Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Brandon Royval (+215) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-260)

Royval: DK: $7.2k | Taira: DK:$9k

About last night...  

Hit that Monty Python!  

“Look, you stupid bastard. You got no arms left.” 

“Yes I have.” 

“Look!” 

“It’s just a flesh wound.” 

Khalil Rountree’s face was practically falling off. He looked like they forgot to put Castor Troy’s implanted face on and just left him hanging without one. He looked like the exorcist girl after the third round. But that didn’t stop Tong Po from throwing bombs until the bitter end. Missing two arms, he kept kicking Pereira, refusing to concede the fight. Missing both arms and a leg, he continued headbutting Pereira until Pereira finally hacked off his remaining leg. Tong Po wouldn’t die - wouldn’t go away until he was a limbless stump just sitting there like Humpty Dumpty. Now hit that 2Pac “Bury Me a G!” Khalil Rountree earned his general stripes last Saturday night and should be honored with a twenty-one-gun salute. What a fookin’ savage!   

Impossible is any main event following Tong Po vs. Alex Pereira. How do you follow that? You don’t. But Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira is still a dope little banger, taking warmup hacks in the on-deck circle. Brandon Royval's fights look like cartoon dust clouds with limbs and random appliances and farm animals tumbling about. And Tatsuro Taira represents a new breed of exciting grapplers. I know, “exciting grapplers” sounds like an oxymoron. But trust me, this guy is all offense on the mat. I’m talking the Greatest Show on Turf – the 2007 Patriots – the 1998 MLB season. Chicks dig the submissions. Watching his fights feels like watching surveillance camera footage. They’re seedy, and you know only foul shit happens when you’re watching surveillance video. At its core, this is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. A dub for Royval keeps him in the title hunt, and a dub for Taira thrusts him into it like “Boom-Pow Surprise!”   

“Crown” Royval fights like an inebriated Wild West gunslinger with the marksmanship of Cheddar Bob – of Plaxico Burress in the club. He has the marksmanship of Dick Cheney. Didn’t he shoot his homie in the face? Yeah. Anybody can get it when Brandon Royval starts slangin’ hands and feets. Even his homies. He’s like a Civil War hand-cranked Gatling gun when he starts spraying fists all over the Octagon. Homie licks shots at Big Ben like he has time to kill. Royval has those E.Honda hands. Ash and the Evil Dead hands; they have a mind of their own. Alec Baldwin hands – never shooting blanks. Yep, them Brandon Lee The Crow hands. His hands are like the Freak on a Leash bullet. Yo! Hit that Korn! Life’s always gotta be messing with Brandon Royval. He once had the belt within grasp but time ran out. He came up short against Alexandre Pantoja after being taken down eight times.   

Which is a bad look going into a scrap with a guy who averages two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes and has seven career submissions. It’s also a bad look when you rock a forty percent career takedown percentage like Oscar De La Hoya rocking lingerie for a Fredrick’s of Hollywood catalog shoot. Royval likes his potatoes baked and his stakes high when he exchanges. He bets the rent money on every exchange, which is a gift and a curse. He often runs into takedowns, much like Kevin Holland. But he wouldn’t be “Crown” Royval without his trademark recklessness. He throws combinations like high school lockers, and getting taken down comes with the territory. Royval will likely end up on his back early and often, but the key will be not giving up his back when fighting to get back to his feet. The good news is he survived Pantoja’s back mount. But Taira’s back mount is different.   

Go back and watch Taira’s last fight against Alex Perez. Perez gave Taira all kinds of problems on the feet, but as soon as the fight touched the mat, it was a wrap. Taira took Perez’s back like he was climbing a fence. Once he had Perez’s back, he wrenched on Perez back until Perez’s knee blew out. It looked like Taira was carjacking Perez. He put Perez on blocks and stole his catalytic converter. This kid possesses the holy trinity of grappling: Position, damage, and submissions. He weathers you on the mat – leaves you rusted out like the jalopy in your grandpappy’s front yard. You wear Taira like a hand-me-down birthday suit. A what? Taira has that Diddy top control. You need an FBI raid to get him off you. This guy plants you like petunias and harvests you a couple months later. He Johnny Appleseeds you and uses Alex Perez as a scarecrow to keep the crows away. But does he have the striking to match? 

