I will not submit you. But if you don’t... I will look for you... I will find you.” 

“That’s Taken, Anthony.” 

Anthony Smith turns into Mel Gibson at his son’s school pick-up, “Give me back my son!" Homie goes to a dark place before he fights. I’m talking the bottom of the ocean dark. He has eyes like a cuttlefish. Like Vin Diesel in Pitch Black. Smith has to walk around wearing those corny glasses they give you after an eye exam. Yo! Hit that Simon and Garfunkel “The Sound of Silence!” If you could see into Anthony Smith’s mind, you couldn’t. Exit light; enter Anthony Smith. In addition to having a lawyer present in your corner when you fight Anthony Smith, you better have an exorcist.   

The final fight of one of the greatest finishers in MMA history, with thirty-five finishes in thirty-eight career dubs, comes at the perfect time. Lately, Smith has been looking like Mater, getting the hub caps, muffler, and hood beat off him. Of Smith's twenty-one career Ls, sixteen came via finish. This will be Anthony’s sixtieth career fight, and only eight of them went the distance. Anthony can beat the monster Mingyang Zhang on the mat. In his prime, Anthony could beat him on the feet, too. But Smith has taken too much damage over the years. His path to victory will be closing the distance and using his grappling. He has fifteen career subs in addition to twenty TKO/KOs. Mingyang has only been outside the first round three times in twenty-four career bouts. And he hasn’t seen a second round in fifteen straight fights. Smith needs to get this out of the first round to have a chance to ride a dub off into the sunset.   

Mingyang Zhang is Mr. 100. He has a one-hunnid percent finishing rate and nearly a one-hunnid percent finished rate. Of his six career Ls, he was finished five times. Only one of his fights has gone to a decision. Every one of this guy’s fights looks like Randy Marsh vs. Bat Dad. Every fight ends with Zhang in handcuffs and his fight shorts around his ankles, “I’m sorry, Officer. I thought this was ‘Merica!” Zhang dismembers opponents with punches. He’s like an MMA Jack the Ripper. They charge this guy with the desecration of a corpse after his fights. Zhang is a walking war crime, figuratively speaking. He engages in duels at two paces with Punisher Uzis on the feet. Every exchange, Zhang flips a coin like Harvey Dent. He’s willing to risk winning or losing on every exchange. 

And that’s why his fights are over before you close all the pop-up ads. Bruce Buffer spends more time in the cage than Zhang does. Zhang is a pure boxer who uses volume and aggression to overwhelm opponents. As is the case with most guys with Zhang’s style, his major malfunction is his defense. He has no D like John Wayne Bobbit. Young kids: “Who’s that?” Ask your parents. Zhang is defensive, like NATO is defensive. Zing! Zhang’s defense is like whoever guarded Kobe the night he dropped eighty-one. That’s why, win or lose, all of Zhang’s fights are Instagram reels. He drops nothing but bombs like a B-52 and doesn’t mind catching some flak along the way. Also, his record is a Who? Whose list. Yo! Hit that The Who “Who are you!” Whoooo are you? Who-who, who-who? Even with one ass cheek out the door, Anthony Smith is by far the best fighter Zhang has fought.   

Zhang will be the massive (-525) favorite, and Anthony Smith will be the (+375) live-ass dog. Yes, live-ass. Can Zhang fight longer than five minutes? I don’t know how good he is/isn’t. And I watched several of his fights. They’re too short to get a feel for his level. If Agent Smith can get out of the first round, I like his chances. I think Zhang will fade. Smith will dominate the grappling if he can get the fight to the mat. That's a lot of ifs, though. The play for Zhang is an early TKO/KO. I like playing Anthony Smith for a submission. Fantasy-wise, throw out all the numbers. Both guys are all-or-nothing. Someone will get got. And you know what? Don’t do it. For one final time... Don’t do it. For old-time's sake. Give me the fookin’ Lion Heart like Van Damme! Anthony Smith via arm-triangle, round two. Put that shit on wax! 

