Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Cory Sandhagen (-510) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+370)

Sandhagen: DK: $9.4k | Figgy: DK:$6.8k

You can call Cory Sandhagen a dreamer. It would be appropriate for a man whose head lives in a two-tier cumulonimbus cloud twenty-thousand feet in the sky, its only neighbors, the occasional passenger jets that pass by from time to time. Some people wave enthusiastically. But most just stare in disbelief. Gone are the humble days of wispy, low atmosphere stratus clouds when Cory’s only dream was becoming a UFC Champion. Like the Jeffersons, Cory’s head moved on up to loftier accommodations when he discovered his true calling while attending a double-A minor league baseball game in Madison, Alabama. During the seventh-inning stretch, the PA announced an open casting for Sprocket, the Rocket City Trash Pandas’ mascot. The next game, Cory was shooting hotdogs into the crowd with an airsoft rocket launcher. It wasn’t long before he had his eyes set on a deluxe formation of two hundred fifty thousand elevation Cirrus clouds and becoming the San Diego Swinging Friar. Or maybe a penthouse suite on the top floor of a Cumulonimbus Incus formation, becoming the Phillie Phanatic.   

As Aerosmith would say, Dream On. From one dreamer to another: Dream on Cory. Dream on. This one is dedicated to all the dreamers out there. Hit that Lupe Fiasco and Jill Scott “Daydreamin’!” Daydream, I fell asleep beneath the flowers. For a couple of hours. On a beautiful day. And I dreamed of the return of the vintage Sandman. The striking Sandman. Don’t let the fact that Cory Sandhagen looks like every mascot ever unmasked by a belligerent drunken fan, tripping on the home stretch in a foot race against a giant wiener, or doxed by a jealous cross-town mascot rival fool you. The Sandman was once one of (if not THE) best strikers in the division. He is an unofficial member of the Fighting Nerds. In his early UFC days, Sandhagen developed the Theory of Striking Relativity: A Cory Sandhagen in motion stays in motion until acted upon by a Ref at the end of a round. 

It’s been a while since we saw the striking Sandhagen. He had to rely heavily on his striking in his most recent bout against Umar. But the takedown threat hindered his classic stance-switching footwork. When Sandhagen was in his striking prime, he moved like a lava lamp – like Mercury at room temperature. He flowed like liquid around the cage, morphing between different styles from one round to the next. The Sandman would come out in a blade Karate style in one round, then a squared wrestling/boxing stance in another. Regardless of style, Sandhagen was a master at varying his cadences/tempos and degrees of power to elicit predictable reactions that he would counter. That’s called setting traps. The Sandman would set traps like the Bene Geserit - like the Vietcong. But in recent years, Sandhagen has relied more on his wrestling/grappling.   

You can say Sandhagen had a fighter mid-career crisis. Sandy started dating nineteen-year-olds and wearing murses that matched his monochrome rompers. Warning: Never go full Shannon Sharpe. Suddenly, Cory reinvented himself into a D-1 college wrestler, and his striking had to sit on the Mexican blanket in the back. But I have to say, he became a pretty good wrestler/grappler. The problem is, he’ll never out-wrestle/grapple the top of the division. The guys he has already lost to, like Petr Yan and Umar. He sure as hell can’t out-wrestle the Champ, Merab. Deiveson Figueiredo provides a good opportunity for Sandhagen to get back on his feet. He can out-strike Figgy. But I know he won’t. It’s a little too dangerous. The clearest path to victory against Figgy is putting him on his back. Sandhagen will use his striking only as a means to make reads and set up level changes. I don’t blame him. You play to win the fight. But it won’t help him in the long run.   

Deiveson Figueiredo’s style took a similar left turn at Albuquerque. Like Michael Jordan took two years off to play baseball, Figgy took three fights off to wrestle. These two might come out and take turns stuffing each other’s takedowns. When Figgy moved up to bantamweight, he lost faith in his hands like the classic movie trope: A Father’s fall from faith. Figueiredo is like Harvey Keitel in From Dusk Till Dawn. Yo! Hit that George Michaels “Faith!” Cuz you gotta faith-ah, faith-ah, faith-ah! Figgy is a solid grappler, but only when he can dictate the top position. When he’s on his back, it looks like a business transaction. He has no get-ups. Figgy has get-ups like Kanye’s mom back in the day. 

“What’s going on in there?” 

“Nothing.” 