Before having his knee blown to pieces, Alex Perez exposed Taira’s striking like AB in the shallow end. Taira is no crumb bum on the feet. Not by any means. But he has holes. He has long, crisp hands with no degree of curve in his punches and is solid at range. But like Bill Clinton hitting the doobie, he doesn’t inhale the smoke in the pocket. Taira is a sniper from the outside but a patsy in the pocket. He gets Jack Ruby’d in the pocket. Perez consistently beat Taira to the punch, extending combinations in the pocket, and overall, got the better of the striking in the first round. The good news is Royval isn’t much of a pocket striker. He likes to stay at range and pepper you with potshots. I’d give Royval only a slight edge in the striking only because he has been in the cage and exchanged hands with some of the best fighters in the division, and this will be Taira’s toughest opponent to date.   

The numbers: Taira is 16-0 with five TKO/KOs and seven subs and averages three and a half SLpM to Royval’s four and a half. Royval is 16-7 with four TKO/KOs and noine subs. Keep an eye on Royval’s guillotine. He finished Kai-Kara France and Matt Schnell with it. Gillies can be used as submissions and for takedown defense, forcing the opponent to abandon the takedown to defend the choke.  

Taira is the (-225) favorite, and Royval is the (+185) live-ass dog. The big fight experience factor will be in Royval’s favor. He also pushes a frenetic pace that Taira isn’t used to. There is also the question of if Taira can grapple/wrestle for twenty-five minutes. Royval was taken down eight times and was still pushing the pace and close to finishing Pantoja in the fifth round of their title fight. But it will be nearly impossible not to give up his back before he can take advantage of his five-round cardio. In each of his last bouts (five-rounders), Royval was well over the one hundred significant strikes mark, including one hundred forty-five against Brandon Moreno. He can put up Fantasy points even in a loss.   

Alex Pereira (Amen) mercifully ended the main event losing streak last week. That card was a clusterf**k of terrible decisions, and I felt lucky to get out of there at .500 with a main event dub. The Utah Commission had Stevie Wonder, Helen Keller, and Homer (the poet, not Simpson) as judges. Jessica Peña sent me the new Fall menu for her three-star Michelin restaurant. Thanks, judges. This week’s main event is a toss-up. Fook the odds. But at the end of the day - when it’s all said and done - when the dust settles, I don’t know if Royval can stay upright enough. Tatsuro Taira via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Royval: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+1600) Dec (+450) 

Taira: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+135) Dec (+275)

Winner: Tatsuro Taira | Method: Decision

The Iron Turtle (-180) vs. Brad Tavares (+160)

Tuttle: DK: $8.5k | Tavares: DK: $7.7k

I like tuttles. You know what time it is! The Iron Turtle is back after a classic De Niro in Heat robbery. I told him not to stop at that Valero. Told him to fill up in Primm. Told him to pee in the bushes – don't use the restrooms. But they don’t hear me, though – DMX voice. Takedowns without damage and holding against the fence without damage shouldn’t win fights. If takedowns score points, so should stuffing a takedown. But I digress. On to the new shit. The good news for the Iron Turtle is that this is a very winnable fight. I love Brad Tavares, but I think he’s down to the last sip left in the fridge so no one has to throw the carton away because there’s no room in the trashcan because no one wants to take out the trash, and banana peels are stapled to the sides and shit. His low-tread tire warning light just came on. Tavares will go from fighting Brazilian Deebo to the Iron Turtle, two of my favorite current fighters. And I’m not sure which is a worse matchup for him. 

When I think about Tavares’s style, the color beige comes to mind. IDK. I see beige. Something plain. That has always been the biggest knock against Tavares. When he was a kid, he had Keds instead of Airwalks. Filas instead of Reeboks. He rocked BUFU instead of FUBU in high school. You were eating Fruit Loops, and he was eating Tootie Fruities. Tavares is on that generic type-shit. He doesn’t have a specialty or specific attribute/technique that scares you. It’s like he doesn’t want to stand out; he wants to sit in. But generic can get you pretty far. Tavares has shared the Octagon with four UFC Champions. He’s like your uncle telling Nam stories. This guy has war stories. Yo! Hit that 2Pac “Tradin’ War Stories!” Tavares has done more tours of duty than Rambo. When it comes to the Octagon, Tavares has earned his general’s stripes. General Tavares. Salute this man! 