Props

Zhang: TKO/KO (-280) Sub (+900) Dec (+700) 

Smith: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+1000) Dec (+1100)

Winner: Anthony Smith | Method: Arm-Triangle Choke Rd.2

Giga Chikadze (+140) vs. David Onama (-165)

Giga: DK: $7.4k | Onama l: DK:$8.8k

Holy banger, Batman! If you’re a striking connoisseur, this scrap is a vintage, barrel-aged matchup that will have you sounding smug AF when describing its intricacies to casuals. If you’ve been fiending after a week without any fights, this one will provide the violent fix you need to stave off withdrawals. Nobody will brown your drawers like medium/high heat quicker than Giga Chikadze. He’s the man with a signature kick named after him, the Giga Kick. An instant pants-shitter if he lands it. And David Onama has won five of his last six, including three in a row after a show-stealing performance in San Diego against Nate Landwehr in 2022. That was three years ago!? Buckle up and keep your hands inside the vehicle at all times; this one will be a wild ride.   

One Night in San Diego: David Onama made a name for himself in a loss against Landwehr. Sometimes, a fighter’s best performance comes in a losing effort. Onama took a Brazzers beating that night in the San Diego Sports Arena. Nate Does Onama: It was a vintage beating. Bend, but don’t break. No matter how far down on the scoreboard Onama was in that fight, he never gave up. And he had Nate patrolling the mall on a pair of Healey’s in the closing seconds. This guy has more dog than Cruella de Vil’s coat.   

Onama has always reminded me of a Vegan Israel Adesanya. A low cholesterol Adesanya. His hands are so fast it looks like he never throws them. He just stands there, and you get lumped up like time-lapse footage. Even in slow motion, his hands are “fast as f**k, booooooy!” His hands are like lightning before thunder: Your head snaps back a second before you hear the punch connect. Yo! Hit that Imagine Dragons “Thunder!” Imagine Onama draggin' your ass around the cage like Achilles dragged Hector behind the chariot after landing a right hand. Onama wins fights with superior athletic ability. Watching him fight is like watching an American Gladiator fight Tom from Shipping & Receiving. It’s like a Pros vs. Joes matchup unless he gets taken down.   

David Onama turns into Larry David on the mat. Yo! Hit that Curb Your Enthusiasm theme song! He’s always getting into some shit on the mat. He’s no TLC scrub on the mat, but he often ends up in terrible positions and relies on power to escape rather than technique. The good news is that he won’t have to worry about Giga Chikadze taking him down. Chikadze couldn’t take down a flyer. Onama’s path to victory will be closing the distance and forcing Giga to fight within the pocket. At all costs, Onama has to avoid the midrange, where Giga can put his Giga Kick on repeat and blast away. If the fight stays at range, Giga will slowly pick apart Onama. Onama is 13-2 with seven TKO/KOs and four subs. Fantasy-wise, he will be the higher output fighter, averaging over five and a half SLpM compared to Giga’s just under four. If Onama leads the dance, his volume will decide close rounds.   

Giga Chikadze will kick the shit out of you and track muddy size ten tracks through the kitchen. Homie will tape your rear end shut and keep feeding you and feeding your kicks like a Method Man skit. The Giga kick is an upward-traveling hybrid Taekwondo/Muay Thai round kick that targets the liver from the southpaw stance. When you fight Giga, you have to bring a spare set of underoos in a Ziploc bag with your name written on it like you’re in preschool. They use your liver as an exhibit at the Bodies Museum when Giga gets done with you. Your liver has to go to AA and trips on the first step, talking about, “I’m not an alcoholic. My owner fought Giga Chikadze.” 

“Whoa, buddy. Overcoming denial is the first step on the path to recovery.” 

Giga ain’t your buddy, pal! Giga’s best weapon is pressure. This guy pressures opponents like the ocean floor. Giga applies more pressure than living check to check. He doesn’t have the most technical hands, but Giga can overwhelm opponents with extended combinations. His hands inundate you like a broken water main. As soon as the opening bell rings, Giga comes at you like an Alicia Keys remix, “This boy is on fire!” He comes out swinging from the Chandelier like Sia. You shine bright like a diamond from all the pressure this MF puts on you. Hit that Rihanna! He’s a Miley Cyrus Wrecking Ball in the opening minutes. Giga fights like he wasn’t promised a second round.   