“Don't make me come in there!”  

Figgy has lazy get-ups. Sleep until noon-ass get-ups. His get-ups don’t pay rent and eat all the food in the fridge. Deadbeat get-ups. But on the feet, Deiveson is a little heathen like Jeremy Stephens when he wants to be. He hasn’t unleashed his hands at bantamweight. He’s just been keeping them in a barn under a tarp like an old jalopy. Figgy has to restore his hands like a ‘69 Mustang. Pledge should sponsor Figgy and dust of his hands. Because Figgy still cracks like the 80s. Still cracks like fault lines in San Diego two weeks ago. Figgy has those Richter Scale hands. MF can still drop a 7.0 right hand on your chin real quick. I don’t often encourage engaging in a firefight, but that’s what Figgy needs to do. Classic sprawl and brawl. He needs to make this a fight and not a contest.  

Fantasy-wise, Figgy will have to overcome a big volume deficit. He averages less than three SLpM compared to Sandhagen’s five. Figgy will have to score knockdowns and create visible damage to steal close rounds. And he’ll have to stay upright. Sandhagen has eclipsed one hundred strikes four times in his career. While Figueiredo has only once in the first Brandon Moreno fight that ended in a draw. Sandhagen will be the massive (-450) favorite, and Figgy will be the (+350) mangy-ass dog. I don’t really see a path to victory for Figueiredo. He can’t out-grapple or out-strike Sandhagen. He has more one-punch power, but Sandhagen is a crafty striker who is hard to hit clean. The play for both fighters is a decision.   

The main event winning streak remains intact at five after Ian Garry nearly fumbled the bag in the final round. I’m not sure why Prates didn’t keep mashing the hammerfist button. But I’m not complaining. Number six feels like a given, but those are the ones you must be wary of. Sandhagen, sandcastle, Sandy, Utah: Cory Sandhagen in five rounds. Cory Sandhagen via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Sandhagen: TKO/KO (+330) Sub (+650) Dec (-150) 

Figueiredo: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+1600) Dec (+800)

Winner: Cory Sandhagen | Method: Decision

Reinier de Ridder (+265) vs. Bo Nickal (-330)

de Ridder: DK: $7.1k | Nickal: DK: $9.1k

Warning: This grappler vs. grappler matchup could lead to a tepid, fairly amateurish kickboxing match, in which case the ensuing smoke break will be brought to you by Mr. Nice Guys: “When life gets hard, pick up that card with the smiley face.” That being said, Bo Nickal is back. I’m still collecting nickels for all the times I hear Bo is a future champion. When it comes to buying Bo as a future champion, I’m just window-shopping. I ain’t buying it. Hit that 50 Cent “Window Shopper!” You just a window shopper, lookin’ at shit you can’t buy. I’m putting Bo Nickal on layaway like an inflatable pool at Walmart. Like Stevie Wonder at a Costco eye exam: “Sir, can you read the first line?” I don’t see it. But that doesn’t mean he won’t go on to kick ass in bulk. And the next ass to be kicked is on the horizon. 

Bo knows wrestling. Everybody knows that. Bo Nickal will run through you like Bo Jackson through a tunnel on Monday Night Football. But it’s his striking that will hold him back. Homie has one weapon on offense like the Dallas Cowboys: A nickel-plated Desert Eagle like Big Chris for a left hand. Hit that Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels! “The fact that you got ‘replica’ written on the side of your gun and the fact that I got Desert Eagle point five-oh written on the side of mine should precipitate your balls into shrinking along with your presence.” Wish is exactly what happens when Bo lets his left hand fly. Opponents shrivel and shrink like they’re taking a dip in the Pacific, to be specific, under the power of Bo’s overhand left. But that’s all he has on the feet. He’s Dak to Ceedee personified. BTW, Ceedee Lamb will have two hundred catches this year, barring injury, because who the hell else is Dak gonna throw the fookin’ ball to!? How Sway!   