Tavares still remains a tough out because he doesn’t beat himself. He takes care of the ball, and he has that flag-on-the-moon takedown defense. But he's down to the shake at the bottom of the nug jug. He can stand and trade, but he’s not much of a finishing threat. He hasn’t finished a fight since 2018. Tavares does just enough to stay competitive, but he’s lost three of his last four, and that one dub was against Jimmy Valmer, aka Chris Weidman. I will say this: I thought he beat Dricus Du Plessis in 2022. Tavares is 20-9 with five TKO/KOs and two subs and averages just under three and a half SLpM to the Turtle’s four and a half. Tavares has to keep this standing at all costs and take his chances on the feet. The only play for Tavares is a decision. 

My stable of favorite fighters is a Motley Crue. And Jun Yong Park is the Tommy Lee of that bish, hammering out drum solos from the top position until the ref can’t headbang any longer and is forced to step in. The Iron Turtle is a power top. He dribbles your head off the canvas, looking like Hotsauce in the Octagon. He’s out here doing the Allen Iverson crossover with ya dome. Yo! Hit that Ice Cube “It Was a Good Day!” The Iron Turtle might fook around and get a triple-double with ya dome. He tenderizes you like veal cutlets from the top position with vicious elbows and hammerfists. He aerates you – puts divots in you like shitty golfers. And he has a special weapon from any position. He has guillotines on some Raekwon the Chef Only Built 4 Cuban Linx type-ish. He uses them to submit and bully you, and he likes to snatch it from the top position after he has cracked your ass for a little while. No Diddy.   

And he’s pretty nifty on the feet, too. The Iron Turtle’s jab sneaks up on ya like birthdays after twenty-noine. He has tight, technical boxing with subtle slips and rips, and he can win this fight standing. But his easiest path to victory will be on the mat. Tavares rocks an eighty-one percent takedown defense. That’s that JRE takedown defense. But The Turtle can soften Tavares up on the feet, and he only needs to get Tavares down once to finish him. The Turtle is 17-6 with five TKO/KOs and six subs and has won four of his last five. But he should be riding a five-fight dub streak. He was robbed in his most recent bout against Andre Muniz. 

The Iron Turtle will be the (-170) favorite, and Tavares will be the (+140) dog. I’m surprised the Turtle isn’t a bigger favorite. Maybe I’m just biased, but I think The Turtle wins this fight wherever it goes, especially if he can get it to the mat. But that is far from a given. Tavares’s fight IQ is in the one-twenties, and he’s hard to get down. The bigger finishing threat is The Iron Turtle. Tavares has never been submitted, but he has been TKO/KO’d five times. Also, his last two losses came via TKO. If this stays standing, Tavares will be around the seventy significant strikes range. In twenty-three career UFC bouts, Tavares has only gone over the one hundred strikes landed mark once, and that was in 2013. You already know I’m riding dirty with my man, The Iron Tuttle. Jun Yong Park via TKO, round three. On wax.   

Props

Park: TKO/KO (+340) Sub (+800) Dec (+140) 

Tavares: TKO/KO (+750) Sub (+2500) Dec (+230)

Winner: Jun Yong Park | Method: TKO Rd.3

Grant Dawson (-460) vs. Rafa Garcia (+350)

Dawson: DK: $9.5k | Garcia: DK:$6.7k

Grant Dawson recently escaped King Geen’s Gravel Pit after being held captive on some Buffalo Bill type-ish. King KO’d Grant quicker than a Pop-Tart will burn in the toaster. Joe Solecki played the role of Charles Ramsey, rescuing Grant from his pit of despair. Grant rebounded from his first UFC loss with a three-round grappling master class over Solecki and now draws the Little Homie That Could, Rafa Garcia. Hit that 2Pac “Little Homie!” Rafa Garcia is a little underrated gangster, C-walking across the Octagon like WC across the stage in a pair of Chucks with phat laces. Get the Neosporin ready because Rafa will undoubtedly suffer from third-degree mat burns after spending fifteen minutes fighting to get off his back. But don’t sleep on Rafa; he is no crumb bum on the mat and could turn this into an ugly scrap.   