Giga is 15-4 with noine TKO/KOs and one sub and has lost two of his last three bouts, including his most recent against “Hey” Arnold Allen. The key for Giga will be maintaining kicking range and avoiding a firefight in the pocket. His hands aren’t built for old-fashioned boxing exchanges. Giga needs space to operate optimally. Whoever can dictate the range will have the edge. Onama will be the (-175) favorite, and Giga will be the (+145) live dog. Without a finish, Giga will likely provide only moderate (50-60) significant strikes. And he will need some big moments to steal close rounds from the more active Onama. The play for both fighters is a decision. Neither fighter has ever been finished on the feet. I have to play chalk on this one. David Onama via decision. On wax.   

Props

Onama: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+800) Dec (+165) 

Giga: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+2000) Dec (+250)

Winner: David Onama | Method: Decision

Abus Magomedov (+120) vs. Michel Pereira (-140)

Abus: DK: $7.6k | Pereira: DK: $8.6k

This is a sleeper card. The Candyman is back. Abus Magomedov was an urban legend when he made his UFC debut and scored a noineteen second KO. He was immediately booked for a main event against Sean Strickland, and the Candyman promptly turned into a Candyass after gassing in the opening minutes. He followed that performance with an L to the leader of the Fighting Nerds, Ciao Borralho. But don’t call it a comeback. The Candyman has won two in a row and will be cruising up the rankings like he’s candy-painted if he can win three. But that won’t be easy. Michel Pereira is a reformed Cirque du Soliel trapeze artist-turned-MMA fighter. Not even the Kool-Aid Man could make a more dramatic entrance than Pereira did in his debut. He came out doing an Olympic floor routine. And you’d have to do some Simone Biles Olympic mental gymnastics to label this matchup anything other than an absolute banger. 

I should probably mention that Michel Pereira lost his debut against a grown man named Tristan. We all had a cousin named Tristan, who your parents made you play with at the family BBQs. People often credit Fluffy Hernandez with writing the blueprint like Jay-Z on how to beat Pereira. But it was Tristan Connelly who exposed Pereira’s ground game/gas tank. But Fluffy did write a NY Times best seller: How to Crack Michel Pereira’s ass, after a main event last October. Pereira rocks a respectable seventy-six percent takedown defense, but his major malfunction is scrambling back to his feet. This guy looks like Doc Holiday on his deathbed at the end of Tombstone when he gets taken down. He has those tuberculosis get-ups. He needs a nurse to bathe and feed him when he gets taken down. And that isn’t a good look going into a fight against Abus, who averages over three takedowns per fifteen minutes.   

But let's get to the other ill-shit. Pereira’s striking. Yo! Hit track six on Chronic 2001 “Xxplosive!” This guy is walking thermite on the feet. Everything he does is explosive. Fighting Pereira is like reading a Choose Your Own Adventure book: To get KO’d by a flying knee, turn to page 187. To get KO’d by a Super Man punch, turn page 69. To get stomped on by a backflip guard pass, turn to page 94. Pereira combines traditional Brazilian Muay Thai with Capoeira movements. His cadence reminds me of a B-Boy about to break. Pereira turns the Octagon into one big piece of cardboard. Homie will straight spin on his head and kick you in the face. His movements confuse and hypnotize you. Fook it. Hit that Biggie and Puff “Hypnotize!” Michel is sicker than your average on the feet. He can put Bettys in NY onto DKNY after landing a Flash Kick and taking home a 50k bonus.   

But none of that matters if Michel can’t remain upright. Abus will be the more traditional striker, but Pereira will be the more dangerous striker. Michel has to stay off the cage and force Abus to take him down in the center of the Octagon. Pereira was riding an eight-fight dub streak before Fluffy beat the man bun off him. Abus isn’t nearly as dangerous on the mat as Fluffy, though. He is more of a position-over-submission grappler. And this could turn into a battle of gas tanks. Against Sean Strickland, Abus turned into Avan. Then Acar. Then Abike. Then Apedestrian on his way to Aloss after gassing out in less than a round. This should be a two-round Ultimate Fighter scrap.  