But I digress. If Bo can get you to the mat, you’re in deep shit like Shannon Sharpe. You’d rather be Kanye’s cousin than have this guy on top of you. Bo has Bobby Boucher power doubles and slams like Monday Night Raw. And once you’re on the mat, raw, he’s gonna give it to ya. Raw like cocaine in Bolivia. But I have to pump the brakes. He has mostly only done that to blank profile pictures. Most of his dubs came against seasonal employees – mall Santas and Easter bunnies. Bo is 7-0 with two TKO/KOs and four subs and averages just over two and a half SLpM. Remember, you can strike on the mat too. But Bo is a submission hunter more than a striker from the top position. Bo can win a boring striking affair on the feet, using his left hand to keep de Ridder at bay. Against Paul Craig, Bo didn’t even attempt a takedown. He could do the same thing against the submission Van Gogh, Reinier de Ridder. But I think he will try to wrestle early and rely on striking late if he has to.   

Get the bugles ready. Reinier de Ridder TAPS like military funerals. You have to train like Stallone in Over the Top to strengthen your wrist to tap quicker, faster, and stronger before you fight de Ridder. Fook it! Hit that Kanye “Stronger!” Your wrists will be hooked up to electrodes, looking like Drago training. De Ridder taps you like free water cups. 

“Hey, buddy. Is that Sierra Mist in your cup?” 

“First, mind your business. Second, I ain’t your buddy, guy!” 

De Ridder will submit you like taxes in April. His special move is the Diddy Choke. It’s an inverted triangle choke from the bottom position. It looks like a real Jada and Will entanglement. They use pictures of you caught in the Diddy Choke to blackmail you. De Ridder is the Jeffrey You Know What of MMA.  

But de Ridder’s strikes like intentional walks. He strikes like WNBA players dunk. If the grappling cancels each other out, and we’re left with a kickboxing match, Bo will have the edge. De Ridder is nasty in the clinch, landing knees and elbows. But Bo is strong in the clinch as well and can use the position to take down de Ridder. I just don’t see de Ridder ending up in the top position and threatening Nickal on the mat. I’m not sure how de Ridder can win. He can outwork Bo on the feet. He averages just under three and a half SLpM and has a better mix of kicks and punches. But that’s about it. 

Bo will be the (-325) favorite, and de Ridder will be the (+260) ASPCA depressed commercial dog. Bo is the bigger finishing threat. Most likely on the feet, landing a big left hand. I could see him being the first to submit de Ridder if he can get him down early and create damage. But I like playing this for a decision. De Ridder is no chump from his back. At the very least, he will stay active from his back. I don’t see this fight providing many Fantasy points without a finish. Bo Nickal via decision. On wax.    

Props

Nickal: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+500) Dec (+215) 

de Ridder: TKO/KO (+1200) Sub (+750) Dec (+700)

Winner: Bo Nickal | Method: Decision

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-115) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (-105)

The Ponz: DK: $8.2k | D-Rod: DK:$8k

Hit the Happy Days theme song! “Sunday, Monday, happy days. Tuesday, Wednesday, happy days...” The Ponz is back, and he still hasn’t jumped the shark. He’s still cruising around the bay on a pair of water skis with his middle finger up to the Coast Guard. Now, hit those DMX adlibs. “Arf arf! Grr grr!” The walking DMX adlib, Daniel Rodriguez, is back. This is a dog-eat-dog affair. This matchup could be the main event for a Michael Vick FC card. This is a low-down dirty, ruthless, grimy scrap. This one could mess around and steal the fight of the night honors. "I have a stand-up banger, hold the takedowns and clinching. If your order is correct, please pull up to the second window."  

“The Ponz,” Santiago Ponzinibbio, is the King of the split decision loss. Three of his last four Ls came via split decision. The Ponz could easily be 5-1 in his previous six scraps. Instead, he’s two and four. But he’s coming in off a vintage TKO dub over Carlston Harris. The Ponz is still dropping that funky shit that makes the sucker homies mumble. When he lands a right hand, like a cookie, they all crumble. It’s like this and like that, and uh. Even after countless tours of duty, The Ponz still has those 151 proof hands. Everybody in the arena is getting tipsy. The Ponz will buy the bar out with hooks and overhands. He’ll have you walking the line like Deputy Clemmy Johnson pulled you over, “I want you to step, bump-bump, step, bum-bump.” 

Ponzinibbio is a bruiser on the feet. He’s a throwback to the midrange game – now a lost art in the age of jacking up haymakers and spinning shit from behind the arc. The Ponz will pull up on you from the free throw line extended and drop some two to three-punch combos. Cutting off the cage, trapping you, and unloading bombs is The Ponz’s M.O. The best way to beat the Ponz is to stay in the center of the Octagon and use lateral movement. The moment your feet stop moving, that’s that ass.   