Grant Dawson’s top control is heavier than guilt. When he is on top of you, it’s like being Saran wrapped to the mat – it's like when your parents tucked you into bed too tight, and you can’t do shit but scream when the Diddy crawls out from under the bed. Diddy is the new Candyman. “You better eat your peas or Diddy will get you...” WTF does that have to do with Grant Dawson? Grant Dawson pins you to the mat like a fookin’ butterfly collection. His top pressure is like being mounted by Lizzo. You need a fookin’ crane to get him off you. And if he takes your back, forgettaboutit. Dawson has an Aljo-like affinity for taking the back and will ride out entire rounds from the position while Patiently Waiting like 50 and Em for a submission opportunity to present itself.  

But Dawson has a major malfunction, his striking. He has Lego people hands. Homie has arthritic hands; he can barely make a fist. Bust out the Coppertone fingerless biker gloves. Dawson barely lasted thirty seconds on the feet with King Green. They use Grant Dawson’s hands at day spas and put little cucumbers over your eyes to go along with your mud mask. I buy my wife a Grant Dawson day spa package every year for Valentine’s Day. Best believe if Rafa Garcia can survive early and defend takedowns late, he will have a big advantage on the feet. Dawson is one-hunnid percent dependent on his wrestling to win fights. Dawson is 17-2 with four TKO/KOs and thirteen subs. He also averages three SLpM and three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes.  

Rafa Garcia is a blue-collar grinder, racking up unapproved OT. His style looks like he’s scrapping on his state-mandated ten-minute break. He looks like he put in that yard work, and I ain’t talking raking leaves. His hands are considered illegal contraband; they’re sneaky and deadly. He has boxcutter hands, and he’ll slice you up like he’s fighting for commissary. If you want to know what Rafa is all about, go watch his fight against Maheshate. Rafa was spraying blood like the sprinklers in the Blade club scene. His corner had to give him transfusions between rounds to keep him alive. Overall, this dude is a dog - the dog that bit Craig’s Dad’s ass. You need a bag of Beggin’ strips to get this guy off you.  

The striking edge will clearly be in Garcia’s favor, but he relies on operating within close quarters within the pocket. Which is where he will be susceptible to takedowns. Rafa rocks an eighty percent takedown defense, but he hasn’t fought a specialist like Grant Dawson. The key for Rafa will be getting back to his feet. And if Grant fades late, as he did in the third round (a 10-8 round) against Ricky Glenn, Rafa can wrestle too and averages three and a half takedowns. He can put Dawson on his back, where Dawson tends to look like half the fighter than when he is in the top position. This will be a classic survive-and-advance fight for Rafa; he will have to make up a lot of ground late. But he will be the higher output striker, averaging just over four SLpM. Rafa is 16-3 with one TKO/KO and eight subs.  

Dawson will be the heavy (-395) favorite, and Rafa will be the (+310) mangy-ass dog. Rafa will have to have some Dak late-game magic to pull this one off. He will likely spend significant minutes on his back. And that’s time spent not scoring points. It’s hard scoring Fantasy points against Grant Dawson because he stifles your offense by making you defend takedowns for the full fifteen minutes. You can only hope he gasses as he did against Ricky Glenn. But I don’t see that happening this time. Rafa has never been finished, but he has never faced a submission Michelangelo like Grant Dawson. I like playing Dawson for a late submission. Rafa will have to finish this fight to win it. A decision heavily favors Dawson’s top control. Grant Dawson via rear-naked choke, round three. Put it on wax.  

Props

Dawson: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+350) Dec (-150) 

Garcia: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+1800 Dec (+600)

Winner: Grant Dawson | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Daniel Rodriguez (-220) vs. Alex Morono (+220)

D-Rod: DK: $8.9k | Morono: DK: $7.3k

I used to want to fight Alex Morono. Not out of malice or in retribution for some afront. But because I thought I could hang for a little while before he choked me out or slept me. But then I saw him dominate “The Ponz” Santiago Ponzinibio for nearly three rounds, and I started ducking him like little people at a turnstile. But-but then he went and lost to Niko Price in his most recent bout, and I’m calling for the fight again. 2022 Morono smokes me, but 2024 Morono better get the fight to the mat ASAP. I think Morono has been through too many wars in the last two years and lost some of his magic. And the UFC loves feeding him to savages. Enter Daniel Rodriguez. D-Rod is another heathen to add to the list of Joaquin Buckley’s Morono has fought recently. This fight will look like Alex Morono got off on the wrong exit and found himself in a neighborhood with pairs of Chucks tied together and hanging from the powerlines.   