Abus Magomedov needs his wrestling. It helps him manage his cardio. When he is forced to strictly stand and bang, he fades like Jada’s hairline. He has no governor on the feet. He redlines that shit like a rental car until he blows one of his four cylinders. His hands start sounding like a 2001 Civic with John Deer lawn mower exhaust. The warranty on his hands is void after the first round. Abus is built like a fit sixty-five-year-old. He looks like he rides those bikes that you peddle with your hands. If you can run further than a block or two, you can escape the Candyman. For while it lasts, Abus has an Ankalaev kicking game with excellent up the middle snap kicks, Sparta Kicks, and Charlie Brown kicks. And his hands are long and straight and gave Strickland some problems for a solid nointey seconds.  

The clearest path to victory for Abus is on the mat. Pereira is the higher output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM compared to Abus’ two and a half. Abus risks getting outworked on the feet if he can’t get Pereira to the mat. I thought Abus’ ground game would make him a slight favorite. Especially after what Fluffy did to Pereira. But Pereira is (-155) favorite, and Abus is the (+130) live-ass dog. What goes down doesn’t come up. Pereira will struggle to get back to his feet if Abus commits to wrestling. But how will he look if he can’t? Pereira’s diverse attacks will give him the edge on the feet. I like playing this one to go to a decision. Fantasy-wise, I’d try to avoid this fight. I think it will be a judicious striking affair. Michel Pereira via decision. On wax.  

Props

Pereira: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+800) Dec (+300)  

Abus: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+700) Dec (+400)

Winner: Michel Pereira | Method: Decision

Ikram Aliskerov (-550) vs. Andre Muniz (+390)

Aliskerov: DK: $9.7k | Muniz: DK: $6.5k

Spoiler Alert: One of this week's Twenty Twen-Twen Sleepers is this fight not actually happening. I don’t know how many times this fight has been rescheduled. I swear I’ve seen it on four cards now. Anywho, Andre Muniz is fresh off a De Niro in Heat robbery dub against The Iron Turtle, Jun Yong Park. This guy operates a counterfeit dub ring. He’s out here printing fake dubs like a Scarface montage. You know what I’m talking about. Hit that “Push It to the Limit!” My man launders dubs through twenty shell companies. Muniz Bankman-Fried. I’ll never forgive Muniz for that robbery. But I won’t demand an apology for a dub. Instead, I’ll live vicariously through Ikram Aliskerov and exact revenge. For Muniz’s sake, this should be a grappler vs. striker matchup. You can take one look at Ikram’s last name and know he can grapple. But Muniz is closer to a ground specialist than he is a striker. This is a dope fight to round out a solid main card. 

Ikram’s two career losses came against Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker. But he took the Whittaker fight on short notice after fighting a couple weeks before. But the question remains, how good is Ikram “Bod Crane” Aliskerov? He’s like the new kid in class: you don’t know whether to bully him or invite him to the cool kids’ table. He looks like a sprained Makhachev. Stubbed Islam. But their comparisons are only outward appearances. On the feet they couldn’t be more different. Ikram throws nothing but long trebuchet punches. I’m talking, launching cows over the castle walls type of trebuchet punches. “If you do not agree to my demands, then I shall...” Ikram slangs overhand geese, cats, and small appliances at you. He looks the part of an elite striker but the two times he jumped into the deep end against high-level strikers he sank to the bottom. Wendy Peppercorn had to jump in and save his ass. He looked like he didn’t wait the recommended thirty minutes after eating.   