But The Ponz has a major malfunction. He shows up late to work too often. He’s on a final warning. The Ponz almost always gives up the first round and has to mount a comeback. That’s the reason for all the split decisions. He’s literally on Brazilian time. There’s not a single watch in that country. There’s no such thing as making an appointment for anything in Brazil. They just show up unannounced everywhere. You gotta let The Ponz warm up in the driveway with the defrost on full blast for a half hour and hope nobody steals him in the process. This guy might be in title contention if he showed up for first rounds. The Ponz is 30-8 for his career with seventeen TKO/KOs and six subs, a solid finishing rate for nearly forty career fights.   

Hit that DMX “Get At Me Dog!” I know somebody has told you about fookin’ wit D. Win or lose, Daniel Rodriguez is a dog for life. It don’t matter if you bring your whole crew. It’s just a bigger piece of cake for D-Rod to chew a hole through. Fighting D-Rod is like starring in a Wrong Turn movie, the South-Central version. He fights like he’s jumping you in. Initiation ass-whoopins. It’s Blood In Blood Out when you step into the cage with D-Rod. He has always reminded me of Chris Leben from another down-ass vata. D-Rod has the same zombie-like shambling cadence on the feet while unloading left hands indiscriminately. He throws left hands like drive-bys and doesn’t care who gets caught in the crossfire. His left hand sprays like a water hose – like a double barrel blast, and he can’t handle the kick. D-Rod averages seven and a half LHpM (left hands per minute). 

But all those left hands make D-Rod a little predictable. And there lies his major malfunction. He’s too left-hand dependent. D-Rod is a classic Groundhog’s Day striker. It’s like he’s caught in a SciFi time loop and just keeps unloading the same strikes over and over. He needs to take the Gza’s advice and diversify his bonds. Can you teach an old dog a jab? If D-Rod learned how to use a jab to set up his left hand, he might take over the world. His path to victory will be the same as it always is, slugging it out. D-Rod will move forward and try to land a fight-ender before The Ponz does. That’s it. That’s the game plan. D-Rod is 18-5 with eight TKO/KOs and four subs. I have no idea where those subs came from.   

The Ponz will be the (-125) favorite, and D-Rod will be the (+105) live-ass dog. This will be a solid matchup for Fantasy scoring. The Ponz averages nearly five SLpM compared to D-Rod's seven and a half. These guys will trade nonstop for the duration with zero chance of the fight going to the mat. Both guys can eclipse the one-hundred strikes mark on any given Saturday night. Even though both have finishing power, I think it will go the distance. I’m torn on this one. These guys have very similar styles. Give me The Ponz. His punches will have a little more pop. Santiago Ponzinibbio via decision. On wax.

Props

The Ponz: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+2000) Dec (+180) 

D-Rod: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1600) Dec (+215)

Winner: Santiago Ponzinibbio | Method: Decision

Jeremy Stephens (-410) vs. Mason Jones (-585)

Stephens: DK: $6.7k | Mason Jones: DK: $9.5k

Who the fook is that guy? Jeremy Stephens is back for one night only. Grand opening to grand closing. Hit that Jay-Z “Encore!” After a four-year UFC hiatus, and a three-year MMA hiatus, Stephens will be making his return in his hometown of Des Moines, Iowa. Maybe I spoke too soon. This one right here could steal the whole fookin’ show. Mason Jones is also making his re-debut after being cut from the UFC in 2022. Since getting cut, he has gone 4-0 with three TKOs on the regional circuit. I have no idea how Mason Jones got cut in the first place. Go watch Mason Jones vs. Mike Davis and thank me later. That was an all-time great undercover banger. Mason lost that fight but rebounded to beat David Onama, who has been on a tear lately. I don’t know if this fight will make the final cut for the main card, but IDGAF! 

Hit that 21 Pilots “Heathens!” The Little Heathen is back! Nobody has had a tougher strength of schedule in the UFC than Jeremy Stephens. Murderer’s Row, and I ain’t talking about Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and them. I’m talking Gacy, Ramirez, Bundy, and them. This guy fought Gamrot, Calvin Kattar, Yair Rodriguez (twice), Zabit Magomedsharipov, Jose Aldo, and Josh Emmett... in a row! That’s a Suge Knight Death Row lineup. Hit that “Stranded on Death Row!” He’s the real-life John Coffey: Stephens walked the Green Mile but lived to talk about it. The power went out when they pulled the lever, and he’s still standing here screaming fook the Free World!  