Alex Morono was once an undercover savage. He used to wear a wire like Jose Altuve. But then someone sniffed out the Big P**sy in the Octagon. His dweeb-ish looks (I say that respectfully) gave him an edge. He has the least imposing stature inside the Octagon ever. Ever ever. There is no one less scary-looking than Alex Morono. But then he starts kicking your ass. His striking is odd, to say the least. He stays on his toes like he’s walking through a Home Depot parking lot. Dare I say, Alex Morono flutters around the cage. Like he got sprinkled with some pixie dust. Hit that E-40 “Sprinkle Me!’ And he has Brady awareness in the pocket; he keeps his eyes downfield and goes through his progressions when he’s under fire. He’s deceptively quick and has a special move, the Three SToOgEs twelve-to-six overhand bonk. It’s an overhand ax chop, and there is no way to defend it other than making it miss. Oh, and he is also a Gilly specialist like Dustin Poirier wants to be soooo badly.  

Morono’s path to victory is using his underrated grappling to put D-Rod on his back. D-Rod has no ground game like he lives in the clouds. Homie decomposes on the mat. If Morono gets D-Rod to the mat, he won’t likely get back up. D-Rod rocks a fifty-six percent takedown defense, which can only be topped by Morono’s forty-eight percent. But D-Rod has no takedowns. Morono does. For his career, Morono is 24-10 with six TKO/KOs and seven subs. Morono can surpass one hundred significant strikes, but more often than not, he is moderate at best, hovering around forty to sixty.   

Hit that ODB “Dog Shit!” D-Rod ain’t the first dog that shitted on ya lawn! Daniel Rodriguez is that animal control type of dog. D-Rod is what happens when you don’t listen to Bob Barker and spay and neuter your dog to help reduce the stray population. DMX adlibs play in the background during D-Rod scraps. “Grrr... Arf! Arf!” D-rod is the dog on the cover of Grand Champ. He reminds me of a South-Central Chris Leben. My OG’s know Chris Leben. D-Rod is Chris Leben from another down-ass vata. He initiates people in the cage, shambling around and unloading left hands Willy-Nilly. D-Rod's left hand sprays like a water hose – like he can’t handle the kick of his punches and just licks off strays all over the place. My man averages nearly seven and a half LHpM (left hands per minute). D-Rod lost his last fight to Kelvin Gastelum but still landed one hundred twenty-seven significant strikes while being taken down four times.   

The key for D-Rod will be staying upright and using volume on the feet. He’s the higher-output striker and has landed over one hundred significant strikes five times. He has to make this a brawl and not let Morono bounce around and pick his shots. D-Rod will be the (-200) favorite, and Morono will be the (+165) live-ass dog. Not only can he strike with D-Rod, but he can mix things up on the mat. D-Rod has solid get-ups, so Morono will have to stay committed to his wrestling if he chooses that path. The play for both guys is a decision. Morono’s chin is suspect, like a Diddy guest list, so I would give D-Rod a slightly better chance of scoring a finish. But both are tough and generally hard to put away. This is a toss-up in my book. Daniel Rodriguez via decision. On wax.   

Props

D-Rod: TKO/KO (+240) Sub (+1000) Dec (+160)  

Morono: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+1200) Dec (+280)

Winner: Daniel Rodriguez | Method: Decision

Abdul Alhassan (-170) vs. Josh Fremd (+145)

Alhasssan: DK: $8.4k | Fremd: DK:$7.8k

You got a Fremd in me. You got a Fremd in me. Hit that Toy Story shit! Glow-up Shaggy from Scooby Doo is back. You can call Josh Fremd Shaggy 2 Chokes. Fook it! Hit that Shaggy “It wasn’t me!” And if someone got their ass kicked, it wasn’t Josh Fremd. This fight is like when you made your G.I. Joe's fight your Ninja Turtles. This is a complete physical physique mismatch. Abdul Razak Alhassan is built like Bebop. Alhassan would be the action figure draft number-one overall pick. Jimmy gave up a Pogs double slammer, an Ecto Cooler, and a Ren & Stimpy slap band to move up three spots to draft Alhassan. If Josh Fremd is smart, this will be a classic grappler vs. striker matchup.   