The good news is Muniz won’t test Ikram much on the feet. But I don’t know anything about Ikram’s ground game, especially from his back. Muniz has decent takedowns but heavy top control. Muniz weighs on you like guilt. He’ll hold you down like depression. Ikrams official stats say he rocks a zero-percent takedown defense. That’s probably because no one has attempted a takedown against him. That will change against Muniz, at least in the first round. After that, Muniz will give up on his wrestling. Muniz is already itching to leave his wrestling/grappling at the altar. Homie gets cold feet, like when they stick out from the blankets in the middle of the night. Muniz gives up on his takedowns if they aren’t immediately successful. And he suffers from a slight case of Mackenzie Dern syndrome. Muniz has a basic power double and single, but that’s it. He won’t chain wrestle or level change like a D-1 wrestler.

Defensively, Muniz rocks a thirty-five percent takedown defense. Puff Daddy posters have better takedown defense than Andre Muniz. Ikram could be the one to establish top control. On the feet, Muniz can’t lead the dance. He has to stand on your feet like a daddy/daughter dance. Muniz relies on his opponents to close the distance and tries to land same-time counters. And he has escalator hand speed when they stall out, and you have to climb them like regular stairs. Muniz averages just under two SLpM compared to Ikram’s seven. Ikram will commit to combinations, while Muniz is one-and-done like the Cowboys in the playoffs. 

Aliskerov will be the (-650) favorite, and Muniz will be the (+470) flea-ridden dog. Those odds scare me. I don’t think this fight is that much of a mismatch. Ikram hasn’t been out of the first round in his last four fights, all under the UFC banner. He hasn’t been tested except when Bobby Knuckles slept him in under two minutes. I’d be surprised if Ikram walked through Muniz in under a round. But five of Muniz’s six career losses came via TKO/KO. The play for Ikram is just that, a TKO/KO. The play for Muniz is riding out top control for fifteen minutes on the way to a decision. Ikram Aliskerov via TKO, round two. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Aliskerov: TKO/KO (-160) Sub (+450) Dec (+400)  

Muniz: TKO/KO (+2200) Sub (+800) Dec (+1100)

Winner: Ikram Aliskerov | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Carlos Prates ($7.7k): Prates is the bigger finishing threat and the higher output striker in the main event. How real is Carlos Prates? We’re about to find out. Prates will be the risk-taker in this matchup and have a higher upside than his main event counterpart. I picked Garry to outpoint Prates, but Prates is the wild card. The Fighting Nerds have yet to lose a fight in the UFC, and they might have developed the equation to beat Garry. Part of that equation is forcing Garry into a real scrap, getting in his face, and attacking him with volume. Prates will have to cut the cage, trap Garry against the cage, and let his left-hand fly. This will be one of the rare times that Garry will be at a reach disadvantage. This is a more dangerous fight for Garry than it is for Prates. With five rounds to work with, I like Prates’ chances of putting up solid striking stats even if he doesn't get his hand raised. 

Abus Magomedov ($7.6k): Michel Pereira has a massive black hole in his game that Abus Magomedov can take advantage of: His ground game. Abus can dominate this fight with takedowns and top control. It may not be sexy, but it can get the job done. It doesn’t matter if you hit ten three-pointers or make thirty free throws; points are points. It doesn't matter how you score them. Abus’ two losses in the UFC came against elite competition, Sean Strickland and Ciao Borralho. It’s easy to remember those losses and write off Abus as a bust after the hype he received after his debut. This guy is still long as fook and more well-rounded than Michel Pereira. The downside for Abus is his output. If he can’t get this fight to the mat, he will likely get outworked on the feet. 

Nicolas Dalby ($7.3k): Dalby Digital is back. This guy only loses via Valero robberies and is one of the WKO’s least-kept secrets. Dalby has probably been a Twenty Twen-Twen Sleeper more than any other fighter. Dalby should be riding a five-fight dub streak but got robbed against the monster, Rinat Fakhretdinov. Dalby has a win over Gabriel Bonfim, a fight that Dalby was a (+350) dog. I remember that because I still own the house I bought in Malibu after dropping an Andy Jack on him. When it comes to UFC First Team All Dogs, Nicolas Dalby would be the captain. Dalby will out-dog your favorite dog. He has sneaky good kickboxing and excellent defensive grappling. He can even flip the script and take the fight to the mat if he’s behind on the striking. He will have to find a way to deal with Randy Brown’s range and get inside, but I like Dalby’s chances the longer the fight goes. Brown will fade. Dalby won’t.   