But check it: Fighting all those guys wasn’t hardcore enough for Jeremy Stephens. MMA was just a gateway drug into the real hard shit, BKFC, bare-knuckle boxing. This guy went on a full Mickey O’Neil in Snatch character arc. “Do not knock him out, Jeremy... Now we are f**ked.” Stephens fights like a Gypsy bare-knuckle champ, aggressive and dirty. Stephens is mostly a pure boxer who breaks fundamental rules numbers one through ten because he knows his power can bail him out of any jam as if he has Sal Goodman on the payroll. Like Andy Dufresne is his cellmate. Stephens’ game plan has and never will change. He will walk forward and unload nothing but hooks and overhands. The fook is a jab? Since leaving MMA, Stephens went 0-1-1 in professional boxing, with the draw coming against Jose Aldo. And he went 3-0 in BKFC. Keep in mind that one fight in BKFC equals ten years off your life. Stephens’ MMA record is 29-21 with noineteen TKO/KOs and two subs. As his record suggests, he’s the epitome of kill-or-be-killed.   

M-A-$-E Jones is back. Seeing his name on the billing was kind of weird as I had found myself randomly thinking about him just days before. He was the one that got away. I wondered what the hell happened to that guy and looked up his Sherdog profile to see if he was still fighting. Jones had an unusual four-fight UFC stint. He went 1-2-1 with losses to Mike Davis and Ludovit Klein. He got drafted, went through basic, and went to war against Mike Davis. That was a Starship Troopers firefight. Fookin’ bugs crawling everywhere. Jones won a purple heart in his front lines debut. After getting honorably discharged, he reenlisted for another tour of duty. This fight right here is fighting fire with fire personified. This is Hell in a Cell, the UFC version.  

You have to wear a NASCAR flame retardant (not a derogatory term) suit when you fight Mason Jones. He only serves you well done. In every position, Jones is a grinder. On the feet, in the clinch, on the mat; it doesn’t matter. Jones is a human nail file. He leaves you looking like pencil shavings. Hit that Clipse "Grindin’!” As surely as you heard that drum beat just now, Mason Jones will take more than a pound of flesh win or lose. He has deceptively slick boxing, complete with nifty slip n’ rips. And he’s also a throwback to the early days of dirty boxing within tight quarters in the clinch. If he isn’t getting the better of the striking, he has some takedowns and top control tucked away in his fanny pack. Mason will stand and bang with Stephens early to test the waters. If shit gets a little sketchy, he will likely try to wrestle.   

Jones is 15-2 with seven TKO/KOs and three subs and is riding a four-fight dub streak since leaving the UFC. He will be the higher output striker, averaging five and a half SLpM compared to Little Heathen’s three. Jones will be the massive (-585) favorite, and Stephens will be the disrespectful (+410) live dog. Yes, live dog. He lacks technical prowess, for sure. But I don’t know anyone with a tougher schedule than Stephens has fought. The key for Stephens will be defending takedowns. Jones is good at making you think you’re in a boxing match before level-changing on your ass. Jones’ biggest advantage is that he has far fewer miles on him than Stephens. This is a dope little tip of the cap to Stephens in his hometown, the equivalent of an NFL player signing a one-day contract to retire with his long-time team. I think the play is a decision one way or another. A finish favors Jones grinding Stephens from the top position and in the pocket on the feet. Mason Jones via decision. Put it on wax.    

Props

Jones: TKO/KO (+150) Sub (+350) Dec (+165)  

Stephens: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+2800) Dec (+1000)

Winner: Mason Jones | Method: Decision

Montel Jackson (-195) vs. Daniel Marcos (+165)

Jackson: DK: $8.7k | Marcos: DK: $7.5k

Montel Jackson might as well quit messing around and change his name to Montel Jordan because that’s what I see every time I see his name. It’s an automatic reflex to type Jordan after the word Montel. Man, you better quit playing and hit that “This is How We Do It!” Going undercover and sneaking up on you is how Montel Jor-ackson does it. Like DJ Khaled, all he does is win, win, win, no matter what. My man is 8-2 in the UFC and riding a five-fight winning streak like a tipsy Betty riding a mechanical bull. In his most recent bout, he knocked the apostrophe off DaMon Blackshear’s name in under twenty seconds. He KO’d Blackshear quicker than Snoop Dogg can roll a blunt. But it won’t be that easy this time when Jordackson fights Daniel Marcos, a savvy, well-polished striker. Don’t let the recent emphatic KO fool you. Montel will make this a classic grappler vs. striker matchup. 