Josh Fremd works at a recycling mill crushing cans. He shotguns crumb bums like frat boys do PBRs. Fremd tends to beat mid-fighters and lose to good ones. The hardest part of this fight will be deciding which category Alhassan fits into. Fremd has fought stiff competition, and this is another tough matchup for him. Fremd has a decent top-ground game, but he’s a prude from his back. He just lays there looking stoic until the ref in the corner calls for some action. In his most recent bout against Andre Petroski, Fremd looked like he was on an autopsy table for fifteen minutes. Bet Alhassan won’t Bobby Boucher your ass real quick, Josh. Fremd has to be first getting this fight to the mat.   

When I see Fremd’s striking, I catch whiffs of Chris Weidman. Fremd looks like you left Chris Weidman in the crisper too long, and he started to wilt. Overall, Fremd’s style took the extra out of extraordinary. He’s not great at anything, and he’s just okay at everything. That's not to say he can’t win this fight by putting Alhassan on his back. But that will be a tough task for fifteen minutes while avoiding Alhassan’s nuclear strikes. Fremd is 11-6 for his career with four TKO/KOs and four subs. But Fremd is 2-4 in the UFC and is riding a two-fight skid. Fantasy-wise, you might be better off picking me. Fremd averages two and a half SLpM and a half takedown.   

Abdul Razak Alhassan has traps like wings. They’re like extra limbs. He looks like he’s carrying the Rockies on his back. His back is the Coors Light logo. His traps are classified as a K-1 mountain. MFs die every year trying to summit Alhassan’s traps. Alhassan cracked major ass in his last fight against Cody Brundage but still managed to secure an L. He donkey-elbowed Brundage in the back of the head while wildin’ out, trying to finish Brundage. It looked like leaked Diddy footage. It looked like Pac stomping out that dude in the MGM lobby. But he got DQ’d. Hit that Denny Green! “We let ‘him off the hook! Crown Cody Brundage!” Nobody has more DQ dubs than Cody Brundage.  

This guy, Alhassan, fights like you left the burner on; all he needs is a spark. Then... BOOM! He’s a lit fuse connected to Acme TNT. You see comic strip sound effects flashing all over the place when he starts throwing hands: BLAM! WHAAM! KAZAAM! BAROOM! This dude’s power is cartoonish. What he lacks in technique, he more than makes up for in pure power and brief moments of aggression. The key for Alhassan will be keeping a consistent, coherent pace. He can power-double Fremd to the mat and win rounds. Or he can keep the fight standing and send Fremd’s head into the upper deck – a fookin’ Ohtani bomb! Alhassan is 12-6, with all wins coming via TKO/KO. You can’t argue with that. You already know what Alhassan’s Fantasy value is.   

But Alhassan’s downside is his fifty percent takedown defense, only to be outdone by Fremd’s thirty percent. This should be a dub for Alhassan unless he slips on a Mario Cart banana and ends up on his back. He will be the (-155) favorite, and Fremd will be the (+130) stray dog. I thought Alhassan would be a bigger favorite, but it’s hard to trust him. He has remedial fight IQ at times and can gas at any moment. He’s far from a sure thing. The play for Fremd is riding out top control on the way to a decision. But I have to roll with BeBop. Abdul Razak Alhassan via TKO, round two. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Alhassan: TKO/KO (-110) Sub (+1800) Dec (+700)  

Fremd: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+550) Dec (+300)

Winner: Abdul Alhasssan | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Lucas Rocha ($7.4k): This might be the weakest Value Menu in a long time. This is like if McDonald’s removed apple pies and cheeseburgers from the Value Menu. But I still managed to find an undercover savage. Lucas Rocha reminds me of a reboot BJ Penn. Bj Penn before he got KO’d outside of an Applebee’s. I also see shades of Max Holloway in Rocha. This kid has takedown defense like he has eight legs. That arachnid takedown defense. You can get him to the mat, but good luck keeping him there. And on the feet, he’s fast and explosive. This kid is 17-1 with ten TKO/KOs and four subs and will be up against a very mid-wrestler striker in Clayton Carpenter. I don’t know how Carpenter is a (-200) favorite, but Rocha might be one of the only fighters on the value menu who can steal the fight with a finish.   

 Brandon Royval ($7.2k): Royval’s takedown defense isn’t great, but he never accepts the position and consistently fights to get back to his feet. He landed over one hunnid significant strikes against Alexandre Pantoja even after being taken down eight times. That means Royval got back to his feet at least seven times. On the feet, Royval can create problems for Tatsuro Taira. Taira looks the part of a formidable striker, but he can get got, especially at the top of the division. Alex Perez showed us that Taira isn’t quite built for a firefight on the feet. Royval will create chaos every second he isn’t on his back and can drop a Fantasy triple-double even in a loss, barring a quick Taira submission. Royval has only been submitted once (to Pantoja) but showed improved sub-defense in his second fight with Pantoja. 