$6k Clearance Rack

Anthony Smith ($6.6k): This is Anthony Smith’s retirement fight and career fight number sixty. One thing will be certain: Anthony Smith won’t go out like a b**ch. Over the years, Smith has fought every monster to roam the light heavyweight division. He has been inside the cage with far better competition than Mingyang Zhang. Maybe Zhang is a future champion in waiting. But I don’t see it. In twenty-four career scraps, Zhang has only been out of the first round three times. He hasn’t seen a second round in fifteen straight fights. What does the second round Mingyang Zhang look like? If Smith can avoid a firefight in the first five minutes, he can get Zhang to the mat and exploit his ground game. The upside for Smith is a submission finish, and if Zhang gases, Smith can handle business on the feet, too. This fight is a guaranteed finish, and I think the odds are a little disrespectful. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Nicolas Dalby (+210): Oh, you thought you weren’t ‘gone see Nicolas Dalby? He’s the Osiris of this Twenty Twen shit! He’ll rub your as in the moonshine! I foreshadowed this pick earlier. Dalby is the definition of a sleeper. His likeness could be the Twenty Twen logo. Dalby has dubs over Daniel Rodriguez, Gabriel Bonfim, Muslim Salikhov, and Warrley Alves, and got robbed in his most recent bout against Rinat Fakhretdinov. I’m pretty sure Dalby was an underdog in every one of those fights. He rocks a 7-2 UFC record, and this fight should be closer than the odds suggest. The split decision prop bet is looking juicy for this one. I like Dalby’s chances of out-dogging Randy Brown. Likely, Dalby will drop the first round and have to mount a comeback. But what else is new? That’s what Dalby does. 

Abus Magomedov (+120): This is a value pick. I thought Abus would be the favorite after what Fluffy Hernandez did to Michel Pereira in October. I can’t imagine Pereira being a favorite against anyone who can take him down. Abus can certainly do that. If I were in Abus’ corner, we’d come out rocking a singlet and Asics MatFlex wrestling shoes. We wouldn’t spend any time on the feet other than setting up takedowns. If Abus wins this fight, it will likely be a grinding, boring fight. But that’s okay when you drop a Hamilton or Andy Jack on him.     

Anthony Smith (+375): These odds are wild. They're howling at the moon. Mingyang Zhang is a destructive force on the feet, especially in the first round. But after that, the entirety of his level map is shaded, unexplored. Who the fook knows what he will look like if this fight goes to a second round? Maybe that question will go unanswered. But I think Smith has the fight IQ to survive and advance. Also, Smith is a submission Banksy on the mat, and we have no clue what Zhang’s ground game looks like. Smith has more paths to victory, and Zhang will likely be fighting within a window before the clock strikes six minutes, his fight shorts turn into Daisy Dukes, and he’s left assed out like Tyson backstage.   

Pick ‘Em

Randy Brown (-250) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+210)  

Winner: Nicolas Dalby 

Method: Decision 

Matt Schnell (-210) vs. Jimmy Flick (+175)  

Winner: Matt Schnell 

Method: Decision 

Evan Elder (-200) vs. Gauge Young (+170)  

Winner: Evan Elder 

Method: Decision 

Chris Gutierrez (-140) vs. John Castaneda (+115) 

Winner: John Castaneda 

Method: Decision 

Da’Mon Blackshear (-480) vs. Alatangheili (+350) 

Winner: Da’Mon Blackshear 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Malcolm Wellmaker (-115) vs. Cameron Saaimon (-105) 

Winner: Malcolm Wellmaker 

Method: Decision 

Jaqueline Amorim (-850) vs. Polyana Viana (+550) 

Winner: Jaqueline Amorim 

Method: Armbar Rd.2 

Timothy Cuamba (+115) vs. Roberto Romero (-135) 

Winner: Roberto Romero 

Method: Decision 

Chelsea Chandler (+250) vs. Joselyn Edwards (-300) 

Winner: Joselyn Edwards 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.