Montel is built like Olive Oil in the old Popeye cartoons and slicker than actual olive oil. My man is lanky and janky. And as you know, that’s a Tupac and Big L Deadly Combination. Don’t mess with dudes who are lanky and janky. They always have some shit up their sleeves. Montel will hit you with a deep-fried original recipe crispy one-two and level change in a blink. On the feet, Montel’s hand speed is the star of the show. He doesn’t have any fancy footwork or exceptional power, but he has Michael Johnson’s hand speed. Montel’s striking is just good enough that he doesn’t have to force his ground game. 

And his ground game is where he shines, even though his record wouldn’t suggest that. He is 14-2 with eight TKO/KOs and just one sub. Montel beats you up on the mat. He out-grappled the little Hogwarts Jiu-Jitsu wizard Rani Yahya, then slept him from the top position. Jordackson averages three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes and three and a half SLpM on the feet. He stays busy even from the top position. His path to victory against Marcos will be takedowns and damage. He’ll have to earn his takedowns because Marcos has an excellent eighty-eight percent takedown defense. Montel will use pressure and hand speed to trap Marcos against the cage, where he can tie up.    

Daniel Marcos is a walking Raekwon track. Something off the purple tape like Guillotine Swordz or Glaciers of Ice. Some of that Boom-Bap grimy shit. This guy is tougher than Wu Wear, Avirex leathers, and Tim boots. Montel has fought some good fighters, but Marcos might be the most complete striker he has faced. Marcos doesn’t make mistakes on the feet. You can’t hit him like he’s wearing Mormon underoos. You can’t hit him like he’s rocking a chastity belt at a Diddy party. Homie’s guard discipline is too strict. You have to be crafty and land strikes on the breaks between clinches and use intricate footwork to get the drop on him. His hands are more precise than they are fast. He’s Greg Maddux with his control. He can throw curves and sliders no matter what the count is - 3-0, 3-2, doesn't matter.  

I would give Marcos a slight edge in the stand-up. But we haven’t seen his ground game because nobody has been able to get him to the mat. That will change against Montel. More than takedown defense, Marcos will have to have force scrambles and get back to his feet without exposing his back. Marcos is 17-0 with eight TKO/KOs. Marcos is the split decision king. Two of his four UFC bouts came via split decision, Davey Grant and Adrian Yanez (Rob Font beat the ñ off Adrian’s name). Montel will be the (-200) favorite, and Marcos will be the (+170) undefeated live dog. The odds reflect the unknowns of Marcos’ ground game. It’s hard to imagine him keeping the fight standing for the duration. Like the dweeb from the Sixth Sense sees dead people, I see decisions. I see another decision here. I would give Montel Jordan the finishing edge on the mat. But both guys are supremely technical and hard to hit. Montel Jackson via decision. Wax on, wax off.  

Props

Jackson: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1000) Dec (+120)  

Marcos: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+2800) Dec (+300)

Winner: Montel Jackson | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Cameron Smotherman ($7.8k): The value menu looks a little meager this week. It looks like a school cafeteria menu with your choice of mystery meatloaf or rectangle pizza. I present rectangle pizza: Cameron Smotherman. This guy reminds me of fifth-grade Jamahal Hill. Or Babality Jamahal Hill. Smotherman registers Madden fifty-fives across the board in all physical attributes. But styles make matchups, and he will be fighting Serhiy Sidey, a very savvy kickboxer who takes many risks on the feet. Smotherman is more of a slow, plodding, heavy-handed striker who sits down on every punch. He will likely get outworked on the feet, but he has better one-punch power. If Sidey gets too out of pocket, engaging wildly, Smotherman can make him pay. Smotherman is coming in off a short-notice dub over Jake Hadley, a fight in which he landed nointey-six significant strikes. This matchup will likely produce similar striking stats.   

Daniel Marcos ($7.5k): If Daniel Marcos can stuff a couple takedowns, I like his chances on the feet against Montel Jord-ackson. Marcos averages nearly six SLpM and is a much cleaner combination striker than Montel. He also rocks an eighty-eight percent takedown defense, but it hasn’t been tested as it will be on Saturday night. I would be surprised if this fight ended in a finish, so win or lose, Marcos will have a full fifteen minutes to outwork Montel on the feet... If he can stay upright. I don’t see any real finishing threats on the Value Menu this week; a guy like Marcos is a conservative pick who can at least net you some solid striking stats, no matter the outcome.   