Brad Tavares ($7.7k): You will be hard-pressed to find a finish on the value menu this week. Tavares certainly won't have much of a shot at scoring one, as he hasn't finished a fight since 2018. But he has Stonehenge takedown defense, which will help him keep the fight standing against the Iron Turtle. The Turtle has sleeper boxing, but he is far from a world-beater on the feet. Tavares can stand and trade with him and land respectable significant strikes. He represents a more reliable Fantasy scoring option. 

$6k Bathroom Clearance Rack

Rafa Garcia ($6.7k): The third round will be Rafa’s time to shine. He will likely give up the first two rounds almost entirely on his back. But I have seen Grant Dawson fade late in fights. Even Olympic wrestlers can’t wrestle for fifteen minutes straight. It may be the most difficult path to take in MMA. But Dawson has no other option because he’s a silhouette at the end of a firing range on the feet. IF (big if) Rafa can survive into the third round and stuff a single takedown, he can change the tide of the fight real quick on the feet. He isn’t an elite striker but juxtaposed to Dawson’s striking, Rafa is Alex Fookin’ Pereira. But Rafa will need a finish to win and will be an all-or-nothing pick if you find yourself digging through the Clearance crates.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Lucas Rocha (+170): I like this dude. He’s a little dexterous/agile muhf**ker, similar to Demetrius Johnson. I don’t think Clayton Carpenter can lay on him for fifteen minutes. And if Rocha can stuff a couple takedows, Carpenter will concede a kickboxing match where Rocha will have a significant speed advantage. This will be Rocha’s debut, but he had a highlight reel standing-knee KO on the Contender Series. He spent the entire first round defending takedowns, then ended the fight with a counter knee when his opponent level changed. This kid is crafty and processes information during a fight, taking notes and making reads. Also, Rocha is a finisher and will provide a good chance to flip the Fantasy script in the first fight of the night.   

Pat Sabatini (+135): The Travelocity lawn gnome is back. Pat Sabatini is the Wee Man of MMA, but don’t let that fool you. Sabatini is a grappling/submission specialist facing a dominant wrestler in Jonathan Pearce. Pearce is susceptible to getting his neck snatched and is coming in off back-to-back losses, including a submission loss to Joanderson Brito, a fight in which Pearce was dominating on the mat before he got caught in a Ninja Choke (guillotine variation). Sabatini is more than capable of submitting Pearce, who will have no other option than engaging Sabatini in his area of expertise on the mat. Both fighters are excellent offensive wrestlers but poor defensively. Whoever gets the top position first could run away with it. And it’s 50/50 if that will be Sabatini.   

Brandon Royval (+215): What more can I say about “Crown” Royval? My man is a Stephen King Firestarter in the cage. He will give up a lot of control time, but he will throw hands nonstop every second he is upright. Can Taira handle Royval’s pace for twenty-five minutes? Dogs have had tons of success lately in main events except last week. And main events almost always provide valuable dogs. Royval can create a frantic pace, scrambling to his feet, striking on the breaks, and staying at range, pumping his long-range strikes. This is a toss-up in my book, and there is a ton of straight-up value in Royval.   

Pick ‘Em

Chidi Njokuani (-180) vs. Jared Gooden (+155)  

Winner: Chidi Njokuani 

Method: Decision 

C.J. Vergara (+275) vs. Ramazonbek Temirov (-350)  

Winner: Ramazonbek Temirov 

Method: Decision 

Jonathan Pearce (-155) vs. Pat Sabatini (+135) 

Winner: Jonathan Pearce 

Method: Decision 

Themba Gorimbo (-350) vs. Niko Price (+275) 

Winner: Themba Gorimbo 

Method: Decision 

Dan Argueta (+150) vs. Cody Haddon (-175) 

Winner: Cody Haddon 

Method: Decision 

Clay Carpenter (-200) vs. Lucas Rocha (+170) 

Winner: Lucas Rocha 

Method: TKO Rd.3 

Julia Polastri (-130) vs. Cory McKenna (+110) 

Winner: Julia Polastri 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.