Reinier de Ridder ($7.1k): I don’t see Bo Nickal running through de Ridder. De Ridder has far more MMA experience. He was a Double-Champ for the best promotion not named the UFC, One FC. De Ridder can force a high pace against Nickal on the feet and forcing scrambles should he end up on his back. He’s also a nasty mother-shut-your-mouf in the clinch. De Ridder has the style to make this an ugly, grinding scrap the likes of which Nickal has yet to participate in. Pace will be the key for de Ridder. He has to make Nickal work and test his cardio. Remember, Nickal didn’t even attempt a takedown in his last bout against Paul Craig, a submission Banksy like de Ridder. If Nickal gases late, de Ridder has the proven experience to take advantage late.  

 $6k Clearance Rack

Ryan Loder ($6.9k): This guy won the most recent Ultimate Fighter and is a highly touted D-1 college wrestler. Loder vs. Bekoev will be a classic wrestler vs. striker matchup. Even though Bekoev won his short-notice debut against Zachary Reese, I haven't been impressed by him. If Loder gets him to the mat, it’s a wrap. If Loder gets stranded on the feet, it’s a wrap. But I was surprised to see Loder as the (+295) dog. That might be because Loder only has eight career fights while Bekoev is 19-3 with experience in multiple promotions. Loder will sell out for takedowns and won’t give up if they aren’t immediately successful. He can dominate the top position and rack up control time. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Ryan Loder (+295): Copy and paste. I think the odds for Loder vs. Bekoev are way off. This is much closer to a toss-up. I haven’t seen Azamat Bekoev operate from his back. At least early, that’s exactly what he will have to do. Loder implements a good mix of control and damage from the top. The big red flags for him are his striking (It’s terrible), and for a dominant grappler, he has no wins by submission. But he does have five TKOs/KOs. His ground and pound is formidable, and I’d rather have damage over submission.  

Reinier de Ridder (+265): It will be a rough night for the dogs. I’m taking some big risks this weekend. I think de Ridder can get this fight to the later minutes and test Bo Nickal’s cardio. Also, de Ridder’s special move, The Diddy Choke, an inverted triangle, is initiated from the bottom position. Even if Nickal gets de Ridder to the mat, he will have to mind his p’s and q’s and not make mistakes while looking for a sub. If this were a kickboxing match, this would be a toss-up or Nickal’s left hand would give him a slight advantage. If the odds were based solely on experience, the odds would be reversed. De Ridder’s path to victory is volume on the feet and pushing a hard pace wherever the fight goes.   

Jeremy Stephens (+425): This is the third consecutive week I’m taking the biggest dog on the card (I've struck out so far). I think these odds are way off. Mason Jones should be the favorite, but this is crazy. Stephens has been in the cage with your favorite fighter’s favorite fighter. And since leaving the UFC in 2021, he’s been boxing professionally. That includes bare-knuckle boxing. BKFC is for the real savages. If Stephens loses, it will likely be because Jones took him down and controlled him from the top. But if at any time the takedown well dries up on Jones, Stephens still has the power to steal the fight with one punch. He’s the only man to knock out Josh Emmett. Go back and watch that one. Finally, Stephens will be fighting in front of his hometown. That always accounts for something.   

Pick ‘Em

Cameron Smotherman (+115) vs. Serhiy Sidy (-135)  

Winner: Serhiy Sidy 

Method: Decision 

Yana Santos (+120) vs. Miesha Tate (-140)  

Winner: Miesha Tate 

Method: Decision 

Ryan Loder (+295) vs. Azamat Bekoev (-390)  

Winner: Ryan Loder 

Method: Decision 

Marina Rodriguez (+260) vs. Gillian Robertson (-320) 

Winner: Gillian Robertson 

Method: Decision 

Gaston Bolanos (-140) vs. Quang Li (+120) 

Winner: Gaston Bolanos 

Method: Decision 

Thomas Petersen (-270) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+220) 

Winner: Thomas Petersen 

Method: Decision 

Juliana Miller (+185) vs. Ivana Petrovic (-225) 

Winner: Juliana Miller 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.